Validations Queue

80,311 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 132 of 150, 500 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

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SimDocSourcePredDomainPrior
0.57manifold
2026-04-27
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57manifold
2026-04-23
238_023
Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag)
Dave Blundin
AI49%
0.57polymarket
2025-11-12
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.57gdelt
2026-04-30
TK11
Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)
10%
0.57gdelt
2026-04-30
240_026
Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks42%
0.57gdelt
2026-04-30
TK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-26
240_009
Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics45%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-30
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-03
236_013
Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa)
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics50%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-03
247_025
Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics50%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-03
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-03
247_025
Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics50%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-29
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57manifold
2026-04-30
241_011
By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill
Peter Diamandis
Labor/Jobs47%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-01
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-29
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.57polymarket
2025-06-19
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-12
FUT_009
Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in...
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitics42%
0.57polymarket
2026-03-09
241_042
Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance
Eric Schmidt
Geopolitics44%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-03-24
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57manifold
2026-05-01
TK11
Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)
10%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-02
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-02
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57
Magic vs. Pistons(market prob: 27%)
polymarket
2026-04-27
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
245_038
People buying clones of their dogs is a profitable ongoing consumer business (will persist)
Ben Lamm
Consumer41%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
245_038
People buying clones of their dogs is a profitable ongoing consumer business (will persist)
Ben Lamm
Consumer41%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-29
246_014
Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Space41%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-29
FUT_022
Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking...
Peter Zeihan
Macro/Economy72%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-02
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-28
240_009
Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics45%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-28
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-29
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-05
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-22
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-22
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-16
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-01
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-02
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
235_045
Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading).
Alex Wissner-Gross
Consumer42%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57manifold
2026-05-03
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.57manifold
2026-05-03
S_AGI_MID_2029
AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path
agi_general_capability35%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
246_024
Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door).
Dave Blundin
AI45%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-03
CMQ_004
AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027.
Dario Amodei
AI28%
0.57
Cavaliers vs. Pistons(market prob: 41%)
polymarket
2026-05-04
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-03
236_013
Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa)
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics50%
0.57polymarket
2025-06-19
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2025-06-19
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.57polymarket
2026-01-04
241_042
Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance
Eric Schmidt
Geopolitics44%
0.57polymarket
2026-01-04
FUT_008
China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani...
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitics30%
0.57manifold
2026-05-04
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57manifold
2026-05-04
SEM_036
World-class AI programmers will appear within 1-2 years (by 2027-2028).
Eric Schmidt
AI/Cognition70%
0.57manifold
2026-05-04
S_MARS_2028
Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)
mars_uncrewed_landing50%
0.57manifold
2026-05-04
235_005
AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound.
Dave Blundin
AI49%
0.57manifold
2026-05-04
246_007
SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks35%
0.57manifold
2026-05-03
TK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-03
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-01
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-03
238_037
Network effects, economics, and game theory will persist in AI agent economy (no singleton takeover)
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
FUT_022
Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking...
Peter Zeihan
Macro/Economy72%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-29
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-10
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-05-05
S_IPO_TRILLION_2028
First $1T+ IPO in 2028
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-05-05
242_007
Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value
Prediction markets
Markets/Stocks45%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-05-05
247_001
xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer
Peter Diamandis
AI42%
0.57
FDA ANDA219865: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — HETERO LABS LTD VI
fda
2026-04-30
233_019
Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback.
Joe Liemandt
Education35%
0.57
FDA ANDA219897: PIMOZIDE (PIMOZIDE) — NOVITIUM PHARMA
fda
2026-04-13
233_019
Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback.
Joe Liemandt
Education35%
0.57
FDA ANDA210275: POMALIDOMIDE (POMALIDOMIDE) — MYLAN
fda
2026-04-27
CMQ_009
Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity.
Demis Hassabis
AI60%
0.57
FDA NDA021366: CRESTOR (ROSUVASTATIN CALCIUM) — ASTRAZENECA
fda
2026-04-29
INF_053
Valar Atomics "Nuclear Gigasite" model — clustering hundreds of identical High-Temperature Gas Reactors (HTGR) on a single remote heavily-regulated site — will emerge as the dominant deployment architecture for advanced fission, superseding scattered S...
Isaiah Taylor
Energy28%
0.57
FDA ANDA213885: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — EUGIA PHARMA
fda
2026-04-27
CMQ_010
True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient.
Demis Hassabis
AI49%
0.57
FDA ANDA210671: MULTIPLE VITAMINS INJECTION PEDIATRIC (ASCORBIC ACID) — APOTEX
fda
2026-04-21
FUT_019
Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i...
Multi-Forecaster Synthesis
Biotech/Longevity31%
0.57
FDA ANDA217772: FOSFOMYCIN TROMETHAMINE (FOSFOMYCIN TROMETHAMINE) — AUCTA
fda
2026-04-09
COD_BIO_002
An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity50%
0.57
FDA ANDA205105: METHYLPHENIDATE HYDROCHLORIDE (METHYLPHENIDATE HYDROCHLORIDE) — IMPAX LABS INC
fda
2026-04-21
233_019
Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback.
Joe Liemandt
Education35%
0.57
FDA ANDA076780: ONDANSETRON HYDROCHLORIDE PRESERVATIVE FREE (ONDANSETRON HYDROCHLORIDE) — HIKMA FARMACEUTICA
fda
2026-04-08
233_019
Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback.
Joe Liemandt
Education35%
0.57
FDA NDA217388: WAINUA (AUTOINJECTOR) (EPLONTERSEN SODIUM) — ASTRAZENECA AB
fda
2026-04-15
IND_010
Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front...
Jared Isaacman
Biotech/Longevity43%
0.57
FDA NDA216964: IDVYNSO (DORAVIRINE) — MSD
fda
2026-04-20
INF_027
AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC.
Demis Hassabis
Biotech/Longevity38%
0.57github_release
2025-08-13
242_044
Base AI models becoming commodity; value migrates up the stack
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.57github_release
2024-03-08
COD_TECH_001
A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps
Codex Research Pack
Semis50%
0.57github_release
2025-06-04
COD_TECH_001
A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps
Codex Research Pack
Semis50%
0.57github_release
2024-09-04
240_020
New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI
Dave Blundin
AI46%
0.57github_release
2024-06-05
229_028
Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders.
Brett Adcock
Robotics69%
0.57github_release
2024-06-05
CMQ_044
Future data-center architectures optimized for agentic workflows may require 1:2 or even 2:1 CPU-to-GPU ratio (vs historical 1:12) to prevent GPU idle-waiting.
Morgan Stanley
AI/Compute65%
0.57github_release
2022-12-16
TK11
Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)
10%
0.57github_release
2020-11-10
CYB_009
Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par...
David Holz
AI77%
0.57github_release
2020-10-22
CYB_009
Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par...
David Holz
AI77%
0.57
Will GameStop acquire eBay?(market prob: 12%)
polymarket
2026-05-04
235_011
PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure.
Salim Ismail
Markets/Stocks47%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-28
FUT_008
China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani...
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitics30%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-06
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-06
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-06
CMQ_041
Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory71%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-05
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57manifold
2026-05-06
243_042
Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forward
Dara Khosrowshahi
Consumer51%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-04
CYB_009
Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par...
David Holz
AI77%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-05
CMQ_059
Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds.
Alex Finn
AI62%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-04
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-04
SPC_016
AI transforms Earth Observation satellites via on-orbit edge computing — parsing raw visual and radar data in space, downlinking only actionable insights rather than raw imagery; permanently handing tedious low-cognitive tasks to AI and reserving human...
Ben Lamm
Space72%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-05
229_045
Figure will not differentiate by vertical form factor—general-purpose humanoid is the bet.
Brett Adcock
Robotics28%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-05
231_004
The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI40%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-05
247_050
Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing
Alex Wissner-Gross
Biotech/Longevity44%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-04
235_040
Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Space26%
0.57
FDA ANDA215336: LEUPROLIDE ACETATE (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — AMNEAL
fda
2026-05-06
IND_010
Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front...
Jared Isaacman
Biotech/Longevity43%
0.57
FDA ANDA218897: VALSARTAN (VALSARTAN) — LAURUS
fda
2026-04-21
COD_BIO_002
An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity50%
0.57
FDA ANDA211489: DAPAGLIFLOZIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (DAPAGLIFLOZIN, METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA
fda
2026-04-06
CMQ_010
True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient.
Demis Hassabis
AI49%
0.57
FDA ANDA211846: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — SUN PHARM
fda
2026-04-27
CMQ_026
NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence.
Jensen Huang
Semis83%
0.57
FDA BLA761044: STELARA (USTEKINUMAB) — JANSSEN BIOTECH
fda
2026-04-15
CMQ_010
True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient.
Demis Hassabis
AI49%
0.57
FDA ANDA205772: CALCIPOTRIENE (CALCIPOTRIENE) — GLENMARK SPECLT
fda
2026-04-17
233_019
Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback.
Joe Liemandt
Education35%
0.57
FDA ANDA083158: LIDOCAINE HYDROCHLORIDE 0.4% IN DEXTROSE 5% (LIDOCAINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — HOSPIRA
fda
2026-04-10
COD_BIO_001
FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity47%
0.57
FDA NDA020944: CHILDREN'S ADVIL (IBUPROFEN) — HALEON US HOLDINGS
fda
2026-05-01
242_048
FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence
Alex Wissner-Gross
Biotech/Longevity36%
0.57
FDA ANDA207694: GLYCEROL PHENYLBUTYRATE (GLYCEROL PHENYLBUTYRATE) — LUPIN
fda
2026-04-30
245_009
Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption
Peter Diamandis
Biotech/Longevity45%
0.57
Cavaliers vs. Pistons(market prob: 41%)
polymarket
2026-05-04
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.57polymarket
2025-11-12
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-05
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-07
235_045
Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading).
Alex Wissner-Gross
Consumer42%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-01
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-06
230_040
AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly.
Peter Diamandis
AI50%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-06
AUT_017
Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin...
Jimmy Ba
AI65%
0.57
FDA ANDA218341: OXCARBAZEPINE (OXCARBAZEPINE) — UMEDICA LABS PVT
fda
2026-04-29
233_019
Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback.
Joe Liemandt
Education35%
0.57
FDA ANDA219473: CENOBAMATE (CENOBAMATE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LIMITED
fda
2026-04-28
233_019
Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback.
Joe Liemandt
Education35%
0.57
FDA ANDA218872: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — ACCORD HLTHCARE
fda
2026-04-27
COD_BIO_002
An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity50%
0.57github_release
2025-11-12
COD_SPC_005
NASA Dragonfly launches on Falcon Heavy in the July 2028 window
Codex Research Pack
Space33%
0.57github_release
2025-11-03
241_037
Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights
Eric Schmidt
AI49%
0.57github_release
2025-07-08
TK11
Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)
10%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-03
AI_002
Models matching the collective cognitive capacity of 'a country of geniuses in a datacenter' — acting simultaneously across all domains — could arrive as early as 2026 or 2027.
Dario Amodei
AI16%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-07
240_009
Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-07
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.57
test-a(market prob: 42%)
manifold
2026-05-08
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.57
test-a(market prob: 42%)
manifold
2026-05-08
233_019
Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback.
Joe Liemandt
Education35%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-07
AI_025
Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps.
Mark Cuban
AI60%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-07
AUT_017
Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin...
Jimmy Ba
AI65%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-07
ROB_027
The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ...
Nick Bostrom
AI40%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-07
231_004
The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI40%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-06
231_019
Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Other39%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-06
231_004
The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI40%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-06
248_037
State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI10%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-06
CMQ_062
Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum62%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-06
ROB_027
The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ...
Nick Bostrom
AI40%
0.57
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)(market prob: 53%)
polymarket
2026-05-08
238_028
Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins)
Emad Mostaque
Markets/Stocks31%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-07
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
CMQ_037
Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory24%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
240_009
Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics45%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-17
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57
Knicks vs. 76ers(market prob: 52%)
polymarket
2026-05-04
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-05
247_047
Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030
Peter Diamandis
Energy50%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
SEM_014
Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).
Jensen Huang
Manufacturing86%
0.57manifold
2026-05-08
236_016
College premium is quickly evaporating
Andrew Yang
Education51%
0.57manifold
2026-05-07
237_028
Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podcast this year.
Peter Diamandis
Media/Ads78%
0.57manifold
2026-05-07
238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI78%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-05-08
TK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-08
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-08
246_006
OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-09
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57
Golden Knights vs. Ducks(market prob: 50%)
polymarket
2026-05-03
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.57
Golden Knights vs. Ducks(market prob: 50%)
polymarket
2026-05-03
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-29
239_004
xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026
Elon Musk
AI40%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-05
242_036
Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks42%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-02
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-02
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-02
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-02
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57manifold
2026-05-11
COD_ROB_003
At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027
Codex Research Pack
Robotics33%
0.57manifold
2026-05-11
246_031
Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.57manifold
2026-05-11
235_005
AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound.
Dave Blundin
AI49%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-05-11
TK13
Biotech/Synbio Safety Event
15%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-05-11
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.57github_release
2019-06-14
238_022
From here forward, training data will be synthetic (pre-training era of human internet data is over)
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.57github_release
2026-01-14
S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026
Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026
robotaxi_deployment40%
0.57github_release
2022-12-27
S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026
Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026
robotaxi_deployment40%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-12
INF_039
Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v...
Alex Finn
Consumer77%
0.57
Ducks vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 40%)
polymarket
2026-05-08
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-06
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-06
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-30
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-12
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-12
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.57manifold
2026-05-12
240_050
US will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a job
Dave Blundin
Labor/Jobs49%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-05-12
SEM_014
Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).
Jensen Huang
Manufacturing86%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-05-12
CMQ_026
NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence.
Jensen Huang
Semis83%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-05-12
SEM_014
Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).
Jensen Huang
Manufacturing86%
0.57
FDA ANDA078885: LEUPROLIDE ACETATE (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — SUN PHARM
fda
2026-05-06
FUT_019
Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i...
Multi-Forecaster Synthesis
Biotech/Longevity31%
0.57
FDA ANDA072733: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — HIKMA
fda
2026-05-05
CMQ_010
True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient.
Demis Hassabis
AI49%
0.57github_release
2025-04-09
COD_SPC_005
NASA Dragonfly launches on Falcon Heavy in the July 2028 window
Codex Research Pack
Space33%
0.57github_release
2025-01-31
AUT_021
Defining software movement of 2026: startups building autonomous platforms specifically designed to clean/structure/continuously validate multimodal data — unstructured corporate sludge (PDFs, logs, videos, emails) causes autonomous agentic workflows t...
Marc Andreessen
AI57%
0.57
Spread: Pistons (-4.5)(market prob: 49%)
polymarket
2026-05-12
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-11
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-11
241_061
China robots will compete as replacement for dogs / low-cost consumer use (now; useful later)
Eric Schmidt
Robotics44%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-11
239_004
xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026
Elon Musk
AI40%
0.57
Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)(market prob: 46%)
polymarket
2026-05-05
238_028
Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins)
Emad Mostaque
Markets/Stocks31%
0.57manifold
2026-05-12
230_049
Big AI companies will own as much as they want up to the edge of antitrust triggers.
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-05-13
S_IPO_TRILLION_2028
First $1T+ IPO in 2028
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-12
229_042
Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task.
Brett Adcock
AI40%
0.57
Canadiens vs. Sabres(market prob: 49%)
polymarket
2026-05-11
240_009
Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics45%
0.57
Golden Knights vs. Ducks(market prob: 51%)
polymarket
2026-05-11
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-13
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-12
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57manifold
2026-05-14
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-05-14
CMQ_026
NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence.
Jensen Huang
Semis83%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-05-14
SEM_014
Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).
Jensen Huang
Manufacturing86%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-13
231_004
The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI40%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-12
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-14
246_054
Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Space37%
0.57polymarket
2025-10-09
232_013
Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.
Jimmy Ba
AI47%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-14
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-14
239_004
xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026
Elon Musk
AI40%
0.57manifold
2026-05-15
247_006
Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026
Peter Diamandis
AI50%
0.57manifold
2026-05-15
234_037
Civilizational left turns will hit us in the next 1-2 years
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics42%
0.57manifold
2026-05-15
232_013
Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.
Jimmy Ba
AI47%
0.57manifold
2026-05-15
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-05-15
S_IPO_TRILLION_2028
First $1T+ IPO in 2028
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-14
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.57
FDA ANDA215260: SUGAMMADEX (SUGAMMADEX) — TAMARANG SA
fda
2026-05-12
CMQ_037
Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory24%
0.57
FDA BLA761285: WEZLANA (USTEKINUMAB-AUUB) — AMGEN INC
fda
2026-05-12
SEM_026
Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Products71%
0.57
FDA ANDA078625: LAMOTRIGINE (LAMOTRIGINE) — RUBICON RESEARCH
fda
2026-05-12
CMQ_010
True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient.
Demis Hassabis
AI49%
0.57
FDA BLA761331: WEZLANA (USTEKINUMAB-AUUB) — AMGEN INC
fda
2026-05-12
232_036
AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE.
Ben Horowitz
Biotech/Longevity46%
0.57
FDA BLA761034: TECENTRIQ (ATEZOLIZUMAB) — GENENTECH INC
fda
2026-05-15
COD_BIO_002
An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity50%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-15
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-15
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-15
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.57manifold
2026-05-16
238_005
By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.57manifold
2026-05-16
229_011
The humanoid robotics market/economy will be roughly $50 trillion—roughly half of global GDP of human labor.
Brett Adcock
Markets/Stocks36%
0.57manifold
2026-05-16
234_035
Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics50%
0.57
FDA NDA210308: YONSA (ABIRATERONE ACETATE) — SUN PHARM
fda
2026-05-13
COD_BIO_002
An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity50%
0.57
FDA ANDA075471: LEUPROLIDE ACETATE (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — MEITHEAL
fda
2026-05-06
IND_010
Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front...
Jared Isaacman
Biotech/Longevity43%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-16
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-11
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-16
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-07
235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).
Dave Blundin
AI75%
0.57manifold
2026-05-17
236_045
Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics41%
0.57manifold
2026-05-17
230_049
Big AI companies will own as much as they want up to the edge of antitrust triggers.
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.57manifold
2026-05-16
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.57
Cavaliers vs. Knicks(market prob: 33%)
polymarket
2026-05-18
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-16
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-16
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57manifold
2026-05-18
246_025
Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026).
Sam Altman
AI47%
0.57manifold
2026-05-18
235_005
AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound.
Dave Blundin
AI49%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-05-18
COD_TECH_001
A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps
Codex Research Pack
Semis50%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-18
240_009
Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-07
241_037
Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights
Eric Schmidt
AI49%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-07
235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).
Dave Blundin
AI75%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-07
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-07
TK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12%
0.57manifold
2026-05-19
246_025
Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026).
Sam Altman
AI47%
0.57manifold
2026-05-18
241_005
2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year
Eric Schmidt
AI50%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-05-19
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-18
FUT_020
Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m...
Multi-Forecaster Synthesis
Labor/Jobs45%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-18
229_044
Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks.
Brett Adcock
AI35%
0.57
FDA ANDA205564: LEVOCETIRIZINE DIHYDROCHLORIDE (LEVOCETIRIZINE DIHYDROCHLORIDE) — MACLEODS PHARMS LTD
fda
2026-05-14
242_048
FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence
Alex Wissner-Gross
Biotech/Longevity36%
0.57github_release
2026-04-12
238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI78%
0.57
Spread: Thunder (-3.5)(market prob: 50%)
polymarket
2026-05-29
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-29
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57
Spread: Thunder (-2.5)(market prob: 53%)
polymarket
2026-05-30
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.57polymarket
2025-11-14
247_058
Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial
Peter Diamandis
AI71%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-30
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2025-11-14
247_058
Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial
Peter Diamandis
AI71%
0.57polymarket
2026-01-02
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.57manifold
2026-05-30
240_037
Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027
Peter Diamandis
Auto/Transport24%
0.57manifold
2026-05-29
INF_073
AI will become smarter than any single human by end of 2025 or 2026, and smarter than all of humanity combined by 2030 or 2031.
Elon Musk
AI48%
0.57manifold
2026-05-29
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57manifold
2026-05-29
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57manifold
2026-05-28
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.57manifold
2026-05-28
238_006
Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years)
Emad Mostaque
Labor/Jobs40%
0.57manifold
2026-05-28
S_AGI_SLOW_2031
AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path
agi_general_capability25%
0.57manifold
2026-05-27
238_005
By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.57manifold
2026-05-26
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57manifold
2026-05-25
AI_002
Models matching the collective cognitive capacity of 'a country of geniuses in a datacenter' — acting simultaneously across all domains — could arrive as early as 2026 or 2027.
Dario Amodei
AI16%
0.57manifold
2026-05-25
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57manifold
2026-05-25
235_005
AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound.
Dave Blundin
AI49%
0.57manifold
2026-05-24
230_049
Big AI companies will own as much as they want up to the edge of antitrust triggers.
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-05-29
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-05-29
SEM_017
TSMC will produce over 10M wafers/month total in 2026, including ~100K/mo at 2nm and ~200K/mo at 3nm.
TSMC (All-In Podcast analysis)
Semis59%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-28
242_043
AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-28
243_030
Multimodal delivery network will emerge: drones, sidewalk robots, bike-lane robots
Dara Khosrowshahi
Robotics31%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-28
INF_027
AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC.
Demis Hassabis
Biotech/Longevity38%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-28
FUT_020
Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m...
Multi-Forecaster Synthesis
Labor/Jobs45%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-28
248_023
Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models.
Dave Blundin
AI50%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-28
INF_072
There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently.
Demis Hassabis
AI40%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-28
CMQ_062
Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum62%
0.57
FDA ANDA078479: BRIMONIDINE TARTRATE (BRIMONIDINE TARTRATE) — APOTEX
fda
2026-05-20
248_030
FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics50%
0.57
FDA ANDA078479: BRIMONIDINE TARTRATE (BRIMONIDINE TARTRATE) — APOTEX
fda
2026-05-20
COD_BIO_002
An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity50%
0.57
FDA ANDA212682: NEBIVOLOL HYDROCHLORIDE (NEBIVOLOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — PRINSTON INC
fda
2026-05-20
CMQ_026
NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence.
Jensen Huang
Semis83%
0.57
FDA ANDA212371: EMPAGLIFLOZIN (EMPAGLIFLOZIN) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LIMITED
fda
2026-05-21
IND_010
Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front...
Jared Isaacman
Biotech/Longevity43%
0.57
FDA ANDA219869: LOSARTAN POTASSIUM AND HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE (HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE) — HETERO LABS LTD V
fda
2026-05-27
247_041
AI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional
Peter Diamandis
Biotech/Longevity55%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-25
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.57polymarket
2026-01-04
241_042
Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance
Eric Schmidt
Geopolitics44%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-28
234_039
Distant spectacular real estate will go up in value, not inner city
Dave Blundin
Real Estate50%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-03
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-31
235_008
Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-30
234_004
Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-31
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.57
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)(market prob: 52%)
polymarket
2026-05-31
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-26
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy50%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-16
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-01
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57manifold
2026-06-01
235_005
AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound.
Dave Blundin
AI49%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-06-01
240_034
Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028
Morgan Stanley
Energy47%
0.57
FDA NDA022561: MAVENCLAD (CLADRIBINE) — EMD SERONO INC
fda
2026-05-14
COD_BIO_002
An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity50%
0.57
FDA ANDA220366: LACOSAMIDE (LACOSAMIDE) — STERANCO HLTHCARE
fda
2026-05-21
242_048
FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence
Alex Wissner-Gross
Biotech/Longevity36%
0.57
FDA ANDA040054: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — HIKMA
fda
2026-05-27
233_019
Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback.
Joe Liemandt
Education35%
0.57
FDA ANDA220437: TIVOZANIB (TIVOZANIB) — SANDOZ INC
fda
2026-05-14
IND_010
Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front...
Jared Isaacman
Biotech/Longevity43%
0.57github_release
2021-12-16
CMQ_058
Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency.
Alex Finn
AI/Compute59%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-02
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-02
241_045
Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win
Eric Schmidt
AI50%
0.57polymarket
2025-11-14
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.57
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 47%)
polymarket
2026-05-27
246_006
OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-29
239_003
We are currently in AI hard takeoff
Elon Musk
AI47%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-01
CMQ_058
Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency.
Alex Finn
AI/Compute59%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-01
ROB_013
Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g...
Jimmy Ba
Robotics62%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-01
CMQ_058
Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency.
Alex Finn
AI/Compute59%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-31
SEM_022
FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development.
Dave Blundin
AI/Architecture65%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-31
234_048
Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI41%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-31
IND_005
Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~...
Ben Lamm
Biotech/Longevity33%
0.57
FDA NDA219423: WIDAPLIK (AMLODIPINE BESYLATE) — AZURITY
fda
2026-05-28
CMQ_009
Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity.
Demis Hassabis
AI60%
0.57github_release
2026-02-12
CYB_009
Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par...
David Holz
AI77%
0.57
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)(market prob: 56%)
polymarket
2026-05-31
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57
Spread: Spurs (-2.5)(market prob: 59%)
polymarket
2026-05-31
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57manifold
2026-06-03
INF_047
2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex.
Chamath Palihapitiya
Macro/Economy31%
0.57manifold
2026-06-01
SEM_030
S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap).
Mike Wilson
Capital Markets43%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-06-03
TK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-02
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-03
235_025
Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell.
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-14
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.57manifold
2026-06-04
248_007
We will see an explosion of AI-driven pop-up shops, retail venues, and malls orchestrated by AI.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI37%
0.57manifold
2026-06-04
238_005
By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.57manifold
2026-06-03
235_005
AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound.
Dave Blundin
AI49%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-06-04
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-06-04
TK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-30
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-30
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-05
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-04
247_036
Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029
Google
AI46%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-01
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57manifold
2026-06-05
IND_025
Global economy enters 'Agentic Era' in 2027 — AI comprehensively automates knowledge work by 2026, forcing structural redesign of the modern corporation. Future labor force consists of highly agile 'ExOs' (Exponential Organizations) leveraging open-sou...
Salim Ismail
Macro/Economy23%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-04
CMQ_055
Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes.
Brett Adcock
Robotics29%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-04
FUT_020
Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m...
Multi-Forecaster Synthesis
Labor/Jobs45%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-04
AI_025
Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps.
Mark Cuban
AI60%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-04
COD_BIO_001
FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity47%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-04
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-04
AI_029
Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer.
Morgan Stanley
AI57%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-03
S_AGI_SLOW_2031
AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path
agi_general_capability25%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-04
IND_005
Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~...
Ben Lamm
Biotech/Longevity33%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-04
231_004
The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI40%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-04
CMQ_062
Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum62%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-04
SEM_047
At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run.
Jimmy Ba
AI/Hardware71%
0.57
FDA NDA208400: XATMEP (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — AZURITY
fda
2026-05-27
COD_TECH_001
A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps
Codex Research Pack
Semis50%
0.57
FDA NDA202293: FARXIGA (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — ASTRAZENECA AB
fda
2026-06-03
CMQ_026
NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence.
Jensen Huang
Semis83%
0.57github_release
2025-04-07
240_020
New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI
Dave Blundin
AI46%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-06
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks45%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-01
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-06
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.57manifold
2026-06-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57manifold
2026-06-06
244_033
Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail
Dara Khosrowshahi
Markets/Stocks51%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-06-05
TK13
Biotech/Synbio Safety Event
15%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-06-05
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-06-05
247_001
xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer
Peter Diamandis
AI42%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-06-05
SEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets68%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-28
242_019
EVTOL autonomy will come within ~2 years after piloted version
Peter Diamandis
Auto/Transport50%
0.57manifold
2026-06-07
241_036
No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war
Eric Schmidt
AI51%
0.57manifold
2026-06-06
235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).
Dave Blundin
AI75%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-02
244_008
If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up
Dara Khosrowshahi
Other53%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-05
ROB_013
Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g...
Jimmy Ba
Robotics62%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-09
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-07
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-06
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-06
CMQ_041
Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory71%
0.57manifold
2026-06-08
242_042
Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest
Dave Blundin
AI50%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-06-08
247_001
xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer
Peter Diamandis
AI42%
0.57
FDA BLA761460: DECNUPAZ (PIVEKIMAB SUNIRINE-PVZY) — ABBVIE INC
fda
2026-05-27
233_019
Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback.
Joe Liemandt
Education35%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-21
TK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-09
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-30
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-07
CMQ_013
A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher.
Leopold Aschenbrenner
AI40%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-07
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-09
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.57manifold
2026-06-09
235_005
AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound.
Dave Blundin
AI49%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-08
CMQ_058
Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency.
Alex Finn
AI/Compute59%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-08
FUT_003
Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-08
230_029
Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI43%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-08
SEM_021
Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs.
Dave Blundin
AI/China45%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-07
CYB_015
The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen resumes generated by other bot agents, completely removing the human connection required to accurately assess contextual experience — bot-on-bot recursive...
Emad Mostaque
Labor/Jobs86%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-08
231_013
Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI23%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-08
242_043
AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-08
230_008
AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI40%
0.57
FDA ANDA077345: SERTRALINE HYDROCHLORIDE (SERTRALINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — HERITAGE PHARMA AVET
fda
2026-06-03
COD_BIO_001
FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity47%
0.57polymarket
2026-03-30
241_041
Biological and nuclear attacks spawned by AI are real dangers
Eric Schmidt
AI39%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-27
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-08
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.57polymarket
2026-01-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-13
241_045
Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win
Eric Schmidt
AI50%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-09
FUT_019
Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i...
Multi-Forecaster Synthesis
Biotech/Longevity31%
0.57
Partizan vs. BC Dubai(market prob: 100%)
polymarket
2026-06-04
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-09
244_012
Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point
Dara Khosrowshahi
Markets/Stocks41%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-09
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-03-30
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy50%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-09
FUT_020
Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m...
Multi-Forecaster Synthesis
Labor/Jobs45%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-08
238_070
Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced)
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-08
230_029
Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI43%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-08
CYB_009
Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par...
David Holz
AI77%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-09
241_019
AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet
Eric Schmidt
AI51%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-08
239_032
Progress in AI will continue as series of overlapping S-curves
Elon Musk
AI40%
0.57
FDA ANDA204237: RABEPRAZOLE SODIUM (RABEPRAZOLE SODIUM) — RUBICON RESEARCH
fda
2026-06-05
COD_BIO_002
An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity50%
0.57polymarket
2026-01-02
246_006
OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks45%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-09
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-08
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-21
TK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12%
0.57manifold
2026-06-11
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-06-11
CMQ_026
NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence.
Jensen Huang
Semis83%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-06-11
SEM_014
Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).
Jensen Huang
Manufacturing86%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-06-11
SPC_002
A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o...
Morgan Stanley
Markets/Stocks45%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-06-10
SEM_028
Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets61%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-06-10
CMQ_026
NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence.
Jensen Huang
Semis83%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-06-10
SEM_014
Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).
Jensen Huang
Manufacturing86%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-06-10
242_034
AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x)
Chamath Palihapitiya
Markets/Stocks38%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-06-10
CMQ_033
Global HBM demand will reach 32 billion Gb by 2026 — HBM is the absolute critical resource constraint in the AI compute supply chain.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory75%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-10
FUT_020
Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m...
Multi-Forecaster Synthesis
Labor/Jobs45%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-09
COD_BIO_001
FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity47%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-10
234_045
Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances
Alex Wissner-Gross
Space37%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-10
247_050
Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing
Alex Wissner-Gross
Biotech/Longevity44%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-09
235_025
Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell.
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks45%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-18
243_005
There will be many many winners in the autonomous space
Dara Khosrowshahi
Auto/Transport47%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-12
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-08
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-08
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-11
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-17
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-11
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-21
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-06-12
TK13
Biotech/Synbio Safety Event
15%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-06-12
SEM_028
Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets61%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-11
ROB_027
The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ...
Nick Bostrom
AI40%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-11
ROB_027
The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ...
Nick Bostrom
AI40%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-11
229_044
Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks.
Brett Adcock
AI35%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-11
AI_015
Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers.
Emad Mostaque
AI35%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-12
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-10
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-08
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-09
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-09
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-11
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.57manifold
2026-06-13
239_022
Future AI will care about power/mass rather than human currency
Elon Musk
AI36%
0.57github_release
2022-06-10
CYB_003
Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI...
Alex Finn
AI55%
0.57github_release
2018-06-15
CYB_003
Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI...
Alex Finn
AI55%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-08
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-13
CMQ_004
AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027.
Dario Amodei
AI28%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-09
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-13
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-13
246_014
Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Space41%
0.57
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)(market prob: 32%)
polymarket
2026-06-12
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57manifold
2026-06-14
240_043
CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions
Peter Diamandis
Labor/Jobs55%
0.57manifold
2026-06-14
231_046
Over the next 10 years humanity will live through top 50 science fiction plots simultaneously.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-12
FUT_009
Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in...
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitics42%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-12
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-24
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57manifold
2026-06-15
234_026
AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI40%
0.57manifold
2026-06-15
TK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12%
0.57manifold
2026-06-15
238_005
By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-06-15
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-06-15
248_019
US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Space12%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-06-15
SEM_017
TSMC will produce over 10M wafers/month total in 2026, including ~100K/mo at 2nm and ~200K/mo at 3nm.
TSMC (All-In Podcast analysis)
Semis59%
0.57github_release
2025-11-28
236_028
AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately
Andrew Yang
Consumer51%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-15
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-09
238_049
Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028
Peter Diamandis
Auto/Transport55%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-13
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.57polymarket
2026-03-25
SEM_030
S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap).
Mike Wilson
Capital Markets43%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-30
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-25
235_006
By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent.
Dave Blundin
AI50%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-15
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-06-16
TK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-06-16
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-06-16
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-06-16
SEM_028
Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets61%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-14
232_008
Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms.
Ben Horowitz
AI46%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-14
235_037
Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-15
241_019
AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet
Eric Schmidt
AI51%
0.57arxiv
2026-06-15
AUT_003
'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch...
Andrej Karpathy
AI87%
0.57
FDA ANDA077083: LEFLUNOMIDE (LEFLUNOMIDE) — BARR
fda
2026-06-02
TK11
Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)
10%
0.57
FDA NDA214373: BRENZAVVY (BEXAGLIFLOZIN) — THERACOSBIO
fda
2026-06-03
IND_010
Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front...
Jared Isaacman
Biotech/Longevity43%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-17
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-12
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-24
241_042
Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance
Eric Schmidt
Geopolitics44%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-13
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-18
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-09
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-16
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5(market prob: 4%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.57polymarket
2026-06-17
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%