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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.57 | Sub-1:58 marathon before LA Olympics?(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-23 | 238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.57 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.57 | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: GTZ Esports vs Dream Esports (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Penalty shootout in champions league semi final? 2025/2026 season(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-12 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | Iran leadership change by December 31?(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2026-03-09 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.57 | Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Iran leadership change by June 30?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by May 31? [Polymarket](market prob: 52%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5)(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Magic vs. Pistons(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: FURIA Esports vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 245_038 People buying clones of their dogs is a profitable ongoing consumer business (will persist) Ben Lamm | Consumer | 41% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.57 | LoL: FURIA Esports vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 245_038 People buying clones of their dogs is a profitable ongoing consumer business (will persist) Ben Lamm | Consumer | 41% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: FURIA Esports vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 246_014 Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 41% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-29 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | ||
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Cloud9 vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular Season(market prob: 83%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Cloud9 vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular Season(market prob: 83%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.57 | Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-02?(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-04-05 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.57 | Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2025-07-16 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2025-12-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | Valorant: LOUD vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-03 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-03 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | LoL: Shifters vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Shifters vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-03 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | ||
| 0.57 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-04 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.57 | Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-04 | FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 30% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | SEM_036 World-class AI programmers will appear within 1-2 years (by 2027-2028). Eric Schmidt | AI/Cognition | 70% | ||
| 0.57 | Will MIT accept anyone from their 2026 waitlist?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) | mars_uncrewed_landing | 50% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 246_007 SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-03 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.57 | Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.57 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.57 | Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 238_037 Network effects, economics, and game theory will persist in AI agent economy (no singleton takeover) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-04 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | ||
| 0.57 | Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2025-07-10 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-05-05 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-05-05 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-05-05 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA219865: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — HETERO LABS LTD VI | fda 2026-04-30 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA219897: PIMOZIDE (PIMOZIDE) — NOVITIUM PHARMA | fda 2026-04-13 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA210275: POMALIDOMIDE (POMALIDOMIDE) — MYLAN | fda 2026-04-27 | CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis | AI | 60% | |
| 0.57 | FDA NDA021366: CRESTOR (ROSUVASTATIN CALCIUM) — ASTRAZENECA | fda 2026-04-29 | INF_053 Valar Atomics "Nuclear Gigasite" model — clustering hundreds of identical High-Temperature Gas Reactors (HTGR) on a single remote heavily-regulated site — will emerge as the dominant deployment architecture for advanced fission, superseding scattered S... Isaiah Taylor | Energy | 28% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA213885: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — EUGIA PHARMA | fda 2026-04-27 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA210671: MULTIPLE VITAMINS INJECTION PEDIATRIC (ASCORBIC ACID) — APOTEX | fda 2026-04-21 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA217772: FOSFOMYCIN TROMETHAMINE (FOSFOMYCIN TROMETHAMINE) — AUCTA | fda 2026-04-09 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA205105: METHYLPHENIDATE HYDROCHLORIDE (METHYLPHENIDATE HYDROCHLORIDE) — IMPAX LABS INC | fda 2026-04-21 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA076780: ONDANSETRON HYDROCHLORIDE PRESERVATIVE FREE (ONDANSETRON HYDROCHLORIDE) — HIKMA FARMACEUTICA | fda 2026-04-08 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.57 | FDA NDA217388: WAINUA (AUTOINJECTOR) (EPLONTERSEN SODIUM) — ASTRAZENECA AB | fda 2026-04-15 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.57 | FDA NDA216964: IDVYNSO (DORAVIRINE) — MSD | fda 2026-04-20 | INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis | Biotech/Longevity | 38% | |
| 0.57 | github_release 2025-08-13 | 242_044 Base AI models becoming commodity; value migrates up the stack Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | github_release 2024-03-08 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | github_release 2025-06-04 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | github_release 2024-09-04 | 240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | github_release 2024-06-05 | 229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 69% | ||
| 0.57 | github_release 2024-06-05 | CMQ_044 Future data-center architectures optimized for agentic workflows may require 1:2 or even 2:1 CPU-to-GPU ratio (vs historical 1:12) to prevent GPU idle-waiting. Morgan Stanley | AI/Compute | 65% | ||
| 0.57 | github_release 2022-12-16 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.57 | github_release 2020-11-10 | CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz | AI | 77% | ||
| 0.57 | github_release 2020-10-22 | CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz | AI | 77% | ||
| 0.57 | Will GameStop acquire eBay?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail | Markets/Stocks | 47% | |
| 0.57 | Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-10?(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 84%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 30% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-06 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | ||
| 0.57 | Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will I do something interesting this week according to me(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 243_042 Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forward Dara Khosrowshahi | Consumer | 51% | |
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz | AI | 77% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | CMQ_059 Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds. Alex Finn | AI | 62% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | SPC_016 AI transforms Earth Observation satellites via on-orbit edge computing — parsing raw visual and radar data in space, downlinking only actionable insights rather than raw imagery; permanently handing tedious low-cognitive tasks to AI and reserving human... Ben Lamm | Space | 72% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | 229_045 Figure will not differentiate by vertical form factor—general-purpose humanoid is the bet. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 28% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | 247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | 235_040 Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 26% | ||
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA215336: LEUPROLIDE ACETATE (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — AMNEAL | fda 2026-05-06 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA218897: VALSARTAN (VALSARTAN) — LAURUS | fda 2026-04-21 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA211489: DAPAGLIFLOZIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (DAPAGLIFLOZIN, METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA | fda 2026-04-06 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA211846: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — SUN PHARM | fda 2026-04-27 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | |
| 0.57 | FDA BLA761044: STELARA (USTEKINUMAB) — JANSSEN BIOTECH | fda 2026-04-15 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA205772: CALCIPOTRIENE (CALCIPOTRIENE) — GLENMARK SPECLT | fda 2026-04-17 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA083158: LIDOCAINE HYDROCHLORIDE 0.4% IN DEXTROSE 5% (LIDOCAINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — HOSPIRA | fda 2026-04-10 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | |
| 0.57 | FDA NDA020944: CHILDREN'S ADVIL (IBUPROFEN) — HALEON US HOLDINGS | fda 2026-05-01 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA207694: GLYCEROL PHENYLBUTYRATE (GLYCEROL PHENYLBUTYRATE) — LUPIN | fda 2026-04-30 | 245_009 Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | Santos: Miguel Tobon vs Facundo Mena(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba | AI | 65% | ||
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA218341: OXCARBAZEPINE (OXCARBAZEPINE) — UMEDICA LABS PVT | fda 2026-04-29 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA219473: CENOBAMATE (CENOBAMATE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LIMITED | fda 2026-04-28 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA218872: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — ACCORD HLTHCARE | fda 2026-04-27 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.57 | github_release 2025-11-12 | COD_SPC_005 NASA Dragonfly launches on Falcon Heavy in the July 2028 window Codex Research Pack | Space | 33% | ||
| 0.57 | github_release 2025-11-03 | 241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | github_release 2025-07-08 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-03 | AI_002 Models matching the collective cognitive capacity of 'a country of geniuses in a datacenter' — acting simultaneously across all domains — could arrive as early as 2026 or 2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 16% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-07 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | ||
| 0.57 | test-a(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | test-a(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban | AI | 60% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba | AI | 65% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 248_037 State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 10% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum | 62% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | Spread: Thunder (-8.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.57 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Belinda Bencic vs Anna Kalinskaya(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 24% | |
| 0.57 | Game Handicap: SEN (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2025-12-17 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Knicks vs. 76ers(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 247_047 Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030 Peter Diamandis | Energy | 50% | |
| 0.57 | New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang | Manufacturing | 86% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 236_016 College premium is quickly evaporating Andrew Yang | Education | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | @MarySmith attends Manifest '26?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 237_028 Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podcast this year. Peter Diamandis | Media/Ads | 78% | |
| 0.57 | @MarySmith attends Manifest '26?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 78% | |
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-05-08 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.57 | Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Golden Knights vs. Ducks(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Golden Knights vs. Ducks(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will Sean Strickland become UFC champion in 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2025-12-29 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 35m?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: NRG vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: NRG vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Sinners vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 91%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Luke Wang PEA Class of 2027 make at least 1 HYPSM(market prob: 92%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 33% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 246_031 Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-05-11 | TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event | — | 15% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-05-11 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | github_release 2019-06-14 | 238_022 From here forward, training data will be synthetic (pre-training era of human internet data is over) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | github_release 2026-01-14 | S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026 Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026 | robotaxi_deployment | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | github_release 2022-12-27 | S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026 Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026 | robotaxi_deployment | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn | Consumer | 77% | |
| 0.57 | Ducks vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13?(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 78%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 240_050 US will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a job Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-05-12 | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang | Manufacturing | 86% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-05-12 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-05-12 | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang | Manufacturing | 86% | ||
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA078885: LEUPROLIDE ACETATE (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — SUN PHARM | fda 2026-05-06 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA072733: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — HIKMA | fda 2026-05-05 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.57 | github_release 2025-04-09 | COD_SPC_005 NASA Dragonfly launches on Falcon Heavy in the July 2028 window Codex Research Pack | Space | 33% | ||
| 0.57 | github_release 2025-01-31 | AUT_021 Defining software movement of 2026: startups building autonomous platforms specifically designed to clean/structure/continuously validate multimodal data — unstructured corporate sludge (PDFs, logs, videos, emails) causes autonomous agentic workflows t... Marc Andreessen | AI | 57% | ||
| 0.57 | Spread: Pistons (-4.5)(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: ZYB Esport vs Vitality.Bee (BO3) - LFL Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 241_061 China robots will compete as replacement for dogs / low-cost consumer use (now; useful later) Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 44% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 230_049 Big AI companies will own as much as they want up to the edge of antitrust triggers. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-05-13 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-12 | 229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | Canadiens vs. Sabres(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Golden Knights vs. Ducks(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: PlayTime vs REKONIX (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-05-14 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-05-14 | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang | Manufacturing | 86% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-13 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 246_054 Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Rae Huang win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: GTZ Esports vs Francesinhas (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs ex-HEROIC (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 234_037 Civilizational left turns will hit us in the next 1-2 years Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-15 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-05-15 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-14 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA215260: SUGAMMADEX (SUGAMMADEX) — TAMARANG SA | fda 2026-05-12 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 24% | |
| 0.57 | FDA BLA761285: WEZLANA (USTEKINUMAB-AUUB) — AMGEN INC | fda 2026-05-12 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 71% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA078625: LAMOTRIGINE (LAMOTRIGINE) — RUBICON RESEARCH | fda 2026-05-12 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.57 | FDA BLA761331: WEZLANA (USTEKINUMAB-AUUB) — AMGEN INC | fda 2026-05-12 | 232_036 AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE. Ben Horowitz | Biotech/Longevity | 46% | |
| 0.57 | FDA BLA761034: TECENTRIQ (ATEZOLIZUMAB) — GENENTECH INC | fda 2026-05-15 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Dan complain about the cost of NYC unprompted?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 229_011 The humanoid robotics market/economy will be roughly $50 trillion—roughly half of global GDP of human labor. Brett Adcock | Markets/Stocks | 36% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Thomas Massie say Trump should be impeached before the end of 2026?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.57 | FDA NDA210308: YONSA (ABIRATERONE ACETATE) — SUN PHARM | fda 2026-05-13 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA075471: LEUPROLIDE ACETATE (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — MEITHEAL | fda 2026-05-06 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.57 | San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Geneva Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Casper Ruud(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-07 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 41% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 230_049 Big AI companies will own as much as they want up to the edge of antitrust triggers. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | Keir Starmer out before September 1 2026?(market prob: 86%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | |
| 0.57 | Cavaliers vs. Knicks(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Geneva Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Raphael Collignon(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2025-07-16 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Russia control Konstantinovka by the end of November 2026?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-05-18 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?(market prob: 86%) | polymarket 2026-04-07 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: paiN vs M80 (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: paiN vs M80 (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | |
| 0.57 | Will there be more than 100 cases of ebola in the US in 2026?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.57 | Will the 2026 NBA Finals reach a Game 6?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-05-19 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-18 | FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-18 | 229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA205564: LEVOCETIRIZINE DIHYDROCHLORIDE (LEVOCETIRIZINE DIHYDROCHLORIDE) — MACLEODS PHARMS LTD | fda 2026-05-14 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | |
| 0.57 | github_release 2026-04-12 | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 78% | ||
| 0.57 | Spread: Thunder (-3.5)(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.57 | Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Thunder (-2.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.57 | Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis | AI | 71% | |
| 0.57 | Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis | AI | 71% | |
| 0.57 | Will Victoria Mboko win the 2026 Women’s French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Will Florida PALM go live as scheduled on January 11, 2027?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 240_037 Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 24% | |
| 0.57 | Will The Democrats Win Every Presidential Election from 2028 to 2040?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | INF_073 AI will become smarter than any single human by end of 2025 or 2026, and smarter than all of humanity combined by 2030 or 2031. Elon Musk | AI | 48% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-29 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-28 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 238_006 Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) Emad Mostaque | Labor/Jobs | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-28 | S_AGI_SLOW_2031 AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path | agi_general_capability | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-25 | AI_002 Models matching the collective cognitive capacity of 'a country of geniuses in a datacenter' — acting simultaneously across all domains — could arrive as early as 2026 or 2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 16% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 230_049 Big AI companies will own as much as they want up to the edge of antitrust triggers. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-05-29 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-05-29 | SEM_017 TSMC will produce over 10M wafers/month total in 2026, including ~100K/mo at 2nm and ~200K/mo at 3nm. TSMC (All-In Podcast analysis) | Semis | 59% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | 243_030 Multimodal delivery network will emerge: drones, sidewalk robots, bike-lane robots Dara Khosrowshahi | Robotics | 31% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis | Biotech/Longevity | 38% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | 248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum | 62% | ||
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA078479: BRIMONIDINE TARTRATE (BRIMONIDINE TARTRATE) — APOTEX | fda 2026-05-20 | 248_030 FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA078479: BRIMONIDINE TARTRATE (BRIMONIDINE TARTRATE) — APOTEX | fda 2026-05-20 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA212682: NEBIVOLOL HYDROCHLORIDE (NEBIVOLOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — PRINSTON INC | fda 2026-05-20 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA212371: EMPAGLIFLOZIN (EMPAGLIFLOZIN) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LIMITED | fda 2026-05-21 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA219869: LOSARTAN POTASSIUM AND HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE (HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE) — HETERO LABS LTD V | fda 2026-05-27 | 247_041 AI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 55% | |
| 0.57 | Game Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+2.5)(market prob: 81%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-04 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.57 | Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 67m and 73m?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 234_039 Distant spectacular real estate will go up in value, not inner city Dave Blundin | Real Estate | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi(market prob: 81%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 234_004 Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Spurs (-4.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-01 | 240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley | Energy | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | FDA NDA022561: MAVENCLAD (CLADRIBINE) — EMD SERONO INC | fda 2026-05-14 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA220366: LACOSAMIDE (LACOSAMIDE) — STERANCO HLTHCARE | fda 2026-05-21 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA040054: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — HIKMA | fda 2026-05-27 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA220437: TIVOZANIB (TIVOZANIB) — SANDOZ INC | fda 2026-05-14 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.57 | github_release 2021-12-16 | CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn | AI/Compute | 59% | ||
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: BIG vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: BIG vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Valorant: QoR vs FlyQuest (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk | AI | 47% | |
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn | AI/Compute | 59% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn | AI/Compute | 59% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-31 | SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin | AI/Architecture | 65% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-31 | 234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-31 | IND_005 Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~... Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 33% | ||
| 0.57 | FDA NDA219423: WIDAPLIK (AMLODIPINE BESYLATE) — AZURITY | fda 2026-05-28 | CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis | AI | 60% | |
| 0.57 | github_release 2026-02-12 | CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz | AI | 77% | ||
| 0.57 | Spread: Spurs (-3.5)(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Spurs (-2.5)(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Will the ECB raise interest rates at its June 11, 2026 meeting?(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-01 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-03 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.57 | Makarska: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Noma Noha Akugue(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5)(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 248_007 We will see an explosion of AI-driven pop-up shops, retail venues, and malls orchestrated by AI. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-04 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-04 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.57 | Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | |
| 0.57 | T20 Blast: Yorkshire vs Lancashire(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-05 | IND_025 Global economy enters 'Agentic Era' in 2027 — AI comprehensively automates knowledge work by 2026, forcing structural redesign of the modern corporation. Future labor force consists of highly agile 'ExOs' (Exponential Organizations) leveraging open-sou... Salim Ismail | Macro/Economy | 23% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 29% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban | AI | 60% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley | AI | 57% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | S_AGI_SLOW_2031 AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path | agi_general_capability | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | IND_005 Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~... Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 33% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum | 62% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba | AI/Hardware | 71% | ||
| 0.57 | FDA NDA208400: XATMEP (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — AZURITY | fda 2026-05-27 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | |
| 0.57 | FDA NDA202293: FARXIGA (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — ASTRAZENECA AB | fda 2026-06-03 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | |
| 0.57 | github_release 2025-04-07 | 240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-06 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-05 | TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event | — | 15% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-05 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-05 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-05 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Russia enter Svitle by June 30?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 242_019 EVTOL autonomy will come within ~2 years after piloted version Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will a new country join NATO before 1 January 2027?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Will I score higher than 1500 on the June 6th SAT?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi | Other | 53% | |
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Maxx Crosby play for Tampa Bay Buccaneers next?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-06 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 242_042 Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-08 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | FDA BLA761460: DECNUPAZ (PIVEKIMAB SUNIRINE-PVZY) — ABBVIE INC | fda 2026-05-27 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.57 | Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.57 | Will LeBron James play for the Detroit Pistons in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Tucuman: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Santiago De La Fuente(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Atlanta Dream (-8.5)(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn | AI/Compute | 59% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | 230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin | AI/China | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-07 | CYB_015 The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen resumes generated by other bot agents, completely removing the human connection required to accurately assess contextual experience — bot-on-bot recursive... Emad Mostaque | Labor/Jobs | 86% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 23% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | 230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA077345: SERTRALINE HYDROCHLORIDE (SERTRALINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — HERITAGE PHARMA AVET | fda 2026-06-03 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | |
| 0.57 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-30 | 241_041 Biological and nuclear attacks spawned by AI are real dangers Eric Schmidt | AI | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Will George Pickens play for Cleveland Browns in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-27 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-01-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 TOUR Championship?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | 241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.57 | Partizan vs. BC Dubai(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Will Maxx Crosby play for Minnesota Vikings next?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 244_012 Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-03-30 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | 238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | 230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz | AI | 77% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | 241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | 239_032 Progress in AI will continue as series of overlapping S-curves Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA204237: RABEPRAZOLE SODIUM (RABEPRAZOLE SODIUM) — RUBICON RESEARCH | fda 2026-06-05 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will Maya Joint be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.57 | IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half(market prob: 25%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-11 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-11 | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang | Manufacturing | 86% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-11 | SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-10 | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 61% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-10 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-10 | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang | Manufacturing | 86% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-10 | 242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 38% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-10 | CMQ_033 Global HBM demand will reach 32 billion Gb by 2026 — HBM is the absolute critical resource constraint in the AI compute supply chain. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 75% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | 234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | 247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Maxx Crosby play for Indianapolis Colts next?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Tadeo Allende win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-18 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.57 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?(market prob: 98%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Will Neal Shipley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Will Neal Shipley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | |
| 0.57 | Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-04-17 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-12 | TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event | — | 15% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-12 | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 61% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-11 | ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-11 | ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-11 | 229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-11 | AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Will Kevin Roy win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5(market prob: 74%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5(market prob: 94%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Ibanez be in Brazil's Starting 11?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.57 | Will someone manigram me 500 mana?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 239_022 Future AI will care about power/mass rather than human currency Elon Musk | AI | 36% | |
| 0.57 | github_release 2022-06-10 | CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn | AI | 55% | ||
| 0.57 | github_release 2018-06-15 | CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn | AI | 55% | ||
| 0.57 | Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel(market prob: 92%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | |
| 0.57 | Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 246_014 Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 41% | ||
| 0.57 | Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Will I drop out of undergrad?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-06-14 | 240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 231_046 Over the next 10 years humanity will live through top 50 science fiction plots simultaneously. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.57 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.57 | Will my account be restricted or removed by Monday, June 22?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 234_026 AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-15 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-15 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-15 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-15 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-15 | SEM_017 TSMC will produce over 10M wafers/month total in 2026, including ~100K/mo at 2nm and ~200K/mo at 3nm. TSMC (All-In Podcast analysis) | Semis | 59% | ||
| 0.57 | github_release 2025-11-28 | 236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang | Consumer | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.57 | Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 238_049 Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 55% | |
| 0.57 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Will Connelly Early win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?(market prob: 83%) | polymarket 2025-12-30 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?(market prob: 82%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-16 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-16 | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 61% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-14 | 232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-14 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-15 | 241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-15 | AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy | AI | 87% | ||
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA077083: LEFLUNOMIDE (LEFLUNOMIDE) — BARR | fda 2026-06-02 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.57 | FDA NDA214373: BRENZAVVY (BEXAGLIFLOZIN) — THERACOSBIO | fda 2026-06-03 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-17 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Brandon Woodruff win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-18 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.57 | Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?(market prob: 37%) | polymarket 2026-06-16 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-17 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% |