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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.55	Which captain's team will top the money list for the 2026 Your Golf Tour regular season (YouTube golf)?	manifold 2026-06-20	244_012 Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.55	FDA ANDA077494: RISPERIDONE (RISPERIDONE) — PH HEALTH	fda 2026-06-08	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.55	Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.55	Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.55	Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.55	Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.55	Spread: New York Liberty (-5.5)(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.55	Spread: New York Liberty (-5.5)(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.55	Will Keir Starmer resign, or announce his intention to, on Monday 22 June?(market prob: 75%)	manifold 2026-06-21	SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail	Labor/Jobs	37%
0.55	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.55	Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.55	Erling Haaland: 1+ goals(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.55	FDA ANDA216272: NOREPINEPHRINE BITARTRATE (NOREPINEPHRINE BITARTRATE) — NEPHRON	fda 2026-06-11	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.55	Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group D(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.55	Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	39%
0.55	New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.55	Will One Nation win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the next federal election in Australia?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-06-23	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.55	Will One Nation win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the next federal election in Australia?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-06-23	247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.55	Will the next UK PM be contested?(market prob: 43%)	manifold 2026-06-23	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.55	Unlocking In-Context Learning in Audio-Language Models from Decentralized Medical Audio	arxiv 2026-06-22	232_011 Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.55	Holographic s+p superconductors with nonlinear electrodynamics	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.55	FDA ANDA201973: TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE (TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — IPCA LABS LTD	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.55	FDA ANDA204575: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND IBUPROFEN (HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE) — AUROLIFE PHARMA LLC	fda 2026-06-18	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.55	FDA NDA208090: XTAMPZA ER (OXYCODONE) — COLLEGIUM PHARM INC	fda 2026-06-18	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.55	FDA ANDA207333: OXYCODONE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — LANNETT CO INC	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.55	FDA NDA019835: ZYRTEC HIVES (CETIRIZINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — KENVUE BRANDS	fda 2026-06-11	SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore	Semis/Products	71%
0.55	FDA ANDA213761: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — QUAGEN	fda 2026-06-18	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.55	facebookresearch/ocean v1.0.0	github_release 2024-07-08	AUT_021 Defining software movement of 2026: startups building autonomous platforms specifically designed to clean/structure/continuously validate multimodal data — unstructured corporate sludge (PDFs, logs, videos, emails) causes autonomous agentic workflows t... Marc Andreessen	AI	57%
0.55	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-03-04	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.55	Will "Update on the Alex Bores campaign" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-04-27	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.55	Will I promote to Platinum this season?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-04-26	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.55	Estevao plays in the 2026 World Cup(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-04-24	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.55	Will Eliezer Yudkowsky actually debate @47fucb4r8c69323?(market prob: 93%)	manifold 2026-04-24	240_052 Uploading consciousness (whole brain emulation) really will be you in the future Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	41%
0.55		gdelt 2026-04-30	233_008 Public school adoption of Alpha model will take place in the second decade, not the first. Joe Liemandt	Education	32%
0.55	article e4bfef91 059e 5c85 88ba a919a54d007a.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.55		gdelt 2026-04-30	233_008 Public school adoption of Alpha model will take place in the second decade, not the first. Joe Liemandt	Education	32%
0.55	METR - Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks	codex_research_pack 2025-03-19	AUT_009 'Powerful AI' (functional AGI) arrives 2026-2027 — data centers house a 'nation of geniuses' consisting of millions of highly specialized autonomous agents operating orders of magnitude faster than human counterparts; entire software development lifecy... Dario Amodei	AI	22%
0.55	METR - Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks	codex_research_pack 2025-03-19	ROB_005 True AGI requires 'physical intelligence' — an AGI system must be able to control a robotic chassis to play sports or perform complex physical manipulations at amazing levels to truly mirror human brain architecture; software alone cannot achieve full ... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	47%
0.55	OECD - Exploring Possible AI Trajectories Through 2030	codex_research_pack 2026-04-26	AUT_009 'Powerful AI' (functional AGI) arrives 2026-2027 — data centers house a 'nation of geniuses' consisting of millions of highly specialized autonomous agents operating orders of magnitude faster than human counterparts; entire software development lifecy... Dario Amodei	AI	22%
0.55	OECD - Exploring Possible AI Trajectories Through 2030	codex_research_pack 2026-04-26	ROB_005 True AGI requires 'physical intelligence' — an AGI system must be able to control a robotic chassis to play sports or perform complex physical manipulations at amazing levels to truly mirror human brain architecture; software alone cannot achieve full ... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	47%
0.55	OpenAI - Announcing The Stargate Project	codex_research_pack 2025-01-21	INF_050 Within approximately 6-7 years (2031-2032), major tech companies will operate their own small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) co-located directly with AI data centers — in the hundreds-of-megawatts range, bypassing the public grid entirely. Jensen Huang	Energy	39%
0.55	OpenAI - Stargate advances with 4.5 GW partnership with Oracle	codex_research_pack 2025-07-22	INF_050 Within approximately 6-7 years (2031-2032), major tech companies will operate their own small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) co-located directly with AI data centers — in the hundreds-of-megawatts range, bypassing the public grid entirely. Jensen Huang	Energy	39%
0.55	SoftBank - OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank expand Stargate with five new AI data center sites	codex_research_pack 2025-09-24	INF_050 Within approximately 6-7 years (2031-2032), major tech companies will operate their own small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) co-located directly with AI data centers — in the hundreds-of-megawatts range, bypassing the public grid entirely. Jensen Huang	Energy	39%
0.55	NVIDIA - Rubin Platform, Open Models, Autonomous Driving at CES	codex_research_pack 2026-01-06	241_053 AI chips are 2 kilowatts each - requires water cooling Eric Schmidt	AI	54%
0.55	NVIDIA - Vera Rubin Opens Agentic AI Frontier	codex_research_pack 2026-03-16	241_053 AI chips are 2 kilowatts each - requires water cooling Eric Schmidt	AI	54%
0.55	European Commission - AI Act	codex_research_pack 2026-04-28	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.55	European Commission - AI Act	codex_research_pack 2026-04-28	CMQ_018 By 2027-2028, the strategic value of superintelligence + impossible trillion-dollar infrastructure cost will trigger government consolidation of AGI development — 'The Project'. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Geopolitics	35%
0.55	European Commission - Guidelines for providers of general-purpose AI models	codex_research_pack 2026-04-28	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.55	European Commission - Guidelines for providers of general-purpose AI models	codex_research_pack 2026-04-28	CMQ_018 By 2027-2028, the strategic value of superintelligence + impossible trillion-dollar infrastructure cost will trigger government consolidation of AGI development — 'The Project'. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Geopolitics	35%
0.55	Figure - Ramping Figure 03 Production	codex_research_pack 2026-04-29	229_033 Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3s. Brett Adcock	Robotics	40%
0.55	Figure - Ramping Figure 03 Production	codex_research_pack 2026-04-29	INF_025 Figure AI targets deployment of 100,000 general-purpose humanoid robots by 2029, networked to a centralized 'universal brain' capable of controlling any robot body on Earth — requiring continuous high-bandwidth DC-to-edge data streams. Brett Adcock	Robotics	37%
0.55	Figure - BotQ: A High-Volume Manufacturing Facility for Humanoid Robots	codex_research_pack 2025-03-16	229_033 Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3s. Brett Adcock	Robotics	40%
0.55	Figure - BotQ: A High-Volume Manufacturing Facility for Humanoid Robots	codex_research_pack 2025-03-16	INF_025 Figure AI targets deployment of 100,000 general-purpose humanoid robots by 2029, networked to a centralized 'universal brain' capable of controlling any robot body on Earth — requiring continuous high-bandwidth DC-to-edge data streams. Brett Adcock	Robotics	37%
0.55	1X - NEO Factory in Hayward with Consumer Shipments Planned for 2026	codex_research_pack 2026-04-30	CMQ_052 Humanoid robot price will drop to ~$20K-$30K per unit — leased cost ~$500/month for a 24/7 robotic laborer, fundamentally altering physical-labor economics. Brett Adcock	Robotics	22%
0.55	1X - NEO Factory in Hayward with Consumer Shipments Planned for 2026	codex_research_pack 2026-04-30	ROB_009 External sales of Tesla Optimus will commence in 2026 at approximately $30,000 retail price — a $30K capital expenditure for a 24/7-capable machine represents a 36-week payback period vs the lowest US minimum wage; fundamentally alters the mathematics ... Elon Musk	Robotics	18%
0.55	1X - NEO's Starting to Learn On Its Own	codex_research_pack 2026-01-12	CMQ_052 Humanoid robot price will drop to ~$20K-$30K per unit — leased cost ~$500/month for a 24/7 robotic laborer, fundamentally altering physical-labor economics. Brett Adcock	Robotics	22%
0.55	1X - NEO's Starting to Learn On Its Own	codex_research_pack 2026-01-12	ROB_009 External sales of Tesla Optimus will commence in 2026 at approximately $30,000 retail price — a $30K capital expenditure for a 24/7-capable machine represents a 36-week payback period vs the lowest US minimum wage; fundamentally alters the mathematics ... Elon Musk	Robotics	18%
0.55	NASA - Charts More Reliable Course for America's Return to Lunar Surface	codex_research_pack 2026-03-01	SPC_012 SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical prerequisite for future Mars missions, enabling Starship depot-based beyond-LEO operations. Peter Diamandis	Space	41%
0.55	NASA OIG - NASA's Management of the Human Landing System Contracts	codex_research_pack 2026-03-01	SPC_012 SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical prerequisite for future Mars missions, enabling Starship depot-based beyond-LEO operations. Peter Diamandis	Space	41%
0.55	NASA - Artemis II Launch Day Updates	codex_research_pack 2026-04-01	SPC_012 SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical prerequisite for future Mars missions, enabling Starship depot-based beyond-LEO operations. Peter Diamandis	Space	41%
0.55	FDA - Framework for AI Models Used for Drug and Biological Product Submissions	codex_research_pack 2025-01-06	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.55	FDA - Framework for AI Models Used for Drug and Biological Product Submissions	codex_research_pack 2025-01-06	247_033 Timelines for solving all disease are collapsing; Demis says cure all disease within a decade Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	62%
0.55	FDA - Framework for AI Models Used for Drug and Biological Product Submissions	codex_research_pack 2025-01-06	247_041 AI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	55%
0.55	FDA - Framework for AI Models Used for Drug and Biological Product Submissions	codex_research_pack 2025-01-06	248_029 Regime change at the FDA is not beyond the realm of reason. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	35%
0.55	Isomorphic Labs - $600M funding to advance therapeutic programs into the clinic	codex_research_pack 2025-03-31	230_031 We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across many fields starting now. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.55	Isomorphic Labs - $600M funding to advance therapeutic programs into the clinic	codex_research_pack 2025-03-31	247_033 Timelines for solving all disease are collapsing; Demis says cure all disease within a decade Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	62%
0.55	Isomorphic Labs - $600M funding to advance therapeutic programs into the clinic	codex_research_pack 2025-03-31	247_035 Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade Dario Amodei	Biotech/Longevity	39%
0.55	Colossal - Woolly Mouse Mammoth gene editing validates de-extinction pipeline	codex_research_pack 2025-03-04	245_024 Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from current hundreds) Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	24%
0.55	Colossal - Woolly Mouse Mammoth gene editing validates de-extinction pipeline	codex_research_pack 2025-03-04	245_033 Colossal will work to reintroduce all de-extincted species back into their environments Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.55	Colossal - Woolly Mouse Mammoth gene editing validates de-extinction pipeline	codex_research_pack 2025-03-04	245_040 Biovault model will expand; UAE is the first of multiple country partnerships Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.55	Colossal - Dire Wolf project	codex_research_pack 2025-04-07	245_024 Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from current hundreds) Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	24%
0.55	Colossal - Dire Wolf project	codex_research_pack 2025-04-07	245_033 Colossal will work to reintroduce all de-extincted species back into their environments Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.55	Colossal - Dire Wolf project	codex_research_pack 2025-04-07	245_040 Biovault model will expand; UAE is the first of multiple country partnerships Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.55	Axios - Colossal Biosciences reveals bluebuck de-extinction target	codex_research_pack 2026-04-30	245_024 Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from current hundreds) Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	24%
0.55	Axios - Colossal Biosciences reveals bluebuck de-extinction target	codex_research_pack 2026-04-30	245_033 Colossal will work to reintroduce all de-extincted species back into their environments Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.55	Axios - Colossal Biosciences reveals bluebuck de-extinction target	codex_research_pack 2026-04-30	245_040 Biovault model will expand; UAE is the first of multiple country partnerships Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.55	Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.55	LoL: GTZ Esports vs Dream Esports (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.55	Will the Green Party or Labour next have a leadership election, after 30th April 2026?	manifold 2026-04-30	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.55	VALERO ENERGY CORP/TX (VLO) (CIK 0001035002)	edgar_8k 2026-04-30	SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.55	Chirayu Rana sued?(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	247_004 Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit conversions Dave Blundin	AI	39%
0.55	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.55	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 100m?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.55	Will I restrict my food-buying behaviour in line with this market in May?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-05-01	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.55	Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.55	LoL: Cloud9 vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular Season(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.55	Will Jannik Sinner win Roland Garros 2026?(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-04-27	S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path	agi_general_capability	35%
0.55	Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.55	Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	236_025 Suburban housing prices will fall as white collar workers lose jobs and sell homes Andrew Yang	Real Estate	42%
0.55	LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.55	Will I stick to my lecture protocol and preparation next week?(market prob: 55%)	manifold 2026-05-03	234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.55	LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.55	Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.55	Ducks vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.55	Will Evan Li’s text to his EX gain a response(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-05-03	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.55	Planet Labs PBC (PL) (CIK 0001836833)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	SEM_004 Capital should rotate FROM software developers TO data-center compute, power infrastructure, semi supply chains, and repurposed Bitcoin mining facilities. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Investing	77%
0.55	Timberwolves vs. Spurs(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.55	Santos: Santiago De La Fuente vs Franco Roncadelli(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.55	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.55	Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.55	Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.55	How many seats will Greens win in the 2026 Senedd election?	manifold 2026-05-05	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.55	Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. (SHLS) (CIK 0001831651)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.55	Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. (SHLS) (CIK 0001831651)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.55	Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) (CIK 0001669162)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.55	AMKOR TECHNOLOGY, INC. (AMKR) (CIK 0001047127)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.55	Limbach Holdings, Inc. (LMB) (CIK 0001606163)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	INF_040 Massive financial conglomerates will execute historic mergers to control underlying DC real-estate and fiber-optic assets: SoftBank's move to acquire DigitalBridge for its approximately $108 billion in infrastructure assets signals real-estate and fibe... SoftBank	Markets/Stocks	40%
0.55	POWELL INDUSTRIES INC (POWL) (CIK 0000080420)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	SPC_018 Five North America-linked miners — MP Materials, Almonty Industries, Freeport-McMoRan, Alcoa, Teck Resources — are critical dependencies for the emerging space hardware supply chain: copper (regenerative cooling channels, Raptor/BE-4 pressure scaling),... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	65%
0.55	Fabrinet (FN) (CIK 0001408710)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.55	FDA ANDA219865: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — HETERO LABS LTD VI	fda 2026-04-30	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.55	FDA ANDA079099: LAMOTRIGINE (LAMOTRIGINE) — GLENMARK PHARMS LTD	fda 2026-04-17	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.55	FDA ANDA204687: VALSARTAN AND HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE (HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE) — SCIEGEN PHARMS	fda 2026-04-23	INF_053 Valar Atomics "Nuclear Gigasite" model — clustering hundreds of identical High-Temperature Gas Reactors (HTGR) on a single remote heavily-regulated site — will emerge as the dominant deployment architecture for advanced fission, superseding scattered S... Isaiah Taylor	Energy	28%
0.55	FDA ANDA218740: CETRORELIX ACETATE (CETRORELIX ACETATE) — HUMANWELL	fda 2026-04-29	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.55	FDA ANDA220269: NITROFURANTOIN (MONOHYDRATE/MACROCRYSTALS) (NITROFURANTOIN) — CREEKWOOD PHARMS	fda 2026-04-07	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.55	San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.55	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei	AI	28%
0.55	Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.55	Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.55	Iran closes its airspace by May 7?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.55	LoL: Barcząca Esports vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	229_047 Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planned. Brett Adcock	AI	77%
0.55	Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.55	Ducks vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.55	LoL: Conviction vs NRG Esports (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular Season(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.55	Will the Supreme Court uphold the 5th Circuit ruling restricting mifepristone?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-05-06	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.55	Low Rank Tensor Completion via Adaptive ADMM	arxiv 2026-05-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.55	Graph Reconstruction from Differentially Private GNN Explanations	arxiv 2026-05-05	231_049 If privacy is cooked, then crypto is cooked (private keys compromised). Alex Wissner-Gross	Crypto	40%
0.55	LLM-XTM: Enhancing Cross-Lingual Topic Models with Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.55	PC-MNet: Dual-Level Congruity Modeling for Multimodal Sarcasm Detection via Polarity-Modulated Attention	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.55	Constraining F-theory Model Building with QCD Axions	arxiv 2026-05-05	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.55	The Fate of Nucleated Black Holes in de Sitter Quantum Gravity	arxiv 2026-05-04	234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.55	Hadronic lensing	arxiv 2026-05-04	242_002 Long-term petawatt compute will come only from lunar mass drivers Peter Diamandis	Space	37%
0.55	FDA ANDA078947: LAMOTRIGINE (LAMOTRIGINE) — TORRENT PHARMS	fda 2026-04-10	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.55	FDA ANDA218509: IVERMECTIN (IVERMECTIN) — AJANTA PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-04-07	AI_031 AGI will be defined by its ability to autonomously formulate novel scientific hypotheses — effectively solving '100 years of biology' in a fraction of the historical time required, via continuous hypothesis-generation and experimental iteration. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	51%
0.55	facebookresearch/omnilingual-asr 0.1.0	github_release 2025-12-12	234_004 Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.55	facebookresearch/omnilingual-asr 0.1.0	github_release 2025-12-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.55	Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.55	Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.55	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: McCartney Kessler vs Iva Jovic(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.55	Santos: Luis Guto Miguel vs Juan Manuel La Serna(market prob: 72%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.55	facebookresearch/balance 0.6.0	github_release 2023-04-05	230_045 GDP will be replaced by an 'Abundance Capability Index' measuring capacity to solve problems. Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	39%
0.55	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.32.post1	github_release 2025-08-14	231_002 Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.55	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Emma Navarro vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	92%
0.55	Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.55	Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.55	Will Rebecca Scriven win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-17	247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	46%
0.55	UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-04-18	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.55	Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.55	Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.55	St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.55	Will the stock market crash if the Republicans win the midterms?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-05-08	INF_042 Current market panic over AI compute and power will follow the historical pattern 'shortage leads to oversupply' — trillions flowing into data centers, GPU manufacturing, and energy procurement will ultimately crash the marginal cost of both compute an... Marc Andreessen	Macro/Economy	48%
0.55	Will eBay use the domain half.com to respond to the GameStop offer before July?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-08	238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick	Robotics	42%
0.55	The Phases of the Scalar S-Matrix Island	arxiv 2026-05-07	248_037 State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	10%
0.55	Causal self-dual nonlinear electrodynamics from the Born-Infeld theory	arxiv 2026-05-07	246_034 Thousands of Medev-like one-person unicorns will be created, following power law. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.55	Causal self-dual nonlinear electrodynamics from the Born-Infeld theory	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.55	Ultraviolet-Finite Perturbative Expansion of Quantum Gravity at Null Infinity	arxiv 2026-05-07	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.55	Canonical quantization of all minisuperspaces with consistent symmetry reductions	arxiv 2026-05-06	231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	23%
0.55	Canonical quantization of all minisuperspaces with consistent symmetry reductions	arxiv 2026-05-06	231_036 Relativity Space still probably a year or two away from launch. Peter Diamandis	Space	51%
0.55	Kerr/CFT Traversable Wormhole with Fermionic Double-Trace Deformation	arxiv 2026-05-06	232_050 Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.55	Hawking Temperature, Sparsity and Energy Emission Rate of Regular Black Holes Supported by Primordial Dark Matter	arxiv 2026-05-06	230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis	AI	48%
0.55	FDA NDA021342: LEVO-T (LEVOTHYROXINE SODIUM) — CEDIPROF INC	fda 2026-05-04	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.55	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Joao Fonseca(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	84%
0.55	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Joao Fonseca(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.55	Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.55	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.55	UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-04-18	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.55	UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims)(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-04-18	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.55	UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims)(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-04-18	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.55	LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.55	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Viktorija Golubic vs Mirra Andreeva(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.55	LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOUD - Game 3 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.55	UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-04-18	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.55	Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.55	Which Party will win the 2026 Vermont Gubernatorial Election?	manifold 2026-05-09	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.55	VALERO ENERGY CORP/TX (VLO) (CIK 0001035002)	edgar_8k 2026-05-08	SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.55	Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) (CIK 0001783879)	edgar_8k 2026-05-08	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.55	FDA ANDA218840: CALCIUM GLUCONATE (CALCIUM GLUCONATE) — CAPLIN	fda 2026-05-04	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.55	Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.55	Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.55	LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.55	Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.55	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	240_056 Anthropic enterprise market share to continue growing (went from 40% to 73% in 3 months) Peter Diamandis	AI	54%
0.55	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Casper Ruud(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.55	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?(market prob: 92%)	polymarket 2026-03-17	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.55	Will national dry van spot rate be below $1.50/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-05-10	243_036 Price of rides will come down with autonomous driving Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	41%
0.55	SITIME Corp (SITM) (CIK 0001451809)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.55	Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) (CIK 0001682852)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.55	facebookresearch/vrs v1.3.0	github_release 2024-09-16	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.55	Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.55	Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.55	Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.55	Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.55	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	30%
0.55	Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs HereWeGoAgain (BO3) - CCT South America Series 2 Group Stage(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang	Policy/Semis	66%
0.55	Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.55	Who will win CLASH (HS)?	manifold 2026-05-12	241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.55	China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-05-12	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.55	PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ (PGR) (CIK 0000080661)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.55	IRON MOUNTAIN INC (IRM) (CIK 0001020569)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	SPC_018 Five North America-linked miners — MP Materials, Almonty Industries, Freeport-McMoRan, Alcoa, Teck Resources — are critical dependencies for the emerging space hardware supply chain: copper (regenerative cooling channels, Raptor/BE-4 pressure scaling),... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	65%
0.55	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei	AI	28%
0.55	Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.55	Paris: Diane Parry vs Chloe Paquet(market prob: 58%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google	AI	46%
0.55	St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.55	At the end of 2036, will the UK have routinely unarmed police officers?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-05-13	FUT_016 Next 5 years (2026-2030) require individuals + organizations to adopt 'FLUX' superpowers — ability to transform constant uncertainty into strategic advantage. Traditional linear career paths dissolve entirely by 2030, replaced by fluid portfolio-based ... April Rinne	Labor/Jobs	39%
0.55	Xi JinPing visits USA before July 31?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-13	232_020 Real danger that US slows AI enough to fall behind China, losing control over societal outcomes. Ben Horowitz	Geopolitics	48%
0.55	Will "The Owned Ones" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-12	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.55	EQUIFAX INC (EFX) (CIK 0000033185)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.55	CISCO SYSTEMS, INC. (CSCO) (CIK 0000858877)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	COD_AI_002 At least one 1 GW Vera Rubin frontier-training cluster reaches deployment by Q1 2027 Codex Research Pack	AI/Compute	40%
0.55	Sobolev Regularized MMD Gradient Flow	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.55	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina(market prob: 75%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.55	LoL: Shifters vs Galions - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.55	Golden Knights vs. Ducks(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.55	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Walczaki (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	SEM_003 Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Energy/Compute	86%
0.55	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-12-02	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.55	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-12-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.55	Will Israel win the public vote at Eurovision 2026(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-05-14	231_011 The country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war. Peter Diamandis	Geopolitics	55%
0.55	Will Israel win the public vote at Eurovision 2026(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-05-14	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.55	Will Israel win the public vote at Eurovision 2026(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-05-14	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.55	How many candidates will take part in the next UK Labour leadership election?	manifold 2026-05-14	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.55	Aveanna Healthcare Holdings, Inc. (AVAH) (CIK 0001832332)	edgar_8k 2026-05-14	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.55	ICHOR HOLDINGS, LTD. (ICHR) (CIK 0001652535)	edgar_8k 2026-05-14	235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.55	Fortive Corp (FTV) (CIK 0001659166)	edgar_8k 2026-05-14	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.55	FDA ANDA075435: GABAPENTIN (GABAPENTIN) — TEVA PHARMS	fda 2026-05-07	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.55	Parma: Dayana Yastremska vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.55	Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.55	Aveanna Healthcare Holdings, Inc. (AVAH) (CIK 0001832332)	edgar_8k 2026-05-15	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.55	FIRST SOLAR, INC. (FSLR) (CIK 0001274494)	edgar_8k 2026-05-15	246_010 SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	43%
0.55	Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.55	Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	238_020 Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	61%
0.55	Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	39%
0.55	Spurs vs. Thunder(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.55	Which of the following major Supreme Court cases will be resolved before June?	manifold 2026-05-16	231_029 Millisecond real-time dispute resolution will replace current court systems. Dave Blundin	Other	49%
0.55	FDA ANDA212428: OXCARBAZEPINE (OXCARBAZEPINE) — CHARTWELL RX	fda 2026-05-12	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.55	Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.55	Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.55	How many World Cup match will go over 100 minutes? (Regular time only)	manifold 2026-05-17	242_016 TV ad campaign against human driving in 3-5 years will drive voting to ban it Dave Blundin	Auto/Transport	46%
0.55	If Andy Burnham loses the Makerfield by election, will be contest another by election before 2029?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-16	238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	45%
0.55	Will Mohamed Salah be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-08-17	235_033 Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	52%
0.55	LoL: Estral Esports vs RED Academy - Game 3 Winner(market prob: 87%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	240_056 Anthropic enterprise market share to continue growing (went from 40% to 73% in 3 months) Peter Diamandis	AI	54%
0.55	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.55	What goals will I achieve this week?	manifold 2026-05-18	COD_AI_004 Frontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	AI	36%
0.55	Limbach Holdings, Inc. (LMB) (CIK 0001606163)	edgar_8k 2026-05-18	INF_040 Massive financial conglomerates will execute historic mergers to control underlying DC real-estate and fiber-optic assets: SoftBank's move to acquire DigitalBridge for its approximately $108 billion in infrastructure assets signals real-estate and fibe... SoftBank	Markets/Stocks	40%
0.55	AAON, INC. (AAON) (CIK 0000824142)	edgar_8k 2026-05-18	239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk	AI	47%
0.55	AAON, INC. (AAON) (CIK 0000824142)	edgar_8k 2026-05-18	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.55	ICHOR HOLDINGS, LTD. (ICHR) (CIK 0001652535)	edgar_8k 2026-05-18	235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.55	CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV) (CIK 0001769628)	edgar_8k 2026-05-18	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.55	Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.55	Spurs vs. Thunder(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.55	Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	39%
0.55	FORMFACTOR INC (FORM) (CIK 0001039399)	edgar_8k 2026-05-19	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.55	SITIME Corp (SITM) (CIK 0001451809)	edgar_8k 2026-05-19	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.55	AMKOR TECHNOLOGY, INC. (AMKR) (CIK 0001047127)	edgar_8k 2026-05-19	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.55	S2Aligner: Pair-Efficient and Transferable Pre-Training for Sparse Text-Attributed Graphs	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.55	FDA ANDA203512: SPIRONOLACTONE (SPIRONOLACTONE) — ACCORD HLTHCARE	fda 2026-05-12	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.55	Spurs vs. Thunder(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-24	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.55	Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-28	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.55	Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-28	230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.55	Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-28	FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	62%
0.55	Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-28	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.55	Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-28	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.55	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-28	CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil	AI	30%
0.55	Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-28	230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.55	On June 28th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?	manifold 2026-05-27	243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	43%
0.55	Who will win the Washington 3rds House election in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-26	INF_032 Residential electricity costs are a structural byproduct of DC buildout: Washington state household electricity costs rose 10.3% from 2024 to 2025 directly tied to infrastructure strain, with utility-proposed rate increases projecting residential price... Seattle Met / Washington State regulators	Macro/Economy	54%
0.55	Who will advance from the Washington 9th Blanket Primary?	manifold 2026-05-26	FUT_014 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	55%
0.55	What goals will I achieve this week?	manifold 2026-05-25	COD_AI_004 Frontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	AI	36%
0.55	Will I get a girlfriend before I make USNCO Camp in 2027?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-05-24	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.55	SITIME Corp (SITM) (CIK 0001451809)	edgar_8k 2026-05-29	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.55	Aveanna Healthcare Holdings, Inc. (AVAH) (CIK 0001832332)	edgar_8k 2026-05-29	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.55	FDA ANDA077615: DIVALPROEX SODIUM (DIVALPROEX SODIUM) — APOTEX	fda 2026-05-18	SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore	Semis/Products	71%
0.55	FDA ANDA040191: MEPERIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE (MEPERIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — STRIDES PHARMA INTL	fda 2026-05-15	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.55	FDA ANDA211015: VERAPAMIL HYDROCHLORIDE (VERAPAMIL HYDROCHLORIDE) — SOMERSET THERAPS LLC	fda 2026-05-20	248_029 Regime change at the FDA is not beyond the realm of reason. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	35%
0.55	FDA ANDA211015: VERAPAMIL HYDROCHLORIDE (VERAPAMIL HYDROCHLORIDE) — SOMERSET THERAPS LLC	fda 2026-05-20	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.55	Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.55	Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.55	Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.55	T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs Pakistan(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.55	T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs Pakistan(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.55	Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.55	Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.55	Will "Lighthaven East - A Feasibility Study" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-06-01	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.55	What goals will I achieve this week?	manifold 2026-06-01	COD_AI_004 Frontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	AI	36%
0.55	FDA ANDA208002: LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE (LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — AMNEAL PHARMS CO	fda 2026-05-19	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.55	FDA ANDA220437: TIVOZANIB (TIVOZANIB) — SANDOZ INC	fda 2026-05-14	TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event	—	15%
0.55	facebookresearch/nle v0.9.0	github_release 2022-11-24	237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn	AI	41%
0.55	facebookresearch/nle v0.8.1	github_release 2021-12-16	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.55	facebookresearch/nle v0.7.3	github_release 2021-07-21	237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn	AI	41%
0.55	Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.55	Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.55	LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.55	Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.55	Birmingham: Clement Chidekh vs Filippo Romano(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.55	LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.55	Aveanna Healthcare Holdings, Inc. (AVAH) (CIK 0001832332)	edgar_8k 2026-06-02	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.55	VARONIS SYSTEMS INC (VRNS) (CIK 0001361113)	edgar_8k 2026-06-02	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.55	Bayesian Spectral Emotion Transition Discovery from Multi-Annotator Disagreement	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.55	Density-Aware Translation of Spurious Correlations in Zero-Shot VLMs	arxiv 2026-06-01	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.55	Spatially Distributed Task-Oriented Compression for Multi-Emitter Localization and Characterization with Spectral Overlap	arxiv 2026-05-31	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.55	FDA NDA022180: FERAHEME (FERUMOXYTOL) — AZURITY	fda 2026-05-27	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.55	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.1.1	github_release 2019-04-03	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.55	facebookresearch/facestar female_speaker_testset	github_release 2022-03-25	S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026 Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026	robotaxi_deployment	40%
0.55	San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.55	Who will be in Thinking Basketball's top 10 NBA players of 2026 when healthy? (add answers is on)	manifold 2026-06-03	241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.55	Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) (CIK 0001783879)	edgar_8k 2026-06-03	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.55	ChargePoint Holdings, Inc. (CHPT) (CIK 0001777393)	edgar_8k 2026-06-03	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.55	FDA ANDA077120: CARBIDOPA AND LEVODOPA (CARBIDOPA) — APOTEX INC	fda 2026-05-28	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.55	FDA ANDA077120: CARBIDOPA AND LEVODOPA (CARBIDOPA) — APOTEX INC	fda 2026-05-28	SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore	Semis/Products	71%
0.55	T20 Blast: Somerset vs Glamorgan(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.55	Makarska: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Noma Noha Akugue(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.55	Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.55	Tyler: Braden Shick vs Aidan Mayo(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.55	Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.55	Barcelona vs. CB Murcia(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.55	Which continent(s) will have all of their teams eliminated first in the 2026 World Cup?	manifold 2026-06-04	FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan	Macro/Economy	72%
0.55	Planet Labs PBC (PL) (CIK 0001836833)	edgar_8k 2026-06-04	SEM_004 Capital should rotate FROM software developers TO data-center compute, power infrastructure, semi supply chains, and repurposed Bitcoin mining facilities. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Investing	77%
0.55	San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.55	Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.55	Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	39%
0.55	Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-23	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.55	Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-23	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.55	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.55	Joventut vs. Saski Baskonia(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.55	Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.55	Will Ryan Strophy get a girlfriend by the end of June?(market prob: 1%)	manifold 2026-06-05	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.55	Will iran and usa stop the war permanent on 31.juni(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-06-05	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.55	What is the most played sport on manifold? [Resolves to poll]	manifold 2026-06-05	244_004 Race car driving will persist as a sport Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	50%
0.55	Multilingual Coreference Resolution via Cycle-Consistent Machine Translation	arxiv 2026-06-03	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.55	Smooth horizons from topology change in canonical quantum gravity	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.55	Diffusion of multiple conserved charges from entropy production	arxiv 2026-06-04	230_033 Intelligence explosion shockwave propagates from math → physical sciences → planetary systems, Dyson swarm by early 2030s. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.55	Non-linear evolution of five-dimensional black strings in effective field theory	arxiv 2026-06-03	233_014 Over the next 12 years, half of kids will have neural links while others won't, creating divergence. Dave Blundin	Biotech/Longevity	45%
0.55	Big Axions	arxiv 2026-06-03	232_056 Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.55	FDA NDA209803: STEGLATRO (ERTUGLIFLOZIN) — MSD SUB MERCK	fda 2026-06-03	SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore	Semis/Products	71%
0.55	Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.55	Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.55	Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.55	New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.55	Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.55	Spread: New York Liberty (-3.5)(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.55	2027 Wimbledon - Men’s singles winner?	manifold 2026-06-06	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.55	Planet Labs PBC (PL) (CIK 0001836833)	edgar_8k 2026-06-05	SEM_004 Capital should rotate FROM software developers TO data-center compute, power infrastructure, semi supply chains, and repurposed Bitcoin mining facilities. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Investing	77%
0.55	Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross	Consumer	42%
0.55	LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock	Robotics	42%
0.55	Iran closes its airspace by June 22?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.55	Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.55	What team will win NSBA 4	manifold 2026-06-07	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.55	Will the SSPX catholics incur excommunications in 2026?(market prob: 75%)	manifold 2026-06-06	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.55	ITF Cuiaba: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Nick Hardt(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.55	TEVI: Text-Conditioned Editing of Visual Representations via Sparse Autoencoders for Improved Vision-Language Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-05	235_036 AI-generated images will eliminate commercial photography, illustrators and stock image platforms. Peter Diamandis	Media/Ads	51%
0.55	Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.55	Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.55	LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.55	Prime Medicine, Inc. (PRME) (CIK 0001894562)	edgar_8k 2026-06-08	235_031 Eli Lilly perilously close to $1 trillion market cap at ~$950B. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	39%
0.55	AAON, INC. (AAON) (CIK 0000824142)	edgar_8k 2026-06-08	239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk	AI	47%
0.55	AAON, INC. (AAON) (CIK 0000824142)	edgar_8k 2026-06-08	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.55	FDA ANDA202778: DOXYCYCLINE (DOXYCYCLINE) — STRIDES PHARMA	fda 2026-05-27	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.55	Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.55	World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.55	New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	230_016 Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	55%
0.55	New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.55	Will England reach the semi-finals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 49%)	manifold 2026-06-09	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.55	URANIUM ENERGY CORP (UEC) (CIK 0001334933)	edgar_8k 2026-06-09	INF_045 Nuclear sector will draw approximately $1.5 trillion in cumulative capital investment through 2050, increasing nuclear's share of global energy supply from ~10% currently to ~17%. Morgan Stanley	Energy	51%
0.55	UNITED NATURAL FOODS INC (UNFI) (CIK 0001020859)	edgar_8k 2026-06-09	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.55	Cross-Source Reasoning-based Correction for Author Name Disambiguation	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.55	Semi-universality of conformal higher-derivative and conformal higher-spin fields	arxiv 2026-06-07	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.55	FDA ANDA208111: AZELASTINE HYDROCHLORIDE AND FLUTICASONE PROPIONATE (AZELASTINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — PADAGIS ISRAEL	fda 2026-06-03	232_036 AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE. Ben Horowitz	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.55	FDA ANDA207429: SOTALOL HYDROCHLORIDE (SOTALOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — REGCON HOLDINGS	fda 2026-06-05	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.55	Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.55	Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.55	Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.55	Will Asu Almabayev be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock	Robotics	42%
0.55	ITF Decatur: Ena Koike vs Ana Grubor(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.55	On Calabi-Yau Threefolds For Unified LVS Inflation	arxiv 2026-06-09	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.55	Chiral Plasma under Strong Magnetic Fields: A Holographic Analysis of Transport Phenomena	arxiv 2026-06-09	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.55	FDA ANDA217873: SUCCINYLCHOLINE CHLORIDE (SUCCINYLCHOLINE CHLORIDE) — STERISCIENCE	fda 2026-06-08	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.55	Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard(market prob: 89%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.55	HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.55	Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.55	HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	92%
0.55	HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	84%
0.55	Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.55	HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	84%
0.55	CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV) (CIK 0001769628)	edgar_8k 2026-06-11	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.55	Limbach Holdings, Inc. (LMB) (CIK 0001606163)	edgar_8k 2026-06-11	INF_040 Massive financial conglomerates will execute historic mergers to control underlying DC real-estate and fiber-optic assets: SoftBank's move to acquire DigitalBridge for its approximately $108 billion in infrastructure assets signals real-estate and fibe... SoftBank	Markets/Stocks	40%
0.55	Fortive Corp (FTV) (CIK 0001659166)	edgar_8k 2026-06-11	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.55	CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV) (CIK 0001769628)	edgar_8k 2026-06-10	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.55	Reddit, Inc. (RDDT) (CIK 0001713445)	edgar_8k 2026-06-10	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.55	Chubb Ltd (CB) (CIK 0000896159)	edgar_8k 2026-06-10	242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.55	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.55	Will Alec Pierce be traded?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-02-16	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.55	Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.55	Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.55	Will Christopher Nolan have a new film release in 2027 or 2028?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-06-12	229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock	Robotics	14%
0.55	Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. (SHLS) (CIK 0001831651)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.55	Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. (SHLS) (CIK 0001831651)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.55	Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. (SHLS) (CIK 0001831651)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.55	Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. (SHLS) (CIK 0001831651)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.55	Trapped Surface as a Cosmic Censor	arxiv 2026-06-11	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.55	Exact Relevant Stress-Tensor Flows and a Causality No-Go in Self-Dual Electrodynamics	arxiv 2026-06-11	231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	23%
0.55	Mapping the Infrared Phase Space of Gravity to Finite Subregions	arxiv 2026-06-10	240_012 Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few years Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.55	Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.55	Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 40%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	39%
0.55	UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.55	Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-01-29	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.55	Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome?(market prob: 36%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.55	LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock	Robotics	42%
0.55	Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	39%
0.55	Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	232_024 San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue. Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	34%
0.55	Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.55	Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.55	Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	92%
0.55	Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinina(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.55	Who will win the 2026 FIDE World Team Blitz Chess Championship?	manifold 2026-06-14	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.55	Will trump ever leave office ?(market prob: 77%)	manifold 2026-06-14	236_040 CEO will be last to go in AI wave of automation Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	42%
0.55	Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-06-14	237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn	AI	41%
0.55	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-22	229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock	Robotics	42%
0.55	Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.55	Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 34%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.55	Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.55	Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.55	Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros(market prob: 40%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.55	Will Ta'Niya Latson win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.55	Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-28	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.55	Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.55	Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) (CIK 0001783879)	edgar_8k 2026-06-16	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.55	EQUIFAX INC (EFX) (CIK 0000033185)	edgar_8k 2026-06-16	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.55	Determining the Spin Density Matrix via Its Rank and Probing the Quantum Entanglement and Bell Non-Locality at the Lepton Colliders	arxiv 2026-06-15	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.55	A Gauge-Covariant Geometric Framework for Non-Hermitian Quantum Systems	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.55	Why fluctuations of conserved charges in the confining regime above $T_{ch}$ behave as if the quarks were free?	arxiv 2026-06-14	238_050 Sci-fi tropes (warp drive, teleportation, time travel) are not yet achieved; replicator/holodeck close Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	41%
0.55	Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.55	New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky(market prob: 82%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.55	New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky(market prob: 82%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	39%
0.55	Sensing the Inflationary Production of Scalars	arxiv 2026-06-16	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.55	HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.55	Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.55	Will Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	243_001 Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.55	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.55	Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.55	CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV) (CIK 0001769628)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.55	Bloom Energy Corp (BE) (CIK 0001664703)	edgar_8k 2026-06-17	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.55	PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ (PGR) (CIK 0000080661)	edgar_8k 2026-06-17	235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.55	Post-Carroll Algebra, Conformal Extensions, and Field Theories	arxiv 2026-06-17	240_032 PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.55	What makes spacetime spin in string theory?	arxiv 2026-06-16	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.55	Universal entanglement probes of topological order and locally-achiral manifolds	arxiv 2026-06-16	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.55	FDA ANDA219287: GADOBUTROL (GADOBUTROL) — VIWIT PHARM	fda 2026-06-11	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.55	Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.55	Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.55	Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt(market prob: 40%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.55	Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.55	Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.55	Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs(market prob: 86%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.55	PASQA: Pitch-Accent-Focused Speech Quality Assessment Model Trained on Synthetic Speech with Accent Errors	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.55	Many-body chirality of topological stabilizer states	arxiv 2026-06-18	232_050 Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.55	Membrane instantons and non-perturbative effects in $\mathrm{AdS}_{4}/\mathrm{CFT}_{3}$	arxiv 2026-06-17	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.55	Dynamical Tidal Response of Neutron Stars: from Effective Field Theory to Gravitational Waveforms	arxiv 2026-06-17	240_012 Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few years Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.55	Calabi-Yau Orientifold Hypersurfaces and their F-theory Uplifts	arxiv 2026-06-17	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.55	FDA ANDA075468: CLONAZEPAM (CLONAZEPAM) — RUBICON RESEARCH	fda 2026-06-12	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.55	San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-06-14	232_024 San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue. Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	34%
0.55	San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-06-14	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.55	Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-06-14	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.55	Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.55	Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.55	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 21?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.55	FDA ANDA202691: METHYLPREDNISOLONE SODIUM SUCCINATE (METHYLPREDNISOLONE SODIUM SUCCINATE) — HIKMA	fda 2026-06-11	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.55	Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.55	Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.55	Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.55	Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.55	Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.55	Will Fable 5 be reenabled for Everyone at the same time?(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-06-22	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.55	Golf: Who will win the 2027 US Open?	manifold 2026-06-22	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.55	UNITED NATURAL FOODS INC (UNFI) (CIK 0001020859)	edgar_8k 2026-06-22	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.55	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.55	Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.55	It is more likely that Islam is true than Christianity [Convince the Machine #18](market prob: 43%)	manifold 2026-06-23	248_025 Religion will consolidate globally around fewer major religions while proliferating micro cults/sects. Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.55	Interpretable Probabilistic Medical Image Segmentation via Gaussian Process with Explicit Modelling of Annotation Bias and Variability	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.55	Semiclassical decay of de Sitter space into black holes with vortex-deformed horizons	arxiv 2026-06-22	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.55	Unifying the Dark Sector with the New Generalized Chaplygin Gas: Observational Constraints	arxiv 2026-06-22	230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis	AI	48%
0.55	Holographic s+p superconductors with nonlinear electrodynamics	arxiv 2026-06-21	234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.55	Holographic s+p superconductors with nonlinear electrodynamics	arxiv 2026-06-21	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.55	Hilbert Functions and Line Bundle Cohomology on CICY Threefolds	arxiv 2026-06-20	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.55	FDA ANDA203447: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — ANI PHARMS	fda 2026-06-18	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.55	FDA ANDA202718: MORPHINE SULFATE (MORPHINE SULFATE) — TEVA PHARMS USA	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.55	FDA ANDA204234: DOXYCYCLINE (DOXYCYCLINE) — LUPIN	fda 2026-06-12	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.55	FDA ANDA210211: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — WES PHARMA INC	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%