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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.56	Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	Israel closes its airspace by June 14?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.56	Will there be 4 hat tricks in the 2026 World Cup?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-06-11	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.56	Free Lottery (cosmic microwave background)(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-11	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.56	CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV) (CIK 0001769628)	edgar_8k 2026-06-11	237_016 A specific-sliver OpenClaw-powered vertical SaaS could become a $5 million company overnight for ~$200 subscription cost. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	43%
0.56	Limbach Holdings, Inc. (LMB) (CIK 0001606163)	edgar_8k 2026-06-11	244_012 Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.56	CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV) (CIK 0001769628)	edgar_8k 2026-06-10	237_016 A specific-sliver OpenClaw-powered vertical SaaS could become a $5 million company overnight for ~$200 subscription cost. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	43%
0.56	Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) (CIK 0001571996)	edgar_8k 2026-06-10	248_047 Memory companies' stock prices will continue increasing despite algorithmic efficiency gains. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	39%
0.56	SLB LIMITED/NV (SLB) (CIK 0000087347)	edgar_8k 2026-06-10	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.56	MASIMO CORP (MASI) (CIK 0000937556)	edgar_8k 2026-06-10	SEM_048 OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support Stargate chip acquisition). OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)	AI/Corporate	80%
0.56	Noise-Aware Framework for Correcting Corrupted Labels	arxiv 2026-06-10	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.56	OmniLoc: A Geometry-Aware Foundation Model for Anchor-Free UE Localization Across Diverse Indoor Environments	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.56	Revisiting the Axial Anomaly and Chiral Magnetic Effect in Dense Matter, with Applications to Axion Dark Matter	arxiv 2026-06-10	240_012 Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few years Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.56	Invariants of Sequential Circuits and Generalized Non-Abelian Statistics	arxiv 2026-06-10	247_037 Quantum computing will not break Bitcoin (Mike Saylor position) Michael Saylor	Crypto	54%
0.56	Lectures on Semiclassical Methods for Composite Operators	arxiv 2026-06-09	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.56	Will Tadeo Allende win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-18	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.56	Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.56	Will Germán Berterame win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-18	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.56	Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay?(market prob: 15%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.56	How many cases of Screwworm infestation will there be by the end of June?	manifold 2026-06-12	247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis	Robotics	32%
0.56	Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) (CIK 0001571996)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	248_047 Memory companies' stock prices will continue increasing despite algorithmic efficiency gains. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	39%
0.56	BASENet: Band-Adapted Speech Enhancement Network with Cross-Band Attention	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.56	Distributional Loss for Robust Classification	arxiv 2026-06-11	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.56	A Stabilized Path-Space Approach to Diffusion-Based Posterior Sampling	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.56	Trapped Surface as a Cosmic Censor	arxiv 2026-06-11	248_037 State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	10%
0.56	Quantum Gravity Induced Entanglement from Propagating Gravitons	arxiv 2026-06-11	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.56	Higher Dimensional Loop Quantum Black hole in de Sitter Spacetime: Quasinormal Modes and Shadow Signatures	arxiv 2026-06-10	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.56	Lattice chiral non-Abelian gauge symmetry via bosonization	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.56	FDA ANDA090382: LOSARTAN POTASSIUM (LOSARTAN POTASSIUM) — STRIDES PHARMA	fda 2026-06-08	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.56	FDA NDA021980: FLUORESCITE (FLUORESCEIN SODIUM) — ALCON LABS INC	fda 2026-06-10	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.56	Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore	Semis/Products	71%
0.56	LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.56	Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.56	Set Handicap: Munar (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5)(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.56	Will someone manigram me 500 mana?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-06-13	242_042 Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.56	GUS THE T-REX vs. KLIMT'S PORTRAIT OF GERTRUD LOEW: which will sell for more at auction?	manifold 2026-06-13	235_036 AI-generated images will eliminate commercial photography, illustrators and stock image platforms. Peter Diamandis	Media/Ads	51%
0.56	Will someone streak during the World Cup 2026 final match?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-06-13	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	FDA NDA022231: TERLIVAZ (TERLIPRESSIN ACETATE) — MALLINCKRODT IRELAND	fda 2026-06-10	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.56	facebookresearch/fairseq v0.12.2	github_release 2022-06-27	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.56	Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	—	10%
0.56	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-22	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.56	How far will the Knicks go in the 2026-27 NBA season?	manifold 2026-06-15	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	31%
0.56	Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.56	Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.56	Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-06-16	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.56	Free Lottery (Cosmic Microwave Background)(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-16	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.56	Which Scores Will Happen on June 16th FIFA World Cup 2026	manifold 2026-06-15	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.56	Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) (CIK 0001571996)	edgar_8k 2026-06-16	248_047 Memory companies' stock prices will continue increasing despite algorithmic efficiency gains. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	39%
0.56	ActiveSAM: Image-Conditional Class Pruning for Fast and Accurate Open-Vocabulary Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-15	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.56	Entity Labels Are Not Entity Signals: A Framework for Observable Relevance in Document Re-Ranking	arxiv 2026-06-14	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.56	Neural Bayesian Anomaly Mitigation: A Robust Loss that Doubles as an Unsupervised Contamination Classifier	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.56	Self-gravitating electromagnetic waves in the dark bubble model	arxiv 2026-06-15	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.56	ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-14	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.56	Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.56	Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.56	Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky(market prob: 82%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.56	Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day until July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)(market prob: 54%)	manifold 2026-06-17	230_003 AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.56	Which Scores Will Happen on June 17th FIFA World Cup 2026	manifold 2026-06-17	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	Non-negative Elastic Net Decoding for Information Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-16	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.56	Large primordial non-Gaussianity from transient turns in Higgs-$R^2$ inflation	arxiv 2026-06-16	FUT_025 Runaway economic feedback loop 2026-2031: cheaper renewable energy incentivizes wider adoption, increases global manufacturing volumes, drives prices down further along Wright's curve. Political independence means energy transition continues regardless... Ramez Naam	Energy	52%
0.56	Probing the QCD Phase Structure with Dileptons from SIS to LHC Energies	arxiv 2026-06-16	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.56	A Double--Scaling Large--$d$ Saddle of BFSS/BMN Matrix Quantum Mechanics	arxiv 2026-06-16	235_040 Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	26%
0.56	Hamiltonian formalism for Bose excitations in a plasma with a non-Abelian interaction: plasmon bremsstrahlung	arxiv 2026-06-16	230_033 Intelligence explosion shockwave propagates from math → physical sciences → planetary systems, Dyson swarm by early 2030s. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.56	Black hole equations of state and response functions	arxiv 2026-06-15	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	28%
0.56	Supersymmetric geometry in non-supersymmetric effective field theory	arxiv 2026-06-15	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.56	Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.56	Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva(market prob: 95%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.56	Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.56	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.56	Will Fable be reenabled for Europeans before Americans?(market prob: 1%)	manifold 2026-06-18	246_050 Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.56	Which Scores Will Happen on June 18th FIFA World Cup 2026	manifold 2026-06-17	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.56	CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV) (CIK 0001769628)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	237_016 A specific-sliver OpenClaw-powered vertical SaaS could become a $5 million company overnight for ~$200 subscription cost. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	43%
0.56	Accenture plc (ACN) (CIK 0001467373)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.56	EchoStar CORP (SATS) (CIK 0001415404)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.56	Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) (CIK 0001571996)	edgar_8k 2026-06-17	248_047 Memory companies' stock prices will continue increasing despite algorithmic efficiency gains. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	39%
0.56	Aligning Implied Statements for Implicit Hate Speech Generalizability with Context-Bounded Semi-hard Negative Mining	arxiv 2026-06-17	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.56	Aligning Implied Statements for Implicit Hate Speech Generalizability with Context-Bounded Semi-hard Negative Mining	arxiv 2026-06-17	248_049 Humans (weaker intelligences) can successfully align/contain super-intelligences via weak-to-strong supervision. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.56	Topological spectral form factor reveals emergent non-Hermitian single-particle $\mathcal{PT}$ transitions from many-body quantum chaos	arxiv 2026-06-17	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.56	Topological spectral form factor reveals emergent non-Hermitian single-particle $\mathcal{PT}$ transitions from many-body quantum chaos	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.56	Spectral Functions of Lorentzian Quantum Gravity	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.56	Transient Bias for CP Domain Wall Decay and Dark Matter	arxiv 2026-06-17	234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.56	A matrix free action of the Ashtekar-Lewandowski volume operator of loop quantum gravity	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.56	Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.56	Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.56	Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs(market prob: 86%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.56	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.56	EFIQA: Explainable Fundus Image Quality Assessment via Anatomical Priors	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.56	Metastable and critical-bubble branches of Coleman--Weinberg monopoles	arxiv 2026-06-18	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.56	Partial-wave unitarity and long-range interactions	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.56	Calabi-Yau Orientifold Hypersurfaces and their F-theory Uplifts	arxiv 2026-06-17	232_056 Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.56	FDA NDA021078: MALARONE PEDIATRIC (ATOVAQUONE) — GLAXOSMITHKLINE	fda 2026-06-10	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.56	Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.56	Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day until July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-06-20	230_003 AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.56	Who will score the USMNT’s next goal at the 2026 World Cup?	manifold 2026-06-19	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	31%
0.56	Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.56	The Whaleslayer Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-21	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.56	New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.56	Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.56	Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 Senegal?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.56	Erling Haaland: 1+ goals(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.56	Golf: Who will win the 2027 US Open?	manifold 2026-06-22	S_RECESSION_2027 NBER recession declared 2027	macro_recession	30%
0.56	Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.56	Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.56	Total Penalty Shootouts in FIFA World Cup	manifold 2026-06-23	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.56	Roadtrip: Where will I end up in one year?	manifold 2026-06-23	239_009 People will be on Mars within 10 years Elon Musk	Space	31%
0.56	Who will "win" the Whaleslayer Coinflip prize? [Add yourself!]	manifold 2026-06-22	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.56	Differential Spectral Damping Gap Adaptive Regularization for Ill-Conditioned Kernel Methods	arxiv 2026-06-22	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.56	moBERTo: A Modern Encoder for Portuguese via Continued Pretraining of ModernBERT	arxiv 2026-06-21	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.56	Automated sign detection across the Electronic Babylonian Library: A large-scale dataset and end-to-end cuneiform OCR pipeline	arxiv 2026-06-21	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.56	NLO Angular Impulse and Leading Singularities to all orders in spin for Kerr Black Holes	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.56	Dark matter from the quadratic spinor Lagrangian II: A spin-3/2 no-go and the uniqueness of the spin-1/2 candidate	arxiv 2026-06-22	229_047 Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planned. Brett Adcock	AI	77%
0.56	FDA ANDA218016: SOLRIAMFETOL HYDROCHLORIDE (SOLRIAMFETOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — HIKMA	fda 2026-06-17	CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	20%
0.56	FDA ANDA200343: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — GENUS	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.56	FDA ANDA204937: BUPRENORPHINE (BUPRENORPHINE) — WATSON LABS TEVA	fda 2026-06-18	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.56	FDA NDA211913: ABSORICA LD (ISOTRETINOIN) — SUN PHARM	fda 2026-06-12	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.56	Penguins vs. Flyers(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.56	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.56	LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.56	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.56	Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	50%
0.56	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-26	CMQ_018 By 2027-2028, the strategic value of superintelligence + impossible trillion-dollar infrastructure cost will trigger government consolidation of AGI development — 'The Project'. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Geopolitics	35%
0.56	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.56	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.56	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-02	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.56	Will the UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	CMQ_018 By 2027-2028, the strategic value of superintelligence + impossible trillion-dollar infrastructure cost will trigger government consolidation of AGI development — 'The Project'. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Geopolitics	35%
0.56	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.56	San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.56	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang	Policy/Semis	66%
0.56	Do you like 4% odds?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-04-27	242_028 AI could automate 25% of US work hours Goldman Sachs	Labor/Jobs	39%
0.56	Will the 2026 Kentucky Derby have a close finish?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-04-27	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.56	Will the 2026 Kentucky Derby have a close finish?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-04-27	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.56	Will ""Thinkhaven"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-27	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.56	Will Argentina start another war over the Falklands before April 2027?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-04-26	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.56	Will Israel attack Iraq in 2030?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-04-26	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.56	When will Principal's Day at Phillips Exeter Academy be in 2026? (Cash prize)	manifold 2026-04-26	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.56	APUSH cheater prop bets	manifold 2026-04-25	247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	46%
0.56	Will pine sell out to CS?(market prob: 77%)	manifold 2026-04-25	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.56	will drake delay iceman from his proposed date (15th may)(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-04-25	SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk	AI/AGI	19%
0.56	will drake delay iceman from his proposed date (15th may)(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-04-25	SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	39%
0.56	RAMBUS INC (RMBS) (CIK 0000917273)	edgar_8k 2026-04-29	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.56		gdelt 2026-04-30	247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	46%
0.56	moelis mc q1 2026 earnings 021154258.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.56	victims families sue openai over 212750411.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.56		gdelt 2026-04-30	233_008 Public school adoption of Alpha model will take place in the second decade, not the first. Joe Liemandt	Education	32%
0.56	5268028 %D8%B5%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%85 %D8%AA%D9%83%D9%86%D9%88%D9%84%D9%88%D8%AC%D9%8A %D8%B1%D9%81%D9%8A%D8%B9 %D8%A3%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%85 %D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%AD%D8%A7%D9%83%D9%85	gdelt 2026-04-30	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.56	Oilers vs. Ducks(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.56	Lightning vs. Canadiens(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.56	LoL: Solary vs ZYB Esport (BO1) - LFL Regular Season(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.56	Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.56	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2025-11-14	247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis	AI	71%
0.56	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 100m?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.56	Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.56	Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.56	Will codex or Claude code be shown to mass deleting someone's hard drive if it suspects biorisk or illegal activity?(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-05-01	CMQ_047 Autonomous code agents and AutoResearch systems will close the loop on complex scientific experimentation without human-in-the-loop. Andrej Karpathy	AI	51%
0.56	Will I restrict my food-buying behaviour in line with this market in May?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-05-01	243_041 Delivery/retail (non-food) business growing much faster than expected Dara Khosrowshahi	Consumer	48%
0.56	Will I get 90%+ in all my courses this semester?(market prob: 90%)	manifold 2026-05-01	240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.56	If the PM after the next election is Reform, will hitting children be banned in England within 5 years?(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-04-30	242_016 TV ad campaign against human driving in 3-5 years will drive voting to ban it Dave Blundin	Auto/Transport	46%
0.56	Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.56	Abidjan 2: Gauthier Onclin vs Eliakim Coulibaly(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.56	Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.56	LoL: FURIA Esports vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.56	The Day: Naoya Inoue vs. Junto Nakatani(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.56	Flyers vs. Hurricanes(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.56	LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.56	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 90m?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.56	How many members will the UK Liberal Democrats have at the start of 2029?	manifold 2026-05-02	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.56	Will the US and Iran sign a formal end-of-war agreement by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 43%)	manifold 2026-04-29	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.56	Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.56	Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	SEM_003 Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Energy/Compute	86%
0.56	Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.56	Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	SEM_003 Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Energy/Compute	86%
0.56	Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.56	Will I stay in masters this season?(market prob: 89%)	manifold 2026-05-03	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.56	LoL: Shifters vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.56	Flyers vs. Hurricanes(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis	AI	48%
0.56	Will I place last in Masters Season 37?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-05-04	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.56	Will the montreal canadiens win the stanley cup in 2026?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-05-04	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	Will May 2026 be Denver snowiest month of the entire 2025 to 2026 winter season(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-04	SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk	AI/AGI	19%
0.56	Rudy Giuliani dead by end of May 2026?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-03	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.56	CORNING INC /NY (GLW) (CIK 0000024741)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.56	CORNING INC /NY (GLW) (CIK 0000024741)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.56	Voyager Technologies, Inc./DE (VOYG) (CIK 0001788060)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	28%
0.56	Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.56	Francavilla: Andrea Guerrieri vs Chun-Hsin Tseng(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.56	Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	234_004 Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.56	Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs R2 Esports Club (BO3) - CCT South America Series #1 Group Stage(market prob: 69%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.56	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.56	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.56	LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs INTZ e-Sports - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.56	Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) (CIK 0001679788)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.56	Marqeta, Inc. (MQ) (CIK 0001522540)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.56	PFIZER INC (PFE) (CIK 0000078003)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.56	MERCURY SYSTEMS INC (MRCY) (CIK 0001049521)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.56	MERCURY SYSTEMS INC (MRCY) (CIK 0001049521)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	FDA ANDA205035: TRANEXAMIC ACID (TRANEXAMIC ACID) — EUGIA PHARMA	fda 2026-04-28	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.56	FDA ANDA219973: PANTOPRAZOLE SODIUM (PANTOPRAZOLE SODIUM) — SHUANGCHENG	fda 2026-04-22	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.56	FDA ANDA206252: QUETIAPINE FUMARATE (QUETIAPINE FUMARATE) — ACCORD HLTHCARE	fda 2026-04-22	232_036 AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE. Ben Horowitz	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.56	FDA ANDA080983: SONAZINE (CHLORPROMAZINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — SAPTALIS PHARMS	fda 2026-04-14	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.56	FDA ANDA205081: MILNACIPRAN HYDROCHLORIDE (MILNACIPRAN HYDROCHLORIDE) — AMNEAL PHARMS	fda 2026-04-14	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.56	FDA NDA217369: ZURZUVAE (ZURANOLONE) — BIOGEN INC	fda 2026-04-20	SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore	Semis/Products	71%
0.56	FDA ANDA205571: CARBAMAZEPINE (CARBAMAZEPINE) — ZYDUS PHARMS	fda 2026-04-29	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.56	meta-llama/llama-api-typescript v0.1.4	github_release 2025-08-13	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.56	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.19.1	github_release 2025-08-13	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.56	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.16.2	github_release 2024-06-28	248_032 First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be non-destructive. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	42%
0.56	1x-technologies/halodi-unity-package-creator 0.2.10	github_release 2020-11-10	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.56	1x-technologies/halodi-unity-package-creator 0.2.3	github_release 2020-05-25	CMQ_044 Future data-center architectures optimized for agentic workflows may require 1:2 or even 2:1 CPU-to-GPU ratio (vs historical 1:12) to prevent GPU idle-waiting. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	65%
0.56	1x-technologies/halodi-unity-package-registry-manager 0.1.1	github_release 2020-06-12	CYB_010 Agentic commerce will radically redistribute — not grow — the global commerce stack, severely affecting traditional software platforms, global payment processors, digital advertising networks, and physical logistics providers. Consumer delegation of pr... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	70%
0.56	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.56	Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.56	Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Division One (BO5) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Playoffs(market prob: 65%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.56	Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	42%
0.56	LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.56	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.56	Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.56	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.56	Will the NFL use replacement (non-NFLRA) on-field officials in any Week 1 game of the 2026 regular season?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-05-01	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.56	Revisiting semiclassical scalar QED in 1+1 dimensions	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.56	FDA ANDA214956: GABAPENTIN (GABAPENTIN) — ASCENT PHARMS INC	fda 2026-04-24	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.56	FDA ANDA078956: LAMOTRIGINE (LAMOTRIGINE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA	fda 2026-04-09	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.56	FDA ANDA218417: DEXTROMETHORPHAN POLISTIREX (DEXTROMETHORPHAN POLISTIREX) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-04-15	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.56	FDA ANDA212212: BUDESONIDE AND FORMOTEROL FUMARATE DIHYDRATE (BUDESONIDE) — TEVA PHARMS USA INC	fda 2026-04-23	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.56	FDA BLA761412: LANGLARA (INSULIN GLARGINE-ALDY) — SUNSHINE LAKE PHARMA CO LTD	fda 2026-04-29	AI_031 AGI will be defined by its ability to autonomously formulate novel scientific hypotheses — effectively solving '100 years of biology' in a fraction of the historical time required, via continuous hypothesis-generation and experimental iteration. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	51%
0.56	FDA ANDA219013: ATROPINE SULFATE (ATROPINE SULFATE) — EDENBRIDGE PHARMS	fda 2026-04-15	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.56	FDA ANDA208055: LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE (LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — TORRENT	fda 2026-04-13	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.56	FDA BLA761059: HADLIMA (ADALIMUMAB-BWWD) — SAMSUNG BIOEPIS CO LTD	fda 2026-04-29	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.56	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Barbora Krejcikova(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.56	Hurricanes vs. Flyers(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.56	What will be the Opening Weekend Domestic Gross of 'Mortal Kombat II' (2026)?	manifold 2026-05-07	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.56	Will my matcha drinking tall Tate Mcrae obsessed abb friend pull anyone at MOP(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-07	246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.56	FDA ANDA220326: VILOXAZINE HYDROCHLORIDE (VILOXAZINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — APPCO PHARMA LLC	fda 2026-04-28	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.56	FDA NDA216579: SYMBICORT AEROSPHERE (BUDESONIDE) — ASTRAZENECA	fda 2026-04-27	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.56	facebookresearch/faiss v1.5.3	github_release 2019-06-24	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.56	facebookresearch/faiss v1.5.3	github_release 2019-06-24	S_ASI_SLOW_2040PLUS ASI slow: post-2040 / soft takeoff	asi_recursive_self_improvement	60%
0.56	facebookresearch/balance 0.6.0	github_release 2023-04-05	CMQ_024 'Tokens per Watt' is the defining Key Performance Indicator (KPI) for the modern digital economy. Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	54%
0.56	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yannick Hanfmann vs Luciano Darderi(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.56	Spread: Spurs (-4.5)(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.56	Will eBay use the domain half.com to respond to the GameStop offer before July?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-08	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.56	Will the US-Iran ceasefire be formally declared ended by US or Iran before July 31, 2026?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-05	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.56	Positivity of the gravitational path integral implies the axionic weak gravity conjecture	arxiv 2026-05-06	234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.56	Nonthermal leptogenesis via cosmological gravitational particle production is tested by inflationary gravitational waves	arxiv 2026-05-06	245_013 Artificial wombs will eventually enable productionized de-extinction species Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	41%
0.56	Baby Universe in a Coupled SYK Model	arxiv 2026-05-06	233_014 Over the next 12 years, half of kids will have neural links while others won't, creating divergence. Dave Blundin	Biotech/Longevity	45%
0.56	Bound states and deconfinement from Romans supergravity with magnetic flux	arxiv 2026-05-06	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.56	Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.56	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.56	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexei Popyrin vs Jakub Mensik(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.56	UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims)(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-04-22	241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.56	TERAWULF INC. (WULF) (CIK 0001083301)	edgar_8k 2026-05-08	242_054 Terafab initial capex $25B, total buildout $150B+ minimum, possibly $500B Peter Diamandis	AI	45%
0.56	Marqeta, Inc. (MQ) (CIK 0001522540)	edgar_8k 2026-05-08	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.56	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-16	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.56	LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	39%
0.56	LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	39%
0.56	Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.56	Dota 2: PlayTime vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.56	LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular Season(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.56	LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular Season(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi	Other	53%
0.56	Golden Knights vs. Ducks(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.56	Thunder vs. Lakers(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.56	Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.56	Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.56	Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 32m?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.56	Who will win the May 2026 grand sumo tournament?	manifold 2026-05-10	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.56	Pistons vs. Cavaliers(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.56	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Naomi Osaka vs Iga Swiatek(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027	energy_grid_expansion	40%
0.56	New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.56	Bill Clinton divorce by June 30?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-12-19	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.56	Oeiras 4: Tomas Barrios vs Michael Zheng(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.56	MUELLER INDUSTRIES INC (MLI) (CIK 0000089439)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	CMQ_053 Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-labor shortages in automotive manufacturing. Brett Adcock	Robotics	55%
0.56	GENERAL DYNAMICS CORP (GD) (CIK 0000040533)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.56	MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA) (CIK 0001507605)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.56	Coursera, Inc. (COUR) (CIK 0001651562)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.56	Blink Charging Co. (BLNK) (CIK 0001429764)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.56	Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-03	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.56	Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs HereWeGoAgain (BO3) - CCT South America Series 2 Group Stage(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.56	Zagreb: Thiago Monteiro vs Andres Andrade(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.56	How many times in the Australian Treasurer's Budget Speech is "oil" mentioned?	manifold 2026-05-11	FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam	Energy	45%
0.56	Veritone, Inc. (VERI) (CIK 0001615165)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.56	ZEBRA TECHNOLOGIES CORP (ZBRA) (CIK 0000877212)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore	Semis/Products	71%
0.56	FDA ANDA072734: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — HIKMA	fda 2026-05-05	CMQ_035 HBM4 16-layer stack design (required for Vera Rubin) places unprecedented yield and capacity strain on global memory fabrication facilities. Jensen Huang / Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.56	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 2.1.0	github_release 2025-11-11	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.56	Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight Riders(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elina Svitolina vs Elena Rybakina(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.56	Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A(market prob: 73%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.56	Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.56	Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.56	Will "The Owned Ones" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-12	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.56	Task-Adaptive Embedding Refinement via Test-time LLM Guidance	arxiv 2026-05-12	241_048 AI/LLM will be the expression platform for student art, music, writing Eric Schmidt	Education	51%
0.56	Estimating Subgraph Importance with Structural Prior Domain Knowledge	arxiv 2026-05-12	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.56	FIS-DiT: Breaking the Few-Step Video Inference Barrier via Training-Free Frame Interleaved Sparsity	arxiv 2026-05-12	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.56	St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics(market prob: 73%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.56	Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang	Policy/Semis	66%
0.56	Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.56	Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.56	Dota 2: PlayTime vs REKONIX (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.56	Will "The Iliad Intensive Course Materials" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-12	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.56	Unity Software Inc. (U) (CIK 0001810806)	edgar_8k 2026-05-14	239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk	AI	47%
0.56	LIGHTBRIDGE Corp (LTBR) (CIK 0001084554)	edgar_8k 2026-05-14	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.56	FDA ANDA091037: VALPROIC ACID (VALPROIC ACID) — SUN PHARM INDS LTD	fda 2026-05-05	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.56	FDA ANDA215971: DEUTETRABENAZINE (DEUTETRABENAZINE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-05-01	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.56	meta-llama/llama-api-python v0.5.0	github_release 2025-10-01	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.56	meta-llama/llama-api-python v0.2.0	github_release 2025-08-12	IND_005 Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~... Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	33%
0.56	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.56	Counter-Strike: paiN vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.56	Will Rae Huang win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	242_025 60% of LA parking will be released, becoming gardens and parks Dave Blundin	Real Estate	45%
0.56	Spread: Spurs (-5.5)(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.56	Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 0.5(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	If Andy Burnham loses the makerfield by election, will he….?	manifold 2026-05-15	231_039 Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach. Peter Diamandis	AI	47%
0.56	CORNING INC /NY (GLW) (CIK 0000024741)	edgar_8k 2026-05-15	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.56	GeoViSTA: Geospatial Vision-Tabular Transformer for Multimodal Environment Representation	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_016 Rural landscapes in the Global South move beyond conventional food production toward highly complex, multifunctional systems — agentic AI platforms synthesize localized ecological data to enable precision organic farming, transparent environmental prot... Peter Dannenberg	Other	42%
0.56	Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.56	Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.56	Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.56	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	242_025 60% of LA parking will be released, becoming gardens and parks Dave Blundin	Real Estate	45%
0.56	Which of the following major Supreme Court cases will be resolved before June?	manifold 2026-05-16	247_004 Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit conversions Dave Blundin	AI	39%
0.56	Will the 2026 NBA Finals go to a Game 7?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-16	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.56	Will Embroidery win the G1 Victoria Mile at Tokyo?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-05-16	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.56	Mina the Hollower MEGAMARKET	manifold 2026-05-16	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.56	FDA ANDA217432: FAMOTIDINE (FAMOTIDINE) — LUPIN	fda 2026-05-12	248_030 FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.56	facebookresearch/sound-spaces v0.1.2	github_release 2021-06-22	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.56	facebookresearch/hydra v1.3.0	github_release 2022-12-08	235_010 Plugins/marketplaces will get built into baseline models and won't need to exist independently. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.56	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-03-01	230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.56	Which team will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	manifold 2026-05-17	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.56	Which team will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	manifold 2026-05-17	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.56	Who will be DKI Jakarta rank 1 on the provincial round of 2026 Indonesia National Math Olympiad?	manifold 2026-05-14	SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Mathematics	15%
0.56	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.56	Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.56	Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.56	Coursera, Inc. (COUR) (CIK 0001651562)	edgar_8k 2026-05-18	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.56	AAON, INC. (AAON) (CIK 0000824142)	edgar_8k 2026-05-18	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.56	Xylem Inc. (XYL) (CIK 0001524472)	edgar_8k 2026-05-18	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.56	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?(market prob: 94%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.56	Counter-Strike: ex-KRÜ Esports vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Series 2 Group Stage(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.56	What month will be most active in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?	manifold 2026-05-19	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.56	What month will be most active in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?	manifold 2026-05-19	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.56	FDA ANDA218691: CEFIXIME (CEFIXIME) — FDC LTD	fda 2026-05-14	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.56	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.56	Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-14	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.56	Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-28	230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.56	Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-28	FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Energy	39%
0.56	Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-28	FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Energy	39%
0.56	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-28	230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.56	Spread: Spurs (-9.5)(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.56	F1 2026 Monaco Grand Prix Pole Position	manifold 2026-05-30	COD_ROB_001 Figure sustains a one-robot-per-hour Figure 03 production run-rate for at least 30 consecutive days by Q4 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	24%
0.56	Will Florida PALM go live as scheduled on January 11, 2027?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-05-30	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.56	Confess... something you do to hype yourself up when you need it. (Bilt Rent Free Jun 1, 2026)	manifold 2026-05-29	234_026 AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.56	Who will advance from the Washington 3rd Blanket Primary?	manifold 2026-05-26	FUT_014 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	55%
0.56	Will both Aeonglass and Infested Prism receive balance changes in the next Slay the Spire 2 Beta Patch?(market prob: 73%)	manifold 2026-05-25	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.56	Will I get a girlfriend before I make USNCO Camp in 2027?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-05-24	229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock	Robotics	14%
0.56	Xylem Inc. (XYL) (CIK 0001524472)	edgar_8k 2026-05-29	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.56	PARCEL: Pool-Anchored Resampling with Conditioned Elastic Queries for Efficient Vision-Language Understanding	arxiv 2026-05-28	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.56	HiKEY: Hierarchical Multimodal Retrieval for Open-Domain Document Question Answering	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.56	GiPL: Generative augmented iterative Pseudo-Labeling for Cross-Domain Few-Shot Object Detection	arxiv 2026-05-28	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.56	Hypercomplex Yang-Mills Theory as a Bipartite Gauge Field Model	arxiv 2026-05-28	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.56	Asymptotically Safe Gravitational Form Factors from the Proper-Time Flow Equation	arxiv 2026-05-27	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.56	FDA BLA103792: HERCEPTIN (TRASTUZUMAB) — GENENTECH	fda 2026-05-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.56	FDA ANDA210040: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — AMNEAL PHARMS	fda 2026-05-27	247_041 AI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	55%
0.56	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.56	Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	39%
0.56	LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	CYB_010 Agentic commerce will radically redistribute — not grow — the global commerce stack, severely affecting traditional software platforms, global payment processors, digital advertising networks, and physical logistics providers. Consumer delegation of pr... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	70%
0.56	T20 Blast: Warwickshire vs Northamptonshire(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.56	LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs(market prob: 84%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.56	Will Trump visit Pakistan by June 30?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.56	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	234_034 Andrew Yang predicts 20-50% of 70M US white collar workers could be displaced in 1-2 years Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.56	Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.56	Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.56	Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.56	Will David Njoku play for Los Angeles Chargers in 2026-27?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-03-02	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.56	Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.56	Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.56	Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis	AI	71%
0.56	Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?(market prob: 77%)	polymarket 2025-12-22	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.56	Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.56	Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-06-01	FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	62%
0.56	Will I stay in Masters this season?(market prob: 88%)	manifold 2026-06-01	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.56	Will I stay in masters this season?(market prob: 55%)	manifold 2026-06-01	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.56	Who will finish third in 2026 California Governor Primary?	manifold 2026-05-31	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	31%
0.56	Voyager Technologies, Inc./DE (VOYG) (CIK 0001788060)	edgar_8k 2026-06-01	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	28%
0.56	AXON ENTERPRISE, INC. (AXON) (CIK 0001069183)	edgar_8k 2026-06-01	240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.56	FDA ANDA217497: TRETINOIN (TRETINOIN) — AMNEAL	fda 2026-05-14	247_041 AI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	55%
0.56	FDA ANDA219529: CARBOPROST TROMETHAMINE (CARBOPROST TROMETHAMINE) — SOMERSET THERAPS LLC	fda 2026-05-27	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.56	FDA ANDA208058: LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE (LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — HERITAGE PHARMA AVET	fda 2026-05-14	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.56	facebookresearch/nle v0.6.0	github_release 2020-11-26	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.56	Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Maks Kasnikowski(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_AGI_SLOW_2031 AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path	agi_general_capability	25%
0.56	Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider(market prob: 88%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.56	Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.56	Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.56	How cheap will fully farm-raised eel get? / 完全養殖ウナギ、いくらまで安くなる？(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-30	237_030 Lobsters/AI agents will write to AWG with consensus on appropriate ethical parameters for spawning new lobsters, and he will accept consensus. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.56	NUSCALE POWER Corp (SMR) (CIK 0001822966)	edgar_8k 2026-06-02	INF_013 Natural gas will meet approximately 20% of the world's new power needs outside China through the late 2020s — serving as the deployable stopgap while small modular reactors, fuel cells, and battery arrays come online for hyperscaler 'Bring Your Own Pow... Morgan Stanley	Energy	59%
0.56	MUELLER INDUSTRIES INC (MLI) (CIK 0000089439)	edgar_8k 2026-06-02	CMQ_053 Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-labor shortages in automotive manufacturing. Brett Adcock	Robotics	55%
0.56	Self-Conditioned Positional HNSW for Overlap-Aware Retrieval in Chunked-Document RAG Systems: Method and Industrial Evidence-Quality Audit	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.56	FlatVPR: Plug-and-play Geo-linear Residual Adapter for Geometric Rectification of Foundation Model Feature Manifolds	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.56	FDA ANDA208283: EPLERENONE (EPLERENONE) — BRECKENRIDGE	fda 2026-05-20	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.56	FDA ANDA208283: EPLERENONE (EPLERENONE) — BRECKENRIDGE	fda 2026-05-20	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.56	FDA ANDA220055: ANDA220055 ((unspecified)) — MSN LABORATORIES PRIVATE LIMITED	fda 2026-05-20	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.56	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.3.2	github_release 2024-10-30	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.56	facebookresearch/facestar female_speaker_testset	github_release 2022-03-25	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.56	Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.56	Knicks vs. Spurs(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.56	Will the ECB raise interest rates at its June 11, 2026 meeting?(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-06-03	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.56	PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE GROUP INC (PEG) (CIK 0000788784)	edgar_8k 2026-06-03	SEM_048 OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support Stargate chip acquisition). OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)	AI/Corporate	80%
0.56	WESTERN DIGITAL CORP (WDC) (CIK 0000106040)	edgar_8k 2026-06-03	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.56	Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis	AI	48%
0.56	Will Kamaru Usman be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.56	Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.56	Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 174.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.56	Which is first in 2026: Starship refueling, New Glenn RTF, or Neutron?	manifold 2026-06-04	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	Voyager Technologies, Inc./DE (VOYG) (CIK 0001788060)	edgar_8k 2026-06-04	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	28%
0.56	Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.56	T20 Blast: Sussex vs Leicestershire(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.56	Joventut vs. Saski Baskonia(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.56	Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Minor Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.56	T20 Blast: Yorkshire vs Lancashire(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.56	Spurs vs. Knicks(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.56	Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.56	Beyond Soft Masks: Hard-Perturbation Mixup Explainer for Robust GNN Explainability	arxiv 2026-06-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.56	Addressing Imbalance in Multi-Label Data via Label-Specific Distance-based Oversampling	arxiv 2026-06-04	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.56	Domain-Aware Mispronunciation Detection and Diagnosis Using Language-Specific Statistical Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-04	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.56	Phenomenology of Inflaton-Driven Early QCD Confinement and Solution to Axion Isocurvature Problem	arxiv 2026-06-04	236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	35%
0.56	Thermal effective action for the $O(N)$ vector model	arxiv 2026-06-03	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.56	Dissipative Dark Energy can explain the DESI phantom crossing	arxiv 2026-06-03	SPC_026 Humanity becoming a truly multiplanetary species is strictly an era BEYOND the singularity (post-2045) — Kurzweil asserts only after humanity has 'exhausted the ability of here on Earth to create more intelligence' will the focus shift definitively to ... Ray Kurzweil	Space	46%
0.56	Athletics vs. Houston Astros(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.56	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.56	Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	CYB_028 The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... Mark Cuban	Markets/Stocks	48%
0.56	LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.56	Trane Technologies plc (TT) (CIK 0001466258)	edgar_8k 2026-06-05	246_036 Terafab will deliver 1 terawatt/year AI compute, 50x current global output of 20 gigawatt. Peter Diamandis	AI	46%
0.56	Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.56	Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.56	LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.56	Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.56	Contrastive Training with LLM-generated Near-Misses for Robust Code-Switching Speech Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.56	UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.56	Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.56	Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8?(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.56	Will "Supergirl" earn more than $50M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-06-08	238_004 Future Vision X-Prize will produce at least one (possibly two) feature films depicting the future Peter Diamandis	Media/Ads	55%
0.56	Prime Medicine, Inc. (PRME) (CIK 0001894562)	edgar_8k 2026-06-08	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.56	APPIAN CORP (APPN) (CIK 0001441683)	edgar_8k 2026-06-08	244_012 Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.56	WESTERN DIGITAL CORP (WDC) (CIK 0000106040)	edgar_8k 2026-06-08	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.56	AAON, INC. (AAON) (CIK 0000824142)	edgar_8k 2026-06-08	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.56	FDA ANDA220709: DEFLAZACORT (DEFLAZACORT) — CARNEGIE	fda 2026-05-28	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.56	FDA NDA209637: OZEMPIC (SEMAGLUTIDE) — NOVO	fda 2026-06-01	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.56	Israel closes its airspace by June 10?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.56	T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.56	Tucuman: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Santiago De La Fuente(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	CYB_028 The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... Mark Cuban	Markets/Stocks	48%
0.56	Tucuman: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Santiago De La Fuente(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.56	Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	242_058 Cybercab owners will generate revenue via autonomous ridesharing fleets Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	51%
0.56	Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.56	Will the US Fifth Fleet launch a ground attack on Iran before the FIFA World Cup 2026 ?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-06-09	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.56	When will Claude Fable return to Pro	manifold 2026-06-09	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.56	Will I be promoted to platinum at the end of this season?(market prob: 85%)	manifold 2026-06-09	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	WOLFSPEED, INC. (WOLF) (CIK 0000895419)	edgar_8k 2026-06-09	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.56	UNITED NATURAL FOODS INC (UNFI) (CIK 0001020859)	edgar_8k 2026-06-09	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	DECSELFMASK: Leveraging Unlabeled Text via Self-Relevance-Guided Masking for Decoder-Only Classification	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.56	Finite Massless Pentaboxes	arxiv 2026-06-08	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.56	FDA ANDA219604: DALBAVANCIN HYDROCHLORIDE (DALBAVANCIN HYDROCHLORIDE) — BE PHARMS	fda 2026-06-04	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.56	FDA ANDA208111: AZELASTINE HYDROCHLORIDE AND FLUTICASONE PROPIONATE (AZELASTINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — PADAGIS ISRAEL	fda 2026-06-03	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.56	FDA ANDA207429: SOTALOL HYDROCHLORIDE (SOTALOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — REGCON HOLDINGS	fda 2026-06-05	248_030 FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.56	Will George Pickens play for Cleveland Browns in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-27	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.56	Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.56	LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.56	Will George Pickens play for New Orleans Saints in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-27	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.56	LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.56	Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)(market prob: 20%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.56	Will Asu Almabayev be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.56	Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.56	Will Bernie Sanders officially run for president in 2028?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-06-10	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.56	Jet Lag: The Game Season Eighteen Truth Statements	manifold 2026-06-10	COD_SPC_001 Artemis III flies as an Earth-orbit HLS/EVA suit test mission in 2027, not a lunar landing Codex Research Pack	Space	44%
0.56	DECSELFMASK: Leveraging Unlabeled Text via Self-Relevance-Guided Masking for Decoder-Only Classification	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.56	The Yang-Baxter Equation for the Chiral Potts Model and Integrable Parafermions	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.56	Tuning A Rotating Black Hole Spectrum with Dark Matter Halo: Quasibound States, Scalar Cloud, Black Hole Bomb and Superradiant Scattering	arxiv 2026-06-09	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.56	FDA ANDA207961: DABIGATRAN ETEXILATE MESYLATE (DABIGATRAN ETEXILATE MESYLATE) — HETERO LABS LTD III	fda 2026-06-05	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.56	FDA ANDA217873: SUCCINYLCHOLINE CHLORIDE (SUCCINYLCHOLINE CHLORIDE) — STERISCIENCE	fda 2026-06-08	CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis	AI	60%
0.56	Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.56	Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	243_025 Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.56	Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.56	LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	20%
0.56	Will there be 4 hat tricks in the 2026 World Cup?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-06-11	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.56	will judge judy reach 100 years old?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-11	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.56	Coursera, Inc. (COUR) (CIK 0001651562)	edgar_8k 2026-06-11	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.56	Marqeta, Inc. (MQ) (CIK 0001522540)	edgar_8k 2026-06-11	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.56	WESTERN DIGITAL CORP (WDC) (CIK 0000106040)	edgar_8k 2026-06-11	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.56	Reddit, Inc. (RDDT) (CIK 0001713445)	edgar_8k 2026-06-10	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.56	Veritone, Inc. (VERI) (CIK 0001615165)	edgar_8k 2026-06-10	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.56	Trane Technologies plc (TT) (CIK 0001466258)	edgar_8k 2026-06-10	246_036 Terafab will deliver 1 terawatt/year AI compute, 50x current global output of 20 gigawatt. Peter Diamandis	AI	46%
0.56	Chubb Ltd (CB) (CIK 0000896159)	edgar_8k 2026-06-10	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.56	TERAWULF INC. (WULF) (CIK 0001083301)	edgar_8k 2026-06-10	242_054 Terafab initial capex $25B, total buildout $150B+ minimum, possibly $500B Peter Diamandis	AI	45%
0.56	Noise-Aware Framework for Correcting Corrupted Labels	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.56	uva-irlab-conv at SemEval-2026 Task 8: Multi-Turn RAG with Learned Sparse Retrieval and Listwise Reranking	arxiv 2026-06-10	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.56	Massive Open-Vocabulary Keyword Spotting	arxiv 2026-06-09	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.56	FDA NDA019193: PROVOCHOLINE (METHACHOLINE CHLORIDE) — METHAPHARM	fda 2026-06-06	CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis	AI	60%
0.56	FDA NDA019193: PROVOCHOLINE (METHACHOLINE CHLORIDE) — METHAPHARM	fda 2026-06-06	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.56	FDA NDA203985: AFINITOR DISPERZ (EVEROLIMUS) — NOVARTIS PHARM	fda 2026-06-01	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.56	Will Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.56	Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%