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79,555 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 116 of 148, 500 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.58	FDA NDA215833: PLUVICTO (LUTETIUM LU-177 VIPIVOTIDE TETRAXETAN) — NOVARTIS	fda 2026-04-07	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.58	FDA ANDA214216: EMTRICITABINE AND TENOFOVIR ALAFENAMIDE FUMARATE (EMTRICITABINE) — MACLEODS PHARMS LTD	fda 2026-04-07	248_030 FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.58	FDA ANDA214216: EMTRICITABINE AND TENOFOVIR ALAFENAMIDE FUMARATE (EMTRICITABINE) — MACLEODS PHARMS LTD	fda 2026-04-07	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.58	Spread: Thunder (-15.5)(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.58	Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-14	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.58	Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	30%
0.58	Spread: Thunder (-14.5)(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Spread: Thunder (-14.5)(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.58	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock	Robotics	62%
0.58	Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-02-17	231_011 The country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war. Peter Diamandis	Geopolitics	55%
0.58	When will Romania movie distribuitors will confirm The Amazing Digital Circus?	manifold 2026-05-07	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.58	When will Romania movie distribuitors will confirm The Amazing Digital Circus?	manifold 2026-05-07	SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk	AI/AGI	19%
0.58	Will a vaccine against the Andes virus (hantavirus) be tested in humans before the end of 2027?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-05-07	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.58	Will a vaccine against the Andes virus (hantavirus) be tested in humans before the end of 2027?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-05-07	IND_009 Artificial Superintelligence arrives by roughly 2030 — shortly thereafter all human illnesses will be cured 'much sooner than we think'; mechanism: AI not just predicting protein structures but generating novel biological designs revolutionizing drug d... Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	19%
0.58	When will Windows Market Share fall below 50% on desktop?	manifold 2026-05-07	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.58	Altar of Champions winner? (Grubby's WC3 streamer invitational)	manifold 2026-05-07	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.58	Free Lottery (GRB 170817A)(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-05-07	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Gradients with Respect to Semantics Preserving Embeddings Tell the Uncertainty of Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-06	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.58	CAR: Query-Guided Confidence-Aware Reranking for Retrieval-Augmented Generation	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	DoGMaTiQ: Automated Generation of Question-and-Answer Nuggets for Report Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-06	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.58	GEM: Graph-Enhanced Mixture-of-Experts with ReAct Agents for Dialogue State Tracking	arxiv 2026-05-06	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.58	NoisyCausal: A Benchmark for Evaluating Causal Reasoning Under Structured Noise	arxiv 2026-05-05	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.58	NoisyCausal: A Benchmark for Evaluating Causal Reasoning Under Structured Noise	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.3.3	github_release 2025-01-27	AUT_021 Defining software movement of 2026: startups building autonomous platforms specifically designed to clean/structure/continuously validate multimodal data — unstructured corporate sludge (PDFs, logs, videos, emails) causes autonomous agentic workflows t... Marc Andreessen	AI	57%
0.58	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.3.3	github_release 2025-01-27	IND_005 Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~... Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	33%
0.58	facebookresearch/faiss v1.13.0	github_release 2025-11-12	S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026 Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026	robotaxi_deployment	40%
0.58	facebookresearch/faiss v1.13.0	github_release 2025-11-12	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.58	facebookresearch/faiss v1.7.3	github_release 2022-11-30	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	facebookresearch/balance 0.12.1	github_release 2025-11-03	230_045 GDP will be replaced by an 'Abundance Capability Index' measuring capacity to solve problems. Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	39%
0.58	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.29.post3	github_release 2025-02-10	229_047 Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planned. Brett Adcock	AI	77%
0.58	Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp or more at the June 17, 2026 FOMC meeting?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-05-08	S_RECESSION_2026 NBER recession declared 2026	macro_recession	20%
0.58	Proactive Instance Navigation with Comparative Judgment for Ambiguous User Queries	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.58	Event-Causal RAG: A Retrieval-Augmented Generation Framework for Long Video Reasoning in Complex Scenarios	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.58	IRC-Bench: Recognizing Entities from Contextual Cues in First-Person Reminiscences	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.58	Architecture-agnostic Lipschitz-constant Bayesian header and its application to resolve semantically proximal classification errors with vision transformers	arxiv 2026-05-07	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.58	Architecture-agnostic Lipschitz-constant Bayesian header and its application to resolve semantically proximal classification errors with vision transformers	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.58	MINER: Mining Multimodal Internal Representation for Efficient Retrieval	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Expressivity of Bi-Lipschitz Normalizing Flows: A Score-Based Diffusion Perspective	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.58	Parser agreement and disagreement in L2 Korean UD: Implications for human-in-the-loop annotation	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.58	Challenges to Understanding Celestial Holography from the Bottom Up	arxiv 2026-05-06	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	First next-to-next-to-leading-order extraction of fragmentation functions for Lambda hyperons	arxiv 2026-05-06	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Constraints on the inflationary vacuum and reheating era from NANOGrav	arxiv 2026-05-06	S_COMPUTE_10GW_2028 Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028	compute_scale	40%
0.58	Baby Universe in a Coupled SYK Model	arxiv 2026-05-06	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Hawking Temperature, Sparsity and Energy Emission Rate of Regular Black Holes Supported by Primordial Dark Matter	arxiv 2026-05-06	241_024 Heat dissipation and radiation issues in space data centers will be addressed Eric Schmidt	Space	54%
0.58	Singlet-doublet dark matter induced radiative neutrino mass and TeV scale leptogenesis	arxiv 2026-05-06	242_002 Long-term petawatt compute will come only from lunar mass drivers Peter Diamandis	Space	37%
0.58	Molien--Weyl Singlet Counting and BFSS$_2$--Factorization in Gaussian Matrix QM	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Hierarchical entanglement transitions and hidden area-law sectors in quantum many-body dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-06	235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross	Consumer	42%
0.58	Hierarchical entanglement transitions and hidden area-law sectors in quantum many-body dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-06	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	FDA ANDA217239: TORSEMIDE (TORSEMIDE) — MICRO LABS	fda 2026-05-01	248_030 FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.58	FDA ANDA090508: FINASTERIDE (FINASTERIDE) — SUN PHARM	fda 2026-04-30	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.58	Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-15	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.58	Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-03-18	230_016 Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	55%
0.58	Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-03-18	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.58	UEFA Champions League: Unbeaten Champion(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-02-19	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.58	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-07-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner	Energy	57%
0.58	Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-14	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.58	Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-14	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.58	Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.58	Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Spread: Thunder (-10.5)(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.58	Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 16, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.58	Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.58	How long will Trump and Xi shake hands when they meet? [Polymarket]	manifold 2026-05-11	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	What will be the outcome of the EEOC suit against the NYT?	manifold 2026-05-11	247_004 Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit conversions Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.58	Will SF Prop A, June 2026, pass?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-05-11	238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	78%
0.58	Will Luke Wang PEA Class of 2027 make at least 1 HYPSM(market prob: 92%)	manifold 2026-05-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Will the UK introduce proportional representation for general elections before 2030?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-05-11	247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	46%
0.58	Who will own the pinky of @draaglom at EOY 2026?	manifold 2026-05-11	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.58	On what days will I be productive this week?	manifold 2026-05-10	234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.58	ALLIENT INC (ALNT) (CIK 0000046129)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	PLUG POWER INC (PLUG) (CIK 0001093691)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	CMQ_024 'Tokens per Watt' is the defining Key Performance Indicator (KPI) for the modern digital economy. Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	54%
0.58	facebookresearch/spdl v0.1.4	github_release 2025-09-10	IND_026 Non-coders and engineers alike must build for 'where the models are going, not where they are today' — 'this is the worst the models will ever be'. Next-generation models will 'eat your scaffolding for breakfast'; manual software configuration, standar... Kevin Weil	Labor/Jobs	61%
0.58	Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.58	Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	242_037 China will land on the moon before end of 2030 China (government)	Space	46%
0.58	Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 78%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Wild vs. Avalanche(market prob: 34%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will América FC vs. Vila Nova FC end in a draw?(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	How many minutes will CLASH (HS) be delayed by?	manifold 2026-05-12	248_040 Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	53%
0.58	D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) (CIK 0001907982)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.58	Nextpower Inc. (NXT) (CIK 0001852131)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	27%
0.58	FDA ANDA200217: LORAZEPAM (LORAZEPAM) — RISING	fda 2026-05-04	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.58	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.5.6	github_release 2024-12-05	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.58	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.5.6	github_release 2024-12-05	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.58	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.1.0	github_release 2023-08-07	AUT_021 Defining software movement of 2026: startups building autonomous platforms specifically designed to clean/structure/continuously validate multimodal data — unstructured corporate sludge (PDFs, logs, videos, emails) causes autonomous agentic workflows t... Marc Andreessen	AI	57%
0.58	Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will J.D. Vance attend Trump’s Xi summit?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.58	Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will The Gameoverse Pilot reach 25 million views by the end of June?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-12	242_058 Cybercab owners will generate revenue via autonomous ridesharing fleets Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	51%
0.58	D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) (CIK 0001907982)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.58	QDSB: Quantized Diffusion Schrödinger Bridges	arxiv 2026-05-12	231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.58	NOFE -- Neural Operator Function Embedding	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.58	Gradient Clipping Beyond Vector Norms: A Spectral Approach for Matrix-Valued Parameters	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.58	OverNaN: NaN-Aware Oversampling for Imbalanced Learning with Meaningful Missingness	arxiv 2026-05-12	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.58	FDA NDA020578: ZOLADEX (GOSERELIN ACETATE) — TERSERA	fda 2026-05-06	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	FDA NDA020515: ZOLADEX (GOSERELIN) — TERSERA	fda 2026-05-06	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	Will San Marino be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	LoL: GIANTX vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.58	Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs(market prob: 77%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	233_011 Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption. Joe Liemandt	Education	37%
0.58	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.58	Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	41%
0.58	MICROSOFT CORP (MSFT) (CIK 0000789019)	edgar_8k 2026-05-14	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.58	DisAgg: Distributed Aggregators for Efficient Secure Aggregation in Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.58	DisAgg: Distributed Aggregators for Efficient Secure Aggregation in Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Utility-Oriented Visual Evidence Selection for Multimodal Retrieval-Augmented Generation	arxiv 2026-05-13	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.58	ECG-NAT: A Self-supervised Neighborhood Attention Transformer for Multi-lead Electrocardiogram Classification	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.58	meta-llama/llama-api-python v0.1.2	github_release 2025-06-28	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.58	Valorant: Team Heretics vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Delhi Capitals win the 2026 Indian Premier League?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-24	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	LoL: Movistar KOI vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.58	Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.58	LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.58	Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Medvedev (+1.5)(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.58	Will SPY close above $750 on Friday, May 15, 2026?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-05-15	S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027	energy_grid_expansion	40%
0.58	RoSHAP: A Distributional Framework and Robust Metric for Stable Feature Attribution	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.58	GFMate: Empowering Graph Foundation Models with Test-time Prompt Tuning	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.58	IsoNet: Spatially-aware audio-visual target speech extraction in complex acoustic environments	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.58	Randomized Atomic Feature Models for Physics-Informed Identification of Dynamic Systems	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.58	Active Learners as Efficient PRP Rerankers	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_015 The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen resumes generated by other bot agents, completely removing the human connection required to accurately assess contextual experience — bot-on-bot recursive... Emad Mostaque	Labor/Jobs	86%
0.58	Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will Putin visit China by May 31?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-03-31	242_037 China will land on the moon before end of 2030 China (government)	Space	46%
0.58	Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-05-16?(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-04-19	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Will I get COVID ten times before getting hantavirus?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-05-16	236_047 New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	55%
0.58	FDA BLA761147: ENNUMO (PEGFILGRASTIM-PCCG) — ACCORD BIOPHARMA INC.	fda 2026-05-07	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.58	FDA NDA021379: ELIGARD KIT (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — TOLMAR	fda 2026-05-06	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	FDA NDA022173: ZYPREXA RELPREVV (OLANZAPINE PAMOATE) — CHEPLAPHARM	fda 2026-05-07	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	facebookresearch/hydra v1.2.0	github_release 2022-05-17	242_051 Dyson swarm compute infrastructure will be realized in a few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.58	facebookresearch/hydra v1.0.3	github_release 2020-09-23	238_020 Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	61%
0.58	facebookresearch/hydra v1.0.0rc4	github_release 2020-08-18	248_037 State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	10%
0.58	Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.58	Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 4 Winner(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Will I be able to convince Claudius Maximus in any Convince the Machine?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-17	232_019 AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. Ben Horowitz	AI	51%
0.58	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5(market prob: 40%)	polymarket 2026-05-17	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.58	Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.58	Bella Poarch - Ribcage (Official Music Video) on youtube will reach above 3M views before the end of May 2026??(market prob: 75%)	manifold 2026-05-18	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.58	Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	50%
0.58	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?(market prob: 34%)	polymarket 2026-03-30	FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam	Energy	45%
0.58	Will Hull City AFC vs. Southampton FC end in a draw?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-01-05	CMQ_061 Cuban proposed issuance of a US government-backed memecoin specifically to help reduce the United States' ~$37 trillion national debt. Mark Cuban	Crypto	4%
0.58	Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group B(market prob: 74%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	24%
0.58	Will "PARALLEL TALES by Asghar FARHADI" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-15	238_004 Future Vision X-Prize will produce at least one (possibly two) feature films depicting the future Peter Diamandis	Media/Ads	55%
0.58	Will Chennai Super Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-24	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.58	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A(market prob: 72%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A(market prob: 72%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will there be more than 100 cases of ebola in the US in 2026?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-19	SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock	Robotics	42%
0.58	Fed Hike or Cut First?	manifold 2026-05-19	TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)	—	30%
0.58	Will the 2026 NBA Finals reach a Game 6?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-18	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.58	Vision-OPD: Learning to See Fine Details for Multimodal LLMs via On-Policy Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Dual-Rate Diffusion: Accelerating diffusion models with an interleaved heavy-light network	arxiv 2026-05-18	INF_043 Unit cost of intelligence will drop at a rate far exceeding Moore's Law, driving explosive demand growth that filters out to edge devices and localized small models. Marc Andreessen	AI	47%
0.58	A Unified Framework for Data-Free One-Step Sampling via Wasserstein Gradient Flows	arxiv 2026-05-18	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.58	facebookresearch/momentum v0.1.109	github_release 2026-04-12	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.58	Will David Brekalo win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	T20 Blast: Sussex vs Middlesex(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #2 Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Martin Landaluce win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Raphael Collignon win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will Raphael Collignon win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-05	248_013 Model transparency decline will not reverse; US labs will keep going internal. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.58	Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-14	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.58	F1 2026 Monaco Grand Prix Pole Position	manifold 2026-05-30	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.58	Will Chicago A1 have any tiebreak quals at ARML 2026?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-05-27	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Trump's approval rating hit 37.4% or lower on Silver Bulletin by the end of June 2027?(market prob: 82%)	manifold 2026-05-25	234_034 Andrew Yang predicts 20-50% of 70M US white collar workers could be displaced in 1-2 years Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.58	What amounts of mana will manifolders managram me?	manifold 2026-05-24	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.58	Roblox Corp (RBLX) (CIK 0001315098)	edgar_8k 2026-05-29	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.58	MOSAIC CO (MOS) (CIK 0001285785)	edgar_8k 2026-05-29	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.58	Loong: A Human-Like Long Document Translation Agent with Observe-and-Act Adaptive Context Selection	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.58	iLoRA: Bayesian Low-Rank Adaptation with Latent Interaction Graphs for Microbiome Diagnosis	arxiv 2026-05-28	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	Genetically Aligned Patient Representations Improve Hematological Diagnosis	arxiv 2026-05-28	245_031 99% of synthetic biology focus will remain on human healthcare; similar tech applies more broadly Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	41%
0.58	Mitigating Hallucination in Vision-Language Models through Barrier-Regulated Adaptive Closed-form Steering	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.58	Efficient Test-Time Finetuning of LLMs via Convex Reconstruction and Gradient Caching	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.58	Statistical Embeddings for Similarity, Retrieval, and Interpretable Alignment of Numeric Tabular Datasets	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Instance-dependent Stochastic Lipschitz bandit	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	A Geometric View of SRC: Learning Representations for Stable Residual Inference	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.58	Latent Terms: Dense Retrievers Contain Trivially Extractable BM25-ready Zipfian Vocabularies	arxiv 2026-05-28	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.58	Latent Terms: Dense Retrievers Contain Trivially Extractable BM25-ready Zipfian Vocabularies	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.58	HyperPrecision: A Mathematica package for High-Precision Numerical Evaluation of Multivariate Hypergeometric Functions	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.58	Corner Quantization of 4D $BF$ Theory	arxiv 2026-05-28	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.58	Black Hole Photon Rings Saturate the Quantum Chaos Bound	arxiv 2026-05-28	231_032 Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	31%
0.58	FDA NDA208573: VENCLEXTA (VENETOCLAX) — ABBVIE	fda 2026-05-20	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.58	FDA ANDA204994: LACOSAMIDE (LACOSAMIDE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-05-22	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.58	FDA NDA214275: UPTRAVI (SELEXIPAG) — ACTELION	fda 2026-05-23	248_030 FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.58	FDA ANDA040191: MEPERIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE (MEPERIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — STRIDES PHARMA INTL	fda 2026-05-15	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	FDA BLA761111: NYVEPRIA (PEGFILGRASTIM-APGF) — HOSPIRA INC	fda 2026-05-21	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.58	Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Teichmann (+1.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.58	Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Galorys (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.58	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 67m and 73m?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Will US Average Gas Prices rise or fall 10 cents in one day in June 2026?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-05-31	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	US Gas Price $3.800 or below in June 2026?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-05-31	244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.58	Free Mana:All Options Resolves YES (You can add answer in numerical only)	manifold 2026-05-31	230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.58	Under US law, does dynamic linking against a library create a derivative work?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-31	INF_026 'Software 3.0' LLM infrastructure will operate like public utilities — requiring massive upfront capex (training compute, specialized hardware), specialized networking protocols for synchrony across hundreds of thousands of GPUs, and flawless uninterru... Andrej Karpathy	AI	70%
0.58	Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	242_013 Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	55%
0.58	Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	234_004 Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Set 1 Winner: Tiafoe vs Arnaldi(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.58	On what days will I be productive this week?	manifold 2026-06-01	234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.58	Resolves to floor(sqrt(traders)) mod 2(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-06-01	242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.58	Resolves to floor(sqrt(traders)) mod 2(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-06-01	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.58	D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) (CIK 0001907982)	edgar_8k 2026-06-01	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.58	D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) (CIK 0001907982)	edgar_8k 2026-06-01	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.58	REGAL REXNORD CORP (RRX) (CIK 0000082811)	edgar_8k 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	facebookresearch/nle v0.1.0	github_release 2020-05-06	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.58	Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google	AI	46%
0.58	Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5)(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross	Consumer	42%
0.58	Set Handicap: Fonseca (-2.5) vs Mensik (+2.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google	AI	46%
0.58	Who will send the most mana to @traders	manifold 2026-06-02	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.58	Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) (CIK 0001596532)	edgar_8k 2026-06-02	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.58	QUANTUM CORP /DE/ (QMCO) (CIK 0000709283)	edgar_8k 2026-06-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd. (HIVE) (CIK 0001720424)	edgar_8k 2026-06-02	SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore	Semis/Products	71%
0.58	FW-NKF: Frequency-Weighted Neural Kalman Filters	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_013 'Unsupervised' Tesla Robotaxis will achieve operational capability across 25-50% of the United States by end of 2026 — initial production slow but deployment scales to capture multi-trillion-dollar transportation market. Humanoid robots (Optimus) event... Elon Musk	Auto/Transport	15%
0.58	IntraShuffler: A Privacy Preserving Framework for Heterogeneous DP Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Uncertainty-Aware Graph Neural Reconstruction of Urban Temperature Fields from Sparse Sensors under Deployment Constraints	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Gate the Filter, Not the Message: Node-Channel Mixtures for Pre-Propagation GNNs	arxiv 2026-06-01	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.58	CRePE: Convolution-aware Relative Importance in Post-training Pruning with Efficient Search	arxiv 2026-06-01	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.58	SN-WER: Script-Normalized WER for Multi-Script Indic ASR Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.58	TalkTag: Fine-Grained Morphosyntactic Error Annotation for Transcribed Speech	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.58	LongAttnComp: Cross-Family Context Compression for Long-Context Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-31	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.58	DiscourseFlip: An Oblique Discourse-Level Opinion Manipulation Attack against Black-box Retrieval-Augmented Generation	arxiv 2026-05-31	CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil	AI	30%
0.58	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.3.1	github_release 2024-03-15	CYB_016 Rural landscapes in the Global South move beyond conventional food production toward highly complex, multifunctional systems — agentic AI platforms synthesize localized ecological data to enable precision organic farming, transparent environmental prot... Peter Dannenberg	Other	42%
0.58	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.2.2	github_release 2022-06-15	IND_005 Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~... Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	33%
0.58	Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.58	Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.58	Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.58	Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT) (CIK 0001674101)	edgar_8k 2026-06-03	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.58	FDA ANDA062800: CLINDAMYCIN PHOSPHATE (CLINDAMYCIN PHOSPHATE) — ALMAJECT	fda 2026-05-28	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.58	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Messi have more than or equal to G/A than Ronaldo in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 72%)	manifold 2026-06-04	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.58	PLUG POWER INC (PLUG) (CIK 0001093691)	edgar_8k 2026-06-04	CMQ_024 'Tokens per Watt' is the defining Key Performance Indicator (KPI) for the modern digital economy. Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	54%
0.58	Will Kelsey Plum have the highest assists per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	T20 Blast: Surrey vs Hampshire(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will Maxx Crosby play for Dallas Cowboys next?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock	Robotics	62%
0.58	Spread: Spurs (-3.5)(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-01-04	CMQ_061 Cuban proposed issuance of a US government-backed memecoin specifically to help reduce the United States' ~$37 trillion national debt. Mark Cuban	Crypto	4%
0.58	Will someone buy 1 block today on mysterybox.art?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-06-05	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.58	Benchmarking Open-Source Layout Detection Models for Data Snapshot Extraction from Institutional Documents	arxiv 2026-06-04	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.58	HDST-GNN: Heterogeneous Dynamic Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks for Multi-Object Tracking in UAV Aerial Imagery	arxiv 2026-06-04	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.58	InfoShield: Privacy-Preserving Speech Representations for Mental Health Screening via Information-Theoretic Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Equivariant Neural Belief Propagation	arxiv 2026-06-04	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.58	Non-Negative Matrix Factorization for Event Data	arxiv 2026-06-04	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.58	Learning to model pediatric asthma exacerbation from multiple risk factors: a case study in coastal Virginia	arxiv 2026-06-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	HoT-SSM:Higher-order Temporal Knowledge Graph Reasoning with State Space Models for Health Care	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.58	HoT-SSM:Higher-order Temporal Knowledge Graph Reasoning with State Space Models for Health Care	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.58	IA-RAG: Interval-Algebra-Driven Temporal Reasoning for Dynamic Knowledge Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	ColBERTSaR: Sparsified ColBERT Index via Product Quantization	arxiv 2026-06-04	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.58	MASF: A Multi-Model Adaptive Selection Framework for Abstractive Text summarization	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.58	BPDA-GMM: Bayesian Probabilistic Data Association via Gaussian Mixture Models for Semantic SLAM	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.58	A note on the 2D NLSM free energy	arxiv 2026-06-04	231_047 Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.58	Lecture notes: Introduction to the Off-shell Double Copy Program	arxiv 2026-06-04	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.58	Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Dylan Harper win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	QUANTUM CORP /DE/ (QMCO) (CIK 0000709283)	edgar_8k 2026-06-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	MICROSOFT CORP (MSFT) (CIK 0000789019)	edgar_8k 2026-06-05	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.58	ABM INDUSTRIES INC /DE/ (ABM) (CIK 0000771497)	edgar_8k 2026-06-05	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.58	Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage(market prob: 65%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	facebookresearch/detectron2 v0.5	github_release 2021-07-23	242_044 Base AI models becoming commodity; value migrates up the stack Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Graph Neural Network leveraging Higher-order Class Label Connectivity for Heterophilous Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-05	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.58	A robust PPG foundation model using multimodal physiological supervision	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_027 Integration of AI with advanced bio-sensing, quantum computing, and genomics enables humanity to achieve 'Longevity Escape Velocity' — tipping point where medical technology extends human lifespan faster than time passes; continuous biological surveill... Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	21%
0.58	FreeAnimate: Training-Free Human Image Animation with Preview-Guided Denoising	arxiv 2026-06-05	235_036 AI-generated images will eliminate commercial photography, illustrators and stock image platforms. Peter Diamandis	Media/Ads	51%
0.58	TALAN: Task-Aligned Latent Adaptation Networks for Targeted Post-Training of Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	DirectAudioEdit: Inversion-Free Text-Guided Audio Editing via Diffusion Prediction Contrast	arxiv 2026-06-05	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.58	Wick-connected theories and Lorentz violation	arxiv 2026-06-05	232_015 AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the next two years. Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.58	Will Tyreek Hill play for the Chicago Bears next?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.58	Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #4 Play-In(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	233_007 In 2026, Alpha will launch new schools beyond the flagship model based on the Timeback platform. Joe Liemandt	Education	51%
0.58	Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will i be banned from Manifold for market manipulation and/or fixing markets before the end of the year?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-06-08	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.58	Will I receive both my t shirt and my cap before the thirty first of August 2026 CEST 11:59 PM(market prob: 80%)	manifold 2026-06-08	238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick	Robotics	42%
0.58	D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) (CIK 0001907982)	edgar_8k 2026-06-08	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.58	DAVITA INC. (DVA) (CIK 0000927066)	edgar_8k 2026-06-08	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	PEGASYSTEMS INC (PEGA) (CIK 0001013857)	edgar_8k 2026-06-08	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Will LeBron James play for the Houston Rockets in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	238_049 Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	55%
0.58	Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup final be decided by penalties?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-06-09	231_008 AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.58	Which 2026 NEWSMAKER will run for president in 2028	manifold 2026-06-09	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.58	Free Mana Part 3:All Options Resolves to YES (you can add answers in alphabetical or numerical form)	manifold 2026-06-09	248_050 Opus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	45%
0.58	Visual Prompting Meets Feature Reconstruction-Based Anomaly Detection with Dual-Teacher Supervision	arxiv 2026-06-08	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Frequency-based Constrained Sampling for Interval Patterns	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.58	A Universal Dense Football Event Representation Based on TabTransformer	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Hybrid E-Assessment in Higher Education: Semi-Automated Grading of Paper-Based Written Examinations	arxiv 2026-06-07	AI_033 AI-powered mastery learning allows students to master traditional academics in merely 2 hours/day, achieving learning rates 2.3x faster than statistical models predict — freeing human educators to transition into 'Guides' focused on emotional support, ... MacKenzie Price	Education	66%
0.58	Rethinking the Divergence Regularization in LLM RL	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.58	BUDDY: BUdget-Driven DYnamic Depth Routing for Adaptive Large Language Model Inference	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Neural Legendre-Fenchel transform with Hessian Preconditioning	arxiv 2026-06-08	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.58	Detector Resolution and Observable Infrared Memory in QED	arxiv 2026-06-07	240_032 PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.58	FDA ANDA040385: TREXALL (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — BARR	fda 2026-05-27	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	FDA ANDA218096: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — APOTEX	fda 2026-06-03	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.58	Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi	Other	53%
0.58	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-16	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.58	Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore	Semis/Products	71%
0.58	Will I reach a streak of 100 in Wordle?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-06-09	232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	70%
0.58	On what days will I be productive this week?	manifold 2026-06-09	234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.58	Dep-LLM: Training-Free Depression Diagnosis via Evidence-Guided Structured Multi-factor with Reliable LLM Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.58	Dep-LLM: Training-Free Depression Diagnosis via Evidence-Guided Structured Multi-factor with Reliable LLM Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.58	Attention Expansion: Enhancing Keyphrase Extraction from Long Documents with Attention-Augmented Contextualized Embeddings	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.58	From Context-Aware to Conflict-Aware: Generalizing Contrastive Decoding for Knowledge Conflict in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.58	Automated Pronunciation Evaluation for Korean Toddler Speech using Speech Diarization and Self-Supervised Learning	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.58	Magnetic HIP-NN for spin dynamics in disordered itinerant magnets	arxiv 2026-06-09	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.58	Unsupervised Style Representation Learning for AI-Text Detection via Paraphrase Inversion	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.58	A Controlled Audit of Pretraining Contamination in Public Medical Vision-Language Benchmarks	arxiv 2026-06-08	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	ConvMemory v2: A Recall-Preserving Top-10 Evidence Reranker for Conversational Memory Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_008 Hyperscaler capital expenditure specifically on memory architecture leaps from approximately 8% of total AI capex (2023) to 30% by end-2026 — High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and DRAM face severe structural supply constraints with DRAM prices more than doub... Morgan Stanley	Semis	69%
0.58	Multilingual Word-Level Forced Alignment with Self-Supervised Representations and Learned Dynamic Programming	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Small Data, Big Noise: Adversarial Training for Robust Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Magic and entanglement in 1+1-dimensional SU(2) lattice gauge theory	arxiv 2026-06-08	247_037 Quantum computing will not break Bitcoin (Mike Saylor position) Michael Saylor	Crypto	54%
0.58	FDA ANDA217873: SUCCINYLCHOLINE CHLORIDE (SUCCINYLCHOLINE CHLORIDE) — STERISCIENCE	fda 2026-06-08	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.58	FDA ANDA200296: RISEDRONATE SODIUM (RISEDRONATE SODIUM) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-06-08	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	facebookresearch/fastText v0.2.0	github_release 2018-12-19	237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn	AI	41%
0.58	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.58	Spread: Germany (-3.5)(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2025-11-14	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.58	Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Will there be widespread fuel shortages in Moscow city before 1 December 2026?(market prob: 75%)	manifold 2026-06-11	SPC_012 SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical prerequisite for future Mars missions, enabling Starship depot-based beyond-LEO operations. Peter Diamandis	Space	41%
0.58	CATERPILLAR INC (CAT) (CIK 0000018230)	edgar_8k 2026-06-11	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.58	PLUG POWER INC (PLUG) (CIK 0001093691)	edgar_8k 2026-06-11	CMQ_024 'Tokens per Watt' is the defining Key Performance Indicator (KPI) for the modern digital economy. Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	54%
0.58	Illumination-Robust Camera-Based Heart-Rate Estimation for Physiological Sensing in Robots	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.58	Natural-Language Temporal Grounding in Hour-Long Videos is a Search Problem: A Benchmark and Empirical Decomposition	arxiv 2026-06-10	232_006 YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content. Peter Diamandis	Media/Ads	51%
0.58	Natural-Language Temporal Grounding in Hour-Long Videos is a Search Problem: A Benchmark and Empirical Decomposition	arxiv 2026-06-10	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.58	From Uniform to Learned Graph Priors: Diffusion for Structure Discovery	arxiv 2026-06-10	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	DeMix: Debugging Training Data with Mixed Data Error Types by Investigating Influence Vectors	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.58	StanceNakba Shared Task: Actor and Topic-Aware Stance Detection in Public Discourse	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil	AI	30%
0.58	I Understand How You Feel: Enhancing Deeper Emotional Support Through Multilingual Emotional Validation in Dialogue System	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.58	Deformable In-Hand Slip-Aware Tactile Sensor with Integrated Velocity, Force/Torque, and Pressure Map Sensing	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Lectures on Semiclassical Methods for Composite Operators	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.58	Lectures on Semiclassical Methods for Composite Operators	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_data_omat-0.2.0	github_release 2025-11-14	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT) (CIK 0001674101)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.58	Mod-Guide: An LLM-based Content Moderation Feedback System to Address Insensitive Speech toward Indigenous Ethnic and Religious Minority Communities	arxiv 2026-06-11	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.58	EPIG: Emotion-Based Prompting for Personalised Image Generation	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.58	DIMOS: Disentangling Instance-level Moving Object Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	A Zero-shot Generalized Graph Anomaly Detection Framework via Node Reconstruction	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.58	Clustering Node Attributed Networks with Graph Neural Networks and Self Learning	arxiv 2026-06-11	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Estimating Individualized Treatment Effects in Acute Ischemic Stroke with Causal Transformation Models (TRAM-DAG): A Multi-Centre Observational Study with External RCT Validation	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_006 Expert-level AI applied to biology/medicine will yield cures for cancer and Alzheimer's within 5-10 years, compressing a century of progress into a decade. Dario Amodei	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	Feature-preserving Latent-EnKF for Data Assimilation of Flows with Shocks	arxiv 2026-06-10	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	An End-to-End Hybrid Framework for Rumour Detection in Low-Resources Algerian Dialect	arxiv 2026-06-11	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	An End-to-End Hybrid Framework for Rumour Detection in Low-Resources Algerian Dialect	arxiv 2026-06-11	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.58	A Graphical Coaction for FRW Integrals from Partial/Relative Twisted (Co)homology	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.58	Black Hole Thermodynamics Meets On-Shell Amplitudes: Local Detailed Balance and Thermal Spectrum from Spin Universality and Unitarity	arxiv 2026-06-11	232_050 Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.58	Tachyonic Encore: A universal shift of inflationary observables	arxiv 2026-06-10	236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	35%
0.58	FDA ANDA090382: LOSARTAN POTASSIUM (LOSARTAN POTASSIUM) — STRIDES PHARMA	fda 2026-06-08	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets(market prob: 73%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Spread: Norway (-1.5)(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5(market prob: 76%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.58	Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 79%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.58	How many years between Starship 50 and Starship 500?	manifold 2026-06-14	246_015 Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). Elon Musk	Space	36%
0.58	Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 36%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.58	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.58	On what days will I be productive this week?	manifold 2026-06-15	234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.58	Will Z win the 2026 Fields Medal?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-06-15	231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.58	Will "Jackass: Best and Last" earn more than $25M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weeken(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-06-15	234_026 AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.58	When will U.S. government's export control directive on Fable be lifted?	manifold 2026-06-14	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.58	Une arme nucléaire sera-t-elle utilisée dans un conflit armé ou non avant le 31 décembre 2028 ?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-06-14	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.58	Powerfleet, Inc. (AIOT) (CIK 0001774170)	edgar_8k 2026-06-15	INF_067 Uber will execute "utilization guarantee agreements" with major charging networks — EVgo in the US; Electra, Hubber, and Ionity in Europe — giving autonomous fleets prioritized access to power grids and converting charging networks into fleet-demand-ce... Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	64%
0.58	MOSAIC CO (MOS) (CIK 0001285785)	edgar_8k 2026-06-15	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.58	Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) (CIK 0000769397)	edgar_8k 2026-06-15	CMQ_028 NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026). Jensen Huang	Semis	72%
0.58	PLUG POWER INC (PLUG) (CIK 0001093691)	edgar_8k 2026-06-15	CMQ_024 'Tokens per Watt' is the defining Key Performance Indicator (KPI) for the modern digital economy. Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	54%
0.58	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.7.9	github_release 2025-11-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.58	Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? (market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.58	Will Donna Vekic win the 2026 Women’s US Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will Donna Vekic win the 2026 Women’s US Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Spread: Colombia (-1.5)(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Does Saudi Arabia normalize with Israel before December 31 2028?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-06-15	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.58	Will the price of silver exceed $70 at the end of June(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-15	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.58	MR-GVNO: A Geometry-Aware Variational Physics-Informed Neural Operator for Mindlin-Reissner Plates on Irregular Domains	arxiv 2026-06-15	INF_023 Data-center physical shells will be increasingly erected by 3D-printing and robotic-assembly systems with minimal human intervention — necessary because human labor supply is insufficient to build at trillion-dollar buildout velocity. Ben Lamm	Robotics	36%
0.58	Multi-Modal Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Network with Mixture of Experts for Soil Organic Carbon Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.58	Neural Bayesian Anomaly Mitigation: A Robust Loss that Doubles as an Unsupervised Contamination Classifier	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.58	FEnc$^2$: Unifying Data Packing for Efficient Private Inference via Convolution and Architecture-Aware Fragment Encoding	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	QK-Normed MLA: QK normalization without full key caching	arxiv 2026-06-15	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.58	Data-driven Control with Real-time Uncertainty Compensation for Multi-Fuel Engines	arxiv 2026-06-15	244_029 Combustion engines largely gone in 20 years but world will be very different Dara Khosrowshahi	Energy	35%
0.58	Data-driven Control with Real-time Uncertainty Compensation for Multi-Fuel Engines	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.58	Closing the Approximation Gap in Simulation-free Latent SDEs	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Extending Item Response Theory for Efficient and Meaningful Multilingual Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.58	Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5)(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.58	Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage(market prob: 69%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.58	Symplectic Transversality and Endpoint Green Estimates for Finite-Horizon Pontryagin Systems	arxiv 2026-06-16	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.58	Constrained Diffusion Models with Primal-Dual Inference	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Learning task-specific subspaces via interventional post-training of speech foundation models	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.58	Single-valued polylogarithms for higher genera	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.58	Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.58	Spread: Mexico (-1.5)(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.58	Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 Group Stage(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.58	Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.58	Spread: Mexico (-2.5)(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.58	Free Lottery (inflationary expansion)(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-06-18	248_027 Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos. Dave Blundin	Other	39%
0.58	D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) (CIK 0001907982)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.58	Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT) (CIK 0001674101)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.58	PEGASYSTEMS INC (PEGA) (CIK 0001013857)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) (CIK 0000769397)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	CMQ_028 NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026). Jensen Huang	Semis	72%
0.58	BILL Holdings, Inc. (BILL) (CIK 0001786352)	edgar_8k 2026-06-17	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Aligning Implied Statements for Implicit Hate Speech Generalizability with Context-Bounded Semi-hard Negative Mining	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Risk Stratification for ICU Delirium using Pervasive Ambient Sensing Information	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_027 Integration of AI with advanced bio-sensing, quantum computing, and genomics enables humanity to achieve 'Longevity Escape Velocity' — tipping point where medical technology extends human lifespan faster than time passes; continuous biological surveill... Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	21%
0.58	Online Distributional Prediction via Latent Cluster Geometry Under Drift and Corruption	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Contextualizing Biological Language Models across Modalities via Logit-Space Contrastive Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-17	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.58	Shrinkage priors for Bayesian Substitute Confounders	arxiv 2026-06-16	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Urdu Katib Handwritten Dataset: A Historical Document Dataset for Offline Urdu Handwritten Text Recognition with CRNN-Based Baseline Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.58	Which Sections of a Research Paper Best Reveal Its Research Methods? Evidence from Library and Information Science	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.58	Technical Report for ICRA 2026 GOOSE 2D Fine-Grained Semantic Segmentation Challenge: Leveraging DINOv3 for Robust Outdoor Scene Understanding in Field Robotics	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_016 Rural landscapes in the Global South move beyond conventional food production toward highly complex, multifunctional systems — agentic AI platforms synthesize localized ecological data to enable precision organic farming, transparent environmental prot... Peter Dannenberg	Other	42%
0.58	The pole truth: an analytical graviton propagator from Asymptotic Safety	arxiv 2026-06-16	232_015 AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the next two years. Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.58	Will Kurt Kitayama win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.58	Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Max Clark win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Max Clark win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	233_011 Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption. Joe Liemandt	Education	37%
0.58	Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027?(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.58	Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-01-07	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.58	Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.58	Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock	Robotics	20%
0.58	Will a country do a bombing live stream by EOY 2030?(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-06-19	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.58	This market resolves to whatever the comments convince me to resolve it to(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-06-18	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	TeleMorpher: Toward Robust Simultaneous Motion-Location Editing	arxiv 2026-06-18	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.58	The Token Is a Group Element: On Lie-Algebra Attention over Matrix Lie Groups	arxiv 2026-06-18	238_024 AI token speed will jump from ~50 tokens/sec to ~1,000 tokens/sec (Cerebras) Emad Mostaque	AI	37%
0.58	Flow Map Denoisers: Traversing the Distortion-Perception Plane for Inverse Problems	arxiv 2026-06-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	CATCH-ME if you RAG: a dataset of Contextually Annotated multi-Turn Counterspeech against Hate and Misinformation Exchanges	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Segment-Level Mandarin Chinese Speech-Based Cognitive Impairment Detection via an Autoencoder with Contrastive Learning	arxiv 2026-06-18	AI_005 Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics olympiads while simultaneously failing rudimentary arithmetic and spatial logic; true AGI requires smoothing these jagged edges via continual learning, d... Demis Hassabis	AI	83%
0.58	Space-time duality approach to (inhomogeneous) integrable quenches	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.58	Generating Function of single-centered Black Hole Index in CHL Models	arxiv 2026-06-17	231_032 Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	31%
0.58	Deriving effective descriptions and signal predictions for dynamical gravitational systems	arxiv 2026-06-17	248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.58	FDA ANDA212143: FOSAPREPITANT DIMEGLUMINE (FOSAPREPITANT DIMEGLUMINE) — CHIA TAI TIANQING	fda 2026-06-10	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Dallas Mavericks in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-27	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.58	Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-04-14	238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	45%
0.58	Will Francisco Cerúndolo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google	AI	46%
0.58	Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	FDA ANDA219413: ANDA219413 ((unspecified)) — TEVA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.	fda 2026-06-05	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Spread: Portugal (-1.5)(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.58	Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock	Robotics	20%
0.58	Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	233_011 Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption. Joe Liemandt	Education	37%
0.58	Will a magnitude 8.0+ earthquake occur before September 1, 2026?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-06-21	CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei	AI	28%
0.58	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-06	SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	39%
0.58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-01-13	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-08	FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	30%
0.58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	30%
0.58	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 20%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Trump out as President by April 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-26	236_023 AI will replace white-collar jobs: 20-50% of 70M US office workers in 12-18 months Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.58	Trump out as President by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-11	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	LoL: Karmine Corp vs SK Gaming - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Abidjan 2: Maks Kasnikowski vs Calvin Hemery(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.58	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.58	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-30?(market prob: 37%)	polymarket 2026-04-17	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2026-03-23	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.58	Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.58	Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	242_057 Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission Peter Diamandis	Space	56%
0.58	Will Austria win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.58	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-01	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	Florida Redistricting Before 2026 Midterms?(market prob: 81%)	manifold 2026-04-27	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.58	Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day next week?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-04-26	243_042 Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forward Dara Khosrowshahi	Consumer	51%