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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-19 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-19 | 234_050 Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilities Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.55 | LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-05-24 | COD_SPC_001 Artemis III flies as an Earth-orbit HLS/EVA suit test mission in 2027, not a lunar landing Codex Research Pack | Space | 44% | |
| 0.55 | US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 232_012 US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. Ben Horowitz | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-24 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | ||
| 0.55 | Will David Njoku play for New Orleans Saints in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-02 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail | Labor/Jobs | 37% | |
| 0.55 | US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 232_012 US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. Ben Horowitz | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-30 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 242_042 Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Philipp K. find a real girlfriend in the next 12 months?(market prob: 83%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | 232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 70% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 246_002 SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 46% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-29 | CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 52% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 26% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | 232_015 AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the next two years. Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | 232_048 Earth will develop a visible halo/ring of AI satellites; could be visible at night and possibly day. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-27 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA BLA103792: HERCEPTIN (TRASTUZUMAB) — GENENTECH | fda 2026-05-18 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA212371: EMPAGLIFLOZIN (EMPAGLIFLOZIN) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LIMITED | fda 2026-05-21 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.55 | San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Chisinau: Cezar Cretu vs Stefanos Sakellaridis(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Kostyuk (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | |
| 0.55 | Set Handicap: Jodar (-2.5) vs Busta (+2.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | |
| 0.55 | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | |
| 0.55 | T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.55 | Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.55 | Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Osaka (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 24% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-28 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 24% | ||
| 0.55 | Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Oliver Tarvet(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.55 | Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-01 | COD_AI_002 At least one 1 GW Vera Rubin frontier-training cluster reaches deployment by Q1 2027 Codex Research Pack | AI/Compute | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-01 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-01 | S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028 Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028 | humanoid_deployment | 50% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-01 | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 61% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA220299: ISOPROTERENOL HYDROCHLORIDE (ISOPROTERENOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — ASPIRO | fda 2026-05-18 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA220366: LACOSAMIDE (LACOSAMIDE) — STERANCO HLTHCARE | fda 2026-05-21 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.55 | github_release 2021-06-23 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.55 | github_release 2021-06-23 | CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn | AI/Compute | 59% | ||
| 0.55 | github_release 2020-06-22 | 229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 69% | ||
| 0.55 | Birmingham: Gabriela Knutson vs Joanna Garland(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Birmingham: Gabriela Knutson vs Joanna Garland(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | |
| 0.55 | Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Crusaders vs Bubliki (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Rogue is gonna be in the new spider man movie ??(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-02 | 234_050 Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilities Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-02 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba | AI | 65% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.55 | New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners(market prob: 98%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs(market prob: 89%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Will blinded study participants be able to detect indica vs sativa?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-03 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.55 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | T20 Blast: Somerset vs Glamorgan(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Iran closes its airspace by June 8?(market prob: 96%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 174.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 243_035 Austin and Atlanta autonomous markets growing faster than national average Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Will Ukraine control Slavyansk at the end of October 2027?(market prob: 59%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-04 | COD_AI_002 At least one 1 GW Vera Rubin frontier-training cluster reaches deployment by Q1 2027 Codex Research Pack | AI/Compute | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-04 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-04 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-04 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.55 | San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Tyler: Liam Draxl vs Braden Shick(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-05 | SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail | Labor/Jobs | 37% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 23% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA220465: ANDA220465 ((unspecified)) — SANDOZ INC | fda 2026-05-22 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.55 | github_release 2025-04-07 | 241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.55 | Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 238_020 Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 61% | |
| 0.55 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 72%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-06 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-06 | SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 56% | ||
| 0.55 | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 79%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-05 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.55 | Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Will Tyreek Hill play for the New England Patriots next?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-16 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis | AI | 48% | |
| 0.55 | Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.55 | Will the SSPX catholics incur excommunications in 2026?(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Will I score higher than 1500 on the June 6th SAT?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn | AI/Compute | 59% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | AUT_021 Defining software movement of 2026: startups building autonomous platforms specifically designed to clean/structure/continuously validate multimodal data — unstructured corporate sludge (PDFs, logs, videos, emails) causes autonomous agentic workflows t... Marc Andreessen | AI | 57% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | 247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Tyreek Hill play for the Minnesota Vikings next?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-16 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-01-06 | 239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk | AI | 47% | |
| 0.55 | Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.55 | HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones(market prob: 69%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Will someone managram me 1k mana(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_068 Mark Pack Donovan to distribute 5% of wealth fund annually to 44 people (UBI-style pod) Mark Pack Donovan | Macro/Economy | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Will any 2026 World Cup match be disrupted by security or weather?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA219099: ROMIDEPSIN (ROMIDEPSIN) — AMNEAL | fda 2026-06-02 | 248_030 FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky(market prob: 78%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.55 | Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | FUT_005 Emergence of 'Living Intelligence' 2026-2031: violent transformative convergence between biological science, silicon-based sensor networks, and algorithmic orchestration — biological cells programmed with same precision as silicon computers. Living cel... Amy Webb | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Will Gukesh retain his world championship title(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-08 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.55 | Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 232_024 San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue. Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.55 | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | |
| 0.55 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 244_007 Vertiports will target airports and city centers as high-traffic locations Dara Khosrowshahi | Real Estate | 47% | |
| 0.55 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 248_004 Launching 40,000 V3 Starlinks requires only 3 Starship launches per week over 3 years. Peter Diamandis | Space | 58% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Bernie Sanders officially run for president in 2028?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | 236_024 Commercial real estate will come under tremendous pressure Andrew Yang | Real Estate | 51% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba | AI | 79% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | 232_058 Solving physics may reveal 'doors behind doors' of new opportunities. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | 230_033 Intelligence explosion shockwave propagates from math → physical sciences → planetary systems, Dyson swarm by early 2030s. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | 242_027 Hyperloop will be used largely for commercial/cargo loads, not humans Salim Ismail | Auto/Transport | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA211187: MACITENTAN (MACITENTAN) — TEVA PHARMS USA INC | fda 2026-06-08 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 91%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Israel closes its airspace by June 14?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-11 | 240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | 238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA217734: PHYTONADIONE (PHYTONADIONE) — AMNEAL | fda 2026-06-01 | 247_041 AI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 55% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 240_011 NVIDIA can grow another 2x into the 2nm node before being floored Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | |
| 0.55 | Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis | AI | 48% | |
| 0.55 | Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-04-17 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Do you like 58% odds?(market prob: 59%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | 240_023 45% of dementia cases are entirely preventable Dr. Don Mucalem | Biotech/Longevity | 49% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-12 | 244_012 Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 41% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-11 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | 230_033 Intelligence explosion shockwave propagates from math → physical sciences → planetary systems, Dyson swarm by early 2030s. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yuan(market prob: 88%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | ||
| 0.55 | Will the UzChess Cup (Masters division) go to tiebreaks?(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.55 | github_release 2022-06-10 | 236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang | Consumer | 51% | ||
| 0.55 | Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.55 | HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 234_010 Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon Dave Blundin | Defense | 50% | ||
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-14 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | ||
| 0.55 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-05-22 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-14 | COD_AI_003 EU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin on 2026-08-02 without a blanket delay Codex Research Pack | Geopolitics | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Angela Dugalic win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-21 | S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) | mars_uncrewed_landing | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Will greyhound racing be banned in the US by the end of 2027?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.55 | Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | S_AI_PAUSE_2028 AI pause beginning 2028 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-16 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-15 | INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis | Biotech/Longevity | 38% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-14 | CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt | Defense | 17% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-15 | 247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-15 | 241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-15 | 247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA NDA022434: ARGATROBAN IN SODIUM CHLORIDE (ARGATROBAN) — CIPLA | fda 2026-06-10 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA215230: BRIMONIDINE TARTRATE AND TIMOLOL MALEATE (BRIMONIDINE TARTRATE) — ALEMBIC | fda 2026-06-11 | IND_012 NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a decade — Evo 2 achieves 90% accuracy in BRCA1 predictions; AI models will seamlessly transition generated biological designs into practical, synthesized clinical... Jensen Huang | Biotech/Longevity | 68% | |
| 0.55 | Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?(market prob: 64%) | polymarket 2026-06-16 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Will Freddy Peralta win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-18 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury(market prob: 72%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury(market prob: 72%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Will Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock be on the Democratic ticket in 2028?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.55 | Win by betting "yes"(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | 239_026 Future will be very entertaining Elon Musk | Other | 55% | |
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-16 | FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-16 | 232_056 Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Fable be reenabled for Europeans before Americans?(market prob: 1%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 234_004 Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.55 | Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 31?(market prob: 79%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk | AI | 47% | |
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-17 | SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li | AI | 63% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-17 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-16 | INF_054 Valar HTGR gigasites will chemically store excess energy by synthesizing carbon-neutral hydrocarbon fuels from high-temperature nuclear heat — addressing a trillion-dollar TAM by decarbonizing steel, cement, and petrochemicals. Isaiah Taylor | Energy | 16% | ||
| 0.55 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.55 | Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 96%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 96%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | |
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-18 | 232_011 Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-18 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-17 | 230_033 Intelligence explosion shockwave propagates from math → physical sciences → planetary systems, Dyson swarm by early 2030s. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-17 | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 23% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA NDA016673: DEXTROSE 5% IN PLASTIC CONTAINER (DEXTROSE) — BAXTER HLTHCARE | fda 2026-06-11 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.55 | UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card)(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 2 Curaçao?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-20 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-19 | 246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.55 | Will there be 40+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-15 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-21 | 229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock | Geopolitics | 41% | ||
| 0.55 | New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-16 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Will Fable 5 be reenabled for Everyone at the same time?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-06-22 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Will Fable 5 be reenabled for Everyone at the same time?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-06-22 | 246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.55 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | 237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn | AI | 41% | |
| 0.55 | Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.55 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.55 | Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-29 | SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail | Labor/Jobs | 37% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 240_050 US will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a job Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 248_043 Full sewing/stitching automation likely within six months. Dave Blundin | Robotics | 43% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 246_039 Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 49% | ||
| 0.55 | Estevao plays in the 2026 World Cup(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis | AI | 71% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-04 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.55 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | ||
| 0.55 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | ||
| 0.55 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | AI_009 Silicon Valley boardroom compute-cluster conversations have escalated rapidly from $10 billion clusters → $100 billion clusters → trillion-dollar mega-facilities by late 2020s — each order-of-magnitude jump completed roughly every 2 years. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.55 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | ||
| 0.55 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | ||
| 0.55 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | ||
| 0.55 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.55 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | CMQ_035 HBM4 16-layer stack design (required for Vera Rubin) places unprecedented yield and capacity strain on global memory fabrication facilities. Jensen Huang / Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | ||
| 0.55 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 238_036 Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp, operating on behalf of advertisers Emad Mostaque | Media/Ads | 35% | ||
| 0.55 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | ||
| 0.55 | LoL: Fnatic vs Solary - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.55 | Pistons vs. Magic(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.55 | Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.55 | Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 235_027 Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Cadillac Championship?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Iran leadership change by December 31?(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2026-03-09 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.55 | Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 234_029 Humans will not take cows to the moon or Mars as foodstock Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 30% | ||
| 0.55 | Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Abidjan 2: Niels Visker vs Michael Mmoh(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 84% | |
| 0.55 | Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Cloud9 vs Dignitas - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley | Energy | 47% | |
| 0.55 | Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.55 | San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.55 | Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy | 57% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-02 | S_HUMANOID_MASS_2033 Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033 | humanoid_deployment | 10% | ||
| 0.55 | Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: LYON vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: LYON vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Will I stay in masters this season?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.55 | Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.55 | Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Will the montreal canadiens win the stanley cup in 2026?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 37% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-04 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 77%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.55 | FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 77%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage(market prob: 72%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs INTZ e-Sports - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 71% | |
| 0.55 | Will I get a 5 on AP Chem?(market prob: 87%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-05 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-05 | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 61% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-05 | INF_040 Massive financial conglomerates will execute historic mergers to control underlying DC real-estate and fiber-optic assets: SoftBank's move to acquire DigitalBridge for its approximately $108 billion in infrastructure assets signals real-estate and fibe... SoftBank | Markets/Stocks | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-05 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA210249: POMALIDOMIDE (POMALIDOMIDE) — EUGIA PHARMA | fda 2026-04-27 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.55 | FDA NDA206628: DEXMEDETOMIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE (DEXMEDETOMIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — HQ SPCLT PHARMA | fda 2026-05-01 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA204687: VALSARTAN AND HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE (HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE) — SCIEGEN PHARMS | fda 2026-04-23 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA090124: ALENDRONATE SODIUM (ALENDRONATE SODIUM) — AUROBINDO PHARMA | fda 2026-04-15 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.55 | FDA NDA021121: CONCERTA (METHYLPHENIDATE HYDROCHLORIDE) — JANSSEN PHARMS | fda 2026-04-10 | INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis | Biotech/Longevity | 38% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA210386: CANAGLIFLOZIN (CANAGLIFLOZIN) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD | fda 2026-04-20 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.55 | github_release 2020-10-22 | COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 27% | ||
| 0.55 | github_release 2020-05-25 | 234_050 Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilities Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.55 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 84%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-06 | SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 56% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | 229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | INF_026 'Software 3.0' LLM infrastructure will operate like public utilities — requiring massive upfront capex (training compute, specialized hardware), specialized networking protocols for synchrony across hundreds of thousands of GPUs, and flawless uninterru... Andrej Karpathy | AI | 70% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | 229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 69% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | 240_032 PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | 248_037 State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 10% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA075388: BUSPIRONE HYDROCHLORIDE (BUSPIRONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — OXFORD PHARMS | fda 2026-04-15 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.55 | FDA NDA020944: CHILDREN'S ADVIL (IBUPROFEN) — HALEON US HOLDINGS | fda 2026-05-01 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 24% | |
| 0.55 | New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-06 | CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 84% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA220314: SEMAGLUTIDE (SEMAGLUTIDE) — APOTEX INC | fda 2026-04-07 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA204072: METHYLPREDNISOLONE (METHYLPREDNISOLONE) — TIANJIN TIANYAO | fda 2026-04-10 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.55 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jaqueline Cristian(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card)(market prob: 22%) | polymarket 2026-04-18 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Dota 2: PARIVISION vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi | Other | 53% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-08 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.55 | Will I get an 100 on my Arabic Midterm?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | ROB_004 By approximately 2027-2028, collaborative AI programs will essentially 'solve physics' — unifying general relativity and quantum mechanics into a new mathematical framework; the core mission of DeepMind is to 'first solve AI, then use AI to solve every... Demis Hassabis | AI | 8% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 234_038 Real estate is not an asset class impervious to the singularity Alex Wissner-Gross | Real Estate | 35% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | ROB_004 By approximately 2027-2028, collaborative AI programs will essentially 'solve physics' — unifying general relativity and quantum mechanics into a new mathematical framework; the core mission of DeepMind is to 'first solve AI, then use AI to solve every... Demis Hassabis | AI | 8% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 23% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA NDA021342: LEVO-T (LEVOTHYROXINE SODIUM) — CEDIPROF INC | fda 2026-05-04 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 71% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA074544: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — EPIC PHARMA LLC | fda 2026-05-05 | CMQ_035 HBM4 16-layer stack design (required for Vera Rubin) places unprecedented yield and capacity strain on global memory fabrication facilities. Jensen Huang / Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.55 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Frances Tiafoe vs Ignacio Buse(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-04-18 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.55 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Belinda Bencic vs Anna Kalinskaya(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Dota 2: PlayTime vs PARIVISION (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Will the fight be won by submission?(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-04-18 | 247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis | AI | 71% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-08 | S_COMPUTE_STARGATE_FAILURE Stargate failure: <500MW by 2029 | compute_scale | 15% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-08 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-08 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-08 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA218840: CALCIUM GLUCONATE (CALCIUM GLUCONATE) — CAPLIN | fda 2026-05-04 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 24% | |
| 0.55 | Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-16 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 246_054 Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | |
| 0.55 | Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.55 | Dota 2: PlayTime vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.55 | Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.55 | Dota 2: PlayTime vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Will Sean Strickland become UFC champion in 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2025-12-29 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 248_015 Princeton CS brains will be a complete commodity two years from today post-ASI. Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 50% | ||
| 0.55 | Timberwolves vs. Spurs(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Elena Rybakina(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.55 | Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Parma: Lisa Pigato vs Lucia Bronzetti(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: NRG vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.55 | Oeiras 4: Tomas Barrios vs Michael Zheng(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.55 | Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.55 | Oeiras 4: Liam Draxl vs Emilio Nava(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 238_044 Mouse brain is 'next' for whole-brain emulation at Eon Systems Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 32% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-11 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | ||
| 0.55 | github_release 2023-08-04 | CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn | AI | 55% | ||
| 0.55 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Ducks vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.55 | Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-30 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Oeiras 4: Facundo Acosta vs Hugo Dellien(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 40% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | ||
| 0.55 | Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-12 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | Spurs vs. Timberwolves(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Free Lottery (KM3NeT)(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 38% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 242_058 Cybercab owners will generate revenue via autonomous ridesharing fleets Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 51% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Hampshire College be open in 2028?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 236_004 Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-13 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.55 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics(market prob: 73%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-03-09 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.55 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.55 | Dota 2: PlayTime vs REKONIX (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Dota 2: PlayTime vs REKONIX (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 247_022 Companies will run with 20-25% of previous workforce, spawn 4-5x more companies Salim Ismail | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-13 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA091037: VALPROIC ACID (VALPROIC ACID) — SUN PHARM INDS LTD | fda 2026-05-05 | 248_030 FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels(market prob: 64%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Valorant: Team Heretics vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.55 | Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.55 | Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 5.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Bordeaux: Raphael Collignon vs Titouan Droguet(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Bordeaux: Raphael Collignon vs Titouan Droguet(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.55 | UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims)(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 238_020 Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 61% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-15 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA215276: NICOTINE POLACRILEX (NICOTINE POLACRILEX) — DR REDDYS LABS SA | fda 2026-05-12 | CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis | AI | 60% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA220679: DAPAGLIFLOZIN (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — CENTAUR PHARMACEUTICALS PRIVATE LIMITED | fda 2026-05-06 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA220679: DAPAGLIFLOZIN (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — CENTAUR PHARMACEUTICALS PRIVATE LIMITED | fda 2026-05-06 | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 61% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-16 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | ||
| 0.55 | Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.55 | Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 238_020 Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 61% | |
| 0.55 | Iran closes its airspace by May 24?(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Iran closes its airspace by May 21?(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Will the 2026 NBA Finals go to a Game 7?(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA217761: SPIRONOLACTONE (SPIRONOLACTONE) — ANNORA PHARMA | fda 2026-05-12 | 248_030 FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA217432: FAMOTIDINE (FAMOTIDINE) — LUPIN | fda 2026-05-12 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.55 | github_release 2020-11-18 | 231_016 Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will go away. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-03-01 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | |
| 0.55 | Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Sentinels vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 62% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Sentinels vs Dignitas - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.55 | Geneva Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Raphael Collignon(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-18 | 242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | ||
| 0.55 | Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.55 | Valorant: NAVI Junior vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group A(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-19 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 71% | |
| 0.55 | Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.55 | Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs INTZ e-Sports - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-19 | COD_SPC_004 Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 48% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-19 | ROB_009 External sales of Tesla Optimus will commence in 2026 at approximately $30,000 retail price — a $30K capital expenditure for a 24/7-capable machine represents a 36-week payback period vs the lowest US minimum wage; fundamentally alters the mathematics ... Elon Musk | Robotics | 18% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-19 | TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event | — | 15% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-19 | 229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 69% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-19 | 242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA218691: CEFIXIME (CEFIXIME) — FDC LTD | fda 2026-05-14 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-24 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | T20 Blast: Sussex vs Middlesex(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-05-24 | 246_054 Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | |
| 0.55 | Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | |
| 0.55 | Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.55 | Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-27 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 235_043 Anthropic may win legal challenge against Dept of War classification. Salim Ismail | Defense | 36% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.55 | Will I get a girlfriend before I make USNCO Camp in 2027?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley | AI | 57% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | SPC_021 Relativity Space will revolutionize manufacturing of atmospheric and orbital vehicles by layering AI/ML software with intelligent robotics — drastically reducing part counts and manufacturing latency via autonomous rocket-construction pipelines. Eric Schmidt | Space | 45% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.55 | San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | T20 Blast: Warwickshire vs Northamptonshire(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.55 | Israel closes its airspace by June 15?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.55 | Israel closes its airspace by June 30?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.55 | Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Osaka (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.55 | Foggia: Sapfo Sakellaridi vs Sofia Costoulas(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | S_AGI_SLOW_2031 AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path | agi_general_capability | 25% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.55 | Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Oliver Tarvet(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.55 | Dota 2: Estar Backs vs TeamDk - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Spread: Dallas Wings (-12.5)(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Will I stay in Masters this season?(market prob: 88%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.55 | Will I stay in masters this season?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-01 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-01 | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 61% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-01 | 242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA216988: CLONAZEPAM (CLONAZEPAM) — RUBICON RESEARCH | fda 2026-05-21 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA208045: LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE (LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD | fda 2026-05-15 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.55 | github_release 2020-05-08 | 240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin | AI | 46% |