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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.55 | Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-06-16 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Will Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 243_001 Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | |
| 0.55 | Will Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 243_001 Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | |
| 0.55 | Will Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 238_072 Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days Emad Mostaque | AI | 74% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 31?(market prob: 79%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-18 | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-17 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-17 | INF_040 Massive financial conglomerates will execute historic mergers to control underlying DC real-estate and fiber-optic assets: SoftBank's move to acquire DigitalBridge for its approximately $108 billion in infrastructure assets signals real-estate and fibe... SoftBank | Markets/Stocks | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-17 | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 23% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-17 | 247_037 Quantum computing will not break Bitcoin (Mike Saylor position) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 54% | ||
| 0.55 | Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Spread: Toronto Tempo (-1.5)(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.55 | Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-18 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA077446: IRBESARTAN AND HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE (HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE) — SANDOZ | fda 2026-06-08 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings(market prob: 22%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-20 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-19 | 248_031 Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 39% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA077494: RISPERIDONE (RISPERIDONE) — PH HEALTH | fda 2026-06-08 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 20% | |
| 0.55 | FDA NDA215383: WELIREG (BELZUTIFAN) — MERCK SHARP DOHME | fda 2026-06-12 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-21 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.55 | Keir Starmer out before July? (Tumbles Judgement)(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Senegal?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-22 | 247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-18 | CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang | AI/Compute | 92% | ||
| 0.55 | Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 37%) | polymarket 2026-06-17 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-17 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Will the Crimean bridge be damaged in 2026?(market prob: 71%) | manifold 2026-06-23 | 246_017 Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. Peter Diamandis | Space | 38% | |
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-22 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-22 | AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban | AI | 60% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-22 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-22 | 235_040 Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 26% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-22 | 234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-21 | 232_056 Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA203863: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — EPIC PHARMA LLC | fda 2026-06-18 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA201187: OXYMORPHONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYMORPHONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — EPIC PHARMA LLC | fda 2026-06-18 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA203823: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — LANNETT CO INC | fda 2026-06-18 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA208815: ELTROMBOPAG OLAMINE (ELTROMBOPAG OLAMINE) — ACTAVIS LABS FL | fda 2026-06-17 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA088109: METHADONE HYDROCHLORIDE (METHADONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — HIKMA | fda 2026-06-18 | 232_036 AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE. Ben Horowitz | Biotech/Longevity | 46% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA204234: DOXYCYCLINE (DOXYCYCLINE) — LUPIN | fda 2026-06-12 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA077858: TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — RISING | fda 2026-06-18 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA214590: TRETINOIN (TRETINOIN) — ALEMBIC | fda 2026-06-11 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.55 | Madrid Open: Arthur Fils vs Jiri Lehecka(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 42% | ||
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.55 | LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.55 | Iran leadership change by April 30?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-09 | 247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-03-26 | CMQ_018 By 2027-2028, the strategic value of superintelligence + impossible trillion-dollar infrastructure cost will trigger government consolidation of AGI development — 'The Project'. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Geopolitics | 35% | ||
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.55 | Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_030 DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | |
| 0.55 | Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Abidjan 2: Gauthier Onclin vs Massimo Giunta(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.55 | Madrid Open: Hailey Baptiste vs Mirra Andreeva(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-08 | 237_025 We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. Peter Diamandis | AI | 59% | |
| 0.55 | Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-08 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.55 | NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets (market prob: 72%) | polymarket 2026-04-17 | 242_026 Rocket point-to-point travel will win over hyperloop due to Starship launch cadence Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 38% | |
| 0.55 | Over 1.5 red cards issued for mouth covering at 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Will Cyprus join the Schengen Area by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-28 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 42% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-24 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky actually debate @47fucb4r8c69323?(market prob: 93%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 231_008 AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky actually debate @47fucb4r8c69323?(market prob: 93%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-24 | INF_046 Governments worldwide will increasingly prioritize absolute energy independence, pursuing self-sufficiency in critical materials and domestic manufacturing capacity to support Sovereign AI initiatives — extending beyond G7 to mid-sized nations (Estonia... Morgan Stanley | Geopolitics | 62% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.55 | LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.55 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 233_008 Public school adoption of Alpha model will take place in the second decade, not the first. Joe Liemandt | Education | 32% | ||
| 0.55 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.55 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 233_008 Public school adoption of Alpha model will take place in the second decade, not the first. Joe Liemandt | Education | 32% | ||
| 0.55 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.55 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 233_008 Public school adoption of Alpha model will take place in the second decade, not the first. Joe Liemandt | Education | 32% | ||
| 0.55 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 233_008 Public school adoption of Alpha model will take place in the second decade, not the first. Joe Liemandt | Education | 32% | ||
| 0.55 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | Madrid Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.55 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Fnatic vs Solary - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Fnatic vs Solary - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.55 | Pistons vs. Magic(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.55 | Bayern vs PSG, Champions League Semi Final Leg 2 6th May of 2026(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-04-30 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | ||
| 0.55 | LoL: Galions vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LFL Regular Season(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 236_025 Suburban housing prices will fall as white collar workers lose jobs and sell homes Andrew Yang | Real Estate | 42% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.55 | Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Abidjan 2: Niels Visker vs Michael Mmoh(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Cloud9 vs Dignitas - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Cloud9 vs Dignitas - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Canadiens vs. Lightning (market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-04-17 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-04-09 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-04-09 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.55 | San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 95%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 95%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.55 | Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 95%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | SEM_003 Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy/Compute | 86% | |
| 0.55 | Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-04-09 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.55 | Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 238_020 Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 61% | |
| 0.55 | New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.55 | Timberwolves vs. Spurs(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2025-11-17 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.55 | Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons (market prob: 75%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage(market prob: 72%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs INTZ e-Sports - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-05 | AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 37% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-05 | 242_041 United Launch Alliance will get acquired by Jeff Bezos or similar Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-05 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-05 | 235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail | Markets/Stocks | 47% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-05 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-04 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-04 | 242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 38% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-04 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA219865: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — HETERO LABS LTD VI | fda 2026-04-30 | 247_041 AI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 55% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA217264: ESOMEPRAZOLE MAGNESIUM (ESOMEPRAZOLE MAGNESIUM) — MARKSANS PHARMA | fda 2026-05-20 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA213885: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — EUGIA PHARMA | fda 2026-04-27 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA219408: DAPAGLIFLOZIN (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — SCIEGEN PHARMACEUTICALS INC | fda 2026-04-30 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.55 | github_release 2020-05-22 | CMQ_044 Future data-center architectures optimized for agentic workflows may require 1:2 or even 2:1 CPU-to-GPU ratio (vs historical 1:12) to prevent GPU idle-waiting. Morgan Stanley | AI/Compute | 65% | ||
| 0.55 | github_release 2020-06-11 | CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz | AI | 77% | ||
| 0.55 | Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Barcząca Esports vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.55 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Ducks vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Will I take a leave of absence?(market prob: 62%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 236_017 Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | 234_038 Real estate is not an asset class impervious to the singularity Alex Wissner-Gross | Real Estate | 35% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | 231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | 240_032 PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | 246_034 Thousands of Medev-like one-person unicorns will be created, following power law. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA211535: DAPAGLIFLOZIN (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — CIPLA | fda 2026-04-06 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA077510: COLESTIPOL HYDROCHLORIDE (COLESTIPOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — IMPAX LABS | fda 2026-04-15 | 245_009 Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 45% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA211491: DAPAGLIFLOZIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — SUN PHARM | fda 2026-05-21 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA218509: IVERMECTIN (IVERMECTIN) — AJANTA PHARMA LTD | fda 2026-04-07 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.55 | FDA NDA207318: NUPLAZID (PIMAVANSERIN TARTRATE) — ACADIA PHARMS INC | fda 2026-04-27 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 248_012 AI incidents documented harms will go up way higher beyond the already-reported rise. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-07 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.55 | Free Lottery (GRB 170817A)(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | S_COMPUTE_10GW_2028 Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028 | compute_scale | 40% | |
| 0.55 | github_release 2019-06-24 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.55 | UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims)(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-04-18 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.55 | Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend(market prob: 64%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.55 | Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 232_024 San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue. Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.55 | Free Lottery (Giant Magellan Telescope)(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 238_058 Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 years Salim Ismail | Macro/Economy | 33% | |
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba | AI/Hardware | 71% | ||
| 0.55 | UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-04-18 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.55 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Qinwen Zheng vs Jelena Ostapenko(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-04-18 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 234_004 Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.55 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Viktorija Golubic vs Mirra Andreeva(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 232_024 San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue. Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.55 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2025-12-17 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Will the fight be won by submission?(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-04-18 | 241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-08 | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-08 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.55 | Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-16 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 232_024 San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue. Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.55 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Laura Siegemund vs Karolina Pliskova(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 20% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.55 | Oeiras 4: Billy Harris vs Petr Brunclik(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis | AI | 71% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-11 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA211132: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — INGENUS PHARMS LLC | fda 2026-05-05 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.55 | github_release 2026-01-14 | CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn | AI | 55% | ||
| 0.55 | github_release 2023-02-02 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.55 | Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-30 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.55 | Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2025-09-15 | 248_041 Maine data center moratorium gives other states / Elon time to move compute to orbit. Peter Diamandis | Space | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Zagreb: Thiago Monteiro vs Andres Andrade(market prob: 64%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.55 | Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA220529: BUPROPION HYDROCHLORIDE (BUPROPION HYDROCHLORIDE) — YICHANG HUMANWELL | fda 2026-05-04 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA075327: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — ANI PHARMS | fda 2026-05-05 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.55 | github_release 2023-09-28 | IND_005 Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~... Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 33% | ||
| 0.55 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi(market prob: 68%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | At the end of 2036, will the UK have routinely unarmed police officers?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-13 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.55 | Spread: Dallas Wings (-3.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.55 | Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.55 | Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-14 | AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 37% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA076958: LOSARTAN POTASSIUM (LOSARTAN POTASSIUM) — TEVA | fda 2026-05-07 | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang | Manufacturing | 86% | |
| 0.55 | FDA NDA219835: VEPPANU (VEPDEGESTRANT) — ARVINAS OPERATIONS | fda 2026-05-01 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.55 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 0.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-15 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-15 | SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail | Labor/Jobs | 37% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-15 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA BLA761331: WEZLANA (USTEKINUMAB-AUUB) — AMGEN INC | fda 2026-05-12 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA220717: ZOLPIDEM TARTRATE (ZOLPIDEM TARTRATE) — UMEDICA LABS PVT | fda 2026-05-12 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-16 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | ||
| 0.55 | Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Will Embroidery win the G1 Victoria Mile at Tokyo?(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 248_042 A sewing robot already exists; logistics robots will automate trillion-dollar stitching industry. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 39% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 240_051 After first state passes retraining law, all other states will race to fire people first Alex Wissner-Gross | Labor/Jobs | 42% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA220078: VORICONAZOLE (VORICONAZOLE) — ZHEJIANG NOVUS | fda 2026-05-05 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA077982: ALENDRONATE SODIUM (ALENDRONATE SODIUM) — APOTEX | fda 2026-05-07 | 245_009 Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 45% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA216537: CARBIDOPA AND LEVODOPA (CARBIDOPA) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD | fda 2026-05-08 | CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis | AI | 60% | |
| 0.55 | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 94%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Sentinels vs Dignitas - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 French Open men's singles title?(market prob: 0%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.55 | Hamburg European Open: Jakub Mensik vs Jan-Lennard Struff(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Will Israel be banned before Eurovision Song Contest 2027 happens?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.55 | Thomas Massie wins or loses by 5.00% or less?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-18 | 242_006 Terafab will reach 70% of TSMC's output Peter Diamandis | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-18 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% | ||
| 0.55 | Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-18 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-18 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.55 | Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 84%) | polymarket 2026-05-24 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | T20 Blast: Sussex vs Middlesex(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.55 | San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-24 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.55 | U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-30 | 231_041 Radical massive job destruction is imminent; new creation will lag, causing devastation for a few years. Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 54% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-30 | 240_051 After first state passes retraining law, all other states will race to fire people first Alex Wissner-Gross | Labor/Jobs | 42% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 231_005 Next year frontier reasoning costs will be pennies (down from ~$7 now). Peter Diamandis | AI | 55% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 234_013 Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029 Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-27 | ROB_008 Humanoid robotics market will reach $5 trillion by 2050 (excluding massive secondary supply chains for repair/maintenance/support). Nearly 1 billion humanoid robots operating globally by 2050, 90% used for industrial/commercial purposes vs domestic — m... Morgan Stanley | Robotics | 37% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 243_028 Joby eVTOL service hopefully coming to US sometime next year (2027) Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 41% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-25 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-29 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | 239_032 Progress in AI will continue as series of overlapping S-curves Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA BLA761449: TYENNE (TOCILIZUMAB-AAZG) — FRESENIUS KABI USA | fda 2026-05-20 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.55 | San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | T20 Blast: Yorkshire vs Gloucestershire(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang | AI/Compute | 92% | |
| 0.55 | Iran closes its airspace by June 15?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.55 | T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | ||
| 0.55 | Perugia: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Daniel Merida Aguilar(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.55 | Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-01 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 71% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.55 | New elected president of Iran before EOM May 2027?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-01 | 244_006 Joby vertiports will need to be designed for mass market with multiple vehicles landing/taking off Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA210454: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — EUGIA PHARMA | fda 2026-05-27 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA220366: LACOSAMIDE (LACOSAMIDE) — STERANCO HLTHCARE | fda 2026-05-21 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.55 | github_release 2022-11-24 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.55 | github_release 2020-11-26 | 237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.55 | github_release 2020-05-08 | 247_060 Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.55 | github_release 2020-05-08 | IND_012 NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a decade — Evo 2 achieves 90% accuracy in BRCA1 predictions; AI models will seamlessly transition generated biological designs into practical, synthesized clinical... Jensen Huang | Biotech/Longevity | 68% | ||
| 0.55 | Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Maks Kasnikowski(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.55 | New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Will I be below 265 pounds by January 11, 2027? (Today: 318.8 pounds)(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn | AI | 44% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban | Consumer | 45% | ||
| 0.55 | github_release 2022-06-06 | CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn | AI | 55% | ||
| 0.55 | Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs(market prob: 89%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Will Trump and Iran’s Supreme Leader meet in 2026?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-03 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-03 | 242_006 Terafab will reach 70% of TSMC's output Peter Diamandis | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-03 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA220043: VORICONAZOLE (VORICONAZOLE) — HAINAN POLY PHARM | fda 2026-05-29 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Perugia: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 243_035 Austin and Atlanta autonomous markets growing faster than national average Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 50% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-04 | S_AI_PAUSE_2026 Major-country AI pause beginning 2026 | ai_regulatory_pause | 5% | ||
| 0.55 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | 241_039 In a year we'll know better which AI labs pull ahead Eric Schmidt | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | 234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum | 62% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | 229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 69% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | S_ASI_SLOW_2040PLUS ASI slow: post-2040 / soft takeoff | asi_recursive_self_improvement | 60% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 23% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA NDA209805: STEGLUJAN (ERTUGLIFLOZIN) — MSD SUB MERCK | fda 2026-06-03 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 71% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA077802: OXCARBAZEPINE (OXCARBAZEPINE) — GLENMARK PHARMS LTD | fda 2026-05-28 | CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis | AI | 60% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA208047: LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE (LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — DR REDDYS | fda 2026-06-01 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA217085: ERIBULIN MESYLATE (ERIBULIN MESYLATE) — NATCO | fda 2026-06-01 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.55 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-04-06 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn | Consumer | 77% | |
| 0.55 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-24 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | CB Murcia vs. Barcelona(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-06 | 233_007 In 2026, Alpha will launch new schools beyond the flagship model based on the Timeback platform. Joe Liemandt | Education | 51% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-05 | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-05 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA070311: DIAZEPAM (DIAZEPAM) — HIKMA | fda 2026-06-01 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Israel closes its airspace by June 9?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.55 | HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang | AI/Compute | 92% | |
| 0.55 | Will Tyreek Hill play for the Minnesota Vikings next?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-16 | 241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt | AI | 48% | |
| 0.55 | Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 230_016 Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 55% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 246_054 Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | ||
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-08 | SPC_020 Archer Aviation's flagship Midnight eVTOL will launch commercial passenger flights by late 2026 — bolstered by FAA federal pilot programs; integrates NVIDIA IGX Thor onboard compute for predictive awareness, pilot safety, and autonomy-ready flight syst... Brett Adcock | Auto/Transport | 26% | ||
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-08 | TK08 Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop) | — | 22% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-08 | 244_006 Joby vertiports will need to be designed for mass market with multiple vehicles landing/taking off Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-08 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA BLA761480: RANLUSPEC (RANIBIZUMAB-HKDZ) — LUPIN LIMITED | fda 2026-06-02 | 248_030 FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Israel closes its airspace by June 10?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.55 | Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Will I be promoted to platinum at the end of this season?(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-08 | 242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 38% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-07 | INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis | Biotech/Longevity | 38% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-07 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-07 | SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba | AI/Hardware | 71% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-07 | 232_056 Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA219604: DALBAVANCIN HYDROCHLORIDE (DALBAVANCIN HYDROCHLORIDE) — BE PHARMS | fda 2026-06-04 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA077345: SERTRALINE HYDROCHLORIDE (SERTRALINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — HERITAGE PHARMA AVET | fda 2026-06-03 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.55 | Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.55 | Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Valencia vs. Joventut(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-01-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | 234_038 Real estate is not an asset class impervious to the singularity Alex Wissner-Gross | Real Estate | 35% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | 241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.55 | github_release 2022-08-23 | 247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.55 | Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 84% | |
| 0.55 | Will Kyler Murray be traded?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-26 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.55 | HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 20% | |
| 0.55 | Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.55 | Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-10 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-11 | 235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail | Markets/Stocks | 47% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-11 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-10 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-10 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-10 | 242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 38% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li | AI | 63% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA213511: ELUXADOLINE (ELUXADOLINE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA | fda 2026-06-02 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA217734: PHYTONADIONE (PHYTONADIONE) — AMNEAL | fda 2026-06-01 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.55 | Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.55 | Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-12 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-12 | 242_041 United Launch Alliance will get acquired by Jeff Bezos or similar Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-12 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-12 | 242_041 United Launch Alliance will get acquired by Jeff Bezos or similar Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-12 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-12 | AUT_008 Uber has structured partnerships integrating Waymo, May Mobility, Lucid Group + Nuro manufacturing agreement to deploy up to 20,000 purpose-built autonomous vehicles globally — hybrid human+AV transportation networks will persist 20-30 years due to cur... Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 76% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-12 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-11 | SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Physics | 56% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-11 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.55 | LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox(market prob: 96%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yuan(market prob: 88%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 20% | |
| 0.55 | Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5(market prob: 76%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.55 | Will any NFL team start the 2026 regular season 7-0?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Will Fable be reenabled for Americans before June 20?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.55 | FDA NDA022231: TERLIVAZ (TERLIPRESSIN ACETATE) — MALLINCKRODT IRELAND | fda 2026-06-10 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.55 | Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel(market prob: 92%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-01-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.55 | Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.55 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-15 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-15 | 244_006 Joby vertiports will need to be designed for mass market with multiple vehicles landing/taking off Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Angela Dugalic win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-21 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Will Angela Dugalic win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Will Ta'Niya Latson win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-21 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-15 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | ||
| 0.55 | Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5)(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Will I ban mobile devices from my bedroom until July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)(market prob: 59%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | 240_041 Consumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the next year Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-16 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-16 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-16 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-15 | 231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-15 | 232_050 Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-14 | 230_031 We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across many fields starting now. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-14 | 234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | ||
| 0.55 | Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?(market prob: 37%) | polymarket 2026-06-16 | 229_002 Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 56% | |
| 0.55 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 15?(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk | AI | 47% | |
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-16 | CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum | 62% | ||
| 0.55 | github_release 2026-06-11 | 235_010 Plugins/marketplaces will get built into baseline models and won't need to exist independently. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.55 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 247_047 Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030 Peter Diamandis | Energy | 50% | ||
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Will Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.55 | Will Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.55 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-18 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Trump be in the World Cup Champions Photo? [Polymarket](market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 238_036 Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp, operating on behalf of advertisers Emad Mostaque | Media/Ads | 35% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-17 | 244_006 Joby vertiports will need to be designed for mass market with multiple vehicles landing/taking off Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-17 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-16 | CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil | AI | 63% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-17 | ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz | Semis | 71% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-17 | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 23% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-17 | 247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | ||
| 0.55 | Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | 238_072 Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days Emad Mostaque | AI | 74% | |
| 0.55 | Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | 238_072 Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days Emad Mostaque | AI | 74% | |
| 0.55 | Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.55 | Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Spread: Toronto Tempo (-1.5)(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-02-19 | 229_004 By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. Brett Adcock | Geopolitics | 41% | ||
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-02-19 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-19 | 234_033 David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months David Holz | Robotics | 23% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-18 | CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 29% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-18 | AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei | AI | 56% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-18 | 231_001 Anthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement today. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA075468: CLONAZEPAM (CLONAZEPAM) — RUBICON RESEARCH | fda 2026-06-12 | CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis | AI | 60% | |
| 0.55 | Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings(market prob: 22%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.55 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% |