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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.57	Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.57	Will I ban mobile devices from my bedroom until July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)(market prob: 59%)	manifold 2026-06-16	234_026 AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	A Comprehensive Survey of Medical Image Segmentation: Challenges, Benchmarks, and Beyond	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	NVMOS: Non-Verbal Vocalization Quality Assessment in Speech	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	Scalable and Interpretable Representation Alignment with Ordinal Similarity	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.57	Multi-band cross-correlation dark sirens: Enhancing cosmological parameter and gravitational-wave bias constraints	arxiv 2026-06-14	S_COMPUTE_10GW_2028 Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028	compute_scale	40%
0.57	FDA NDA016694: DEXTROSE 10% IN PLASTIC CONTAINER (DEXTROSE) — BAXTER HLTHCARE	fda 2026-06-11	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.57	FDA ANDA209286: DIVALPROEX SODIUM (DIVALPROEX SODIUM) — LUPIN	fda 2026-06-11	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.57	FDA NDA214373: BRENZAVVY (BEXAGLIFLOZIN) — THERACOSBIO	fda 2026-06-03	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.57	FDA ANDA217358: DIVALPROEX SODIUM (DIVALPROEX SODIUM) — MANKIND PHARMA	fda 2026-06-11	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5)(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	When LLMs Analyze Scars: From Images to Clinically-Meaningful Features	arxiv 2026-06-16	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.57	Tensor-based second-order causal discovery	arxiv 2026-06-16	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.57	Tensor-based second-order causal discovery	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.57	Analyzing and Encoding the Al-Mawrid Arabic-English Dictionary with the ISO Language Markup Framework and TEI Lex-0	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.57	RICH-SLAM: Radar SLAM with Incremental and Continuous Hilbert Mapping	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.57	Making complex CFTs real: The two-dimensional Potts model for $Q>4$ and complex $Q$	arxiv 2026-06-16	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Hamiltonian formalism for Bose excitations in a plasma with a non-Abelian interaction: plasmon bremsstrahlung	arxiv 2026-06-16	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Imprints of dynamical phases in semiclassical entanglement entropy in 2D CFT	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Derivation of height field theory for the two-dimensional classical dimer model from a Grassmann-integral representation	arxiv 2026-06-15	229_045 Figure will not differentiate by vertical form factor—general-purpose humanoid is the bet. Brett Adcock	Robotics	28%
0.57	When Renormalisation Remembers: UV/IR Mixing as an Entanglement Bridge	arxiv 2026-06-15	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.57	Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	236_025 Suburban housing prices will fall as white collar workers lose jobs and sell homes Andrew Yang	Real Estate	42%
0.57	Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.57	Will Cameron Young win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	Will Justin Rose win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? [Polymarket](market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-06-18	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.57	US/Israel strike on Iran by end of 2030?(market prob: 58%)	manifold 2026-06-18	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.57	Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 31?(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-06-18	COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	27%
0.57	Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) (CIK 0001679788)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.57	Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT) (CIK 0001674101)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.57	NextDecade Corp (NEXT) (CIK 0001612720)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore	Semis/Products	71%
0.57	PEGASYSTEMS INC (PEGA) (CIK 0001013857)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.57	HELIOS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (HLIO) (CIK 0001024795)	edgar_8k 2026-06-17	AUT_001 The HIM platform has demonstrated commercial viability of autonomous multi-agent corporate execution — 5-agent organizational structures running continuously from a single node, with product applications generating substantial revenue within minutes of... Alex Finn	AI	51%
0.57	HELIOS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (HLIO) (CIK 0001024795)	edgar_8k 2026-06-17	INF_055 Helion Energy will deliver the world's first commercial fusion electricity — the 50 MW Orion plant in Malaga, Washington — to Microsoft by 2028 under the industry's first fusion power-purchase agreement. Sam Altman	Energy	28%
0.57	Risk Stratification for ICU Delirium using Pervasive Ambient Sensing Information	arxiv 2026-06-17	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.57	Urdu Katib Handwritten Dataset: A Historical Document Dataset for Offline Urdu Handwritten Text Recognition with CRNN-Based Baseline Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-17	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.57	On operator product expansion in the spin-orbit coupled bosonic system	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.57	Hydrodynamics of perfect fluids with anomalies from the fermionic path integral	arxiv 2026-06-17	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.57	Universal entanglement probes of topological order and locally-achiral manifolds	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.57	Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will Ivan Perišić be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Free Lottery (dark matter)(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-06-19	241_008 AI research agents will be limited only by electricity, with potentially millions possible Eric Schmidt	AI	43%
0.57	PSCT-Net: Geometry-Aware Pediatric Skull CT Reconstruction via Differentiable Back-Projection and Attention-Guided Refinement	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	Denoising Implicit Feedback for Cold-start Recommendation	arxiv 2026-06-17	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.57	Towards Modality-imbalanced Federated Graph Learning: A Data Synthesis-based Approach	arxiv 2026-06-18	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.57	QMaxCal: Path-Space Regularization for Open Quantum Control via Girsanov's Theorem	arxiv 2026-06-18	AI_016 The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an AI experience curve enables bulk problem-solving across engineering, medicine, and mathematics at a fraction of historical compute costs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	82%
0.57	Multimodal Concept Bottleneck Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	CzechDocs: A Multiway Parallel Dataset of Formatted Documents for Minority Languages in Czechia	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	Pitch Spelling Jazz Lead Sheets, Solo Transcriptions, Classical Piano and Monophonic Scores	arxiv 2026-06-18	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.57	ARC: Adaptive Robust Joint State and Covariance Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-18	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.57	Towards 3D karst underwater scene reconstruction from rotating sonar data	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.57	The magic of the gravitational vacuum	arxiv 2026-06-18	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Quantization of Brane-Skyrmions via Physics-Informed Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_004 By approximately 2027-2028, collaborative AI programs will essentially 'solve physics' — unifying general relativity and quantum mechanics into a new mathematical framework; the core mission of DeepMind is to 'first solve AI, then use AI to solve every... Demis Hassabis	AI	8%
0.57	Leading UV Formula for Finite-Volume Vertex Operator Expectation Values in the Sine-Gordon Model from Kink NLIE	arxiv 2026-06-18	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Universal Properties of Nonlinearly Perturbed Maxwell Theory	arxiv 2026-06-18	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.57	Calabi-Yau Orientifold Hypersurfaces and their F-theory Uplifts	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Will JT Poston win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-04-14	230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-04-14	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	How many deaths will be reported as directly linked to South Africa’s 30 June 2026 anti-immigration shutdown/protests?	manifold 2026-06-20	230_044 Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. Peter Diamandis	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Will the U.S. Supreme Court release a signed opinion in Trump v. Barbara on or before June 30, 2026 (6/30/26)?(market prob: 79%)	manifold 2026-06-20	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Exactly what day will Claud Fable 5 be available to Americans.	manifold 2026-06-19	COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	27%
0.57	FDA BLA761234: OPDUALAG (NIVOLUMAB) — BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB	fda 2026-06-08	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.57	FDA BLA761234: OPDUALAG (NIVOLUMAB) — BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB	fda 2026-06-08	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.57	France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Spread: England (-1.5)(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Spread: Algeria (-1.5)(market prob: 37%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google	AI	46%
0.57	Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.57	Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.57	Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	231_011 The country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war. Peter Diamandis	Geopolitics	55%
0.57	Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.57	Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	LoL: NRG Esports vs Citadel Gaming (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular Season(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.57	Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Division One (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will I finish my library takeouts before theyre due?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-04-28	240_048 Spreadsheet, SQL, code, UI jobs will be done by AI starting at end of this year Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	50%
0.57	Result of MrBeast red/blue button poll?	manifold 2026-04-28	247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis	Robotics	32%
0.57	Will the "Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13" pass(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-04-25	247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	46%
0.57	GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. (GEHC) (CIK 0001932393)	edgar_8k 2026-04-29	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.57	moelis mc q1 2026 earnings 021154258.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	ff680fbd0cfad7319fd19a68a33200ee	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.57	nasas artemis ii moonship returns home to its launch site after historic voyage	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_044 Blue Origin will land cargo at Shackleton Crater before SpaceX — validating lunar economy and resource extraction as immediate commercial priority. Peter Diamandis	Space	32%
0.57	article 92de82b6 3cdc 5e65 80c8 5bf5d34917e4.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	article 6bc20232 6f49 545c ae2b 9e1e98ef7a59.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.57	article 8ede7c62 8861 5d5f ac2f 5502203175ae.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	241_021 America can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildout Eric Schmidt	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.57	article 53083fef 8cdc 5e58 8fc2 580d537ba993.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	article 4c6c4a65 427c 5e4d a07e e294a57bfcdb.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.57	ashley st clair accuses dc draino faking jewish identity 1794393	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.57	article ff5a51e4 cb44 57ae 895f 3260cfa2eede.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.57	article ff5a51e4 cb44 57ae 895f 3260cfa2eede.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	article cca2e29d 08d0 5d1b b3e9 29d66c3845a0.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	firstsun capital bancorp q1 2026 123000543.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.57		gdelt 2026-04-30	248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail	Robotics	34%
0.57	Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	Stars vs. Wild(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.57	Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-07	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.57	USA vs Iran in World Cup 2026?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-04-30	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will the US average gas price fall below $4.00 in May 2026?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-30	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	EXELON CORP (EXC) (CIK 0001109357)	edgar_8k 2026-04-30	246_010 SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	43%
0.57	Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Golden Knights vs. Utah(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.57	Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	LoL: FURIA Esports vs RED Canids (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	LoL: FURIA Esports vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	LoL: FURIA Esports vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	241_061 China robots will compete as replacement for dogs / low-cost consumer use (now; useful later) Eric Schmidt	Robotics	44%
0.57	Will France win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.57	Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Netanyahu out by May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	Netanyahu out by May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.57	Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Valorant: LOUD vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	243_001 Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.57	Will Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.0 million tonnes?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-05-04	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	Will Hindalco Industries's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 1.4 million tonnes?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	48%
0.57	Will Hindalco Industries's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 1.4 million tonnes?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_014 Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. Morgan Stanley	Energy	42%
0.57	Who will win the 2026 Internazionali BNL d'Italia (Rome ATP 1000)?	manifold 2026-05-04	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will "Dairy cows make their misery expensive (but t..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-04	231_005 Next year frontier reasoning costs will be pennies (down from ~$7 now). Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.57	NHL Stanley Cup Round 2 Series Winner 2026	manifold 2026-05-04	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Spread: Pistons (-3.5)(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.57	Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Counter-Strike: NeverPlay vs Pitstop crew (BO3) - Exort Series Contenders Stage(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.57	What will voter turnout be in the next UK general election?	manifold 2026-05-05	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.57	Talen Energy Corp (TLN) (CIK 0001622536)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.57	Bristow Group Inc. (VTOL) (CIK 0001525221)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	30%
0.57	Enovix Corp (ENVX) (CIK 0001828318)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	FDA BLA761139: ENHERTU (FAM-TRASTUZUMAB DERUXTECAN-NXKI) — DAIICHI SANKYO	fda 2026-05-15	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.57	FDA ANDA207037: OLMESARTAN MEDOXOMIL AND HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE (HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE) — ALKEM LABS LTD	fda 2026-04-23	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.57	FDA ANDA219973: PANTOPRAZOLE SODIUM (PANTOPRAZOLE SODIUM) — SHUANGCHENG	fda 2026-04-22	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.57	FDA ANDA216068: ENZALUTAMIDE (ENZALUTAMIDE) — SANDOZ	fda 2026-04-20	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	FDA ANDA220313: GLYCEROL PHENYLBUTYRATE (GLYCEROL PHENYLBUTYRATE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA	fda 2026-04-15	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.57	FDA ANDA219408: DAPAGLIFLOZIN (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — SCIEGEN PHARMACEUTICALS INC	fda 2026-04-30	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	meta-llama/llama-api-typescript v0.2.3	github_release 2025-09-29	CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic	AI	80%
0.57	meta-llama/llama-api-typescript v0.2.1	github_release 2025-09-03	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.57	meta-llama/llama-api-typescript v0.1.5	github_release 2025-08-13	237_019 Code generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript instead of Rust for memory safety. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	meta-llama/llama-api-typescript v0.1.4	github_release 2025-08-13	237_019 Code generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript instead of Rust for memory safety. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.17.1	github_release 2024-10-24	INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	48%
0.57	pytorch/pytorch v2.5.1	github_release 2024-10-29	INF_042 Current market panic over AI compute and power will follow the historical pattern 'shortage leads to oversupply' — trillions flowing into data centers, GPU manufacturing, and energy procurement will ultimately crash the marginal cost of both compute an... Marc Andreessen	Macro/Economy	48%
0.57	pytorch/pytorch v1.10.2	github_release 2022-01-27	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.57	1x-technologies/halodi-unity-package-registry-manager 1.0.4	github_release 2023-08-29	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.57	Spread: Knicks (-10.5)(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	Will I solve a TSTST problem with MMP?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-05-04	235_015 GPT5-caliber model could shrink to 30-40B parameters, potentially as low as 1-2B or millions. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Enhancing Self-Supervised Talking Head Forgery Detection via a Training-Free Dual-System Framework	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.57	A second-order method landing on the Stiefel manifold via Newton$\unicode{x2013}$Schulz iteration	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	Graph Neural Networks in the Wilson Loop Representation of Abelian Lattice Gauge Theories	arxiv 2026-05-05	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.57	Tempered Guided Diffusion	arxiv 2026-05-05	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.57	Distributed Deep Variational Approach for Privacy-preserving Data Release	arxiv 2026-05-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Algebraic constructions of code lattices in Narain conformal field theories	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.57	On the Algebraic Origin of Four-Dimensional Space-time in the IIB Matrix Model: Dimensional Selection via Rigid Supersymmetry	arxiv 2026-05-05	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Chiral symmetry breaking and inhomogeneous phases in thermal anti-de Sitter spacetime	arxiv 2026-05-04	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Pseudo-Evanescent Feynman Integrals from Local Subtraction	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.57	Can wormholes have vanishing Love numbers?	arxiv 2026-05-04	234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.57	Can wormholes have vanishing Love numbers?	arxiv 2026-05-04	245_021 Engineered all-male screworms released via gene drive will cause species die-off over time Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	45%
0.57	Parafermionic and decoupled multicritical points in a frustrated $\mathbb{Z}_6$ clock chain	arxiv 2026-05-04	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.57	FDA ANDA210154: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — ZYDUS PHARMS	fda 2026-04-27	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA ANDA205756: METHYLPHENIDATE HYDROCHLORIDE (METHYLPHENIDATE HYDROCHLORIDE) — RISING	fda 2026-04-29	245_009 Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	45%
0.57	FDA ANDA040719: METHYLPREDNISOLONE ACETATE (METHYLPREDNISOLONE ACETATE) — SANDOZ	fda 2026-04-10	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.57	FDA NDA215430: AUVELITY (BUPROPION HYDROCHLORIDE) — AXSOME	fda 2026-04-30	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO5) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Playoffs(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.57	Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will anyone trick me into sending them exactly M$1000 via managram? [Convince the Machine #10](market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-05-06	236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	53%
0.57	Distilling Bayesian Belief States into Language Models for Auditable Negotiation	arxiv 2026-05-06	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.57	facebookresearch/balance 0.4.0	github_release 2023-02-08	235_010 Plugins/marketplaces will get built into baseline models and won't need to exist independently. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.57	facebookresearch/balance 0.3.1	github_release 2023-02-01	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.57	New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage(market prob: 89%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-04	SEM_016 Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chain resilience. David Friedberg	Semis/Geopolitics	24%
0.57	China uses military force to take Taiwan by July 1, 2026(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-05-08	240_030 Tesla's independent chip production would derisk potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	35%
0.57	China uses military force to take Taiwan by July 1, 2026(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-05-08	242_037 China will land on the moon before end of 2030 China (government)	Space	46%
0.57	Continuous-Time Distribution Matching for Few-Step Diffusion Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-07	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Debiased Multimodal Personality Understanding through Dual Causal Intervention	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.57	Diffusion model for SU(N) gauge theories	arxiv 2026-05-07	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.57	BoostLLM: Boosting-inspired LLM Fine-tuning for Few-shot Tabular Classification	arxiv 2026-05-07	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	Time-Fractional Schrödinger Evolution in Coupled Double Quantum Dots: Memory Effects on Quantum Resources	arxiv 2026-05-06	247_037 Quantum computing will not break Bitcoin (Mike Saylor position) Michael Saylor	Crypto	54%
0.57	Expectation values after an integrable boundary quantum quench	arxiv 2026-05-06	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Expectation values after an integrable boundary quantum quench	arxiv 2026-05-06	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Landscape of Spontaneous CP Violation	arxiv 2026-05-06	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	FDA BLA761183: TZIELD (TEPLIZUMAB-MZWV) — PROVENTION BIO INC	fda 2026-06-12	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.57	FDA BLA761183: TZIELD (TEPLIZUMAB-MZWV) — PROVENTION BIO INC	fda 2026-06-12	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Regular Season(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10?(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS, INC. (AAOI) (CIK 0001158114)	edgar_8k 2026-05-08	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.57	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	92%
0.57	Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 214.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Oeiras 4: Billy Harris vs Petr Brunclik(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Passion UA (+1.5)(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	Gitlab Inc. (GTLB) (CIK 0001653482)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028 Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028	humanoid_deployment	50%
0.57	GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. (GEHC) (CIK 0001932393)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.57	HELIOS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (HLIO) (CIK 0001024795)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.57	TERADYNE, INC (TER) (CIK 0000097210)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	235_031 Eli Lilly perilously close to $1 trillion market cap at ~$950B. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	39%
0.57	MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA) (CIK 0001507605)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	facebookresearch/spdl v0.1.6	github_release 2025-10-28	232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	70%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Liquid vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13?(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	231_016 Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will go away. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.57	Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5)(market prob: 78%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2025-11-28	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.57	Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	How many minutes will CLASH (HS) be delayed by?	manifold 2026-05-12	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.57	ENTERGY CORP /DE/ (ETR) (CIK 0000065984)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.57	ENTERGY CORP /DE/ (ETR) (CIK 0000065984)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.57	AMPHENOL CORP /DE/ (APH) (CIK 0000820313)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.57	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 2.1.0	github_release 2025-11-11	232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	70%
0.57	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.5.7	github_release 2025-01-31	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.57	Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Will Kash Patel still be FBI Director On 1st July 2026(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-05-13	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.57	Enovix Corp (ENVX) (CIK 0001828318)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS, INC. (AAOI) (CIK 0001158114)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.57	AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES INC (AKAM) (CIK 0001086222)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.57	Game Handicap: BRO (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5)(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS, INC. (AAOI) (CIK 0001158114)	edgar_8k 2026-05-14	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.57	ArcVQ-VAE: A Spherical Vector Quantization Framework with ArcCosine Additive Margin	arxiv 2026-05-13	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.57	Towards a holistic understanding of Selection Bias for Causal Effect Identification	arxiv 2026-05-13	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.57	EvObj: Learning Evolving Object-centric Representations for 3D Instance Segmentation without Scene Supervision	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	FDA NDA205422: REXULTI (BREXPIPRAZOLE) — OTSUKA	fda 2026-04-30	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA NDA205422: REXULTI (BREXPIPRAZOLE) — OTSUKA	fda 2026-04-30	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA NDA021343: ELIGARD KIT (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — TOLMAR	fda 2026-05-06	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.57	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-01-07	FUT_014 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	55%
0.57	Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	LoL: Movistar KOI vs GIANTX (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 209.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 15?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	Which team will win the 2026 MLS Cup (all 30 teams in market) Polymarket and Kalshi in description	manifold 2026-05-15	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	RoSHAP: A Distributional Framework and Robust Metric for Stable Feature Attribution	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.57	Deep Image Segmentation via Discriminant Feature Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.57	All-atomistic Transferable Neural Potentials for Protein Solvation	arxiv 2026-05-14	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.57	AudioMosaic: Contrastive Masked Audio Representation Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	FDA ANDA079204: LAMOTRIGINE (LAMOTRIGINE) — TARO	fda 2026-05-06	248_030 FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.57	FDA ANDA200880: ACETAZOLAMIDE SODIUM (ACETAZOLAMIDE SODIUM) — MYLAN ASI	fda 2026-05-07	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA NDA019414: CARDIOGEN-82 (RUBIDIUM CHLORIDE RB-82) — BRACCO	fda 2026-05-13	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	facebookresearch/hydra v1.0.7	github_release 2021-07-15	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.57	facebookresearch/hydra v1.0.5	github_release 2021-01-07	234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.57	facebookresearch/hydra v1.0.3	github_release 2020-09-23	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.57	facebookresearch/hydra v1.0.0	github_release 2020-09-03	CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic	AI	80%
0.57	facebookresearch/hydra v1.0.0rc4	github_release 2020-08-18	234_050 Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilities Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	Will Justin Rose win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 4 Winner(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.57	Driver allowed to sleep while car drives itself by?	manifold 2026-05-17	246_033 Insecurity of human-authored code will be recognized before insecurity of human drivers is legally. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Tom Holland announced as next James Bond?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-08-04	237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn	Crypto	43%
0.57	Zhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopards(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2025-07-11	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	ONTO INNOVATION INC. (ONTO) (CIK 0000704532)	edgar_8k 2026-05-18	238_027 OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES INC (AKAM) (CIK 0001086222)	edgar_8k 2026-05-18	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.57	Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-17	S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027	energy_grid_expansion	40%
0.57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Spread: Knicks (-5.5)(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.57	Counter-Strike: ex-KRÜ Esports vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Series 2 Group Stage(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Will Rob Thomson win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group B(market prob: 74%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.57	Will I get any money again from manifold this year?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-18	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	What will trump say this week? (Kalshi)	manifold 2026-05-18	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Gitlab Inc. (GTLB) (CIK 0001653482)	edgar_8k 2026-05-19	S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028 Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028	humanoid_deployment	50%
0.57	Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-05-24	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Will David Njoku play for Denver Broncos in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-02	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	Will David Njoku play for Denver Broncos in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Raphael Collignon win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.57	Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 78%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	New York Yankees vs. Athletics(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-05-24	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Spread: Thunder (-2.5)(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.57	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Claude Opus 4.8 METR 50% time horizon	manifold 2026-05-30	S_GRID_50GW_2029 50GW grid expansion by Dec 2029	energy_grid_expansion	50%
0.57	Claude Opus 4.8 METR 50% time horizon	manifold 2026-05-30	S_GRID_50GW_2029 50GW grid expansion by Dec 2029	energy_grid_expansion	50%
0.57	1 in 6 Adults are NEET in 2031 (UK)(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-05-28	247_022 Companies will run with 20-25% of previous workforce, spawn 4-5x more companies Salim Ismail	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.57	How many people will end up with a NSBA4 Combine Score equal to 15	manifold 2026-05-27	235_018 Single-person conglomerates with agents running businesses will be common in ~5 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	Labor/Jobs	39%
0.57	Will Trump's approval rating hit 37.4% or lower on Silver Bulletin by the end of June 2027?(market prob: 82%)	manifold 2026-05-25	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	BROADWIND, INC. (BWEN) (CIK 0001120370)	edgar_8k 2026-05-29	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	61%
0.57	PARCEL: Pool-Anchored Resampling with Conditioned Elastic Queries for Efficient Vision-Language Understanding	arxiv 2026-05-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Brain-IT-VQA: From Brain Signals to Answers	arxiv 2026-05-28	248_033 Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. Dave Blundin	AI	37%
0.57	Audio Deepfake Detection with Half-Truth Localisation Using Cross-Attentive Feature Fusion	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.57	Corner Quantization of 4D $BF$ Theory	arxiv 2026-05-28	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Gate Parameter Lee-Yang Zeros and Dynamical Phases in Quantum Circuits	arxiv 2026-05-28	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.57	Criticality in the disordered $N$-color Ashkin-Teller model	arxiv 2026-05-28	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.57	FDA ANDA204994: LACOSAMIDE (LACOSAMIDE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-05-22	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA NDA212035: ARGATROBAN IN SODIUM CHLORIDE (ARGATROBAN) — ACCORD HLTHCARE	fda 2026-05-21	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.57	FDA NDA219943: KOSELUGO (SELUMETINIB) — ASTRAZENECA	fda 2026-05-26	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-04	246_011 Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. Dave Blundin	AI	42%
0.57	Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Set 1 Winner: Tiafoe vs Arnaldi(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	Do you like 46% odds?(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-05-31	244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.57	FDA ANDA203708: OLANZAPINE (OLANZAPINE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-05-26	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA NDA213756: KOSELUGO (SELUMETINIB SULFATE) — ASTRAZENECA	fda 2026-05-26	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	FDA ANDA210215: AMANTADINE HYDROCHLORIDE (AMANTADINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — POM PHARMA	fda 2026-05-13	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-11-14	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Is Campbell marks swan a demon in the bacheloret(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-06-02	248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail	Robotics	34%
0.57	Which will be the best meme posted in #memefold in June 2026 according to Manifold?	manifold 2026-06-01	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.57	Gitlab Inc. (GTLB) (CIK 0001653482)	edgar_8k 2026-06-02	S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028 Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028	humanoid_deployment	50%
0.57	QUANTUM CORP /DE/ (QMCO) (CIK 0000709283)	edgar_8k 2026-06-02	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.57	HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd. (HIVE) (CIK 0001720424)	edgar_8k 2026-06-02	CMQ_040 AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant global memory suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). Samsung executives	Semis/Memory	62%
0.57	HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd. (HIVE) (CIK 0001720424)	edgar_8k 2026-06-02	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.57	Repair Before Veto: Repair-Augmented Constraint Learning for Contextual Decisions	arxiv 2026-06-01	231_008 AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.57	Consistency Training while Mitigating Obfuscation via Rate Matching	arxiv 2026-06-01	230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.57	Hallucination-Aware Diffusion Sampling for Inverse Problems via Robust Prior Updates	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.57	Low-Pass Flow Matching	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.57	PaCX-MAE: Physiology-Augmented Chest X-Ray Masked Autoencoder	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.57	Challenger at MultiPRIDE: Is It Hate Speech or Reclaimed?	arxiv 2026-05-31	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	FDA NDA219423: WIDAPLIK (AMLODIPINE BESYLATE) — AZURITY	fda 2026-05-28	SEM_020 Nvidia preemptively reserved 800,000-850,000 TSMC wafers for 2026 — 8x SMIC's entire advanced-process capacity. Nvidia (All-In Podcast analysis)	Semis	74%
0.57	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.2.5	github_release 2023-07-29	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.57	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.2.5	github_release 2023-07-29	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.57	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.2.3	github_release 2022-12-08	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.57	Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	T20 Blast: Surrey vs Middlesex(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	will we (husband + me) move back to our hometown within 3 years?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-06-03	242_049 W-2 income will get pummeled over next 3 years; assets will appreciate Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.57	Bristow Group Inc. (VTOL) (CIK 0001525221)	edgar_8k 2026-06-03	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	30%
0.57	FDA NDA202811: LINZESS (LINACLOTIDE) — ABBVIE	fda 2026-05-21	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.57	Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Karl Poling(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2025-07-24	247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Which is first in 2026: Starship refueling, New Glenn RTF, or Neutron?	manifold 2026-06-04	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	30%
0.57	Will "My favorite depiction of utopia" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-03	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.57	Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.57	Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.57	Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.57	Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	How many of the so-called "Big 6" will finish in the Premier League top 6 in 2026-27?	manifold 2026-06-05	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.57	QCFuse: Query-Aware Cache Fusion via Compressed View for Efficient RAG Serving	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_059 Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds. Alex Finn	AI	62%
0.57	HDST-GNN: Heterogeneous Dynamic Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks for Multi-Object Tracking in UAV Aerial Imagery	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.57	LLM Explainability with Counterfactual Chains and Causal Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-04	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.57	"Chi nas dal soch el sent de legn" -- Auditing Text Corpora for Lombard	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.57	A French Corpus Annotated for Multiword Expressions with Adverbial Function	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	Quantum Geometry from Area Fluctuations	arxiv 2026-06-04	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	$E_\infty^{1,2}$-type Lieb-Schultz-Mattis anomalies, deconfined quantum critical points, and non-invertible symmetry breaking	arxiv 2026-06-04	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.57	Spin-orbit correlation of quarks within quarkonium	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.57	Bulk viscosity of a binary mixture: the role of the intra-species interaction	arxiv 2026-06-04	248_031 Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	39%
0.57	Lecture notes: Introduction to the Off-shell Double Copy Program	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_004 By approximately 2027-2028, collaborative AI programs will essentially 'solve physics' — unifying general relativity and quantum mechanics into a new mathematical framework; the core mission of DeepMind is to 'first solve AI, then use AI to solve every... Demis Hassabis	AI	8%
0.57	Detecting Topological Transitions and Anisotropy through Multipartite Entanglement in Holographic Weyl Semimetals	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	The Double Well Done Doubly-Well	arxiv 2026-06-03	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.57	Thermal Positivity	arxiv 2026-06-03	240_032 PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	Multi-entropy in random tensor networks	arxiv 2026-06-03	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.57	FDA ANDA218407: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — SUN PHARM INDS INC	fda 2026-06-03	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Best gif competition : Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 416(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-06	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.57	FIFA World Cup (2026) Team Goals	manifold 2026-06-06	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.57	Total Sets Played Across 2026 French Open Men's and Women's Finals	manifold 2026-06-05	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.57	APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS, INC. (AAOI) (CIK 0001158114)	edgar_8k 2026-06-05	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.57	QUANTUM CORP /DE/ (QMCO) (CIK 0000709283)	edgar_8k 2026-06-05	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.57	NETFLIX INC (NFLX) (CIK 0001065280)	edgar_8k 2026-06-05	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	61%
0.57	Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock	Robotics	37%
0.57	The King's Gauntlet winner? (Hera's AoE2 streamer invitational)	manifold 2026-06-07	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	Will a new country join NATO before 1 January 2027?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-06-07	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.57	Will Brent crude oil settle at or above $100/barrel on any trading day before July 1, 2026?(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-06-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	A robust PPG foundation model using multimodal physiological supervision	arxiv 2026-06-05	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.57	EgoPressDiff: Multimodal Video Diffusion for Egocentric UV-Domain Hand-Pressure Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Your UnEmbedding Matrix is Secretly a Feature Lens for Text Embeddings	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.57	An Expanded Synthetic Conversation Dataset for Multi-Turn Smishing Detection	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.57	Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.57	Will FromSoftware release new content for Elden Ring: Nightreign by EOY 2026?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-06-08	INF_034 Equinix has 56 planned data-center projects including 13 xScale developments designed for high-density power-hungry AI workloads — slated to be fully operational by 2026. Equinix	Real Estate	49%
0.57	Will I receive both my t shirt and my cap before the thirty first of August 2026 CEST 11:59 PM(market prob: 80%)	manifold 2026-06-08	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.57	Ocean Power Technologies, Inc. (OPTT) (CIK 0001378140)	edgar_8k 2026-06-08	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.57	INNODATA INC (INOD) (CIK 0000903651)	edgar_8k 2026-06-08	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Cholet vs. Paris Basketball(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Tyreek Hill play for the Baltimore Ravens next?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Australia vs Bangladesh ODI and T20 series [ADD Predictions]	manifold 2026-06-09	234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail	Geopolitics	44%
0.57	CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-06-09	235_033 Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	52%
0.57	Will England reach the semi-finals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 49%)	manifold 2026-06-09	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.57	Free Mana Part 3:All Options Resolves to YES (you can add answers in alphabetical or numerical form)	manifold 2026-06-09	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	Ocean Power Technologies, Inc. (OPTT) (CIK 0001378140)	edgar_8k 2026-06-09	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.57	An Enhanced Geometric-Spectral Feature Learning Framework for Airborne Multispectral Point Cloud Classification	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.57	Driving Video Retrieval for Complex Queries with Structured Grounding	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.57	Driving Video Retrieval for Complex Queries with Structured Grounding	arxiv 2026-06-08	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.57	Is Exact Markovianity Fundamental Once Time Is Relational?	arxiv 2026-06-07	231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.57	FDA ANDA217298: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — MSN	fda 2026-06-03	248_030 FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.57	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-22	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-22	CMQ_018 By 2027-2028, the strategic value of superintelligence + impossible trillion-dollar infrastructure cost will trigger government consolidation of AGI development — 'The Project'. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Geopolitics	35%
0.57	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-22	IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	22%
0.57	Will George Pickens play for Atlanta Falcons in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-27	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.57	Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.57	Spread: Knicks (-1.5)(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	Will silver hit $60/oz by close on Friday?(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-06-10	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	鹅腿阿姨卖鸭腿事件:市监部门最终会做出哪种处理?(2026/8/31前) / "Goose-leg Auntie" duck-leg case: final penalty?	manifold 2026-06-10	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Minimum Distortion Quantization with Specified Output Distribution	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Towards Robust Arabic Speech Emotion Recognition with Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	232_011 Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.57	Unsupervised Style Representation Learning for AI-Text Detection via Paraphrase Inversion	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.57	ArabiGEE: A Hierarchical Taxonomy for Arabic Grammatical Error Explanation	arxiv 2026-06-09	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	Calling the Brane Next Door: The Kaluza-Klein Tower as a Gravitational Information Channel	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.57	Will Ashlyn Krueger be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.57	Will Ashlyn Krueger be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.57	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	24%
0.57	Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock	Robotics	20%
0.57	Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.57	MSUE: Multi-Modal Soccer Understanding Expert	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.57	Quality Adaptive Angular Margin Learning for Respiratory Sound Classification	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	Feature-Aligned Speech Watermarking for Robustness to Reconstruction Distortions	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.57	RCAP: Robust, Class-Aware, Probabilistic Dynamic Dataset Pruning	arxiv 2026-06-10	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Capacity-Constrained Online Convex Optimization with Delayed Feedback	arxiv 2026-06-10	238_038 Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Invariants of Sequential Circuits and Generalized Non-Abelian Statistics	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 TOUR Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 12, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.57	Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	Enovix Corp (ENVX) (CIK 0001828318)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	Ontology Memory-Augmented ASR Correction for Long Text-Speech Interleaved Conversations	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.57	Distributional Loss for Robust Classification	arxiv 2026-06-11	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Computationally tractable robust differentially private mean estimation	arxiv 2026-06-10	AI_028 Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey's launch of Bitchat — will become critical infrastructure for verifiable human communication as the internet is flooded with synthetic content and deep... Jack Dorsey	Crypto	28%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	facebookresearch/fairseq v0.10.1	github_release 2020-11-21	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.57	facebookresearch/fairseq v0.6.1	github_release 2019-02-09	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.57	LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 88%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.57	Spread: Portugal (-1.5)(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Will Depay Memphis be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-14	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.57	ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh(market prob: 89%)	polymarket 2026-06-14	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	Talen Energy Corp (TLN) (CIK 0001622536)	edgar_8k 2026-06-15	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.57	HELIOS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (HLIO) (CIK 0001024795)	edgar_8k 2026-06-15	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.57	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.7.9	github_release 2025-11-28	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.57	Will Sadio Mane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	Will Sadio Mane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will Sadio Mane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Will Madina Okot win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5(market prob: 94%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Spread: Colombia (-1.5)(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?(market prob: 82%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.57	When will the next regular Nintendo Direct take place?	manifold 2026-06-16	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.57	Does Saudi Arabia normalize with Israel before December 31 2028?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-06-15	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS, INC. (AAOI) (CIK 0001158114)	edgar_8k 2026-06-16	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.57	Exact Posterior Score Estimation for Solving Linear Inverse Problems	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	The BD-LSC Dataset: Facilitating the Benchmarking of Models for Lexical Semantic Change Detection in Slang and Standard Usage	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	92%
0.57	Generalized Unimodular Gravity and Cosmological Perturbations	arxiv 2026-06-15	248_025 Religion will consolidate globally around fewer major religions while proliferating micro cults/sects. Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.57	Generalized Unimodular Gravity and Cosmological Perturbations	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_004 By approximately 2027-2028, collaborative AI programs will essentially 'solve physics' — unifying general relativity and quantum mechanics into a new mathematical framework; the core mission of DeepMind is to 'first solve AI, then use AI to solve every... Demis Hassabis	AI	8%