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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.57	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 94%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 94%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 78%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Lavked (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	What time will my 13 year old son leave the house for his paper round on Wednesday 13th May?	manifold 2026-05-11	229_022 Figure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing end-to-end home work during 2026. Brett Adcock	Robotics	38%
0.57	What will my Zetamac score (average of 5) be in a week?	manifold 2026-05-11	231_002 Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	FDA NDA021488: ELIGARD KIT (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — TOLMAR	fda 2026-05-06	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA NDA021488: ELIGARD KIT (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — TOLMAR	fda 2026-05-06	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Trump meets Xi Jinping again in 2026?(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-05-13	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.57	CISCO SYSTEMS, INC. (CSCO) (CIK 0000858877)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.57	Tenable Holdings, Inc. (TENB) (CIK 0001660280)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	245_003 Colossal's $10B valuation is massively undervalued Ben Lamm	Markets/Stocks	30%
0.57	Tenable Holdings, Inc. (TENB) (CIK 0001660280)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.57	AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES INC (AKAM) (CIK 0001086222)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang	Policy/Semis	66%
0.57	Gradient Clipping Beyond Vector Norms: A Spectral Approach for Matrix-Valued Parameters	arxiv 2026-05-12	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.57	Learning U-Statistics with Active Inference	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	EqOD: Symmetry-Informed Stability Selection for PDE Identification	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	FDA ANDA071199: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — BARR	fda 2026-05-05	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.57	LoL: GIANTX vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Will Starmer contest a leadership challenge?(market prob: 61%)	manifold 2026-05-14	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.57	How many candidates will take part in the next UK Labour leadership election?	manifold 2026-05-14	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER CO INC (AEP) (CIK 0000004904)	edgar_8k 2026-05-14	240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.57	AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER CO INC (AEP) (CIK 0000004904)	edgar_8k 2026-05-14	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	R-DMesh: Video-Guided 3D Animation via Rectified Dynamic Mesh Flow	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.57	Bayesian Nonparametric Mixed-Effect ODEs with Gaussian Processes	arxiv 2026-05-13	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA ANDA215826: LEUPROLIDE ACETATE (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — ZYDUS PHARMS	fda 2026-05-06	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.57	FDA BLA761100: ONTRUZANT (TRASTUZUMAB-DTTB) — SAMSUNG BIOEPIS CO LTD	fda 2026-04-15	CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	24%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi	Other	53%
0.57	LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	IND_007 Massive 'Corporate Collapse' 2026 as legacy businesses fail to integrate GPT-5 level capabilities — specifically predicting a 1.1 million job loss event tied to this transition. AI intelligence growth by end-2026 comparable to evolutionary leap 'from a... Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	34%
0.57	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 15?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	22%
0.57	Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will the Bun rewrite in Rust stick?(market prob: 79%)	manifold 2026-05-14	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.57	Globalstar, Inc. (GSAT) (CIK 0001366868)	edgar_8k 2026-05-15	SPC_001 The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 trillion by 2040 — fueled by higher launch cadences, new product introductions, and mature policy support characterizing the 2026 fiscal landscape. Morgan Stanley	Space	60%
0.57	Multi-Block Attention for Efficient Channel Estimation in IRS-Assisted mmWave MIMO	arxiv 2026-05-14	INF_043 Unit cost of intelligence will drop at a rate far exceeding Moore's Law, driving explosive demand growth that filters out to edge devices and localized small models. Marc Andreessen	AI	47%
0.57	FDA BLA761331: WEZLANA (USTEKINUMAB-AUUB) — AMGEN INC	fda 2026-05-12	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA ANDA063181: MINOCYCLINE HYDROCHLORIDE (MINOCYCLINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — WATSON LABS TEVA	fda 2026-05-12	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	Will Trump and Putin meet next in Australia?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-30	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.57	Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Vexa vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Series 2 Group Stage(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will I get COVID ten times before getting hantavirus?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-05-16	236_024 Commercial real estate will come under tremendous pressure Andrew Yang	Real Estate	51%
0.57	USA stage of elimination at fifa World Cup?	manifold 2026-05-16	245_020 Screworm will decimate US cattle and bison industry Ben Lamm	Other	45%
0.57	FDA NDA021379: ELIGARD KIT (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — TOLMAR	fda 2026-05-06	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA ANDA077982: ALENDRONATE SODIUM (ALENDRONATE SODIUM) — APOTEX	fda 2026-05-07	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA ANDA079204: LAMOTRIGINE (LAMOTRIGINE) — TARO	fda 2026-05-06	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	facebookresearch/hydra v1.3.1	github_release 2022-12-21	242_051 Dyson swarm compute infrastructure will be realized in a few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.57	facebookresearch/hydra v1.0.0rc1	github_release 2020-08-18	237_002 We will see a lot of evolution and many OpenClaw variants emerging very quickly as an early domain being developed. Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.57	Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 36%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	39%
0.57	Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-05-17	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Biggest AfD–CDU/CSU poll gap in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-17	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.57	2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Round of 32	manifold 2026-05-17	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	Hamburg European Open: Jakub Mensik vs Jan-Lennard Struff(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Spread: Thunder (-5.5)(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Ebola case in the US by June 30?(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.57	Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Which countries will be designated state sponsors of terrorism by the US at the end of 2027?	manifold 2026-05-18	FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	62%
0.57	Coursera, Inc. (COUR) (CIK 0001651562)	edgar_8k 2026-05-18	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES INC (AKAM) (CIK 0001086222)	edgar_8k 2026-05-18	SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang	Policy/Semis	66%
0.57	Spurs vs. Thunder(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	243_025 Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.57	Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-09-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Who will win the 2026 Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff	manifold 2026-05-19	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	New fish species (market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-19	IND_005 Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~... Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	33%
0.57	Will the 2026 NBA Finals reach a Game 6?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-18	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Lost in the Folds: When Cross-Validation Is Not a Deep Ensemble for Uncertainty Estimation	arxiv 2026-05-18	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.57	facebookresearch/momentum v0.1.109	github_release 2026-04-12	S_ASI_SLOW_2040PLUS ASI slow: post-2040 / soft takeoff	asi_recursive_self_improvement	60%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #2 Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Will David Njoku play for Miami Dolphins in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-02	237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn	Crypto	43%
0.57	Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m?(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.57	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Spread: Thunder (-2.5)(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-14	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-28	FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	30%
0.57	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.57	F1 2026 Monaco Grand Prix Pole Position	manifold 2026-05-30	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Resolves to the side with the most holders at market close(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Will the US strike Oman before June 16?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-05-28	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	JD Vance out as VP before...?	manifold 2026-05-28	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	World cup 2026 winner	manifold 2026-05-27	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.57	World cup 2026 winner	manifold 2026-05-27	COD_SPC_004 Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	48%
0.57	What will trump say this week? May 25th-May 31st (Kalshi)	manifold 2026-05-26	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Ju Wenjun - Vaishali score in the 2026 FIDE Women World Chess Championship	manifold 2026-05-25	S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path	agi_general_capability	35%
0.57	Privacy-Enhanced Zero-Order Federated Learning via xMK-CKKS over Wireless Channels	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.57	A Triple-Modal Contrastive Learning Framework with Sequence, Graph, and 3D Features for Drug-Target Interaction Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_012 NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a decade — Evo 2 achieves 90% accuracy in BRCA1 predictions; AI models will seamlessly transition generated biological designs into practical, synthesized clinical... Jensen Huang	Biotech/Longevity	68%
0.57	Joint Angle Estimation with Customized Wristband Based on Online Incremental Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.57	Joint Angle Estimation with Customized Wristband Based on Online Incremental Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.57	Black Hole Photon Rings Saturate the Quantum Chaos Bound	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.57	Hypercomplex Yang-Mills Theory as a Bipartite Gauge Field Model	arxiv 2026-05-28	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.57	FDA NDA208573: VENCLEXTA (VENETOCLAX) — ABBVIE	fda 2026-05-20	245_009 Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	45%
0.57	FDA BLA761449: TYENNE (TOCILIZUMAB-AAZG) — FRESENIUS KABI USA	fda 2026-05-20	TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event	—	15%
0.57	FDA BLA761111: NYVEPRIA (PEGFILGRASTIM-APGF) — HOSPIRA INC	fda 2026-05-21	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-23	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	Pallacanestro Brescia vs. Olimpia Milano(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2025-12-04	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	234_034 Andrew Yang predicts 20-50% of 70M US white collar workers could be displaced in 1-2 years Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.57	Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2025-11-25	FUT_023 'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	68%
0.57	Next James Bond officially announced before end of June 2026?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-06-01	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.57	Samsara Inc. (IOT) (CIK 0001642896)	edgar_8k 2026-06-01	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.57	Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) (CIK 0001108524)	edgar_8k 2026-06-01	AI_013 'SaaSpocalypse' — traditional Software-as-a-Service incumbents (Salesforce, Adobe, HubSpot) will see massive sustained declines in market capitalization; AI lowers the barrier to creating bespoke customized software, eliminating the SaaS subscription m... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	35%
0.57	FDA ANDA040054: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — HIKMA	fda 2026-05-27	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	facebookresearch/nle v0.2.0	github_release 2020-07-30	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.57	T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Counter-Strike: BIG vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5)(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.57	Skeletor is gonna reference the meme “until we meet again”?(market prob: 79%)	manifold 2026-06-02	229_032 Figure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that remembers, over the next year or two. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.57	Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) (CIK 0001108524)	edgar_8k 2026-06-02	AI_013 'SaaSpocalypse' — traditional Software-as-a-Service incumbents (Salesforce, Adobe, HubSpot) will see massive sustained declines in market capitalization; AI lowers the barrier to creating bespoke customized software, eliminating the SaaS subscription m... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	35%
0.57	Consistency Training while Mitigating Obfuscation via Rate Matching	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.57	Multilingual Idioms in Sentences and Conversations Across High-, Medium-, and Low-Resource Languages	arxiv 2026-06-01	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.57	Rank-Constrained Deep Matrix Completion for Group Recommendation	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	Hallucination-Aware Diffusion Sampling for Inverse Problems via Robust Prior Updates	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.57	Realistic noise synthesis reduces bias and improves tissue microstructure estimation with supervised machine learning	arxiv 2026-06-01	248_032 First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be non-destructive. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	42%
0.57	Semi-Supervised Hyperbolic Hierarchical Clustering with Set-Level Structural Priors	arxiv 2026-06-01	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	Semi-Supervised Hyperbolic Hierarchical Clustering with Set-Level Structural Priors	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Perception First: A Frontier Native-Video Model with Self-Consistency for Implicit Video Question Answering	arxiv 2026-05-31	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.57	Leaf Spectral Reflectance Prediction Using Multi-Head Attention Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-31	SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	56%
0.57	TalkTag: Fine-Grained Morphosyntactic Error Annotation for Transcribed Speech	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.57	Dr. DocBench: A Comprehensive Benchmark for Expert-Level and Difficult Document Parsing	arxiv 2026-05-31	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.57	FDA ANDA201749: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — SUN PHARM	fda 2026-05-27	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	Will Maxx Crosby play for Jacksonville Jaguars next?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-6.5)(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Will an Average New Zealander born in the year 2000 live to 150? (RESOLVES IN A WEEK)(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-06-03	238_006 Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) Emad Mostaque	Labor/Jobs	40%
0.57	Will "Disclosure Day" earn more than $45M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-06-01	240_010 NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	NextDecade Corp (NEXT) (CIK 0001612720)	edgar_8k 2026-06-03	SEM_011 Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. Jensen Huang	Capital Markets	86%
0.57	RICHTECH ROBOTICS INC. (RR) (CIK 0001963685)	edgar_8k 2026-06-03	CMQ_051 Humanoid robots total addressable market by 2040: lower bound 1 billion units (exceeding cars on Earth); upper bound 10+ billion units. Brett Adcock / Elon Musk / Vinod Khosla	Robotics	37%
0.57	FDA BLA125166: SOLIRIS (ECULIZUMAB) — ALEXION PHARM	fda 2026-06-01	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.57	Will Kamaru Usman be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)(market prob: 37%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.57	Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Changers North America Playoffs(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	CYB_010 Agentic commerce will radically redistribute — not grow — the global commerce stack, severely affecting traditional software platforms, global payment processors, digital advertising networks, and physical logistics providers. Consumer delegation of pr... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	70%
0.57	Will there be a complete, professional looking comic book adaptation of HPMOR, before 2029?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-06-04	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.57	Samsara Inc. (IOT) (CIK 0001642896)	edgar_8k 2026-06-04	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.57	Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore	Semis/Products	71%
0.57	T20 Blast: Yorkshire vs Lancashire(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	Will July 2026 in Boston be one of the 5 warmest July's ever?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-06-05	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Days I'll create a market in June?	manifold 2026-06-02	247_047 Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030 Peter Diamandis	Energy	50%
0.57	HDST-GNN: Heterogeneous Dynamic Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks for Multi-Object Tracking in UAV Aerial Imagery	arxiv 2026-06-04	SPC_016 AI transforms Earth Observation satellites via on-orbit edge computing — parsing raw visual and radar data in space, downlinking only actionable insights rather than raw imagery; permanently handing tedious low-cognitive tasks to AI and reserving human... Ben Lamm	Space	72%
0.57	Noise-Aware Visual Representation Learning for Medical Visual Question Answering	arxiv 2026-06-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	T-SAR-JEPA: Self-Supervised Temporal Anomaly Detection in SAR Amplitude Stacks via Latent Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	T-SAR-JEPA: Self-Supervised Temporal Anomaly Detection in SAR Amplitude Stacks via Latent Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-04	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.57	Automatic Labelling of Speech Translation Errors	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.57	Automatic Labelling of Speech Translation Errors	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.57	NAVIRA: Decoupled Stochastic Remasking for Masked Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	QO-Bench: Diagnosing Query-Operator-Preserving Retrieval over Typed Event Tuples	arxiv 2026-06-03	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	TransTac: Visuo-Tactile Modality Transition via Ultraviolet-Encoded Transparent Elastomers	arxiv 2026-06-03	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.57	Spin-orbit correlation of quarks within quarkonium	arxiv 2026-06-04	235_040 Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	26%
0.57	Spin-orbit correlation of quarks within quarkonium	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Unitarity, Recursion and Soft Limits in (EA)dS through Dressing	arxiv 2026-06-03	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Unitarity, Recursion and Soft Limits in (EA)dS through Dressing	arxiv 2026-06-03	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.57	FDA ANDA215332: OXCARBAZEPINE (OXCARBAZEPINE) — AUCTA	fda 2026-06-02	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA NDA208400: XATMEP (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — AZURITY	fda 2026-05-27	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA NDA220482: NDA220482 ((unspecified)) — HAISCO PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP CO LTD	fda 2026-05-29	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.57	facebookresearch/exca 0.5.0	github_release 2025-10-22	247_012 The bar for AI startups will rise to require being recursively self-improving Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	39%
0.57	LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Reyer Venezia vs. Virtus Bologna(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Resolves to the side with the most holders at market close(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-06-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Absci Corp (ABSI) (CIK 0001672688)	edgar_8k 2026-06-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Trane Technologies plc (TT) (CIK 0001466258)	edgar_8k 2026-06-05	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.57	PROCORE TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (PCOR) (CIK 0001611052)	edgar_8k 2026-06-05	SEM_048 OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support Stargate chip acquisition). OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)	AI/Corporate	80%
0.57	Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #4 Group D(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.57	Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	229_026 By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months. Brett Adcock	Robotics	38%
0.57	Will Andrej Kramarić be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	F1: BARCELONA-CATALUNY 🇪🇸 GP 2026 WINNER 🏎️	manifold 2026-06-07	242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.57	Graph Neural Network leveraging Higher-order Class Label Connectivity for Heterophilous Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-05	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.57	Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.57	Iran Nuke before 2027?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2025-11-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Will Nicolai Højgaard win the 2026 TOUR Championship?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	What will appear in the June 9, 2026 Nintendo Direct?	manifold 2026-06-08	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.57	What will appear in the June 9, 2026 Nintendo Direct?	manifold 2026-06-08	247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis	Robotics	32%
0.57	Will any 2026 World Cup match be disrupted by security or weather?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-06-07	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.57	FDA ANDA078790: DIVALPROEX SODIUM (DIVALPROEX SODIUM) — LUPIN	fda 2026-05-28	245_009 Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	45%
0.57	New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Dec 2026?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-09	235_033 Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	52%
0.57	CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Dec 2026?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-09	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	30%
0.57	Will I be promoted to platinum at the end of this season?(market prob: 85%)	manifold 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Senseonics Holdings, Inc. (SENS) (CIK 0001616543)	edgar_8k 2026-06-08	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.57	Senseonics Holdings, Inc. (SENS) (CIK 0001616543)	edgar_8k 2026-06-08	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Structure-Aware Modeling of Multiple-Choice Questions Improves Automatic Difficulty Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-08	232_056 Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Overcoming Decoder Inconsistencies in Whisper for Dravidian and Low-Resource Languages	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.57	Overcoming Decoder Inconsistencies in Whisper for Dravidian and Low-Resource Languages	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.57	MUDIDI: A Two-Stage Framework for Multilingual Dictionary Digitization with Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.57	ClinicalAligner26AM: A Cross-Lingual Aligner for Dataset Translation; Evidences from the MultiClinCorpus Shared Task	arxiv 2026-06-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Relativistic Effects in Spin Correlations Induced by QED Scattering and Wigner Rotations	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.57	Spread: Knicks (-2.5)(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.57	Spread: Knicks (-1.5)(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	2026 FIFA World Cup top 4 variable payout	manifold 2026-06-10	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Will I reach a streak of 100 in Wordle?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-06-09	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.57	Will any major conference issue a ban on scheduling games with Texas Tech as a result of the Sorsby situation in 2026?(market prob: 49%)	manifold 2026-06-09	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	A Reliable Fault Diagnosis Method Based on Belief Rule Base Consider Robustness Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-09	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.57	$k$-Nearest Neighbors in Gromov--Wasserstein Space	arxiv 2026-06-09	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	ArabiGEE: A Hierarchical Taxonomy for Arabic Grammatical Error Explanation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	FDA ANDA207961: DABIGATRAN ETEXILATE MESYLATE (DABIGATRAN ETEXILATE MESYLATE) — HETERO LABS LTD III	fda 2026-06-05	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	FDA ANDA077132: RISEDRONATE SODIUM (RISEDRONATE SODIUM) — TEVA PHARMS USA	fda 2026-06-08	248_029 Regime change at the FDA is not beyond the realm of reason. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	35%
0.57	Will Jelena Ostapenko be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.57	Will Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-18	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	245_017 Disease/drought-resistant plants and animals market is currently hundreds of billions of dollars Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.57	Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	248_031 Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	39%
0.57	Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?(market prob: 36%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	248_027 Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos. Dave Blundin	Other	39%
0.57	Will Israel hold an election in 2027?(market prob: 43%)	manifold 2026-06-11	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.57	Coursera, Inc. (COUR) (CIK 0001651562)	edgar_8k 2026-06-11	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	Trane Technologies plc (TT) (CIK 0001466258)	edgar_8k 2026-06-10	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.57	MASIMO CORP (MASI) (CIK 0000937556)	edgar_8k 2026-06-10	238_036 Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp, operating on behalf of advertisers Emad Mostaque	Media/Ads	35%
0.57	Chubb Ltd (CB) (CIK 0000896159)	edgar_8k 2026-06-10	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.57	Noise-Aware Framework for Correcting Corrupted Labels	arxiv 2026-06-10	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.57	RCAP: Robust, Class-Aware, Probabilistic Dynamic Dataset Pruning	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.57	Fast-SDE: Efficient Single-Microphone Sound Source Distance Estimation in Reverberant Environments	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_001 Single operators utilizing low-cost hardware (e.g., $600 Mac Minis) will be able to replicate the output of entire enterprise teams, drastically reducing the friction of multi-million-dollar software development — leading to total dissolution of middle... Alex Finn	Labor/Jobs	48%
0.57	Will Maxx Crosby play for Indianapolis Colts next?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Will Gary Woodland win the 2026 TOUR Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.57	Will Jake Knapp win the 2026 TOUR Championship?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore	Semis/Products	71%
0.57	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-06-12	S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path	agi_general_capability	35%
0.57	Best Out-of-Context Quote at Manifest 2026	manifold 2026-06-12	238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	RICHTECH ROBOTICS INC. (RR) (CIK 0001963685)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	CMQ_051 Humanoid robots total addressable market by 2040: lower bound 1 billion units (exceeding cars on Earth); upper bound 10+ billion units. Brett Adcock / Elon Musk / Vinod Khosla	Robotics	37%
0.57	A Zero-shot Generalized Graph Anomaly Detection Framework via Node Reconstruction	arxiv 2026-06-10	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.57	BASENet: Band-Adapted Speech Enhancement Network with Cross-Band Attention	arxiv 2026-06-10	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Feature-preserving Latent-EnKF for Data Assimilation of Flows with Shocks	arxiv 2026-06-10	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.57	Chiral Long-Range Order in three Euclidean Lattice Gross-Neveu Models	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	How traversable is a traversable wormhole?	arxiv 2026-06-10	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.57	Mapping the Infrared Phase Space of Gravity to Finite Subregions	arxiv 2026-06-10	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5(market prob: 76%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Will Claude Fable 5 be re-enabled for Non-Americans before July 1st, 2026?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-06-13	246_032 Claude or successors will be granted limited form of AI personhood. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	When will Fable/Mythos access be restored to most foreign nationals?	manifold 2026-06-13	TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	—	10%
0.57	When will Fable/Mythos access be restored to Americans?	manifold 2026-06-13	COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	27%
0.57	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?	manifold 2026-06-13	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Claude 6 Release Date	manifold 2026-06-14	CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei	AI	28%
0.57	How many years between Starship 50 and Starship 500?	manifold 2026-06-14	242_005 Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day) Peter Diamandis	Space	49%
0.57	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.57	New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-06-14	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Will Memphis Depay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Will the number of U.S. Supreme Court Justices confirmed between June 15, 2026 and January 20, 2029 be at least one?(market prob: 88%)	manifold 2026-06-15	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.57	When will U.S. government's export control directive on Fable be lifted?	manifold 2026-06-14	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Will Madina Okot win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner	Energy	57%
0.57	Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.57	2026 Esports World Cup - Chess winner?	manifold 2026-06-16	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.57	TuneJury: An Open Metric for Improving Music Generation Preference Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-15	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	Federated Medical Image Segmentation under Real-World Label Noise: A Benchmark Suite for Noisy Label Learning Method Selection	arxiv 2026-06-15	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Propagating Structural Guidance: Synthesizing Fluorescein Angiography from Fundus Images and Sparse OCT Scans	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Entity Labels Are Not Entity Signals: A Framework for Observable Relevance in Document Re-Ranking	arxiv 2026-06-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.57	The Art of Mixology: Mixup-based Obfuscation for Privacy-Preserving Split Learning in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_059 Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds. Alex Finn	AI	62%
0.57	AthDGC: An Open Diachronic Greek Treebank with Indo-European Parallels	arxiv 2026-06-13	IND_005 Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~... Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	33%
0.57	Decoupled Object-Centric Video Understanding for Generating Robotic Manipulation Commands	arxiv 2026-06-15	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.57	The Optimal Rate Function in Covariant Quantum State Tomography	arxiv 2026-06-15	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.57	Quantum gravity and spectral running cutoff	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.57	Analytic results for slow-roll curved-space inflation and exponential potentials	arxiv 2026-06-15	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Multi-band cross-correlation dark sirens: Enhancing cosmological parameter and gravitational-wave bias constraints	arxiv 2026-06-14	COD_SPC_005 NASA Dragonfly launches on Falcon Heavy in the July 2028 window Codex Research Pack	Space	33%
0.57	Entanglement islands of 2D charged scalar-hairy black holes on the brane	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	FDA ANDA212374: EMPAGLIFLOZIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (EMPAGLIFLOZIN, METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LIMITED	fda 2026-06-11	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.57	FDA ANDA212374: EMPAGLIFLOZIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (EMPAGLIFLOZIN, METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LIMITED	fda 2026-06-11	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	Will Pedri be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	First scorer winning rate World Cup 2026	manifold 2026-06-17	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Geometrical fairness in graph neural networks	arxiv 2026-06-16	AI_005 Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics olympiads while simultaneously failing rudimentary arithmetic and spatial logic; true AGI requires smoothing these jagged edges via continual learning, d... Demis Hassabis	AI	83%
0.57	Geometrical fairness in graph neural networks	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.57	Holographic Schwinger-Keldysh effective action for heavy quarks in confinement and deconfinement phases	arxiv 2026-06-16	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Single-valued polylogarithms for higher genera	arxiv 2026-06-16	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.57	Single-valued polylogarithms for higher genera	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.57	Shadow, Emission, and Strong-Field Lensing of Dilatonic Black Holes	arxiv 2026-06-15	242_002 Long-term petawatt compute will come only from lunar mass drivers Peter Diamandis	Space	37%
0.57	Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	Will Donald Trump Tweet within the next 7 days?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-06-18	SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk	AI/AGI	19%
0.57	Will factory farming ever be de facto banned and enforced across the contiguous United States?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-06-16	241_059 Government will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problems Peter Diamandis	Energy	54%
0.57	NextDecade Corp (NEXT) (CIK 0001612720)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	SEM_011 Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. Jensen Huang	Capital Markets	86%
0.57	Contextualizing Biological Language Models across Modalities via Logit-Space Contrastive Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-17	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	RegMix-D: Dynamic Data Mixing via Proxy Training Trajectories	arxiv 2026-06-17	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.57	Transient Bias for CP Domain Wall Decay and Dark Matter	arxiv 2026-06-17	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Data-Driven Discovery of a Simple Phantom-Crossing Dark Energy Parametrization	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 2.1.4	github_release 2026-06-11	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.57	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 2.1.3	github_release 2026-05-26	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.57	facebookresearch/mtm Datasets-v1	github_release 2023-04-27	AUT_021 Defining software movement of 2026: startups building autonomous platforms specifically designed to clean/structure/continuously validate multimodal data — unstructured corporate sludge (PDFs, logs, videos, emails) causes autonomous agentic workflows t... Marc Andreessen	AI	57%
0.57	Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	SIMBA: ABidirectional Retrieval Forward Simulation Framework for Modeling FY-4A GIIRS Hyperspectral Infrared Radiances Toward NWP Applications	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.57	PrefSQA: Pairwise Preference Prediction for Speech Quality Assessment and the Critical Role of High Quality Datasets	arxiv 2026-06-17	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Towards Modality-imbalanced Federated Graph Learning: A Data Synthesis-based Approach	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	PaAno+: Multiscale Encoding and Cross-Variable Attention for Time Series Anomaly Detection	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.57	Multimodal Concept Bottleneck Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.57	Flow Map Denoisers: Traversing the Distortion-Perception Plane for Inverse Problems	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.57	CzechDocs: A Multiway Parallel Dataset of Formatted Documents for Minority Languages in Czechia	arxiv 2026-06-18	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.57	The magic of the gravitational vacuum	arxiv 2026-06-18	234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.57	Higher-loop wormhole length in sine-dilaton gravity from DSSYK Krylov complexity	arxiv 2026-06-18	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	FDA NDA016673: DEXTROSE 5% IN PLASTIC CONTAINER (DEXTROSE) — BAXTER HLTHCARE	fda 2026-06-11	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.57	Will San Francisco Giants win the 2026 National League Championship Series?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-19	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	ROB_008 Humanoid robotics market will reach $5 trillion by 2050 (excluding massive secondary supply chains for repair/maintenance/support). Nearly 1 billion humanoid robots operating globally by 2050, 90% used for industrial/commercial purposes vs domestic — m... Morgan Stanley	Robotics	37%
0.57	Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?	manifold 2026-06-20	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.57	2026 FIFA World Cup: Will there be at least one 4–0 knockout match AND fewer than 8 total 3–0 knockout matches?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-06-19	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.57	France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	will x have a significant other by the end of ross(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-06-21	238_006 Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) Emad Mostaque	Labor/Jobs	40%
0.57	will x have a significant other by the end of ross(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-06-21	246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.57	Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Season(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	233_007 In 2026, Alpha will launch new schools beyond the flagship model based on the Timeback platform. Joe Liemandt	Education	51%
0.57	U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2025-11-04	229_026 By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months. Brett Adcock	Robotics	38%
0.57	Will USDA APHIS confirm an African Swine Fever (ASF) case in any animal on US soil in 2026(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-06-22	242_039 NASA will imminently find >90% probability evidence of microbial life on Mars Jared Isaacman (NASA administrator)	Space	46%
0.57	What will be the total number of FIFA world cup markets created on Manifold by July 15?	manifold 2026-06-21	CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley	Macro/Economy	67%
0.57	LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-08	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	246_014 Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	41%
0.57	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan	Macro/Economy	72%
0.57	Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.57	Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx(market prob: 74%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	246_054 Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard	Media/Ads	50%
0.57	Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.57	Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.57	Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Will Austria win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	LoL: Francesinhas vs ZeroZone Gaming (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Division One (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	243_001 Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.57	Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Trump announce end of military operations against Iran by…? [Polymarket]	manifold 2026-04-28	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.57	Will ""Thinkhaven"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-27	238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.57	Will the winner of the 2026 Kentucky Derby finish in under 2:02.00?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-04-26	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.57	Utah vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Valorant: QoR vs FlyQuest (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	242_019 EVTOL autonomy will come within ~2 years after piloted version Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	50%
0.57		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.57	moelis mc q1 2026 earnings 021154258.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	INF_011 Mega-cap hyperscalers will commit over $1 trillion of capital expenditures in the 2025-2026 period alone, with roughly half financed via debt — intertwining AI buildout risk with global credit markets. Morgan Stanley	Macro/Economy	92%
0.57	article 53083fef 8cdc 5e58 8fc2 580d537ba993.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.57	article 3ba70d79 6952 58b3 b9c5 bc743d7ed167.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.57	unfortunately we will not be talking about safety details of any specific product	gdelt 2026-04-30	246_055 We WILL figure out AI safety/regulation but only after something really bad happens. Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.57	microsoft delivers a promising quarter but cant shake software fears.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.57		gdelt 2026-04-30	240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.57	ashley st clair accuses dc draino faking jewish identity 1794393	gdelt 2026-04-30	230_016 Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	55%
0.57	article 3b210a08 e0a6 5323 b6f9 965a0448b845.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.57	red rock rrr q1 2026 234132934.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	article 4b6c5757 7dbb 5e32 a7a2 5595d0e608e6.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	50%
0.57	LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn	Crypto	43%
0.57	Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.57	Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	Spread: Celtics (-6.5)(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	USA vs Iran in World Cup 2026?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-04-30	238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Will "Considerations around career costs of politic..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-27	SEM_037 For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, faster, and cheaper by next year (2026-2027). Emad Mostaque	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.57	Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Lightning vs. Canadiens(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs(market prob: 65%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Cadillac Championship?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-16	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2025-07-16	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Which Party will win the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election?	manifold 2026-05-01	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	Will a Chinese airline announce a purchase of at least 25 Boeing aircraft before June?(market prob: 54%)	manifold 2026-04-30	SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock	Robotics	42%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	Magic vs. Pistons(market prob: 27%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Flyers vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Canadiens vs. Lightning (market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-04-17	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5)(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-04-05	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	Will Spirit Airlines complete shutdown of operations by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 95%)	manifold 2026-05-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	How many members will the UK Liberal Democrats have at the start of 2029?	manifold 2026-05-02	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Will Iran's food stockpile run out before Aug 2, 2026?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-02	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.57	Will the face of Jose Luis Ricon be minted on a physical coin by 2222(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-01	231_040 Ireland's UBI art scheme will NOT become a template for the future peacetime work creation. Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	38%
0.57	Valorant: LOUD vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	234_004 Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2025-07-16	231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.57	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Flyers vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Who will win the 2026 Super Rapid & Blitz Poland (GCT 1st event)?	manifold 2026-05-04	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will Hindalco Industries's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 1.4 million tonnes?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-04	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	Sam Altman is imprisoned for a crime before 2030(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-04	SPC_023 Altman's specific chronological roadmap: 2030 'wildly abundant' intelligence + energy (unlocked via AI + Helion fusion 2028) → 2034 humanity mathematically cracks high-energy physics → 2035 space colonization begins in earnest → 2036 commercial brain-c... Sam Altman	AI	18%
0.57	Will May 2026 be Denver snowiest month of the entire 2025 to 2026 winter season(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-04	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.57	LoL: BIG vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO3) - Prime League 1st Division Group A(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	238_033 Meta will someday be acquired by an AI company (largest-company-killer scenario) Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	35%
0.57	Spread: Pistons (-2.5)(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs R2 Esports Club (BO3) - CCT South America Series #1 Group Stage(market prob: 69%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	76ers vs. Knicks(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	LoL: mCon esports vs The Bandits (BO3) - Road Of Legends Regular Season(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Counter-Strike: NeverPlay vs Pitstop crew (BO3) - Exort Series Contenders Stage(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	LITHIUM AMERICAS CORP. (LAC) (CIK 0001966983)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	CENTRUS ENERGY CORP (LEU) (CIK 0001065059)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.57	MERCURY GENERAL CORP (MCY) (CIK 0000064996)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.57	Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) (CIK 0001375365)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.57	DAVITA INC. (DVA) (CIK 0000927066)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	FDA ANDA202426: SITAGLIPTIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE) — APOTEX	fda 2026-04-30	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA ANDA078257: ONDANSETRON HYDROCHLORIDE (ONDANSETRON HYDROCHLORIDE) — ONESOURCE SPECIALTY	fda 2026-04-15	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA NDA217388: WAINUA (AUTOINJECTOR) (EPLONTERSEN SODIUM) — ASTRAZENECA AB	fda 2026-04-15	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.57	FDA BLA125504: COSENTYX (SECUKINUMAB) — NOVARTIS PHARMS CORP	fda 2026-04-17	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	FDA BLA125514: KEYTRUDA (PEMBROLIZUMAB) — MERCK SHARP DOHME	fda 2026-06-12	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	huggingface/transformers v5.6.2	github_release 2026-04-23	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.57	meta-llama/llama-models v0.2.0	github_release 2025-04-05	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.57	meta-llama/llama-api-typescript v0.2.0	github_release 2025-08-27	CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic	AI	80%
0.57	meta-llama/llama-api-typescript v0.1.3	github_release 2025-08-13	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.57	pytorch/pytorch v2.3.1	github_release 2024-06-05	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.57	pytorch/pytorch v2.3.1	github_release 2024-06-05	CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic	AI	80%
0.57	1x-technologies/halodi-unity-package-creator 0.2.3	github_release 2020-05-25	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.57	Spread: Spurs (-10.5)(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Isurus vs R2 Esports Club - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.57	Will there be an earthquake of at least 5.5 Magnitude on Cinco de Mayo 2027? (May 5)(market prob: 73%)	manifold 2026-05-05	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.57	Enhancing Self-Supervised Talking Head Forgery Detection via a Training-Free Dual-System Framework	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Enhancing Self-Supervised Talking Head Forgery Detection via a Training-Free Dual-System Framework	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.57	Copula-Based Endogeneity Correction for Doubly Robust Estimation of Treatment Effect	arxiv 2026-05-05	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	SCGNN: Semantic Consistency enhanced Graph Neural Network Guided by Granular-ball Computing	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	Graph Neural Networks in the Wilson Loop Representation of Abelian Lattice Gauge Theories	arxiv 2026-05-05	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression for Robust Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Urban Air Pollution	arxiv 2026-05-05	INF_014 Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. Morgan Stanley	Energy	42%
0.57	Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression for Robust Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Urban Air Pollution	arxiv 2026-05-05	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.57	Learning Discriminative Signed Distance Functions from Multi-scale Level-of-detail Features for 3D Anomaly Detection	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.57	Attribution-Guided Masking for Robust Cross-Domain Sentiment Classification	arxiv 2026-05-04	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.57	Revisiting Semantic Role Labeling: Efficient Structured Inference with Dependency-Informed Analysis	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.57	QCD sum rules: Borel parameter vs. Euclidean time	arxiv 2026-05-05	231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.57	Stable Magnetic Lorentz-Violating Vacua in Gauge-Invariant Nonlinear Electrodynamics	arxiv 2026-05-05	235_040 Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	26%
0.57	Albertian Channel Memory in Black-Hole Evaporation	arxiv 2026-05-04	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.57	FDA ANDA210456: MULTIPLE VITAMINS INJECTION PEDIATRIC (PHARMACY BULK PACKAGE) (ASCORBIC ACID) — APOTEX	fda 2026-04-21	237_023 Baby AGI agents will need and develop an 'immune system' for prompt injection and cybersecurity threats in real time. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.57	FDA ANDA090607: LAMOTRIGINE (LAMOTRIGINE) — ALEMBIC PHARMS LTD	fda 2026-04-13	248_030 FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.57	FDA NDA215833: PLUVICTO (LUTETIUM LU-177 VIPIVOTIDE TETRAXETAN) — NOVARTIS	fda 2026-04-07	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.57	FDA NDA020941: ABREVA (DOCOSANOL) — HALEON US HOLDINGS	fda 2026-04-14	TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event	—	15%
0.57	FDA ANDA216327: DILTIAZEM HYDROCHLORIDE (DILTIAZEM HYDROCHLORIDE) — SCIEGEN PHARMS	fda 2026-04-10	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.57	FDA ANDA205806: BUPRENORPHINE HYDROCHLORIDE AND NALOXONE HYDROCHLORIDE (BUPRENORPHINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — DR REDDYS LABS SA	fda 2026-04-15	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	Spread: Pistons (-3.5)(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	LoL: PCIFIC vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - TCL Regular Season(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.57	Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-14	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Altar of Champions winner? (Grubby's WC3 streamer invitational)	manifold 2026-05-07	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.57	Self-Prompting Small Language Models for Privacy-Sensitive Clinical Information Extraction	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.57	Self-Prompting Small Language Models for Privacy-Sensitive Clinical Information Extraction	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.57	FDA ANDA207974: FINGOLIMOD HYDROCHLORIDE (FINGOLIMOD HYDROCHLORIDE) — ALEMBIC	fda 2026-04-24	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA ANDA210164: POMALIDOMIDE (POMALIDOMIDE) — APOTEX	fda 2026-04-27	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA NDA202667: COSOPT PF (DORZOLAMIDE HYDROCHLORIDE) — THEA PHARMA	fda 2026-04-09	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.1.7-rc1	github_release 2021-01-25	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.57	facebookresearch/balance 0.1.0	github_release 2022-11-21	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.57	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.33.post2	github_release 2025-12-03	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage(market prob: 89%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage(market prob: 89%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn	Consumer	77%
0.57	Towards Metric-Faithful Neural Graph Matching	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	PianoCoRe: Combined and Refined Piano MIDI Dataset	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.57	SparseForge: Efficient Semi-Structured LLM Sparsification via Annealing of Hessian-Guided Soft-Mask	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.57	A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.57	BoostLLM: Boosting-inspired LLM Fine-tuning for Few-shot Tabular Classification	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%