Validations Queue
80,311 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 134 of 150, 500 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
Pending (total)
80,311
Reviewed
13
Filtered
74,586
page 134 / 150
Showing on page
500
Filters
URL params control source + min-similarity threshold
Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold
Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
Source0 selected · 0 visible
Bulk action
| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-08 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-09 | 240_058 OpenAI throttling back on $1.6T Stargate plans Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-07 | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | 15% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-07 | 245_031 99% of synthetic biology focus will remain on human healthcare; similar tech applies more broadly Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 41% | ||
| 0.57 | Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 TOUR Championship?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-16 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 233_007 In 2026, Alpha will launch new schools beyond the flagship model based on the Timeback platform. Joe Liemandt | Education | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei | AI | 56% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn | AI/Compute | 59% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | ROB_004 By approximately 2027-2028, collaborative AI programs will essentially 'solve physics' — unifying general relativity and quantum mechanics into a new mathematical framework; the core mission of DeepMind is to 'first solve AI, then use AI to solve every... Demis Hassabis | AI | 8% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | 239_032 Progress in AI will continue as series of overlapping S-curves Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Jelena Ostapenko be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Spurs (-5.5)(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?(market prob: 95%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 243_025 Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | |
| 0.57 | Will I be the pirate king(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | 239_026 Future will be very entertaining Elon Musk | Other | 55% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-11 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-11 | CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 76% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-11 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-11 | COD_AI_001 Vera Rubin becomes commercially available across major cloud and OEM partners by H2 2026 Codex Research Pack | Technology | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-11 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-11 | 240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley | Energy | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-11 | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 61% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-10 | CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 76% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-10 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-10 | 240_002 Amazon or Anthropic will hit a trillion in revenue within a calendar year faster than NVIDIA Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn | AI/Compute | 59% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | 231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin | AI/Architecture | 65% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 26% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | 240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | 242_002 Long-term petawatt compute will come only from lunar mass drivers Peter Diamandis | Space | 37% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Alec Pierce be traded?(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-02-16 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | Will Germán Berterame win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-18 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.57 | Will Albert Rusnák win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-18 | S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) | mars_uncrewed_landing | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5(market prob: 75%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 22%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-12 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-12 | 240_002 Amazon or Anthropic will hit a trillion in revenue within a calendar year faster than NVIDIA Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-12 | 240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley | Energy | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-11 | INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-11 | 243_030 Multimodal delivery network will emerge: drones, sidewalk robots, bike-lane robots Dara Khosrowshahi | Robotics | 31% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-11 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-11 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-11 | SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin | AI/Architecture | 65% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-11 | AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price | Education | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-11 | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 23% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | 247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA215552: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — YAOPHARMA CO LTD | fda 2026-06-09 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.57 | github_release 2018-03-01 | 229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 230_037 Handmade/human art will be astronomically more valuable in the future. Dave Blundin | Consumer | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | FDA NDA209552: ARGATROBAN IN SODIUM CHLORIDE (ARGATROBAN) — EUGIA PHARMA SPECLTS | fda 2026-06-10 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs(market prob: 85%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 62% | |
| 0.57 | Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-14 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.57 | Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-15 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | github_release 2025-11-28 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.57 | New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?(market prob: 83%) | polymarket 2025-12-30 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang | AI/Compute | 92% | |
| 0.57 | Does Saudi Arabia normalize with Israel before December 31 2028?(market prob: 40%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-15 | AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price | Education | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-15 | AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price | Education | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-15 | AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy | AI | 87% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-15 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-14 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-14 | FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA209685: ATOVAQUONE (ATOVAQUONE) — GLENMARK SPECLT | fda 2026-06-08 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA209685: ATOVAQUONE (ATOVAQUONE) — GLENMARK SPECLT | fda 2026-06-08 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Brandon Woodruff win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-18 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-06-16 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | |
| 0.57 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-17 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.57 | Will silver hit $75/oz this week by close of market on Friday?(market prob: 3%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-16 | CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 29% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-16 | INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis | Biotech/Longevity | 38% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-15 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-16 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-16 | 247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-16 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-16 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-15 | INF_053 Valar Atomics "Nuclear Gigasite" model — clustering hundreds of identical High-Temperature Gas Reactors (HTGR) on a single remote heavily-regulated site — will emerge as the dominant deployment architecture for advanced fission, superseding scattered S... Isaiah Taylor | Energy | 28% | ||
| 0.57 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.57 | San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.57 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? (market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Energy | 39% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-18 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-18 | CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 76% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-17 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-17 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-17 | 247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-17 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-17 | AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei | AI | 56% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-17 | FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | github_release 2026-06-11 | 231_048 Thousands of experiments from permissionless disruptive innovation will completely change the game. Salim Ismail | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-12 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-10 | COD_ROB_001 Figure sustains a one-robot-per-hour Figure 03 production run-rate for at least 30 consecutive days by Q4 2026 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 24% | ||
| 0.57 | Do you like 62% odds?(market prob: 62%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 242_028 AI could automate 25% of US work hours Goldman Sachs | Labor/Jobs | 39% | |
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-18 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-18 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-17 | CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil | AI | 63% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-18 | 238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-18 | 234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA212143: FOSAPREPITANT DIMEGLUMINE (FOSAPREPITANT DIMEGLUMINE) — CHIA TAI TIANQING | fda 2026-06-10 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA075182: ESTRADIOL (ESTRADIOL) — MYLAN TECHNOLOGIES | fda 2026-06-08 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.57 | San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-19 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-19 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.57 | New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies(market prob: 37%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Austria?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will France win the world cup(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-06-20 | 234_010 Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon Dave Blundin | Defense | 50% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-20 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-20 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-20 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-20 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA219413: ANDA219413 ((unspecified)) — TEVA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. | fda 2026-06-05 | 248_030 FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA205294: DORZOLAMIDE HYDROCHLORIDE (DORZOLAMIDE HYDROCHLORIDE) — FDC LTD | fda 2026-06-10 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-14 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-15 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-21 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 229_026 By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 38% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 233_011 Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption. Joe Liemandt | Education | 37% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-21 | SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba | AI/Hardware | 71% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-21 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-21 | 234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.57 | Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-19 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-21 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-22 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | Spread: Pistons (-10.5)(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-03-23 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Pistons (-9.5)(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.56 | Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Iran leadership change by May 31?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-24 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.56 | Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.56 | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-01 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.56 | Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | CMQ_022 AGI will arrive within a decade (by 2030) — driven primarily by massive raw compute deployment and neural-network scaling. Elon Musk | AI | 34% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I do something interesting this week according to me(market prob: 48%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 244_024 Hopes society will adjust as work is augmented and new work shows up Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Will the 2026 Kentucky Derby have a close finish?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-26 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 15% | ||
| 0.56 | LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | SPC_023 Altman's specific chronological roadmap: 2030 'wildly abundant' intelligence + energy (unlocked via AI + Helion fusion 2028) → 2034 humanity mathematically cracks high-energy physics → 2035 space colonization begins in earnest → 2036 commercial brain-c... Sam Altman | AI | 18% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 238_020 Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 61% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-23 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 242_038 Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starship Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | LoL: Fnatic vs Solary - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-04-30 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.56 | Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 246_014 Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-29 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 246_002 SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Pistons (-4.5)(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 239_018 Universal High Income will be implemented Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-01 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.56 | Abidjan 2: Gauthier Onclin vs Eliakim Coulibaly(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | Flyers vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Lakers vs. Thunder(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.56 | Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Abidjan 2: Gauthier Onclin vs Michael Mmoh(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 24% | |
| 0.56 | Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2025-07-16 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.56 | Game Handicap: KRX (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5)(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.56 | Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I place last in Masters Season 37?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 229_002 Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 56% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-01 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 71% | ||
| 0.56 | Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | 76ers vs. Knicks(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 214.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: NeverPlay vs Pitstop crew - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?(market prob: 81%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-05 | SEM_040 Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10x to 30x in performance. Michael Saylor | Finance/Crypto | 48% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-05 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA NDA011525: IC-GREEN (INDOCYANINE GREEN) — RENEW PHARMS | fda 2026-04-22 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA209956: POMALIDOMIDE (POMALIDOMIDE) — TEVA PHARMS USA | fda 2026-04-27 | 248_029 Regime change at the FDA is not beyond the realm of reason. Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 35% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA210672: MULTIPLE VITAMINS INJECTION ADULT (ALPHA-TOCOPHEROL ACETATE) — APOTEX | fda 2026-04-09 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA218740: CETRORELIX ACETATE (CETRORELIX ACETATE) — HUMANWELL | fda 2026-04-29 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA077686: DILTIAZEM HYDROCHLORIDE (DILTIAZEM HYDROCHLORIDE) — ACTAVIS LABS FL INC | fda 2026-04-09 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA090517: VALPROIC ACID (VALPROIC ACID) — QUAGEN | fda 2026-04-17 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA220313: GLYCEROL PHENYLBUTYRATE (GLYCEROL PHENYLBUTYRATE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA | fda 2026-04-15 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.56 | github_release 2025-08-13 | 237_018 We are seeing a Cambrian explosion of OpenClaw variants (PicoClaw, IronClaw, NanoClaw, Nanobot, etc.) with many more to come. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | github_release 2024-06-28 | CMQ_025 The entire global installed base of data centers must be ripped out and replaced — legacy DCs unfit for AI factory workloads. Jensen Huang | AI/Compute | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | github_release 2024-06-28 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | ||
| 0.56 | github_release 2023-12-15 | 229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 69% | ||
| 0.56 | github_release 2023-12-15 | 240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | github_release 2020-11-10 | 241_013 Agents from incompatible vendors combined will produce unpredictable effects Eric Schmidt | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | github_release 2023-08-29 | 241_013 Agents from incompatible vendors combined will produce unpredictable effects Eric Schmidt | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | github_release 2020-06-12 | 247_060 Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana(market prob: 20%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | |
| 0.56 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-04-17 | FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Energy | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I do something interesting this week according to me(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 244_024 Hopes society will adjust as work is augmented and new work shows up Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Will this market appear on a mug?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I solve a TSTST problem with MMP?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | |
| 0.56 | Will abhishaike mahajan ever win the nobel prize?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 234_007 Kevin Weil aims for next 100 Nobel Prizes to be issued in partnership with AI Kevin Weil | AI | 38% | |
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | 235_036 AI-generated images will eliminate commercial photography, illustrators and stock image platforms. Peter Diamandis | Media/Ads | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded) | Semis | 65% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | 235_040 Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 26% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | 247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba | AI/Hardware | 71% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA211491: DAPAGLIFLOZIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — SUN PHARM | fda 2026-05-21 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA218417: DEXTROMETHORPHAN POLISTIREX (DEXTROMETHORPHAN POLISTIREX) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD | fda 2026-04-15 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA090263: LEVETIRACETAM (LEVETIRACETAM) — CHARTWELL MOLECULAR | fda 2026-04-08 | CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis | AI | 60% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA205254: ZOLEDRONIC ACID (ZOLEDRONIC ACID) — MYLAN LABS LTD | fda 2026-04-15 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA211156: DAPAGLIFLOZIN (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — INVENTIA | fda 2026-05-28 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA211506: DAPAGLIFLOZIN (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — MACLEODS PHARMS LTD | fda 2026-04-06 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA091291: LEVETIRACETAM (LEVETIRACETAM) — CHARTWELL RX | fda 2026-04-09 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.56 | FDA BLA761044: STELARA (USTEKINUMAB) — JANSSEN BIOTECH | fda 2026-04-15 | 232_036 AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE. Ben Horowitz | Biotech/Longevity | 46% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA208055: LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE (LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — TORRENT | fda 2026-04-13 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.56 | FDA NDA021977: VYVANSE (LISDEXAMFETAMINE DIMESYLATE) — TAKEDA PHARMS USA | fda 2026-04-23 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA205772: CALCIPOTRIENE (CALCIPOTRIENE) — GLENMARK SPECLT | fda 2026-04-17 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA211579: DAPAGLIFLOZIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — LUPIN | fda 2026-04-06 | 245_009 Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 45% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA208103: DEXMEDETOMIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE (DEXMEDETOMIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — BAXTER HLTHCARE CORP | fda 2026-04-15 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | |
| 0.56 | Knicks vs. 76ers(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: McCartney Kessler vs Iva Jovic(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis | AI | 71% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Orbit Anonymo vs Lodis (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 247_027 Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA206387: ALENDRONATE SODIUM (ALENDRONATE SODIUM) — IPCA LABS LTD | fda 2026-04-15 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA091541: LOSARTAN POTASSIUM (LOSARTAN POTASSIUM) — MICRO LABS | fda 2026-04-10 | 245_009 Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 45% | |
| 0.56 | FDA BLA761340: EPYSQLI (ECULIZUMAB-AAGH) — SAMSUNG BIOEPIS CO LTD | fda 2026-04-28 | 247_029 OpenAI Foundation's cure for Alzheimer's could spawn a trillion-dollar pharma company Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 38% | |
| 0.56 | github_release 2025-11-12 | 238_024 AI token speed will jump from ~50 tokens/sec to ~1,000 tokens/sec (Cerebras) Emad Mostaque | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.56 | github_release 2025-12-03 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | github_release 2025-12-03 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Simona Waltert vs Hailey Baptiste(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Pistons vs. Cavaliers(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Maria Sakkari vs Elena Rybakina(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-06 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | ||
| 0.56 | test-a(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | |
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA074544: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — EPIC PHARMA LLC | fda 2026-05-05 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA074544: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — EPIC PHARMA LLC | fda 2026-05-05 | 245_027 Colossal DNA synthesis delivery will reach 20x the largest prior delivery by end of 2026 Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 41% | |
| 0.56 | FDA BLA761184: NGENLA (SOMATROGON-GHLA) — PFIZER IRELAND PHARMACEUTICALS | fda 2026-04-29 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 42% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-03-24 | 246_011 Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. Dave Blundin | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 240_056 Anthropic enterprise market share to continue growing (went from 40% to 73% in 3 months) Peter Diamandis | AI | 54% | |
| 0.56 | Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 242_008 Dyson sphere will come before any fusion reactor is licensed Dave Blundin | Energy | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: NRG vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: Sinners vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.56 | Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Passion UA (+1.5)(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 238_024 AI token speed will jump from ~50 tokens/sec to ~1,000 tokens/sec (Cerebras) Emad Mostaque | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Passion UA (+1.5)(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-11 | SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail | Labor/Jobs | 37% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-11 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-11 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-11 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.56 | Sabres vs. Canadiens(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5)(market prob: 78%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-12 | COD_BIO_005 Colossal adds at least one more de-extinction species to active embryo-transfer pipeline by end 2028 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-12 | SEM_016 Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chain resilience. David Friedberg | Semis/Geopolitics | 24% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-12 | SEM_018 SMIC (China) projected at only 100,000 wafers/month of advanced-process capacity by 2026 — severe constraint forcing algorithmic bypasses. SMIC (All-In Podcast analysis) | Semis | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-12 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-12 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA072733: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — HIKMA | fda 2026-05-05 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 24% | |
| 0.56 | FDA NDA019726: ZOLADEX (GOSERELIN ACETATE) — TERSERA | fda 2026-05-06 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.56 | FDA BLA761342: TALVEY (TALQUETAMAB-TGVS) — JANSSEN BIOTECH | fda 2026-05-06 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA078982: LAMOTRIGINE (LAMOTRIGINE) — GRANULES | fda 2026-04-30 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.56 | github_release 2023-05-22 | 241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.56 | github_release 2023-02-10 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | github_release 2025-01-31 | AI_017 NVIDIA will make Agentic AI the primary demand vector via two specialized products: the 'NemoClaw' developer toolkit for building/orchestrating autonomous agents, and the 'Vera CPU rack' hardware platform explicitly designed to host, deploy, and execut... Jensen Huang | Semis | 75% | ||
| 0.56 | Spurs vs. Timberwolves(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Pistons (-4.5)(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs Sinners (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.56 | Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-13 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-12 | 229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-12 | AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-12 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA071198: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — BARR | fda 2026-05-05 | CMQ_035 HBM4 16-layer stack design (required for Vera Rubin) places unprecedented yield and capacity strain on global memory fabrication facilities. Jensen Huang / Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.56 | Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Will there be a red card in the 2026 UEFA Champions League final?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-14 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-14 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-13 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-13 | 238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-13 | AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley | AI | 57% | ||
| 0.56 | github_release 2025-06-28 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | ||
| 0.56 | github_release 2025-05-23 | 234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: paiN vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 248_031 Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.56 | Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 233_011 Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption. Joe Liemandt | Education | 37% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-15 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-14 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-14 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA BLA761285: WEZLANA (USTEKINUMAB-AUUB) — AMGEN INC | fda 2026-05-12 | 232_036 AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE. Ben Horowitz | Biotech/Longevity | 46% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA218364: LEVETIRACETAM IN SODIUM CHLORIDE (LEVETIRACETAM) — MYLAN LABS LTD | fda 2026-05-08 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA211135: RIOCIGUAT (RIOCIGUAT) — MSN | fda 2026-05-08 | CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis | AI | 60% | |
| 0.56 | FDA NDA219531: SDAMLO (AMLODIPINE BESYLATE) — BRILLIAN PHARMA | fda 2026-05-08 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.56 | FDA BLA761381: OPDIVO QVANTIG (NIVOLUMAB) — BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB | fda 2026-05-12 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 71% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA220717: ZOLPIDEM TARTRATE (ZOLPIDEM TARTRATE) — UMEDICA LABS PVT | fda 2026-05-12 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO3) - LCS Regular Season(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-16 | 236_040 CEO will be last to go in AI wave of automation Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-16 | 247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Gauff vs. Svitolina: Match O/U 21.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | AI_002 Models matching the collective cognitive capacity of 'a country of geniuses in a datacenter' — acting simultaneously across all domains — could arrive as early as 2026 or 2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 16% | |
| 0.56 | Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Will Slay the Spire 2 release Act 4 before a new alternate act?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.56 | Will Slay the Spire 2 release Act 4 before a new alternate act?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-16 | CMQ_018 By 2027-2028, the strategic value of superintelligence + impossible trillion-dollar infrastructure cost will trigger government consolidation of AGI development — 'The Project'. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Geopolitics | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 229_019 Humanoids will dominate the plurality of all robots; other form factors will be niche. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 30% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA NDA210308: YONSA (ABIRATERONE ACETATE) — SUN PHARM | fda 2026-05-13 | 232_036 AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE. Ben Horowitz | Biotech/Longevity | 46% | |
| 0.56 | FDA NDA021731: ELIGARD KIT (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — TOLMAR | fda 2026-05-06 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA216537: CARBIDOPA AND LEVODOPA (CARBIDOPA) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD | fda 2026-05-08 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.56 | github_release 2021-04-28 | AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy | AI | 90% | ||
| 0.56 | github_release 2020-09-20 | 237_002 We will see a lot of evolution and many OpenClaw variants emerging very quickly as an early domain being developed. Peter Diamandis | AI | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | github_release 2020-09-15 | 248_037 State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Sentinels vs Dignitas - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.56 | Geneva Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Casper Ruud(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 62% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-07 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-07 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | LoL: Sentinels vs Dignitas - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.56 | Canadiens vs. Sabres(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-17 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.56 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.56 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?(market prob: 64%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Geneva Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Raphael Collignon(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Estral Esports vs RED Academy - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2025-07-11 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the 2026 Fifa World Cup winner, draw or lose in the group stage?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-01-05 | 247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA219750: L-GLUTAMINE (L-GLUTAMINE) — STIRA | fda 2026-05-14 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | |
| 0.56 | Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima(market prob: 87%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | |
| 0.56 | US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 246_014 Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis | AI | 71% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-30 | CMQ_053 Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-labor shortages in automotive manufacturing. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Florida PALM go live as scheduled on January 11, 2027?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 229_002 Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 56% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-28 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-27 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 231_054 Uncertain whether people will have any purpose at all a year from today. Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-29 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-29 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-29 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-29 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded) | Semis | 65% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | 229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley | AI/Compute | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn | Consumer | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | INF_026 'Software 3.0' LLM infrastructure will operate like public utilities — requiring massive upfront capex (training compute, specialized hardware), specialized networking protocols for synchrony across hundreds of thousands of GPUs, and flawless uninterru... Andrej Karpathy | AI | 70% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | 234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | 248_037 State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | 248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | 247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA214733: VENETOCLAX (VENETOCLAX) — DR REDDYS | fda 2026-05-15 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | |
| 0.56 | Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Knicks vs. Spurs(market prob: 37%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Jong (+2.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-04-14 | 238_059 Era of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as XPRIZE takes hold Salim Ismail | Macro/Economy | 42% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.56 | Rcb vs gt who is win(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-31 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-31 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | ||
| 0.56 | Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi(market prob: 81%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 30% | |
| 0.56 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | SEM_003 Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy/Compute | 86% | |
| 0.56 | FDA NDA209817: NUZYRA (OMADACYCLINE TOSYLATE) — PARATEK PHARMS | fda 2026-05-13 | INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis | Biotech/Longevity | 38% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA208028: LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE (LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — INVAGEN PHARMS | fda 2026-05-15 | INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis | Biotech/Longevity | 38% | |
| 0.56 | FDA NDA209816: NUZYRA (OMADACYCLINE TOSYLATE) — PARATEK PHARMS | fda 2026-05-13 | INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis | Biotech/Longevity | 38% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA217552: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — ALEMBIC | fda 2026-05-27 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | |
| 0.56 | github_release 2020-06-22 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.56 | Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-05-20 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% |