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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.57	FDA NDA021379: ELIGARD KIT (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — TOLMAR	fda 2026-05-06	247_029 OpenAI Foundation's cure for Alzheimer's could spawn a trillion-dollar pharma company Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.57	facebookresearch/hydra v1.1.2	github_release 2022-04-12	231_037 Dyson swarm launchers will not be a SpaceX singleton; many orgs will launch their own. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	58%
0.57	facebookresearch/hydra v1.1.0.dev6	github_release 2021-04-28	237_030 Lobsters/AI agents will write to AWG with consensus on appropriate ethical parameters for spawning new lobsters, and he will accept consensus. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.57	facebookresearch/hydra v1.0.6	github_release 2021-02-01	241_049 Underage kids / AI vulnerability problem must be solved - line we can't cross Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.57	facebookresearch/hydra v1.0.0rc1	github_release 2020-08-18	248_037 State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	10%
0.57	San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Map Handicap: NAVI (-2.5) vs GamerLegion (+2.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.57	Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.57	Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Geneva Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Casper Ruud(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 300k?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-07	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Which team will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	manifold 2026-05-17	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will I be a finalist in the 2026 ACX book review contest?(market prob: 23%)	manifold 2026-05-16	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2025-07-16	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2025-07-16	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Valorant: REBORN vs Enterprise Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group B(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-17	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.57	Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Which countries will be designated state sponsors of terrorism by the US at the end of 2027?	manifold 2026-05-18	INF_046 Governments worldwide will increasingly prioritize absolute energy independence, pursuing self-sufficiency in critical materials and domestic manufacturing capacity to support Sovereign AI initiatives — extending beyond G7 to mid-sized nations (Estonia... Morgan Stanley	Geopolitics	62%
0.57	Which team will win ARML 2026 Division B?	manifold 2026-05-18	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-17	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.57	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?(market prob: 34%)	polymarket 2026-03-30	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Tristan Schoolkate vs Kimmer Coppejans(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.57	Will Rob Thomson win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	242_056 AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	25%
0.57	By how much will the Democrats beat the GOP in the 2026 Massachusetts Governor’s Race?	manifold 2026-05-19	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	31%
0.57	2027 French Open - Men’s singles winner?	manifold 2026-05-19	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.57	scHelix: Asymmetric Dual-Stream Integration via Explicit Gene-Level Disentanglement	arxiv 2026-05-18	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.57	FDA ANDA219189: GALLIUM GA-68 GOZETOTIDE (GALLIUM GA-68 GOZETOTIDE) — IONETIX	fda 2026-05-14	AI_031 AGI will be defined by its ability to autonomously formulate novel scientific hypotheses — effectively solving '100 years of biology' in a fraction of the historical time required, via continuous hypothesis-generation and experimental iteration. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	51%
0.57	FDA ANDA218214: ESTRADIOL (ESTRADIOL) — ENCUBE	fda 2026-05-11	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.57	Spread: Thunder (-3.5)(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 78%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.57	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard	Media/Ads	50%
0.57	Who will win the MA-08 democratic primary?	manifold 2026-05-30	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of August? [Polymarket](market prob: 56%)	manifold 2026-05-29	INF_064 Within 15-20 years, the vast majority of global ride-hailing trips will be fulfilled by autonomous robotic vehicles — with human labor entirely removed from driving/delivery and transitioned to "mission control" roles (fleet maintenance, rapid rechargi... Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	58%
0.57	LessOnline 2027 will use brand new event software(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-28	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.57	Will my resin casted pepperoni mold within one year from today?(market prob: 81%)	manifold 2026-05-26	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.57	CHEVRON CORP (CVX) (CIK 0000093410)	edgar_8k 2026-05-29	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.57	CHEVRON CORP (CVX) (CIK 0000093410)	edgar_8k 2026-05-29	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.57	PARCEL: Pool-Anchored Resampling with Conditioned Elastic Queries for Efficient Vision-Language Understanding	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.57	Gesture-Aware Indoor THz ISAC Systems for Adaptive Resource Allocation	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.57	MōLe-Λ: Learning the Coupled-Cluster Response State for Energies, Gradients, and Properties	arxiv 2026-05-28	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.57	Audio Deepfake Detection with Half-Truth Localisation Using Cross-Attentive Feature Fusion	arxiv 2026-05-28	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.57	FDA ANDA200542: LORAZEPAM (LORAZEPAM) — RISING	fda 2026-05-15	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA ANDA216370: LEVOTHYROXINE SODIUM (LEVOTHYROXINE SODIUM) — ALEMBIC	fda 2026-05-20	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.57	FDA NDA219878: BAXFENDY (BAXDROSTAT) — ASTRAZENECA AB	fda 2026-05-15	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	FDA BLA761106: HERCEPTIN HYLECTA (TRASTUZUMAB AND HYALURONIDASE-OYSK) — GENENTECH INC	fda 2026-05-18	CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	24%
0.57	FDA ANDA214733: VENETOCLAX (VENETOCLAX) — DR REDDYS	fda 2026-05-15	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	Kosice: Martin Krumich vs Kilian Feldbausch(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Will Union Bordeaux Begles win?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 67m and 73m?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.57	Set Handicap: Jodar (-2.5) vs Busta (+2.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google	AI	46%
0.57	FDA BLA761170: PHESGO (PERTUZUMAB, TRASTUZUMAB, AND HYALURONIDASE-ZZXF) — GENENTECH INC	fda 2026-05-18	CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	24%
0.57	FDA BLA761170: PHESGO (PERTUZUMAB, TRASTUZUMAB, AND HYALURONIDASE-ZZXF) — GENENTECH INC	fda 2026-05-18	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	facebookresearch/detr v0.2	github_release 2020-06-29	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.57	Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.57	Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act make over $100 million at the worldwide box office?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-06-01	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.57	Sunrun Inc. (RUN) (CIK 0001469367)	edgar_8k 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	FDA ANDA203708: OLANZAPINE (OLANZAPINE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-05-26	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.57	FDA ANDA213362: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — DAITO	fda 2026-05-27	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA ANDA212975: IMATINIB MESYLATE (IMATINIB MESYLATE) — HETERO LABS LTD V	fda 2026-05-22	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA NDA220736: DIFFERIN EPIDUO ACNE GEL (ADAPALENE AND BENZOYL PEROXIDE) (ADAPALENE, BENZOYL PEROXIDE) — GALDERMA LABS LP	fda 2026-05-22	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.57	FDA ANDA207717: OXCARBAZEPINE (OXCARBAZEPINE) — RUBICON RESEARCH	fda 2026-05-15	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Valorant: QoR vs FlyQuest (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	NUSCALE POWER Corp (SMR) (CIK 0001822966)	edgar_8k 2026-06-02	INF_051 Tech-sector data centers will invert the tech-utility relationship: when operating below peak capacity, excess clean electricity from corporate-owned SMRs will flow back into municipal grids, positioning tech giants as primary energy providers to local... Jensen Huang	Energy	28%
0.57	Physics-Guided Attention in a Lightweight TCN for Efficient WiFi CSI-Based Human Activity Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-01	INF_043 Unit cost of intelligence will drop at a rate far exceeding Moore's Law, driving explosive demand growth that filters out to edge devices and localized small models. Marc Andreessen	AI	47%
0.57	Dr. DocBench: A Comprehensive Benchmark for Expert-Level and Difficult Document Parsing	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.57	Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Will CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo win on 2026-06-20?(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-23	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.57	RICHTECH ROBOTICS INC. (RR) (CIK 0001963685)	edgar_8k 2026-06-03	229_038 Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent capital unlock). Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	23%
0.57	FDA ANDA211747: OXCARBAZEPINE (OXCARBAZEPINE) — ZYDUS	fda 2026-05-28	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	Will Maya Joint win the 2026 Women’s French Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)(market prob: 37%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5)(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.57	Manifold Markets says I have 140 Traders right now. By June 7th I will have 60 more.(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-06-03	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	Atkore Inc. (ATKR) (CIK 0001666138)	edgar_8k 2026-06-04	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-11-04	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	Map Handicap: BIG (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.57	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Will Hunter Biden run for US President during his lifetime?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-06-05	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.57	Best Out-of-Context Quote at LessOnline 2026	manifold 2026-06-05	241_049 Underage kids / AI vulnerability problem must be solved - line we can't cross Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.57	TRACE: A Temporal Conditional Estimation for Multimodal Time Series Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.57	Adapting Diffusion Language Models for Lossless Pixel-Level Image Transmission	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.57	Bridging the Semantic-Collaborative Gap: An Asymmetric Graph Architecture for Cold-Start Item Recommendation	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.57	Robust and sparse support vector machine via hybrid truncated loss for supervised classification	arxiv 2026-06-04	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.57	Robust and sparse support vector machine via hybrid truncated loss for supervised classification	arxiv 2026-06-04	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.57	T-SAR-JEPA: Self-Supervised Temporal Anomaly Detection in SAR Amplitude Stacks via Latent Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.57	"Chi nas dal soch el sent de legn" -- Auditing Text Corpora for Lombard	arxiv 2026-06-04	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.57	NAVIRA: Decoupled Stochastic Remasking for Masked Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.57	Forgive or forget: Understanding the context of hate in audio retrieval systems	arxiv 2026-06-04	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.57	MASF: A Multi-Model Adaptive Selection Framework for Abstractive Text summarization	arxiv 2026-06-03	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	BPDA-GMM: Bayesian Probabilistic Data Association via Gaussian Mixture Models for Semantic SLAM	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.57	Probing anomalous quartic gauge couplings in same-sign $W$ boson scattering with polarization and spin correlation	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Lecture notes: Introduction to the Off-shell Double Copy Program	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.57	Optical properties of gravitating strings	arxiv 2026-06-03	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Unitarity, Recursion and Soft Limits in (EA)dS through Dressing	arxiv 2026-06-03	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	FDA NDA209805: STEGLUJAN (ERTUGLIFLOZIN) — MSD SUB MERCK	fda 2026-06-03	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA ANDA213343: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — ACCORD HLTHCARE	fda 2026-05-27	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.57	Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Spread: Knicks (-2.5)(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	facebookresearch/detectron2 v0.1	github_release 2020-02-07	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.57	EASE-TTT: Evidence-Aligned Selective Test-Time Training for Long-Context Question Answering	arxiv 2026-06-05	230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.57	FreeAnimate: Training-Free Human Image Animation with Preview-Guided Denoising	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	Stochastic scalar-tensor inflation and beyond	arxiv 2026-06-05	236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	35%
0.57	Wick-connected theories and Lorentz violation	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_004 By approximately 2027-2028, collaborative AI programs will essentially 'solve physics' — unifying general relativity and quantum mechanics into a new mathematical framework; the core mission of DeepMind is to 'first solve AI, then use AI to solve every... Demis Hassabis	AI	8%
0.57	Spread: Knicks (-3.5)(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Spread: Knicks (-1.5)(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.57	Spread: Knicks (-1.5)(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8?(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 34%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group A(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	What will be announced in tomorrow's Nintendo Direct? [Short Fuse] [Add Answers!]	manifold 2026-06-08	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Schrodinger, Inc. (SDGR) (CIK 0001490978)	edgar_8k 2026-06-08	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.57	Beam Therapeutics Inc. (BEAM) (CIK 0001745999)	edgar_8k 2026-06-08	TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event	—	15%
0.57	FDA BLA761036: DARZALEX (DARATUMUMAB) — JANSSEN BIOTECH	fda 2026-05-28	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	FDA ANDA078790: DIVALPROEX SODIUM (DIVALPROEX SODIUM) — LUPIN	fda 2026-05-28	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.57	FDA NDA209637: OZEMPIC (SEMAGLUTIDE) — NOVO	fda 2026-06-01	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.57	Will LeBron James play for the Detroit Pistons in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Dec 2026?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-09	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. (BAM) (CIK 0001937926)	edgar_8k 2026-06-09	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	Frequency-based Constrained Sampling for Interval Patterns	arxiv 2026-06-08	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.57	NüshuVoice: Reviving the Voice of Endangered Nüshu with Pitch-Aware Text-to-Speech	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.57	Finite Massless Pentaboxes	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.57	Experimental observation of hyperbolic spacetime dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-08	232_015 AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the next two years. Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.57	Model of Flavors	arxiv 2026-06-08	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.57	Is Exact Markovianity Fundamental Once Time Is Relational?	arxiv 2026-06-07	234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.57	Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5)(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.57	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3(market prob: 82%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	2026 FIFA World Cup top 4 variable payout	manifold 2026-06-10	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Total Goals at the 2026 fifa men’s World Cup?	manifold 2026-06-10	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	31%
0.57	Will any major conference issue a ban on scheduling games with Texas Tech as a result of the Sorsby situation in 2026?(market prob: 49%)	manifold 2026-06-09	248_037 State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	10%
0.57	Learning Doubly Sparse Explicitly Conditioned Transforms	arxiv 2026-06-09	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Generalized-CVO: Fast and Correspondence-Free Local Point Cloud Registration with Second Order Riemannian Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.57	Resonance and Differential Reduction of Feynman Integrals	arxiv 2026-06-08	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.57	facebookresearch/esm v1.0.2	github_release 2022-08-23	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.57	Will Jelena Ostapenko be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Ashlyn Krueger be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	How many more times will Trump publicly praise Allah in 2026?	manifold 2026-06-11	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.57	Will there be 4 hat tricks in the 2026 World Cup?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-06-11	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.57	In which groups will the third-placed team advance in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	manifold 2026-06-11	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Eaton Corp plc (ETN) (CIK 0001551182)	edgar_8k 2026-06-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Noise-Aware Framework for Correcting Corrupted Labels	arxiv 2026-06-10	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.57	Probabilistic Salary Prediction with Graph Attention Networks and a Mixture Density Network	arxiv 2026-06-10	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.57	Massive Open-Vocabulary Keyword Spotting	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.57	Weak-field waveforms for generic relativistic orbits	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_004 By approximately 2027-2028, collaborative AI programs will essentially 'solve physics' — unifying general relativity and quantum mechanics into a new mathematical framework; the core mission of DeepMind is to 'first solve AI, then use AI to solve every... Demis Hassabis	AI	8%
0.57	Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-17	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Christopher Nolan have a new film release in 2027 or 2028?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-06-12	242_013 Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	55%
0.57	Enovix Corp (ENVX) (CIK 0001828318)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	30%
0.57	RICHTECH ROBOTICS INC. (RR) (CIK 0001963685)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	229_038 Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent capital unlock). Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	23%
0.57	SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS, INC. (SWKS) (CIK 0000004127)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Uncertainty-Aware Hybrid Retrieval for Long-Document RAG	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Heterogeneous LiDAR Early Fusion and Learned Re-Ranking Strategy for Robust Long-Term Place Recognition in Unstructured Environments	arxiv 2026-06-11	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.57	Ontology Memory-Augmented ASR Correction for Long Text-Speech Interleaved Conversations	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.57	SMGFM: Spectral Multimodal Graph Pretraining for Multimodal-Attributed Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-11	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.57	A ribbon ZX calculus for gauge theory	arxiv 2026-06-11	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.57	Subtraction of infrared divergences in light-quark QCD sum rules	arxiv 2026-06-11	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Quantum Gravity Induced Entanglement from Propagating Gravitons	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Mapping the Infrared Phase Space of Gravity to Finite Subregions	arxiv 2026-06-10	231_036 Relativity Space still probably a year or two away from launch. Peter Diamandis	Space	51%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.5(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.57	Will the US government introduce any domestic restrictions on open-weight LLMs by EOY 2026?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-06-13	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.57	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?	manifold 2026-06-13	238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Spread: Spain (-1.5)(market prob: 74%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.57	Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.57	Will Depay Memphis be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-14	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-14	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.57	Will the number of U.S. Supreme Court Justices confirmed between June 15, 2026 and January 20, 2029 be at least one?(market prob: 88%)	manifold 2026-06-15	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will the Fed cut the federal funds rate at its July 2026 FOMC meeting?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-06-14	TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)	—	30%
0.57	AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) (CIK 0001780312)	edgar_8k 2026-06-15	248_001 Apple will soon pit Amazon (Global Star) against SpaceX Starlink as dual satellite vendors. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	42%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will greyhound racing be banned in the US by the end of 2027?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-06-16	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Will there be a VAR/refereeing controversy that causes a team to officially protest a World Cup 2026 group-stage result(market prob: 79%)	manifold 2026-06-16	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by June 30?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-06-16	COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	27%
0.57	2026 Esports World Cup - Chess winner?	manifold 2026-06-16	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.57	NVMOS: Non-Verbal Vocalization Quality Assessment in Speech	arxiv 2026-06-14	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.57	ROMPAR: Morphological Completion and Demographic Unlearning for Romanian-Accented Speech Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-14	IND_005 Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~... Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	33%
0.57	MVOFormer: Flow-Semantic Transformer for Robust Monocular Visual Odometry	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_013 'Unsupervised' Tesla Robotaxis will achieve operational capability across 25-50% of the United States by end of 2026 — initial production slow but deployment scales to capture multi-trillion-dollar transportation market. Humanoid robots (Optimus) event... Elon Musk	Auto/Transport	15%
0.57	The O(4)-breaking bubble	arxiv 2026-06-14	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	FDA NDA021951: ABSORICA (ISOTRETINOIN) — SUN PHARM INDS INC	fda 2026-06-12	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	FDA ANDA206751: METHYLPREDNISOLONE (METHYLPREDNISOLONE) — ZYDUS PHARMS	fda 2026-06-01	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.57	FDA BLA761119: VYEPTI (EPTINEZUMAB-JJMR) — Lundbeck Seattle BioPharmaceuticals, Inc.	fda 2026-06-05	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Will Pedri be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?(market prob: 37%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Will 2026 be Denver's warmest year ever?(market prob: 83%)	manifold 2026-06-15	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.57	Descriptor: Certus Caliber Classification Gunshot Dataset (C3GD)	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.57	When LLMs Analyze Scars: From Images to Clinically-Meaningful Features	arxiv 2026-06-16	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	FoundCause: Causal Discovery with Latent Confounders from Observational Data	arxiv 2026-06-16	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	Analyzing and Encoding the Al-Mawrid Arabic-English Dictionary with the ISO Language Markup Framework and TEI Lex-0	arxiv 2026-06-16	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	Single-valued polylogarithms for higher genera	arxiv 2026-06-16	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.57	A Double--Scaling Large--$d$ Saddle of BFSS/BMN Matrix Quantum Mechanics	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.57	Hamiltonian formalism for Bose excitations in a plasma with a non-Abelian interaction: plasmon bremsstrahlung	arxiv 2026-06-16	231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	23%
0.57	Supersymmetric geometry in non-supersymmetric effective field theory	arxiv 2026-06-15	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.57	Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Serve Robotics Inc. /DE/ (SERV) (CIK 0001832483)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.57	Voyager Technologies, Inc./TX (VOYG) (CIK 0001788060)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	S_COMPUTE_1GW_2027 Compute: 1GW operational by Jun 2027	compute_scale	60%
0.57	DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. (DOCN) (CIK 0001582961)	edgar_8k 2026-06-17	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Bloom Energy Corp (BE) (CIK 0001664703)	edgar_8k 2026-06-17	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	61%
0.57	TRINET GROUP, INC. (TNET) (CIK 0000937098)	edgar_8k 2026-06-17	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	61%
0.57	Neural Phase Correlation	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.57	Contextualizing Biological Language Models across Modalities via Logit-Space Contrastive Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.57	Universal Closed Form for Dynamical Love Numbers of Black Holes	arxiv 2026-06-17	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Post-Carroll Algebra, Conformal Extensions, and Field Theories	arxiv 2026-06-17	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Transient Bias for CP Domain Wall Decay and Dark Matter	arxiv 2026-06-17	240_012 Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few years Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt(market prob: 40%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Hybrid Diffusion Transformer for Instruction-Guided Audio Editing via Rectified Flow	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.57	Evaluation of EEG Foundation Models for Event-Based Burst-Suppression Detection in ICU	arxiv 2026-06-18	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	FineREX: Fine-Tuned NER-RE for Human Smuggling Knowledge Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.57	A BART-based approach with hierarchical strategy for Vietnamese abstractive multi-document summarization	arxiv 2026-06-17	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.57	Flow Map Denoisers: Traversing the Distortion-Perception Plane for Inverse Problems	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.57	Quantization of Brane-Skyrmions via Physics-Informed Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-18	231_047 Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	Factorized Quantum Curves and Voronoi Polytopes in 3D Duality Cascades with FI Parameters	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.57	Bootstrapping Pion Form Factors at Large $N$	arxiv 2026-06-17	INF_043 Unit cost of intelligence will drop at a rate far exceeding Moore's Law, driving explosive demand growth that filters out to edge devices and localized small models. Marc Andreessen	AI	47%
0.57	FDA BLA761149: ENSPRYNG (SATRALIZUMAB) — GENENTECH	fda 2026-06-10	TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event	—	15%
0.57	Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Brooklyn Nets in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-27	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2025-12-19	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will LeBron James play for the Phoenix Suns in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	238_049 Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	55%
0.57	Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	COD_ROB_001 Figure sustains a one-robot-per-hour Figure 03 production run-rate for at least 30 consecutive days by Q4 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	24%
0.57	Will France win the world cup(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-06-20	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.57	Which captain's team will top the money list for the 2026 Your Golf Tour regular season (YouTube golf)?	manifold 2026-06-20	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	FDA ANDA205294: DORZOLAMIDE HYDROCHLORIDE (DORZOLAMIDE HYDROCHLORIDE) — FDC LTD	fda 2026-06-10	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA BLA761234: OPDUALAG (NIVOLUMAB) — BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB	fda 2026-06-08	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.57	Will Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?(market prob: 15%)	polymarket 2026-01-28	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	How many psets does x do?	manifold 2026-06-21	248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.57	Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2025-11-04	229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock	Robotics	37%
0.57	Norway or Senegal	manifold 2026-06-22	243_025 Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.57	Nextpower Inc. (NXT) (CIK 0001852131)	edgar_8k 2026-06-22	SEM_011 Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. Jensen Huang	Capital Markets	86%
0.57	AeroVironment Inc (AVAV) (CIK 0001368622)	edgar_8k 2026-06-22	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	30%
0.57	SPX Technologies, Inc. (SPXC) (CIK 0000088205)	edgar_8k 2026-06-22	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	30%
0.57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 82%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.57	Canadiens vs. Lightning(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 4 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	246_054 Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-27	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.57	Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	243_001 Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.57	Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.57	LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.57	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-31	238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Madrid Open: Hailey Baptiste vs Mirra Andreeva(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-01	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.57	Free Lottery (Monster black hole)(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-04-29	246_031 Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Will I finish my library takeouts before theyre due?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-04-28	240_004 A new repo from 2027 will go from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	36%
0.57	Which country will win the 2026 ICPC World Finals?	manifold 2026-04-28	SEM_016 Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chain resilience. David Friedberg	Semis/Geopolitics	24%
0.57	In 2050, who will think a Trump assassination attempt was a false flag? [Resolves to %]	manifold 2026-04-27	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.57	Will I promote to Platinum this season?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-04-26	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.57	will drake delay iceman from his proposed date (15th may)(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-04-25	238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick	Robotics	42%
0.57	Will a particular friend of mine crack anyone while at math camp?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-04-24	238_020 Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	61%
0.57	Which side will win in "The Prediction Market Debate"?	manifold 2026-04-24	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Valorant: QoR vs FlyQuest (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk	AI	47%
0.57	Shymkent 2: Sergey Fomin vs Max Hans Rehberg(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.57	Shymkent 2: Sergey Fomin vs Max Hans Rehberg(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-04	FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam	Energy	45%
0.57	Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.57		gdelt 2026-04-30	FUT_014 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	55%
0.57	elon musk accuses openais leaders of looting the nonprofit in court testimony	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_028 Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.57	elon musk accuses openais leaders of looting the nonprofit in court testimony	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_028 Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.57	elon musk accuses openais leaders of looting the nonprofit in court testimony	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_028 Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.57	elon musk accuses openais leaders of looting the nonprofit in court testimony	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_028 Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.57	nasas artemis ii moonship returns home to its launch site after historic voyage	gdelt 2026-04-30	SPC_013 As 15th NASA Administrator (confirmed December 2025), Isaacman predicts NASA will launch astronauts into space every 6-9 months via commercial partnerships — plus aggressive reinforcement of lunar-lander programs to establish a permanent surface presen... Jared Isaacman	Space	46%
0.57	elon musk accuses openais leaders of looting the nonprofit in court testimony	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_028 Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.57	were doing the work required to win back fans across windows and xbox microsoft ceo satya nadella says the company is making foundational changes to fix windows 11 and xbox	gdelt 2026-04-30	236_015 Unnamed tech CEO plans to fire 15% of workers now, 20% in 2 years, 20% more after Unnamed tech CEO	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.57	elon musk accuses openais leaders of looting the nonprofit in court testimony	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_028 Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.57	elon musk accuses openais leaders of looting the nonprofit in court testimony	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_028 Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.57	elon musk accuses openais leaders of looting the nonprofit in court testimony	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_028 Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.57	elon musk accuses openais leaders of looting the nonprofit in court testimony	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_028 Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.57	elon musk accuses openais leaders of looting the nonprofit in court testimony	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_028 Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.57		gdelt 2026-04-30	240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.57	bitcoin bestaende elon musks vater enthuellt ueberraschende bitcoin bestaende der familie 00 15640043	gdelt 2026-04-30	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.57	article 8b95624c d5b5 561d ae7b 26fea635f3c2.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	article 3ba70d79 6952 58b3 b9c5 bc743d7ed167.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	elon musk accuses openais leaders of looting the nonprofit in court testimony	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_028 Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.57	elon musk accuses openais leaders of looting the nonprofit in court testimony	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_028 Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.57	pharvaris investors directors sale matters 004201595.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.57	microsoft delivers a promising quarter but cant shake software fears.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.57	elon musk accuses openais leaders of looting the nonprofit in court testimony	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_028 Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.57	elon musk accuses openais leaders of looting the nonprofit in court testimony	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_028 Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.57	elon musk accuses openais leaders of looting the nonprofit in court testimony	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_028 Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.57	elon musk accuses openais leaders of looting the nonprofit in court testimony	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_028 Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.57	article 3b210a08 e0a6 5323 b6f9 965a0448b845.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.57	article 3b210a08 e0a6 5323 b6f9 965a0448b845.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	elon musk accuses openais leaders of looting the nonprofit in court testimony	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_028 Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.57	article 38d20b07 89c9 5140 b34c c75ec4a41be5.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	24%
0.57	Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	233_011 Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption. Joe Liemandt	Education	37%
0.57	Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-07	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	will my application to the 2026 LWCW be accepted? [short fuse](market prob: 71%)	manifold 2026-04-30	FUT_016 Next 5 years (2026-2030) require individuals + organizations to adopt 'FLUX' superpowers — ability to transform constant uncertainty into strategic advantage. Traditional linear career paths dissolve entirely by 2030, replaced by fluid portfolio-based ... April Rinne	Labor/Jobs	39%
0.57	Penalty shootout in champions league semi final? 2025/2026 season(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-04-30	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	VALERO ENERGY CORP/TX (VLO) (CIK 0001035002)	edgar_8k 2026-04-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Iran leadership change by December 31?(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2026-03-09	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2025-11-14	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will Germany win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	Will Germany win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Netanyahu out by June 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-02	230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Which Bernie Sanders endorsees will win their 2026 primaries?	manifold 2026-05-01	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	Samsara Inc. (IOT) (CIK 0001642896)	edgar_8k 2026-05-01	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.57	Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will France win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.57	Will Malta win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-22	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2025-07-16	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.57	Game Handicap: KRX (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5)(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Counter-Strike: TDK vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group Stage(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs SPARTA (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock	Robotics	62%
0.57	Will a member of the House of Representatives for the Choktaw Nation be seated by EOY 2031?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-03	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	Spread: Knicks (-7.5)(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.57	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-04	FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam	Energy	45%
0.57	F1: Who will win the 2026 Lenovo Canadian Grand Prix?	manifold 2026-05-04	242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.57	Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz on any week in 2026?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-04	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.57	Will Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.0 million tonnes?(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-05-04	FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam	Energy	45%
0.57	Will Guinea's bauxite exports for calendar year 2027 exceed 140 million tonnes?(market prob: 73%)	manifold 2026-05-04	CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	84%
0.57	Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard	Media/Ads	50%
0.57	LoL: Forsaken vs Lodis (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 77%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-17	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.57	Will Subnautica 2 have more peak players in the first month of Early Access than Subnautica: Below Zero?(market prob: 72%)	manifold 2026-05-04	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.57	AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER CO INC (AEP) (CIK 0000004904)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.57	AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER CO INC (AEP) (CIK 0000004904)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	PROCORE TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (PCOR) (CIK 0001611052)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	SEM_048 OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support Stargate chip acquisition). OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)	AI/Corporate	80%
0.57	Vistra Corp. (VST) (CIK 0001692819)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	MASIMO CORP (MASI) (CIK 0000937556)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	238_036 Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp, operating on behalf of advertisers Emad Mostaque	Media/Ads	35%
0.57	Senseonics Holdings, Inc. (SENS) (CIK 0001616543)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.57	Senseonics Holdings, Inc. (SENS) (CIK 0001616543)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	FDA ANDA206252: QUETIAPINE FUMARATE (QUETIAPINE FUMARATE) — ACCORD HLTHCARE	fda 2026-04-22	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.57	FDA ANDA210672: MULTIPLE VITAMINS INJECTION ADULT (ALPHA-TOCOPHEROL ACETATE) — APOTEX	fda 2026-04-09	245_010 Breaking will pursue a human-body microplastic solution (supplement) in addition to environmental plastic degradation Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	41%
0.57	FDA ANDA205105: METHYLPHENIDATE HYDROCHLORIDE (METHYLPHENIDATE HYDROCHLORIDE) — IMPAX LABS INC	fda 2026-04-21	245_009 Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	45%
0.57	FDA BLA125409: PERJETA (PERTUZUMAB) — GENENTECH	fda 2026-04-23	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA ANDA090170: LAMOTRIGINE (LAMOTRIGINE) — UNICHEM LABS LTD	fda 2026-04-09	AI_031 AGI will be defined by its ability to autonomously formulate novel scientific hypotheses — effectively solving '100 years of biology' in a fraction of the historical time required, via continuous hypothesis-generation and experimental iteration. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	51%
0.57	FDA ANDA220264: VERICIGUAT (VERICIGUAT) — CHANGZHOU PHARMACEUTICAL FACTORY	fda 2026-04-08	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.57	FDA ANDA206371: OLMESARTAN MEDOXOMIL AND HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE (HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE) — MICRO LABS	fda 2026-04-13	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA ANDA090517: VALPROIC ACID (VALPROIC ACID) — QUAGEN	fda 2026-04-17	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	huggingface/transformers v5.6.2	github_release 2026-04-23	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	meta-llama/llama-cookbook v0.0.4.post1	github_release 2024-09-26	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.57	meta-llama/llama-verifications v0.1.1	github_release 2025-08-15	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.57	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.17.1	github_release 2024-10-24	CMQ_025 The entire global installed base of data centers must be ripped out and replaced — legacy DCs unfit for AI factory workloads. Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	49%
0.57	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.14.1	github_release 2023-11-14	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.57	pytorch/pytorch v2.0.1	github_release 2023-05-08	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.57	1x-technologies/halodi-unity-package-registry-manager 1.0.4	github_release 2023-08-29	COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	27%
0.57	Spread: Spurs (-9.5)(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana(market prob: 20%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana(market prob: 20%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	24%
0.57	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-04-17	229_037 With humanoids, Greenland mineral extraction becomes viable even though Europeans at Davos say it's impossible. Peter Diamandis	Energy	21%
0.57	Dota 2: MODUS vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - European Pro League Group B(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.57	LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Ici Japon Corp. Esport - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	Will GameStop acquire eBay?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross	Consumer	42%
0.57	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.57	ViewSAM: Learning View-aware Cross-modal Semantics for Weakly Supervised Cross-view Referring Multi-Object Tracking	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.57	GRPO-TTA: Test-Time Visual Tuning for Vision-Language Models via GRPO-Driven Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-05	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.57	PODiff: Latent Diffusion in Proper Orthogonal Decomposition Space for Scientific Super-Resolution	arxiv 2026-05-05	S_AGI_SLOW_2031 AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path	agi_general_capability	25%
0.57	Pose Tracking with a Foundation Pose Model and an Ensemble Directional Kalman Filter	arxiv 2026-05-04	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.57	Revisiting Semantic Role Labeling: Efficient Structured Inference with Dependency-Informed Analysis	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	92%
0.57	QCD sum rules: Borel parameter vs. Euclidean time	arxiv 2026-05-05	231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	23%
0.57	Parafermionic and decoupled multicritical points in a frustrated $\mathbb{Z}_6$ clock chain	arxiv 2026-05-04	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.57	Landau levels via Jordan superalgebras	arxiv 2026-05-04	232_056 Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	FDA NDA218390: INGREZZA SPRINKLE (VALBENAZINE TOSYLATE) — NEUROCRINE	fda 2026-04-08	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.57	FDA NDA218390: INGREZZA SPRINKLE (VALBENAZINE TOSYLATE) — NEUROCRINE	fda 2026-04-08	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	FDA ANDA218441: SITAGLIPTIN (SITAGLIPTIN) — BIOCON PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-05-01	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA ANDA218441: SITAGLIPTIN (SITAGLIPTIN) — BIOCON PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-05-01	AI_031 AGI will be defined by its ability to autonomously formulate novel scientific hypotheses — effectively solving '100 years of biology' in a fraction of the historical time required, via continuous hypothesis-generation and experimental iteration. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	51%
0.57	FDA NDA220837: EVDI (TRABECTEDIN) — APOTEX	fda 2026-05-01	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.57	FDA ANDA217957: LEUPROLIDE ACETATE (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — UBI	fda 2026-05-06	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA NDA021977: VYVANSE (LISDEXAMFETAMINE DIMESYLATE) — TAKEDA PHARMS USA	fda 2026-04-23	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	FDA ANDA212597: PIRFENIDONE (PIRFENIDONE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA	fda 2026-04-20	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	FDA ANDA205772: CALCIPOTRIENE (CALCIPOTRIENE) — GLENMARK SPECLT	fda 2026-04-17	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.57	FDA ANDA075388: BUSPIRONE HYDROCHLORIDE (BUSPIRONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — OXFORD PHARMS	fda 2026-04-15	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA ANDA216327: DILTIAZEM HYDROCHLORIDE (DILTIAZEM HYDROCHLORIDE) — SCIEGEN PHARMS	fda 2026-04-10	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Luca Nardi(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?(market prob: 65%)	manifold 2026-05-07	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Will "Taking woo seriously but not literally" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-07	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Distilling Bayesian Belief States into Language Models for Auditable Negotiation	arxiv 2026-05-06	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.57	CAR: Query-Guided Confidence-Aware Reranking for Retrieval-Augmented Generation	arxiv 2026-05-06	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.57	FDA ANDA218341: OXCARBAZEPINE (OXCARBAZEPINE) — UMEDICA LABS PVT	fda 2026-04-29	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA ANDA202949: DULOXETINE HYDROCHLORIDE (DULOXETINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — ALEMBIC	fda 2026-04-09	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA ANDA210164: POMALIDOMIDE (POMALIDOMIDE) — APOTEX	fda 2026-04-27	CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis	AI	60%
0.57	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.1.7-rc1	github_release 2021-01-25	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.57	facebookresearch/faiss v1.13.0	github_release 2025-11-12	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.57	facebookresearch/faiss v1.5.3	github_release 2019-06-24	238_024 AI token speed will jump from ~50 tokens/sec to ~1,000 tokens/sec (Cerebras) Emad Mostaque	AI	37%
0.57	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.33.post2	github_release 2025-12-03	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.57	Spread: Knicks (-1.5)(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Counter-Strike: MIBR fe vs Isurus (BO3) - CCT South America Series #1 Playoffs(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock	Robotics	62%
0.57	eXplaining to Learn (eX2L): Regularization Using Contrastive Visual Explanation Pairs for Distribution Shifts	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	Retina-RAG: Retrieval-Augmented Vision-Language Modeling for Joint Retinal Diagnosis and Clinical Report Generation	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Retina-RAG: Retrieval-Augmented Vision-Language Modeling for Joint Retinal Diagnosis and Clinical Report Generation	arxiv 2026-05-07	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.57	Dynamic Pondering Sparsity-aware Mixture-of-Experts Transformer for Event Stream based Visual Object Tracking	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_013 'Unsupervised' Tesla Robotaxis will achieve operational capability across 25-50% of the United States by end of 2026 — initial production slow but deployment scales to capture multi-trillion-dollar transportation market. Humanoid robots (Optimus) event... Elon Musk	Auto/Transport	15%
0.57	Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-07	230_031 We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across many fields starting now. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.57	Revisiting Uncertainty: On Evidential Learning for Partially Relevant Video Retrieval	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	Dr-PoGO: Direct Radar Pose-Graph Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-06	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.57	Perturbative, Nonperturbative and Exact Aspects of Crystalline Phases in the Gross-Neveu Model	arxiv 2026-05-06	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.57	Neutrino Flavor Transformation in Collapsing Supermassive Objects	arxiv 2026-05-05	230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis	AI	48%
0.57	FDA BLA761183: TZIELD (TEPLIZUMAB-MZWV) — PROVENTION BIO INC	fda 2026-06-12	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.57	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexei Popyrin vs Jakub Mensik(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-03-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Knicks vs. 76ers(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.57	LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.57	Will the fight be won by submission?(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-04-18	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	@MarySmith attends Manifest '26?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-05-07	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.57	VALERO ENERGY CORP/TX (VLO) (CIK 0001035002)	edgar_8k 2026-05-08	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.57	Sabres vs. Canadiens(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 35m?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.57	Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 32m?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.57	Will Marco Rubio ever be President of the United States?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-05-10	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	Spread: Thunder (-10.5)(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.57	Spread: Thunder (-11.5)(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.57	LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Will national dry van spot rate be below $1.50/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-05-10	244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.57	Coursera, Inc. (COUR) (CIK 0001651562)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	facebookresearch/Replica-Dataset v1.0	github_release 2019-06-14	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.57	facebookresearch/spdl v0.1.6	github_release 2025-10-28	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%