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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.58	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.25.post1	github_release 2024-03-29	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.58	Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 214.5(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.58	Spread: Spurs (-4.5)(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.58	Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.58	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.58	Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	test-a(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-05-08	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.58	PREFER: Personalized Review Summarization with Online Preference Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.58	PRISM: Iterative Cross-Modal Posterior Refinement for Dynamic Text-Attributed Graphs	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.58	Gaussian mixture models in Hilbert spaces via kernel methods	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	TabCF: Distributional Control Function Estimation with Tabular Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.58	Bridging Passive and Active: Enhancing Conversation Starter Recommendation via Active Expression Modeling	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Estimating the Black-box LLM Uncertainty with Distribution-Aligned Adversarial Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-07	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	All-loop four-quark Bethe-Salpeter kernel	arxiv 2026-05-06	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.58	On the equivalence of unitarization prescriptions for the Sommerfeld enhancement	arxiv 2026-05-06	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.58	Time-Dependent Dynamical Dimensional Transmutation in the $SU(2)$ Gross-Neveu Model with Time-Dependent Interaction Strength	arxiv 2026-05-06	238_072 Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days Emad Mostaque	AI	74%
0.58	FDA ANDA213929: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — LEADING	fda 2026-05-05	CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	24%
0.58	FDA ANDA090508: FINASTERIDE (FINASTERIDE) — SUN PHARM	fda 2026-04-30	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10?(market prob: 63%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Galaxy Digital Inc. (GLXY) (CIK 0001859392)	edgar_8k 2026-05-08	CMQ_040 AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant global memory suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). Samsung executives	Semis/Memory	62%
0.58	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will Cameron Norrie win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.58	Will US Average Gas Price fall below $4.10 in May 2026?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-05-10	244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.58	Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BC.Game Esports (+1.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.58	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16?(market prob: 84%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.58	Game Handicap: TOG (-1.5) vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	US Box Office battle: 05/15-05/17/26	manifold 2026-05-11	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.58	Will the UK introduce proportional representation for general elections before 2030?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-05-11	236_002 UBI must come before UHI as an intermediate step Andrew Yang	Macro/Economy	42%
0.58	Who will own the pinky of @draaglom at EOY 2026?	manifold 2026-05-11	238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick	Robotics	42%
0.58	TERADYNE, INC (TER) (CIK 0000097210)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.58	UR-ENERGY INC (URG) (CIK 0001375205)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.58	SOLAREDGE TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (SEDG) (CIK 0001419612)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	facebookresearch/spdl v0.3.1	github_release 2026-04-16	INF_026 'Software 3.0' LLM infrastructure will operate like public utilities — requiring massive upfront capex (training compute, specialized hardware), specialized networking protocols for synchrony across hundreds of thousands of GPUs, and flawless uninterru... Andrej Karpathy	AI	70%
0.58	facebookresearch/spdl v0.1.3	github_release 2025-09-01	232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	70%
0.58	facebookresearch/spdl v0.1.3	github_release 2025-09-01	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.58	facebookresearch/spdl v0.1.2	github_release 2025-08-21	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.58	facebookresearch/spdl v0.1.1	github_release 2025-07-01	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.58	facebookresearch/spdl v0.0.11	github_release 2025-04-11	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.58	Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.58	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will América FC vs. Vila Nova FC end in a draw?(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Will Russia gain more territory than it loses in May 2026?(market prob: 54%)	manifold 2026-05-12	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.58	Who will be the Indonesia National Mathematical Olympiad 2026 absolute winner?	manifold 2026-05-12	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.58	STERLING INFRASTRUCTURE, INC. (STRL) (CIK 0000874238)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.58	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.6.0	github_release 2025-05-14	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.58	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.5.9	github_release 2025-05-09	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.58	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.0.0	github_release 2023-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14?(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-12-23	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	242_037 China will land on the moon before end of 2030 China (government)	Space	46%
0.58	Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.58	Will Kash Patel still be FBI Director On 1st July 2026(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-05-13	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.58	Enovix Corp (ENVX) (CIK 0001828318)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	61%
0.58	Martingale-Consistent Self-Supervised Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.58	One-Step Generative Modeling via Wasserstein Gradient Flows	arxiv 2026-05-12	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.58	LoL: Shifters vs Galions (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.58	Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?(market prob: 69%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Trump Leave China on May 15?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	30%
0.58	Will Russell Henley win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Who will be West Java rank 1 on the provincial round of 2026 Indonesia National Math Olympiad?	manifold 2026-05-14	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Topology-Preserving Neural Operator Learning via Hodge Decomposition	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Fast and effective algorithms for fair clustering at scale	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.58	Fast and effective algorithms for fair clustering at scale	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Proximal-Based Generative Modeling for Bayesian Inverse Problems	arxiv 2026-05-13	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.58	A$_3$B$_2$: Adaptive Asymmetric Adapter for Alleviating Branch Bias in Vision-Language Image Classification with Few-Shot Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Decision Tree Learning on Product Spaces	arxiv 2026-05-13	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.58	CRePE: Curved Ray Expectation Positional Encoding for Unified-Camera-Controlled Video Generation	arxiv 2026-05-13	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.58	FDA ANDA091037: VALPROIC ACID (VALPROIC ACID) — SUN PHARM INDS LTD	fda 2026-05-05	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	FDA NDA022433: BRILINTA (TICAGRELOR) — ASTRAZENECA	fda 2026-05-07	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.58	Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.58	Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	238_036 Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp, operating on behalf of advertisers Emad Mostaque	Media/Ads	35%
0.58	Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?(market prob: 92%)	polymarket 2026-02-13	FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	30%
0.58	Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.58	Which team will win the 2026 MLS Cup (all 30 teams in market) Polymarket and Kalshi in description	manifold 2026-05-15	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.58	Will the Iran / US war resume before May 22nd?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-14	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.58	China mainland will have the broadcasting rights for the World Cup 2026 by the end of May 2026(market prob: 86%)	manifold 2026-05-12	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.58	RefDecoder: Enhancing Visual Generation with Conditional Video Decoding	arxiv 2026-05-14	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.58	Evidential Reasoning Advances Interpretable Real-World Disease Screening	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.58	When Answers Stray from Questions: Hallucination Detection via Question-Answer Orthogonal Decomposition	arxiv 2026-05-14	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.58	Randomized Atomic Feature Models for Physics-Informed Identification of Dynamic Systems	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Nearest-Neighbor Radii under Dependent Sampling	arxiv 2026-05-14	248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.58	Language-Induced Priors for Domain Adaptation	arxiv 2026-05-14	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.58	Smooth Multi-Policy Causal Effect Estimation in Longitudinal Settings	arxiv 2026-05-14	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.58	Training-Free Generative Sampling via Moment-Matched Score Smoothing	arxiv 2026-05-14	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.58	FDA NDA204819: ADEMPAS (RIOCIGUAT) — BAYER HLTHCARE	fda 2026-05-08	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.58	What will my custom Zetamac score (average of 5) be in a week?	manifold 2026-05-16	242_005 Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day) Peter Diamandis	Space	49%
0.58	Will the US announce an arms sale to Taiwan of more than $10 billion dollars value between May and September 2026?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-05-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	FDA ANDA204345: CAPECITABINE (CAPECITABINE) — DR REDDYS	fda 2026-05-07	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.58	FDA NDA021379: ELIGARD KIT (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — TOLMAR	fda 2026-05-06	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.58	facebookresearch/hydra v1.0.7	github_release 2021-07-15	242_051 Dyson swarm compute infrastructure will be realized in a few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.58	San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.58	Golden Knights vs. Avalanche(market prob: 37%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will any horse win the Triple Crown in 2027?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-17	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.58	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang	Policy/Semis	66%
0.58	Will Alberta join the US? (market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-02-06	FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan	Macro/Economy	72%
0.58	Will Mohamed Salah be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-08-17	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Bella Poarch - Ribcage (Official Music Video) on youtube will reach above 3M views before the end of May 2026??(market prob: 75%)	manifold 2026-05-18	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Russian ISPs require additional payments from end-users for cross-border traffic by the end of 2026(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-05-18	SPC_006 Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual revenues exceeding $20 billion — internal cash flow essentially eliminates SpaceX's requirement for public market capital and funds high-risk developme... SpaceX	Space	88%
0.58	What award will I get at AMM 2026?	manifold 2026-05-18	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.58	Will Jose Luis Ricon find a new girlfriend by EOY2026?(market prob: 73%)	manifold 2026-05-15	234_051 Claude-facilitated dating will replace traditional matchmaking Alex Wissner-Gross	Consumer	38%
0.58	Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.58	Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Liquid (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group B(market prob: 63%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.58	Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-23?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20?(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	An Assessment of Human vs. Model Uncertainty in Soft-Label Learning and Calibration	arxiv 2026-05-18	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.58	XCTFormer: Leveraging Cross-Channel and Cross-Time Dependencies for Enhanced Time-Series Analysis	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.58	GAMMA: Global Bit Allocation for Mixed-Precision Models under Arbitrary Budgets	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Dynamic Elliptical Graph Factor Models via Riemannian Optimization with Geodesic Temporal Regularization	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.58	Wasserstein bounds for denoising diffusion probabilistic models via the Föllmer process	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.58	Is Complex Training Necessary for Long-Tailed OOD Detection? A Re-think from Feature Geometry	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.58	Is Complex Training Necessary for Long-Tailed OOD Detection? A Re-think from Feature Geometry	arxiv 2026-05-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.58	When a Zero-Shooter Cheats: Improving Age Estimation via Activation Steering	arxiv 2026-05-17	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.58	Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will David Njoku play for New Orleans Saints in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-02	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.58	Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.58	Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.58	Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-02-28	FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	30%
0.58	Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.58	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of July? [Polymarket](market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-28	243_025 Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.58	Will Bricks and Minifigs corporate declare bankruptcy in the USA by the end of 2029?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-27	IND_007 Massive 'Corporate Collapse' 2026 as legacy businesses fail to integrate GPT-5 level capabilities — specifically predicting a 1.1 million job loss event tied to this transition. AI intelligence growth by end-2026 comparable to evolutionary leap 'from a... Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	34%
0.58	Will Trump's approval rating hit 37.4% or lower on Silver Bulletin by the end of June 2027?(market prob: 82%)	manifold 2026-05-25	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.58	Nash Pit, Manifest 2026: What choice will Contestant A make?	manifold 2026-05-24	233_005 Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year. Dave Blundin	AI	51%
0.58	Roblox Corp (RBLX) (CIK 0001315098)	edgar_8k 2026-05-29	CYB_018 Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — backed by concentrated collective capital of the AI hardware-software industry (Microsoft, NVIDIA, OpenAI), signaling industry-wide belief that humanoid r... Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.58	Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR) (CIK 0001761312)	edgar_8k 2026-05-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	PEABODY ENERGY CORP (BTU) (CIK 0001064728)	edgar_8k 2026-05-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	MIRA: Mid-training Rubric Anchoring for Source-Aware Data Selection	arxiv 2026-05-28	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.58	When, why, and how do diffusion posterior samplers fail? A finite-sample lens	arxiv 2026-05-28	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.58	Wasserstein Contraction of Coordinate Ascent Variational Inference	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Wasserstein Contraction of Coordinate Ascent Variational Inference	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.58	SGMD: Score Gradient Matching Distillation for Few-Step Video Diffusion Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-28	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	OVA-IB: One vs All Information Bottleneck for Multi-Modal Alignment	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.58	Dial HEALTHDIAL for Advice: A Multilingual and Multi-Parallel Spoken Dialogue Dataset for Knowledge-Grounded Information Seeking	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.58	DGSG-Mind: Dynamic 3D Gaussian Scene Graphs for Long-Term Scene Understanding and Grounding	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.58	FDA ANDA091404: MEROPENEM (MEROPENEM) — ACS DOBFAR	fda 2026-05-20	TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event	—	15%
0.58	FDA ANDA215217: LEVALBUTEROL HYDROCHLORIDE (LEVALBUTEROL HYDROCHLORIDE) — NEPHRON	fda 2026-05-26	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Galorys (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	229_033 Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3s. Brett Adcock	Robotics	40%
0.58	Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-25	247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	46%
0.58	Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 2(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Brazil 2026 Election: Will Brazil’s third way fail the 10% test?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-05-27	FUT_014 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	55%
0.58	Will Portland Fire win the 2026 WNBA Finals?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open?(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will GMail get blocked in Russia by the end of 2026(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-06-01	COD_AI_003 EU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin on 2026-08-02 without a blanket delay Codex Research Pack	Geopolitics	40%
0.58	FDA ANDA208028: LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE (LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — INVAGEN PHARMS	fda 2026-05-15	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	FDA BLA761334: ZYNYZ (RETIFANLIMAB-DLWR) — INCYTE CORP	fda 2026-05-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	FDA ANDA040054: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — HIKMA	fda 2026-05-27	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	FDA BLA761354: TOFIDENCE (TOCILIZUMAB-BAVI) — BIOGEN MA	fda 2026-05-22	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.58	Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs M80 (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	PEABODY ENERGY CORP (BTU) (CIK 0001064728)	edgar_8k 2026-06-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Understanding-Enhanced Model Collaboration for Long-Tailed Egocentric Mistake Detection	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.58	Construction of Historical Knowledge Graphs Based on BERT and Graph Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-01	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Construction of Historical Knowledge Graphs Based on BERT and Graph Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.58	Shortcut to Nowhere: Demystifying Deep Spurious Regression	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Understanding Identity Continuity in Thermal Video through Scene-Level Consistency	arxiv 2026-06-01	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.58	Regularized Large Neighborhood Search	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.58	Self-Improving Small Object Grounding in LVLMs	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.58	SN-WER: Script-Normalized WER for Multi-Script Indic ASR Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-01	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.58	Peacemaker at ATE-IT: Automatic term extraction from Italian text for waste management data using encoder model	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	DiscourseFlip: An Oblique Discourse-Level Opinion Manipulation Attack against Black-box Retrieval-Augmented Generation	arxiv 2026-05-31	237_001 Increased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become more and more prevalent. Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.58	From Outliers to Errors: Auditing Pali-to-English LLM Translations with Multi-Reference Adjudication	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.58	PMC-InterCPT: Rethinking Biomedical Interleaved Data for Multimodal Continued Pretraining	arxiv 2026-05-31	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.58	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.3.1	github_release 2024-03-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.58	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.2.5	github_release 2023-07-29	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.58	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.2.4	github_release 2023-03-31	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.58	facebookresearch/facestar male_speaker_testset	github_release 2022-03-25	237_001 Increased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become more and more prevalent. Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.58	Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will an Average New Zealander born in the year 2000 live to 150? (RESOLVES IN A WEEK)(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-06-03	242_047 Frontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 years Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	39%
0.58	Bristow Group Inc. (VTOL) (CIK 0001525221)	edgar_8k 2026-06-03	238_049 Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	55%
0.58	Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Tyler: Braden Shick vs Aidan Mayo(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2025-07-24	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.58	Will Russia gain more territory than it loses in June 2026, according to Ukraine?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-06-04	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.58	SOLAREDGE TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (SEDG) (CIK 0001419612)	edgar_8k 2026-06-04	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Will Maxx Crosby play for Tennessee Titans next?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.58	Will Maxx Crosby play for Los Angeles Rams next?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Free Lottery (Faber–Jackson relation)(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-05	SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Mathematics	15%
0.58	Beyond Waveform Robustness: Robust Feature-Vocoder Adversarial Attacks on Automatic Speech Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Efficient Mean Curvature Computation on High-Dimensional Data Manifolds	arxiv 2026-06-04	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.58	Reactive Flux Matching: Mechanism Discovery and Adaptive Sampling of Rare Events	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.58	Discrete Causal Representations from Heterogeneous Domains: A Bayesian Approach with Social Survey Applications	arxiv 2026-06-04	234_003 Within 1-2 years we will look back and wonder why training was centralized while inference was decentralized Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.58	HoT-SSM:Higher-order Temporal Knowledge Graph Reasoning with State Space Models for Health Care	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Knowledge Manifold: A Riemannian Geometric Framework for Semantic Mapping and Geodesic Analysis of Scientific Literature	arxiv 2026-06-04	240_033 AI will compress decades of research into years, months, weeks Salim Ismail	AI	42%
0.58	TS-ICL: A Flexible Time-Indexed Foundation Model for Time Series via In-Context Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	INF_028 AI will render approximately 99% of white-collar jobs replaceable within two years — cognitive-labor costs will mathematically approach the marginal cost of electricity required to generate inference. Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	14%
0.58	CaliDist: Calibrating Large Language Models via Behavioral Robustness to Distraction	arxiv 2026-06-04	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.58	MemoryCard: Topic-Aware Multi-Modal Clue Compression for Long-Video Question Answering	arxiv 2026-06-04	SEM_029 Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI training. Nvidia	Semis/Products	79%
0.58	ACE-SQL: Adaptive Co-Optimization via Empirical Credit Assignment for Text-to-SQL	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	In-Context Graphical Inference	arxiv 2026-06-03	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.58	SemBlock: Semantic Boundary Dynamic Blocks for Diffusion LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-03	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.58	Thermal Positivity	arxiv 2026-06-03	234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.58	Off-shell Thermodynamics and Kinetics of Holographic CFTs Dual to Charged AdS Black Holes	arxiv 2026-06-03	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.58	Multi-entropy in random tensor networks	arxiv 2026-06-03	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi	Other	53%
0.58	Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June?(market prob: 80%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	246_030 DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.58	What will Iker Torres Terrazas (MEX2) get at IMO 2026?	manifold 2026-06-05	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.58	Will Trump go a day in June without insulting someone?(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-06-05	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.58	UR-ENERGY INC (URG) (CIK 0001375205)	edgar_8k 2026-06-05	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.58	Spread: Colombia (-1.5)(market prob: 63%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Will Serge Gnabry be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.58	Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-01-05	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.58	Will Dani Olmo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	What will Xinyuan Zhou make?	manifold 2026-06-07	241_033 Few frontier AI companies will be in China Eric Schmidt	AI	47%
0.58	facebookresearch/detectron2 v0.5	github_release 2021-07-23	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.58	facebookresearch/detectron2 v0.2.1	github_release 2020-08-04	CMQ_044 Future data-center architectures optimized for agentic workflows may require 1:2 or even 2:1 CPU-to-GPU ratio (vs historical 1:12) to prevent GPU idle-waiting. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	65%
0.58	PaperFlow: Profiling, Recommending, and Adapting Across Daily Paper Streams	arxiv 2026-06-05	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.58	SS-TPT: Stability and Suitability-Guided Test-Time Prompt Tuning for Adversarially Robust Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.58	Covariance Shrinkage via Stochastic Interpolation	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.58	TabSwift: An Efficient Tabular Foundation Model with Row-Wise Attention	arxiv 2026-06-05	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.58	Lighting-Aware Representation Learning under Controllable Lighting Variation	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.58	Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.58	Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-21	229_004 By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.58	Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	US in control of Chagos Islands by end of 2028?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-06-08	246_013 Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. Peter Diamandis	Space	42%
0.58	SEMTECH CORP (SMTC) (CIK 0000088941)	edgar_8k 2026-06-08	CMQ_040 AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant global memory suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). Samsung executives	Semis/Memory	62%
0.58	FDA ANDA220724: ANDA220724 ((unspecified)) — ZYDUS PHARMACEUTICALS (USA) INC.	fda 2026-05-28	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	FDA ANDA078790: DIVALPROEX SODIUM (DIVALPROEX SODIUM) — LUPIN	fda 2026-05-28	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	FDA ANDA206228: ARSENIC TRIOXIDE (ARSENIC TRIOXIDE) — ZYDUS PHARMS	fda 2026-06-02	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Verdant - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.58	STERLING INFRASTRUCTURE, INC. (STRL) (CIK 0000874238)	edgar_8k 2026-06-09	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.58	Thresholded Local Hyper-Flow Diffusion	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.58	Generalized Rank-based Evaluation for Knowledge Graph Completion: Perspectives, Framework, and Analyses	arxiv 2026-06-08	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.58	Operator learning for the 2D incompressible Navier-Stokes equations: a conformal prediction approach in the data-scarce regime	arxiv 2026-06-07	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Titans-as-a-Layer: Test-Time Memory for Conversational Speech Emotion Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.58	Are Reasoning Vision-Language Models Robust to Semantic Visual Distractions?	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.58	Multilingual Fact-Checking at Scale: Fine-Tuned Compact Models vs LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.58	Dual Quaternion-Based Unscented Kalman Filter with Visual Inertial Odometry for Navigation in GPS-Denied Environments	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Dual Quaternion-Based Unscented Kalman Filter with Visual Inertial Odometry for Navigation in GPS-Denied Environments	arxiv 2026-06-08	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.58	FDA ANDA220866: ANDA220866 ((unspecified)) — HETERO LABS LIMITED	fda 2026-06-01	COD_AI_003 EU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin on 2026-08-02 without a blanket delay Codex Research Pack	Geopolitics	40%
0.58	Will Maxx Crosby play for Chicago Bears next?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	244_012 Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.58	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Israel Adesanya be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5)(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.58	Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.58	Will silver hit $60/oz by close on Friday?(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-06-10	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.58	Will Berkshire Hathaway outperform S&P 500 in June?(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-06-10	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	How many times will I go to the gym this week?	manifold 2026-06-10	242_005 Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day) Peter Diamandis	Space	49%
0.58	Improving Text-Instance Alignment Of Foreground Conditioned Out-Painting Via Customized Concept Embedding	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.58	A Unified Siamese Learning Framework for Zero-Day Anomaly Detection and Classification in Optical Networks	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.58	A Unified Siamese Learning Framework for Zero-Day Anomaly Detection and Classification in Optical Networks	arxiv 2026-06-09	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.58	Speech Meets ELF: Audio Conditional Continuous-Target Diffusion for Speech Recognition and Translation	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.58	From Context-Aware to Conflict-Aware: Generalizing Contrastive Decoding for Knowledge Conflict in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-09	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Linguistically Augmented Audio Speech Data (LinguAS)	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.58	Integral Field Unit Spectroscopy with One Fiber	arxiv 2026-06-08	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Closing the Modality Gap in Zero-Shot HAR: Contrastive Training and Separability-Optimized Prototypes on IMU Data	arxiv 2026-06-09	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.58	Secure Aggregation with Top-K Sparsification in Decentralized Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	SPACR: Single-Pass Adaptive Training of Uncertainty-Aware Conformal Regressors	arxiv 2026-06-09	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.58	Trace Only What You Need: Structure-Aware On-Demand Hypergraph Memory for Long-Document Question Answering	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Multilingual Word-Level Forced Alignment with Self-Supervised Representations and Learned Dynamic Programming	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.58	A Friendly Phantom: Late-time AdS-to-dS transition and cosmological tensions	arxiv 2026-06-09	238_072 Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days Emad Mostaque	AI	74%
0.58	FDA ANDA219395: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — SPECGX LLC	fda 2026-06-03	246_035 Terafab pilot phase is $25B, yielding ~$4B/year revenue for Intel. Peter Diamandis	AI	51%
0.58	FDA ANDA212990: LABETALOL HYDROCHLORIDE (LABETALOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — EPIC PHARMA LLC	fda 2026-06-08	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.58	FDA ANDA212990: LABETALOL HYDROCHLORIDE (LABETALOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — EPIC PHARMA LLC	fda 2026-06-08	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.58	facebookresearch/fastText v0.9.1	github_release 2019-07-04	237_002 We will see a lot of evolution and many OpenClaw variants emerging very quickly as an early domain being developed. Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.58	Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Spread: Spurs (-5.5)(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	How many more times will Trump publicly praise Allah in 2026?	manifold 2026-06-11	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.58	GENERAL ELECTRIC CO (GE) (CIK 0000040545)	edgar_8k 2026-06-11	240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.58	MSUE: Multi-Modal Soccer Understanding Expert	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.58	From Uniform to Learned Graph Priors: Diffusion for Structure Discovery	arxiv 2026-06-10	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.58	Ouroboros-Spatial: Closing the Data-Model Loop for Spatial Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-10	SPC_030 Eureka Labs vision: 'teacher + AI symbiosis' that scales human expertise infinitely — generating hyper-capable problem-solvers aligned with the space-colonization-workforce demand of the 2030s. Andrej Karpathy	Education	55%
0.58	ARGUS: Stacked Multi-View Identity Mosaic Injection for Subject-Preserving Video Generation	arxiv 2026-06-10	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	CRUMB: Efficient Prior Fitted Network Inference via Distributionally Matched Context Batching	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.58	A Riemannian Approach to Low-Rank Optimal Transport	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.58	HAMNO: A Hierarchical Adaptive Multi-scale Neural Operator with Physics-Informed Learning for Dynamical Systems	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.58	StanceNakba Shared Task: Actor and Topic-Aware Stance Detection in Public Discourse	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Deformable In-Hand Slip-Aware Tactile Sensor with Integrated Velocity, Force/Torque, and Pressure Map Sensing	arxiv 2026-06-10	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.58	FDA BLA761089: AJOVY (FREMANEZUMAB-VFRM) — TEVA PHARMS USA	fda 2026-06-05	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_data_odac-0.1.0	github_release 2026-04-21	234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead	AI	41%
0.58	United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.58	Game Handicap: KCB (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.58	United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5(market prob: 75%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Do you like 58% odds?(market prob: 59%)	manifold 2026-06-12	244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.58	Free Mana Part 4:All Answers resolves to NO (You can add answers in numerical form)	manifold 2026-06-12	241_008 AI research agents will be limited only by electricity, with potentially millions possible Eric Schmidt	AI	43%
0.58	Enovix Corp (ENVX) (CIK 0001828318)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	61%
0.58	MiniMax Sparse Attention	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.58	TimeROME-DLM: Temporal Causal Tracing and Low-Rank Inference-Time Knowledge Editing for Masked Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-11	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.58	Ride, Track, and Recover: Pilot Randomized Trial of a Wearable Digital Self-Management Intervention During a Veteran Endurance-Cycling Program	arxiv 2026-06-11	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.58	Physics-Informed Neural Networks and Radial Basis Functions for PDEs with Dirac Delta Sources	arxiv 2026-06-10	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.58	Computationally tractable robust differentially private mean estimation	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Estimating Individualized Treatment Effects in Acute Ischemic Stroke with Causal Transformation Models (TRAM-DAG): A Multi-Centre Observational Study with External RCT Validation	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.58	Beyond the Metric: Geometrical Measurability as a Constraint on Quantum Gravity	arxiv 2026-06-11	231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	23%
0.58	FDA ANDA219830: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — ORIENT PHARMA	fda 2026-06-09	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.58	LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI(market prob: 31%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will Noah Okafor be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	FDA ANDA204949: AZACITIDINE (AZACITIDINE) — PHARMOBEDIENT	fda 2026-06-09	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.58	FDA BLA761364: IMULDOSA (USTEKINUMAB-SRLF) — ACCORD BIOPHARMA INC.	fda 2026-06-05	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	facebookresearch/fairseq v0.8.0	github_release 2019-08-14	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.58	facebookresearch/fairseq v0.6.0	github_release 2018-09-26	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.58	LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.58	O/U 1.5 Rounds(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 87%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 34%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Will I win any prize in the next prize drawing (Drawing #30)(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-06-15	238_058 Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 years Salim Ismail	Macro/Economy	33%
0.58	PEABODY ENERGY CORP (BTU) (CIK 0001064728)	edgar_8k 2026-06-15	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	huggingface/transformers v5.10.3	github_release 2026-06-15	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.58	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.7.4	github_release 2023-05-10	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.58	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.6.1	github_release 2021-12-16	248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.58	Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 86%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs(market prob: 63%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.58	Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.58	Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	US-Iran deal text released by June 19? [Polymarket](market prob: 97%)	manifold 2026-06-16	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	DCP-Prune: Ultra-Low Token Pruning with Distribution Consistency Preservation	arxiv 2026-06-15	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.58	Model Graph Inductive Learning for Knowledge Graph Completion	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.58	Variance Reduction for Non-Log-Concave Sampling with Applications to Inverse Problems	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.58	Focus When Necessary: Adaptive Routing and Collaborative Grounding for Training-Free Visual Grounding	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.58	PROSE: Training-Free Egocentric Scene Registration with Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.58	MVOFormer: Flow-Semantic Transformer for Robust Monocular Visual Odometry	arxiv 2026-06-15	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.58	Friction Characterization of a Cable-Driven Differential Actuation System for Lower-Limb Exoskeletons	arxiv 2026-06-14	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.58	FDA ANDA204754: LEVETIRACETAM (LEVETIRACETAM) — AIPING PHARM INC	fda 2026-06-08	247_041 AI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	55%
0.58	FDA BLA761119: VYEPTI (EPTINEZUMAB-JJMR) — Lundbeck Seattle BioPharmaceuticals, Inc.	fda 2026-06-05	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.58	Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	ReAge3D: Re-Aging 3D Faces with View Consistency	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.58	Vision-language models for chest radiography do not always need the image	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.58	Another Look at Log-PCA for Probability Measures: A Dynamical Formulation and Statistical Convergence	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.58	ConSA: Controllable Sparsity in Hybrid Attention via Learnable Allocation	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.58	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-14	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.58	Will Fernando Tatis Jr. lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.58	Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	84%
0.58	scGTN: Deep Siamese Graph Transformer Network for Single-cell RNA Sequencing Clustering	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.58	JourneyFormer: Encoding Airbnb Guest Journey with Sequence Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.58	Seed-Guided Semi-Supervised Clustering by A-Contrario Anomaly Detection	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.58	Lost in a Single Vector: Improving Long-Document Retrieval with Chunk Evidence Aggregation	arxiv 2026-06-17	242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.58	Lost in a Single Vector: Improving Long-Document Retrieval with Chunk Evidence Aggregation	arxiv 2026-06-17	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.58	Motion-Focused Latent Action Enables Cross-Embodiment VLA Training from Human EgoVideos	arxiv 2026-06-17	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.58	Mutation and crossover of simplicial complexes	arxiv 2026-06-17	239_032 Progress in AI will continue as series of overlapping S-curves Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.58	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 2.1.3	github_release 2026-05-26	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.58	Will Sepp Straka win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.58	Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Max Clark win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.58	Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.58	Will Ralsei Transition by the end of Deltarune?	manifold 2026-06-18	246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.58	Interpretable Sperm Morphology Classification via Attention-Guided Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Triangular Consistency as a Universal Constraint for Learning Optical Flow	arxiv 2026-06-18	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.58	Adversarial Bandit Optimization with Globally Bounded Perturbations to Convex Losses	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.58	REDACT: A Systematically Controlled Multilingual Benchmark for Personal Information Detection	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.58	Fast Human Attention Prediction for Fixation-guided Active Perception in Autonomous Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.58	Many-body chirality of topological stabilizer states	arxiv 2026-06-18	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.58	Quantization of Brane-Skyrmions via Physics-Informed Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-18	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.58	Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Spread: Japan (-1.5)(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Brooklyn Nets in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-27	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.58	Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Spread: Ecuador (-3.5)(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Bradley Barcola be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.58	Spread: Algeria (-1.5)(market prob: 37%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam	Energy	45%
0.58	Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.58	Will a magnitude 8.0+ earthquake occur before September 1, 2026?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-06-21	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.58	Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-22	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-22	FUT_002 Mean expert estimate for AGI collapsed from 50-year horizon to ~5 years over a 4-year window leading to mid-2020s — placing expected AGI arrival firmly in 2029-2031 window per Metaculus + 80000 Hours aggregate tracking; quantitative forecasters now ali... Superforecaster Community	AI	40%
0.58	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2025-11-04	230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-12-10	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.58	Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.58	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-10	232_052 Lowered interest rates will drive AI agent and robot purchases instead of hiring. Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	46%
0.58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?(market prob: 80%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	43%
0.58	Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.58	Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.58	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Will Trump visit China by April 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-26	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.58	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	50%
0.58	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-03-06	242_037 China will land on the moon before end of 2030 China (government)	Space	46%
0.58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2025-07-24	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.58	Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Spread: Lightning (-1.5)(market prob: 36%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs SK Gaming (+1.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-21	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.58	Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-21	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.58	Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?(market prob: 65%)	polymarket 2026-03-26	SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk	AI/AGI	19%
0.58	Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	242_037 China will land on the moon before end of 2030 China (government)	Space	46%
0.58	Will a former pornstar become US president before China overtakes the US in GDP?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-04-29	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.58	Scientology Run Prop Bets [ADD ANSWERS]	manifold 2026-04-28	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Scientology Run Prop Bets [ADD ANSWERS]	manifold 2026-04-28	244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.58	Will "Quick Paper Review: "There Will Be a Scientif..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-28	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.58	Will "LessWrong Shows You Social Signals Before the..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-04-28	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.58	Will Labour announce a leadership election before [date]	manifold 2026-04-27	247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	46%
0.58	Correspondents Association dinner incident prop bets	manifold 2026-04-26	244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.58	When will Yao Ye beat me in Codeforces rating?	manifold 2026-04-25	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.58	Do the recent deaths/disappearances of NASA, nuclear research, & defense-related scientists suggest something sinister?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-04-24	231_008 AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.58	Will Corpus Christi "run out of water" by the end of 2030?(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-04-23	230_034 Abundance will be achieved by 2035. Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	41%
0.58	Will Corpus Christi "run out of water" by the end of 2030?(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-04-23	CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	84%
0.58	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.58	Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.58	Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.58	moelis mc q1 2026 earnings 021154258.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.58	article 6bc20232 6f49 545c ae2b 9e1e98ef7a59.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.58	anthropic wants a reset trump should think twice n4952343	gdelt 2026-04-30	238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	45%
0.58		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.58		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.58	2580647	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.58		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK07 Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)	—	18%
0.58	article ff5a51e4 cb44 57ae 895f 3260cfa2eede.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.58	article ff5a51e4 cb44 57ae 895f 3260cfa2eede.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.58	firstsun capital bancorp q1 2026 123000543.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	235_001 Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.58	article ca552487 4402 5a81 b6d9 dc82aa416d0a.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.58	us lawmakers warn china top space rival race moon intensifies	gdelt 2026-04-30	242_037 China will land on the moon before end of 2030 China (government)	Space	46%
0.58	ch robinson chrw q1 2026 232738016.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Stars vs. Wild(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.58	Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.58	Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.58	Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.58	Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.58	Scientology Run Prop Bets [ADD ANSWERS]	manifold 2026-04-30	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Scientology Run Prop Bets [ADD ANSWERS]	manifold 2026-04-30	244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.58	Will there be another Crank movie released by the end of 2030?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-04-25	229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock	Robotics	37%
0.58	MASTEC INC (MTZ) (CIK 0000015615)	edgar_8k 2026-04-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.58	Golden Knights vs. Utah(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Lightning vs. Canadiens(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.58	UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google	AI	46%
0.58	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2025-11-14	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.58	Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.58	Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.58	Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Will Android 17 be officially released to consumers by October 31, 2026?(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-05-01	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.58	Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-05-02?(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-04-05	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Netanyahu out by May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.58	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03?(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Will Malta win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-04	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	How many members will Reform UK have at the start of 2029?	manifold 2026-05-02	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.58	How much mana will be spent buying tickets for the first $100 draw?	manifold 2026-05-02	233_006 Cost of AI tokens per student ($10k/year) will come down by a factor of 10 and move on-device. Joe Liemandt	AI	38%
0.58	LoL: LYON vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.58	Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-22	242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.58	Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-22	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-22	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?(market prob: 81%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Days I'll create a market in May?	manifold 2026-05-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.58	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.58	76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.58	Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_048 Global data-center energy demand will reach approximately 945 Terawatt-hours by 2030 — a roughly 175% increase from 2023 levels — requiring complete grid overhauls in major markets. IEA	Energy	48%