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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.60	Where Does the Answer Come From? Benchmarking View-Level Visual Evidence Identification in Multi-View MLLMs for Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Overcoming Decoder Inconsistencies in Whisper for Dravidian and Low-Resource Languages	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.60	TruthSplit: Operationalizing Conditional Validity in Arguments Through Multi-Perspective Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_027 Ongoing 'reasoning boom' where scientific software development operates on a '20-80 human split' — AI handles 80% of cognitive labor, humans handle 20%, driving recursive self-improvement timelines toward the Singularity; fundamental inversion from hum... Eric Schmidt	Labor/Jobs	42%
0.60	Explicit Representation Alignment for Multimodal Sentiment Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.60	Physics-Aware Sparse Learning and Selective Online Adaptation for Euler-Lagrange Robot Dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Physics-Aware Sparse Learning and Selective Online Adaptation for Euler-Lagrange Robot Dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.60	KPGrasp: Scalable Keypoint Flow Matching for Dexterous Grasp Generation	arxiv 2026-06-08	229_038 Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent capital unlock). Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	23%
0.60	Dream-Tac: A Unified Tactile World Action Model for Contact-Rich Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-12-26	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.60	Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Will I reach a streak of 100 in Wordle?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-06-09	233_003 Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring. MacKenzie Price	Education	39%
0.60	FADA: Accessible fetal ultrasound interpretation and annotation with a selectively distilled unified vision-language model	arxiv 2026-06-09	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	What Do Deepfake Speech Detectors Actually Hear?	arxiv 2026-06-09	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.60	READER: Robust Evidence-based Authorship Decoding via Extracted Representations	arxiv 2026-06-09	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	LC-QAT: Data-Efficient 2-Bit QAT for LLMs via Linear-Constrained Vector Quantization	arxiv 2026-06-09	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	MoE Enhanced Federated Learning for Spatiotemporal Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	LakeQA: An Exploratory QA Benchmark over a Million-Scale Data Lake	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.60	LakeQA: An Exploratory QA Benchmark over a Million-Scale Data Lake	arxiv 2026-06-09	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.60	Supervised Fine-tuning with Synthetic Rationale Data Hurts Real-World Disease Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-09	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.60	Fisher-Guided Progressive Parameter Selection for Adaptive Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.60	Dropout-GRPO: Variational Stochasticity for Continuous Latent Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.60	Making Time Editable in Video Diffusion Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Algorithmic and Minimax Complexities in Kernel Bandits	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.60	Algorithmic and Minimax Complexities in Kernel Bandits	arxiv 2026-06-09	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.60	Range Penalization: Theoretical Insights with Applications in Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Range Penalization: Theoretical Insights with Applications in Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Near-Exponential Convergence Rates for kNN Classification based on Boltzmann Margin	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Revisiting Positive Samples in Graph Contrastive Learning: From the Perspective of Message Passing	arxiv 2026-06-09	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	Unsupervised Style Representation Learning for AI-Text Detection via Paraphrase Inversion	arxiv 2026-06-08	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	VFUSE: Virulent Feature Understanding with Sparse autoEncoders	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Selection, Not Salience: The Shape and Limits of Personalization in Social Highlighting	arxiv 2026-06-09	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	Multi-UAV Active Sensing with Information Gain-based Planning and Belief Fusion	arxiv 2026-06-09	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.60	Hawking--Page Universality, Thermodynamic Dipoles and Categorical Defects	arxiv 2026-06-09	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.60	Identical Bosons, large occupation numbers and classical field description	arxiv 2026-06-08	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Magic and entanglement in 1+1-dimensional SU(2) lattice gauge theory	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.60	Calling the Brane Next Door: The Kaluza-Klein Tower as a Gravitational Information Channel	arxiv 2026-06-08	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.60	facebookresearch/fastText v0.9.2	github_release 2020-04-28	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.60	Will Kyler Murray be traded?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-26	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	GENERAL ELECTRIC CO (GE) (CIK 0000040545)	edgar_8k 2026-06-11	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.60	ARGAN INC (AGX) (CIK 0000100591)	edgar_8k 2026-06-10	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.60	Illumination-Robust Camera-Based Heart-Rate Estimation for Physiological Sensing in Robots	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Atlas H&E-TME: Scalable AI-Based Tissue Profiling at Expert Pathologist-Level Accuracy	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Towards Data-free and Training-free Compression for Speech Foundation Models Using Parameter Clustering	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	MultiToP: Learning to Patch Visual Tokens to Mitigate Hallucinations in Video Large Multimodal Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.60	SirenFNO: Efficient and Full Frequency Learning of Fourier Neural Operators	arxiv 2026-06-09	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	Towards Fully Automated Exam Grading: Fairness-Aware Recognition of Handwritten Answers with Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.60	Re-evaluating Confidence Remasking in Masked Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.60	How Low Can You Go? Active Learning for Sparse Model Discovery in the Ultra-Low-Data Limit	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Urban Heat MiniCubes: An AI-Ready dataset for urban heat research	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Urban Heat MiniCubes: An AI-Ready dataset for urban heat research	arxiv 2026-06-10	INF_006 Over time, very large fractions of the earth's land surface will be given over to data centers as AI compute demand scales — hyperscaler DC footprint transitions from discrete campuses to regional-scale compute territories. Sam Altman	AI	40%
0.60	Spatially Masked Regression Reveals Local and Distributed Predictability in Electrophysiological Recordings	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Spatially Masked Regression Reveals Local and Distributed Predictability in Electrophysiological Recordings	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Spatially Masked Regression Reveals Local and Distributed Predictability in Electrophysiological Recordings	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	The Long Tail, Not the Front Page: Cold-Start Prediction of Crowd Highlight Salience	arxiv 2026-06-10	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.60	SOMA-SQL: Resolving Multi-Source Ambiguity in NL-to-SQL via Synthetic Log and Execution Probing	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	When More Documents Hurt RAG: Mitigating Vector Search Dilution with Domain-Scoped, Model-Agnostic Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-09	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.60	A Modular Dual-Camera Pipeline for Micro-Inspection Using Aerial Robots	arxiv 2026-06-09	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.60	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.21.0	github_release 2026-06-08	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.60	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.19.0	github_release 2026-03-26	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	30%
0.60	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.18.0	github_release 2026-03-16	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.60	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.15.0	github_release 2026-02-25	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.60	Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.60	Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.60	Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5)(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 12, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Contrast-Informed Augmentation and Domain-Adversarial Training for Adult-to-Neonatal MR Reconstruction Generalization	arxiv 2026-06-11	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.60	Physics-Guided Spatiotemporal Learning for Coastal Wave Peak Period Estimation from Video	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Augmentation techniques for video surveillance in the visible and thermal spectral range	arxiv 2026-06-11	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.60	OpenMedQ: Broad Open Pretraining for Medical Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-11	245_031 99% of synthetic biology focus will remain on human healthcare; similar tech applies more broadly Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	41%
0.60	Uncertainty Estimation for Molecular Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-06-11	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.60	Clustering Node Attributed Networks with Graph Neural Networks and Self Learning	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	ProtoX-AD: Self-Explainable Time Series Anomaly Detection and Characterization	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.60	Extracting Governing Equations from Latent Dynamics via Multi-View Contrastive Learning	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Layer-Resolved Optimal Transport for Hallucination Detection in NMT and Abstractive Summarization	arxiv 2026-06-11	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.60	Robust State-Conditional Feature-Weighted Jump Models for Temporal Clustering	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.60	An Extensible and Lightweight Unified Architecture for Demosaicing Pixel-bin Image Sensors	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Adaptive Weighted Averaging	arxiv 2026-06-11	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.60	Epistemic Uncertainty Is Not the Reducible Kind	arxiv 2026-06-10	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Policy-driven Conformal Prediction for Trustworthy QoT Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.60	Policy-driven Conformal Prediction for Trustworthy QoT Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-10	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.60	How Fine-Grained Should a RAG Benchmark Be? A Hierarchical Framework for Synthetic Question Generation	arxiv 2026-06-11	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.60	How Fine-Grained Should a RAG Benchmark Be? A Hierarchical Framework for Synthetic Question Generation	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	MultiToP: Learning to Patch Visual Tokens to Mitigate Hallucinations in Video Large Multimodal Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.60	The Long Tail, Not the Front Page: Cold-Start Prediction of Crowd Highlight Salience	arxiv 2026-06-10	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.60	Visual Place Recognition in Forests with Depth-Aware Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Subtraction of infrared divergences in light-quark QCD sum rules	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Will Tom Kim win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?(market prob: 34%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Spread: Argentina (-1.5)(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.60	Spread: Brazil (-4.5)(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.60	Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.60	Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.60	Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	How many people will LEXER have sex with in June of 2026?	manifold 2026-06-14	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.60	Will Fable be reenabled for Americans before Europeans?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-06-14	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.6.0	github_release 2021-10-06	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.5.0	github_release 2021-08-05	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.60	Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.60	Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.60	Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.60	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?(market prob: 81%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.60	Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Dual-Granularity Orthogonal Disentanglement for Generalizable Audio Deepfake Detection	arxiv 2026-06-15	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.60	Model Graph Inductive Learning for Knowledge Graph Completion	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Unified Multimodal Model for Brain MRI Imputation and Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	SpecAlign: Efficient Specification-Grounded Alignment of Large Language Models via Synthetic Data	arxiv 2026-06-15	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.60	TimeVista: Exploring and Exploiting Vision-Language Models as Judges for Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-15	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.60	KVEraser: Learning to Steer KV Cache for Efficient Localized Context Erasing	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Functional Gradient Descent with Adaptive Representations	arxiv 2026-06-15	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Cross-Silo De-Anonymization Under Local Differential Privacy: Threat Model, Phase Transition, and Coordination Necessity	arxiv 2026-06-15	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	Beyond Artifacts: Towards Generalizable Synthetic Song Detection via Music-Intrinsic Features	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Inference-Time Decision Calibration for Temporal Classification	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.60	Scaling Human and G2P Supervision for Robust Phonetic Transcription	arxiv 2026-06-14	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	An Exploratory Study of Blood Glucose Estimation from Photoplethysmography Signals using Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-06-14	231_021 Privacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and micro drones gathering data. Peter Diamandis	Consumer	59%
0.60	An Exploratory Study of Blood Glucose Estimation from Photoplethysmography Signals using Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-06-14	FUT_005 Emergence of 'Living Intelligence' 2026-2031: violent transformative convergence between biological science, silicon-based sensor networks, and algorithmic orchestration — biological cells programmed with same precision as silicon computers. Living cel... Amy Webb	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.60	SCAR: Semantic Continuity-Aware Retrieval for Efficient Context Expansion in RAG	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.60	FinBalance: A Multi-Document Accounting Reconciliation Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	ttda704 at SemEval-2026 Task 4: Modeling Narrative Structures via Pseudonymization and Multi-View Sentence Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	PolyMerge: Compressing 3D Gaussian Splats with Polytope Coverings for Provably Safe Resource-Constrained Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-15	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.60	Machine Learning Topological Order from Defect Partition Functions	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	FDA NDA016694: DEXTROSE 10% IN PLASTIC CONTAINER (DEXTROSE) — BAXTER HLTHCARE	fda 2026-06-11	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.60	Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?(market prob: 31%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.60	Spread: Canada (-1.5)(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.60	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Cuban regime falls in 2026?(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-03-10	CMQ_061 Cuban proposed issuance of a US government-backed memecoin specifically to help reduce the United States' ~$37 trillion national debt. Mark Cuban	Crypto	4%
0.60	SegDINO: Introducing Multi-Scale Structure into DINO for Efficient Medical Image Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Bounding Box Label Propagation for Re-Annotation of Document Layout Analysis Datasets	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Spatio-Temporal Fusion Model for Standard View Classification of Echocardiographic Videos	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.60	Rethinking Dataset Distillation for Classification: Do Distilled Sets Outperform Coresets?	arxiv 2026-06-16	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	A Convex Quasilinearization Method for Solving Nonlinear PDEs with Physics-Informed Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-16	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	VL-MemKnG: Hybrid Memory with a Spatio-Temporal Knowledge Graph for Question Answering over Long Egocentric Navigation Trajectories	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 89%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.60	Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.60	Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-06-18	S_RECESSION_2026 NBER recession declared 2026	macro_recession	20%
0.60	A Controlled Benchmark of Quantum-Latent GAN Augmentation for Brain MRI	arxiv 2026-06-17	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.60	A Controlled Benchmark of Quantum-Latent GAN Augmentation for Brain MRI	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	Generative-Model Predictive Planning for Navigation in Partially Observable Environments	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.60	Correcting Sensor-Induced Distribution Drift with Wasserstein Adversarial Learning	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.60	Correcting Sensor-Induced Distribution Drift with Wasserstein Adversarial Learning	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	Correcting Sensor-Induced Distribution Drift with Wasserstein Adversarial Learning	arxiv 2026-06-17	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.60	CaVe-VLM-CoT: An Interpretable Vision-Language Model Framework	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Acceleration of an algebraic multigrid pressure solver using graph neural networks	arxiv 2026-06-17	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.60	ChronoSurv: A Clinical Pathway-Guided Graph Framework for Multimodal Survival Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	ChronoSurv: A Clinical Pathway-Guided Graph Framework for Multimodal Survival Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-17	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.60	Concept Modulation Models: A Unified Framework for Identifiability and Extrapolation	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Concept Modulation Models: A Unified Framework for Identifiability and Extrapolation	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.60	RECOM: A Validity Discrimination Tradeoff in Automatic Metrics for Open Ended Reddit Question Answering	arxiv 2026-06-17	230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.60	Mitigating Scoring Errors and Compensating for Nonverbal Subtests in Speech-Based Dementia Assessment	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.60	ScholarSum: Student-Teacher Abstractive Summarization via Knowledge Graph Reasoning and Reflective Refinement	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Montreal Forced Aligner and the state of speech-to-text alignment in 2026	arxiv 2026-06-16	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	ART-VS: Adaptive Resolution Tiling for Vision Transformer Visual Servoing	arxiv 2026-06-17	240_021 Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	High-Degree-of-Freedom Lightweight Bioinspired Leg for Enhanced Mobility in Small Robots	arxiv 2026-06-17	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.60	Admittance-Based Surface Alignment for Human-in-the-Loop Robotic Visual Inspection	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_002 Despite raw agentic tool-use benchmarks tracking ahead of schedule, the enterprise reality involves significant operational friction — the 'integration schlep' — characterized by legacy software incompatibilities, rigid corporate bureaucracies, and per... Leopold Aschenbrenner	Macro/Economy	85%
0.60	The Landscape of Composite Higgs Models	arxiv 2026-06-16	229_045 Figure will not differentiate by vertical form factor—general-purpose humanoid is the bet. Brett Adcock	Robotics	28%
0.60	FDA BLA761105: SKYRIZI (RISANKIZUMAB-RZAA) — ABBVIE INC	fda 2026-06-12	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	facebookresearch/ProgramBench v1.1.0	github_release 2026-06-18	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.60	Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 94%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	SEM_003 Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Energy/Compute	86%
0.60	Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.60	Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail	Labor/Jobs	37%
0.60	Do you like 62% odds?(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-06-18	239_017 Future is 80%+ likely to be great Elon Musk	Other	50%
0.60	SARLO-80: Worldwide Slant SAR Language Optic Dataset 80cm	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	ELVA: Exploring Ranking-Driven Universal Multimodal Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.60	Evaluating and Enhancing Negation Comprehension in Remote Sensing MLLMs	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.60	Before the Labels: How Dataset Construction Shapes Suicidality Detection in Clinical Text	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.60	RIVET: Robust Idempotent Voice Attribute Editing	arxiv 2026-06-17	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.60	Shifting-based Optimizable Linear Relaxations for General Activation Functions	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.60	Optimal Coarse Correlated Equilibria in Mean Field Games: Linear Programming and No-Regret Learning	arxiv 2026-06-18	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.60	PU-UNet: Stable Multiplicative Interactions for Medical Image Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-18	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.60	PU-UNet: Stable Multiplicative Interactions for Medical Image Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	PU-UNet: Stable Multiplicative Interactions for Medical Image Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-18	INF_043 Unit cost of intelligence will drop at a rate far exceeding Moore's Law, driving explosive demand growth that filters out to edge devices and localized small models. Marc Andreessen	AI	47%
0.60	On the QUEST for Uncertainty Quantification via Highest Density Regions	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Understanding Key Features of Time Series Foundation Models from Epidemic Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-17	246_027 AI models will be capable enough for terrorist groups to create novel pathogens (near future). Sam Altman	AI	51%
0.60	StylisticBias: A Few Human Visual Cues Drive Most Social Biases in MLLMs	arxiv 2026-06-18	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.60	NEST: Narrative Event Structures in Time for Long Video Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-18	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.60	Code-Switching Reveals Language Anchoring in Multilingual LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-18	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	Evaluation of Augmented Reality-based Intuitive Interface for Robot-Assisted Transesophageal Echocardiography: A User Study	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_027 Integration of AI with advanced bio-sensing, quantum computing, and genomics enables humanity to achieve 'Longevity Escape Velocity' — tipping point where medical technology extends human lifespan faster than time passes; continuous biological surveill... Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	21%
0.60	One Demo is Worth a Thousand Trajectories: Action-View Augmentation for Visuomotor Policies	arxiv 2026-06-17	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.60	Real and Virtual Propagation in Neutrino Oscillations	arxiv 2026-06-17	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.60	Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.60	Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Starmer out by June 26, 2026?(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Starmer out by October 31, 2026?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail	Labor/Jobs	37%
0.60	Will Elon musk live to see humanity become a Kardashev 3 civilization?(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-06-19	231_046 Over the next 10 years humanity will live through top 50 science fiction plots simultaneously. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.60	Will Elon musk live to see humanity become a Kardashev 3 civilization?(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-06-19	240_040 Elon: economy will grow 1000x to saturate all human desire Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	38%
0.60	facebookresearch/spdl v0.5.0	github_release 2026-06-12	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.60	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-03-30	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.60	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-25	FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam	Energy	45%
0.60	Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.60	Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	234_043 Harvard or MIT IPO could triple or quadruple their underlying book value Alex Wissner-Gross	Education	35%
0.60	Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	35%
0.60	Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	35%
0.60	Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	35%
0.60	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	35%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-30	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.60	Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs SK Gaming (+1.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.60	Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.60	What percentage uptime will the Unofficial GitHub Status Page show for the last 90 Days on May 31st, 2026?	manifold 2026-04-29	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.60	Result of MrBeast red/blue button poll?	manifold 2026-04-28	248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail	Robotics	34%
0.60	Will I receive my manifold markets t-shirt?(market prob: 94%)	manifold 2026-04-24	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.60	dow jones top company headlines at 9 pm et softbank plots ipo for new robotics venture google	gdelt 2026-04-30	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.60	alphabet supera expectativas de vendas com forca do google cloud e clientes de inteligencia artificial.ghtml	gdelt 2026-04-30	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.60		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK07 Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)	—	18%
0.60	bitcoin bestaende elon musks vater enthuellt ueberraschende bitcoin bestaende der familie 00 15640043	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.60	view?ud=2026043010000247039	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.60	202604300928049995	gdelt 2026-04-30	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.60	2026042918071534687	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.60		gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.60	gorilla technology yotta expand india ai infrastructure collaboration in project valued at approximately us2 8 billion	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_018 By 2027-2028, the strategic value of superintelligence + impossible trillion-dollar infrastructure cost will trigger government consolidation of AGI development — 'The Project'. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Geopolitics	35%
0.60		gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.60	solaris energy infrastructure inc q1 123000690.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.60	nucor corporation q1 2026 earnings 123000521.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	35%
0.60	Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Xi Jinping out by June 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-17	238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	45%
0.60	Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.60	Spread: Celtics (-6.5)(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	243_001 Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.60	Will the US average gas price fall below $4.00 in May 2026?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60	Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. (NTLA) (CIK 0001652130)	edgar_8k 2026-04-30	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.60	Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	230_010 Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have to stop somewhere due to antitrust. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.60	Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.60	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2025-12-01	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?(market prob: 85%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	Will Brent Crude Oil close above $115 on May 8th, 2026?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60	Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	What award will I get at the 2026 AMM?	manifold 2026-05-03	AUT_024 H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int... Morgan Stanley	AI	42%
0.60	Will "Takes from two months as an aspiring LLM natu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-04-29	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.60	Cavaliers vs. Pistons(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	When will Starship flight 14 happen?	manifold 2026-05-04	242_038 Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starship Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	35%
0.60	When will Starship flight 14 happen?	manifold 2026-05-04	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.60	Will Indonesia's commissioned alumina refinery capacity exceed 15 Mt/yr on December 31, 2027?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-04	CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	84%
0.60	Will China's alumina production for calendar year 2027 exceed 85 million tonnes?(market prob: 83%)	manifold 2026-05-04	CMQ_018 By 2027-2028, the strategic value of superintelligence + impossible trillion-dollar infrastructure cost will trigger government consolidation of AGI development — 'The Project'. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Geopolitics	35%
0.60	Price of Apple M5 Ultra Studio 512gb on Release in 2026	manifold 2026-05-04	238_039 Apple's underused unified memory overhang will likely collapse within the next year Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	36%
0.60	This market resolves to what the opposite of the different one (resolves at the opposite as me) Calendar Rotation Year!(market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-05-04	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	This market resolves to what the opposite of the different one (resolves at the opposite as me) Calendar Rotation Year!(market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-05-04	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.60	Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60	Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.60	Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	CMQ_053 Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-labor shortages in automotive manufacturing. Brett Adcock	Robotics	55%
0.60	Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.60	My current relationship lasts >6 months (1 Jan to 1 Jul 2026)(market prob: 75%)	manifold 2026-05-05	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.60	Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-05-04	FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Energy	39%
0.60	Am I worthy of moral consideration [Convince the Machine #5](market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-05-04	240_052 Uploading consciousness (whole brain emulation) really will be you in the future Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	41%
0.60	FDA ANDA076781: ONDANSETRON HYDROCHLORIDE (ONDANSETRON HYDROCHLORIDE) — HIKMA FARMACEUTICA	fda 2026-04-08	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	openai/openai-python v2.30.0	github_release 2026-03-25	242_044 Base AI models becoming commodity; value migrates up the stack Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	openai/openai-python v2.17.0	github_release 2026-02-05	238_025 AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level Emad Mostaque	AI	45%
0.60	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.1.1	github_release 2021-11-05	230_031 We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across many fields starting now. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.60	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.0.0	github_release 2021-07-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.18.1	github_release 2025-03-11	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.60	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.14.0-rc1	github_release 2023-08-31	CMQ_030 In the modern AI pipeline, the CPU no longer merely supports the model — it drives the model (agentic workloads invert historical CPU:GPU ratio). Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	34%
0.60	1x-technologies/halodi-controller-simulation-api 0.1.11	github_release 2021-04-28	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.60	Spread: Spurs (-9.5)(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.60	Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-10?(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.60	Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	CMQ_053 Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-labor shortages in automotive manufacturing. Brett Adcock	Robotics	55%
0.60	Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	246_030 DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.60	TabSurv: Adapting Modern Tabular Neural Networks to Survival Analysis	arxiv 2026-05-05	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.60	Quantifying the human visual exposome with vision language models	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Disentangling Shared and Task-Specific Representations from Multi-Modal Clinical Data	arxiv 2026-05-05	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.60	MHPR: Multidimensional Human Perception and Reasoning Benchmark for Large Vision-Languate Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	GeoDecider: A Coarse-to-Fine Agentic Workflow for Explainable Lithology Classification	arxiv 2026-05-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	ReasonAudio: A Benchmark for Evaluating Reasoning Beyond Matching in Text-Audio Retrieval	arxiv 2026-05-05	240_014 Cost of reasoning models has dropped 1,000x in 16 months Sam Altman	AI	50%
0.60	Copula-Based Endogeneity Correction for Doubly Robust Estimation of Treatment Effect	arxiv 2026-05-05	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	PIIGuard: Mitigating PII Harvesting under Adversarial Sanitization	arxiv 2026-05-04	AI_028 Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey's launch of Bitchat — will become critical infrastructure for verifiable human communication as the internet is flooded with synthetic content and deep... Jack Dorsey	Crypto	28%
0.60	Fuzzy Fingerprinting Encoder Pre-trained Language Models for Emotion Recognition in Conversations: Human Assessment and Validity Study	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.60	Enhanced 3D Brain Tumor Segmentation Using Assorted Precision Training	arxiv 2026-05-05	242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.60	Optimal Posterior Sampling for Policy Identification in Tabular Markov Decision Processes	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.60	Ecologically-Constrained Task Arithmetic for Multi-Taxa Bioacoustic Classifiers Without Shared Data	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Uni-OPD: Unifying On-Policy Distillation with a Dual-Perspective Recipe	arxiv 2026-05-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Exact and Approximate Algorithms for Polytree Learning	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.60	Adaptive graph-based algorithms for conditional anomaly detection and semi-supervised learning	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Adaptive graph-based algorithms for conditional anomaly detection and semi-supervised learning	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Partial Effective Information Decomposition for Synergistic Causality	arxiv 2026-05-05	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.60	Partial Effective Information Decomposition for Synergistic Causality	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.60	TCD-Arena: Assessing Robustness of Time Series Causal Discovery Methods Against Assumption Violations	arxiv 2026-05-04	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.60	Random-Effects Algorithm for Random Objects in Metric Spaces	arxiv 2026-05-04	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	Pretraining on Sleep Data Improves non-Sleep Biosignal Tasks	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Retrieving Floods without Floodlights: Topic Models as Binary Classifiers for Extreme Climate Events in German News	arxiv 2026-05-05	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Geolocating News about Extreme Climate Events: A Comparative Analysis of Off-the-Shelf Tools for Toponym Identification in German	arxiv 2026-05-05	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	Shadow-Loom: Causal Reasoning over Graphical World Model of Narratives	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Hyp2Former: Hierarchy-Aware Hyperbolic Embeddings for Open-Set Panoptic Segmentation	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Strong Locality as a Tetrahedron: A Symmetry-Reduced Geometric Representation of the (3,3,2,2) Bell Scenario	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	The free energy limit of the SYK model at high temperature	arxiv 2026-05-04	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.60	FDA ANDA214957: GABAPENTIN (GABAPENTIN) — ASCENT PHARMS INC	fda 2026-04-28	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	FDA NDA215833: PLUVICTO (LUTETIUM LU-177 VIPIVOTIDE TETRAXETAN) — NOVARTIS	fda 2026-04-07	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	Will I break a bone before the end of 2027?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-05-07	230_025 The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century. Peter Diamandis	AI	52%
0.60	Will I break a bone before the end of 2027?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-05-07	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.60	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30? [Polymarket](market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-05-07	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.60	Will I attend Manifest 2026?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-05-07	241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.60	What award will I get at the 2026 AMM?	manifold 2026-05-07	AUT_024 H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int... Morgan Stanley	AI	42%
0.60	The First Token Knows: Single-Decode Confidence for Hallucination Detection	arxiv 2026-05-06	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Sparse Tokens Suffice: Jailbreaking Audio Language Models via Token-Aware Gradient Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-06	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.60	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.3.4	github_release 2026-05-07	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.60	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.28.post3	github_release 2024-10-30	CMQ_044 Future data-center architectures optimized for agentic workflows may require 1:2 or even 2:1 CPU-to-GPU ratio (vs historical 1:12) to prevent GPU idle-waiting. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	65%
0.60	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.27	github_release 2024-07-09	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.60	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.23.post1	github_release 2023-12-15	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.60	Canadiens vs. Sabres(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Counter-Strike: Favbet vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group Stage(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.60	Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.60	Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.60	Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Who will become president first?	manifold 2026-05-07	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.60	Flow Matching with Arbitrary Auxiliary Paths	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Proactive Instance Navigation with Comparative Judgment for Ambiguous User Queries	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.60	EA-WM: Event-Aware Generative World Model with Structured Kinematic-to-Visual Action Fields	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_021 Uncontrolled recursive self-improvement by AGI requires vast uninterrupted physical infrastructure, flawless power grids, perfect global supply chains for advanced semiconductors. In Zeihan-Bremmer world (severe demographic labor shortages, fragmented ... Superforecaster Community	AI	46%
0.60	Event-Causal RAG: A Retrieval-Augmented Generation Framework for Long Video Reasoning in Complex Scenarios	arxiv 2026-05-07	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.60	CrossCult-KIBench: A Benchmark for Cross-Cultural Knowledge Insertion in MLLMs	arxiv 2026-05-07	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.60	CrossCult-KIBench: A Benchmark for Cross-Cultural Knowledge Insertion in MLLMs	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.60	Shallow Prefill, Deep Decoding: Efficient Long-Context Inference via Layer-Asymmetric KV Visibility	arxiv 2026-05-07	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.60	Optimal Transport for LLM Reward Modeling from Noisy Preference	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.60	PREFER: Personalized Review Summarization with Online Preference Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	DARTS: Targeting Prognostic Covariates in Budget-Constrained Sequential Experiments	arxiv 2026-05-07	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.60	Distributionally-Robust Learning to Optimize	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Dynamic Controlled Variables Based Dynamic Self-Optimizing Control	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	FedFrozen: Two-Stage Federated Optimization via Attention Kernel Freezing	arxiv 2026-05-07	238_038 Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	FedFrozen: Two-Stage Federated Optimization via Attention Kernel Freezing	arxiv 2026-05-07	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Decoupled PFNs: Identifiable Epistemic-Aleatoric Decomposition via Structured Synthetic Priors	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.60	Eliciting associations between clinical variables from LLMs via comparison questions across populations	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.60	LatentRAG: Latent Reasoning and Retrieval for Efficient Agentic RAG	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	INEUS: Iterative Neural Solver for High-Dimensional PIDEs	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Beyond Rigid Alignment: Graph Federated Learning via Dual Manifold Calibration	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	When Graph Language Models Go Beyond Memorization	arxiv 2026-05-07	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.60	PRISM: Iterative Cross-Modal Posterior Refinement for Dynamic Text-Attributed Graphs	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	Efficient Pre-Training with Token Superposition	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Lightweight Stylistic Consistency Profiling: Robust Detection of LLM-Generated Textual Content for Multimedia Moderation	arxiv 2026-05-07	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	Generating Query-Focused Summarization Datasets from Query-Free Summarization Datasets	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Particle Production and Krylov Complexity of Circular Strings Near Black Hole Horizons	arxiv 2026-05-05	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	FDA NDA021342: LEVO-T (LEVOTHYROXINE SODIUM) — CEDIPROF INC	fda 2026-05-04	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	Hentavirus pandemic in 2026?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-05-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Spread: Spurs (-5.5)(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will OMIE Spain 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed €60/MWh?(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-04	247_009 Anthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026 Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?(market prob: 79%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. (NTLA) (CIK 0001652130)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.60	facebookresearch/spdl v0.2.0	github_release 2026-01-07	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.60	facebookresearch/spdl v0.1.4	github_release 2025-09-10	237_002 We will see a lot of evolution and many OpenClaw variants emerging very quickly as an early domain being developed. Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.60	facebookresearch/spdl v0.0.13	github_release 2025-05-02	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.60	facebookresearch/spdl v0.0.9	github_release 2025-03-05	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.60	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-03	237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn	Crypto	43%
0.60	US Gas Price average for 13 May 2026?	manifold 2026-05-12	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	35%
0.60	Will Duolingo launch a public Toki Pona course by the end of 2027?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-12	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.60	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 3⅖(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-12	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.60	Will SPY close above $737.62 on Friday, May 15, 2026?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-05-12	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.60	Will the USD to IDR rate reach IDR 17,845 before 17th August 2026?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-12	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.60	ON SEMICONDUCTOR CORP (ON) (CIK 0001097864)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang	Policy/Semis	66%
0.60	FDA ANDA216081: GADOBUTROL (GADOBUTROL) — HENGRUI PHARMA	fda 2026-05-01	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-05-29?(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will this coordination-metrics market get at least 3 unique traders in its first 24 hours?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-05-13	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.60	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? [Polymarket](market prob: 1%)	manifold 2026-05-13	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	EHR-RAGp: Retrieval-Augmented Prototype-Guided Foundation Model for Electronic Health Records	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.60	Approximation Theory of Laplacian-Based Neural Operators for Reaction-Diffusion System	arxiv 2026-05-12	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.60	Approximation Theory of Laplacian-Based Neural Operators for Reaction-Diffusion System	arxiv 2026-05-12	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.60	LOFT: Low-Rank Orthogonal Fine-Tuning via Task-Aware Support Selection	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	Federated Client Selection under Partial Visibility: A POMDP Approach with Spatio-Temporal Attention	arxiv 2026-05-12	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.60	Learning Feature Encoder with Synthetic Anomalies for Weakly Supervised Graph Anomaly Detection	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	EpiCastBench: Datasets and Benchmarks for Multivariate Epidemic Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-12	232_044 There will be police agents, defense agents, and public health agents monitoring rogue AI agents via defensive co-scaling. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.60	MICROSOFT CORP (MSFT) (CIK 0000789019)	edgar_8k 2026-05-14	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60	MILM: Large Language Models for Multimodal Irregular Time Series with Informative Sampling	arxiv 2026-05-13	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.60	Multi-Objective and Mixed-Reward Reinforcement Learning via Reward-Decorrelated Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.60	Stylized Text-to-Motion Generation via Hypernetwork-Driven Low-Rank Adaptation	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback	arxiv 2026-05-13	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.60	McCast: Memory-Guided Latent Drift Correction for Long-Horizon Precipitation Nowcasting	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	U-HNO: A U-shaped Hybrid Neural Operator with Sparse-Point Adaptive Routing for Non-stationary PDE Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-13	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	FDA NDA219835: VEPPANU (VEPDEGESTRANT) — ARVINAS OPERATIONS	fda 2026-05-01	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-01-07	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.60	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-01-07	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.60	Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.60	Will SD Eibar win on 2026-05-16?(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Will CISA add at least 25 vulnerabilities to the KEV catalog in May 2026?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-05-14	235_023 Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis. Eric Schmidt	Energy	48%
0.60	Sidus Space Inc. (SIDU) (CIK 0001879726)	edgar_8k 2026-05-15	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	CoCo-InEKF: State Estimation with Learned Contact Covariances in Dynamic, Contact-Rich Scenarios	arxiv 2026-05-14	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.60	Distance-Matrix Wasserstein Statistics for Scalable Gromov--Wasserstein Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Road Maps as Free Geometric Priors: Weather-Invariant Drone Geo-Localization with GeoFuse	arxiv 2026-05-14	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.60	A Non-Monotone Preconditioned Trust-Region Method for Neural Network Training	arxiv 2026-05-14	248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.60	Mining Subscenario Refactoring Opportunities in Behaviour-Driven Software Test Suites: ML Classifiers and LLM-Judge Baselines	arxiv 2026-05-14	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	SeesawNet: Towards Non-stationary Time Series Forecasting with Balanced Modeling of Common and Specific Dependencies	arxiv 2026-05-14	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.60	What if Tomorrow is the World Cup Final? Counterfactual Time Series Forecasting with Textual Conditions	arxiv 2026-05-14	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.60	Beyond Binary: Reframing GUI Critique as Continuous Semantic Alignment	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	TILT: Target-induced loss tilting under covariate shift	arxiv 2026-05-14	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	On the Burden of Achieving Fairness in Conformal Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-14	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	DT-Transformer: A Foundation Model for Disease Trajectory Prediction on a Real-world Health System	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_027 Integration of AI with advanced bio-sensing, quantum computing, and genomics enables humanity to achieve 'Longevity Escape Velocity' — tipping point where medical technology extends human lifespan faster than time passes; continuous biological surveill... Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	21%
0.60	Finite Sample Bounds for Learning with Score Matching	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.60	bde: A Python Package for Bayesian Deep Ensembles via MILE	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.60	FDA ANDA219494: SPIRONOLACTONE (SPIRONOLACTONE) — GRAVITI PHARMS	fda 2026-05-12	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.60	Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	How low will the Marathon World Record go before the end of 2026?	manifold 2026-05-16	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.60	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? (market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-17	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Final (TBD beats TBD)(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-17	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.60	Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.60	Will Biden, Trump, Putin, or Xi die last?	manifold 2026-05-18	232_020 Real danger that US slows AI enough to fall behind China, losing control over societal outcomes. Ben Horowitz	Geopolitics	48%
0.60	Do you like 2% odds?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-05-18	242_032 AI will do the job for 2% of the cost of a human in the near term Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.60	Xylem Inc. (XYL) (CIK 0001524472)	edgar_8k 2026-05-18	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60	ON SEMICONDUCTOR CORP (ON) (CIK 0001097864)	edgar_8k 2026-05-18	SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang	Policy/Semis	66%
0.60	Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.60	Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-23?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.60	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24?(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Will Solana reach $170 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.60	Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan	Macro/Economy	72%
0.60	Any new Veo model released during Google I/O(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-05-18	COD_AI_001 Vera Rubin becomes commercially available across major cloud and OEM partners by H2 2026 Codex Research Pack	Technology	51%
0.60	Learned Memory Attenuation in Sage-Husa Kalman Filters for Robust UAV State Estimation	arxiv 2026-05-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Federated Martingale Posterior Samping	arxiv 2026-05-18	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	Flowing with Confidence	arxiv 2026-05-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Robust Player-Conditional Champion Ranking for League of Legends: Style Similarity, Mastery Priors, and Archetype-Constrained Discovery	arxiv 2026-05-18	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	pyforce-1.0.0: Python Framework for data-driven model Order Reduction of multi-physiCs problEms	arxiv 2026-05-18	CYB_030 Deploying agentic processing capabilities directly into orbit via the Vera Rubin Space-1 Module eliminates terrestrial data-routing bottlenecks but introduces extreme engineering challenges — dissipating computational heat purely through thermal radiat... Jensen Huang	Space	33%
0.60	FedSDR: Federated Self-Distillation with Rectification	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	Balancing Knowledge Distillation for Imbalance Learning with Bilevel Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.60	Uncertainty-Calibrated Recommendations for Low-Active Users	arxiv 2026-05-18	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Exact Convex Reformulations of Linear Neural Networks via Completely Positive Lifting	arxiv 2026-05-17	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.60	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-20	238_026 Every attempt to pause frontier AI capabilities ends up being a net accelerant Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	44%
0.60	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.60	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.60	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 79%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.60	What will the MSRP of the Flipper One?	manifold 2026-05-28	242_020 Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K Elon Musk	Auto/Transport	31%
0.60	Will any nobel laureate donate their brain to https://bexorg.com/ by eoy2039?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-05-28	248_044 Alex: likely user ~1 million of a BCI implant (not 101) once upgradeable. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	39%
0.60	On which dates will you get a 20 mana trader bonus for a 1000 mana market?	manifold 2026-05-26	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Who will advance from the Washington 9th Blanket Primary?	manifold 2026-05-26	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.60	9984.T (SoftBank Group Corp.) over 10,000 by Thursday 11 June, 2026?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-25	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.60	Starmer out before October?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-05-24	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60	Xylem Inc. (XYL) (CIK 0001524472)	edgar_8k 2026-05-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60	MIRA: Mid-training Rubric Anchoring for Source-Aware Data Selection	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.60	Accelerating Constrained Decoding with Token Space Compression	arxiv 2026-05-28	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	CB-SLICE: Concept-Based Interpretable Error Slice Discovery	arxiv 2026-05-28	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	Harnessing non-adversarial robustness in large language models	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	COMET: Concept Space Dissection of the Modality Gap in Audio-Text Multimodal Contrastive Embeddings	arxiv 2026-05-28	232_011 Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.60	Xetrieval: Mechanistically Explaining Dense Retrieval	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.60	Statistical Embeddings for Similarity, Retrieval, and Interpretable Alignment of Numeric Tabular Datasets	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	MoSSP: A Momentum-Based Single-Loop Stochastic Penalty Method for Nonconvex Constrained DC-Regularized Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-28	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.60	GDSD: Reinforcement Learning as Guided Denoiser Self-Distillation for Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	TRACER: Persistent Regularization for Robust Multimodal Finetuning	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Kernel-based potential mean-field games with unbiased random Fourier $U$-statistics	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_016 The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an AI experience curve enables bulk problem-solving across engineering, medicine, and mathematics at a fraction of historical compute costs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	82%
0.60	LoopFM: Learning frOm HistOrical RePresentations of Foundation Model for Recommendation	arxiv 2026-05-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Comparative Evaluation of Machine Translation Systems on Images with Text	arxiv 2026-05-28	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	ReasonOps: Operator Segmentation for LLM Reasoning Traces	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	From General Vision to Reliable Traversability Estimation: Adapting Vision Foundation Models for Unstructured Outdoor Environments	arxiv 2026-05-28	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.60	FDA ANDA209224: LACOSAMIDE (LACOSAMIDE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-05-22	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.60	FDA BLA761111: NYVEPRIA (PEGFILGRASTIM-APGF) — HOSPIRA INC	fda 2026-05-21	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.60	Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	FDA NDA204114: MEKINIST (TRAMETINIB DIMETHYL SULFOXIDE) — NOVARTIS	fda 2026-05-07	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	FDA ANDA208028: LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE (LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — INVAGEN PHARMS	fda 2026-05-15	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%