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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.60 | Will Terminator2 earn more profit than ShogGoth over the next month?(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 236_047 New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 55% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | ||
| 0.60 | Will there be 100+ HackerNews stories posted in 24h?(market prob: 98%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 38% | ||
| 0.60 | before 2035, will anyone give a UN speech in toki pona?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.60 | Will I successfully refer someone for Ṁ1,000?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | 248_044 Alex: likely user ~1 million of a BCI implant (not 101) once upgradeable. Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 39% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-28 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 248_012 AI incidents documented harms will go up way higher beyond the already-reported rise. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-31 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | ||
| 0.60 | US Gas Price $3.800 or below in June 2026?(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.60 | Will Berkshire Hathaway buy back shares in q2 2026?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.60 | Resolves to floor(sqrt(traders)) mod 2(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.60 | Will this market get between 75-150 unique traders?(market prob: 61%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.60 | Will someone send me 1000 or more mana before this market closes?(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | ||
| 0.60 | Will I score higher than 1500 on the June 6th SAT?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.60 | can you just balenciaga it? Before 2027(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.60 | U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | INF_037 An all-out AI arms race between the US and China is inevitable — reaching superintelligence first provides a decisive unassailable economic and military advantage, analogous to early nuclear primacy. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Geopolitics | 58% | |
| 0.60 | Will a Claude Fable model be released Tuesday June 9th?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick | Robotics | 42% | |
| 0.60 | Will silver hit $60/oz by close on Friday?(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 32% | ||
| 0.60 | Do you like 4% odds?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 239_017 Future is 80%+ likely to be great Elon Musk | Other | 50% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.60 | Will ICE be renamed as NICE in 2026?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-04-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-04-25 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | ||
| 0.60 | Will US average gas price reach $4.500 in May 2026?(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-02 | CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley | AI/Compute | 35% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Vic NEM 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$115/MWh?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley | Energy | 47% | |
| 0.60 | Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz on any week in 2026?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-04 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.60 | Do you like 96% odds?(market prob: 96%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 239_017 Future is 80%+ likely to be great Elon Musk | Other | 50% | |
| 0.60 | Do you like 96% odds?(market prob: 96%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 247_013 99% of randomly selected white collar jobs could be replaced by AI today Peter Dannenberg | Labor/Jobs | 22% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.60 | Will the US average gas price hit $5 per gallon in May 2026?(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 241_021 America can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildout Eric Schmidt | Markets/Stocks | 47% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_014 Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 42% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.60 | US Gas Price hits $4(NO) or $5(YES) Next?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-08 | IND_011 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... Jason Calacanis | Macro/Economy | 58% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.60 | Will OMIE Spain 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed €60/MWh?(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 234_037 Civilizational left turns will hit us in the next 1-2 years Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 42% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-11 | S_RECESSION_2027 NBER recession declared 2027 | macro_recession | 30% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 232_059 Universal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on capital side of ledger. Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 34% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-11 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-12 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-13 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-13 | 234_032 Market for humanoids and general purpose automation will be $50 trillion Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 29% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-13 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 43% | ||
| 0.60 | will there be a major linux virus in 2026?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.60 | Will Hantavirus become a pandemic in 2026?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Hantavirus become a pandemic in 2026?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.60 | before 2035, will anyone give a UN speech in toki pona?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-18 | COD_AI_001 Vera Rubin becomes commercially available across major cloud and OEM partners by H2 2026 Codex Research Pack | Technology | 51% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-25 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 15% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-25 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.60 | 9984.T (SoftBank Group Corp.) over 10,000 by Thursday 11 June, 2026?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | 236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 53% | |
| 0.60 | Will GTA VI sell more than 50 million copies by the end of 2027?(market prob: 91%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | 242_058 Cybercab owners will generate revenue via autonomous ridesharing fleets Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 51% | |
| 0.60 | US Gas Price $4.100 or below in June 2026?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Nathan (NotARoomba) say 67 before 8th Jun(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.60 | Will the Jones Act be in effect for more than half of 2027?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 234_034 Andrew Yang predicts 20-50% of 70M US white collar workers could be displaced in 1-2 years Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 45% | |
| 0.60 | Will the Jones Act be in effect for more than half of 2027?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.60 | can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | 237_025 We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. Peter Diamandis | AI | 59% | |
| 0.60 | can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Demis Hassabis also win a Nobel Prize in Medicine?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 234_005 Demis Hassabis predicts AGI will have 10x industrial revolution impact at 10x speed, unfolding over a decade Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.60 | Will I be promoted to platinum at the end of this season?(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.60 | Will I resolve this as yes or no?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | 241_013 Agents from incompatible vendors combined will produce unpredictable effects Eric Schmidt | AI | 45% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 246_039 Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 49% | ||
| 0.60 | Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $94 on June 20, 2026?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | AUT_024 H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int... Morgan Stanley | AI | 49% | |
| 0.60 | Will June 2026 headline PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | 236_034 Rapid inflation in near-term from UBI money printing, then rapid deflation from AI/robotics Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 43% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Poland surpass the UK in GDP per capita by PPP prior to 2035?(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei | AI | 41% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-04-24 | ROB_024 Automated robotics and AI-powered monitoring will establish a global network of BioVaults — a 21st-century high-tech backup plan for life on Earth; as humanity faces potential extinction of nearly half of Earth's species by 2050 due to climate and habi... Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | ||
| 0.60 | Will I win the main prize in this (second) prize drawing?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.60 | Will Monero trade below $300 during May?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 229_022 Figure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing end-to-end home work during 2026. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 38% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 240_035 Meta secured 6.6 GW of clean nuclear power for 2035 Meta | Energy | 46% | ||
| 0.60 | Will US average gas price reach $4.500 in May 2026?(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-01 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.60 | Will MNX hire a backend developer before Manifest?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | SEM_036 World-class AI programmers will appear within 1-2 years (by 2027-2028). Eric Schmidt | AI/Cognition | 70% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.60 | Will OMIE Spain 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed €65/MWh?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley | Energy | 47% | |
| 0.60 | Will Vic NEM 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$115/MWh?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 246_041 Data centers will drive local electricity costs toward zero within ~5 years. Alex Wissner-Gross | Energy | 38% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.60 | Will GameStop buy / aquire eBay until end of 2026?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 229_008 By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). Brett Adcock | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | |
| 0.60 | Will Intel trade below $94 in May?(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will this market appear on a mug?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 230_037 Handmade/human art will be astronomically more valuable in the future. Dave Blundin | Consumer | 50% | |
| 0.60 | Will abhishaike mahajan ever win the nobel prize?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 238_012 OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes Kevin Weil | AI | 38% | |
| 0.60 | Will I use Hermes Agent for more than a week?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 237_029 AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience. Dave Blundin | AI | 47% | |
| 0.60 | Alternate requested FairlyRandom market(market prob: 48%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.60 | Free Lottery (Cosmic Explorer)(market prob: 40%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 238_058 Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 years Salim Ismail | Macro/Economy | 33% | |
| 0.60 | Will SPY close above $737.62 on Friday, May 15, 2026?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-13 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-13 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-13 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-15 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.60 | Will I buy gasoline for more than $5/gallon this year (USA)(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-17 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.60 | Daily Coinflip 🎉(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang | Consumer | 51% | |
| 0.60 | Will ETH-USD close above $3,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-18 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 87% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-30 | 236_017 Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.60 | Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $94 on June 10, 2026?(market prob: 64%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 37% | |
| 0.60 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of July? [Polymarket](market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | 243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.60 | Hummingbird connectome by EOY2032(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Labor/Jobs | 45% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 246_032 Claude or successors will be granted limited form of AI personhood. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.60 | 9984.T (SoftBank Group Corp.) over 10,000 by Thursday 11 June, 2026?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | 247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.60 | US Gas Price $4.100 or below in June 2026?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.60 | Will Bayern Munich win the 2026/2027 Bundesliga season(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.60 | Will this market get between 75-150 unique traders?(market prob: 61%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 235_028 Longevity market will grow from $5 trillion to $8 trillion in next four years. Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 56% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | ||
| 0.60 | US Gas Price $4.250 or below in June 2026?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-01 | AUT_024 H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int... Morgan Stanley | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.60 | Will this market receive over 67 unique traders before July 1?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will this market receive over 67 unique traders before July 1?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 33% | |
| 0.60 | Will I get into any MATS tracks in the Autumn 2026 cohort?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | 30 year interest rates greater than 7.5% by EOY 2028(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | 236_027 Debt delinquency and mortgage delinquency rates rising; financial distress ratcheting up Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 51% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.60 | Will it rain at manifest 2026?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.60 | Will Israel hold an election in 2027?(market prob: 43%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-29 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.59 | Will ManiFold Hire a GTM manager until 30 May 2026(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn | AI | 41% | |
| 0.59 | Will ManiFold Hire a GTM manager until 30 May 2026(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.59 | Will ICE be renamed as NICE in 2026?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | |
| 0.59 | Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day next week?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | |
| 0.59 | LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community | AI | 48% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-25 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 247_012 The bar for AI startups will rise to require being recursively self-improving Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Monero trade below $300 during May?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.59 | Will MNX hire a backend developer before Manifest?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 229_043 Figure expects to hire a small handful of lead customers rather than broad distribution over next 6-12 months. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 40% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-03 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.59 | Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day next week?(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | |
| 0.59 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket](market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-04 | AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 37% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-04 | CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley | Macro/Economy | 67% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-04 | CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley | Macro/Economy | 67% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-04 | CMQ_028 NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026). Jensen Huang | Semis | 72% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-05 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-07 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-06 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.59 | Hentavirus pandemic in 2026?(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.59 | Will The_real_LV hit 150 followers on twitch?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 244_012 Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-10 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.59 | Will the top HN story have 500+ points when this resolves?(market prob: 74%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-11 | CMQ_061 Cuban proposed issuance of a US government-backed memecoin specifically to help reduce the United States' ~$37 trillion national debt. Mark Cuban | Crypto | 4% | ||
| 0.59 | Will I be promoted to Mana Gold by 12 am May 31, 2026?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.59 | Will USD strengthen against GBP in the next 24h?(market prob: 65%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-13 | 235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 42% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | ||
| 0.59 | Will SPY close above $750 on Friday, May 22, 2026?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 236_018 UBI/stimulus needed in 1-3 year timeframe, UBS in 3-8 years Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-17 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-17 | AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 37% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 246_029 Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 54% | ||
| 0.59 | Will TSLA close above $500 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.59 | Will TSLA close below $400 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.59 | Will I hold a session at Less.Online 2026(market prob: 72%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.59 | Will I hold a session at Less.Online 2026(market prob: 72%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-27 | S_AGI_SLOW_2031 AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path | agi_general_capability | 25% | ||
| 0.59 | Will 200 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 22% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-26 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-26 | FUT_023 'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 68% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-25 | CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 70% | ||
| 0.59 | Starmer out before October?(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | 238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick | Robotics | 42% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-24 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-31 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Bayern Munich win the 2026/2027 Bundesliga season(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.59 | Will Daniel Negreanu win a World Series of Poker Bracelet in 2026(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-01 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-01 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.59 | Will this market get between 75-150 unique traders?(market prob: 61%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.59 | Do you like 46% odds?(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 239_017 Future is 80%+ likely to be great Elon Musk | Other | 50% | |
| 0.59 | Skeletor is gonna reference the meme “until we meet again”?(market prob: 79%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.59 | Will Nathan (NotARoomba) say 67 before 8th Jun(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | |
| 0.59 | Will Nathan (NotARoomba) say 67 before 8th Jun(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% |