← Cockpit
ROB_024predictionBiotech/Longevityglobal-BioVault-network

Automated robotics and AI-powered monitoring will establish a global network of BioVaults — a 21st-century high-tech backup plan for life on Earth; as humanity faces potential extinction of nearly half of Earth's species by 2050 due to climate and habi...

Predictor: Ben Lamm

Prior probability
52.0%
Current probability
43.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
in_progress
Window
2026-01-01 – 2035-06-30
Edges in / out
1 / 0
Tickers exposed
0

Prediction text

Automated robotics and AI-powered monitoring will establish a global network of BioVaults — a 21st-century high-tech backup plan for life on Earth; as humanity faces potential extinction of nearly half of Earth's species by 2050 due to climate and habitat collapse, cryopreservation + reanimation tools heavily reliant on ML and robotic precision preserve millions of genomic samples. | Next Biovault country-level partnership announcement

Key catalyst: Next Biovault country-level partnership announcement

Watch events: Next Biovault country partnership; species-extinction trajectories

Resolution evidence

Status: in_progress

UAE Biovault + $60M Colossal partnership confirmed 2025; Dallas Innovates / PR Newswire documentation. Global multi-country expansion in progress.

Predictor: Ben Lamm

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0043
excellent
Hits / Misses
2 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Ben Lamm is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

3 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 52%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-03
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 43.0%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 3 pending
  1. 2027-08-21pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  2. 2029-04-10pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  3. 2030-11-29pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 43%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z43.0%-1.3pp
Network propagation: 44.4% → 43.0%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z44.4%-2.6pp
Network propagation: 47.0% → 44.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z47.0%-5.0pp
Network propagation: 52.0% → 47.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK08
Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)
22.0%0.0500.520-0.014

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Prerequisites (1)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
killerTK08Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Validations (1)

Resolution events
Observed atStatusByNotes
2026-04-29partialthesis_timeline_v1.0_importUAE Biovault + $60M Colossal partnership confirmed 2025; Dallas Innovates / PR Newswire documentation. Global multi-country expansion in progress.

Linked documents (5)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "~50% species extinction threat",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-CEO",
  "context": "Extends 245_012 (UAE Biovault nine-figure) and 245_040 (multi-country Biovault partnerships) into global-network framing. Specific 50%-species-extinction-by-2050 threat framing.",
  "to_year": 2035,
  "conv_cues": "CEO FIRST_PERSON; planetary-biodiversity framing",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026-2035",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-08-21",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2029-04-10",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2030-11-29",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Automated robotics and AI-powered monitoring will establish a global network of BioVaults — a 21st-century high-tech backup plan for life on",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "ROB_024",
      "expected_date": "2032-07-19",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "sub_domain": "Longevity",
  "affiliation": "Colossal Biosciences",
  "attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
  "granularity": "YEAR_RANGE",
  "source_refs": "66, 67",
  "target_date": "2030-06-15T00:00:00",
  "display_date": "2032-07-19",
  "episode_date": "2026-04-22T00:00:00",
  "key_catalyst": "Next Biovault country-level partnership announcement",
  "parse_method": "YEAR_RANGE midpoint",
  "domain_bucket": "Biotech",
  "episode_title": "The Embodied AI and Automation Horizon: Comprehensive Analysis of Expert Forecasts (2023-2026)",
  "flag_repeated": false,
  "in_5yr_window": true,
  "source_report": "Robotics Predictions Search Strategy.md (2026-04-22)",
  "appears_in_eps": "ROB-RPT",
  "futurist_phase": "Phase 2 (2027-2028)",
  "is_macro_claim": false,
  "total_mentions": 1,
  "priority_weight": 4,
  "report_evidence": "Anchor section: Automated Biodiversity and Genomic Phenotyping.",
  "active_end_month": "2035-12",
  "recent_statement": "Lamm / Colossal UAE partnership 2025.",
  "watch_events_raw": "Next Biovault country partnership; species-extinction trajectories",
  "months_from_today": 50,
  "probability_layer": "Base-case",
  "active_start_month": "2026-01",
  "december_dispersal": {
    "reason": "december_dispersal: domain=Biotech/Longevity → 06/2035",
    "new_date": "2035-06-30",
    "old_date": "2035-12-31",
    "applied_at": "2026-04-30T16:28:34.304992+00:00"
  },
  "flag_nia_bracketed": false,
  "track_record_grade": "B",
  "track_record_notes": "Lamm biodiversity-preservation execution reliable.",
  "contradicting_notes": "50%-species-extinction by 2050 is upper-bound IPBES estimate; global BioVault network requires sustained decades of capital.",
  "flag_near_term_2027": false,
  "flag_high_conviction": false,
  "milestones_phase2_at": "2026-05-01T21:26:03.381240+00:00",
  "milestones_derived_at": "2026-05-02T03:08:51.157980+00:00",
  "reference_class_match": {
    "decision": "keyword_filtered",
    "computed_at": "2026-04-30T01:49:13.796883+00:00",
    "best_id_unfiltered": "regulatory_freeze_window",
    "best_similarity_unfiltered": 0.5821
  },
  "validation_status_raw": "CONFIRMED-IN-PROGRESS",
  "composite_signal_score": 24.96,
  "flag_priority_watchlist": false,
  "flag_timeline_near_term": false,
  "recent_statement_source": "prnewswire.com 2025"
}