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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.60	Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.60	US Gas Price average for 13 May 2026?	manifold 2026-05-12	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	On which of these days in May will WTI Crude Oil Futures Price rise?	manifold 2026-05-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.60	Will Brent Crude Oil close above $110 on May 15th, 2026?(market prob: 95%)	manifold 2026-05-12	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.60	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 3⅖(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60	ACM Research, Inc. (ACMR) (CIK 0001680062)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.60	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.3.3	github_release 2024-02-16	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.60	Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi	Other	53%
0.60	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.60	Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-12-23	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.60	Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.60	Tempus AI, Inc. (TEM) (CIK 0001717115)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.60	AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES INC (AKAM) (CIK 0001086222)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.60	TextSeal: A Localized LLM Watermark for Provenance & Distillation Protection	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.60	Environment-Adaptive Preference Optimization for Wildfire Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Reconstruction of Personally Identifiable Information from Supervised Finetuned Models	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Optimal Policy Learning under Budget and Coverage Constraints	arxiv 2026-05-12	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.60	Multi-Task Representation Learning for Conservative Linear Bandits	arxiv 2026-05-12	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.60	Fused Gromov-Wasserstein Distance with Feature Selection	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Assessment of cloud and associated radiation fields from a GAN stochastic cloud subcolumn generator	arxiv 2026-05-12	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Delightful Gradients Accelerate Corner Escape	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.60	Delightful Gradients Accelerate Corner Escape	arxiv 2026-05-12	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Minimax Rates and Spectral Distillation for Tree Ensembles	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.60	Gradient Clipping Beyond Vector Norms: A Spectral Approach for Matrix-Valued Parameters	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Fed-BAC: Federated Bandit-Guided Additive Clustering in Hierarchical Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	A nonlinear extension of parametric model embedding for dimensionality reduction in parametric shape design	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Federated Client Selection under Partial Visibility: A POMDP Approach with Spatio-Temporal Attention	arxiv 2026-05-12	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.60	Training-Inference Consistent Segmented Execution for Long-Context LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-12	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.60	Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces	arxiv 2026-05-12	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	EpiCastBench: Datasets and Benchmarks for Multivariate Epidemic Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-12	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Hindsight Hint Distillation: Scaffolded Reasoning for SWE Agents from CoT-free Answers	arxiv 2026-05-12	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.60	Taming Extreme Tokens: Covariance-Aware GRPO with Gaussian-Kernel Advantage Reweighting	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will David Luna Sánchez win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.60	Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Will Terminator2 earn more profit than ShogGoth over the next month?(market prob: 75%)	manifold 2026-05-10	246_002 SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	46%
0.60	MERCURY GENERAL CORP (MCY) (CIK 0000064996)	edgar_8k 2026-05-14	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.60	Fast and effective algorithms for fair clustering at scale	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Min Generalized Sliced Gromov Wasserstein: A Scalable Path to Gromov Wasserstein	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	Multi-Objective and Mixed-Reward Reinforcement Learning via Reward-Decorrelated Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Multi-Objective and Mixed-Reward Reinforcement Learning via Reward-Decorrelated Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Reframing preprocessing selection as model-internal calibration in near-infrared spectroscopy: A large-scale benchmark of operator-adaptive PLS and Ridge models	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Limits of Personalizing Differential Privacy Budgets	arxiv 2026-05-13	238_038 Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Discovery of Hidden Miscalibration Regimes	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.60	The Diffusion Encoder	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	Shortcut Mitigation via Spurious-Positive Samples	arxiv 2026-05-13	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	Context-Aware Web Attack Detection in Open-Source SIEM Systems via MITRE ATT&CK-Enriched Behavioral Profiling	arxiv 2026-05-13	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.60	Stable Attention Response for Reliable Precipitation Nowcasting	arxiv 2026-05-13	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	CoRe-Gen: Robust Spectrum-to-Structure Generation under Imperfect Fingerprint Conditions	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.60	meta-llama/llama-api-python v0.3.0	github_release 2025-08-27	CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic	AI	80%
0.60	Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.60	Spread: Spurs (-5.5)(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.60	Sabres vs. Canadiens(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026 or Starmer out before July 2026? [Polymarket](market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-14	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	China mainland will have the broadcasting rights for the World Cup 2026 by the end of May 2026(market prob: 86%)	manifold 2026-05-12	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.60	ACM Research, Inc. (ACMR) (CIK 0001680062)	edgar_8k 2026-05-15	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.60	INTEL CORP (INTC) (CIK 0000050863)	edgar_8k 2026-05-15	SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban	Economy	30%
0.60	Logging Policy Design for Off-Policy Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.60	Average Gradient Outer Product in kernel regression provably recovers the central subspace for multi-index models	arxiv 2026-05-14	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	TFGN: Task-Free, Replay-Free Continual Pre-Training Without Catastrophic Forgetting at LLM Scale	arxiv 2026-05-14	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.60	Explainable Detection of Depression Status Shifts from User Digital Traces	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_027 Integration of AI with advanced bio-sensing, quantum computing, and genomics enables humanity to achieve 'Longevity Escape Velocity' — tipping point where medical technology extends human lifespan faster than time passes; continuous biological surveill... Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	21%
0.60	Denoising-GS: Gaussian Splatting with Spatial-aware Denoising	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Learning Scenario Reduction for Two-Stage Robust Optimization with Discrete Uncertainty	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Nearest-Neighbor Radii under Dependent Sampling	arxiv 2026-05-14	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	Finite Sample Bounds for Learning with Score Matching	arxiv 2026-05-13	AI_005 Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics olympiads while simultaneously failing rudimentary arithmetic and spatial logic; true AGI requires smoothing these jagged edges via continual learning, d... Demis Hassabis	AI	83%
0.60	Finite Sample Bounds for Learning with Score Matching	arxiv 2026-05-13	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.60	To discretize continually: Mean shift interacting particle systems for Bayesian inference	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Cavaliers vs. Pistons(market prob: 37%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Will Putin visit China by May 31?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-03-31	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.60	Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.60	Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Will SPY close above $739.17 on Friday, May 22, 2026?(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-16	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.60	FDA ANDA216537: CARBIDOPA AND LEVODOPA (CARBIDOPA) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-05-08	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner Stats	manifold 2026-05-17	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Semi-Finals	manifold 2026-05-17	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	S&P 500 up or down on May 18	manifold 2026-05-15	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.60	Will Brent Crude Oil close above $115 on May 22nd, 2026?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-05-18	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60	Will the Tasmanian Tiger / Thylacine be confirmed alive by the end of 2030?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-05-18	AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.60	AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES INC (AKAM) (CIK 0001086222)	edgar_8k 2026-05-18	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.60	Will Hull City AFC vs. Southampton FC end in a draw?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	DashAttention: Differentiable and Adaptive Sparse Hierarchical Attention	arxiv 2026-05-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Learned Memory Attenuation in Sage-Husa Kalman Filters for Robust UAV State Estimation	arxiv 2026-05-18	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.60	Statistical Limits and Efficient Algorithms for Differentially Private Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	An Assessment of Human vs. Model Uncertainty in Soft-Label Learning and Calibration	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Randomized Advantage Transformation (RAT): Computing Natural Policy Gradients via Direct Backpropagation	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	Randomized Advantage Transformation (RAT): Computing Natural Policy Gradients via Direct Backpropagation	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Flowing with Confidence	arxiv 2026-05-18	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.60	What is Holding Back Latent Visual Reasoning?	arxiv 2026-05-18	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.60	UTOPYA: A Multimodal Deep Learning Framework for Physics-Informed Anomaly Detection and Time-Series Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.60	New Insight of Variance reduce in Zero-Order Hard-Thresholding: Mitigating Gradient Error and Expansivity Contradictions	arxiv 2026-05-18	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.60	New Insight of Variance reduce in Zero-Order Hard-Thresholding: Mitigating Gradient Error and Expansivity Contradictions	arxiv 2026-05-18	AI_005 Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics olympiads while simultaneously failing rudimentary arithmetic and spatial logic; true AGI requires smoothing these jagged edges via continual learning, d... Demis Hassabis	AI	83%
0.60	Efficient Bilevel Optimization for Meta Label Correction in Noisy Label Learning	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	When Accuracy Is Not Enough: Uncertainty Collapse between Noisy Label Learning and Out-of-Distribution Detection	arxiv 2026-05-18	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.60	facebookresearch/momentum v0.1.110	github_release 2026-04-26	CMQ_044 Future data-center architectures optimized for agentic workflows may require 1:2 or even 2:1 CPU-to-GPU ratio (vs historical 1:12) to prevent GPU idle-waiting. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	65%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2026-05-31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-20	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Valorant: FUT Esports vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Stage 2(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-24	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.60	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.60	Will SD Eibar win on 2026-05-31?(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-05-20	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	248_001 Apple will soon pit Amazon (Global Star) against SpaceX Starlink as dual satellite vendors. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	42%
0.60	What will the MSRP of the Flipper One?	manifold 2026-05-28	ROB_009 External sales of Tesla Optimus will commence in 2026 at approximately $30,000 retail price — a $30K capital expenditure for a 24/7-capable machine represents a 36-week payback period vs the lowest US minimum wage; fundamentally alters the mathematics ... Elon Musk	Robotics	18%
0.60	On June 28th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?	manifold 2026-05-27	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	On which dates will you get a 20 mana trader bonus for a 1000 mana market?	manifold 2026-05-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60	2026 rate hike parlay (Fed + ECB + BOJ + BOE + PBC)(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-05-25	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.60	Will GTA VI sell more than 50 million copies by the end of 2027?(market prob: 91%)	manifold 2026-05-24	240_010 NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	Will "Fail safe(r) at alignment by channeling rewar..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-24	238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	78%
0.60	Will "Fail safe(r) at alignment by channeling rewar..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-24	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.60	Disbursements from Trump Anti-Weaponization Fund exceed 1 billion dollars before dissolution?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-05-24	INF_011 Mega-cap hyperscalers will commit over $1 trillion of capital expenditures in the 2025-2026 period alone, with roughly half financed via debt — intertwining AI buildout risk with global credit markets. Morgan Stanley	Macro/Economy	92%
0.60	ACM Research, Inc. (ACMR) (CIK 0001680062)	edgar_8k 2026-05-29	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.60	City-Mesh3R: Simulation-Ready City-Scale 3D Mesh Reconstruction from Multi-View Images	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Accelerating Constrained Decoding with Token Space Compression	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Quantifying and Optimizing Simplicity via Polynomial Representations	arxiv 2026-05-28	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	ExDBSCAN: Explaining DBSCAN with Counterfactual Reasoning -- Additional Material	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	ExDBSCAN: Explaining DBSCAN with Counterfactual Reasoning -- Additional Material	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	MMTM: Tri-Modal Topic Modeling for Long-Form Video via Similarity-Gated Fusion	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Mixing Vector Model for Copolymer Inference via Mixed Integer Linear Programming	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_035 HBM4 16-layer stack design (required for Vera Rubin) places unprecedented yield and capacity strain on global memory fabrication facilities. Jensen Huang / Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.60	CCS: Clinical Consensus Selection for Radiology Report Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	FDA ANDA209224: LACOSAMIDE (LACOSAMIDE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-05-22	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	Will TYLOO win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.60	Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01?(market prob: 86%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.60	Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.60	Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.60	Will Astralis win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Which Manifold Users will perform better than @Jack1 in June 2026 Leagues (add your username!)	manifold 2026-06-01	230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.60	FDA ANDA208058: LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE (LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — HERITAGE PHARMA AVET	fda 2026-05-14	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.60	Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Free Lottery (tidal disruption event)(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-06-02	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.60	Which will be the best meme posted in #memefold in June 2026 according to Manifold?	manifold 2026-06-01	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.60	Which will be the best meme posted in #memefold in June 2026 according to Manifold?	manifold 2026-06-01	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.60	Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) (CIK 0001596532)	edgar_8k 2026-06-02	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.60	QUANTUM CORP /DE/ (QMCO) (CIK 0000709283)	edgar_8k 2026-06-02	247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google	AI	46%
0.60	Repair Before Veto: Repair-Augmented Constraint Learning for Contextual Decisions	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.60	Predicting the risk of colorectal anastomotic leak based on preoperative mapping of the blood supply of the bowel	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.60	Physics-Guided Attention in a Lightweight TCN for Efficient WiFi CSI-Based Human Activity Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Shortcut to Nowhere: Demystifying Deep Spurious Regression	arxiv 2026-06-01	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.60	FedMTFI: Feature Importance Based Optimized Multi Teacher Knowledge Distillation in Heterogeneous Federated Learning Environment	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.60	Identifying High-Confidence Social Biases in LLMs for Trustworthy Conversational Tutoring Agents	arxiv 2026-06-01	233_005 Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year. Dave Blundin	AI	51%
0.60	IntraShuffler: A Privacy Preserving Framework for Heterogeneous DP Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.60	Spectral Audit of In-Context Operator Networks	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	CORE-MTL: Rethinking Gradient Balancing via Causal Orthogonal Representations	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Query-Limited Community Recovery in Stochastic Block Models	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.60	Uncertainty-Aware Graph Neural Reconstruction of Urban Temperature Fields from Sparse Sensors under Deployment Constraints	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Randomized Least Squares Value Iteration itself is Joint Differentially Private	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Tree-Guided Identify-Then-Exploit: A Unified Framework of Best Arm Identification and Regret Minimization for Dueling Bandits	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.60	TLG: Temporal-Logic Grounding for Video Question Answering via Source-Annotation Reconstruction and Category-Targeted Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	From Outliers to Errors: Auditing Pali-to-English LLM Translations with Multi-Reference Adjudication	arxiv 2026-05-31	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.60	FDA ANDA219346: ANDA219346 ((unspecified)) — SANDOZ INC	fda 2026-05-12	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.1.7	github_release 2021-01-29	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.60	When will Manifest 2026 upload videos of presentations to Youtube?	manifold 2026-06-03	240_052 Uploading consciousness (whole brain emulation) really will be you in the future Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	41%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?(market prob: 88%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.60	Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-04?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.60	Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Solana dip to $60 in June?(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	Will Solana dip to $60 June 1-7?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60	How many billionaires will New York City lose in 2026?	manifold 2026-06-04	243_002 Uber will be in 15 cities with autonomous partners by end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	75%
0.60	CRISPR Therapeutics AG (CRSP) (CIK 0001674416)	edgar_8k 2026-06-04	245_031 99% of synthetic biology focus will remain on human healthcare; similar tech applies more broadly Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	41%
0.60	FDA BLA761069: IMFINZI (DURVALUMAB) — ASTRAZENECA UK LTD	fda 2026-05-28	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Will Haiti win on 2026-06-05?(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.60	Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will US CPI inflation (CPI-U, 12-month, June 2026) exceed 4.0%?(market prob: 73%)	manifold 2026-06-05	236_034 Rapid inflation in near-term from UBI money printing, then rapid deflation from AI/robotics Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	50%
0.60	How many subscribers will Destiny have by the end of June 2026?	manifold 2026-06-05	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.60	You Only Index Once: Cross-Layer Sparse Attention with Shared Routing	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	You Only Index Once: Cross-Layer Sparse Attention with Shared Routing	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.60	DAST: A VLM-LLM Framework for Cross-Interface Anomaly Detection in O-RAN	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.60	Benchmarking Open-Source Layout Detection Models for Data Snapshot Extraction from Institutional Documents	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Harnessing Structural Context for Entity Alignment Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	RedditPersona: A Modular Framework for Community-Conditioned LLM Adaptation from Reddit	arxiv 2026-06-04	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	UniVoice: A Unified Model for Speech and Singing Voice Generation	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.60	Function-Space Priors for Bayesian Neural ODEs with Application to Vessel Trajectory Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-04	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	Diffusion Models Observe Only Gradients: A Geometric Perspective on Score Matching Errors	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	A Sliced-Wasserstein Framework on Correlation Matrices for EEG Decoding	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Online KL-Regularized Reinforcement Learning with Function Approximation under Misspecification	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	MolE-RAG: Molecular Structure-Enhanced Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Chemistry	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Field Validation of a Multi-Resolution ConvLSTM Framework for Retaining Wall Deformation Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-04	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.60	Sparse Functional Singular Value Decomposition for Biclustering and Triclustering Longitudinal Data	arxiv 2026-06-03	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.60	Sharp First-Order Lower Bounds for Higher-Order Smooth Nonconvex Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-03	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.60	SHALA-LLM: Smartly Handling Ambiguous Labels in Aligning LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	From Self to Other: Evaluating Demographic Perspective-Taking in LLM Hate Speech Annotation	arxiv 2026-06-04	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	English-to-Prakrit Machine Translation via Multilingual Transfer Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	Self-Evaluation Is Already There: Eliciting Latent Judge Calibration in Base LLMs with Minimal Data	arxiv 2026-06-03	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Attitude-Aided Linear Calibration of Triaxial Accelerometers	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Multi-Resolution Tactile Imitation Learning for Contact-Rich Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	A Novel Method with Encoder-Decoder for Cross-Sensor Adaptation in Surface Shape Sensing with Sparse Strain Sensors	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	Visuotactile and Explicitly Force-Controlled Robotic Ultrasound for Abdominal Volumetric Reconstruction	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.60	D$^3$-MoE:Dual Disentangled Diffusion Mixture-of-Experts for Style-Controllable End-to-End Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-03	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Diffusion of multiple conserved charges from entropy production	arxiv 2026-06-04	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.60	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06?(market prob: 88%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Will Claude Mythos be released by the end of June 2026?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-06-06	229_008 By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). Brett Adcock	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.60	Manifold Markets says I have 249 Traders right now. By June 12th PDT (California Time) I will have 650.(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-06-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	QUANTUM CORP /DE/ (QMCO) (CIK 0000709283)	edgar_8k 2026-06-05	247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google	AI	46%
0.60	Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026?(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.60	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	The King's Gauntlet winner? (Hera's AoE2 streamer invitational)	manifold 2026-06-07	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.60	The King's Gauntlet winner? (Hera's AoE2 streamer invitational)	manifold 2026-06-07	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	facebookresearch/detectron2 v0.2	github_release 2020-07-08	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.60	Don't Pause: Streaming Video-Language Synchrony for Online Video Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-05	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.60	FLOWREADER: Min-Cost Flow Optimization for Multi-Modal Long Document Q&A	arxiv 2026-06-05	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.60	Constructing VAE Latent Spaces with Prescribed Topology	arxiv 2026-06-05	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.60	GenPO++: Generative Policy Optimization with Jacobian-free Likelihood Ratios	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.60	From Genomes to Algorithms: Neural Network Applications for Palimpsest Detection in Medieval Manuscripts	arxiv 2026-06-05	245_006 Colossal will productionize species development via biobanking, synthetic biology, automation, AI, computer vision and artificial wombs Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	41%
0.60	From Genomes to Algorithms: Neural Network Applications for Palimpsest Detection in Medieval Manuscripts	arxiv 2026-06-05	248_032 First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be non-destructive. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	42%
0.60	Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Nanterre vs. Monaco(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.60	can you just balenciaga it? Before 2027(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-08	237_025 We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. Peter Diamandis	AI	59%
0.60	Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 40%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs FULL SENSE (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.60	Will Fed (Kevin Warsh) cut interest rates by July 2026?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-06-09	S_RECESSION_2027 NBER recession declared 2027	macro_recession	30%
0.60	Free Lottery (Hubble constant)(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-09	234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.60	Will Jesus return on November 25 2026(market prob: 1%)	manifold 2026-06-08	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.60	MERCURY GENERAL CORP (MCY) (CIK 0000064996)	edgar_8k 2026-06-09	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.60	PTL-Diffusion: Manifold-Aware Diffusion with Periodic Terminal Laws	arxiv 2026-06-08	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.60	Hybrid Robustness Verification for Spatio-Temporal Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-08	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	SIFT: Selective-Index For Fast Compute of RAG Prefill by Exploiting Attention Invariance	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Proposal Refinement for Few-Shot Object Detection	arxiv 2026-06-08	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.60	Crop Recommendation and Agricultural Query Answering System Using Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks and Hybrid Retrieval Augmentation	arxiv 2026-06-08	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.60	Cheap Reward Hacking Detection	arxiv 2026-06-08	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.60	Evaluating the Representation Space of Diffusion Models via Self-Supervised Principles	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Breaking the Tokenizer Barrier: On-Policy Distillation across Model Families	arxiv 2026-06-08	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.60	PRISM: Topology-Aware Cross-Modal Imputation for Modality-Deficient Federated Graph Learning	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	Alcmean's: Unsupervised community detection using local Laplacian, automatic detection of the number of centers	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.60	Generalization in Nonlinear Least Squares via Learned Feature Geometry	arxiv 2026-06-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Quantum Global Variational Learning for Quantum Error Correction	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.60	Quantum Global Variational Learning for Quantum Error Correction	arxiv 2026-06-07	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.60	Is Text All You Need? Text as a Universal Information Bottleneck for Speech LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	ChinaHeritaQA: A Culturally-Grounded Visual Question Answering Dataset for World Heritage Sites in China	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	ChinaHeritaQA: A Culturally-Grounded Visual Question Answering Dataset for World Heritage Sites in China	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.60	Back on Track: Aligning Rewards and States for Reasoning in Diffusion Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-07	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.60	Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will George Pickens play for Atlanta Falcons in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-27	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.60	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.60	Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	How far will the USA get in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	manifold 2026-06-10	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.60	Jet Lag: The Game Season Eighteen Truth Statements	manifold 2026-06-10	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.60	One Token per Multimodal Evidence: Latent Memory for Resource-Constrained QA	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.60	Minimum Distortion Quantization with Specified Output Distribution	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Expert-Level Crisis Detection in Mental Health Conversations	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_027 Integration of AI with advanced bio-sensing, quantum computing, and genomics enables humanity to achieve 'Longevity Escape Velocity' — tipping point where medical technology extends human lifespan faster than time passes; continuous biological surveill... Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	21%
0.60	Expert-Level Crisis Detection in Mental Health Conversations	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.60	Towards Robust Arabic Speech Emotion Recognition with Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	An Improved Generative Adversarial Network for Micro-Resistivity Imaging Logging Restoration	arxiv 2026-06-08	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Multimodal Brain Tumour Classification Using Feature Fusion	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Generative Archetype-Grounded Item Representations for Sequential Recommendation	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Sleep EEG Signal Criticality as a Non-Invasive Predictor of Cognitive Decline in Dementia	arxiv 2026-06-09	AI_007 Technological singularity arrives by 2039 — computing capacity matches the human brain, AI processes the entirety of human knowledge, and human cognition begins to merge with machine intelligence via biological nanobots. Ray Kurzweil	AI	38%
0.60	Inverse Probability Weighting and Age-of-Information Aggregation for Decentralized Federated Learning under Partial Reception	arxiv 2026-06-09	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.60	Profy: Interpretable Visualization of Expertise-Dependent Motor Skills Toward Supporting Piano Practice	arxiv 2026-06-09	AI_033 AI-powered mastery learning allows students to master traditional academics in merely 2 hours/day, achieving learning rates 2.3x faster than statistical models predict — freeing human educators to transition into 'Guides' focused on emotional support, ... MacKenzie Price	Education	66%
0.60	Accelerating SAV-based optimization via randomized low-rank Hessian approximation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	A Comprehensive Inference-Time Augmentation Framework in Physiological Signals: Application to PPG-Based AF Detection	arxiv 2026-06-09	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.60	A Comprehensive Inference-Time Augmentation Framework in Physiological Signals: Application to PPG-Based AF Detection	arxiv 2026-06-09	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	Revisiting Positive Samples in Graph Contrastive Learning: From the Perspective of Message Passing	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Alignment Defends LLMs from Property Inference Attacks	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.60	Are We Evaluating Knowledge or Phrasing? Mitigating MCQA Sensitivity with ParaEval	arxiv 2026-06-09	INF_008 Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — a sustained compounding rate that rapidly surpasses human-level baselines and mandates continuous hardware refresh cycles. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.60	Resilient Navigation for Autonomous Farm Robots by Leveraging Jerk-Augmented Models with IMU-Only Disturbance Rejection	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.60	Rethinking Embodied Navigation via Relational Inductive Bias	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	The Scattering Algebra of Physical Space: Wigner-Covariance and Fields	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.60	Wave packets from the spectrum	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Testing Supersymmetric Hidden Sectors with Long-Baseline Atom Interferometers	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.60	Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	24%
0.60	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.60	Will any @ManifoldSports Fifa World Cup Game market get over .… traders?	manifold 2026-06-11	240_007 Regulators will dust off antitrust legislation against NVIDIA Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	38%
0.60	Will any @ManifoldSports Fifa World Cup Game market get over .… traders?	manifold 2026-06-11	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	System Report for CCL25-Eval Task 5: New Dataset and LoRA-Fine-Tuned Qwen2.5	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Multi-View In-Cabin Monitoring System for Public Transport Vehicles	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.60	ICA Lens: Interpreting Language Models Without Training Another Dictionary	arxiv 2026-06-10	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	Reason, Then Re-reason: Cross-view Revisiting Improves Spatial Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.60	TAROT: Task-Adaptive Refinement of LLM-prior Graphs for Few-shot Tabular Learning	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.60	Towards Fully Automated Exam Grading: Fairness-Aware Recognition of Handwritten Answers with Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.60	Towards Fully Automated Exam Grading: Fairness-Aware Recognition of Handwritten Answers with Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	JailbreakOPT: Tool-Assisted Iterative Jailbreak Prompt Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	HAMNO: A Hierarchical Adaptive Multi-scale Neural Operator with Physics-Informed Learning for Dynamical Systems	arxiv 2026-06-10	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.60	Parameter-Efficient Adapter Tuning for Tabular-Image Multimodal Learning	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	GLACIER: A Multimodal Student-Teacher Foundation Model for Molecular Property Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-09	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.60	Multimodal Brain Tumour Classification Using Feature Fusion	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Fixed-Parameter Tractability of Private Synthetic Data Generation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.60	Debiasing Without Protected Attributes: Latent Concept Erasure from Textual Profiles	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	FORT-Searcher: Synthesizing Shortcut-Resistant Search Tasks for Training Deep Search Agents	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Nonadditivity in Quantum Field Theory: Replica Energies, Scaling Filters, and the Renormalization Group	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.60	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.21.0	github_release 2026-06-08	242_044 Base AI models becoming commodity; value migrates up the stack Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.20.0	github_release 2026-05-11	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.60	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.19.0	github_release 2026-03-26	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.60	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.18.1	github_release 2026-03-23	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.60	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_lammps-0.5.0	github_release 2026-03-09	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.60	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_lammps-0.5.0	github_release 2026-03-09	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.14.0	github_release 2026-02-17	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.60	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.12.0	github_release 2025-11-21	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.60	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.8.0	github_release 2025-10-07	229_047 Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planned. Brett Adcock	AI	77%
0.60	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.4.0	github_release 2025-08-26	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	Will ThunderTalk Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-20	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.60	Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Spread: Switzerland (-2.5)(market prob: 31%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Will Tadeo Allende win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-18	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.60	Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	How many people will attend Manifest 2026?	manifold 2026-06-12	S_HUMANOID_MASS_2033 Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033	humanoid_deployment	10%
0.60	Starmer out before December?(market prob: 83%)	manifold 2026-06-12	SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	39%
0.60	ACM Research, Inc. (ACMR) (CIK 0001680062)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.60	MERCURY GENERAL CORP (MCY) (CIK 0000064996)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.60	Learning to Reason by Analogy via Retrieval-Augmented Reinforcement Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Physics-Guided Spatiotemporal Learning for Coastal Wave Peak Period Estimation from Video	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Decoding Insect Song: A Multitask Semisupervised Orthoptera Bioacoustic Classifier	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	NaturalFlow: Reducing Disruptive Pauses for Natural Speech Flow in Simultaneous Speech-to-Speech Translation	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.60	Simultaneous Latent Budget Trees for Stratified Classification	arxiv 2026-06-11	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	WHAR Arena: Benchmarking the State of the Art in Efficient Wearable Human Activity Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Loss-Shift Transfer via Bayes Quotients	arxiv 2026-06-11	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Physics-Aware Auxiliary Losses Improve Out-of-Distribution Generalization of a GNN Synthesizability Filter	arxiv 2026-06-10	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	Epistemic Uncertainty Is Not the Reducible Kind	arxiv 2026-06-10	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	When Does Mixing Help? Analyzing Query Embedding Interpolation in Multilingual Dense Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-11	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.60	HyPE: Category-Aware Hypergraph Encoding with Persistent Edge Embeddings for Persona-Grounded Dialogue	arxiv 2026-06-11	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.60	PiDA: Phonetically-Informed Data Augmentation for Robust Vietnamese Speech Translation	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.60	Detect, Remask, Repair: Diffusion Editing for Faithful Summarization of Evolving Contexts	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.60	Constrained Semantic Decompression in LLMs through Persian Proverb-Conditioned Story Generation	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Constrained Semantic Decompression in LLMs through Persian Proverb-Conditioned Story Generation	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	MPC for underactuated spacecraft control with a Lyapunov supervised physics-informed neural network correction layer	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Analytic structure of the QCD phase diagram in the complex-temperature plane	arxiv 2026-06-10	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Spread: Norway (-1.5)(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 88%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi	Other	53%
0.60	Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Spread: Canada (-3.5)(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.60	Which country will be next to win their first FIFA World Cup?	manifold 2026-06-14	234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail	Geopolitics	44%
0.60	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5)(market prob: 69%)	polymarket 2026-06-14	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.60	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? [Polymarket](market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-06-15	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Will Stellaris 2 be released before 2031?(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-06-14	CMQ_022 AGI will arrive within a decade (by 2030) — driven primarily by massive raw compute deployment and neural-network scaling. Elon Musk	AI	34%
0.60	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.7.4	github_release 2023-05-10	248_032 First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be non-destructive. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	42%
0.60	Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5(market prob: 27%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.60	Semantic Flip: Synthetic OOD Generation for Robust Refusal in Embodied Question Answering and Spatial Localization	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.60	MuVAP: Multimodal Multiparty Voice Activity Projection for Turn-taking Prediction in the Wild	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Learning Interface Breakup: A Geometry-Conditioned Latent Surrogate for Spray Formation	arxiv 2026-06-15	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Learning Interface Breakup: A Geometry-Conditioned Latent Surrogate for Spray Formation	arxiv 2026-06-15	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.60	Uncertainty Quality of VGGT: An Analysis on the DTU Benchmark Dataset	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Medical Heuristic Learning: An LLM-Driven Framework for Interpretable and Auditable Clinical Decision Rules	arxiv 2026-06-15	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.60	ArtBoost: Synthetic Articulatory Data Augmentation for Acoustic-to-Articulatory Inversion	arxiv 2026-06-15	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.60	SpecAlign: Efficient Specification-Grounded Alignment of Large Language Models via Synthetic Data	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Variance Reduction for Non-Log-Concave Sampling with Applications to Inverse Problems	arxiv 2026-06-15	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.60	Cascaded Sparse Autoencoders Learn Multi-Level Visual Concepts in Multimodal LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	PAL-Bench: Evidence-Grounded Profile Reconstruction from Longitudinal Personal Albums	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	MASCOT-Android: A Curated Dataset and Automated Collection Pipeline for Android Malware Source Code Specimens	arxiv 2026-06-15	AI_028 Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey's launch of Bitchat — will become critical infrastructure for verifiable human communication as the internet is flooded with synthetic content and deep... Jack Dorsey	Crypto	28%
0.60	The Complexity of Min-Max Optimization for Quadratic Polynomials	arxiv 2026-06-15	241_018 Algorithms becoming more efficient will not reduce power demand - it will increase (Jevons paradox) Eric Schmidt	Energy	55%
0.60	A Multi-Center Benchmark for Abdominal Disease Diagnosis and Report Generation from Non-Contrast CT	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.60	Scalable Pairwise Kernel Learning with Stochastic Vec Trick	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.60	STAR-NT: Spatiotemporal Acceleration of Real-Time Neural Transparency Rendering	arxiv 2026-06-15	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.60	Near-Optimal Stochastic Linear Bandits with Delay	arxiv 2026-06-15	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.60	Context-Aware Markov VAE for CSI Compression in Wireless Systems	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	On the Entropy Formula for Real, Complex, and Quaternionic Deep Linear Networks	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_004 By approximately 2027-2028, collaborative AI programs will essentially 'solve physics' — unifying general relativity and quantum mechanics into a new mathematical framework; the core mission of DeepMind is to 'first solve AI, then use AI to solve every... Demis Hassabis	AI	8%
0.60	MUNI: Multimodal Unified Latent Diffusion for Coherent Any-to-Any Generation	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	To forget is to preserve: Machine Unlearning for 3D medical image segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Connecting Speech to Words through Images	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	How Far Can Machine Translation Quality Take You? Extrinsic Discourse Evaluation in Goal-Oriented Setups	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	DoubtProbe: Black-Box Jailbreak Defense via Structural Verification and Semantic Auditing	arxiv 2026-06-15	231_027 Algorithmic arbitration with cryptographic verification will create programmable governments. Salim Ismail	Other	44%
0.60	Weaving Multi-Source Evidence for Biomedical Reasoning: The BioMedHop Benchmark and BioWeave Framework	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.60	ttda704 at SemEval-2026 Task 6: Structured Chain-of-Thought Prompting for Political Evasion Detection	arxiv 2026-06-14	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.60	Friction Characterization of a Cable-Driven Differential Actuation System for Lower-Limb Exoskeletons	arxiv 2026-06-14	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.60	Transferring Contact, Not Just Motion: Compliant Grasping Across Dexterous Hands	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Machine Learning Topological Order from Defect Partition Functions	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	Flowing to Normality and the Fate of the Single Ring Theorem	arxiv 2026-06-14	231_032 Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	31%
0.60	FDA NDA214373: BRENZAVVY (BEXAGLIFLOZIN) — THERACOSBIO	fda 2026-06-03	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	Spread: Canada (-1.5)(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	30%
0.60	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)	mars_uncrewed_landing	50%
0.60	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Free Lottery (cosmic inflation)(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-06-17	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.60	Waymo in Portland in 2026?(market prob: 49%)	manifold 2026-06-16	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.60	Learning Fair Pareto-Optimal Policies in Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-16	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.60	Enhancing Pathological VLMs with Cross-scale Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-16	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.60	Counterfactual Optimization of Baseball Pitch Sequences and Estimation of Its Impact on Season-Level Statistics	arxiv 2026-06-15	248_031 Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	39%
0.60	Geometry-Consistent Endoscopic Representations for Image-Guided Navigation via Structured Foundation Model Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	SpeechDx: A Multi-Task Benchmark for Clinical Speech AI	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis	AI	60%
0.60	Predictive Analytics in E-Commerce for CustomerBehavior Forecasting using hybrid Ret-DNN withXGBoost Model	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_040 AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant global memory suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). Samsung executives	Semis/Memory	62%
0.60	A fairness-aware extension of Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis for ranking	arxiv 2026-06-16	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Constrained Diffusion Models with Primal-Dual Inference	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Darshana Graph: A Parallel Commentary Corpus for Comparative Indian Philosophy, with Stylometric and Exploratory Graph Analyses	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Examining the Limits of Word2Vec with Toki Pona	arxiv 2026-06-15	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Examining the Limits of Word2Vec with Toki Pona	arxiv 2026-06-15	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.60	Revisiting LLM Adaptation for 3D CT Report Generation: A Study of Scaling and Diagnostic Priors	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.60	Not Truly Multilingual: Script Consistency as a Missing Dimension in VLM Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-15	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.60	Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 Group Stage(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.60	Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Modi out by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2025-11-11	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Will Fable be reenabled for Europeans before Americans?(market prob: 1%)	manifold 2026-06-18	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	PFIZER INC (PFE) (CIK 0000078003)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60	PFIZER INC (PFE) (CIK 0000078003)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60	RedactionBench	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	TW-LegalBench: Measuring Taiwanese Legal Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.60	Redact or Keep? A Fully Local AI Cascade for Educational Dialogue De-Identification	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	P-K-GCN: Physics-augmented Koopman-enhanced Graph Convolutional Network for Deep Spatiotemporal Super-resolution	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	ChronoSurv: A Clinical Pathway-Guided Graph Framework for Multimodal Survival Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_027 Integration of AI with advanced bio-sensing, quantum computing, and genomics enables humanity to achieve 'Longevity Escape Velocity' — tipping point where medical technology extends human lifespan faster than time passes; continuous biological surveill... Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	21%
0.60	Kernel of Partition Paths: A Unified Representation for Tree Ensembles	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Kernel of Partition Paths: A Unified Representation for Tree Ensembles	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.60	Trainable Photonic Measurement for Physics-Informed PDE Learning	arxiv 2026-06-17	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.60	Towards Anomaly Detection on Relational Data	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Beyond AHI: An Interpretable Causal-Discovery-Guided Framework for Sleep Recovery in Connected Health	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_027 Integration of AI with advanced bio-sensing, quantum computing, and genomics enables humanity to achieve 'Longevity Escape Velocity' — tipping point where medical technology extends human lifespan faster than time passes; continuous biological surveill... Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	21%
0.60	Pointwise is Pointless? A Multimodal Ablation Study for Precipitation Nowcasting with Graph Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-16	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.60	Output Vector Editing for Memorization Mitigation in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-17	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Observability and Consistency Analysis for Visual-Inertial Navigation with Anchored Feature Parameterizations	arxiv 2026-06-17	242_059 Self-flying eVTOLs will be the norm given AI safety advantages Dave Blundin	Auto/Transport	45%
0.60	ART-VS: Adaptive Resolution Tiling for Vision Transformer Visual Servoing	arxiv 2026-06-17	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.60	Mutation and crossover of simplicial complexes	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	A Note on Corrections to Entanglement Wedge Reconstruction	arxiv 2026-06-17	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.60	The Landscape of Composite Higgs Models	arxiv 2026-06-16	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	pytorch/pytorch v2.12.1	github_release 2026-06-18	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.60	Spread: Brazil (-1.5)(market prob: 73%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.60	Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	ROB_009 External sales of Tesla Optimus will commence in 2026 at approximately $30,000 retail price — a $30K capital expenditure for a 24/7-capable machine represents a 36-week payback period vs the lowest US minimum wage; fundamentally alters the mathematics ... Elon Musk	Robotics	18%
0.60	Structuring and Tokenizing Distributed User Interest Context for Generative Recommendation	arxiv 2026-06-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	SARLO-80: Worldwide Slant SAR Language Optic Dataset 80cm	arxiv 2026-06-18	SPC_016 AI transforms Earth Observation satellites via on-orbit edge computing — parsing raw visual and radar data in space, downlinking only actionable insights rather than raw imagery; permanently handing tedious low-cognitive tasks to AI and reserving human... Ben Lamm	Space	72%
0.60	SARLO-80: Worldwide Slant SAR Language Optic Dataset 80cm	arxiv 2026-06-18	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.60	Robust $Q$-learning for mean-field control under Wasserstein uncertainty in common noise	arxiv 2026-06-18	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.60	ELVA: Exploring Ranking-Driven Universal Multimodal Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.60	The Register Gap: A Meaning Intelligence Framework for Nigerian Public Discourse	arxiv 2026-06-18	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.60	Hybrid Diffusion Transformer for Instruction-Guided Audio Editing via Rectified Flow	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Improving End-to-End Speech Recognition for Dysarthric Speech through In-Domain Data Augmentation	arxiv 2026-06-18	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.60	Cross-Dataset, Age, and Gender Generalization: A Comprehensive Analysis of Fine-Tuning Strategies for Low-Resource Children's ASR	arxiv 2026-06-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	GLARE: A Natural Language Interface for Querying Global Explanations	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Multi-Task Bayesian In-Context Learning	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	92%
0.60	Towards Modality-imbalanced Federated Graph Learning: A Data Synthesis-based Approach	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Predicting gestational age at birth in the context of preterm birth from multi-modal fetal MRI	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Optimal Coarse Correlated Equilibria in Mean Field Games: Linear Programming and No-Regret Learning	arxiv 2026-06-18	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Structure-Oriented Randomized Neural Networks for Poisson-Nernst-Planck and Poisson-Nernst-Planck-Navier-Stokes Systems	arxiv 2026-06-18	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.60	On the Oracle Complexity of Interpolation-Based Gradient Descent	arxiv 2026-06-18	AI_005 Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics olympiads while simultaneously failing rudimentary arithmetic and spatial logic; true AGI requires smoothing these jagged edges via continual learning, d... Demis Hassabis	AI	83%
0.60	Convex training of Lipschitz-regularized shallow neural networks	arxiv 2026-06-17	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.60	Spectral DPPs via NEPv: A Scalable Continuous Relaxation of Determinantal MAP for Diversity-Aware Data Selection	arxiv 2026-06-17	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.60	Spectral DPPs via NEPv: A Scalable Continuous Relaxation of Determinantal MAP for Diversity-Aware Data Selection	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	What sentiment analysis can't see: Measuring whether customers were helped, and what went wrong, across 70,000 support conversations	arxiv 2026-06-18	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.60	On the Renormalization Group Flow of Active Flocks	arxiv 2026-06-18	238_038 Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	FDA ANDA077446: IRBESARTAN AND HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE (HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE) — SANDOZ	fda 2026-06-08	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	Spread: Spain (-2.5)(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2025-11-11	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.60	Spread: Ecuador (-3.5)(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Starmer out by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Russia enter Borova by June 30?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.60	Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.60	When will Waymo or an equivalent be generally available in chicago.	manifold 2026-06-20	242_013 Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	55%
0.60	FDA ANDA219413: ANDA219413 ((unspecified)) — TEVA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.	fda 2026-06-05	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-05	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.60	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-05	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 20%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	235_017 OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	48%
0.60	Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-17	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-30?(market prob: 37%)	polymarket 2026-04-17	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-30?(market prob: 37%)	polymarket 2026-04-17	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.60	Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2025-07-24	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.60	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-03	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.60	Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.60	Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?(market prob: 65%)	polymarket 2026-03-26	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.60	Callais: Which of these states will use a new congressional map for 2026?	manifold 2026-04-29	FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard	Media/Ads	50%
0.60	Will "Quick Paper Review: "There Will Be a Scientif..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-28	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.60	Will pine sell out to CS?(market prob: 77%)	manifold 2026-04-25	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	When will Yao Ye beat me in Codeforces rating?	manifold 2026-04-25	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.60	Will a real Scientologist trade on this market?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-04-25	230_043 The economic surplus won't go to employees or companies but to the AIs (lobsters) in a 'crypto dystopia'. Alex Wissner-Gross	Crypto	36%