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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.61	Multiple cyclicity and Wavelet Decomposition with Channel Correlation for Long-term Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-16	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.61	Recover Semantics First, Generate Better: Improved Latent Modeling for 3D MRI Reconstruction and Cross-Contrast Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	PearlVLA: Progressive Embodied Action-Plan Refinement in Latent Space	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	WallZero: Mastering the Game of WallGo with Strategic Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	TuneAhead: Predicting Fine-tuning Performance Before Full Training Begins	arxiv 2026-06-16	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	SketchXplain: Intuitive Visual Explanations of Image Classifiers with Sketches	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	DriveJudge: Rethinking Autonomous Driving Evaluation with Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	INI-VPINN: A Variational Physics-Informed Neural Network with Implicit Neumann and Interface Handling for Multi-Material Domains with Geometric Singularities	arxiv 2026-06-16	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	Differential Privacy of Gaussian Process Posterior Sampling	arxiv 2026-06-16	231_021 Privacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and micro drones gathering data. Peter Diamandis	Consumer	59%
0.61	Public transit gains and spatially uneven travel demand changes after NYC congestion pricing	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.61	GeneralVLA-2: Geometry-Aware Reconstruction and Governed Memory for Robot Planning	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.61	Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5)(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will Cameron Young win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	The Reward Was in Your Data All Along: Correcting Flow Matching with Discriminator-Guided RL	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.61	RouteJudge: An Open Platform for Reproducible and Preference-Aware LLM Routing	arxiv 2026-06-17	INF_026 'Software 3.0' LLM infrastructure will operate like public utilities — requiring massive upfront capex (training compute, specialized hardware), specialized networking protocols for synchrony across hundreds of thousands of GPUs, and flawless uninterru... Andrej Karpathy	AI	70%
0.61	Fair Online Resource Allocation	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_044 Future data-center architectures optimized for agentic workflows may require 1:2 or even 2:1 CPU-to-GPU ratio (vs historical 1:12) to prevent GPU idle-waiting. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	65%
0.61	Toward Simultaneously Optimal Regret in U-Calibration	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Signature filtering: a lightweight enhancement for statistical watermark detection in large language models	arxiv 2026-06-16	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.61	PragReST: Self-Reinforcing Counterfactual Reasoning for Pragmatic Language Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Montreal Forced Aligner and the state of speech-to-text alignment in 2026	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Montreal Forced Aligner and the state of speech-to-text alignment in 2026	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Shape Sensing of Continuum Robots using Direct Laser Writing	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	TactSpace: Learning a Physics-enriched Shared Latent Space for Tactile Sim-to-Real Transfer	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	A High-accuracy Event-based Underwater SLAM System	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Tunable Chaos in the Finite Mean SYK Model	arxiv 2026-06-16	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	pytorch/pytorch v2.12.1	github_release 2026-06-18	240_003 NVIDIA will lock up 70%+ of TSMC's 3nm node volume Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	Brazil leading at halftime?(market prob: 70%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Ivan Perišić be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.61	Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5(market prob: 75%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027?(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.61	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will a sample from the Martian system be returned to Earth by an Asian space agency before a Western space agency?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-06-19	242_039 NASA will imminently find >90% probability evidence of microbial life on Mars Jared Isaacman (NASA administrator)	Space	46%
0.61	Will a sample from the Martian system be returned to Earth by an Asian space agency before a Western space agency?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-06-19	COD_SPC_001 Artemis III flies as an Earth-orbit HLS/EVA suit test mission in 2027, not a lunar landing Codex Research Pack	Space	44%
0.61	Will a sample from the Martian system be returned to Earth by an Asian space agency before a Western space agency?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-06-19	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Do you like 62% odds?(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-06-18	247_013 99% of randomly selected white collar jobs could be replaced by AI today Peter Dannenberg	Labor/Jobs	22%
0.61	Confidence Calibration for Multimodal LLMs: An Empirical Study through Medical VQA	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	Improving End-to-End Speech Recognition for Dysarthric Speech through In-Domain Data Augmentation	arxiv 2026-06-18	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.61	A Comparative Study of Pretrained Transformer Models for Quranic ASR: Speech Representations, Label Formats, and Dataset Composition	arxiv 2026-06-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	OnDeFog: Online Decision Transformer under Frame Dropping	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	PrefSQA: Pairwise Preference Prediction for Speech Quality Assessment and the Critical Role of High Quality Datasets	arxiv 2026-06-17	232_011 Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.61	Stochastic Linear Contextual Bandits with Bounded Noise: A Set-Membership Approach	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Global Convergence of Gradient Descent for Score Matching in Gaussian Mixtures via Reverse Fisher Divergence	arxiv 2026-06-18	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.61	Federated Bilevel Performative Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	SEAGAN: domain-Specific and Edge-Aware Graph Attention Network for Dynamic Plant Processes	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	On the QUEST for Uncertainty Quantification via Highest Density Regions	arxiv 2026-06-17	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Advances in Scientific Machine Learning for Coupled Fluid Flow and Transport	arxiv 2026-06-17	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Spectral Retrieval-Augmented Time-Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-17	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	Light-weight Pronunciation Assessment via Discrete Speech Token Surprisal	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	Mobile Target Search with Imperfect Perception: A Partially Observable Stochastic Game Theoretical Approach	arxiv 2026-06-18	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	A High-accuracy Event-based Underwater SLAM System	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Operational Tube-Sector Theory of Quantum State Distinguishability Under Generalized Symmetries	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.61	Deriving effective descriptions and signal predictions for dynamical gravitational systems	arxiv 2026-06-17	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.61	Deriving effective descriptions and signal predictions for dynamical gravitational systems	arxiv 2026-06-17	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	FDA ANDA074521: DIPYRIDAMOLE (DIPYRIDAMOLE) — HIKMA	fda 2026-06-04	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.60	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.60	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-10	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.60	Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	235_017 OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	48%
0.60	Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-03-26	247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-31	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 82%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	IND_021 February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... Jack Dorsey	Labor/Jobs	74%
0.60	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-03	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	231_002 Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.60	Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	35%
0.60	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-30	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.60	Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.60	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-03	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-03	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.60	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-16	FUT_002 Mean expert estimate for AGI collapsed from 50-year horizon to ~5 years over a 4-year window leading to mid-2020s — placing expected AGI arrival firmly in 2029-2031 window per Metaculus + 80000 Hours aggregate tracking; quantitative forecasters now ali... Superforecaster Community	AI	40%
0.60	What percentage uptime will the Unofficial GitHub Status Page show for the last 90 Days on May 31st, 2026?	manifold 2026-04-29	234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.60	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-04-28	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Will US average gas price reach $4.300 in May 2026?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-04-27	244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.60	Correspondents Association dinner incident prop bets	manifold 2026-04-26	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.60	If there is an EAGxNordics 2027, where will it take place in?	manifold 2026-04-25	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Intel stock trade above $90 in May, 2026?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-04-23	248_047 Memory companies' stock prices will continue increasing despite algorithmic efficiency gains. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	39%
0.60	Shymkent 2: Sergey Fomin vs Max Hans Rehberg(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60		gdelt 2026-04-30	236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	53%
0.60	article 48a69cbd aa05 5138 b47a b170ddd93981.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_008 Rapid agentic automation of white-collar work could precipitate an employment crisis requiring entirely new tax structures to manage displacement. Dario Amodei	Labor/Jobs	41%
0.60		gdelt 2026-04-30	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	view?ud=2026042915480706790	gdelt 2026-04-30	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.60	usa wyniki gigantow big tech pobily oczekiwania lecz wzbudzily niepokoje o skale wydatkow na ai,1057510.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	231_030 US AI industry needs 80 gigawatts of power in the next 3-5 years (Eric Schmidt cited). Eric Schmidt	Energy	49%
0.60	pharvaris investors directors sale matters 004201595.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.60	used spacex rocket could crash into the moons einstein crater this summer report predicts	gdelt 2026-04-30	241_060 Data centers will be built in space / rockets will carry data centers Peter Diamandis	Space	54%
0.60	elon musk accuses google co 215505716.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	242_003 Musk ecosystem could become first $100 trillion company Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	40%
0.60		gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.60		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.60	solaris energy infrastructure inc q1 123000690.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.60		gdelt 2026-04-30	INF_033 Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regulation: Meta committed $65M to super PACs ('Forge the Future Project', 'Making Our Tomorrow'); a16z backed the $50M 'Leading the Future' PAC — combined $1... Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)	Geopolitics	62%
0.60	were raising our price target on amazon by 50 after killer quarter.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	241_021 America can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildout Eric Schmidt	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.60	Trump out as President before 2027?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2025-11-05	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.60	Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2025-07-22	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.60	Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	243_001 Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.60	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn	Consumer	77%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.60	Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.60	Will Android 17 be officially released to consumers by October 31, 2026?(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-05-01	234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.60	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-01	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 205.5(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.60	Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.60	Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.60	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-03	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.60	Will a Manifolder win the Summer Metaculus Cup(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-04	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will WA SWIS 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$135/MWh?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-05-04	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.60	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket](market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-05-04	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-05-04	CMQ_018 By 2027-2028, the strategic value of superintelligence + impossible trillion-dollar infrastructure cost will trigger government consolidation of AGI development — 'The Project'. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Geopolitics	35%
0.60	Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-04	CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley	Macro/Economy	67%
0.60	Will Alcoa Corporation's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_014 Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. Morgan Stanley	Energy	42%
0.60	Will GameStop buy / aquire eBay until end of 2026?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-05-04	243_028 Joby eVTOL service hopefully coming to US sometime next year (2027) Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	41%
0.60	Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.60	Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 214.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Claude Opus 4.7 METR 50% time horizon	manifold 2026-05-05	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.60	Limitless Markets US approved as a DCM by the CFTC in 2026?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-05-05	237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn	Crypto	43%
0.60	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-05	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	2027 World Snooker Championship winner	manifold 2026-05-04	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-05-04	AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	37%
0.60	Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	48%
0.60	RTX Corp (RTX) (CIK 0000101829)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.60	FDA ANDA217265: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — QILU	fda 2026-04-27	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.60	FDA ANDA211312: DAPAGLIFLOZIN (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — SANDOZ	fda 2026-04-06	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	FDA ANDA078244: ONDANSETRON HYDROCHLORIDE PRESERVATIVE FREE (ONDANSETRON HYDROCHLORIDE) — ONESOURCE SPECIALTY	fda 2026-04-15	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	FDA BLA761235: VABYSMO (FARICIMAB-SVOA) — GENENTECH INC	fda 2026-04-09	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.60	FDA ANDA078582: LEVETIRACETAM (LEVETIRACETAM) — STRIDES PHARMA	fda 2026-04-21	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.60	FDA ANDA090517: VALPROIC ACID (VALPROIC ACID) — QUAGEN	fda 2026-04-17	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	openai/openai-python v2.7.1	github_release 2025-11-04	230_046 OpenAI's Noam Brown has only ~3 months of future model access internally — dramatic capability gap with public. Dave Blundin	AI	43%
0.60	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.2.1	github_release 2022-06-13	232_012 US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. Ben Horowitz	Geopolitics	44%
0.60	huggingface/transformers v5.5.3	github_release 2026-04-09	248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail	Robotics	34%
0.60	huggingface/transformers v4.56.2	github_release 2025-09-17	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.60	huggingface/transformers v4.56.0-Embedding-Gemma-preview	github_release 2025-09-04	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.60	meta-llama/llama-api-typescript v0.2.0	github_release 2025-08-27	237_019 Code generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript instead of Rust for memory safety. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.21.0-rc1	github_release 2026-03-02	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.60	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.20.0	github_release 2025-08-13	CMQ_030 In the modern AI pipeline, the CPU no longer merely supports the model — it drives the model (agentic workloads invert historical CPU:GPU ratio). Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	34%
0.60	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.20.0	github_release 2025-08-13	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.60	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.19.0	github_release 2025-03-12	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.15.0	github_release 2023-11-14	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.60	pytorch/pytorch v2.2.0	github_release 2024-01-30	240_016 Everyone is underestimating the next year of AI improvements (more than 2x gain) Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.60	Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-05	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Canadiens vs. Sabres(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Will "[Linkpost] Interpreting Language Model Parameters" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-06	238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.60	MANIFOLD TURING TEST: Can commenters distinguish snigus's vs CalibratedGhosts's replies ≥75%?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-05	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.60	Detecting Stealth Sycophancy in Mental-Health Dialogue with Dynamic Emotional Signature Graphs	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Compress Then Adapt? No, Do It Together via Task-aware Union of Subspaces	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	SCPRM: A Schema-aware Cumulative Process Reward Model for Knowledge Graph Question Answering	arxiv 2026-05-04	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.60	Fine-Grained Graph Generation through Latent Mixture Scheduling	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Virtual Scanning for NSCLC Histology: Investigating the Discriminatory Power of Synthetic PET	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	On Computing Total Variation Distance Between Mixtures of Product Distributions	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.60	Vanishing L2 regularization for the softmax Multi Armed Bandit	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Predicting missing values: A good idea?	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.60	SURE-RAG: Sufficiency and Uncertainty-Aware Evidence Verification for Selective Retrieval-Augmented Generation	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.60	GRIFDIR: Graph Resolution-Invariant FEM Diffusion Models in Function Spaces over Irregular Domains	arxiv 2026-05-05	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.60	Bandits attack function optimization	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.60	FIBER: A Differentially Private Optimizer with Filter-Aware Innovation Bias Correction	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_014 Most profound impacts of autonomous AI originate NOT from closed proprietary models within multi-billion-dollar corporate data centers, but from globally distributed open-source models — open-weight parity with frontier systems enables any individual o... Emad Mostaque	AI	53%
0.60	Donor-Aware scRNA-seq Benchmarks for IBD Classification	arxiv 2026-05-05	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.60	Attribution-Guided Masking for Robust Cross-Domain Sentiment Classification	arxiv 2026-05-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Learning to Segment using Summary Statistics and Weak Supervision	arxiv 2026-05-04	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.60	Pretraining on Sleep Data Improves non-Sleep Biosignal Tasks	arxiv 2026-05-04	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.60	Effective Performance Measurement: Challenges and Opportunities in KPI Extraction from Earnings Calls	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Semantically Enriching Investor Micro-blogs for Opinion-Aware Emotion Analysis: A Practical Approach	arxiv 2026-05-04	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.60	Leveraging Argument Structure to Predict Content Hatefulness	arxiv 2026-05-04	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.60	EditPropBench: Measuring Factual Edit Propagation in Scientific Manuscripts	arxiv 2026-05-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Task-Aware Scanning Parameter Configuration for Robotic Inspection Using Vision Language Embeddings and Hyperdimensional Computing	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.60	Robust Visual SLAM for UAV Navigation in GPS-Denied and Degraded Environments: A Multi-Paradigm Evaluation and Deployment Study	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.60	DynoSLAM: Dynamic SLAM with Generative Graph Neural Networks for Real-World Social Navigation	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Higher-Order Flexible Configurations of Planar Parallel Manipulators Constructed by Averaging	arxiv 2026-05-04	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.60	ShapeGrasp: Simultaneous Visuo-Haptic Shape Completion and Grasping for Improved Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Modular flow of Celestial Conformal Field Theory	arxiv 2026-05-05	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.60	FDA NDA020944: CHILDREN'S ADVIL (IBUPROFEN) — HALEON US HOLDINGS	fda 2026-05-01	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.60	FDA NDA211243: SPRAVATO (ESKETAMINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — JANSSEN PHARMS	fda 2026-04-13	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.60	Will I attend Manifest 2026?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-05-07	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.60	The First Token Knows: Single-Decode Confidence for Hallucination Detection	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Gyan: An Explainable Neuro-Symbolic Language Model	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Sparse Tokens Suffice: Jailbreaking Audio Language Models via Token-Aware Gradient Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.60	Benchmarking POS Tagging for the Tajik Language: A Comparative Study of Neural Architectures on the TajPersParallel Corpus	arxiv 2026-05-06	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.60	Telegraph English: Semantic Prompt Compression via Structured Symbolic Rewriting	arxiv 2026-05-06	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	FDA ANDA219473: CENOBAMATE (CENOBAMATE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LIMITED	fda 2026-04-28	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.2.3	github_release 2022-12-08	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.60	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.1.1	github_release 2019-04-05	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.60	facebookresearch/faiss v1.13.1	github_release 2025-12-03	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	facebookresearch/faiss v1.13.1	github_release 2025-12-03	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	facebookresearch/balance 0.15.0	github_release 2026-01-20	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.60	O/U 2.5 Rounds(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-04-18	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.60	Will Apple stop selling the $599 MacBook Neo SKU before the end of 2026?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-08	237_004 Mac Mini sales will continue their exponential growth driven by local AI demand. Peter Diamandis	Consumer	55%
0.60	Who will become president first?	manifold 2026-05-07	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.60	Patch-Effect Graph Kernels for LLM Interpretability	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Continuous-Time Distribution Matching for Few-Step Diffusion Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Mind the Gap? A Distributional Comparison of Real and Synthetic Priors for Tabular Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Soft Deterministic Policy Gradient with Gaussian Smoothing	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	In-Context Black-Box Optimization with Unreliable Feedback	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Continuous Expert Assembly: Instance-Conditioned Low-Rank Residuals for All-in-One Image Restoration	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Optimal Transport for LLM Reward Modeling from Noisy Preference	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Adding Thermal Awareness to Visual Systems in Real-Time via Distilled Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	iPhoneBlur: A Difficulty-Stratified Benchmark for Consumer Device Motion Deblurring	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Temporal Smoothness Doubly Robust Learning for Debiased Knowledge Tracing	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.60	Edge-specific signal propagation on mature chromophore-region 3D mechanism graphs for fluorescent protein quantum-yield prediction	arxiv 2026-05-07	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.60	SoftSAE: Dynamic Top-K Selection for Adaptive Sparse Autoencoders	arxiv 2026-05-07	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	How Many Iterations to Jailbreak? Dynamic Budget Allocation for Multi-Turn LLM Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Weight-Decay Turns Transformer Loss Landscapes Villani: Functional-Analytic Foundations for Optimization and Generalization	arxiv 2026-05-07	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.60	Diffusion-Based Posterior Sampling: A Feynman-Kac Analysis of Bias and Stability	arxiv 2026-05-07	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.60	Diffusion-Based Posterior Sampling: A Feynman-Kac Analysis of Bias and Stability	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.60	Hyperbolic Concept Bottleneck Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Eliciting associations between clinical variables from LLMs via comparison questions across populations	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Molecules Meet Language: Confound-Aware Representation Learning and Chemical Property Steering in Transformer-VAE Latent Spaces	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	INEUS: Iterative Neural Solver for High-Dimensional PIDEs	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Sharper Guarantees for Misspecified Kernelized Bandit Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.60	Cited but Not Verified: Parsing and Evaluating Source Attribution in LLM Deep Research Agents	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.60	When2Speak: A Dataset for Temporal Participation and Turn-Taking in Multi-Party Conversations for Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.60	SLAM: Structural Linguistic Activation Marking for Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-06	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.60	SLAM: Structural Linguistic Activation Marking for Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	TouchDrive: Electronics-Free Tactile Sensing Interface for Assistive Grasping	arxiv 2026-05-07	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.60	Passive Fault Tolerance through Tension-to-Thrust Feed-Forward: Hybrid Input-to-State Stability for Decentralized Multi-UAV Slung-Load Transport under Abrupt Cable Severance	arxiv 2026-05-06	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.60	Exponential Quintessence: Analytic Relationship Between the Current Equation of State Parameter and the Potential Parameter	arxiv 2026-05-06	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.60	Exponential Quintessence: Analytic Relationship Between the Current Equation of State Parameter and the Potential Parameter	arxiv 2026-05-06	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.60	Exact solutions, trajectories and radiation patterns in the classical relativistic Störmer problem	arxiv 2026-05-06	230_033 Intelligence explosion shockwave propagates from math → physical sciences → planetary systems, Dyson swarm by early 2030s. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.60	Emergence of conformal properties in Finite Grand Unified Theories via reduction of couplings	arxiv 2026-05-06	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-08	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	price of silver at the end of may?	manifold 2026-05-11	AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	37%
0.60	Will the US unilaterally restructure outstanding Treasury debt (coupon, maturity, swap) by December 31, 2030?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-05-11	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	TERADYNE, INC (TER) (CIK 0000097210)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.60	facebookresearch/spdl v0.0.13	github_release 2025-05-02	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.60	Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $100 on May 21, 2026?(market prob: 89%)	manifold 2026-05-12	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Will Russia gain more territory than it loses in May 2026?(market prob: 54%)	manifold 2026-05-12	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.60	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-12	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	ON SEMICONDUCTOR CORP (ON) (CIK 0001097864)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	FDA NDA019726: ZOLADEX (GOSERELIN ACETATE) — TERSERA	fda 2026-05-06	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	Oil Price (WTI) today?	manifold 2026-05-13	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.60	If the Googlebook is launched, will it still be available a year later?(market prob: 73%)	manifold 2026-05-13	230_005 Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.60	What makes a word hard to learn? Modeling L1 influence on English vocabulary difficulty	arxiv 2026-05-12	AI_005 Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics olympiads while simultaneously failing rudimentary arithmetic and spatial logic; true AGI requires smoothing these jagged edges via continual learning, d... Demis Hassabis	AI	83%
0.60	Instruction Lens Score: Your Instruction Contributes a Powerful Object Hallucination Detector for Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Expected Batch Optimal Transport Plans and Consequences for Flow Matching	arxiv 2026-05-12	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	MULTI: Disentangling Camera Lens, Sensor, View, and Domain for Novel Image Generation	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	STAGE: Tackling Semantic Drift in Multimodal Federated Graph Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Incentivizing Truthfulness and Collaborative Fairness in Bayesian Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Martingale-Consistent Self-Supervised Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Minimax Rates and Spectral Distillation for Tree Ensembles	arxiv 2026-05-12	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.60	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?(market prob: 31%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.60	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 153(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-14	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-14	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR) (CIK 0001816017)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60	Uncertainty-Driven Anomaly Detection for Psychotic Relapse Using Smartwatches: Forecasting and Multi-Task Learning Fusion	arxiv 2026-05-13	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.60	Uncertainty-Driven Anomaly Detection for Psychotic Relapse Using Smartwatches: Forecasting and Multi-Task Learning Fusion	arxiv 2026-05-13	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.60	Uncertainty-Aware Prediction of Lung Tumor Growth from Sparse Longitudinal CT Data via Bayesian Physics-Informed Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-13	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.60	Temper and Tilt Lead to SLOP: Reward Hacking Mitigation with Inference-Time Alignment	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.60	Path-independent Flow Matching for Multi-parameter Generative Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-13	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Path-independent Flow Matching for Multi-parameter Generative Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	Context-Aware Web Attack Detection in Open-Source SIEM Systems via MITRE ATT&CK-Enriched Behavioral Profiling	arxiv 2026-05-13	AI_028 Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey's launch of Bitchat — will become critical infrastructure for verifiable human communication as the internet is flooded with synthetic content and deep... Jack Dorsey	Crypto	28%
0.60	Supervised Deep Multimodal Matrix Factorization for Interpretable Brain Network Analysis	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Supervised Deep Multimodal Matrix Factorization for Interpretable Brain Network Analysis	arxiv 2026-05-13	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Discrete Diffusion for Complex and Congested Multi-Agent Path Finding with Sparse Social Attention	arxiv 2026-05-13	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.60	Rethinking Efficient Graph Coarsening via a Non-Selfishness Principle	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	CRePE: Curved Ray Expectation Positional Encoding for Unified-Camera-Controlled Video Generation	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	FDA BLA761100: ONTRUZANT (TRASTUZUMAB-DTTB) — SAMSUNG BIOEPIS CO LTD	fda 2026-04-15	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.60	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Your CLIP has 164 dimensions of noise: Exploring the embeddings covariance eigenspectrum of contrastively pretrained vision-language transformers	arxiv 2026-05-14	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.60	AIMing for Standardised Explainability Evaluation in GNNs: A Framework and Case Study on Graph Kernel Networks	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	XFP: Quality-Targeted Adaptive Codebook Quantization with Sparse Outlier Separation for LLM Inference	arxiv 2026-05-14	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.60	In-Context Learning for Data-Driven Censored Inventory Control	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_040 AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant global memory suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). Samsung executives	Semis/Memory	62%
0.60	K-Models: a Flexible and Interpretable Method for Ordinal Clustering with Application to Antigen-Antibody Interaction Profiles	arxiv 2026-05-14	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.60	What if Tomorrow is the World Cup Final? Counterfactual Time Series Forecasting with Textual Conditions	arxiv 2026-05-14	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	What if Tomorrow is the World Cup Final? Counterfactual Time Series Forecasting with Textual Conditions	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	TILT: Target-induced loss tilting under covariate shift	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	FDA ANDA215260: SUGAMMADEX (SUGAMMADEX) — TAMARANG SA	fda 2026-05-12	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi	Other	53%
0.60	Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.60	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-16	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	How low will the Marathon World Record go before the end of 2026?	manifold 2026-05-16	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.60	Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision in June?	manifold 2026-05-16	247_015 Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulence Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	46%
0.60	FDA ANDA212069: VASOPRESSIN (VASOPRESSIN) — SANDOZ	fda 2026-05-06	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.60	Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-05-17	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.60	Will "A relatively brief explanation of Boltzmann B..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-05-17	238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.60	Daily Coinflip 🎉(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-18	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.60	Will @jatloe make a comment on this market and @DottedCalculator responds NO to the qeustion that @jatloe made?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-05-18	248_044 Alex: likely user ~1 million of a BCI implant (not 101) once upgradeable. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	39%
0.60	Will Chainlink go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 55%)	manifold 2026-05-18	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Claude 5 released by End of September 2026?(market prob: 78%)	manifold 2026-05-18	247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis	Robotics	32%
0.60	Will Brent crude futures close above $110 on Friday, May 22, 2026?(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-05-16	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.60	ON SEMICONDUCTOR CORP (ON) (CIK 0001097864)	edgar_8k 2026-05-18	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Spread: Knicks (-5.5)(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.60	Which philosophical subfields will be represented by 3+ PhD-holders at Manifest 2026?	manifold 2026-05-18	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.60	Will a quantum computing CEO go to jail before 2030?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-18	S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path	agi_general_capability	35%
0.60	Will TSLA close below $400 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-05-18	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.60	What award will I get on the 2026 AMM?	manifold 2026-05-18	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Vision-OPD: Learning to See Fine Details for Multimodal LLMs via On-Policy Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.60	Learned Memory Attenuation in Sage-Husa Kalman Filters for Robust UAV State Estimation	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Distilling Tabular Foundation Models for Structured Health Data	arxiv 2026-05-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Learning Quantifiable Visual Explanations Without Ground-Truth	arxiv 2026-05-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Modality vs. Morphology: A Framework for Time Series Classification for Biological Signals	arxiv 2026-05-18	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.60	Generalized Functional ANOVA in Closed-Form: A Unified View of Additive Explanations	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.60	Spherical Harmonic Optimal Transport: Application to Climate Models Comparisons	arxiv 2026-05-18	241_054 Space wins by far on energy argument for data centers Peter Diamandis	Space	54%
0.60	TabH2O: A Unified Foundation Model for Tabular Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.60	Beyond Square Roots: Explicit Memory-Efficient Factorization for Multi-Epoch Private Learning	arxiv 2026-05-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Prune, Update and Trim: Robust Structured Pruning for Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-18	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	Subject-Specific Analysis of Self-Initiated Attention Shifts from EEG with Controlled Internal and External Attention Conditions	arxiv 2026-05-18	248_033 Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. Dave Blundin	AI	37%
0.60	Elastic-dLLM: Position Preserving Context Compression and Augmentation of Diffusion LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-18	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.60	pyforce-1.0.0: Python Framework for data-driven model Order Reduction of multi-physiCs problEms	arxiv 2026-05-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	FLAG: Foundation model representation with Latent diffusion Alignment via Graph for spatial gene expression prediction	arxiv 2026-05-18	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.60	SNLP: Layer-Parallel Inference via Structured Newton Corrections	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Balancing Knowledge Distillation for Imbalance Learning with Bilevel Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-18	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.60	Uncertainty-Calibrated Recommendations for Low-Active Users	arxiv 2026-05-18	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.60	Learning Variable-Length Tokenization for Generative Recommendation	arxiv 2026-05-18	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.60	How does feature learning reshape the function space?	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	FDA ANDA218691: CEFIXIME (CEFIXIME) — FDC LTD	fda 2026-05-14	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2026-05-31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-20	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.60	Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-30	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Will Bricks and Minifigs corporate declare bankruptcy in the USA by the end of 2029?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-27	S_RECESSION_2026 NBER recession declared 2026	macro_recession	20%
0.60	What will the sum of all of my AP scores be?	manifold 2026-05-26	230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.60	Who will win the Washington 3rds House election in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-26	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	35%
0.60	Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR) (CIK 0001816017)	edgar_8k 2026-05-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60	Do Language Models Track Entities Across State Changes?	arxiv 2026-05-28	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.60	Beyond MSE: Improving Precipitation Nowcasting with Multi-Quantile Regression	arxiv 2026-05-28	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.60	Beyond MSE: Improving Precipitation Nowcasting with Multi-Quantile Regression	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.60	Beyond MSE: Improving Precipitation Nowcasting with Multi-Quantile Regression	arxiv 2026-05-28	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	Alignment-Guided Score Matching for Text-to-Image Alignment in Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Citation-Closure Retrieval and Per-Rule Attribution for Real-World Regulatory Compliance Question Answering	arxiv 2026-05-28	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.60	Personalized Turn-Level User Conversation Satisfaction Benchmark	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_015 The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen resumes generated by other bot agents, completely removing the human connection required to accurately assess contextual experience — bot-on-bot recursive... Emad Mostaque	Labor/Jobs	86%
0.60	ExDBSCAN: Explaining DBSCAN with Counterfactual Reasoning -- Additional Material	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Active Continual Learning with Metaplastic Binary Bayesian Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Joint Model and Data Sparsification via the Marginal Likelihood	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Feedback-to-Rubrics: Can We Learn Expert Criteria from Inline Comments?	arxiv 2026-05-28	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	A Systematic Evaluation of Molecular Mixture Behavior Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-28	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.60	Cluster-Level Attention-Guided Parallel Decoding for Masked Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	Cluster-Level Attention-Guided Parallel Decoding for Masked Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	Audio Deepfake Detection with Half-Truth Localisation Using Cross-Attentive Feature Fusion	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of Markov Boundary for Tabular Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	CommunityFact: A Dynamic, Multilingual, Multi-domain Benchmark for Misinformation Detection in the Wild	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.60	Metric-Dependent Annotation Saturation for Learning from Label Distributions	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Classification of non-analyzable word types in web documents to implement an effective Korean e-learning system	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Comparative Evaluation of Machine Translation Systems on Images with Text	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Casual as an Anchor: Resolving Supervision Misalignment in Formality Transfer Dataset	arxiv 2026-05-28	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.60	Parallax: Parameterized Local Linear Attention for Language Modeling	arxiv 2026-05-27	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Gaze2Act: Gaze-Conditioned Vision-Language-Action Policies for Interactive Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	FDA ANDA091404: MEROPENEM (MEROPENEM) — ACS DOBFAR	fda 2026-05-20	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	FDA NDA219943: KOSELUGO (SELUMETINIB) — ASTRAZENECA	fda 2026-05-26	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.60	Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.60	Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-25	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.60	Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.60	FDA BLA761170: PHESGO (PERTUZUMAB, TRASTUZUMAB, AND HYALURONIDASE-ZZXF) — GENENTECH INC	fda 2026-05-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01?(market prob: 86%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.60	Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.60	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-01	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	FDA NDA209816: NUZYRA (OMADACYCLINE TOSYLATE) — PARATEK PHARMS	fda 2026-05-13	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	Starmer out by June 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.60	Will Haiti win on 2026-06-02?(market prob: 31%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.60	Will Haiti win on 2026-06-02?(market prob: 31%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will M80 win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will Sydney Metro exceed 70,000,000 trips taken in 2026?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-30	243_031 Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US Dara Khosrowshahi	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.60	HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd. (HIVE) (CIK 0001720424)	edgar_8k 2026-06-02	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.60	Forget Attention: Importance-Aware Attention Is All You Need	arxiv 2026-06-01	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.60	Towards Resolving Optimization Conflicts Between Image- and Text-Based Person Re-Identification	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	A Structured Benchmark for Text-Guided Anomaly Detection: When Language Stops Conditioning the Decision	arxiv 2026-06-01	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.60	Learning Implicit Bias in Generative Spaces for Accelerating Protein Dynamics Emulation	arxiv 2026-06-01	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.60	Structure-Guided Adaptive Propagation for Protein-Protein Interaction Site Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Understanding Identity Continuity in Thermal Video through Scene-Level Consistency	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.60	Doing well with less! On Sampling Techniques for Empirical Pairwise Loss Estimation/Minimization	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Network Learning with Semi-relaxed Gromov-Wasserstein	arxiv 2026-06-01	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Hybrid Neural Ordinary Differential Equations for Data-Efficient Polymerization Modeling with Incomplete Kinetics	arxiv 2026-06-01	238_055 Marginal cost of production will approach zero for most goods (molecular manufacturing + 3D printing) Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	50%
0.60	The Lie We Tell: Correcting the Euclidean Fallacy in Vision Language Action Policies via Score Matching on Tangent Space	arxiv 2026-06-01	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.60	GPTQ-intrinsic LoRA: A Near-optimal Algorithm for Low-precision Quantization with Low-rank Adaptation	arxiv 2026-05-31	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	On the Salience of Low-Probability Tokens for AI-Generated Text Detection: A Multiscale Uncertainty Perspective	arxiv 2026-06-01	247_053 AI's largest risk to Bitcoin is irrelevance via AI agents not using it Alex Wissner-Gross	Crypto	38%
0.60	Mechanistic Diagnostics of Spatial Lexical Bias in Multimodal Large Language Model Spatial Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-01	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.60	Will there be a live action planecrash adaptation before 2029? (Including in development)(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-06-03	242_013 Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	55%
0.60	Will there be a live action planecrash adaptation before 2029? (Including in development)(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-06-03	CMQ_050 Physical embodied AI represents the 'Fourth Wave' of AI development — projected to scale rapidly and commercially between 2025-2030. Industry analysts (synthesis)	Robotics	41%
0.60	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-03	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	When will Manifest 2026 upload videos of presentations to Youtube?	manifold 2026-06-03	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.60	Will I comment on this market? [Creator won't bet](market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-06-01	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.60	Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open?(market prob: 78%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.60	Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 5?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.60	Will Solana dip to $60 June 1-7?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.60	Best METR 80% Time Horizon before August 2026	manifold 2026-06-04	CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei	AI	28%
0.60	How many billionaires will New York City lose in 2026?	manifold 2026-06-04	244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.60	Will Haiti win on 2026-06-05?(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.60	Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 6?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.60	Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 6?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.60	O/U 2.5 Rounds(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will I get into any MATS tracks in the Autumn 2026 cohort?(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-06-03	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.60	In-Context Multiple Instance Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.60	Plug-and-Play Guidance for Discrete Diffusion Models via Gradient-Informed Logit Correction	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.60	TAM: Torque Adaptation Module for Robust Motion Transfer in Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	MDP-GRPO: Stabilized Group Relative Policy Optimization for Multi-Constraint Instruction Following	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Better Literary Translation: A Multi-Aspect Data Generation and LLM Training Approach	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.60	Reducing Hallucinations in Complex Question Answering using Simple Graph-based Retrieval-Augmented Generation (long version)	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.60	Next-Generation Parallel Decoder for LPDR: Architectural Optimization and Class-Balanced GAN-Augmentation	arxiv 2026-06-04	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	DRIFT: A Residual Flow Adapter for Decoding Continuous Outputs in Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	MARDoc: A Memory-Aware Refinement Agent Framework for Multimodal Long Document QA	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	FIDES: Faithful Inference via Deep Evidence Signals for Retrieval-Memory Conflict in RAG	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	FIDES: Faithful Inference via Deep Evidence Signals for Retrieval-Memory Conflict in RAG	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.60	DAS-PINNs for high-dimensional partial differential equations: extending deep adaptive sampling to spacetime domains	arxiv 2026-06-04	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.60	Learning to model pediatric asthma exacerbation from multiple risk factors: a case study in coastal Virginia	arxiv 2026-06-04	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.60	Online KL-Regularized Reinforcement Learning with Function Approximation under Misspecification	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.60	Finding Most Influential Sets	arxiv 2026-06-04	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	MolE-RAG: Molecular Structure-Enhanced Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Chemistry	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.60	Diff2SP: Diffusion Models for Correlated Scenario Generation in Stochastic Programming	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	Dominant-Layer ZO: A Single Layer Dominates Zeroth-Order Fine-Tuning of LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-03	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.60	DP-MacAdam: Differentially Private Mechanism with Adaptive Clipping and Adaptive Momentum	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.60	Ouvia: A User-centered Framework for Measuring Usability of Speech Translation in Real-World Communication Scenarios	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.60	Self-supervised User Profile Generation for Personalization	arxiv 2026-06-03	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	A Model of Multi-turn Human Persuadability Using Probabilistic Belief Tracing	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Beyond Text Following: Repairable Arbitration Reversals in Audio-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.60	Unpaired RGB-Thermal Gaussian-Splatting Using Visual Geometric Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	FDA NDA212927: TIOCYSTIN (TIOPRONIN) — CASPER PHARMA LLC	fda 2026-06-02	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06?(market prob: 88%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06?(market prob: 88%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.60	Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06?(market prob: 65%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Will May 2026 headline CPI rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-06-03	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	QuantumScape Corp (QS) (CIK 0001811414)	edgar_8k 2026-06-05	247_039 Quantum not a risk to Bitcoin; Saylor is 100% right Dave Blundin	Crypto	54%
0.60	Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-07	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Will AMM 2026 release scores next week?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-06	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.60	Do you like 42% odds?(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-06-06	244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.60	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.60	What will Xinyuan Zhou make?	manifold 2026-06-07	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.60	facebookresearch/detectron2 v0.2	github_release 2020-07-08	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.60	facebookresearch/detectron2 v0.1.3	github_release 2020-05-17	238_025 AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level Emad Mostaque	AI	45%
0.60	Planning-aligned Token Compression for Long-Context Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	Off-Policy Evaluation with Strategic Agents via Local Disclosure	arxiv 2026-06-05	AI_016 The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an AI experience curve enables bulk problem-solving across engineering, medicine, and mathematics at a fraction of historical compute costs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	82%
0.60	GP-Adapter: Gaussian Process CLIP-Adapter for Few-Shot Out-of-Distribution Detection	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Drifting Models for Surrogate Flow Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Structure-Preserving Correction Learning for Sparse Bayesian Inference in Brain Source Imaging	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Explaining Unsupervised Disease Staging in Huntington's Disease: Insights into Model Representations and Clusters	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	A machine-learning-assisted progressive digit-randomness screening framework for detecting non-random patterns in raw numerical research data	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.60	GRASP: Geometry-aware Residual Alignment for Scalable Pretraining Data Attribution	arxiv 2026-06-05	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	HKVM-RAG: Key-Value-Separated Hypergraph Evidence Organization for Multi-Hop RAG	arxiv 2026-06-05	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.60	T-GMP: Terrain-conditioned Generative Motion Priors for Versatile and Natural Humanoid Locomotion	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.60	Three-dimensional hydro-cluttered locomotion by an undulatory robot	arxiv 2026-06-05	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.60	Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-22	IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	22%
0.60	Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.60	Beam Therapeutics Inc. (BEAM) (CIK 0001745999)	edgar_8k 2026-06-08	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.60	FDA ANDA202778: DOXYCYCLINE (DOXYCYCLINE) — STRIDES PHARMA	fda 2026-05-27	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will there be more than 150 goals scored in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-06-09	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.60	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-09	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	ATN3D: Density-Aware LiDAR-Radar Early 3D Object Detection Under Extreme Sparsity	arxiv 2026-06-08	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.60	Next-Token Prediction Learns Generalisable Representations of Sleep Physiology	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.60	SIFT: Selective-Index For Fast Compute of RAG Prefill by Exploiting Attention Invariance	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.60	SAILS: Surrogate-based Analysis of Interactions via Local Effect Smooths	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.60	Conan-embedding-v3: Fusing Modality-Specific Models for Omni-Modal Embedding	arxiv 2026-06-08	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.60	SEF-CLGC at SemEval-2026 Task 11: Logical Notation Impact on Language Model Performance	arxiv 2026-06-08	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.60	CARE: A Conformal Safety Layer for Medical Summarization	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.60	NutriMLLM: Multimodal Large Language Models for Dietary Micronutrient Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.60	Rethinking the Divergence Regularization in LLM RL	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Perturbative Contrastive Physical Learning	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.60	Evaluating the Representation Space of Diffusion Models via Self-Supervised Principles	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Alcmean's: Unsupervised community detection using local Laplacian, automatic detection of the number of centers	arxiv 2026-06-08	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.60	Continuous Language Diffusion as a Decoder-Interface Problem	arxiv 2026-06-07	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	Hierarchical Projection for Adaptive Knowledge Transfer	arxiv 2026-06-07	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.60	OrderDP: A Theoretically Guaranteed Lossless Dynamic Data Pruning Framework	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Is Text All You Need? Text as a Universal Information Bottleneck for Speech LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Multilingual Sentiment Aware Text Summarization A Reinforcement Learning Approach for Consistency Maintenance	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Detection and Interpretability Analysis of Quotation Errors by Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-07	231_007 AI will analyze scientific literature and shock humanity by revealing wrong turns made over the past century. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	A Joint Finite-Sample Certificate for Adaptive Selective Conformal Risk Control	arxiv 2026-06-07	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.60	TrustMargin: Training-Free Arbitration between Parametric Memory and Retrieved Evidence in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Physics-Aware Sparse Learning and Selective Online Adaptation for Euler-Lagrange Robot Dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Autonomous FPV Flight with Translational Optical Flow and Uncertainty Mask	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	RGB-S: Image-Aligned Tactile Saliency for Robust Dexterous Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Electromagnetism from two matter spaces: mutual helicity and the nondegenerate completion	arxiv 2026-06-08	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.60	Is Exact Markovianity Fundamental Once Time Is Relational?	arxiv 2026-06-07	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.60	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.60	[Meta Market] Winner's Stage of Goals (+HC)	manifold 2026-06-10	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.60	Will somebody perform an assassination attempt on Mark Zuckerberg before 2028?(market prob: 23%)	manifold 2026-06-10	SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk	AI/AGI	19%
0.60	FADA: Accessible fetal ultrasound interpretation and annotation with a selectively distilled unified vision-language model	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Architect-Ant: Editable Automatic Furnishing of Architectural Floor Plans	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Detecting Speculative Language in Biomedical Texts using Recurrent Neural Tensor Networks	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	UPLOTS: A Unified Pretrained Language Model for Constrained Time-series Generation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	KG-SoftMAP: Soft Knowledge-Graph Priors for Bayesian Network Structure Learning from Sparse Discrete Data	arxiv 2026-06-09	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.60	Building Change Detection in Earthquake: A Multi-Scale Interaction Network and A Change Detection Dataset	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Building Change Detection in Earthquake: A Multi-Scale Interaction Network and A Change Detection Dataset	arxiv 2026-06-09	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.60	Mobility Anomaly Generation using LLM-Driven Behavior with Kinematic Constraints	arxiv 2026-06-09	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.60	Linguistically Augmented Audio Speech Data (LinguAS)	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.60	MetaPlate: Counterfactual-Guided RAG-LLM Tool for Personalized Food Recommendation and Hyperglycemia Prevention	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Emotion Profiling in LLM-Based Literary Translation: Systematic Shifts Across MT and Post-Editing	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Emotion Profiling in LLM-Based Literary Translation: Systematic Shifts Across MT and Post-Editing	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Generalized Conformal Predictive Systems Under Distributional Shifts	arxiv 2026-06-09	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%