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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.57	Fast Nonparametric Conditional Independence Testing via Two-Stage Regression	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.57	A fairness-aware extension of Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis for ranking	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.57	Another Look at Log-PCA for Probability Measures: A Dynamical Formulation and Statistical Convergence	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.57	The free boundary problem in general relativity	arxiv 2026-06-16	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	The Pre-geometric Origin of Geometric Trinity of Gravity	arxiv 2026-06-16	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Supersymmetric geometry in non-supersymmetric effective field theory	arxiv 2026-06-15	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.57	Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.57	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? (market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner	Energy	57%
0.57	Will Cameron Young win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.57	Talen Energy Corp (TLN) (CIK 0001622536)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.57	HELIOS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (HLIO) (CIK 0001024795)	edgar_8k 2026-06-17	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.57	INNODATA INC (INOD) (CIK 0000903651)	edgar_8k 2026-06-17	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Shrinkage priors for Bayesian Substitute Confounders	arxiv 2026-06-16	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.57	MCompassRAG: Topic Metadata as a Semantic Compass for Paragraph-Level Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.57	Diffractive Production of Heavy Quarkonia at the Electron Ion Collider	arxiv 2026-06-17	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.57	SUSY meets pseudo-Hermiticity	arxiv 2026-06-17	240_032 PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	SUSY meets pseudo-Hermiticity	arxiv 2026-06-17	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.57	Will Max Clark win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5(market prob: 75%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	Pourrait il avoir un attentat au USA pendant la coupe du monde 2026?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-06-19	FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan	Macro/Economy	72%
0.57	Do you like 62% odds?(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-06-18	234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.57	Do you like 62% odds?(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-06-18	244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.57	Structuring and Tokenizing Distributed User Interest Context for Generative Recommendation	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.57	Exploring Feature Extraction Technique Parameters for Acoustic Gunshot Classification	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.57	The Token Is a Group Element: On Lie-Algebra Attention over Matrix Lie Groups	arxiv 2026-06-18	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	ReNikud: Audio-Supervised Hebrew Grapheme-to-Phoneme Conversion	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.57	Evolving Dark Energy Is Vacuum Energy After All	arxiv 2026-06-18	230_033 Intelligence explosion shockwave propagates from math → physical sciences → planetary systems, Dyson swarm by early 2030s. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	Reheating as a variational probe of cosmological observables	arxiv 2026-06-17	248_037 State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	10%
0.57	Partial-wave unitarity and long-range interactions	arxiv 2026-06-17	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.57	FDA BLA761149: ENSPRYNG (SATRALIZUMAB) — GENENTECH	fda 2026-06-10	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.57	Spread: Spain (-2.5)(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Will JT Poston win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Will LeBron James play for the Phoenix Suns in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2025-12-19	247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis	AI	71%
0.57	Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	FDA BLA761262: SKYRIZI (RISANKIZUMAB-RZAA) — ABBVIE INC	fda 2026-06-12	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	FDA NDA021130: ZYVOX (LINEZOLID) — PFIZER	fda 2026-06-09	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.57	Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics(market prob: 27%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.57	Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	How many psets does x do?	manifold 2026-06-21	242_046 Custom chip designs per use case will unlock 10x+ efficiency improvements Dave Blundin	AI	43%
0.57	Free Lottery (dark matter & banana)(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-06-21	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.57	Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	IND_011 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... Jason Calacanis	Macro/Economy	58%
0.57	Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Will silver hit $60/ oz by close on Friday?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-06-22	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA) (CIK 0001507605)	edgar_8k 2026-06-22	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.57	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.57	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-03	237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn	Crypto	43%
0.57	LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.57	LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.57	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-31	INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner	Energy	57%
0.57	Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Abidjan 2: Gauthier Onclin vs Massimo Giunta(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei	AI	28%
0.57	Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.57	Scientology Run Prop Bets [ADD ANSWERS]	manifold 2026-04-28	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	What will the national average gas price be on June 1st?	manifold 2026-04-28	242_020 Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K Elon Musk	Auto/Transport	31%
0.57	Will the Vancouver Whitecaps be relocated before the end of 2034?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-04-28	237_025 We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. Peter Diamandis	AI	59%
0.57	Name something fashionable that people wear even though it’s super uncomfy. (Bilt Rent Free May 1, 2026)	manifold 2026-04-28	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	Will "Update on the Alex Bores campaign" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-04-27	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.57	Will Argentina start another war over the Falklands before April 2027?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-04-26	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.57	VALVE?!(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-04-23	232_019 AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. Ben Horowitz	AI	51%
0.57	Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.57	Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	article a6c09fe7 016b 5319 a647 f8cfb00df1db.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	article 3ba70d79 6952 58b3 b9c5 bc743d7ed167.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	microsoft delivers a promising quarter but cant shake software fears.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.57	microsoft delivers a promising quarter but cant shake software fears.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	in clarifying testimony about openai elon musk says i literally was a fool 2000752455	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57		gdelt 2026-04-30	230_044 Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. Peter Diamandis	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	alphabet tops quarterly revenue and profit estimates on google cloud surge 1091452.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	CYB_028 The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... Mark Cuban	Markets/Stocks	48%
0.57	article f49fcfcc 4f09 5d2c b3ac b07e113a3248.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	article ca552487 4402 5a81 b6d9 dc82aa416d0a.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_025 The entire global installed base of data centers must be ripped out and replaced — legacy DCs unfit for AI factory workloads. Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	49%
0.57	Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Spread: Celtics (-6.5)(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Spread: Celtics (-6.5)(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Will US Average Gas Prices rise or fall 10 cents in one day in May 2026?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-04-30	242_021 Autonomous ride costs will drop 10x vs today Dave Blundin	Auto/Transport	48%
0.57	Will there be another Crank movie released by the end of 2030?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-04-25	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs(market prob: 65%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	Sabres vs. Bruins(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.57	Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.57	Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.57	Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	50%
0.57	Which Bernie Sanders endorsees will win their 2026 primaries?	manifold 2026-05-01	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Will a Chinese airline announce a purchase of at least 25 Boeing aircraft before June?(market prob: 54%)	manifold 2026-04-30	234_014 We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	59%
0.57	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Raptors vs. Cavaliers(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	Spread: Celtics (-6.5)(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.57	Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	50%
0.57	Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-04	SEM_016 Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chain resilience. David Friedberg	Semis/Geopolitics	24%
0.57	How many members will the UK Labour Party have at the start of 2029?	manifold 2026-05-02	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.57	Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Valorant: LOUD vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	SEM_003 Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Energy/Compute	86%
0.57	Games Total: O/U 3.5(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.57	76ers vs. Knicks(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Counter-Strike: TDK vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group Stage(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn	Crypto	43%
0.57	Will Jannik Sinner play in Rome M1000 2026(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-05-03	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.57	What will happen during Claude Opus 4.7 Plays Pokemon?	manifold 2026-05-03	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?(market prob: 80%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn	Crypto	43%
0.57	Will Hindalco Industries's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 1.4 million tonnes?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-04	247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.57	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-05-04	236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	35%
0.57	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Federico Cina vs Alexander Blockx(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 214.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.57	Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) (CIK 0001679788)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER CO INC (AEP) (CIK 0000004904)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	CMQ_024 'Tokens per Watt' is the defining Key Performance Indicator (KPI) for the modern digital economy. Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	54%
0.57	CENTRUS ENERGY CORP (LEU) (CIK 0001065059)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) (CIK 0001736297)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.57	Senseonics Holdings, Inc. (SENS) (CIK 0001616543)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	61%
0.57	FDA ANDA091427: PAROXETINE HYDROCHLORIDE (PAROXETINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA USA	fda 2026-04-06	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	FDA BLA125261: STELARA (USTEKINUMAB) — CENTOCOR ORTHO BIOTECH INC	fda 2026-04-15	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	61%
0.57	FDA NDA206709: DIACOMIT (STIRIPENTOL) — BIOCODEX SA	fda 2026-04-15	TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event	—	15%
0.57	FDA ANDA218740: CETRORELIX ACETATE (CETRORELIX ACETATE) — HUMANWELL	fda 2026-04-29	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.57	FDA NDA217369: ZURZUVAE (ZURANOLONE) — BIOGEN INC	fda 2026-04-20	IND_012 NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a decade — Evo 2 achieves 90% accuracy in BRCA1 predictions; AI models will seamlessly transition generated biological designs into practical, synthesized clinical... Jensen Huang	Biotech/Longevity	68%
0.57	FDA ANDA216068: ENZALUTAMIDE (ENZALUTAMIDE) — SANDOZ	fda 2026-04-20	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.57	FDA BLA761298: PAVBLU (AFLIBERCEPT-AYYH) — AMGEN INC	fda 2026-04-28	IND_012 NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a decade — Evo 2 achieves 90% accuracy in BRCA1 predictions; AI models will seamlessly transition generated biological designs into practical, synthesized clinical... Jensen Huang	Biotech/Longevity	68%
0.57	FDA NDA020310: NIZORAL ANTI-DANDRUFF (KETOCONAZOLE) — KRAMER	fda 2026-04-30	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	huggingface/transformers v4.57.1	github_release 2025-10-14	240_021 Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	meta-llama/llama-api-typescript v0.3.0	github_release 2025-10-01	237_018 We are seeing a Cambrian explosion of OpenClaw variants (PicoClaw, IronClaw, NanoClaw, Nanobot, etc.) with many more to come. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	meta-llama/llama-api-typescript v0.2.0	github_release 2025-08-27	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.57	meta-llama/llama-api-typescript v0.1.3	github_release 2025-08-13	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.57	pytorch/pytorch v1.10.2	github_release 2022-01-27	240_021 Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	1x-technologies/halodi-unity-package-creator 0.2.2	github_release 2020-05-22	COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	27%
0.57	1x-technologies/halodi-unity-package-registry-manager 1.0.5	github_release 2023-08-30	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.57	Spread: Knicks (-10.5)(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will GameStop acquire eBay?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	20%
0.57	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.57	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	In which months will there be a day the US gas average is at $4 or below?	manifold 2026-05-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Towards Open World Sound Event Detection	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.57	Large-Scale High-Quality 3D Gaussian Head Reconstruction from Multi-View Captures	arxiv 2026-05-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.57	Graph Reconstruction from Differentially Private GNN Explanations	arxiv 2026-05-05	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.57	CLaC at SemEval-2026 Task 6: Response Clarity Detection in Political Discourse	arxiv 2026-05-04	239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk	AI	47%
0.57	Exact Higher-Order Derivatives for SE(3) via Analytical/AD Methods	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.57	Quasinormal modes and continuum response of de Sitter black holes via complex scaling method	arxiv 2026-05-05	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	The free energy limit of the SYK model at high temperature	arxiv 2026-05-04	234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.57	FDA ANDA210456: MULTIPLE VITAMINS INJECTION PEDIATRIC (PHARMACY BULK PACKAGE) (ASCORBIC ACID) — APOTEX	fda 2026-04-21	245_009 Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	45%
0.57	FDA NDA218390: INGREZZA SPRINKLE (VALBENAZINE TOSYLATE) — NEUROCRINE	fda 2026-04-08	245_009 Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	45%
0.57	FDA ANDA210111: POMALIDOMIDE (POMALIDOMIDE) — BRECKENRIDGE	fda 2026-04-27	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA ANDA215336: LEUPROLIDE ACETATE (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — AMNEAL	fda 2026-05-06	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.57	FDA ANDA218417: DEXTROMETHORPHAN POLISTIREX (DEXTROMETHORPHAN POLISTIREX) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-04-15	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA ANDA206863: DALFAMPRIDINE (DALFAMPRIDINE) — ACCORD HLTHCARE	fda 2026-04-20	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.57	FDA ANDA210154: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — ZYDUS PHARMS	fda 2026-04-27	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.57	FDA ANDA217957: LEUPROLIDE ACETATE (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — UBI	fda 2026-05-06	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.57	FDA ANDA091655: ESCITALOPRAM OXALATE (ESCITALOPRAM OXALATE) — MICRO LABS	fda 2026-04-22	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.57	FDA ANDA219755: DAPAGLIFLOZIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (DAPAGLIFLOZIN, METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE) — INVENTIA HEALTHCARE LIMITED	fda 2026-04-09	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Spread: Thunder (-14.5)(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.57	Hantavirus Pandemic 2026-2027?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-05-07	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.57	TabEmbed: Benchmarking and Learning Generalist Embeddings for Tabular Understanding	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.57	A Comparative Study of PyCaret AutoML and CNN-BiLSTM for Binary Hate Speech Detection in Indonesian Twitter	arxiv 2026-05-06	AI_028 Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey's launch of Bitchat — will become critical infrastructure for verifiable human communication as the internet is flooded with synthetic content and deep... Jack Dorsey	Crypto	28%
0.57	Gradients with Respect to Semantics Preserving Embeddings Tell the Uncertainty of Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	FDA BLA761340: EPYSQLI (ECULIZUMAB-AAGH) — SAMSUNG BIOEPIS CO LTD	fda 2026-04-28	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.57	FDA BLA761349: COSENTYX (SECUKINUMAB) — NOVARTIS PHARMS CORP	fda 2026-04-17	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	facebookresearch/faiss v1.11.0	github_release 2025-04-25	CYB_004 The Agentic AI Foundation (AAIF) under the Linux Foundation — backed by Dorsey plus major cloud providers and AI labs — will establish vendor-neutral open-governance protocols for agent orchestration, ensuring critical 2030s infrastructure is not monop... Jack Dorsey	AI	58%
0.57	facebookresearch/balance 0.20.0	github_release 2026-04-26	230_031 We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across many fields starting now. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.33.post1	github_release 2025-11-13	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.57	Dota 2: PARIVISION vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	How many people will say happy birthday to me? [Gapped Buckets]	manifold 2026-05-08	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Continuous Latent Diffusion Language Model	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.57	Retina-RAG: Retrieval-Augmented Vision-Language Modeling for Joint Retinal Diagnosis and Clinical Report Generation	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.57	Hybrid Quantum-Classical GANs for the Generation of Adversarial Network Flows	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.57	Transformers Efficiently Perform In-Context Logistic Regression via Normalized Gradient Descent	arxiv 2026-05-07	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.57	Distributionally-Robust Learning to Optimize	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.57	SparseForge: Efficient Semi-Structured LLM Sparsification via Annealing of Hessian-Guided Soft-Mask	arxiv 2026-05-07	242_011 New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 years Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.57	Beyond Rigid Alignment: Graph Federated Learning via Dual Manifold Calibration	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Beyond Rigid Alignment: Graph Federated Learning via Dual Manifold Calibration	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Predictive-Generative Drift Decomposition for Speech Enhancement and Separation	arxiv 2026-05-07	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.57	When Brain Networks Travel: Learning Beyond Site	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.57	Challenges to Understanding Celestial Holography from the Bottom Up	arxiv 2026-05-06	234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.57	Inflation and topology from the no-boundary state	arxiv 2026-05-06	236_034 Rapid inflation in near-term from UBI money printing, then rapid deflation from AI/robotics Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	50%
0.57	Positivity of the gravitational path integral implies the axionic weak gravity conjecture	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Quantum Entanglement in the Dirac Field Quantization around Charged Black Holes	arxiv 2026-05-06	247_037 Quantum computing will not break Bitcoin (Mike Saylor position) Michael Saylor	Crypto	54%
0.57	Gravitational multipoles from scattering amplitudes in higher dimensions	arxiv 2026-05-06	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	FDA ANDA213912: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — MYLAN	fda 2026-04-27	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 212.5(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.57	UEFA Champions League: Unbeaten Champion(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-02-19	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Which Party will win the 2026 Vermont Gubernatorial Election?	manifold 2026-05-09	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	Will https://vivarium.sh/ still exist by EOY2028(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-07	240_052 Uploading consciousness (whole brain emulation) really will be you in the future Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	41%
0.57	Where will Jet Lag The Game Season 19 take place	manifold 2026-05-06	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	FDA ANDA218840: CALCIUM GLUCONATE (CALCIUM GLUCONATE) — CAPLIN	fda 2026-05-04	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.57	New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC end in a draw?(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Sabres vs. Canadiens(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis	AI	48%
0.57	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.57	Valorant: LOUD vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore	Semis/Products	71%
0.57	Will Sean Strickland become UFC champion in 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-12-29	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.57	Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-11-11	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Game Handicap: TOG (-1.5) vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will SF Prop A, June 2026, pass?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-05-11	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-05-11	236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	35%
0.57	Free Lottery (Cosmic Explorer)(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-05-11	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	What Party will win the 2026 Wyoming Gubernatorial Election?	manifold 2026-05-10	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	GENERAL DYNAMICS CORP (GD) (CIK 0000040533)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.57	HELIOS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (HLIO) (CIK 0001024795)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) (CIK 0001780312)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	TK15 SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure	—	12%
0.57	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-03-31	ROB_011 An Optimus unit will be sent to Mars by 2026 — signaling the role of autonomous robotics in extraterrestrial colonization and intertwining robotic + interplanetary expansion; robotic precursors precede biological humans in planetary exploration. Elon Musk	Space	11%
0.57	Sabres vs. Canadiens(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis	AI	48%
0.57	Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13?(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	238_024 AI token speed will jump from ~50 tokens/sec to ~1,000 tokens/sec (Cerebras) Emad Mostaque	AI	37%
0.57	Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 78%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-03	242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.57	Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2025-11-28	239_021 Money will stop being relevant at some point Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	35%
0.57	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.57	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.57	What will my Zetamac score (average of 5) be in a week?	manifold 2026-05-11	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.57	Nextpower Inc. (NXT) (CIK 0001852131)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	FDA ANDA078982: LAMOTRIGINE (LAMOTRIGINE) — GRANULES	fda 2026-04-30	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.57	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.5.5	github_release 2024-09-26	231_002 Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.5.5	github_release 2024-09-26	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.57	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.5.4	github_release 2024-08-05	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.57	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.5.2	github_release 2024-06-14	234_004 Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.57	Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14?(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14?(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-04-22	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.57	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Who will be Central Java rank 1 on the provincial round of 2026 Indonesia National Math Olympiad?	manifold 2026-05-13	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Xi JinPing visits USA before July 31?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-13	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.57	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? [Polymarket](market prob: 1%)	manifold 2026-05-13	240_027 SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	74%
0.57	AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES INC (AKAM) (CIK 0001086222)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	CMQ_028 NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026). Jensen Huang	Semis	72%
0.57	LoL: GIANTX vs Solary - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google	AI	46%
0.57	Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 15%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.57	Will Trump Leave China on May 15?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.57	This Market will Resolve at number of Traders%(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-14	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.57	AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER CO INC (AEP) (CIK 0000004904)	edgar_8k 2026-05-14	CMQ_024 'Tokens per Watt' is the defining Key Performance Indicator (KPI) for the modern digital economy. Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	54%
0.57	Utility-Oriented Visual Evidence Selection for Multimodal Retrieval-Augmented Generation	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Machine Learning-Driven Multimodal Spectroscopic Liquid Biopsy for Early Multicancer Detection	arxiv 2026-05-13	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.57	meta-llama/llama-api-python v0.1.1	github_release 2025-05-23	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.57	Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Will "In the Grey" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	234_026 AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	What will trump say this month? (Kalshi)	manifold 2026-05-15	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.57	Globalstar, Inc. (GSAT) (CIK 0001366868)	edgar_8k 2026-05-15	S_COMPUTE_10GW_2028 Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028	compute_scale	40%
0.57	Sidus Space Inc. (SIDU) (CIK 0001879726)	edgar_8k 2026-05-15	SPC_001 The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 trillion by 2040 — fueled by higher launch cadences, new product introductions, and mature policy support characterizing the 2026 fiscal landscape. Morgan Stanley	Space	60%
0.57	AudioMosaic: Contrastive Masked Audio Representation Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.57	FDA NDA016730: DEXTROSE 5% IN PLASTIC CONTAINER (DEXTROSE) — B BRAUN	fda 2026-05-12	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA BLA761285: WEZLANA (USTEKINUMAB-AUUB) — AMGEN INC	fda 2026-05-12	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA BLA761304: VYVGART HYTRULO (EFGARTIGIMOD ALFA AND HYALURONIDASE-QVFC) — ARGENX BV	fda 2026-05-08	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	FDA NDA204819: ADEMPAS (RIOCIGUAT) — BAYER HLTHCARE	fda 2026-05-08	IND_012 NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a decade — Evo 2 achieves 90% accuracy in BRCA1 predictions; AI models will seamlessly transition generated biological designs into practical, synthesized clinical... Jensen Huang	Biotech/Longevity	68%
0.57	FDA BLA761381: OPDIVO QVANTIG (NIVOLUMAB) — BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB	fda 2026-05-12	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.57	Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO3) - LCS Regular Season(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-07	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Zhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopards(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2025-07-16	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	Will Dan complain about the cost of NYC unprompted?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-16	234_033 David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months David Holz	Robotics	23%
0.57	On what days will I be productive [rest of the month]	manifold 2026-05-16	237_029 AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience. Dave Blundin	AI	47%
0.57	Nürburgring 24 Hours Prop bets	manifold 2026-05-16	244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.57	FDA NDA021731: ELIGARD KIT (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — TOLMAR	fda 2026-05-06	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.57	facebookresearch/hydra v1.1.0.dev6	github_release 2021-04-28	231_002 Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	facebookresearch/hydra v1.0.0rc3	github_release 2020-08-17	248_037 State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	10%
0.57	San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.57	Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.57	Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5(market prob: 70%)	polymarket 2026-05-17	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	Will Justin Rose win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	39%
0.57	Cavaliers vs. Knicks(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Zhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopards(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	241_028 US losing electric vehicle industry to China was an error that will repeat in robotics unless addressed Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	48%
0.57	Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock	Robotics	20%
0.57	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2025-07-16	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	236_004 Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.57	Which countries will be designated state sponsors of terrorism by the US at the end of 2027?	manifold 2026-05-18	FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	30%
0.57	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-05-18	236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	35%
0.57	nVent Electric plc (NVT) (CIK 0001720635)	edgar_8k 2026-05-18	FUT_013 Exponential scaling of modular battery swapping infrastructure (Ample), mass production of clean-energy lithium-ion batteries (Northvolt), and low-GHG shipping + massive high-voltage ultra-long-distance transmission grids become economically viable pur... Ramez Naam	Auto/Transport	44%
0.57	AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES INC (AKAM) (CIK 0001086222)	edgar_8k 2026-05-18	CMQ_028 NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026). Jensen Huang	Semis	72%
0.57	Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-17	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Spread: Knicks (-7.5)(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.57	Spread: Knicks (-5.5)(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.57	Will the White House Press Secretary say "CDC" or "WHO" during the next White House Press Briefing?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.57	Will Hull City AFC vs. Southampton FC end in a draw?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A(market prob: 72%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.57	Will I get any money again from manifold this year?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-18	247_027 Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	DashAttention: Differentiable and Adaptive Sparse Hierarchical Attention	arxiv 2026-05-18	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.57	Dynamic Elliptical Graph Factor Models via Riemannian Optimization with Geodesic Temporal Regularization	arxiv 2026-05-18	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.57	SAS: Semantic-aware Sampling for Generative Dataset Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.57	FDA ANDA077663: SERTRALINE HYDROCHLORIDE (SERTRALINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — HERITAGE PHARMA AVET	fda 2026-05-07	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.57	LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-24	SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	Will David Njoku play for Miami Dolphins in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-02	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m?(market prob: 94%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.57	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-05	236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-05	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.57	U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-14	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Spread: Spurs (-9.5)(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.57	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	Resolves to the side with the most holders at market close(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-30	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of July? [Polymarket](market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-28	INF_064 Within 15-20 years, the vast majority of global ride-hailing trips will be fulfilled by autonomous robotic vehicles — with human labor entirely removed from driving/delivery and transitioned to "mission control" roles (fleet maintenance, rapid rechargi... Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	58%
0.57	Will the US strike Oman before June 16?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-05-28	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-27	236_017 Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.57	New Zealand Election 2nd Place (Polymarket)	manifold 2026-05-25	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Will Pauline Hanson run for the house (not senate) in the 2028 Australian election?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-05-25	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Confirmed Ebola case in North America by EOY 2026?(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-05-25	242_039 NASA will imminently find >90% probability evidence of microbial life on Mars Jared Isaacman (NASA administrator)	Space	46%
0.57	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-05-25	236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	35%
0.57	BROADWIND, INC. (BWEN) (CIK 0001120370)	edgar_8k 2026-05-29	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.57	CHEVRON CORP (CVX) (CIK 0000093410)	edgar_8k 2026-05-29	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	CHEVRON CORP (CVX) (CIK 0000093410)	edgar_8k 2026-05-29	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	A new completely parameter-free clustering algorithm for unsupervised classification of BATSE gamma-ray bursts	arxiv 2026-05-28	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.57	Joint Model and Data Sparsification via the Marginal Likelihood	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Parameter-Efficient Subspace Decoupling ViT for Mitigating Multi-Task Negative Transfer in Histological Scoring	arxiv 2026-05-28	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.57	Parameter-Efficient Subspace Decoupling ViT for Mitigating Multi-Task Negative Transfer in Histological Scoring	arxiv 2026-05-28	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.57	Joint Angle Estimation with Customized Wristband Based on Online Incremental Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.57	Primary Constraints of Newer General Relativity	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_004 By approximately 2027-2028, collaborative AI programs will essentially 'solve physics' — unifying general relativity and quantum mechanics into a new mathematical framework; the core mission of DeepMind is to 'first solve AI, then use AI to solve every... Demis Hassabis	AI	8%
0.57	Corner Quantization of 4D $BF$ Theory	arxiv 2026-05-28	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.57	Perturbative Nicolai-Map Diagrammatics: Application to Poincaré Supergravity	arxiv 2026-05-28	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Hypercomplex Yang-Mills Theory as a Bipartite Gauge Field Model	arxiv 2026-05-28	242_027 Hyperloop will be used largely for commercial/cargo loads, not humans Salim Ismail	Auto/Transport	40%
0.57	FDA BLA761468: HEPCLUDEX (BULEVIRTIDE-GMOD) — GILEAD SCIENCES INC	fda 2026-05-22	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	FDA BLA103792: HERCEPTIN (TRASTUZUMAB) — GENENTECH	fda 2026-05-18	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	Will Union Bordeaux Begles win?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 67m and 73m?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 2(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Who will be the next Republican candidate for 2028?	manifold 2026-05-31	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.57	New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	CYB_028 The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... Mark Cuban	Markets/Stocks	48%
0.57	Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-06-01	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.57	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-06-01	236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	35%
0.57	Will I receive a score on the TSTST high enough to qualify for the TST(market prob: 54%)	manifold 2026-06-01	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	In the which years will the CDC report more measles cases in the US than 2026?	manifold 2026-06-01	FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan	Macro/Economy	72%
0.57	In the which years will the CDC report more measles cases in the US than 2026?	manifold 2026-06-01	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	FDA ANDA217497: TRETINOIN (TRETINOIN) — AMNEAL	fda 2026-05-14	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.57	FDA ANDA215411: SITAGLIPTIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (SITAGLIPTIN, METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE) — INVENTIA HEALTHCARE LIMITED	fda 2026-05-07	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.57	FDA ANDA220673: CLOMIPHENE CITRATE (CLOMIPHENE CITRATE) — ASCENT PHARMS INC	fda 2026-05-15	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA ANDA211255: LINACLOTIDE (LINACLOTIDE) — ACTAVIS LABS FL INC	fda 2026-05-19	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.57	New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	What will trump say this month? (Kalshi)	manifold 2026-06-02	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.57	Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) (CIK 0001596532)	edgar_8k 2026-06-02	246_036 Terafab will deliver 1 terawatt/year AI compute, 50x current global output of 20 gigawatt. Peter Diamandis	AI	46%
0.57	Self-Conditioned Positional HNSW for Overlap-Aware Retrieval in Chunked-Document RAG Systems: Method and Industrial Evidence-Quality Audit	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.57	Realistic noise synthesis reduces bias and improves tissue microstructure estimation with supervised machine learning	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.57	Segment-driven Structural Induction and Semantic Alignment for Heterogeneous Tabular Representation	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.57	Leaf Spectral Reflectance Prediction Using Multi-Head Attention Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-31	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.57	DSL-LLaDA: Scaling Continuous Denoising to 8B Masked Diffusion LMs	arxiv 2026-05-31	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.57	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.2.5	github_release 2023-07-29	IND_005 Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~... Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	33%
0.57	facebookresearch/facestar male_speaker_trainset	github_release 2022-03-25	237_001 Increased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become more and more prevalent. Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.57	Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	T20 Blast: Surrey vs Middlesex(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	T20 Blast: Surrey vs Middlesex(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	ChargePoint Holdings, Inc. (CHPT) (CIK 0001777393)	edgar_8k 2026-06-03	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	RICHTECH ROBOTICS INC. (RR) (CIK 0001963685)	edgar_8k 2026-06-03	COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	33%
0.57	FDA NDA217379: CAVHANZA (NILOTINIB) — FLEX PHARMA	fda 2026-05-29	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challengers League Playoffs(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Changers North America Playoffs(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	231_048 Thousands of experiments from permissionless disruptive innovation will completely change the game. Salim Ismail	AI	46%
0.57	Free Lottery (Tully–Fisher Relation)(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-04	242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.57	Free Lottery (Tully–Fisher Relation)(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-04	SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Mathematics	15%
0.57	Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Map Handicap: BIG (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross	Consumer	42%
0.57	LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.57	LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI(market prob: 77%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Valorant: SwimTrek Blue vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Changers North America Playoffs(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	Valorant: SwimTrek Blue vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Changers North America Playoffs(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 754 : Suggest the best expression(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-05	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.57	Harnessing Structural Context for Entity Alignment Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.57	LLM Explainability with Counterfactual Chains and Causal Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-04	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.57	Q-GNN: Query-Conditioned Graph Neural Networks with Type Awareness for Knowledge Graph Completion	arxiv 2026-06-04	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.57	"Chi nas dal soch el sent de legn" -- Auditing Text Corpora for Lombard	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.57	CHALIS: A Challenge Dataset for Language Identification in Difficult Scenarios	arxiv 2026-06-04	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	Domain-Aware Mispronunciation Detection and Diagnosis Using Language-Specific Statistical Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.57	ColBERTSaR: Sparsified ColBERT Index via Product Quantization	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.57	MASF: A Multi-Model Adaptive Selection Framework for Abstractive Text summarization	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.57	A French Corpus Annotated for Multiword Expressions with Adverbial Function	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	92%
0.57	FDA ANDA218405: SITAGLIPTIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (SITAGLIPTIN, METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE) — MANKIND PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-05-21	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Will Dion Beljo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Spread: New York Liberty (-3.5)(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.57	Free Lottery (direct distance measurement)(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-06-06	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.57	Resolves to the side with the most holders at market close(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-06-06	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.57	LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	233_011 Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption. Joe Liemandt	Education	37%
0.57	Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage(market prob: 65%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Supervision versus Demonstration-Based In-Context Learning for Multiword Expression Classification	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.57	A robust PPG foundation model using multimodal physiological supervision	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.57	The Lipreading Gap: Do VSR Models Perceive Visual Speech Like Human Lipreaders?	arxiv 2026-06-05	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.57	Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.57	Will Tyreek Hill play for the Minnesota Vikings next?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-16	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	Spread: Knicks (-3.5)(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.57	Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-21	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	Will Maxx Crosby play for Tampa Bay Buccaneers next?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Spread: Knicks (-9.5)(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.57	What will be announced in tomorrow's Nintendo Direct? [Short Fuse] [Add Answers!]	manifold 2026-06-08	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.57	🇸🇦KSA vs 🇺🇾URY [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇧🇪BEL vs 🇪🇬EGY [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇪🇸ESP vs 🇨🇻CPV [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇸🇪SWE vs 🇹🇳TUN [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇨🇮CIV vs 🇪🇨ECU [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇳🇱NED vs 🇯🇵JPN [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇩🇪GER vs 🇨🇼CUW [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇦🇺AUS vs 🇹🇷TUR [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇭🇹HAI vs 🇬🇧SCO [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇧🇷BRA vs 🇲🇦MAR [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇶🇦QAT vs 🇨🇭SUI [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇺🇸USA vs 🇵🇾PAR [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇨🇦CAN vs 🇧🇦BIH [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇲🇽MEX vs 🇿🇦RSA [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	Free Lottery (expansion of universe)(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-08	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) (CIK 0001736297)	edgar_8k 2026-06-08	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.57	FDA ANDA220724: ANDA220724 ((unspecified)) — ZYDUS PHARMACEUTICALS (USA) INC.	fda 2026-05-28	CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis	AI	60%
0.57	FDA ANDA206228: ARSENIC TRIOXIDE (ARSENIC TRIOXIDE) — ZYDUS PHARMS	fda 2026-06-02	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	Will LeBron James play for the Detroit Pistons in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	When will Claude Fable return to Pro	manifold 2026-06-09	CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei	AI	28%
0.57	CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-06-09	INF_060 Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive paradigm shift away from lithium as the sole foundational element of global energy storage. Elon Musk	Energy	42%
0.57	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-06-09	236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	35%
0.57	🇪🇬EGY vs 🇮🇷IRN [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇳🇿NZL vs 🇧🇪BEL [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇨🇻CPV vs 🇸🇦KSA [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇺🇾URY vs 🇪🇸ESP [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇸🇳SEN vs 🇮🇶IRQ [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇳🇴NOR vs 🇫🇷FRA [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇵🇾PAR vs 🇦🇺AUS [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇹🇷TUR vs 🇺🇸USA [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇯🇵JPN vs 🇸🇪SWE [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇹🇳TUN vs 🇳🇱NED [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇨🇼CUW vs 🇨🇮CIV [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇪🇨ECU vs 🇩🇪GER [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇿🇦RSA vs 🇰🇷KOR [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇨🇿CZE vs 🇲🇽MEX [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇬🇧SCO vs 🇧🇷BRA [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇲🇦MAR vs 🇭🇹HAI [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇧🇦BIH vs 🇶🇦QAT [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇨🇭SUI vs 🇨🇦CAN [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇨🇴COL vs 🇨🇩COD [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇵🇦PAN vs 🇭🇷CRO [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇬🇧ENG vs 🇬🇭GHA [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇵🇹POR vs 🇺🇿UZB [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇯🇴JOR vs 🇩🇿ALG [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇳🇴NOR vs 🇸🇳SEN [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇫🇷FRA vs 🇮🇶IRQ [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇦🇷ARG vs 🇦🇹AUT [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%