Validations Queue
64,690 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 36 of 38, 200 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
Pending (total)
64,690
Reviewed
13
Filtered
7,461
page 36 / 38
Showing on page
200
Filters
URL params control source + min-similarity threshold
Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold
Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
Source0 selected · 0 visible
Bulk action
| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.56 | Will Embroidery win the G1 Victoria Mile at Tokyo?(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-16 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-14 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 15% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-19 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-30 | COD_ROB_001 Figure sustains a one-robot-per-hour Figure 03 production run-rate for at least 30 consecutive days by Q4 2026 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 24% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Florida PALM go live as scheduled on January 11, 2027?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 234_026 AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-26 | FUT_014 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I get a girlfriend before I make USNCO Camp in 2027?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | 229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | |
| 0.56 | Will I stay in Masters this season?(market prob: 88%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.56 | Will I stay in masters this season?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-31 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | How cheap will fully farm-raised eel get? / 完全養殖ウナギ、いくらまで安くなる？(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 237_030 Lobsters/AI agents will write to AWG with consensus on appropriate ethical parameters for spawning new lobsters, and he will accept consensus. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.56 | Will the ECB raise interest rates at its June 11, 2026 meeting?(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_004 Future Vision X-Prize will produce at least one (possibly two) feature films depicting the future Peter Diamandis | Media/Ads | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-09 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I be promoted to platinum at the end of this season?(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Will Bernie Sanders officially run for president in 2028?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-10 | COD_SPC_001 Artemis III flies as an Earth-orbit HLS/EVA suit test mission in 2027, not a lunar landing Codex Research Pack | Space | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | Will there be 4 hat tricks in the 2026 World Cup?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.56 | will judge judy reach 100 years old?(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Do you like 58% odds?(market prob: 59%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will the 2026 NBA Finals go to a Game 7?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | Will someone manigram me 500 mana?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 241_008 AI research agents will be limited only by electricity, with potentially millions possible Eric Schmidt | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-29 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Cyprus join the Schengen Area by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 246_017 Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. Peter Diamandis | Space | 38% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 247_023 AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently Dave Blundin | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-26 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-23 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | Penalty shootout in champions league semi final? 2025/2026 season(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-28 | INF_019 A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for evaporative cooling — roughly equivalent to municipal supply for a town of 50,000 people. Elon Musk | Energy | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-02 | S_HUMANOID_MASS_2033 Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033 | humanoid_deployment | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 240_035 Meta secured 6.6 GW of clean nuclear power for 2035 Meta | Energy | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the 2026 Kentucky Derby winner, Golden Tempo win another race?(market prob: 61%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.56 | Do you like 96% odds?(market prob: 96%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 242_028 AI could automate 25% of US work hours Goldman Sachs | Labor/Jobs | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Rudy Giuliani dead by end of May 2026?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 235_023 Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis. Eric Schmidt | Energy | 48% | |
| 0.56 | Rudy Giuliani dead by end of May 2026?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 247_023 AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently Dave Blundin | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-05 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | Will my friend go on a date by the end of May?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Manifold beat me at FTW?(market prob: 87%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-08 | INF_019 A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for evaporative cooling — roughly equivalent to municipal supply for a town of 50,000 people. Elon Musk | Energy | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 238_016 Figure CEO Brett Adcock will appear at Abundance Summit next year (2027) with a Figure robot for Peter Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 247_023 AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently Dave Blundin | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-12 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-12 | FUT_016 Next 5 years (2026-2030) require individuals + organizations to adopt 'FLUX' superpowers — ability to transform constant uncertainty into strategic advantage. Traditional linear career paths dissolve entirely by 2030, replaced by fluid portfolio-based ... April Rinne | Labor/Jobs | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-13 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | CMQ_018 By 2027-2028, the strategic value of superintelligence + impossible trillion-dollar infrastructure cost will trigger government consolidation of AGI development — 'The Project'. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Geopolitics | 35% | |
| 0.56 | test-b(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 229_047 Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planned. Brett Adcock | AI | 77% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 236_047 New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-14 | SEM_035 World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). Eric Schmidt | AI/Cognition | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-15 | SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail | Labor/Jobs | 37% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the 2026 NBA Finals go to a Game 7?(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Will I get COVID ten times before getting hantavirus?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 242_047 Frontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 years Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 39% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 229_023 First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 38% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-16 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | INF_019 A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for evaporative cooling — roughly equivalent to municipal supply for a town of 50,000 people. Elon Musk | Energy | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-19 | IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 22% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-19 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-30 | AUT_024 H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int... Morgan Stanley | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I get an A on English this year(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-28 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the US strike Oman before June 16?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-25 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-25 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | European Central Bank raises rates at June meeting?(market prob: 76%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-24 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 71% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 247_023 AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently Dave Blundin | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 229_023 First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 38% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis | AI | 71% | ||
| 0.56 | Clarity Act will pass in September(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Tetra's eclipse hotel booking stop existing within the week?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Will Tetra's eclipse hotel booking stop existing within the week?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 243_045 Joby Abu Dhabi partnership will save hours of travel time Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will any 2026 World Cup team advance through group stage with 0 wins?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | Will India Qualify for World Test Championship 2026 ?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Will Switzerland win Group B of the 2026 World Cup?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 247_023 AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently Dave Blundin | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-11 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the 2026 NBA Finals go to a Game 7?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Will Fable be reenabled for Americans before June 20?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 246_050 Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Will Caroline Ellison Attend Manifest 2026?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.56 | Will a particular friend of mine crack anyone while at math camp?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 232_056 Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 246_039 Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Spirit Airlines complete shutdown of operations by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | SPC_020 Archer Aviation's flagship Midnight eVTOL will launch commercial passenger flights by late 2026 — bolstered by FAA federal pilot programs; integrates NVIDIA IGX Thor onboard compute for predictive awareness, pilot safety, and autonomy-ready flight syst... Brett Adcock | Auto/Transport | 26% | |
| 0.56 | Will Jannik Sinner play in Rome M1000 2026(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 87% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 241_063 America needs to win AI race with smart immigration policy Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 239_026 Future will be very entertaining Elon Musk | Other | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 240_037 Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 24% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.56 | The Boys Finale IMDB score ≤ 7.0 at end of May?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 234_026 AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-09 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I present my APUSH project before the end of the school year?(market prob: 73%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 233_003 Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring. MacKenzie Price | Education | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Will I go to gym at least 3x a week for the rest of the May?(market prob: 48%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 248_004 Launching 40,000 V3 Starlinks requires only 3 Starship launches per week over 3 years. Peter Diamandis | Space | 58% | |
| 0.56 | Will national dry van spot rate be $2.00–$2.25/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. Dario Amodei | AI | 77% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 242_015 Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license Salim Ismail | Auto/Transport | 71% | ||
| 0.56 | Xi JinPing visits USA before Sep 30?(market prob: 82%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 237_028 Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podcast this year. Peter Diamandis | Media/Ads | 78% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 234_040 Elon predicts FSD and Starlink may reverse urbanization in America Elon Musk | Real Estate | 38% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 230_034 Abundance will be achieved by 2035. Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | New fish species (market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | 245_008 More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 45% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-30 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-30 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. Ray Kurzweil | Biotech/Longevity | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-27 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 248_015 Princeton CS brains will be a complete commodity two years from today post-ASI. Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 53% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-25 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Philipp K. find a real girlfriend in the next 12 months?(market prob: 83%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | 233_005 Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year. Dave Blundin | AI | 51% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 230_034 Abundance will be achieved by 2035. Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | European Central Bank raises rates at June meeting?(market prob: 76%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 230_044 Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. Peter Diamandis | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 246_039 Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Daniel Negreanu win a World Series of Poker Bracelet in 2026(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-01 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 230_034 Abundance will be achieved by 2035. Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang | Markets/Stocks | 78% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 240_010 NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 237_028 Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podcast this year. Peter Diamandis | Media/Ads | 78% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-03 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | ||
| 0.56 | Will blinded study participants be able to detect indica vs sativa?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 245_031 99% of synthetic biology focus will remain on human healthcare; similar tech applies more broadly Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 41% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-04 | IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 22% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Ukraine control Slavyansk at the end of October 2027?(market prob: 59%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (Faber–Jackson relation)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 229_038 Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent capital unlock). Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 23% | |
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (Faber–Jackson relation)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-06 | 238_012 OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes Kevin Weil | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | ......MART.......(market prob: 97%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang | Consumer | 51% | |
| 0.56 | Will I exercise every single day until July?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the New York Jets win the 2026 Super Bowl?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-29 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Israel attack Iraq in 2030?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | CMQ_003 By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintelligence. Sam Altman | AI | 23% | |
| 0.55 | Will I ban mobile devices from my bedroom next week?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | 237_008 App stores will go away; users won't download apps but instead generate software on demand from local models. Alex Finn | Consumer | 41% | |
| 0.55 | Will the "Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13" pass(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 237_006 Over the next year, consumers will realize local models are the way to go on privacy, speed, and limits. Alex Finn | AI | 41% | |
| 0.55 | USA vs Iran in World Cup 2026?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-30 | ROB_002 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primary human bottleneck in digital creation, making the automation of the AI researcher by 2027 a mechanical certainty. Kevin Weil | Labor/Jobs | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 244_026 Uber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035 Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Jannik Sinner play in Rome M1000 2026(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-03 | CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | Will the 2026 Kentucky Derby winner, Golden Tempo win another race?(market prob: 61%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 234_051 Claude-facilitated dating will replace traditional matchmaking Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 38% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-04 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-03 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 247_055 Acquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of millions will become common Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.55 | Will I take a leave of absence?(market prob: 62%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.55 | Will I ban mobile devices from my bedroom next week?(market prob: 61%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 237_008 App stores will go away; users won't download apps but instead generate software on demand from local models. Alex Finn | Consumer | 41% | |
| 0.55 | SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?(market prob: 65%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | AUT_007 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll... Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 13% | |
| 0.55 | Free Lottery (GRB 170817A)(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 246_031 Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.55 | Free Lottery (GRB 170817A)(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 248_040 Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 53% | ||
| 0.55 | Will the stock market crash if the Republicans win the midterms?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 229_032 Figure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that remembers, over the next year or two. Brett Adcock | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-08 | AUT_024 H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int... Morgan Stanley | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Manifold beat me at FTW?(market prob: 87%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 237_026 The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity. Peter Diamandis | AI | 31% |