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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-08 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 233_007 In 2026, Alpha will launch new schools beyond the flagship model based on the Timeback platform. Joe Liemandt | Education | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | Will I be the pirate king(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | 239_026 Future will be very entertaining Elon Musk | Other | 55% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-11 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 230_037 Handmade/human art will be astronomically more valuable in the future. Dave Blundin | Consumer | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | CMQ_022 AGI will arrive within a decade (by 2030) — driven primarily by massive raw compute deployment and neural-network scaling. Elon Musk | AI | 34% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I do something interesting this week according to me(market prob: 48%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 244_024 Hopes society will adjust as work is augmented and new work shows up Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Will the 2026 Kentucky Derby have a close finish?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-26 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 15% | ||
| 0.56 | LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | SPC_023 Altman's specific chronological roadmap: 2030 'wildly abundant' intelligence + energy (unlocked via AI + Helion fusion 2028) → 2034 humanity mathematically cracks high-energy physics → 2035 space colonization begins in earnest → 2036 commercial brain-c... Sam Altman | AI | 18% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 238_020 Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 61% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-23 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 239_018 Universal High Income will be implemented Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I place last in Masters Season 37?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 229_002 Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 56% | ||
| 0.56 | Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?(market prob: 81%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Will I do something interesting this week according to me(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 244_024 Hopes society will adjust as work is augmented and new work shows up Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Will this market appear on a mug?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I solve a TSTST problem with MMP?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | |
| 0.56 | Will abhishaike mahajan ever win the nobel prize?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 234_007 Kevin Weil aims for next 100 Nobel Prizes to be issued in partnership with AI Kevin Weil | AI | 38% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 247_027 Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | test-a(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 242_008 Dyson sphere will come before any fusion reactor is licensed Dave Blundin | Energy | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-11 | SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail | Labor/Jobs | 37% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-12 | COD_BIO_005 Colossal adds at least one more de-extinction species to active embryo-transfer pipeline by end 2028 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-12 | SEM_016 Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chain resilience. David Friedberg | Semis/Geopolitics | 24% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | Will there be a red card in the 2026 UEFA Champions League final?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Will Slay the Spire 2 release Act 4 before a new alternate act?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.56 | Will Slay the Spire 2 release Act 4 before a new alternate act?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-16 | CMQ_018 By 2027-2028, the strategic value of superintelligence + impossible trillion-dollar infrastructure cost will trigger government consolidation of AGI development — 'The Project'. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Geopolitics | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 229_019 Humanoids will dominate the plurality of all robots; other form factors will be niche. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 30% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the 2026 Fifa World Cup winner, draw or lose in the group stage?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-30 | CMQ_053 Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-labor shortages in automotive manufacturing. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Florida PALM go live as scheduled on January 11, 2027?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 229_002 Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 56% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-28 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-27 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 231_054 Uncertain whether people will have any purpose at all a year from today. Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | Rcb vs gt who is win(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-31 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-31 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 248_050 Opus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | ||
| 0.56 | will we (husband + me) move back to our hometown within 3 years?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 78% | |
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (Faber–Jackson relation)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-06 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 32% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Tetra's eclipse hotel booking stop existing within the week?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang | Markets/Stocks | 78% | |
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (expansion of universe)(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_058 Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 years Salim Ismail | Macro/Economy | 33% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-09 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Cristiano Ronaldo play at the 2030 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-11 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 246_002 SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-13 | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (Monster black hole)(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 238_058 Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 years Salim Ismail | Macro/Economy | 33% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Israel attack Iraq in 2030?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | CMQ_012 AGI by 2027; superintelligence by 2030 — full automation of AI researchers in 2027 triggers post-AGI intelligence explosion. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 41% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-26 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky actually debate @47fucb4r8c69323?(market prob: 93%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 235_023 Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis. Eric Schmidt | Energy | 48% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-24 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 248_032 First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be non-destructive. Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I stay in masters this season?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I place last in Masters Season 37?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 236_040 CEO will be last to go in AI wave of automation Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 42% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 236_040 CEO will be last to go in AI wave of automation Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-07 | FUT_002 Mean expert estimate for AGI collapsed from 50-year horizon to ~5 years over a 4-year window leading to mid-2020s — placing expected AGI arrival firmly in 2029-2031 window per Metaculus + 80000 Hours aggregate tracking; quantitative forecasters now ali... Superforecaster Community | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | Will https://vivarium.sh/ still exist by EOY2028(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt | AI | 48% | |
| 0.56 | Will my dahlia tuber sprout?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.56 | test-b(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Will Android succeed in making it harder to side-load apps(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 237_007 Every other company will eventually try to provide OS-integrated local AI like what Apple could offer. Alex Finn | AI | 42% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-15 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 240_051 After first state passes retraining law, all other states will race to fire people first Alex Wissner-Gross | Labor/Jobs | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-30 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Israel attack Iraq in 2037?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Will The Democrats Win Every Presidential Election from 2028 to 2040?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk | AI | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | Will UFC Freedom 250 End Early due to a Disruption/Safety Concern?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event | — | 15% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | Will my resin casted pepperoni mold within one year from today?(market prob: 81%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | CMQ_011 AGI is plausible within 10 years, BUT alignment and safety must be solved BEFORE reaching AGI — not concurrently, and not after. Demis Hassabis | AI | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Will Rick Wang qualify for USNCO nationals 2027?(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will I stay in Masters this season?(market prob: 88%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Will I stay in masters this season?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-01 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (Blazar)(market prob: 78%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 242_002 Long-term petawatt compute will come only from lunar mass drivers Peter Diamandis | Space | 46% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 247_046 AI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025 Peter Diamandis | AI | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Labor lead One Nation in the polls at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.56 | Will Labor lead One Nation in the polls at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | IND_021 February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... Jack Dorsey | Labor/Jobs | 74% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Hunter Biden run for US President during his lifetime?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (direct distance measurement)(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-10 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | Is Anime For Kids?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | 233_012 AI will give kids superpowers and transform their childhood. Joe Liemandt | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-12 | COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 31% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the Jews admit that they control the weather before 2030?(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei | AI | 41% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 236_019 Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longer Andrew Yang | Robotics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I exercise every single day next week?(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | 242_005 Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day) Peter Diamandis | Space | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day next week?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | 243_045 Joby Abu Dhabi partnership will save hours of travel time Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will pine sell out to CS?(market prob: 77%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 238_036 Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp, operating on behalf of advertisers Emad Mostaque | Media/Ads | 35% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-25 | INF_032 Residential electricity costs are a structural byproduct of DC buildout: Washington state household electricity costs rose 10.3% from 2024 to 2025 directly tied to infrastructure strain, with utility-proposed rate increases projecting residential price... Seattle Met / Washington State regulators | Macro/Economy | 54% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I receive my manifold markets t-shirt?(market prob: 94%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | Red vs. Blue button (Free Mana, resolves N/A)(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 238_024 AI token speed will jump from ~50 tokens/sec to ~1,000 tokens/sec (Cerebras) Emad Mostaque | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 246_033 Insecurity of human-authored code will be recognized before insecurity of human drivers is legally. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I stay in Masters League this season?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.56 | Will Jannik Sinner win Roland Garros 2026?(market prob: 62%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day next week?(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 243_045 Joby Abu Dhabi partnership will save hours of travel time Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 45% | |
| 0.56 | F1: 2026 Canadian Grand Prix (Montreal) Mercedes Winner?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-08 | SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock | Robotics | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | test-a(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk | AI | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | Will https://vivarium.sh/ still exist by EOY2028(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 248_006 The Luna AI-managed store will be one of the best-managed stores in the world within a year. Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 236_047 New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-12 | IND_017 Arrival of the 'AI CEO Billionaire' in 2026 — AI will automate knowledge work so effectively that a synthetic entity could run a billion-dollar enterprise autonomously. Dawn of 'Agentic Era' begins 2027, where autonomous AI agents seamlessly integrate ... Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 11% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-13 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | At the end of 2036, will the UK have routinely unarmed police officers?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 241_063 America needs to win AI race with smart immigration policy Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Dan complain about the cost of NYC unprompted?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 70% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Championship?(market prob: 43%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 243_042 Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forward Dara Khosrowshahi | Consumer | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the 2026 NBA Finals reach a Game 6?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | |
| 0.56 | Will Vladimir Putin's approval rating decrease in June 2026?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.56 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of July? [Polymarket](market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Will my resin casted pepperoni mold within one year from today?(market prob: 81%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 62% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-25 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 240_010 NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 243_042 Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forward Dara Khosrowshahi | Consumer | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I get a girlfriend before I make USNCO Camp in 2027?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 243_042 Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forward Dara Khosrowshahi | Consumer | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (Blazar)(market prob: 78%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba | AI/Hardware | 71% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 232_019 AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. Ben Horowitz | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I be below 265 pounds by January 11, 2027? (Today: 318.8 pounds)(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. Ray Kurzweil | Biotech/Longevity | 39% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-04 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Nithya Raman Beat Karen Bass? (n/a if doesn’t advance)(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-05 | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | 20% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I get accepted to the August Iliad Intensive?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 241_048 AI/LLM will be the expression platform for student art, music, writing Eric Schmidt | Education | 51% | |
| 0.56 | Will July 2026 in Boston be one of the 5 warmest July's ever?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-06 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% |