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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.60	Fast and Lightweight Novel View Synthesis with Differentiable Multiplane Image	arxiv 2026-06-01	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Ranking vs. Assignment: The Metric Mismatch in Multi-View Object Association	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Suppressing Forgery-Specific Shortcuts for Generalizable Deepfake Detection	arxiv 2026-06-01	232_033 Cryptographically strong authentication is the only security technique that will work going forward; biometrics/replay-vulnerable methods won't. Ben Horowitz	AI	48%
0.60	Suppressing Forgery-Specific Shortcuts for Generalizable Deepfake Detection	arxiv 2026-06-01	237_001 Increased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become more and more prevalent. Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.60	MOSS-Audio Technical Report	arxiv 2026-06-01	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Breaking the Information Silo: Semantic Personas for Cross-Domain Recommendation	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.60	Measurement Geometry and Design for Trustworthy Generative Inverse Problems	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.60	Massive Spikes in LLMs are Bias Vectors: Mechanistic Uncovering and Spike-Free Quantization	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.60	A combination of noise and bilateral filters achieve supralinear and scalable adversarial robustness in CNNs	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Hybrid Neural Ordinary Differential Equations for Data-Efficient Polymerization Modeling with Incomplete Kinetics	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.60	Error Bounds for a Diffusion Model-Based Drift Estimator	arxiv 2026-06-01	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Error Bounds for a Diffusion Model-Based Drift Estimator	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.60	Planar Symmetric Pattern Generation	arxiv 2026-06-01	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.60	Randomized Least Squares Value Iteration itself is Joint Differentially Private	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Sensitivity as a Double-Edged Sword: A Trade-off Between Discriminability and Adversarial Robustness	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	MomentKV: Closing the Directional Gap in KV Cache Eviction for Long-Context Inference	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	Perception First: A Frontier Native-Video Model with Self-Consistency for Implicit Video Question Answering	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	When Rating Scales Fall Short: LLM-Assisted Discovery of ADHD Signals in Turkish Teacher Narratives	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.60	When Rating Scales Fall Short: LLM-Assisted Discovery of ADHD Signals in Turkish Teacher Narratives	arxiv 2026-06-01	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.60	CARTE: A Benchmark for Mapping Language Model Knowledge Across France	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.60	What to Format and How: A Benchmark and Workflow Approach for Document Formatting	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.60	TalkTag: Fine-Grained Morphosyntactic Error Annotation for Transcribed Speech	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	DrugClaw and DrugAudit: A Primary-Source-Grounded Agent and Authority-Aware Benchmark for Drug-Information Question Answering	arxiv 2026-05-31	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.60	TukaBench: A Culturally Grounded Jailbreak Benchmark for African Languages	arxiv 2026-05-31	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Med-HEAL: Analyzing and Mitigating Hallucinations in Medical LLMs with Hallucination-Aware In-Context Learning	arxiv 2026-05-31	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.60	Med-HEAL: Analyzing and Mitigating Hallucinations in Medical LLMs with Hallucination-Aware In-Context Learning	arxiv 2026-05-31	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.60	IndoBias: A Dual Track Culturally Grounded Benchmark for LLMs Bias Evaluation in Indonesian Languages	arxiv 2026-05-31	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.60	Beyond Sinusoids: A Morlet Wavelet Framework for Transformer Positional Encoding	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.60	Beyond Sinusoids: A Morlet Wavelet Framework for Transformer Positional Encoding	arxiv 2026-05-31	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.1.5	github_release 2020-05-28	AI_017 NVIDIA will make Agentic AI the primary demand vector via two specialized products: the 'NemoClaw' developer toolkit for building/orchestrating autonomous agents, and the 'Vera CPU rack' hardware platform explicitly designed to host, deploy, and execut... Jensen Huang	Semis	75%
0.60	Will CD Real Tomayapo vs. Club ABB end in a draw?(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	C3.ai, Inc. (AI) (CIK 0001577526)	edgar_8k 2026-06-03	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.60	Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-04?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-01-13	238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	45%
0.60	Will Messi have more than or equal to G/A than Ronaldo in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 72%)	manifold 2026-06-04	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.60	ARGAN INC (AGX) (CIK 0000100591)	edgar_8k 2026-06-04	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.60	Will Nicaragua win on 2026-06-05?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.60	Map Handicap: BIG (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.60	Valorant: SwimTrek Blue vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Changers North America Playoffs(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.60	Pretraining Recurrent Networks without Recurrence	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.60	TRACE: A Temporal Conditional Estimation for Multimodal Time Series Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Unsupervised Pattern Analysis in Japanese Veterinary Toxicology: A Regulatory-Compliant Framework for Cross-Species Risk Assessment	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.60	Emotion-Aware Image Generation from Korean Diary Text via LLM-based Prompt Translation and LoRA Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Next-Generation Parallel Decoder for LPDR: Architectural Optimization and Class-Balanced GAN-Augmentation	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_016 NVIDIA Rubin platform in full production by 2026 — slashes computational cost of generating AI tokens to 1/10 of previous architectures. Autonomous reasoning model 'Alpamayo' shifts self-driving technology from fragile rule-based coding to verifiable l... Jensen Huang	AI	75%
0.60	FIDES: Faithful Inference via Deep Evidence Signals for Retrieval-Memory Conflict in RAG	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	TailLoR: Protecting Principal Components in Parameter-Efficient Continual Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	Function-Space Priors for Bayesian Neural ODEs with Application to Vessel Trajectory Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-04	SPC_015 AI will continuously analyze orbital trajectories of active satellites and space debris to predict collisions with superhuman accuracy — upon identifying collision risks, AI systems will autonomously command satellite Hall-effect thrusters to adjust or... Andrej Karpathy	Space	72%
0.60	Performance Evaluation of GraphCast for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting over Brazil	arxiv 2026-06-04	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.60	Wall Shear Stress Reconstruction from Concentration: Differentiable Physics and Physics-Informed Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Cross-scale spatially-aware generative modeling of transcriptomic programs underlying neurodegenerative brain organization	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Diff2SP: Diffusion Models for Correlated Scenario Generation in Stochastic Programming	arxiv 2026-06-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Monte Carlo Steklov Operators for Large-Scale Geometry Processing in the Wild	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	English-to-Prakrit Machine Translation via Multilingual Transfer Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.60	Caliper: Probing Lexical Anchors versus Causal Structure in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	T-FunS3D: Task-Driven Hierarchical Open-Vocabulary 3D Functionality Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	D$^3$-MoE:Dual Disentangled Diffusion Mixture-of-Experts for Style-Controllable End-to-End Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-03	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.60	Multi-entropy in random tensor networks	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	FDA NDA209805: STEGLUJAN (ERTUGLIFLOZIN) — MSD SUB MERCK	fda 2026-06-03	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	FDA NDA208400: XATMEP (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — AZURITY	fda 2026-05-27	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.60	Eos Energy Enterprises, Inc. (EOSE) (CIK 0001805077)	edgar_8k 2026-06-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60	Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026?(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.60	Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07?(market prob: 84%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	41%
0.60	Will I score higher than 1500 on the June 6th SAT?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-06-06	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.60	facebookresearch/detectron2 v0.1.2	github_release 2020-05-04	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.60	SV-Detect: AI-generated Text Detection with Steering Vectors	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Never Seen Before: Benchmarking Genuine Zero-Shot Composed Image Retrieval with Consistent Video-Sourced Datasets	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	The Proxy Benders Decomposition	arxiv 2026-06-05	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.60	Constructing VAE Latent Spaces with Prescribed Topology	arxiv 2026-06-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	The Lipreading Gap: Do VSR Models Perceive Visual Speech Like Human Lipreaders?	arxiv 2026-06-05	232_011 Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.60	Learning Perspectivist Social Meaning via Demographic-Conditioned Fusion Embeddings	arxiv 2026-06-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Vanishing of all redshift modes in Schwarzschild ringdown	arxiv 2026-06-05	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.60	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-01-29	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.60	Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in June 2026?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-06-08	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.60	can you just balenciaga it? Before 2027(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-08	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.60	SEMTECH CORP (SMTC) (CIK 0000088941)	edgar_8k 2026-06-08	SEM_020 Nvidia preemptively reserved 800,000-850,000 TSMC wafers for 2026 — 8x SMIC's entire advanced-process capacity. Nvidia (All-In Podcast analysis)	Semis	74%
0.60	FDA NDA209637: OZEMPIC (SEMAGLUTIDE) — NOVO	fda 2026-06-01	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.60	Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	When will Claude Fable return to Pro	manifold 2026-06-09	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-06-09	INF_037 An all-out AI arms race between the US and China is inevitable — reaching superintelligence first provides a decisive unassailable economic and military advantage, analogous to early nuclear primacy. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Geopolitics	58%
0.60	Will a Claude Fable model be released Tuesday June 9th?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-06-09	238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick	Robotics	42%
0.60	CARE: A Conformal Safety Layer for Medical Summarization	arxiv 2026-06-08	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.60	CARE: A Conformal Safety Layer for Medical Summarization	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	ZIPP:Zero-shot Image Personalization from Personas	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Adaptive directional gradients for parameterised quantum circuits	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.60	In-Context Learning for Latent Space Bayesian Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-08	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	Counterfactual Reasoning for Fine-Grained Evidence Disentanglement in VideoQA	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.60	A spectral audit framework reveals task-dependent aperiodic reliance across EEG and ECG deep learning	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.60	TruthSplit: Operationalizing Conditional Validity in Arguments Through Multi-Perspective Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.60	ChinaHeritaQA: A Culturally-Grounded Visual Question Answering Dataset for World Heritage Sites in China	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.60	AsyncLane: Decoupling Refinement from Advancement in Diffusion Language Model Decoding	arxiv 2026-06-07	ROB_001 If hundreds of millions of AGI instances are deployed simultaneously by 2027 to automate the algorithms governing their own architectures, the industry will compress a decade of human-led algorithmic progress into less than a year — culminating in 'run... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	29%
0.60	Geometry-Aware Fisheye-LiDAR Fusion for Robust 3D Object Detection in Low-Overlap Setups	arxiv 2026-06-07	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.60	Certified spectral functions from lattice Monte Carlo data	arxiv 2026-06-08	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.60	Conceptual and Geometric Foundations for a Teleparallel Approach to Quantum Gravity	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_004 By approximately 2027-2028, collaborative AI programs will essentially 'solve physics' — unifying general relativity and quantum mechanics into a new mathematical framework; the core mission of DeepMind is to 'first solve AI, then use AI to solve every... Demis Hassabis	AI	8%
0.60	Asymptotic Algebras and Holography of Information in CGHS Model	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.60	FDA BLA761063: EMGALITY (GALCANEZUMAB-GNLM) — ELI LILLY AND CO	fda 2026-06-05	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	FDA ANDA217298: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — MSN	fda 2026-06-03	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.60	Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.60	Will silver hit $60/oz by close on Friday?(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-06-10	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.60	Monte Carlo Pass Search: Using Trajectory Generation for 3D Counterfactual Pass Evaluation in Football	arxiv 2026-06-09	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Causal Ensemble Agent: Hierarchical Causal Discovery with LLM-guided Expert Reweighting	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Building Change Detection in Earthquake: A Multi-Scale Interaction Network and A Change Detection Dataset	arxiv 2026-06-09	248_032 First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be non-destructive. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	42%
0.60	Building Change Detection in Earthquake: A Multi-Scale Interaction Network and A Change Detection Dataset	arxiv 2026-06-09	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.60	Efficiently Learning Drifting Halfspaces with Massart Noise	arxiv 2026-06-09	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.60	Efficiently Learning Drifting Halfspaces with Massart Noise	arxiv 2026-06-09	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.60	Data-Driven Runway and Taxiway Exits Prediction of Landing Aircraft: A Case Study at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport	arxiv 2026-06-09	239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk	AI	47%
0.60	Pre-AF 13: An Interpretable Atrial Fibrillation Risk Score Mined from Discharge Reports	arxiv 2026-06-09	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	Profy: Interpretable Visualization of Expertise-Dependent Motor Skills Toward Supporting Piano Practice	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.60	Profy: Interpretable Visualization of Expertise-Dependent Motor Skills Toward Supporting Piano Practice	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Few-step Generative Models as Lossy Compression	arxiv 2026-06-09	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	DUET -- Dual User Embedding Transformers for Offsite Conversion Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.60	ANCHOR: Autoregressive Non-intrusive Chunk-Ordered Refinement for Joint Multi-Resolution Speech Quality Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.60	Prefilling-dLLM: Predictive Prefilling for Long-Context Inference in Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Planar-Sector LOS Guidance for Interception of Agile Targets with Lifting-Wing Quadcopters	arxiv 2026-06-09	SPC_015 AI will continuously analyze orbital trajectories of active satellites and space debris to predict collisions with superhuman accuracy — upon identifying collision risks, AI systems will autonomously command satellite Hall-effect thrusters to adjust or... Andrej Karpathy	Space	72%
0.60	A Friendly Phantom: Late-time AdS-to-dS transition and cosmological tensions	arxiv 2026-06-09	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	facebookresearch/fastText v0.9.2	github_release 2020-04-28	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.60	ARGAN INC (AGX) (CIK 0000100591)	edgar_8k 2026-06-10	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.60	Latent World Recovery for Multimodal Learning with Missing Modalities	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Adapting Prithvi-EO for Fallow Detection for Food-Water Nexus: ViT-Adapter Necks and Parameter-Efficient Backbone tuning of Geospatial Foundation Model	arxiv 2026-06-10	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.60	Quality Adaptive Angular Margin Learning for Respiratory Sound Classification	arxiv 2026-06-10	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.60	TextHOI-3D: Text-to-3D Hand-Object Interaction via Discrete Multi-View Generation and Joint Mesh Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	MultiToP: Learning to Patch Visual Tokens to Mitigate Hallucinations in Video Large Multimodal Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.60	What Limits Does Quantization Place on Dense Top-$k$ Retrieval? A Theoretical Study	arxiv 2026-06-10	240_033 AI will compress decades of research into years, months, weeks Salim Ismail	AI	42%
0.60	JailbreakOPT: Tool-Assisted Iterative Jailbreak Prompt Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-09	231_027 Algorithmic arbitration with cryptographic verification will create programmable governments. Salim Ismail	Other	44%
0.60	Adjoint Method versus Physics-Informed Neural Networks in PDE-Constrained Inverse Problems	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Adjoint Method versus Physics-Informed Neural Networks in PDE-Constrained Inverse Problems	arxiv 2026-06-10	SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Mathematics	15%
0.60	PianoKontext: Expressive Performance Rendering from Deadpan Context	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Quantum Occam Learning: Sample-Supported Expressibility for Circuit-Based Quantum Learning	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.60	NARRAS: Edge-Triggered Distributed Inference for CSI-Based Localization in Vehicular IoT Networks	arxiv 2026-06-10	SPC_016 AI transforms Earth Observation satellites via on-orbit edge computing — parsing raw visual and radar data in space, downlinking only actionable insights rather than raw imagery; permanently handing tedious low-cognitive tasks to AI and reserving human... Ben Lamm	Space	72%
0.60	Conformal Bayes under Label Shift: Post-Hoc Calibration vs. In-Training Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Capacity-Constrained Online Convex Optimization with Delayed Feedback	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	DeMix: Debugging Training Data with Mixed Data Error Types by Investigating Influence Vectors	arxiv 2026-06-10	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.60	Kuramoto Attention: Synchronizing Self-Attention on the Torus	arxiv 2026-06-10	238_038 Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Spatially Masked Regression Reveals Local and Distributed Predictability in Electrophysiological Recordings	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Decoding Multimodal Cues: Unveiling the Implicit Meaning Behind Hateful Videos	arxiv 2026-06-10	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.60	Pre-AF 13: An Interpretable Atrial Fibrillation Risk Score Mined from Discharge Reports	arxiv 2026-06-09	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	VLGA: Vision-Language-Geometry-Action Models for Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-10	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.60	Human-Guided Co-Manipulation of Carbon Fiber Plies	arxiv 2026-06-10	243_030 Multimodal delivery network will emerge: drones, sidewalk robots, bike-lane robots Dara Khosrowshahi	Robotics	31%
0.60	Improving Human Diving Endurance with a Field-Deployable, Untethered Exoskeleton	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_027 Integration of AI with advanced bio-sensing, quantum computing, and genomics enables humanity to achieve 'Longevity Escape Velocity' — tipping point where medical technology extends human lifespan faster than time passes; continuous biological surveill... Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	21%
0.60	Improving Human Diving Endurance with a Field-Deployable, Untethered Exoskeleton	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_024 Automated robotics and AI-powered monitoring will establish a global network of BioVaults — a 21st-century high-tech backup plan for life on Earth; as humanity faces potential extinction of nearly half of Earth's species by 2050 due to climate and habi... Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.60	Planar-Sector LOS Guidance for Interception of Agile Targets with Lifting-Wing Quadcopters	arxiv 2026-06-09	SPC_015 AI will continuously analyze orbital trajectories of active satellites and space debris to predict collisions with superhuman accuracy — upon identifying collision risks, AI systems will autonomously command satellite Hall-effect thrusters to adjust or... Andrej Karpathy	Space	72%
0.60	Entanglement generation between field modes mediated by a fluctuating conducting wall	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.60	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_lammps-0.4.0	github_release 2026-02-17	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.60	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.10.0	github_release 2025-10-23	IND_012 NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a decade — Evo 2 achieves 90% accuracy in BRCA1 predictions; AI models will seamlessly transition generated biological designs into practical, synthesized clinical... Jensen Huang	Biotech/Longevity	68%
0.60	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.9.0	github_release 2025-10-09	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.60	Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.60	Will Team WE win the LPL 2026 season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-20	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 40%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	SmartFont: Dynamic Condition Allocation for Few-Shot Font Generation	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.60	Multi-Field Hybrid Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Maritime Accident Root Cause Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	NTS-CoT: Mitigating Hallucinations in LLM-based News Timeline Summarization with Chain-of-Thought Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Zero-source LLM Hallucination Detection with Human-like Criteria Probing	arxiv 2026-06-11	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	JSCGC: Joint Source-Channel-Generation Coding for Wireless Generative Communications	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.60	EquiDexFlow: Contact-Grounded SE(3)-Equivariant Dexterous Grasp Generative Flows	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Dolph2Vec: Self-Supervised Representations of Dolphin Vocalizations	arxiv 2026-06-10	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	The Tone of Awareness: Topic, Sentiment, and Toxicity Maps During Mental Health Month on TikTok	arxiv 2026-06-11	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.60	When Does Mixing Help? Analyzing Query Embedding Interpolation in Multilingual Dense Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-11	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	MultiToP: Learning to Patch Visual Tokens to Mitigate Hallucinations in Video Large Multimodal Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.60	Comparing Commercial Depth Sensor Accuracy for Medical Applications	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	A ribbon ZX calculus for gauge theory	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	How traversable is a traversable wormhole?	arxiv 2026-06-10	240_012 Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few years Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	FDA BLA761458: EXDENSUR (DEPEMOKIMAB-ULAA) — GLAXOSMITHKLINE LLC	fda 2026-06-10	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	FDA BLA761458: EXDENSUR (DEPEMOKIMAB-ULAA) — GLAXOSMITHKLINE LLC	fda 2026-06-10	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.60	Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Spread: Norway (-1.5)(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.60	Will Claude Fable 5 be re-enabled for Non-Americans before July 1st, 2026?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-06-13	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.60	facebookresearch/fairseq v0.7.0	github_release 2019-06-20	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.60	LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs(market prob: 85%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi	Other	53%
0.60	Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will this resolves to Yes or No(market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-06-14	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.60	Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X?	manifold 2026-06-13	232_036 AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE. Ben Horowitz	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.60	facebookresearch/QuaterNet v1.0	github_release 2018-06-06	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.60	Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	FUT_023 'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	68%
0.60	Will England win on 2026-06-17?(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.60	Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5)(market prob: 69%)	polymarket 2026-06-14	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.6.2	github_release 2022-04-28	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.60	Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Will Tereza Valentova win the 2026 Women’s US Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.60	Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.60	Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Spread: Algeria (-1.5)(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5(market prob: 75%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	C3.ai, Inc. (AI) (CIK 0001577526)	edgar_8k 2026-06-16	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.60	Learning aligned EEG representations with subject-specific encoders	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	Who Should Lead Decoding Now? Tracking Reliable Trajectories for Ensembling Masked Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	230_031 We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across many fields starting now. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.60	Who Should Lead Decoding Now? Tracking Reliable Trajectories for Ensembling Masked Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.60	RealityBridge: Bridging Editable 3D Gaussian Splatting Driving Simulations and Real-World Videos	arxiv 2026-06-15	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.60	A Comprehensive Survey of Medical Image Segmentation: Challenges, Benchmarks, and Beyond	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Cross-Silo De-Anonymization Under Local Differential Privacy: Threat Model, Phase Transition, and Coordination Necessity	arxiv 2026-06-15	232_060 We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	44%
0.60	Cross-Silo De-Anonymization Under Local Differential Privacy: Threat Model, Phase Transition, and Coordination Necessity	arxiv 2026-06-15	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.60	Robust Neural Tucker Factorization with Bias Correction and Adaptive Initialization	arxiv 2026-06-15	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.60	One-Step Generalization Ratio Guided Optimization for Domain Generalization	arxiv 2026-06-15	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Data-driven Control with Real-time Uncertainty Compensation for Multi-Fuel Engines	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Active Learning with Low-Rank Structure for Data Selection	arxiv 2026-06-14	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Decomposing one-class support vector machine into an ensemble of one-data support vector machines	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.60	Retrievable Gradients: Continual Post-Training Without Cumulative Weight Drift	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Anisotropic Template Ansätze for Robust Positive Invariance under State-Dependent Uncertainty	arxiv 2026-06-14	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.60	Generalized Unimodular Gravity and Cosmological Perturbations	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.60	Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Will a current moderator lose their role before end of month?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-06-17	231_016 Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will go away. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.60	Free Lottery (cosmic inflation)(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-06-17	234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.60	Waymo in Portland in 2026?(market prob: 49%)	manifold 2026-06-16	242_013 Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	55%
0.60	Kolmogorov Regression for Robust Diffusion Policies	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.60	SegTME-UNI2: A Foundation Model-Based Framework for Generalisable Multiclass Cell Segmentation and LLM-Driven Tumour Microenvironment Characterisation in Histopathology	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Temporal Preference Optimization for Unsupervised Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	DriveJudge: Rethinking Autonomous Driving Evaluation with Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.60	MLLP-VRAIN UPV system for the IWSLT 2026 Simultaneous Speech Translation task	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Tensor-based second-order causal discovery	arxiv 2026-06-16	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.60	NoiseTilt: Noise-Tilted Reverse Kernels for Diffusion Reward Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-16	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.60	Meta-classification of one-class classification models using ranking correlation and nearest neighbor	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_014 Most profound impacts of autonomous AI originate NOT from closed proprietary models within multi-billion-dollar corporate data centers, but from globally distributed open-source models — open-weight parity with frontier systems enables any individual o... Emad Mostaque	AI	53%
0.60	Darshana Graph: A Parallel Commentary Corpus for Comparative Indian Philosophy, with Stylometric and Exploratory Graph Analyses	arxiv 2026-06-16	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	HistoRAG: Embedding Historical Methodology in Retrieval-Augmented Generation Through Critical Technical Practice	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.60	ConSA: Controllable Sparsity in Hybrid Attention via Learnable Allocation	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.60	Beyond Native Success: Auditing Deployment-Interface Exposure of CLIP Backdoors	arxiv 2026-06-16	AI_028 Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey's launch of Bitchat — will become critical infrastructure for verifiable human communication as the internet is flooded with synthetic content and deep... Jack Dorsey	Crypto	28%
0.60	LLMs Infer Cultural Context but Fail to Apply It When Responding	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	The Critical Role of Model Selection in Causal Inference: A Comparative Analysis of Classification Models within the InferBERT Framework for Pharmacovigilance	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.60	Fourier-Preconditioned Path Deformations for Multi-Field Vacuum Tunnelling	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.60	Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-06-18	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.60	CENTRUS ENERGY CORP (LEU) (CIK 0001065059)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60	CENTRUS ENERGY CORP (LEU) (CIK 0001065059)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60	SAERec: Constructing Fine-grained Interpretable Intents Priors via Sparse Autoencoders for Recommendation	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.60	CaVe-VLM-CoT: An Interpretable Vision-Language Model Framework	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.60	The Chandra-Gaia Catalog of Counterparts: Resolving ambiguous Gaia matches to X-ray sources in the Chandra Source Catalog using Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.60	P-K-GCN: Physics-augmented Koopman-enhanced Graph Convolutional Network for Deep Spatiotemporal Super-resolution	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	Smoothness-Based Derandomization of PAC-Bayes Bounds	arxiv 2026-06-17	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.60	Test-Time Adaptation in Optical Coherence Tomography Using Trajectory-Aligned Time-Independent Flow	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.60	A Cross-Model VLM-Judge Protocol for Single-Image 3D Mesh Quality (and Why Cheap Proxies Fall Short)	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	A Cross-Model VLM-Judge Protocol for Single-Image 3D Mesh Quality (and Why Cheap Proxies Fall Short)	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.60	A Cross-Model VLM-Judge Protocol for Single-Image 3D Mesh Quality (and Why Cheap Proxies Fall Short)	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	IndicContextEval: A Benchmark for Evaluating Context Utilisation in Audio Large Language Models Across 8 Indic Languages	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Enhancing Multilingual Reasoning via Steerable Model Merging	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	SAMA: Semantic Anchor-aligned Augmentation for Unified Low-Resource Multimodal Information Extraction	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	PragReST: Self-Reinforcing Counterfactual Reasoning for Pragmatic Language Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Motion-Focused Latent Action Enables Cross-Embodiment VLA Training from Human EgoVideos	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.60	DNN Koopman-Based Deviation Compensation for UGV Path Tracking Control on Coupled Slope and Potholed Road	arxiv 2026-06-17	242_059 Self-flying eVTOLs will be the norm given AI safety advantages Dave Blundin	Auto/Transport	45%
0.60	The pole truth: an analytical graviton propagator from Asymptotic Safety	arxiv 2026-06-16	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.60	Ground state preparation of random all-to-all Hamiltonians using ADAPT-VQE	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.60	Spread: Brazil (-2.5)(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Spread: Brazil (-1.5)(market prob: 73%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Will Hannes Steinbach be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.60	Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Brazil leading at halftime?(market prob: 70%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.60	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.60	Will Scott McTominay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.60	Counter-Strike: ReThink vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Free Lottery (dark matter)(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-06-19	238_038 Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Boundary Embedding Shaping with Adaptive Contrastive Learning for Graph Structural Disentanglement	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	MakeupMirror: Improving Facial Attribute Preservation in Diffusion Models for Makeup Transfer	arxiv 2026-06-18	231_020 Smart glasses with face recognition will become part of normative culture (peer pressure forces opt-in). Dave Blundin	Consumer	50%
0.60	Variable-Length Tokenization via Learnable Global Merging for Diffusion Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-18	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.60	Data Bias Mitigation under Coverage Constraints & The Price of Fairness	arxiv 2026-06-18	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.60	Effective Dimension Governs Generalization in Quantum Kernel Vision Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Structure-Oriented Randomized Neural Networks for Poisson-Nernst-Planck and Poisson-Nernst-Planck-Navier-Stokes Systems	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Adversarial Bandit Optimization with Globally Bounded Perturbations to Convex Losses	arxiv 2026-06-18	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.60	An Information Theoretic Framework for Graph Novelty Generation via Latent Mixture Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	An Information Theoretic Framework for Graph Novelty Generation via Latent Mixture Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Federated Bilevel Performative Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.60	Variational Consensus Monte Carlo for Bayesian Mixture	arxiv 2026-06-17	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Calibrating Generative Models to Feature Distributions with MMD Finetuning	arxiv 2026-06-17	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.60	StylisticBias: A Few Human Visual Cues Drive Most Social Biases in MLLMs	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	MiqraBERT: Regression-Based Sentence-BERT Finetuning for Biblical Hebrew Parallel Detection	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Evaluation of Augmented Reality-based Intuitive Interface for Robot-Assisted Transesophageal Echocardiography: A User Study	arxiv 2026-06-18	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.60	Constraining ADD black holes at the LHC with $\sqrt{s} = 14$ TeV	arxiv 2026-06-18	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Moduli Stabilisation for ADD and the Dark Dimension Scenario	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	FDA NDA016673: DEXTROSE 5% IN PLASTIC CONTAINER (DEXTROSE) — BAXTER HLTHCARE	fda 2026-06-11	245_009 Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	45%
0.60	FDA NDA016673: DEXTROSE 5% IN PLASTIC CONTAINER (DEXTROSE) — BAXTER HLTHCARE	fda 2026-06-11	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.60	Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw?(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Starmer out by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Ecuador leading at halftime?(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-05	SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail	Labor/Jobs	37%
0.60	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.60	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 20%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.60	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-21	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.60	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.60	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.60	Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.60	Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.60	Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-30?(market prob: 40%)	polymarket 2026-04-17	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.60	What percentage uptime will the Unofficial GitHub Status Page show for the last 90 Days on May 31st, 2026?	manifold 2026-04-29	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.60	When will the Gravity Chess finals happen?	manifold 2026-04-27	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.60	Do you like 4% odds?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-04-27	239_017 Future is 80%+ likely to be great Elon Musk	Other	50%
0.60	What will I get at IMO 2026?	manifold 2026-04-27	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.60	Will ICE be renamed as NICE in 2026?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-04-27	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.60	Will at least one World Marathon Major be won under 2 hours every year until end of 2029?(market prob: 77%)	manifold 2026-04-26	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will "Forecasting is Way Overrated, and We Should S..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-04-26	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.60	If there is an EAGxNordics 2027, where will it take place in?	manifold 2026-04-25	FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan	Macro/Economy	72%
0.60	Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	43%
0.60	Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-04	232_059 Universal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on capital side of ledger. Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	34%
0.60	article f2a47492 8d06 57cd 8c0a 7492330da42b.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.60	bitcoin bestaende elon musks vater enthuellt ueberraschende bitcoin bestaende der familie 00 15640043	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban	Economy	30%
0.60		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.60	index?more=4376950	gdelt 2026-04-30	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.60	new details released about settlement in spacex lawsuit against state coastal commission	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	ch robinson chrw q1 2026 232738016.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	AUT_024 H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int... Morgan Stanley	AI	42%
0.60	were raising our price target on amazon by 50 after killer quarter.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_008 Anthropic will try to hit $200 billion ARR, not reach trillion the following year Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.60	1256561.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_020 Nvidia preemptively reserved 800,000-850,000 TSMC wafers for 2026 — 8x SMIC's entire advanced-process capacity. Nvidia (All-In Podcast analysis)	Semis	74%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.60	Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.60	Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	43%
0.60	Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.60	Spread: Rockets (-3.5)(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.60	Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 218.5(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Will US average gas price reach $4.500 in May 2026?(market prob: 95%)	manifold 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60	76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 205.5(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-02?(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Spread: Spurs (-13.5)(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.60	Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	84%
0.60	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03?(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.60	Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	How active will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season be?	manifold 2026-05-02	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.60	Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	243_001 Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.60	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	What will I get at IMO 2026?	manifold 2026-05-03	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.60	Manifold Meta-Futarchy 2026	manifold 2026-05-02	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	Spread: Knicks (-7.5)(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-04-22	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Spread: Spurs (-12.5)(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will Vic NEM 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$115/MWh?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-05-04	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.60	Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz on any week in 2026?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-04	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.60	Will Vedanta Aluminium (Vedanta Limited)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-05-04	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Do you like 96% odds?(market prob: 96%)	manifold 2026-05-04	239_017 Future is 80%+ likely to be great Elon Musk	Other	50%
0.60	Do you like 96% odds?(market prob: 96%)	manifold 2026-05-04	247_013 99% of randomly selected white collar jobs could be replaced by AI today Peter Dannenberg	Labor/Jobs	22%
0.60	How many fives will 2025-2026 Frazer AP Biology get?	manifold 2026-05-04	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.60	EKSO BIONICS HOLDINGS, INC. (EKSO) (CIK 0001549084)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	TK08 Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)	—	22%
0.60	Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.60	Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.60	Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	IND_011 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... Jason Calacanis	Macro/Economy	58%
0.60	Will the US average gas price hit $5 per gallon in May 2026?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-05-05	241_021 America can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildout Eric Schmidt	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.60	Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_014 Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. Morgan Stanley	Energy	42%
0.60	FDA ANDA205105: METHYLPHENIDATE HYDROCHLORIDE (METHYLPHENIDATE HYDROCHLORIDE) — IMPAX LABS INC	fda 2026-04-21	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	FDA ANDA220147: TOLVAPTAN (TOLVAPTAN) — ALKEM LABS LTD	fda 2026-04-21	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	FDA ANDA207110: BOSENTAN (BOSENTAN) — WATSON LABS INC	fda 2026-04-14	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.60	FDA BLA761298: PAVBLU (AFLIBERCEPT-AYYH) — AMGEN INC	fda 2026-04-28	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.60	openai/openai-python v2.32.0	github_release 2026-04-15	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.60	huggingface/transformers v5.6.0	github_release 2026-04-22	234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.60	huggingface/transformers v4.56.2	github_release 2025-09-17	S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028 Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028	humanoid_deployment	50%
0.60	meta-llama/llama-api-typescript v0.1.2	github_release 2025-06-28	237_018 We are seeing a Cambrian explosion of OpenClaw variants (PicoClaw, IronClaw, NanoClaw, Nanobot, etc.) with many more to come. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.60	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.19.0-rc0	github_release 2025-02-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	pytorch/pytorch v2.9.1	github_release 2025-11-12	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.60	pytorch/pytorch v2.9.0	github_release 2025-10-15	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.60	pytorch/pytorch v2.2.1	github_release 2024-02-22	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.60	pytorch/pytorch v2.2.0	github_release 2024-01-30	239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk	AI	47%
0.60	facebookresearch/ProgramBench v1.0.0	github_release 2026-05-05	235_010 Plugins/marketplaces will get built into baseline models and won't need to exist independently. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.60	1x-technologies/halodi-robot-models 2.3.3	github_release 2020-11-03	247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis	Robotics	32%
0.60	Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-03-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-02-16	229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock	Robotics	62%
0.60	Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.60	Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.60	Will @grins or @megahertz fakesolve a TSTST problem with the Method of Moving Points?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-05-06	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.60	US Gas Price hits $4(NO) or $5(YES) Next?(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-05-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60	MANIFOLD TURING TEST: Can commenters distinguish snigus's vs CalibratedGhosts's replies ≥75%?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-05	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	AdapShot: Adaptive Many-Shot In-Context Learning with Semantic-Aware KV Cache Reuse	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_040 AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant global memory suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). Samsung executives	Semis/Memory	62%
0.60	GeoDecider: A Coarse-to-Fine Agentic Workflow for Explainable Lithology Classification	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.60	The 2026 ACII Dyadic Conversations (DaiKon) Workshop & Challenge	arxiv 2026-05-04	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.60	Conditional Diffusion Sampling	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Pretrained Model Representations as Acquisition Signals for Active Learning of MLIPs	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	Realizable Bayes-Consistency for General Metric Losses	arxiv 2026-05-05	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	GRAFT: Auditing Graph Neural Networks via Global Feature Attribution	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Distributed Learning with Adversarial Gradient Perturbations	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_059 Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds. Alex Finn	AI	62%
0.60	Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.60	Selective Prediction from Agreement: A Lipschitz-Consistent Version Space Approach	arxiv 2026-05-04	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Benchmarking Retrieval Strategies for Biomedical Retrieval-Augmented Generation: A Controlled Empirical Study	arxiv 2026-05-04	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	Parafermionic and decoupled multicritical points in a frustrated $\mathbb{Z}_6$ clock chain	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	From Finite-Node Conifold Geometry to BPS Structures III: Mediated Triangle Transport and Graded Interaction Data	arxiv 2026-05-04	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.60	FDA ANDA211536: DAPAGLIFLOZIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — CIPLA LTD	fda 2026-04-06	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	FDA ANDA211479: DAPAGLIFLOZIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — MSN	fda 2026-04-06	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	FDA ANDA210480: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — ALVOGEN	fda 2026-04-27	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.60	FDA BLA761467: KEYTRUDA QLEX (PEMBROLIZUMAB) — MERCK SHARP DOHME	fda 2026-06-12	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	FDA NDA215430: AUVELITY (BUPROPION HYDROCHLORIDE) — AXSOME	fda 2026-04-30	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.60	FDA ANDA216327: DILTIAZEM HYDROCHLORIDE (DILTIAZEM HYDROCHLORIDE) — SCIEGEN PHARMS	fda 2026-04-10	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.60	FDA ANDA211582: DAPAGLIFLOZIN (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — ZYDUS PHARMS	fda 2026-04-06	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	facebookresearch/map-anything v1.1.1	github_release 2026-03-23	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.60	Valorant: Team Liquid vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.60	Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-21	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #1 Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.60	Beyond Semantics: An Evidential Reasoning-Aware Multi-View Learning Framework for Trustworthy Mental Health Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Sentiment Analysis and Customer Satisfaction Prediction on E-Commerce Platforms Based on YouTube Comments Using the XGBoost Algorithm	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	facebookresearch/balance 0.18.0	github_release 2026-03-24	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.60	facebookresearch/balance 0.17.0	github_release 2026-03-17	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.60	facebookresearch/balance 0.15.0	github_release 2026-01-20	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.60	facebookresearch/balance 0.13.0	github_release 2025-12-02	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.60	facebookresearch/balance 0.7.0	github_release 2023-04-10	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.60	Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.60	In which 2026 month will Firefox hit Peak Cyber?	manifold 2026-05-08	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.60	Who will win Startup World Cup Silicon Valley Regional 2026?	manifold 2026-05-08	IND_011 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... Jason Calacanis	Macro/Economy	58%
0.60	Who will become president first?	manifold 2026-05-07	247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	46%
0.60	PACZero: PAC-Private Fine-Tuning of Language Models via Sign Quantization	arxiv 2026-05-07	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	COVID-19 Infodemic. Understanding content features in detecting fake news using a machine learning approach	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_028 Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey's launch of Bitchat — will become critical infrastructure for verifiable human communication as the internet is flooded with synthetic content and deep... Jack Dorsey	Crypto	28%
0.60	Addressing Labelled Data Scarcity: Taxonomy-Agnostic Annotation of PII Values in HTTP Traffic using LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.60	Towards Annotation-Free Validation of MLLMs: A Vision-Language Logical Consistency Metric	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.60	Quantizing With Randomized Hadamard Transforms: Efficient Heuristic Now Proven	arxiv 2026-05-07	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.60	XDecomposer: Learning Prior-Free Set Decomposition for Multiphase X-ray Diffraction	arxiv 2026-05-07	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	Diffusion-Based Posterior Sampling: A Feynman-Kac Analysis of Bias and Stability	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Efficient Techniques for Data Reconstruction, with Finite-Width Recovery Guarantees	arxiv 2026-05-07	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	FRInGe: Distribution-Space Integrated Gradients with Fisher--Rao Geometry	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Data-Driven Covariate Selection for Nonparametric and Cycle-Agnostic Causal Effect Estimation	arxiv 2026-05-07	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.60	PACE: Prune-And-Compress Ensemble Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.60	When Labels Have Structure: Improving Image Classification with Hierarchy-Aware Cross-Entropy	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.60	Trade-off Functions for DP-SGD with Subsampling based on Random Shuffling: Tight Upper and Lower Bounds	arxiv 2026-05-07	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.60	The Role of Node Features in Graph Pooling	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Structure-Preserving Gaussian Processes Via Discrete Euler-Lagrange Equations	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Geometry-Aware Simplicial Message Passing	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.60	Gaussian mixture models in Hilbert spaces via kernel methods	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Parser agreement and disagreement in L2 Korean UD: Implications for human-in-the-loop annotation	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Negative Before Positive: Asymmetric Valence Processing in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.60	On the equivalence of unitarization prescriptions for the Sommerfeld enhancement	arxiv 2026-05-06	248_031 Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	39%
0.60	FDA ANDA060469: TETRACYCLINE HYDROCHLORIDE (TETRACYCLINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — IMPAX LABS	fda 2026-04-17	245_009 Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	45%
0.60	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10?(market prob: 63%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner	Energy	57%
0.60	O/U 2.5 Rounds(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-04-18	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.60	Will OMIE Spain 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed €60/MWh?(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-04	S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027	energy_grid_expansion	40%
0.60	Pistons vs. Cavaliers(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BC.Game Esports (+1.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.60	How long will Trump and Xi shake hands when they meet? [Polymarket]	manifold 2026-05-11	234_037 Civilizational left turns will hit us in the next 1-2 years Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	42%
0.60	Will the US unilaterally restructure outstanding Treasury debt (coupon, maturity, swap) by December 31, 2030?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-05-11	S_RECESSION_2027 NBER recession declared 2027	macro_recession	30%
0.60	Mana inflation protection bonds	manifold 2026-05-11	232_059 Universal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on capital side of ledger. Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	34%
0.60	Who will own the pinky of @draaglom at EOY 2026?	manifold 2026-05-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60	facebookresearch/spdl v0.1.2	github_release 2025-08-21	COD_AI_001 Vera Rubin becomes commercially available across major cloud and OEM partners by H2 2026 Codex Research Pack	Technology	51%
0.60	US strike on Cuba by December 31?(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-01-04	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.60	Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2025-09-15	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.60	Will Germany pass a law that allows a weekly maximum working time of 48 hours per week before the end of 2027?(market prob: 59%)	manifold 2026-05-12	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.60	C3.ai, Inc. (AI) (CIK 0001577526)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	232_060 We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	44%
0.60	facebookresearch/HolisticTraceAnalysis v0.5.0	github_release 2025-05-28	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.60	facebookresearch/HolisticTraceAnalysis v0.1.2	github_release 2023-01-07	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.60	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.3.3	github_release 2024-02-16	AUT_021 Defining software movement of 2026: startups building autonomous platforms specifically designed to clean/structure/continuously validate multimodal data — unstructured corporate sludge (PDFs, logs, videos, emails) causes autonomous agentic workflows t... Marc Andreessen	AI	57%
0.60	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.3.0	github_release 2023-12-19	234_004 Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.3.0	github_release 2023-12-19	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.60	Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi	Other	53%
0.60	Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.60	Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.60	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.60	Will "Empowerment, corrigibility, etc. are simple a..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-05-13	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.60	ORCE: Order-Aware Alignment of Verbalized Confidence in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-12	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	KAN-CL: Per-Knot Importance Regularization for Continual Learning with Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks	arxiv 2026-05-12	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.60	What makes a word hard to learn? Modeling L1 influence on English vocabulary difficulty	arxiv 2026-05-12	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.60	Reconstruction of Personally Identifiable Information from Supervised Finetuned Models	arxiv 2026-05-12	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	Instruction Lens Score: Your Instruction Contributes a Powerful Object Hallucination Detector for Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-12	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	A Unified Graph Language Model for Multi-Domain Multi-Task Graph Alignment Instruction Tuning	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	STRUM: A Spectral Transcription and Rhythm Understanding Model for End-to-End Generation of Playable Rhythm-Game Charts	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Towards Order Fairness: Mitigating LLMs Order Sensitivity through Dual Group Advantage Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-12	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.60	Bin Latent Transformer (BiLT): A shift-invariant autoencoder for calibration-free spectral unmixing of turbid media	arxiv 2026-05-12	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Fed-BAC: Federated Bandit-Guided Additive Clustering in Hierarchical Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	pytorch/pytorch v2.12.0	github_release 2026-05-13	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.60	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will David Luna Sánchez win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.60	If we automate every FIFA World Cup market and resolution, how many traders will @ManifoldSports have by the end?	manifold 2026-05-13	234_032 Market for humanoids and general purpose automation will be $50 trillion Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	29%
0.60	If we automate every FIFA World Cup market and resolution, how many traders will @ManifoldSports have by the end?	manifold 2026-05-13	237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn	Crypto	43%