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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.61	When will I reach 100 followers on this account?	manifold 2026-05-25	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	What amounts of mana will manifolders managram me?	manifold 2026-05-24	INF_019 A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for evaporative cooling — roughly equivalent to municipal supply for a town of 50,000 people. Elon Musk	Energy	62%
0.61	Will "Fail safe(r) at alignment by channeling rewar..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-24	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.61	Will this market get between 50-100 unique traders?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-05-24	234_032 Market for humanoids and general purpose automation will be $50 trillion Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	29%
0.61	Disbursements from Trump Anti-Weaponization Fund exceed 1 billion dollars before dissolution?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-05-24	247_027 Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.61	MedCase-Structured: A Text-to-FHIR Dataset for Benchmarking Diagnostic Reasoning in Clinically Realistic EHR Settings	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Do Language Models Track Entities Across State Changes?	arxiv 2026-05-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	What drives performance in molecular MPNNs? An operator-level factorial benchmark	arxiv 2026-05-28	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.61	Genetically Aligned Patient Representations Improve Hematological Diagnosis	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_012 NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a decade — Evo 2 achieves 90% accuracy in BRCA1 predictions; AI models will seamlessly transition generated biological designs into practical, synthesized clinical... Jensen Huang	Biotech/Longevity	68%
0.61	FHRFormer: A Self-Supervised Masked Transformer Framework for Fetal Heart Rate Time-Series Inpainting and Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	SCOPE: A Lightweight-training LLM Framework for Air Traffic Control Readback Monitoring	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.61	GUITestScape: Towards Open-set Evaluation on Exploratory GUI Testing	arxiv 2026-05-28	234_050 Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilities Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Active Continual Learning with Metaplastic Binary Bayesian Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-28	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.61	Distributionally Robust Set Representation Learning Under Inference-Time Element Corruption	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Plan, Don't Pose: Long Composite Motion Generation with Text-Aligned BFM	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.61	Forget Less, Generalize More: Unifying Temporal and Structural Adaptation for Dynamic Graphs	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Constructing efficient channels for ideal observers using the conjugate gradient method	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.61	Deep Adaptive Dimension Reduction for Bayesian Inference in Inverse Problems	arxiv 2026-05-28	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.61	Mixing Vector Model for Copolymer Inference via Mixed Integer Linear Programming	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	GrepSeek: Training Search Agents for Direct Corpus Interaction	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	Learning to Feel Materials from Multisensory Tactile Data via Interpretable Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	FDA BLA761452: IMMGOLIS (GOLIMUMAB-SLDI) — ACCORD BIOPHARMA INC.	fda 2026-05-15	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.61	FDA NDA210251: BIKTARVY (BICTEGRAVIR SODIUM) — GILEAD SCIENCES INC	fda 2026-05-21	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.61	Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Kostyuk (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	How many unique viewers will this market end with?	manifold 2026-05-30	243_032 Uber business growing at >20% and audience growing at ~20% Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	48%
0.61	Will I bet on this market?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-05-30	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will Bitcoin's biggest single-hour move this week be up or down?	manifold 2026-05-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Brazil 2026 Election: Will Brazil’s third way fail the 10% test?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-05-27	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.61	Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 40%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.61	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-09-19	240_030 Tesla's independent chip production would derisk potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	35%
0.61	Global Average Temperature June 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)	manifold 2026-06-01	COD_SPC_007 NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist Codex Research Pack	Space	43%
0.61	Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) (CIK 0001633978)	edgar_8k 2026-06-01	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.61	FDA ANDA220299: ISOPROTERENOL HYDROCHLORIDE (ISOPROTERENOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — ASPIRO	fda 2026-05-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	FDA ANDA219529: CARBOPROST TROMETHAMINE (CARBOPROST TROMETHAMINE) — SOMERSET THERAPS LLC	fda 2026-05-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	FDA ANDA213362: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — DAITO	fda 2026-05-27	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	FDA ANDA220673: CLOMIPHENE CITRATE (CLOMIPHENE CITRATE) — ASCENT PHARMS INC	fda 2026-05-15	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	FDA NDA217186: CREXONT (CARBIDOPA) — IMPAX	fda 2026-05-15	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Starmer out by June 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.61	Will MIBR win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will my trader bonuses exceed… for the June season?	manifold 2026-06-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	US Gas Price $4.250 or below in June 2026?(market prob: 89%)	manifold 2026-06-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Will someone send me 1000 or more mana before this market closes?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-06-02	246_031 Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-06-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	CityTrajBench: A Unified Benchmark for City-Scale Vehicle Trajectory Generation	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Fair Finetuning Mitigates Distribution Inference Attacks	arxiv 2026-06-01	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	TN-SHAP-G: Graph-Structured Tensor Network Surrogates for Shapley Values and Interactions	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	MURMUR: An Efficient Inference System for Long-Form ASR	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	Local Preferential Bayesian Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.61	Deep Learning for Remote Sensing to Improve Flood Inundation Mapping	arxiv 2026-06-01	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.61	A Doeblin-Anchored Contrastive Chart for Learning Markov Transition Kernels	arxiv 2026-06-01	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	Network Learning with Semi-relaxed Gromov-Wasserstein	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Flow-Transformed Implicit Processes for Function-Space Variational Inference	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Beyond the Simplex: Balanced Prototype Geometry for Scorer-Agnostic Open-Set Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.61	Beyond the Simplex: Balanced Prototype Geometry for Scorer-Agnostic Open-Set Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Tree-Guided Identify-Then-Exploit: A Unified Framework of Best Arm Identification and Regret Minimization for Dueling Bandits	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Perception First: A Frontier Native-Video Model with Self-Consistency for Implicit Video Question Answering	arxiv 2026-05-31	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.61	Do Gender Cues Affect LLM Value Trade-offs? Evidence from a Controlled Decision Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-01	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.61	GuidaPA: Privacy-Preserving Chatbot for Public Administration via Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-05-31	AI_037 EU AI Act compliance will become a first-class enterprise priority — Anthropic among first frontier labs positioning proactive regulatory governance as a competitive differentiator against hyperscaler peers. Daniella Amodei	Geopolitics	60%
0.61	Don't Read Everything: A Curvature-Conditioned Query for Linear Attention	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	CA-BED: Conversation-Aware Bayesian Experimental Design	arxiv 2026-05-31	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.61	ExpWeaver: LLM Agents Learn from Experience via Latent RAG	arxiv 2026-05-31	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Revise, Don't Freeze: Sampler-Matched Training for Self-Correcting Masked Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-31	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Decoding in Order-Agnostic Language Models: Chain-Rule Deviation and Uniform Spreading	arxiv 2026-05-31	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will Club The Strongest win on 2026-06-20?(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Nathan (NotARoomba) say 67 before 8th Jun(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-06-03	238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick	Robotics	42%
0.61	CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) (CIK 0001535527)	edgar_8k 2026-06-03	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.61	Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 5?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.61	Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 5?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will Manifold change share quest criteria in June?	manifold 2026-06-03	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.61	Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.61	Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Bidirectional Search for Longest Paths: Case for Front-to-Front Heuristics	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Class-Specific Branch Attention for Mitigating Gradient Interference under Class Imbalance	arxiv 2026-06-04	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.61	Multilingual Fine-Tuning via Localized Gradient Conflict Resolution	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	GRAMformer: Any-Order Modality Interactions via Volumetric Multimodal Cross-Attention	arxiv 2026-06-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Adaptive Oscillatory-State Alignment for Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-04	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Fast and Robust Convergence Rate for TD(0) with Linear Function Approximation, Universal Learning Steps and I.I.D. Samples	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Intercomparison of Machine Learning Algorithms for Remote Sensing-based In-season Crop Mapping	arxiv 2026-06-04	SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	56%
0.61	Field Validation of a Multi-Resolution ConvLSTM Framework for Retaining Wall Deformation Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	GLASS: GRPO-Trained LoRA for Acoustic Style Steering in Zero-Shot Text-to-Speech	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.61	AURA: Intent-Directed Probing for Implicit-Need Surfacing in Situated LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	ReasoningFlow: Discourse Structures for Understanding LLM Reasoning Traces	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Fast & Faithful Function Vectors	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	TIDE: Proactive Multi-Problem Discovery via Template-Guided Iteration	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.61	RadiusFPS: Efficient Farthest Point Sampling on CPUs and GPUs via Spherical Voxel Pruning	arxiv 2026-06-04	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.61	Visuotactile and Explicitly Force-Controlled Robotic Ultrasound for Abdominal Volumetric Reconstruction	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	LDARNet: DNA Adaptive Representation Network with Learnable Tokenization for Genomic Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Dirichlet walls and the end of time	arxiv 2026-06-03	234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.61	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06?(market prob: 88%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will Kyrgyz Republic vs. Palestine end in a draw?(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06?(market prob: 65%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will the S&P500 be down greater than 1% in a week?(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-06-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Will Spain win on 2026-06-08?(market prob: 85%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Spain win on 2026-06-08?(market prob: 85%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 8?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.61	The Masked Advantage: Uncovering Local-Language Access to Cultural Knowledge in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-05	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.61	Mitosis Detection in the Wild: Multi-Tumor and Context-Aware Generalization in the MIDOG 2025 Challenge	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	SV-Detect: AI-generated Text Detection with Steering Vectors	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	CULTURESCORE: Evaluating Cultural Faithfulness in Video Generation Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	SS-TPT: Stability and Suitability-Guided Test-Time Prompt Tuning for Adversarially Robust Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	Generative Modeling of Discrete Latent Structures via Dynamic Policy Gradients	arxiv 2026-06-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Trio: Learning Time-Series Forecasting with Temporal-Spatial-Sample Attention and Structural Causal Priors	arxiv 2026-06-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Trio: Learning Time-Series Forecasting with Temporal-Spatial-Sample Attention and Structural Causal Priors	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	On the conditional equivalence of phase retrieval algorithms	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Constructing VAE Latent Spaces with Prescribed Topology	arxiv 2026-06-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	GenPO++: Generative Policy Optimization with Jacobian-free Likelihood Ratios	arxiv 2026-06-05	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.61	Contrastive Training with LLM-generated Near-Misses for Robust Code-Switching Speech Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Physiologically Constrained Musculoskeletal Neural Network for Multi-DoF Joint Kinematics Estimation from Partially Observed sEMG	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Will Peru win on 2026-06-08?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.61	Change in US support for same-sex marriage, 2026-2027	manifold 2026-06-08	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.61	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-06-08	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	10x Genomics, Inc. (TXG) (CIK 0001770787)	edgar_8k 2026-06-08	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	DAVITA INC. (DVA) (CIK 0000927066)	edgar_8k 2026-06-08	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.61	FDA ANDA215939: OXCARBAZEPINE (OXCARBAZEPINE) — ANNORA PHARMA	fda 2026-05-28	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09?(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09?(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09?(market prob: 84%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Fed (Kevin Warsh) cut interest rates by July 2026?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-06-09	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.61	Visual Prompting Meets Feature Reconstruction-Based Anomaly Detection with Dual-Teacher Supervision	arxiv 2026-06-08	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	Proposal Refinement for Few-Shot Object Detection	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	IMUG-Bench: Benchmarking Unified Multimodal Models on Interleaved Understanding and Generation	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	SEF-CLGC at SemEval-2026 Task 11: Logical Notation Impact on Language Model Performance	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	An Enhanced Geometric-Spectral Feature Learning Framework for Airborne Multispectral Point Cloud Classification	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	INFUSER: Influence-Guided Self-Evolution Improves Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Intelligent Character Recognition of Handwritten Forms with Deep Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Bridging Expert Knowledge and Automated Feature Engineering via Self-Evolution	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Bridging Expert Knowledge and Automated Feature Engineering via Self-Evolution	arxiv 2026-06-07	CYB_017 Prompt engineering evolves into a specialized commerce vector — marketplaces (PromptBase-style) emerge where skilled practitioners sell highly optimized, reliable text descriptions; proving AI displaces execution but rewards precise instructional logic... David Holz	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.61	Adaptive directional gradients for parameterised quantum circuits	arxiv 2026-06-08	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.61	What the Eyes See, the LLMs Miss: Exploiting Human Perception for Adversarial Text Attacks	arxiv 2026-06-08	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	On Choosing the $μ$ Parameter in Gaussian Differential Privacy	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Integrating gene regulatory priors into Transformer attention with scTransformer for interpretable scRNA-seq analysis	arxiv 2026-06-08	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.61	Multi-Armed Bandits with Arriving Arms: Sequential Screening, Dynamic Regret, and Sublinear Guarantees	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Generalization in Nonlinear Least Squares via Learned Feature Geometry	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	A Comparison of SSL-Based Feature Extractors and Back-End Classifiers for Spoofing Detection: A Multi-Corpus Training and Cross-Linguistic Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-07	237_001 Increased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become more and more prevalent. Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.61	Improving the sharpness in neural network-based parametric post-processing of ensemble forecasts	arxiv 2026-06-07	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.61	In-Context Learning for the Imputation of Public Opinion Data with Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Symbolic and Abstractive Reasoning with Complex Visual Queries	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Symbolic and Abstractive Reasoning with Complex Visual Queries	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Back on Track: Aligning Rewards and States for Reasoning in Diffusion Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	TimpaTeks: Automatic In-place Text Sequence Modification via Diffusion Language Model Steering	arxiv 2026-06-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Bridged SBI: Correcting Biased Low-Fidelity Posteriors for Cost-Efficient High-Fidelity Inference	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Dream-Tac: A Unified Tactile World Action Model for Contact-Rich Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	FDA ANDA219604: DALBAVANCIN HYDROCHLORIDE (DALBAVANCIN HYDROCHLORIDE) — BE PHARMS	fda 2026-06-04	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-22	INF_002 By 2027-2028, the US national-security apparatus will effectively appropriate frontier AI data centers — 'The Project' — to secure algorithmic weights and physical infrastructure against state-actor espionage. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Geopolitics	30%
0.61	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	How many secret Lairs will come out in 2027	manifold 2026-06-10	229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock	Robotics	37%
0.61	How many secret Lairs will come out in 2027	manifold 2026-06-10	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.61	How many secret Lairs will come out in 2027	manifold 2026-06-10	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.61	Will I get a hard conversation with my Math coach at beginning of next schoolyear?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-06-10	233_005 Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year. Dave Blundin	AI	51%
0.61	STORM: Stepwise Token Optimization with Reward-Guided Beam Search	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	From Data Heterogeneity to Convergence: A Data-Centric Review of Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.61	Detecting Speculative Language in Biomedical Texts using Recurrent Neural Tensor Networks	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	UPLOTS: A Unified Pretrained Language Model for Constrained Time-series Generation	arxiv 2026-06-09	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.61	UPLOTS: A Unified Pretrained Language Model for Constrained Time-series Generation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.61	FOGO: Forgetting-aware Orthogonalization Optimizer	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	PhysMetrics.Weather: An Evaluation Framework for Physical Consistency in ML Weather Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Dexterous Point Policy: Learning Point-based Dexterous Hand Policies from Human Demonstrations	arxiv 2026-06-09	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.61	A Comprehensive Inference-Time Augmentation Framework in Physiological Signals: Application to PPG-Based AF Detection	arxiv 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Validation-Stage Combinatorial Fusion Analysis for Imbalanced Credit-Card Fraud Detection	arxiv 2026-06-09	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.61	Spatiotemporal Seismic Hazard Assessment Using VQ-VAE and Seismic Statistical Features	arxiv 2026-06-08	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Recovering the Zipfian Distribution in Unsupervised Term Discovery	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Wave packets from the spectrum	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.61	Resonance and Differential Reduction of Feynman Integrals	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	FDA ANDA212990: LABETALOL HYDROCHLORIDE (LABETALOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — EPIC PHARMA LLC	fda 2026-06-08	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?(market prob: 92%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	How many more times will Trump publicly praise Allah in 2026?	manifold 2026-06-11	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.61	TAHOE: Text-to-SQL with Automated Hint Optimization from Experience	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_017 Prompt engineering evolves into a specialized commerce vector — marketplaces (PromptBase-style) emerge where skilled practitioners sell highly optimized, reliable text descriptions; proving AI displaces execution but rewards precise instructional logic... David Holz	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.61	Categorical Prior Lock-in: Why In-Context Learning Fails for Structured Data	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.61	Multi-View In-Cabin Monitoring System for Public Transport Vehicles	arxiv 2026-06-10	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.61	Efficient Multinomial Logistic Bandit via Frequent Directions	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.61	Last-Iterate Convergence of Optimistic Multiplicative Weight Update	arxiv 2026-06-10	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.61	Machine-learning clustering of close-in exoplanet populations: links to pebble accretion	arxiv 2026-06-10	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	SpAArSIST: Sparsified AASIST for Efficient and Reliable Anti-Spoofing	arxiv 2026-06-10	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.61	DeepRHP: A Hybrid Variational Autoencoder for Designing Random Heteropolymers as Protein Mimics	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.61	FlexiBrain: Resolution-Agnostic Voxel-Level Encoding for Native fMRI	arxiv 2026-06-09	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.61	Density estimation for Hellinger via minimum-distance estimators: mixtures of Gaussians, log-concave, and more	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Spatially Masked Regression Reveals Local and Distributed Predictability in Electrophysiological Recordings	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Detecting Sensitive Personal Information in Japanese Pre-Training Corpora for Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.61	SAGE: Answer-Conditioned Uncertainty Targets for Verbal Uncertainty Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-09	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.61	Explore From Sketch: Accelerating UAV Exploration in Large-scale Environments with Prior Maps	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Improving Human Diving Endurance with a Field-Deployable, Untethered Exoskeleton	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	A Modular Dual-Camera Pipeline for Micro-Inspection Using Aerial Robots	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Nonadditivity in Quantum Field Theory: Replica Energies, Scaling Filters, and the Renormalization Group	arxiv 2026-06-10	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.61	FDA NDA019193: PROVOCHOLINE (METHACHOLINE CHLORIDE) — METHAPHARM	fda 2026-06-06	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.20.0	github_release 2026-05-11	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.61	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_data_odac-0.1.0	github_release 2026-04-21	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.9.0	github_release 2025-10-09	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.61	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.7.0	github_release 2025-09-23	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.61	Will Maxx Crosby play for Indianapolis Colts next?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.61	Will ThunderTalk Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-20	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.61	United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?(market prob: 34%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Enovix Corp (ENVX) (CIK 0001828318)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Adaptive Turn-Taking for Real-time Multi-Party Voice Agents	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Multi-Field Hybrid Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Maritime Accident Root Cause Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-11	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Towards More General Control of Diffusion Models Using Jeffrey Guidance	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.61	NTS-CoT: Mitigating Hallucinations in LLM-based News Timeline Summarization with Chain-of-Thought Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.61	Emotional regulation improves deep learning-based image classification	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	OCOO-T : A Simple and Scalable Virtual Cell Model for Transcriptional Perturbation Response Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-11	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.61	Analyzing and Improving Fine-grained Preference Optimization in Medical LVLMs	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	NetCause: Counterfactual Learning for Root Cause Analysis in Large-Scale Networks	arxiv 2026-06-11	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.61	From Uncertain Judgments to Calibrated Rankings: Conformal Elo Estimation for LLM Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-11	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	WHAR Arena: Benchmarking the State of the Art in Efficient Wearable Human Activity Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-11	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.61	Selecting Samples on Graphs: A Unified Dataset Pruning Framework for Lossless Training Acceleration	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Let's Ask Gauss: Improved One-Run Privacy Auditing	arxiv 2026-06-10	231_049 If privacy is cooked, then crypto is cooked (private keys compromised). Alex Wissner-Gross	Crypto	40%
0.61	Edit the Bits, Diff the Codes: Bitwise Residual Editing for Visual Autoregressive Models	arxiv 2026-06-11	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	TimeLens: On-Device Artifact Recognition with Retrieval-Augmented Question Answering for the Grand Egyptian Museum	arxiv 2026-06-11	242_011 New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 years Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.61	PRISM: Prosody-Integrated Multi-Agent Reasoning Framework for Empathetic Spoken Dialogue	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	huggingface/transformers v5.12.0	github_release 2026-06-12	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.61	Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?(market prob: 34%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Spread: Argentina (-1.5)(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.61	FDA NDA022231: TERLIVAZ (TERLIPRESSIN ACETATE) — MALLINCKRODT IRELAND	fda 2026-06-10	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	facebookresearch/fairseq v0.6.2	github_release 2019-03-15	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.61	facebookresearch/fairseq v0.6.2	github_release 2019-03-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Who will win the 2026 FIDE World Team Blitz Chess Championship?	manifold 2026-06-14	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve be 500M barrels of oil or more at the end of 2027?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-06-13	INF_014 Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. Morgan Stanley	Energy	42%
0.61	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 43%)	manifold 2026-06-15	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.7.1	github_release 2022-10-23	CMQ_030 In the modern AI pipeline, the CPU no longer merely supports the model — it drives the model (agentic workloads invert historical CPU:GPU ratio). Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	34%
0.61	Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Spread: Argentina (-2.5)(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	RAID: Semantic Graph Diffusion for True Cold-Start and Cross-Lingual Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	P3B3: A Multi-Turn Conversational Benchmark for Measuring European and Brazilian Portuguese Variety Bias in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-15	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.61	Dual-Granularity Orthogonal Disentanglement for Generalizable Audio Deepfake Detection	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	SPRI: SVD-Partitioned Residual Initialization for Data-Constrained MoE Upcycling	arxiv 2026-06-15	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Tool-IQA: Augmenting Image Quality Assessment with Simple Tools	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Deep Residual Injection for Full-Spectrum Forensic Signal Perception in Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	To forget is to preserve: Machine Unlearning for 3D medical image segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Data-driven Control with Real-time Uncertainty Compensation for Multi-Fuel Engines	arxiv 2026-06-15	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	Enhancing Quantum Machine Learning with Anyons	arxiv 2026-06-15	232_050 Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.61	Stop the Sampler! Classifier-Based Adaptive Stopping for Sampling Kernels	arxiv 2026-06-15	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.61	Data-Driven Decoding of Russell's Circumplex Model of Affect	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Multi-Turn Reflective Masking Elicits Reasoning in Mask Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.61	SCAR: Semantic Continuity-Aware Retrieval for Efficient Context Expansion in RAG	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.61	Weaving Multi-Source Evidence for Biomedical Reasoning: The BioMedHop Benchmark and BioWeave Framework	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Focus When Necessary: Adaptive Routing and Collaborative Grounding for Training-Free Visual Grounding	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	In-Domain Supervised Pathology Report Classification: A Reproducible Pipeline from Data Curation to Production-Matched Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	DYNA : Dynamic Episodic Memory Networks for Augmenting Large Language Models with Temporal Knowledge Graphs in Continuous Learning	arxiv 2026-06-14	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	MosaicQuant: Inlier-Outlier Disaggregation for Unified 4-Bit LLM Quantization	arxiv 2026-06-14	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	FDA NDA206321: SAXENDA (LIRAGLUTIDE) — NOVO	fda 2026-06-02	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?(market prob: 20%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will my color-based web game exceed 100 users in a single day?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-06-17	240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang	Markets/Stocks	78%
0.61	Will Sabine Hossenfelder mention any prediction markets on string theory or BSM physics before the end of 2027?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-06-16	CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	92%
0.61	pltr up in 1 month(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.61	C2FL: Clustered Continual Federated Learning under Spatial and Temporal Drift	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.61	Multiple cyclicity and Wavelet Decomposition with Channel Correlation for Long-term Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-16	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.61	Recover Semantics First, Generate Better: Improved Latent Modeling for 3D MRI Reconstruction and Cross-Contrast Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	PearlVLA: Progressive Embodied Action-Plan Refinement in Latent Space	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	WallZero: Mastering the Game of WallGo with Strategic Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	TuneAhead: Predicting Fine-tuning Performance Before Full Training Begins	arxiv 2026-06-16	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	SketchXplain: Intuitive Visual Explanations of Image Classifiers with Sketches	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	DriveJudge: Rethinking Autonomous Driving Evaluation with Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	INI-VPINN: A Variational Physics-Informed Neural Network with Implicit Neumann and Interface Handling for Multi-Material Domains with Geometric Singularities	arxiv 2026-06-16	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	Differential Privacy of Gaussian Process Posterior Sampling	arxiv 2026-06-16	231_021 Privacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and micro drones gathering data. Peter Diamandis	Consumer	59%
0.61	Public transit gains and spatially uneven travel demand changes after NYC congestion pricing	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.61	GeneralVLA-2: Geometry-Aware Reconstruction and Governed Memory for Robot Planning	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.61	Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5)(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will Cameron Young win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	The Reward Was in Your Data All Along: Correcting Flow Matching with Discriminator-Guided RL	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.61	RouteJudge: An Open Platform for Reproducible and Preference-Aware LLM Routing	arxiv 2026-06-17	INF_026 'Software 3.0' LLM infrastructure will operate like public utilities — requiring massive upfront capex (training compute, specialized hardware), specialized networking protocols for synchrony across hundreds of thousands of GPUs, and flawless uninterru... Andrej Karpathy	AI	70%
0.61	Fair Online Resource Allocation	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_044 Future data-center architectures optimized for agentic workflows may require 1:2 or even 2:1 CPU-to-GPU ratio (vs historical 1:12) to prevent GPU idle-waiting. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	65%
0.61	Toward Simultaneously Optimal Regret in U-Calibration	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Signature filtering: a lightweight enhancement for statistical watermark detection in large language models	arxiv 2026-06-16	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.61	PragReST: Self-Reinforcing Counterfactual Reasoning for Pragmatic Language Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Montreal Forced Aligner and the state of speech-to-text alignment in 2026	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Montreal Forced Aligner and the state of speech-to-text alignment in 2026	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Shape Sensing of Continuum Robots using Direct Laser Writing	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	TactSpace: Learning a Physics-enriched Shared Latent Space for Tactile Sim-to-Real Transfer	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	A High-accuracy Event-based Underwater SLAM System	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Tunable Chaos in the Finite Mean SYK Model	arxiv 2026-06-16	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	pytorch/pytorch v2.12.1	github_release 2026-06-18	240_003 NVIDIA will lock up 70%+ of TSMC's 3nm node volume Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	Brazil leading at halftime?(market prob: 70%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Ivan Perišić be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.61	Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5(market prob: 75%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027?(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.61	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will a sample from the Martian system be returned to Earth by an Asian space agency before a Western space agency?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-06-19	242_039 NASA will imminently find >90% probability evidence of microbial life on Mars Jared Isaacman (NASA administrator)	Space	46%
0.61	Will a sample from the Martian system be returned to Earth by an Asian space agency before a Western space agency?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-06-19	COD_SPC_001 Artemis III flies as an Earth-orbit HLS/EVA suit test mission in 2027, not a lunar landing Codex Research Pack	Space	44%
0.61	Will a sample from the Martian system be returned to Earth by an Asian space agency before a Western space agency?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-06-19	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Do you like 62% odds?(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-06-18	247_013 99% of randomly selected white collar jobs could be replaced by AI today Peter Dannenberg	Labor/Jobs	22%
0.61	Confidence Calibration for Multimodal LLMs: An Empirical Study through Medical VQA	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	Improving End-to-End Speech Recognition for Dysarthric Speech through In-Domain Data Augmentation	arxiv 2026-06-18	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.61	A Comparative Study of Pretrained Transformer Models for Quranic ASR: Speech Representations, Label Formats, and Dataset Composition	arxiv 2026-06-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	OnDeFog: Online Decision Transformer under Frame Dropping	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	PrefSQA: Pairwise Preference Prediction for Speech Quality Assessment and the Critical Role of High Quality Datasets	arxiv 2026-06-17	232_011 Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.61	Stochastic Linear Contextual Bandits with Bounded Noise: A Set-Membership Approach	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Global Convergence of Gradient Descent for Score Matching in Gaussian Mixtures via Reverse Fisher Divergence	arxiv 2026-06-18	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.61	Federated Bilevel Performative Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	SEAGAN: domain-Specific and Edge-Aware Graph Attention Network for Dynamic Plant Processes	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	On the QUEST for Uncertainty Quantification via Highest Density Regions	arxiv 2026-06-17	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Advances in Scientific Machine Learning for Coupled Fluid Flow and Transport	arxiv 2026-06-17	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Spectral Retrieval-Augmented Time-Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-17	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	Light-weight Pronunciation Assessment via Discrete Speech Token Surprisal	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	Mobile Target Search with Imperfect Perception: A Partially Observable Stochastic Game Theoretical Approach	arxiv 2026-06-18	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	A High-accuracy Event-based Underwater SLAM System	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Operational Tube-Sector Theory of Quantum State Distinguishability Under Generalized Symmetries	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.61	Deriving effective descriptions and signal predictions for dynamical gravitational systems	arxiv 2026-06-17	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.61	Deriving effective descriptions and signal predictions for dynamical gravitational systems	arxiv 2026-06-17	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	FDA ANDA074521: DIPYRIDAMOLE (DIPYRIDAMOLE) — HIKMA	fda 2026-06-04	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2025-11-11	SEM_016 Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chain resilience. David Friedberg	Semis/Geopolitics	24%
0.61	Starmer out by June 26, 2026?(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	When will Waymo or an equivalent be generally available in chicago.	manifold 2026-06-20	243_028 Joby eVTOL service hopefully coming to US sometime next year (2027) Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	41%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.60	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.60	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-10	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.60	Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	235_017 OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	48%
0.60	Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-03-26	247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-31	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 82%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	IND_021 February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... Jack Dorsey	Labor/Jobs	74%
0.60	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-03	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	231_002 Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.60	Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	35%
0.60	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-30	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.60	Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.60	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-03	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-03	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.60	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-16	FUT_002 Mean expert estimate for AGI collapsed from 50-year horizon to ~5 years over a 4-year window leading to mid-2020s — placing expected AGI arrival firmly in 2029-2031 window per Metaculus + 80000 Hours aggregate tracking; quantitative forecasters now ali... Superforecaster Community	AI	40%
0.60	What percentage uptime will the Unofficial GitHub Status Page show for the last 90 Days on May 31st, 2026?	manifold 2026-04-29	234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.60	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-04-28	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Will US average gas price reach $4.300 in May 2026?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-04-27	244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.60	Correspondents Association dinner incident prop bets	manifold 2026-04-26	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.60	If there is an EAGxNordics 2027, where will it take place in?	manifold 2026-04-25	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Intel stock trade above $90 in May, 2026?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-04-23	248_047 Memory companies' stock prices will continue increasing despite algorithmic efficiency gains. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	39%
0.60	Shymkent 2: Sergey Fomin vs Max Hans Rehberg(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60		gdelt 2026-04-30	236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	53%
0.60	article 48a69cbd aa05 5138 b47a b170ddd93981.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_008 Rapid agentic automation of white-collar work could precipitate an employment crisis requiring entirely new tax structures to manage displacement. Dario Amodei	Labor/Jobs	41%
0.60		gdelt 2026-04-30	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	view?ud=2026042915480706790	gdelt 2026-04-30	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.60	usa wyniki gigantow big tech pobily oczekiwania lecz wzbudzily niepokoje o skale wydatkow na ai,1057510.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	231_030 US AI industry needs 80 gigawatts of power in the next 3-5 years (Eric Schmidt cited). Eric Schmidt	Energy	49%
0.60	pharvaris investors directors sale matters 004201595.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.60	used spacex rocket could crash into the moons einstein crater this summer report predicts	gdelt 2026-04-30	241_060 Data centers will be built in space / rockets will carry data centers Peter Diamandis	Space	54%
0.60	elon musk accuses google co 215505716.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	242_003 Musk ecosystem could become first $100 trillion company Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	40%
0.60		gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.60		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.60	solaris energy infrastructure inc q1 123000690.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.60		gdelt 2026-04-30	INF_033 Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regulation: Meta committed $65M to super PACs ('Forge the Future Project', 'Making Our Tomorrow'); a16z backed the $50M 'Leading the Future' PAC — combined $1... Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)	Geopolitics	62%
0.60	were raising our price target on amazon by 50 after killer quarter.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	241_021 America can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildout Eric Schmidt	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.60	Trump out as President before 2027?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2025-11-05	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.60	Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2025-07-22	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.60	Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	243_001 Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.60	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn	Consumer	77%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.60	Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.60	Will Android 17 be officially released to consumers by October 31, 2026?(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-05-01	234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.60	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-01	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 205.5(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.60	Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.60	Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.60	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-03	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.60	Will a Manifolder win the Summer Metaculus Cup(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-04	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will WA SWIS 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$135/MWh?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-05-04	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.60	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket](market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-05-04	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-05-04	CMQ_018 By 2027-2028, the strategic value of superintelligence + impossible trillion-dollar infrastructure cost will trigger government consolidation of AGI development — 'The Project'. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Geopolitics	35%
0.60	Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-04	CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley	Macro/Economy	67%
0.60	Will Alcoa Corporation's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_014 Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. Morgan Stanley	Energy	42%
0.60	Will GameStop buy / aquire eBay until end of 2026?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-05-04	243_028 Joby eVTOL service hopefully coming to US sometime next year (2027) Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	41%
0.60	Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.60	Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 214.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Claude Opus 4.7 METR 50% time horizon	manifold 2026-05-05	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.60	Limitless Markets US approved as a DCM by the CFTC in 2026?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-05-05	237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn	Crypto	43%
0.60	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-05	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	2027 World Snooker Championship winner	manifold 2026-05-04	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-05-04	AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	37%
0.60	Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	48%
0.60	RTX Corp (RTX) (CIK 0000101829)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.60	FDA ANDA217265: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — QILU	fda 2026-04-27	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.60	FDA ANDA211312: DAPAGLIFLOZIN (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — SANDOZ	fda 2026-04-06	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	FDA ANDA078244: ONDANSETRON HYDROCHLORIDE PRESERVATIVE FREE (ONDANSETRON HYDROCHLORIDE) — ONESOURCE SPECIALTY	fda 2026-04-15	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	FDA BLA761235: VABYSMO (FARICIMAB-SVOA) — GENENTECH INC	fda 2026-04-09	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.60	FDA ANDA078582: LEVETIRACETAM (LEVETIRACETAM) — STRIDES PHARMA	fda 2026-04-21	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.60	FDA ANDA090517: VALPROIC ACID (VALPROIC ACID) — QUAGEN	fda 2026-04-17	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	openai/openai-python v2.7.1	github_release 2025-11-04	230_046 OpenAI's Noam Brown has only ~3 months of future model access internally — dramatic capability gap with public. Dave Blundin	AI	43%
0.60	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.2.1	github_release 2022-06-13	232_012 US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. Ben Horowitz	Geopolitics	44%
0.60	huggingface/transformers v5.5.3	github_release 2026-04-09	248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail	Robotics	34%
0.60	huggingface/transformers v4.56.2	github_release 2025-09-17	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.60	huggingface/transformers v4.56.0-Embedding-Gemma-preview	github_release 2025-09-04	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.60	meta-llama/llama-api-typescript v0.2.0	github_release 2025-08-27	237_019 Code generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript instead of Rust for memory safety. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.21.0-rc1	github_release 2026-03-02	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.60	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.20.0	github_release 2025-08-13	CMQ_030 In the modern AI pipeline, the CPU no longer merely supports the model — it drives the model (agentic workloads invert historical CPU:GPU ratio). Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	34%
0.60	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.20.0	github_release 2025-08-13	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.60	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.19.0	github_release 2025-03-12	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.15.0	github_release 2023-11-14	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.60	pytorch/pytorch v2.2.0	github_release 2024-01-30	240_016 Everyone is underestimating the next year of AI improvements (more than 2x gain) Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.60	Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-05	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Canadiens vs. Sabres(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Will "[Linkpost] Interpreting Language Model Parameters" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-06	238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.60	MANIFOLD TURING TEST: Can commenters distinguish snigus's vs CalibratedGhosts's replies ≥75%?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-05	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.60	Detecting Stealth Sycophancy in Mental-Health Dialogue with Dynamic Emotional Signature Graphs	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Compress Then Adapt? No, Do It Together via Task-aware Union of Subspaces	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	SCPRM: A Schema-aware Cumulative Process Reward Model for Knowledge Graph Question Answering	arxiv 2026-05-04	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.60	Fine-Grained Graph Generation through Latent Mixture Scheduling	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Virtual Scanning for NSCLC Histology: Investigating the Discriminatory Power of Synthetic PET	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	On Computing Total Variation Distance Between Mixtures of Product Distributions	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.60	Vanishing L2 regularization for the softmax Multi Armed Bandit	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Predicting missing values: A good idea?	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.60	SURE-RAG: Sufficiency and Uncertainty-Aware Evidence Verification for Selective Retrieval-Augmented Generation	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.60	GRIFDIR: Graph Resolution-Invariant FEM Diffusion Models in Function Spaces over Irregular Domains	arxiv 2026-05-05	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.60	Bandits attack function optimization	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.60	FIBER: A Differentially Private Optimizer with Filter-Aware Innovation Bias Correction	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_014 Most profound impacts of autonomous AI originate NOT from closed proprietary models within multi-billion-dollar corporate data centers, but from globally distributed open-source models — open-weight parity with frontier systems enables any individual o... Emad Mostaque	AI	53%
0.60	Donor-Aware scRNA-seq Benchmarks for IBD Classification	arxiv 2026-05-05	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.60	Attribution-Guided Masking for Robust Cross-Domain Sentiment Classification	arxiv 2026-05-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Learning to Segment using Summary Statistics and Weak Supervision	arxiv 2026-05-04	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.60	Pretraining on Sleep Data Improves non-Sleep Biosignal Tasks	arxiv 2026-05-04	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.60	Effective Performance Measurement: Challenges and Opportunities in KPI Extraction from Earnings Calls	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Semantically Enriching Investor Micro-blogs for Opinion-Aware Emotion Analysis: A Practical Approach	arxiv 2026-05-04	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.60	Leveraging Argument Structure to Predict Content Hatefulness	arxiv 2026-05-04	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.60	EditPropBench: Measuring Factual Edit Propagation in Scientific Manuscripts	arxiv 2026-05-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Task-Aware Scanning Parameter Configuration for Robotic Inspection Using Vision Language Embeddings and Hyperdimensional Computing	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.60	Robust Visual SLAM for UAV Navigation in GPS-Denied and Degraded Environments: A Multi-Paradigm Evaluation and Deployment Study	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.60	DynoSLAM: Dynamic SLAM with Generative Graph Neural Networks for Real-World Social Navigation	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Higher-Order Flexible Configurations of Planar Parallel Manipulators Constructed by Averaging	arxiv 2026-05-04	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.60	ShapeGrasp: Simultaneous Visuo-Haptic Shape Completion and Grasping for Improved Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Modular flow of Celestial Conformal Field Theory	arxiv 2026-05-05	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.60	FDA NDA020944: CHILDREN'S ADVIL (IBUPROFEN) — HALEON US HOLDINGS	fda 2026-05-01	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.60	FDA NDA211243: SPRAVATO (ESKETAMINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — JANSSEN PHARMS	fda 2026-04-13	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.60	Will I attend Manifest 2026?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-05-07	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.60	The First Token Knows: Single-Decode Confidence for Hallucination Detection	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Gyan: An Explainable Neuro-Symbolic Language Model	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Sparse Tokens Suffice: Jailbreaking Audio Language Models via Token-Aware Gradient Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.60	Benchmarking POS Tagging for the Tajik Language: A Comparative Study of Neural Architectures on the TajPersParallel Corpus	arxiv 2026-05-06	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.60	Telegraph English: Semantic Prompt Compression via Structured Symbolic Rewriting	arxiv 2026-05-06	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	FDA ANDA219473: CENOBAMATE (CENOBAMATE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LIMITED	fda 2026-04-28	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.2.3	github_release 2022-12-08	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.60	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.1.1	github_release 2019-04-05	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.60	facebookresearch/faiss v1.13.1	github_release 2025-12-03	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	facebookresearch/faiss v1.13.1	github_release 2025-12-03	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	facebookresearch/balance 0.15.0	github_release 2026-01-20	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.60	O/U 2.5 Rounds(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-04-18	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.60	Will Apple stop selling the $599 MacBook Neo SKU before the end of 2026?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-08	237_004 Mac Mini sales will continue their exponential growth driven by local AI demand. Peter Diamandis	Consumer	55%
0.60	Who will become president first?	manifold 2026-05-07	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.60	Patch-Effect Graph Kernels for LLM Interpretability	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Continuous-Time Distribution Matching for Few-Step Diffusion Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Mind the Gap? A Distributional Comparison of Real and Synthetic Priors for Tabular Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Soft Deterministic Policy Gradient with Gaussian Smoothing	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	In-Context Black-Box Optimization with Unreliable Feedback	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Continuous Expert Assembly: Instance-Conditioned Low-Rank Residuals for All-in-One Image Restoration	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Optimal Transport for LLM Reward Modeling from Noisy Preference	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Adding Thermal Awareness to Visual Systems in Real-Time via Distilled Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	iPhoneBlur: A Difficulty-Stratified Benchmark for Consumer Device Motion Deblurring	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Temporal Smoothness Doubly Robust Learning for Debiased Knowledge Tracing	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.60	Edge-specific signal propagation on mature chromophore-region 3D mechanism graphs for fluorescent protein quantum-yield prediction	arxiv 2026-05-07	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.60	SoftSAE: Dynamic Top-K Selection for Adaptive Sparse Autoencoders	arxiv 2026-05-07	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	How Many Iterations to Jailbreak? Dynamic Budget Allocation for Multi-Turn LLM Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Weight-Decay Turns Transformer Loss Landscapes Villani: Functional-Analytic Foundations for Optimization and Generalization	arxiv 2026-05-07	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.60	Diffusion-Based Posterior Sampling: A Feynman-Kac Analysis of Bias and Stability	arxiv 2026-05-07	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.60	Diffusion-Based Posterior Sampling: A Feynman-Kac Analysis of Bias and Stability	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.60	Hyperbolic Concept Bottleneck Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Eliciting associations between clinical variables from LLMs via comparison questions across populations	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Molecules Meet Language: Confound-Aware Representation Learning and Chemical Property Steering in Transformer-VAE Latent Spaces	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	INEUS: Iterative Neural Solver for High-Dimensional PIDEs	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Sharper Guarantees for Misspecified Kernelized Bandit Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.60	Cited but Not Verified: Parsing and Evaluating Source Attribution in LLM Deep Research Agents	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.60	When2Speak: A Dataset for Temporal Participation and Turn-Taking in Multi-Party Conversations for Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.60	SLAM: Structural Linguistic Activation Marking for Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-06	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.60	SLAM: Structural Linguistic Activation Marking for Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	TouchDrive: Electronics-Free Tactile Sensing Interface for Assistive Grasping	arxiv 2026-05-07	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.60	Passive Fault Tolerance through Tension-to-Thrust Feed-Forward: Hybrid Input-to-State Stability for Decentralized Multi-UAV Slung-Load Transport under Abrupt Cable Severance	arxiv 2026-05-06	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.60	Exponential Quintessence: Analytic Relationship Between the Current Equation of State Parameter and the Potential Parameter	arxiv 2026-05-06	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%