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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.59	FDA NDA217379: CAVHANZA (NILOTINIB) — FLEX PHARMA	fda 2026-05-29	248_030 FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.59	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-01-13	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.59	Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	84%
0.59	Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.59	Which country will win the 2026 Chess Olympiad (Women's event)?	manifold 2026-06-04	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Russia gain more territory than it loses in June 2026?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-06-04	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.59	Atkore Inc. (ATKR) (CIK 0001666138)	edgar_8k 2026-06-04	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.59	huggingface/transformers v5.10.2	github_release 2026-06-04	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.59	Will Haiti win on 2026-06-05?(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will the Jones Act be in effect for more than half of 2027?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-06-05	236_023 AI will replace white-collar jobs: 20-50% of 70M US office workers in 12-18 months Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.59	Will July 2026 in Boston be one of the 5 warmest July's ever?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-06-05	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	LatentWave: JEPA Pretraining for Wireless Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.59	Learning What to Forget: Improving LLM Unlearning via Learned Token-Level Importance	arxiv 2026-06-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Learning What to Forget: Improving LLM Unlearning via Learned Token-Level Importance	arxiv 2026-06-04	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Plug-and-Play Guidance for Discrete Diffusion Models via Gradient-Informed Logit Correction	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.59	Your GFlowNet Secretly Learns an Optimal Transport Plan	arxiv 2026-06-04	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.59	Deep Learning-based 3D Oral Cavity Reconstruction Using 2D Intraoral Images	arxiv 2026-06-04	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.59	Reducing Hallucinations in Complex Question Answering using Simple Graph-based Retrieval-Augmented Generation (long version)	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	Mechanistic Insights into Functional Sparsity in Multimodal LLMs via CoRe Heads	arxiv 2026-06-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	InfoShield: Privacy-Preserving Speech Representations for Mental Health Screening via Information-Theoretic Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	TailLoR: Protecting Principal Components in Parameter-Efficient Continual Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	EML-CD: Causal Mechanism Recovery via EML Symbolic Trees in Structure Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.59	Causal Longitudinal Prior-Fitted Networks for Counterfactual Outcome Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Q-GNN: Query-Conditioned Graph Neural Networks with Type Awareness for Knowledge Graph Completion	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	PJ-RoPE: A Fourier-Jet-Affine Position Space for Relative Attention	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.59	PJ-RoPE: A Fourier-Jet-Affine Position Space for Relative Attention	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	An Open-Source Two-Stage Computer Vision Pipeline for Fine-Grained Vehicle Classification using Vision Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Revisiting Lexicon Evaluation in Unsupervised Word Discovery	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	MemoryCard: Topic-Aware Multi-Modal Clue Compression for Long-Video Question Answering	arxiv 2026-06-04	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.59	Interpreting Style Representations via Style-Eliciting Prompts	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	In-Context Graphical Inference	arxiv 2026-06-03	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	SemBlock: Semantic Boundary Dynamic Blocks for Diffusion LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.59	SoftPINCH: EMG-Driven Soft Exoskeleton Assistance for Finger Flexion and Grasping	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_050 Physical embodied AI represents the 'Fourth Wave' of AI development — projected to scale rapidly and commercially between 2025-2030. Industry analysts (synthesis)	Robotics	41%
0.59	Diffusion of multiple conserved charges from entropy production	arxiv 2026-06-04	241_024 Heat dissipation and radiation issues in space data centers will be addressed Eric Schmidt	Space	54%
0.59	Understanding deconfined quantum critical points from crystalline categorical Landau paradigm	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.59	Emergent Closed Universes in Symmetric Orbifold CFTs	arxiv 2026-06-03	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	FDA BLA761309: COLUMVI (GLOFITAMAB-GXBM) — GENENTECH INC	fda 2026-05-28	IND_012 NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a decade — Evo 2 achieves 90% accuracy in BRCA1 predictions; AI models will seamlessly transition generated biological designs into practical, synthesized clinical... Jensen Huang	Biotech/Longevity	68%
0.59	Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #4 Group D(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.59	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?(market prob: 58%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk	AI	44%
0.59	Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	FIFA World Cup (2026) Team Goals	manifold 2026-06-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	What will be the sum of my AP scores releasing this July?	manifold 2026-06-06	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.59	30 year interest rates greater than 7.5% by EOY 2028(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-06-07	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.59	Acoustic Cue Alignment in Audio Language Models for Speech Emotion Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	dots.tts Technical Report	arxiv 2026-06-05	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.59	Never Seen Before: Benchmarking Genuine Zero-Shot Composed Image Retrieval with Consistent Video-Sourced Datasets	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Video-Based Prediction of In-Flight Particle Characteristics in Atmospheric Plasma Spraying	arxiv 2026-06-05	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.59	Structure-Preserving Correction Learning for Sparse Bayesian Inference in Brain Source Imaging	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	Compliance-Based Sensor Placement for Force Sensing on a Sensorized Prostate Phantom	arxiv 2026-06-05	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	facebookresearch/maskrcnn-benchmark v0.1	github_release 2019-09-10	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.59	Will Nicolai Højgaard win the 2026 TOUR Championship?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	What will appear in the June 9, 2026 Nintendo Direct?	manifold 2026-06-08	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.59	FDA NDA021529: IMPLANON (ETONOGESTREL) — ORGANON	fda 2026-05-28	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.59	Bayesian Selective Latent Inference for Wastewater-First Influenza Monitoring	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.59	A Universal Dense Football Event Representation Based on TabTransformer	arxiv 2026-06-08	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	TLDR: Compressing Audio Tokens for Efficient Autoregressive Text-to-Speech	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_003 AI-native companies are currently compressing what traditionally took a decade to reach $100 million in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) into just 12-24 months — an unprecedented monetization velocity. Dario Amodei	Macro/Economy	52%
0.59	PolyBuild: An End-to-End Method for Polygonal Building Contour Extraction from High-Resolution Remote Sensing Images	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	Efficient Traffic Prediction at Scale: A Systematic Study of STGCN Architectural Depth	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Zero-Shot Semantic Re-Identification for Autonomous Driving: A VLM Baseline Study	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.59	Neural Legendre-Fenchel transform with Hessian Preconditioning	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Data augmented bootstrap: Unifying confidence interval construction by approximate invariance	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.59	Estimate Collapsibility of Causal Effects in Completed Partial DAGs via Strong d-Convex Hulls	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	Continuous Language Diffusion as a Decoder-Interface Problem	arxiv 2026-06-07	INF_043 Unit cost of intelligence will drop at a rate far exceeding Moore's Law, driving explosive demand growth that filters out to edge devices and localized small models. Marc Andreessen	AI	47%
0.59	Multilingual Sentiment Aware Text Summarization A Reinforcement Learning Approach for Consistency Maintenance	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	The Amplifying Mirror: Locating and Steering the Partisan Direction inside a Large Language Model	arxiv 2026-06-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	ClinicalAligner26AM: A Cross-Lingual Aligner for Dataset Translation; Evidences from the MultiClinCorpus Shared Task	arxiv 2026-06-07	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	Segment-level Tree Search for Long Meeting Document Summarization	arxiv 2026-06-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	VGP-Nav: Metric-Aware Visual Geometric Perception for Robot Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-08	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.59	Asymptotic Algebras and Holography of Information in CGHS Model	arxiv 2026-06-08	230_033 Intelligence explosion shockwave propagates from math → physical sciences → planetary systems, Dyson swarm by early 2030s. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.59	Energy Transport in Randomly Coupled Quantum Systems: A Perturbative Approach	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.59	An elliptic approach to Reid's fantasy	arxiv 2026-06-07	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.59	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.59	Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will silver hit $60/oz by close on Friday?(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-06-10	AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	37%
0.59	Will I resolve this as yes or no?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-10	232_058 Solving physics may reveal 'doors behind doors' of new opportunities. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.59	Optimizing 2D Input Representations and Sub-phase Fusion Strategies for Differential Diagnosis of Asthma and COPD Using CNN- and GRU-Based Networks	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.59	Optimizing 2D Input Representations and Sub-phase Fusion Strategies for Differential Diagnosis of Asthma and COPD Using CNN- and GRU-Based Networks	arxiv 2026-06-09	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.59	Improving Text-Instance Alignment Of Foreground Conditioned Out-Painting Via Customized Concept Embedding	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_017 Prompt engineering evolves into a specialized commerce vector — marketplaces (PromptBase-style) emerge where skilled practitioners sell highly optimized, reliable text descriptions; proving AI displaces execution but rewards precise instructional logic... David Holz	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.59	Using the YOLOv12 Model for Verifying the Correct Color Sequence of Wires in Network Cables (Patch Cords) on the Production Line	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.59	ERAlign: Energy-based Representation Alignment of GNNs and LLMs on Text-attributed Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-09	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	Content-Induced Spatial-Spectral Aggregation Network for Change Detection in Remote Sensing Images	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Multi-Level Analyzation of Imbalance to Resolve Non-IID-Ness in Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_014 Most profound impacts of autonomous AI originate NOT from closed proprietary models within multi-billion-dollar corporate data centers, but from globally distributed open-source models — open-weight parity with frontier systems enables any individual o... Emad Mostaque	AI	53%
0.59	Integral Field Unit Spectroscopy with One Fiber	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Robust Regression of General ReLUs with Queries	arxiv 2026-06-09	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.59	DMT: Demographic Conditioning, Morphology-Enhanced Transformer for Cuffless Blood Pressure Estimation from PPG Signals	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_027 Integration of AI with advanced bio-sensing, quantum computing, and genomics enables humanity to achieve 'Longevity Escape Velocity' — tipping point where medical technology extends human lifespan faster than time passes; continuous biological surveill... Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	21%
0.59	Generative Archetype-Grounded Item Representations for Sequential Recommendation	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.59	Data-Driven Runway and Taxiway Exits Prediction of Landing Aircraft: A Case Study at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport	arxiv 2026-06-09	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.59	Learning Doubly Sparse Explicitly Conditioned Transforms	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Express Language Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Express Language Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.59	Accelerating SAV-based optimization via randomized low-rank Hessian approximation	arxiv 2026-06-09	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.59	Privacy-Preserving Credit Risk Prediction with Alternative Data	arxiv 2026-06-09	247_053 AI's largest risk to Bitcoin is irrelevance via AI agents not using it Alex Wissner-Gross	Crypto	38%
0.59	Trace Only What You Need: Structure-Aware On-Demand Hypergraph Memory for Long-Document Question Answering	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	ConvMemory v2: A Recall-Preserving Top-10 Evidence Reranker for Conversational Memory Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.59	Small Data, Big Noise: Adversarial Training for Robust Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-09	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.59	Compiling Rewrite Rules to Finite-State Transducers with the Worsening Trick	arxiv 2026-06-08	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	The Scattering Algebra of Physical Space: Wigner-Covariance and Fields	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Bootstrap Cone of the Multicritical Deconfined Quantum Critical Point	arxiv 2026-06-08	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	FDA ANDA211187: MACITENTAN (MACITENTAN) — TEVA PHARMS USA INC	fda 2026-06-08	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA ANDA200296: RISEDRONATE SODIUM (RISEDRONATE SODIUM) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-06-08	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.59	FDA ANDA219530: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — MACLEODS PHARMS LTD	fda 2026-06-03	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.59	FDA ANDA212990: LABETALOL HYDROCHLORIDE (LABETALOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — EPIC PHARMA LLC	fda 2026-06-08	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	FUT_002 Mean expert estimate for AGI collapsed from 50-year horizon to ~5 years over a 4-year window leading to mid-2020s — placing expected AGI arrival firmly in 2029-2031 window per Metaculus + 80000 Hours aggregate tracking; quantitative forecasters now ali... Superforecaster Community	AI	40%
0.59	Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	CATERPILLAR INC (CAT) (CIK 0000018230)	edgar_8k 2026-06-11	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	61%
0.59	AMAZON COM INC (AMZN) (CIK 0001018724)	edgar_8k 2026-06-10	230_051 Amazon/hyperscalers will continue pouring free cash flow into AI data centers, robots and LEO satellites (opex cannibalized by capex). Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.59	Latent World Recovery for Multimodal Learning with Missing Modalities	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Multimodal Ordinal Modeling of Alzheimer's Disease Severity Using Structural MRI and Clinical Data	arxiv 2026-06-10	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.59	From Prompts to Tokens: Internalizing Causal Supervision in Vision-Language Model for Multi-Image Causal Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	ICA Lens: Interpreting Language Models Without Training Another Dictionary	arxiv 2026-06-10	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.59	Ouroboros-Spatial: Closing the Data-Model Loop for Spatial Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.59	Lung-R1: A Knowledge Graph-Guided LLM for Pulmonary Diagnostic Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-10	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	DeMix: Debugging Training Data with Mixed Data Error Types by Investigating Influence Vectors	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.59	Probabilistic Contrastive Pretraining for Multi-task ADME Property Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-09	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.59	OmniLoc: A Geometry-Aware Foundation Model for Anchor-Free UE Localization Across Diverse Indoor Environments	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	The Long Tail, Not the Front Page: Cold-Start Prediction of Crowd Highlight Salience	arxiv 2026-06-10	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.59	Point Cloud Segmentation for Autonomous Clip Positioning in Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy on a Phantom	arxiv 2026-06-10	229_008 By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). Brett Adcock	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.59	The Fundaments of Unity: ${\mathcal O}(1)$ Couplings in Quantum Field Theories	arxiv 2026-06-10	246_034 Thousands of Medev-like one-person unicorns will be created, following power law. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Non-self-dual nontopological soliton in a pure Chern-Simons gauge model	arxiv 2026-06-10	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.59	Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.59	Will ThunderTalk Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-20	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will Sudarshan Yellamaraju win the 2026 TOUR Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-05-22	243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	43%
0.59	What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-06-12	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Free Mana Part 4:All Answers resolves to NO (You can add answers in numerical form)	manifold 2026-06-12	230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.59	Will "PSA: Almost nobody is working on alignment" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-12	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.59	GENERAC HOLDINGS INC. (GNRC) (CIK 0001474735)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.59	AMAZON COM INC (AMZN) (CIK 0001018724)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	230_051 Amazon/hyperscalers will continue pouring free cash flow into AI data centers, robots and LEO satellites (opex cannibalized by capex). Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.59	Learning to Reason by Analogy via Retrieval-Augmented Reinforcement Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-11	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.59	Transformer-Guided Graph Attention for Direct Cardiac Mesh Reconstruction: A Structural Digital Twin Framework	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.59	Emotional regulation improves deep learning-based image classification	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.59	AAbAAC: An Annotated Corpus for Autoimmunity Information Extraction	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_006 Expert-level AI applied to biology/medicine will yield cures for cancer and Alzheimer's within 5-10 years, compressing a century of progress into a decade. Dario Amodei	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	OCOO-T : A Simple and Scalable Virtual Cell Model for Transcriptional Perturbation Response Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-11	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.59	Analyzing and Improving Fine-grained Preference Optimization in Medical LVLMs	arxiv 2026-06-10	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.59	EDEN: A Large-Scale Corpus of Clinical Notes for Italian	arxiv 2026-06-10	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	A2D2: Fine-Tuning Any-Length Discrete Diffusion for Adaptive Decoding	arxiv 2026-06-11	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.59	Uncertainty Estimation for Molecular Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.59	Simultaneous Latent Budget Trees for Stratified Classification	arxiv 2026-06-11	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	Extracting Governing Equations from Latent Dynamics via Multi-View Contrastive Learning	arxiv 2026-06-11	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Selecting Samples on Graphs: A Unified Dataset Pruning Framework for Lossless Training Acceleration	arxiv 2026-06-11	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Physics-Informed Neural Networks and Radial Basis Functions for PDEs with Dirac Delta Sources	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	The Tone of Awareness: Topic, Sentiment, and Toxicity Maps During Mental Health Month on TikTok	arxiv 2026-06-11	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.59	SICI: A Semantic-Pragmatic Complexity Index Reveals Regime Shifts in LLM Stance Detection	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.59	Detect, Remask, Repair: Diffusion Editing for Faithful Summarization of Evolving Contexts	arxiv 2026-06-11	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	The Long Tail, Not the Front Page: Cold-Start Prediction of Crowd Highlight Salience	arxiv 2026-06-10	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.59	Polarization Formalism for Photon-Gravitational Wave Mixing Around Magnetars	arxiv 2026-06-10	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.59	Infinite-Order Lattice Chiral Anomalies and CPT	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	FDA ANDA064050: CLINDAMYCIN PHOSPHATE (CLINDAMYCIN PHOSPHATE) — PADAGIS US	fda 2026-06-10	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA ANDA219830: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — ORIENT PHARMA	fda 2026-06-09	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.59	Will Ibanez be in Brazil's Starting 11?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Will Wales become a US state before 2045?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-06-13	241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade Peter Diamandis	AI	36%
0.59	Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 76%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 76%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will Claude Fable 5 be API Pricing Only when public access returns?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-06-14	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	How many people will LEXER have sex with in June of 2026?	manifold 2026-06-14	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.59	How many people will LEXER have sex with in June of 2026?	manifold 2026-06-14	COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	33%
0.59	Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.59	Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 65%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Microsoft close or divest itself of Rare in 2026?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-06-15	238_041 Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	71%
0.59	[Free Mana] Bot Cucking Market	manifold 2026-06-15	229_011 The humanoid robotics market/economy will be roughly $50 trillion—roughly half of global GDP of human labor. Brett Adcock	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.59	Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs(market prob: 75%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Tereza Valentova win the 2026 Women’s US Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	IMPACTeen: Intentions, Manipulation, Persuasion, Annotations, and Consequences in Teen Communication Dataset	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.59	Dual-Granularity Orthogonal Disentanglement for Generalizable Audio Deepfake Detection	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Learned Image Compression for Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	TCHG: Tri-Trust Conditioned Heterogeneous Graph Learning for Reliable Dynamic Trust Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.59	Taylor-Calibrate: Principled Initialization for Hybrid Linear Attention Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.59	Differentiable Packing of Irregular 3D Objects with Adaptive Container Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-15	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.59	When Confidence Lacks Concepts: Interpretable OOD Detection via Representation Perturbations	arxiv 2026-06-15	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Active Learning with Low-Rank Structure for Data Selection	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	DYNA : Dynamic Episodic Memory Networks for Augmenting Large Language Models with Temporal Knowledge Graphs in Continuous Learning	arxiv 2026-06-14	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.59	FDA NDA206321: SAXENDA (LIRAGLUTIDE) — NOVO	fda 2026-06-02	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.59	Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Structural Role Injection in Handlebars-Templated LLM Prompts: Triple-Brace Interpolation, Delimiter Family, and the Limits of HTML Auto-Escaping	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.59	Geometric Consistency Protocol for Foundation Model Features in Multi-View Satellite Imagery	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.59	A Diffusion Approximation for Temporal-Difference Learning with Linear Features under Markovian Noise	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.59	MM++: Unsupervised Scale-Invariant Multilayer OOD Detection via Top-K Gated Feature Fusion	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Uncertainty Quantification of Engineering Structures by Polynomial Chaos Expansion and Multivariate Active Learning	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.59	ConSA: Controllable Sparsity in Hybrid Attention via Learnable Allocation	arxiv 2026-06-16	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.59	Improving low-resource ASR using bilingual fine-tuning with language identification: a cross-linguistic evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-16	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.59	The Critical Role of Model Selection in Causal Inference: A Comparative Analysis of Classification Models within the InferBERT Framework for Pharmacovigilance	arxiv 2026-06-15	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	Making complex CFTs real: The two-dimensional Potts model for $Q>4$ and complex $Q$	arxiv 2026-06-16	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.59	Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.59	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Justin Rose win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will a Midjourney Scanner be available for paid public full-body scans in the US by Dec 31, 2027?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-06-18	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	Will Donald Trump Tweet within the next 7 days?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-06-18	234_034 Andrew Yang predicts 20-50% of 70M US white collar workers could be displaced in 1-2 years Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-06-18	TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)	—	30%
0.59	G-IdiomAlign: A Gloss-Pivoted Benchmark for Cross-Lingual Idiom Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Graph Grounded Cross Attention Transformer Neural Network for Structurally Constrained Full Event Sequence Generation in Predictive Process Monitoring	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	NeuralMUSIC: A Hybrid Neural-Subspace Framework for Robot Sound Source Localization	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	TMR-GGNN: Credit Card Fraud Detection based on Time-Aware Multi-Relational Guided Graph Neural Network	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.59	JourneyFormer: Encoding Airbnb Guest Journey with Sequence Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-17	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	Hierarchical Attention via Domain Decomposition	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	Pointwise is Pointless? A Multimodal Ablation Study for Precipitation Nowcasting with Graph Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	MOLAR: Learning Multimodal Molecular Representations from Noisy Labels	arxiv 2026-06-16	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.59	Beyond Scalar Scores: Exploring LLM-based Metrics for Clinical Significance Evaluation in Radiology Reports	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.59	FAST-LIVGO: A Degeneracy-Robust LiDAR-Inertial-Visual-GNSS Fusion Odometry	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	Self-Supervised Mask-Aware Transformers for Fault-Tolerant FBG Force Sensing in Minimally Invasive Surgical Robotics	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	The Collins-Soper kernel from a vacuum soft function	arxiv 2026-06-17	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.59	Starmer out by June 22, 2026?(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	Spread: Haiti (-1.5)(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	FlowEdit: Associative Memory for Lifelong Pronunciation Adaptation in Flow-Matching TTS	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.59	Interpretable Sperm Morphology Classification via Attention-Guided Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-06-18	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.59	The Register Gap: A Meaning Intelligence Framework for Nigerian Public Discourse	arxiv 2026-06-18	INF_008 Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — a sustained compounding rate that rapidly surpasses human-level baselines and mandates continuous hardware refresh cycles. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.59	Variable-Length Tokenization via Learnable Global Merging for Diffusion Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-18	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.59	Triangular Consistency as a Universal Constraint for Learning Optical Flow	arxiv 2026-06-18	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.59	When, Where, and How: Adaptive Binning for Tabular Self-Supervised Learning	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	FineREX: Fine-Tuned NER-RE for Human Smuggling Knowledge Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	Concept Flow Models: Anchoring Concept-Based Reasoning with Hierarchical Bottlenecks	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.59	Variational Consensus Monte Carlo for Bayesian Mixture	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Clusters are All You Need: Pre-Training the Tsetlin Machine with Semantic Clusters from Language Models for Interpretability	arxiv 2026-06-18	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	MMD-SLAM: Structure-Enhanced Multi-Meta Gaussian Distribution-Guided Visual SLAM	arxiv 2026-06-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	Reheating as a variational probe of cosmological observables	arxiv 2026-06-17	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw?(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.59	Starmer out by June 26, 2026?(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	Starmer out by June 26, 2026?(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	Starmer out by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Leevoid go to the gym on the 21st of June 2026?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-06-20	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.59	Will I stay in masters conditional on Starmer not being out before July?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-06-19	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	With the new peace talks with Iran, will interest rate rates lower in the next eight weeks?(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-06-19	232_052 Lowered interest rates will drive AI agent and robot purchases instead of hiring. Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	46%
0.59	Canadiens vs. Lightning(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-10	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan	Macro/Economy	72%
0.59	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-17	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.59	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 88%)	polymarket 2025-09-14	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.59	Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.59	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-03-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-30?(market prob: 40%)	polymarket 2026-04-17	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Will a former pornstar become US president before China overtakes the US in GDP?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-04-29	234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail	Geopolitics	44%
0.59	Will ManiFold Hire a GTM manager until 30 May 2026(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-04-29	243_028 Joby eVTOL service hopefully coming to US sometime next year (2027) Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	41%
0.59	Will there be a data leak of personal information sent to Android's age verification system before 2027?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-04-29	240_041 Consumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the next year Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.59	Will I solve an Erdos problem?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-04-27	238_020 Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	61%
0.59	Will there be a 6.7 or greater magnitude earthquake in San Francisco in 2026?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-04-27	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	35%
0.59	What will I get at IMO 2026?	manifold 2026-04-27	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.59	Will the Great Pyramid of Giza Big Void be explored in 2026?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-04-27	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.59	Will I promote to Platinum this season?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-04-26	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.59	Which team will win Marble League 2026?	manifold 2026-04-26	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	Will Donald Trump bomb Iran again in 2026?(market prob: 72%)	manifold 2026-04-25	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.59	If there is an EAGxNordics 2027, where will it take place in?	manifold 2026-04-25	INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	48%
0.59	How much will Manifund's Falcon Fund raise by May 15?	manifold 2026-04-25	244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.59	UEFA Champions League 2025/26 final [Genuine Prediction](market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-04-24	SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. Kevin Weil	AI/Agents	74%
0.59	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-04-23	INF_042 Current market panic over AI compute and power will follow the historical pattern 'shortage leads to oversupply' — trillions flowing into data centers, GPU manufacturing, and energy procurement will ultimately crash the marginal cost of both compute an... Marc Andreessen	Macro/Economy	48%
0.59	The next new party to enter the German federal parliament (the Bundestag) will be an Islamic party. 🇩🇪🏛️☪️(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-04-23	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.59	Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Counter-Strike: Galorys vs Isurus (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #4 Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	234_034 Andrew Yang predicts 20-50% of 70M US white collar workers could be displaced in 1-2 years Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.59	article fb24d74d 3ace 55ce b303 fac8efa3735e.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.59	article	gdelt 2026-04-30	238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	45%
0.59	new details released about settlement in spacex lawsuit against state coastal commission	gdelt 2026-04-30	SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.59	firstsun capital bancorp q1 2026 123000543.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK15 SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure	—	12%
0.59	Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.59	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.59	Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.59	Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.59	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02?(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-04-19	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02?(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-04-19	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	XQC plays RLcraft again before June?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-01	237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn	AI	41%
0.59	XQC plays RLcraft again before June?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-01	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.59	Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by May 31? [Polymarket](market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-05-01	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.59	Will US average gas price reach $4.500 in May 2026?(market prob: 95%)	manifold 2026-05-01	244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.59	Will MNX hire a backend developer before Manifest?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-04-30	231_053 Within a couple months, young AI-native hires will be able to do exactly what seasoned engineers do. Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	50%
0.59	76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 205.5(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.59	76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 205.5(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-05-02?(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-04-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-07-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.59	Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-05-02?(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	How many members will Reform UK have at the start of 2029?	manifold 2026-05-02	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.59	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-22	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.59	Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	LLMs understand language [Convince the Machine #4](market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-03	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.59	Will a Muslim Majority Country Lose Its Majority Before 2040?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-03	FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	30%
0.59	What will I get at IMO 2026?	manifold 2026-05-03	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.59	Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-04	232_059 Universal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on capital side of ledger. Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	34%
0.59	Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.59	Will Vedanta Aluminium (Vedanta Limited)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-05-04	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Hindalco Industries's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 1.4 million tonnes?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	48%
0.59	Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-04	FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Energy	39%
0.59	Will isaak freeman become a nobel laureate?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-04	238_012 OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes Kevin Weil	AI	38%
0.59	Will MIT accept anyone from their 2026 waitlist?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-04	SPC_022 '2026 will be for AI in science what 2025 was for AI in software engineering' — a transition from AI as coding assistant to acting as scientific sparring partner: generating novel hypotheses, analyzing vast datasets, and dramatically accelerating R&D c... Kevin Weil	AI	41%
0.59	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-03	INF_042 Current market panic over AI compute and power will follow the historical pattern 'shortage leads to oversupply' — trillions flowing into data centers, GPU manufacturing, and energy procurement will ultimately crash the marginal cost of both compute an... Marc Andreessen	Macro/Economy	48%
0.59	Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.59	Will my friend Aryan make ARML tb(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-05	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.59	EXXON MOBIL CORP (XOM) (CIK 0000034088)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.59	FDA ANDA217281: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — NOVUGEN	fda 2026-04-27	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.59	FDA ANDA212414: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — HETERO LABS LTD V	fda 2026-04-27	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.59	FDA NDA219293: DANZITEN (NILOTINIB TARTRATE) — AZURITY	fda 2026-04-14	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.59	FDA ANDA220264: VERICIGUAT (VERICIGUAT) — CHANGZHOU PHARMACEUTICAL FACTORY	fda 2026-04-08	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.59	openai/openai-python v2.8.1	github_release 2025-11-17	232_012 US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. Ben Horowitz	Geopolitics	44%
0.59	meta-llama/llama-api-typescript v0.2.3	github_release 2025-09-29	237_019 Code generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript instead of Rust for memory safety. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.14.0	github_release 2023-09-26	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.59	figure out the code - Insider trading and bluffing	manifold 2026-05-06	242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.59	Will abhishaike mahajan ever win the nobel prize?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-04	ROB_003 AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery in just 5 years — effectively bringing 2050-era science to 2030. Already manifesting in resolution of long-standing mathematical proofs (e.g. Erdős problems) via advanced reas... Kevin Weil	AI	45%
0.59	Revisiting Graph-Tokenizing Large Language Models: A Systematic Evaluation of Graph Token Understanding	arxiv 2026-05-05	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.59	GeoDecider: A Coarse-to-Fine Agentic Workflow for Explainable Lithology Classification	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	MedStruct-S: A Benchmark for Key Discovery, Key-Conditioned QA and Semi-Structured Extraction from OCR Clinical Reports	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Compress Then Adapt? No, Do It Together via Task-aware Union of Subspaces	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	mdok-style at SemEval-2026 Task 9: Finetuning LLMs for Multilingual Polarization Detection	arxiv 2026-05-04	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.59	The 2026 ACII Dyadic Conversations (DaiKon) Workshop & Challenge	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.59	Memory-Efficient Continual Learning with CLIP Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.59	Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.59	Donor-Aware scRNA-seq Benchmarks for IBD Classification	arxiv 2026-05-05	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.59	Sparse Memory Finetuning as a Low-Forgetting Alternative to LoRA and Full Finetuning	arxiv 2026-05-04	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.59	Beyond Activation Alignment: The Geometry of Neural Sensitivity	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Attribution-Guided Masking for Robust Cross-Domain Sentiment Classification	arxiv 2026-05-04	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.59	Physics-Informed Neural Learning for State Reconstruction and Parameter Identification in Coupled Greenhouse Climate Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-04	INF_021 AI data centers are the 'steel mills of the 21st century' — humanity will miss near-term climate-change mitigation goals, with the bet that a sufficiently capable AI later solves the climate crisis retroactively. Eric Schmidt	Energy	47%
0.59	A Paradigm for Interpreting Metrics and Identifying Critical Errors in Automatic Speech Recognition	arxiv 2026-05-05	238_024 AI token speed will jump from ~50 tokens/sec to ~1,000 tokens/sec (Cerebras) Emad Mostaque	AI	37%
0.59	From prompting to evidence-based translation: A RAG+prompt system for Japanese-Chinese translation and its pedagogical potential	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.59	CLaC at SemEval-2026 Task 6: Response Clarity Detection in Political Discourse	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.59	Tensegrity crutches with compliance from a pre-stressed self-tensile module improve ground reaction force profiles, speed, effort, comfort, and perceived stability	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Natural Gradient Bayesian Filtering: Geometry-Aware Filter for Dynamical Systems	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Entangling gates for the SU(N) anyons	arxiv 2026-05-05	234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.59	Preparing High-Fidelity Thermofield Double States	arxiv 2026-05-04	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.59	Comment on `On computing quantum waves exactly from classical action'	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Pair creation via Amplitude-Modulated Periodic and Quasiperiodic Pulse Sequences	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.59	Separability from Multipartite Measures	arxiv 2026-05-03	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.59	FDA ANDA215759: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — BIOCON PHARMA	fda 2026-04-27	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.59	FDA ANDA211559: DAPAGLIFLOZIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — MACLEODS PHARMS LTD	fda 2026-04-06	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA ANDA211579: DAPAGLIFLOZIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — LUPIN	fda 2026-04-06	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA NDA217180: JAKAFI XR (RUXOLITINIB PHOSPHATE) — INCYTE CORPORATION	fda 2026-05-01	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.59	facebookresearch/map-anything v1.0.1	github_release 2026-01-18	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.59	Will Trump visit China by May 8?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-14	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.59	Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08?(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	What will happen related to the Hantavirus in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-07	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Hantavirus Pandemic 2026-2027?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-05-07	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	What will be the Opening Weekend Domestic Gross of 'Mortal Kombat II' (2026)?	manifold 2026-05-07	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.59	Beyond Semantics: An Evidential Reasoning-Aware Multi-View Learning Framework for Trustworthy Mental Health Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-06	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Uncertainty-Aware Exploratory Direct Preference Optimization for Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-06	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	StoryAlign: Evaluating and Training Reward Models for Story Generation	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	Harnessing Linguistic Dissimilarity for Language Generalization on Unseen Low-Resource Varieties	arxiv 2026-05-06	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.59	GEM: Graph-Enhanced Mixture-of-Experts with ReAct Agents for Dialogue State Tracking	arxiv 2026-05-06	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.59	FDA BLA761349: COSENTYX (SECUKINUMAB) — NOVARTIS PHARMS CORP	fda 2026-04-17	TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event	—	15%
0.59	facebookresearch/faiss v1.13.2	github_release 2025-12-19	230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.59	facebookresearch/faiss v1.13.2	github_release 2025-12-19	239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk	AI	47%
0.59	facebookresearch/faiss v1.13.2	github_release 2025-12-19	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.59	facebookresearch/faiss v1.5.1	github_release 2019-05-30	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.59	facebookresearch/faiss v1.5.1	github_release 2019-05-30	CMQ_044 Future data-center architectures optimized for agentic workflows may require 1:2 or even 2:1 CPU-to-GPU ratio (vs historical 1:12) to prevent GPU idle-waiting. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	65%
0.59	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.31.post1	github_release 2025-07-08	S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026 Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026	robotaxi_deployment	40%
0.59	Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.59	Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	22%
0.59	If we survive the singularity, will the average guy be able to get a catgirl harem with almost zero effort?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-05-08	230_034 Abundance will be achieved by 2035. Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	41%
0.59	Who will become president first?	manifold 2026-05-07	236_002 UBI must come before UHI as an intermediate step Andrew Yang	Macro/Economy	42%
0.59	From Token Lists to Graph Motifs: Weisfeiler-Lehman Analysis of Sparse Autoencoder Features	arxiv 2026-05-07	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	CredibleDFGO: Differentiable Factor Graph Optimization with Credibility Supervision	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Quantum Kernels for Audio Deepfake Detection Using Spectrogram Patch Features	arxiv 2026-05-07	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.59	iPhoneBlur: A Difficulty-Stratified Benchmark for Consumer Device Motion Deblurring	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_001 Single operators utilizing low-cost hardware (e.g., $600 Mac Minis) will be able to replicate the output of entire enterprise teams, drastically reducing the friction of multi-million-dollar software development — leading to total dissolution of middle... Alex Finn	Labor/Jobs	48%
0.59	Beyond Uniform Credit Assignment: Selective Eligibility Traces for RLVR	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.59	Efficient Techniques for Data Reconstruction, with Finite-Width Recovery Guarantees	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Dynamic Controlled Variables Based Dynamic Self-Optimizing Control	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	Federated Cross-Client Subgraph Pattern Detection	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.59	FRInGe: Distribution-Space Integrated Gradients with Fisher--Rao Geometry	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	A Flow Matching Algorithm for Many-Shot Adaptation to Unseen Distributions	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.59	ConquerNet: Convolution-Smoothed Quantile ReLU Neural Networks with Minimax Guarantees	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Trade-off Functions for DP-SGD with Subsampling based on Random Shuffling: Tight Upper and Lower Bounds	arxiv 2026-05-07	242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.59	When Brain Networks Travel: Learning Beyond Site	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	TabCF: Distributional Control Function Estimation with Tabular Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	Sharper Guarantees for Misspecified Kernelized Bandit Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-07	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	Who and What? Using Linguistic Features and Annotator Characteristics to Analyze Annotation Variation	arxiv 2026-05-07	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.59	Quantifying the Statistical Effect of Rubric Modifications on Human-Autorater Agreement	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.59	Uncovering Entity Identity Confusion in Multimodal Knowledge Editing	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.59	Uncovering Entity Identity Confusion in Multimodal Knowledge Editing	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	RVPO: Risk-Sensitive Alignment via Variance Regularization	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.59	When2Speak: A Dataset for Temporal Participation and Turn-Taking in Multi-Party Conversations for Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	Tightly-Coupled Estimation and Guidance for Robust Low-Thrust Rendezvous via Adaptive Homotopy	arxiv 2026-05-06	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	30%
0.59	Pro-Tensor Network	arxiv 2026-05-07	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.59	Exact solutions, trajectories and radiation patterns in the classical relativistic Störmer problem	arxiv 2026-05-06	242_002 Long-term petawatt compute will come only from lunar mass drivers Peter Diamandis	Space	37%
0.59	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10?(market prob: 63%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10?(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	FLUOR CORP (FLR) (CIK 0001124198)	edgar_8k 2026-05-08	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.59	APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS, INC. (AAOI) (CIK 0001158114)	edgar_8k 2026-05-08	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.59	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11?(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 217.5(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Fisher College (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage(market prob: 75%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will OMIE Spain 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed €60/MWh?(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-04	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.59	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	price of silver at the end of may?	manifold 2026-05-11	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	facebookresearch/spdl v0.0.9	github_release 2025-03-05	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.59	Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-13?(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 78%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.59	Will CR Brasil vs. AA Ponte Preta end in a draw?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will AC Goianiense vs. São Bernardo FC end in a draw?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	L3HARRIS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. /DE/ (LHX) (CIK 0000202058)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.5.8	github_release 2025-04-09	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.59	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.5.5	github_release 2024-09-26	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.59	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.5.2	github_release 2024-06-14	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.59	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.5.0	github_release 2024-03-21	238_024 AI token speed will jump from ~50 tokens/sec to ~1,000 tokens/sec (Cerebras) Emad Mostaque	AI	37%
0.59	Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-21	241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.59	Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.59	Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-22	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Can anyone get talkie-1930 to describe Chomskian recursive syntax?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-05-13	247_012 The bar for AI startups will rise to require being recursively self-improving Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) (CIK 0001970622)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	SPC_018 Five North America-linked miners — MP Materials, Almonty Industries, Freeport-McMoRan, Alcoa, Teck Resources — are critical dependencies for the emerging space hardware supply chain: copper (regenerative cooling channels, Raptor/BE-4 pressure scaling),... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	65%
0.59	USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) (CIK 0001970622)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	SPC_018 Five North America-linked miners — MP Materials, Almonty Industries, Freeport-McMoRan, Alcoa, Teck Resources — are critical dependencies for the emerging space hardware supply chain: copper (regenerative cooling channels, Raptor/BE-4 pressure scaling),... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	65%
0.59	APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS, INC. (AAOI) (CIK 0001158114)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.59	KAN-CL: Per-Knot Importance Regularization for Continual Learning with Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.59	Missingness-MDPs: Bridging the Theory of Missing Data and POMDPs	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.59	Sobolev Regularized MMD Gradient Flow	arxiv 2026-05-12	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Constrained Stochastic Spectral Preconditioning Converges for Nonconvex Objectives	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Sharpen Your Flow: Sharpness-Aware Sampling for Flow Matching	arxiv 2026-05-12	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	Taming Extreme Tokens: Covariance-Aware GRPO with Gaussian-Kernel Advantage Reweighting	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Generative climate downscaling enables high-resolution compound risk assessment by preserving multivariate dependencies	arxiv 2026-05-12	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.59	Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.59	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	41%
0.59	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?(market prob: 69%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	FUT_002 Mean expert estimate for AGI collapsed from 50-year horizon to ~5 years over a 4-year window leading to mid-2020s — placing expected AGI arrival firmly in 2029-2031 window per Metaculus + 80000 Hours aggregate tracking; quantitative forecasters now ali... Superforecaster Community	AI	40%
0.59	Will Michael Thorbjornsen win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	If we automate every FIFA World Cup market and resolution, how many traders will @ManifoldSports have by the end?	manifold 2026-05-13	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.59	APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS, INC. (AAOI) (CIK 0001158114)	edgar_8k 2026-05-14	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.59	Fast and effective algorithms for fair clustering at scale	arxiv 2026-05-13	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.59	DisAgg: Distributed Aggregators for Efficient Secure Aggregation in Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	ArcVQ-VAE: A Spherical Vector Quantization Framework with ArcCosine Additive Margin	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Pretraining Language Models with Subword Regularization: An Empirical Study of BPE Dropout in Low-Resource NLP	arxiv 2026-05-13	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.59	LIFT: Last-Mile Fine-Tuning for Table Explicitation	arxiv 2026-05-13	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.59	Support-Conditioned Flow Matching Is Kernel Smoothing	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Proximal-Based Generative Modeling for Bayesian Inverse Problems	arxiv 2026-05-13	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Coupling-Informed Transport Maps for Bayesian Filtering in Nonlinear Dynamical Systems	arxiv 2026-05-13	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.59	Adaptive Kernel Density Estimation with Pre-training	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Coreset-Induced Conditional Velocity Flow Matching	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	CRePE: Curved Ray Expectation Positional Encoding for Unified-Camera-Controlled Video Generation	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.59	IV-ICL: Bounding Causal Effects with Instrumental Variables via In-Context Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_014 Most profound impacts of autonomous AI originate NOT from closed proprietary models within multi-billion-dollar corporate data centers, but from globally distributed open-source models — open-weight parity with frontier systems enables any individual o... Emad Mostaque	AI	53%
0.59	FDA ANDA212336: ANDA212336 ((unspecified)) — DR REDDYS LABS LTD	fda 2026-05-07	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.59	Will Delhi Capitals win the 2026 Indian Premier League?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Jimmy Lai released by June 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-13	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Haotong Li win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.59	Globalstar, Inc. (GSAT) (CIK 0001366868)	edgar_8k 2026-05-15	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.59	Nano Nuclear Energy Inc. (NNE) (CIK 0001923891)	edgar_8k 2026-05-15	S_COMPUTE_100GW_2030 Compute: 100GW national-scale by Dec 2030	compute_scale	20%
0.59	BCI-Based Assessment of Ocular Response Time Using Dynamic Time Warping Leveraging an RDWT-Driven Deep Neural Framework	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.59	IsoNet: Spatially-aware audio-visual target speech extraction in complex acoustic environments	arxiv 2026-05-14	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.59	Deep Image Segmentation via Discriminant Feature Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Deep Image Segmentation via Discriminant Feature Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Beyond Binary: Reframing GUI Critique as Continuous Semantic Alignment	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.59	ICED: Concept-level Machine Unlearning via Interpretable Concept Decomposition	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	To See is Not to Learn: Protecting Multimodal Data from Unauthorized Fine-Tuning of Large Vision-Language Model	arxiv 2026-05-14	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.59	Artificial Intelligence-Assistant Cardiotocography: Unified Model for Signal Reconstruction, Fetal Heart Rate Analysis, and Variability Assessment	arxiv 2026-05-14	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.59	To discretize continually: Mean shift interacting particle systems for Bayesian inference	arxiv 2026-05-13	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.59	Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	will there be a major linux virus in 2026?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-05-16	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.59	FDA ANDA216537: CARBIDOPA AND LEVODOPA (CARBIDOPA) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-05-08	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%