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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-30 | 236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (SS 433)(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Will a wild card team win the MLB World Series in 2026?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-29 | S_AI_PAUSE_2028 AI pause beginning 2028 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | LessOnline 2027 will use brand new event software(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 244_018 In 10 years you won't have to drive and will have plenty of choices Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | Will UFC Freedom 250 End Early due to a Disruption/Safety Concern?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 231_010 China has peaked and is going to be on descent. Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 238_003 Moonshots podcast team will soon move into an Airbnb for continuous podcasting Peter Diamandis | Media/Ads | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the Spurs or Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-31 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-30 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 231_010 China has peaked and is going to be on descent. Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I receive a score on the TSTST high enough to qualify for the TST(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 242_006 Terafab will reach 70% of TSMC's output Peter Diamandis | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will Trump and Iran’s Supreme Leader meet in 2026?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 240_060 Everyone will be able to use video models to turn favorite books into movies Peter Diamandis | Media/Ads | 54% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Minnesota ARML score breakdowns be posted before EOD June 10?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 70% | |
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (Faber–Jackson relation)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-06 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 79%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Will Apple TV+ launch in Romania tommorow at WWDC 2026?(market prob: 3%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | 234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-07 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-07 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | More ships through Strait of Hormuz than goals at 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.56 | ......MART.......(market prob: 97%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 248_006 The Luna AI-managed store will be one of the best-managed stores in the world within a year. Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Will monsoon reach Bihar by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 74%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick | Robotics | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 231_010 China has peaked and is going to be on descent. Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | Will someone manigram me 500 mana?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 246_031 Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.56 | Will the UzChess Cup (Masters division) go to tiebreaks?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Jews admit that they control the weather before 2030?(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 230_005 Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (Monster black hole)(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 38% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-27 | SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 56% | ||
| 0.56 | JD Vance Receives Cosmetic Jaw or Face Surgery Before 2028(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 235_032 Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. Elon Musk | Robotics | 16% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-26 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 233_007 In 2026, Alpha will launch new schools beyond the flagship model based on the Timeback platform. Joe Liemandt | Education | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | Will pine sell out to CS?(market prob: 77%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Will Putin attend the G20 Summit in the US in 2026?(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.56 | USA vs Iran in World Cup 2026?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | |
| 0.56 | Red vs. Blue button (Free Mana, resolves N/A)(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 232_019 AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. Ben Horowitz | AI | 51% | |
| 0.56 | Red vs. Blue button (Free Mana, resolves N/A)(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 248_050 Opus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 70% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 78% | ||
| 0.56 | Iran closes its airspace by May 31st?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 231_011 The country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war. Peter Diamandis | Geopolitics | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I take a leave of absence?(market prob: 62%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (Giant Magellan Telescope)(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.56 | Will national dry van spot rate be $1.75–$2.00/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang | Markets/Stocks | 78% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-12 | CMQ_008 Rapid agentic automation of white-collar work could precipitate an employment crisis requiring entirely new tax structures to manage displacement. Dario Amodei | Labor/Jobs | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the US attack Cuba in the next 30 days?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | CMQ_061 Cuban proposed issuance of a US government-backed memecoin specifically to help reduce the United States' ~$37 trillion national debt. Mark Cuban | Crypto | 4% | |
| 0.56 | Will Android succeed in making it harder to side-load apps(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 232_034 Apple owning an open-weight LLM hosting strategy would be the single best product strategy for their hardware. Ben Horowitz | AI | 46% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-14 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Pauline Hanson meet Donald Trump face-to-face in 2026?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-16 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | On Jan 1, 2028, will it be legal to boil a lobster alive in Switzerland?(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-16 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-19 | COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 30% | ||
| 0.56 | Will The Simpsons Movie 2 domestic box office exceed its budget?(market prob: 72%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 240_010 NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Will Israel attack Iraq in 2037?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | CMQ_012 AGI by 2027; superintelligence by 2030 — full automation of AI researchers in 2027 triggers post-AGI intelligence explosion. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 41% | |
| 0.56 | Will Vladimir Putin's approval rating decrease in June 2026?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 235_001 Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-25 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.56 | European Central Bank raises rates at June meeting?(market prob: 76%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | 236_027 Debt delinquency and mortgage delinquency rates rising; financial distress ratcheting up Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 51% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Spurs or Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | Do you like 46% odds?(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 240_023 45% of dementia cases are entirely preventable Dr. Don Mucalem | Biotech/Longevity | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Will Solana close below $76 at any day in June?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 38% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-03 | COD_SPC_001 Artemis III flies as an Earth-orbit HLS/EVA suit test mission in 2027, not a lunar landing Codex Research Pack | Space | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-05 | SEM_016 Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chain resilience. David Friedberg | Semis/Geopolitics | 24% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I score higher than 1500 on the June 6th SAT?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 233_003 Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring. MacKenzie Price | Education | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Will Demis Hassabis also win a Nobel Prize in Medicine?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 234_007 Kevin Weil aims for next 100 Nobel Prizes to be issued in partnership with AI Kevin Weil | AI | 38% | |
| 0.56 | Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas this year? (Kalshi)(market prob: 49%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas this year? (Kalshi)(market prob: 49%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Will I be promoted to platinum at the end of this season?(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Will monsoon reach Bihar by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 74%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 246_017 Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. Peter Diamandis | Space | 38% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-10 | S_ASI_SLOW_2040PLUS ASI slow: post-2040 / soft takeoff | asi_recursive_self_improvement | 60% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.56 | Will there be a large-scale riot in NYC after the NBA finals?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | 230_044 Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. Peter Diamandis | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 229_043 Figure expects to hire a small handful of lead customers rather than broad distribution over next 6-12 months. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-13 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Fable be reenabled for Americans before June 20?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I promote to Platinum this season?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I ban mobile devices from my bedroom next week?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | 231_020 Smart glasses with face recognition will become part of normative culture (peer pressure forces opt-in). Dave Blundin | Consumer | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Will a particular friend of mine crack anyone while at math camp?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 248_049 Humans (weaker intelligences) can successfully align/contain super-intelligences via weak-to-strong supervision. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Will I receive my manifold markets t-shirt?(market prob: 94%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 43% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-23 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | Bayern vs PSG, Champions League Semi Final Leg 2 6th May of 2026(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I stay in Masters League this season?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Is my number squarefree?(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 69% | |
| 0.56 | FREE 1K MANA(market prob: 80%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 240_058 OpenAI throttling back on $1.6T Stargate plans Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.56 | Rudy Giuliani dead by end of May 2026?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-05 | INF_019 A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for evaporative cooling — roughly equivalent to municipal supply for a town of 50,000 people. Elon Musk | Energy | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I ban mobile devices from my bedroom next week?(market prob: 61%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 231_020 Smart glasses with face recognition will become part of normative culture (peer pressure forces opt-in). Dave Blundin | Consumer | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | Will North Korea conduct a major military provocation(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 248_024 AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 46% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-11 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | Will national dry van spot rate be below $1.50/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Will national dry van spot rate be $1.75–$2.00/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Hampshire College be open in 2028?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | test-b(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | Will my nephew join Manifold before June 1?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick | Robotics | 42% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 248_043 Full sewing/stitching automation likely within six months. Dave Blundin | Robotics | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Championship?(market prob: 43%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | COD_AI_003 EU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin on 2026-08-02 without a blanket delay Codex Research Pack | Geopolitics | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | New fish species (market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | 237_018 We are seeing a Cambrian explosion of OpenClaw variants (PicoClaw, IronClaw, NanoClaw, Nanobot, etc.) with many more to come. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | Will the 2026 NBA Finals reach a Game 6?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Will Florida PALM go live as scheduled on January 11, 2027?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-31 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-04 | SPC_012 SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical prerequisite for future Mars missions, enabling Starship depot-based beyond-LEO operations. Peter Diamandis | Space | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I get accepted to the August Iliad Intensive?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 233_005 Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year. Dave Blundin | AI | 51% | |
| 0.56 | Will July 2026 in Boston be one of the 5 warmest July's ever?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | Will any 2026 World Cup team advance through group stage with 0 wins?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 243_028 Joby eVTOL service hopefully coming to US sometime next year (2027) Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | Will a Goalkeeper score a goal at the 2026 fifa mens World Cup?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Will the USA reach the quarter-finals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | AUT_007 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll... Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 13% | |
| 0.56 | Will there be 4 hat tricks in the 2026 World Cup?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (cosmic microwave background)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | ||
| 0.56 | Will someone manigram me 500 mana?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 242_042 Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 235_036 AI-generated images will eliminate commercial photography, illustrators and stock image platforms. Peter Diamandis | Media/Ads | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | Will someone streak during the World Cup 2026 final match?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Do you like 4% odds?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 242_028 AI could automate 25% of US work hours Goldman Sachs | Labor/Jobs | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Will the 2026 Kentucky Derby have a close finish?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Will the 2026 Kentucky Derby have a close finish?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Israel attack Iraq in 2030?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | Will pine sell out to CS?(market prob: 77%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.56 | will drake delay iceman from his proposed date (15th may)(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk | AI/AGI | 19% | |
| 0.56 | will drake delay iceman from his proposed date (15th may)(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | CMQ_047 Autonomous code agents and AutoResearch systems will close the loop on complex scientific experimentation without human-in-the-loop. Andrej Karpathy | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 243_041 Delivery/retail (non-food) business growing much faster than expected Dara Khosrowshahi | Consumer | 48% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I get 90%+ in all my courses this semester?(market prob: 90%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 242_016 TV ad campaign against human driving in 3-5 years will drive voting to ban it Dave Blundin | Auto/Transport | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-02 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I stay in masters this season?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.56 | Will I place last in Masters Season 37?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Will the montreal canadiens win the stanley cup in 2026?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk | AI/AGI | 19% | ||
| 0.56 | Rudy Giuliani dead by end of May 2026?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-05 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-10 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-11 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 231_039 Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach. Peter Diamandis | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 247_004 Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit conversions Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the 2026 NBA Finals go to a Game 7?(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% |