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79,555 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 121 of 148, 500 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.58	AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) (CIK 0001780312)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	facebookresearch/spdl v0.3.0	github_release 2026-03-23	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.58	facebookresearch/spdl v0.1.4	github_release 2025-09-10	CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic	AI	80%
0.58	Counter-Strike: Liquid vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.58	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.58	Valorant: Joblife vs WIP Esports (BO5) - VCL France: Revolution Stage 2 Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	235_020 Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	29%
0.58	Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5)(market prob: 78%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2025-11-28	229_026 By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months. Brett Adcock	Robotics	38%
0.58	Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.58	Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.58	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	240_030 Tesla's independent chip production would derisk potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	35%
0.58	Will WHO classify the current hantavirus outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by end of 2026?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-05-12	FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan	Macro/Economy	72%
0.58	What will my Zetamac score (average of 5) be in a week?	manifold 2026-05-11	242_005 Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day) Peter Diamandis	Space	49%
0.58	ENTERGY CORP /DE/ (ETR) (CIK 0000065984)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	61%
0.58	Lumen Technologies, Inc. (LUMN) (CIK 0000018926)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	CMQ_038 Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to reduce 'time to first token' for long-context LLM inference. Micron	Semis/Memory	52%
0.58	ENTERGY CORP /DE/ (ETR) (CIK 0000065984)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	61%
0.58	ZEBRA TECHNOLOGIES CORP (ZBRA) (CIK 0000877212)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.58	ZEBRA TECHNOLOGIES CORP (ZBRA) (CIK 0000877212)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	61%
0.58	FDA ANDA078945: ONDANSETRON HYDROCHLORIDE PRESERVATIVE FREE (ONDANSETRON HYDROCHLORIDE) — AVET LIFESCIENCES	fda 2026-05-01	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.7.1	github_release 2025-11-11	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.58	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.6.0	github_release 2025-05-14	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.58	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.5.6	github_release 2024-12-05	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.58	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.5.5	github_release 2024-09-26	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.58	Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.58	Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.58	Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.58	LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore	Semis/Products	71%
0.58	Will Kash Patel still be FBI Director On 1st July 2026(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-05-13	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.58	Trump meets Xi Jinping again in 2026?(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-05-13	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.58	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? [Polymarket](market prob: 1%)	manifold 2026-05-13	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	EQUIFAX INC (EFX) (CIK 0000033185)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	ACUITY INC. (DE) (AYI) (CIK 0001144215)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.58	APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS, INC. (AAOI) (CIK 0001158114)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.58	A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling	arxiv 2026-05-12	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.58	A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.58	Random-Set Graph Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.58	QDSB: Quantized Diffusion Schrödinger Bridges	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	FDA NDA019010: LUPRON (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — ABBVIE ENDOCRINE INC	fda 2026-05-06	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.58	Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.58	Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs(market prob: 69%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.58	Game Handicap: BRO (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5)(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will a Democratic president begin demolishing Trump’s White House ballroom before 2029(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-05-14	FUT_006 Organizations must practice 'creative destruction on purpose' 2026-2031: deliberately dismantle legacy operations before lateral multi-domain convergence renders them obsolete. Traditional technology hype cycle rejected; future no longer arrives one tr... Amy Webb	Macro/Economy	50%
0.58	Who will be East Java rank 1 on the provincial round of 2026 Indonesia National Math Olympiad?	manifold 2026-05-13	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	LITHIUM AMERICAS CORP. (LAC) (CIK 0001966983)	edgar_8k 2026-05-14	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.58	APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS, INC. (AAOI) (CIK 0001158114)	edgar_8k 2026-05-14	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.58	Lumen Technologies, Inc. (LUMN) (CIK 0000018926)	edgar_8k 2026-05-14	CMQ_038 Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to reduce 'time to first token' for long-context LLM inference. Micron	Semis/Memory	52%
0.58	R-DMesh: Video-Guided 3D Animation via Rectified Dynamic Mesh Flow	arxiv 2026-05-13	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.58	Di-BiLPS: Denoising induced Bidirectional Latent-PDE-Solver under Sparse Observations	arxiv 2026-05-13	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Utility-Oriented Visual Evidence Selection for Multimodal Retrieval-Augmented Generation	arxiv 2026-05-13	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.58	EvObj: Learning Evolving Object-centric Representations for 3D Instance Segmentation without Scene Supervision	arxiv 2026-05-13	229_045 Figure will not differentiate by vertical form factor—general-purpose humanoid is the bet. Brett Adcock	Robotics	28%
0.58	meta-llama/llama-api-python v0.6.0	github_release 2025-12-18	CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic	AI	80%
0.58	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.58	Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.58	Valorant: MIBR vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.58	Will Rae Huang win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.58	San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.58	Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 0.5(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.58	Will iPhone 18 drop before 30 may	manifold 2026-05-15	INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn	Consumer	77%
0.58	PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) (CIK 0001633917)	edgar_8k 2026-05-15	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	RoSHAP: A Distributional Framework and Robust Metric for Stable Feature Attribution	arxiv 2026-05-14	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	RoSHAP: A Distributional Framework and Robust Metric for Stable Feature Attribution	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.58	Denoising-GS: Gaussian Splatting with Spatial-aware Denoising	arxiv 2026-05-14	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.58	Learning Scenario Reduction for Two-Stage Robust Optimization with Discrete Uncertainty	arxiv 2026-05-14	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.58	Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-05-16?(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-04-19	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 74%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.58	Nürburgring 24 Hours Prop bets	manifold 2026-05-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	FDA ANDA204741: CAPECITABINE (CAPECITABINE) — AMNEAL PHARMS	fda 2026-05-07	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.58	FDA ANDA200880: ACETAZOLAMIDE SODIUM (ACETAZOLAMIDE SODIUM) — MYLAN ASI	fda 2026-05-07	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.58	FDA NDA022173: ZYPREXA RELPREVV (OLANZAPINE PAMOATE) — CHEPLAPHARM	fda 2026-05-07	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	FDA NDA019414: CARDIOGEN-82 (RUBIDIUM CHLORIDE RB-82) — BRACCO	fda 2026-05-13	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.58	facebookresearch/hydra v1.3.2	github_release 2023-02-23	CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic	AI	80%
0.58	facebookresearch/hydra v1.0.5	github_release 2021-01-07	AUT_021 Defining software movement of 2026: startups building autonomous platforms specifically designed to clean/structure/continuously validate multimodal data — unstructured corporate sludge (PDFs, logs, videos, emails) causes autonomous agentic workflows t... Marc Andreessen	AI	57%
0.58	LoL: Sentinels vs Dignitas - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.58	Valorant: MIBR vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-05-17	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	How long will it take for my cat to step into our new house?	manifold 2026-05-17	229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock	Robotics	20%
0.58	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner	Energy	57%
0.58	Ebola case in the US by June 30?(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.58	Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	233_011 Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption. Joe Liemandt	Education	37%
0.58	Will Russia control Konstantinovka by the end of November 2026?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-18	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.58	Which countries will be designated state sponsors of terrorism by the US at the end of 2027?	manifold 2026-05-18	FUT_014 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	55%
0.58	What vote shares will the parties get in the Makerfield by election?	manifold 2026-05-18	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.58	Spread: Knicks (-6.5)(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.58	Spread: Knicks (-6.5)(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	30%
0.58	Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs Project 91 (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series#3 Group B(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.58	Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs Project 91 (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series#3 Group B(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Avalanche vs Golden Knights series winner, Stanley Cup 2026(market prob: 71%)	manifold 2026-05-19	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	What month will be most active in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?	manifold 2026-05-19	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.58	Will I get any money again from manifold this year?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-18	246_031 Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Top team score for ARML 2026 greater than 235?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-05-17	SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	56%
0.58	CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORP (CINF) (CIK 0000020286)	edgar_8k 2026-05-19	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.58	AMERICAN TOWER CORP /MA/ (AMT) (CIK 0001053507)	edgar_8k 2026-05-19	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.58	AMERICAN TOWER CORP /MA/ (AMT) (CIK 0001053507)	edgar_8k 2026-05-19	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	scHelix: Asymmetric Dual-Stream Integration via Explicit Gene-Level Disentanglement	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	FDA ANDA219189: GALLIUM GA-68 GOZETOTIDE (GALLIUM GA-68 GOZETOTIDE) — IONETIX	fda 2026-05-14	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.58	Will David Njoku play for Kansas City Chiefs in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Will Jakob Glesnes win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-06	SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	39%
0.58	Will David Njoku play for New Orleans Saints in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-02	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.58	Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.58	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.58	Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.58	Will "Claude, Author of the Humanitas" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-05-27	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.58	How will I do on ARML 2026	manifold 2026-05-26	SPC_022 '2026 will be for AI in science what 2025 was for AI in software engineering' — a transition from AI as coding assistant to acting as scientific sparring partner: generating novel hypotheses, analyzing vast datasets, and dramatically accelerating R&D c... Kevin Weil	AI	41%
0.58	Will any ARML 2026 problem in the individual round have exactly 67 or 41 solves, if one has 121 solves resolves 67%.(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-25	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.58	Confirmed Ebola case in North America by EOY 2026?(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-05-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Wikipedia's article on xAi's successor to Grokipedia under title Encyclopedia Galactica by Christmas eve 2027?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-25	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.58	MOSAIC CO (MOS) (CIK 0001285785)	edgar_8k 2026-05-29	SEM_020 Nvidia preemptively reserved 800,000-850,000 TSMC wafers for 2026 — 8x SMIC's entire advanced-process capacity. Nvidia (All-In Podcast analysis)	Semis	74%
0.58	iLoRA: Bayesian Low-Rank Adaptation with Latent Interaction Graphs for Microbiome Diagnosis	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Genetically Aligned Patient Representations Improve Hematological Diagnosis	arxiv 2026-05-28	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.58	Gesture-Aware Indoor THz ISAC Systems for Adaptive Resource Allocation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.58	MMTM: Tri-Modal Topic Modeling for Long-Form Video via Similarity-Gated Fusion	arxiv 2026-05-28	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.58	Instance-dependent Stochastic Lipschitz bandit	arxiv 2026-05-28	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.58	Evaluating Cross-lingual Knowledge Consistency in Code-Mixed vis-a-vis Indian Languages using IndicKLAR	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_034 The AI-native education model will see global adoption within approximately 5 years — driven by sub-$1,000 offline tablets and AI tutors capable of lifting historically lagging demographics (e.g. New Mexico, Sub-Saharan Africa) into top-tier performanc... Joe Liemandt	Education	22%
0.58	Evaluating Cross-lingual Knowledge Consistency in Code-Mixed vis-a-vis Indian Languages using IndicKLAR	arxiv 2026-05-28	INF_008 Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — a sustained compounding rate that rapidly surpasses human-level baselines and mandates continuous hardware refresh cycles. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.58	Exact Geometric Typicality and Bipartite Entanglement from the Projected Central Limit Theorem on Hyperspheres	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	FDA NDA214275: UPTRAVI (SELEXIPAG) — ACTELION	fda 2026-05-23	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.58	FDA ANDA040191: MEPERIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE (MEPERIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — STRIDES PHARMA INTL	fda 2026-05-15	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	New York Yankees vs. Athletics(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-23	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.58	Set Handicap: Jodar (-2.5) vs Busta (+2.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will Portland Fire win the 2026 WNBA Finals?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2025-12-04	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.58	Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?(market prob: 87%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.58	Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.58	Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?(market prob: 85%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.58	Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open?(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open?(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Set 1 Winner: Tiafoe vs Arnaldi(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.58	How many views will all plzdontkillus content receive in July?	manifold 2026-05-31	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.58	FDA ANDA220299: ISOPROTERENOL HYDROCHLORIDE (ISOPROTERENOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — ASPIRO	fda 2026-05-18	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.58	FDA NDA204114: MEKINIST (TRAMETINIB DIMETHYL SULFOXIDE) — NOVARTIS	fda 2026-05-07	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.58	FDA NDA220711: BEQALZI (SONROTOCLAX) — BEONE MEDICINES USA	fda 2026-05-13	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.58	FDA ANDA207717: OXCARBAZEPINE (OXCARBAZEPINE) — RUBICON RESEARCH	fda 2026-05-15	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Valorant: QoR vs FlyQuest (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	234_004 Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs M80 (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore	Semis/Products	71%
0.58	What is true about the absence of Rep. Thomas Kean Jr. (Add Answers)	manifold 2026-06-01	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.58	Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW) (CIK 0001327567)	edgar_8k 2026-06-02	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.58	NUCOR CORP (NUE) (CIK 0000073309)	edgar_8k 2026-06-02	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	61%
0.58	AMERICAN TOWER CORP /MA/ (AMT) (CIK 0001053507)	edgar_8k 2026-06-02	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.58	AMERICAN TOWER CORP /MA/ (AMT) (CIK 0001053507)	edgar_8k 2026-06-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Consistency Training while Mitigating Obfuscation via Rate Matching	arxiv 2026-06-01	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.58	Attention mechanisms and transfer learning for robust peach leaf damage classification under domain shift	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.58	Echo: A Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture for Speaker Diarization and Speech Recognition in a Shared Latent Space	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.58	Echo: A Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture for Speaker Diarization and Speech Recognition in a Shared Latent Space	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Construction of Historical Knowledge Graphs Based on BERT and Graph Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-01	231_007 AI will analyze scientific literature and shock humanity by revealing wrong turns made over the past century. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.58	TrafficRAG: A Multimodal RAG Framework for Traffic Accident Liability Determination	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_025 The legal profession must transition from viewing AI as a 'prompter' to an active 'partner' — when an autonomous AI consultant hallucinates legal precedent or medical diagnosis, traditional corporate malpractice frameworks fail; courts must rapidly est... Ralph Losey	Other	77%
0.58	Measurement Geometry and Design for Trustworthy Generative Inverse Problems	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.58	Low-Pass Flow Matching	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.58	Low-Pass Flow Matching	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	G2LoRA: Gradient Orthogonal Low-Rank Adaptation Framework for Graph Continual Learning on Text-Attributed Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-01	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.58	Gate the Filter, Not the Message: Node-Channel Mixtures for Pre-Propagation GNNs	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.58	Challenger at MultiPRIDE: Is It Hate Speech or Reclaimed?	arxiv 2026-05-31	232_006 YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content. Peter Diamandis	Media/Ads	51%
0.58	FDA NDA207947: UPTRAVI (SELEXIPAG) — ACTELION	fda 2026-05-23	240_056 Anthropic enterprise market share to continue growing (went from 40% to 73% in 3 months) Peter Diamandis	AI	54%
0.58	FDA NDA022180: FERAHEME (FERUMOXYTOL) — AZURITY	fda 2026-05-27	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.2.5	github_release 2023-07-29	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.58	Spread: Spurs (-3.5)(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Knicks vs. Spurs(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.58	NextDecade Corp (NEXT) (CIK 0001612720)	edgar_8k 2026-06-03	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.58	FDA NDA202811: LINZESS (LINACLOTIDE) — ABBVIE	fda 2026-05-21	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.58	FDA ANDA062800: CLINDAMYCIN PHOSPHATE (CLINDAMYCIN PHOSPHATE) — ALMAJECT	fda 2026-05-28	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	FDA BLA761108: ULTOMIRIS (RAVULIZUMAB-CWVZ) — ALEXION PHARM	fda 2026-06-01	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	FDA BLA761108: ULTOMIRIS (RAVULIZUMAB-CWVZ) — ALEXION PHARM	fda 2026-06-01	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.58	FDA ANDA062943: CLINDAMYCIN PHOSPHATE (CLINDAMYCIN PHOSPHATE) — ALMAJECT	fda 2026-05-28	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.58	Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.58	Makarska: Akasha Urhobo vs Darja Semenistaja(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Maya Joint win the 2026 Women’s French Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.58	Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open?(market prob: 78%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.58	Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	General Motors Co (GM) (CIK 0001467858)	edgar_8k 2026-06-04	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	AMERICAN TOWER CORP /MA/ (AMT) (CIK 0001053507)	edgar_8k 2026-06-04	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.58	AMERICAN TOWER CORP /MA/ (AMT) (CIK 0001053507)	edgar_8k 2026-06-04	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Will Kelsey Plum have the highest assists per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.58	Will Kelsey Plum have the highest assists per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-11-04	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.58	Will Jonah Heim win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-26	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 44m and 48m?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	235_027 Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.58	Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.58	Best Out-of-Context Quote at LessOnline 2026	manifold 2026-06-05	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	Will Minnesota ARML score breakdowns be posted before EOD June 10?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-06-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	SagnacAssisted Enhanced OTDR for Distributed Acoustic Sensing: A Standardized Benchmark and Engineering Evaluation Framework	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.58	Anchor PCA	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.58	Non-Negative Matrix Factorization for Event Data	arxiv 2026-06-04	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.58	A Komi-Yazva--Russian Parallel Corpus and Evaluation Protocol for Zero- and Few-Shot LLM Translation	arxiv 2026-06-04	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.58	IA-RAG: Interval-Algebra-Driven Temporal Reasoning for Dynamic Knowledge Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-04	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.58	NAVIRA: Decoupled Stochastic Remasking for Masked Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.58	QO-Bench: Diagnosing Query-Operator-Preserving Retrieval over Typed Event Tuples	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.58	Gauge field flow for chiral gauge theories on a disk boundary	arxiv 2026-06-03	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.58	String dualities and wedge singularities	arxiv 2026-06-03	232_056 Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.58	String dualities and wedge singularities	arxiv 2026-06-03	239_032 Progress in AI will continue as series of overlapping S-curves Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.58	The Awada-Gibbons-Shaw Algebra in de Sitter Space and SUSY Breaking	arxiv 2026-06-03	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.58	FDA ANDA215332: OXCARBAZEPINE (OXCARBAZEPINE) — AUCTA	fda 2026-06-02	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	FDA NDA202293: FARXIGA (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — ASTRAZENECA AB	fda 2026-06-03	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.58	FDA ANDA218405: SITAGLIPTIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (SITAGLIPTIN, METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE) — MANKIND PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-05-21	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.58	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	What will Iker Torres Terrazas (MEX2) get at IMO 2026?	manifold 2026-06-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS, INC. (AAOI) (CIK 0001158114)	edgar_8k 2026-06-05	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.58	FDA NDA201848: HEPZATO (MELPHALAN HYDROCHLORIDE) — DELCATH SYSTEMS INC	fda 2026-05-28	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.58	Will Andrej Kramarić be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.58	Will Antoine Semenyo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	UrduMMLU: A Massive Multitask Benchmark for Urdu Language Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.58	EASE-TTT: Evidence-Aligned Selective Test-Time Training for Long-Context Question Answering	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.58	Beyond Skeletons: Learning Animation Directly from Driving Videos with Same2X Training Strategy	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.58	TargetSEC: Plug-and-Play In-the-Wild Speech Emotion Conversion via Arousal-Conditioned Latent Style Diffusion	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.58	The Capacity of Information-Theoretic Secure Aggregation in Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.58	An Adaptive Data cleaning Framework for Noisy Label Detection	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	CRAFT: A Unified Counterfactual Reasoning Framework for Tabular Question Answering and Fact Verification	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.58	Nonlinear sigma models, antiperiodic boundary conditions, spin chains, and 't Hooft anomalies	arxiv 2026-06-05	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.58	Spread: Knicks (-1.5)(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.58	Spread: Knicks (-9.5)(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	What will appear in the June 9, 2026 Nintendo Direct?	manifold 2026-06-08	COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	27%
0.58	What will be announced in tomorrow's Nintendo Direct? [Short Fuse] [Add Answers!]	manifold 2026-06-08	246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.58	🇸🇦KSA vs 🇺🇾URY [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇧🇪BEL vs 🇪🇬EGY [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇪🇸ESP vs 🇨🇻CPV [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇸🇪SWE vs 🇹🇳TUN [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇨🇮CIV vs 🇪🇨ECU [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇳🇱NED vs 🇯🇵JPN [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇩🇪GER vs 🇨🇼CUW [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇦🇺AUS vs 🇹🇷TUR [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇭🇹HAI vs 🇬🇧SCO [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇧🇷BRA vs 🇲🇦MAR [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇶🇦QAT vs 🇨🇭SUI [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇺🇸USA vs 🇵🇾PAR [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇨🇦CAN vs 🇧🇦BIH [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇲🇽MEX vs 🇿🇦RSA [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	Will any 2026 World Cup team advance through group stage with 0 wins?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-06-08	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	10x Genomics, Inc. (TXG) (CIK 0001770787)	edgar_8k 2026-06-08	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.58	FDA ANDA220709: DEFLAZACORT (DEFLAZACORT) — CARNEGIE	fda 2026-05-28	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	FDA BLA761460: DECNUPAZ (PIVEKIMAB SUNIRINE-PVZY) — ABBVIE INC	fda 2026-05-27	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	FDA ANDA209633: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — BRECKENRIDGE	fda 2026-06-03	246_035 Terafab pilot phase is $25B, yielding ~$4B/year revenue for Intel. Peter Diamandis	AI	51%
0.58	Spurs vs. Knicks(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.58	Will Tyreek Hill play for the Baltimore Ravens next?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-16	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	🇪🇬EGY vs 🇮🇷IRN [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇳🇿NZL vs 🇧🇪BEL [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇨🇻CPV vs 🇸🇦KSA [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇺🇾URY vs 🇪🇸ESP [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇸🇳SEN vs 🇮🇶IRQ [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇳🇴NOR vs 🇫🇷FRA [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇵🇾PAR vs 🇦🇺AUS [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇹🇷TUR vs 🇺🇸USA [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇯🇵JPN vs 🇸🇪SWE [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇹🇳TUN vs 🇳🇱NED [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇨🇼CUW vs 🇨🇮CIV [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇪🇨ECU vs 🇩🇪GER [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇿🇦RSA vs 🇰🇷KOR [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇨🇿CZE vs 🇲🇽MEX [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇬🇧SCO vs 🇧🇷BRA [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇲🇦MAR vs 🇭🇹HAI [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇧🇦BIH vs 🇶🇦QAT [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇨🇭SUI vs 🇨🇦CAN [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇨🇴COL vs 🇨🇩COD [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇵🇦PAN vs 🇭🇷CRO [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇬🇧ENG vs 🇬🇭GHA [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇵🇹POR vs 🇺🇿UZB [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇯🇴JOR vs 🇩🇿ALG [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇳🇴NOR vs 🇸🇳SEN [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇫🇷FRA vs 🇮🇶IRQ [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇦🇷ARG vs 🇦🇹AUT [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇳🇿NZL vs 🇪🇬EGY [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇺🇾URY vs 🇨🇻CPV [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇧🇪BEL vs 🇮🇷IRN [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇪🇸ESP vs 🇸🇦KSA [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇹🇳TUN vs 🇯🇵JPN [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇪🇨ECU vs 🇨🇼CUW [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇩🇪GER vs 🇨🇮CIV [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇳🇱NED vs 🇸🇪SWE [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇹🇷TUR vs 🇵🇾PAR [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇧🇷BRA vs 🇭🇹HAI [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇬🇧SCO vs 🇲🇦MAR [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇺🇸USA vs 🇦🇺AUS [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇲🇽MEX vs 🇰🇷KOR [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇨🇦CAN vs 🇶🇦QAT [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇨🇭SUI vs 🇧🇦BIH [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇨🇿CZE vs 🇿🇦RSA [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇺🇿UZB vs 🇨🇴COL [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇬🇭GHA vs 🇵🇦PAN [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇬🇧ENG vs 🇭🇷CRO [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇵🇹POR vs 🇨🇩COD [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇦🇹AUT vs 🇯🇴JOR [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇦🇷ARG vs 🇩🇿ALG [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇮🇶IRQ vs 🇳🇴NOR [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇫🇷FRA vs 🇸🇳SEN [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇮🇷IRN vs 🇳🇿NZL [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	Free Lottery (Hubble constant)(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-09	242_042 Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.58	Free Lottery (Hubble constant)(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-09	SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Mathematics	15%
0.58	🇰🇷KOR vs 🇨🇿CZE [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	A Finetuned SpeechLLM for Joint Multi-Granular L2 Assessment and Natural-Language Rationales	arxiv 2026-06-08	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.58	Structure-Aware Modeling of Multiple-Choice Questions Improves Automatic Difficulty Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_033 AI-powered mastery learning allows students to master traditional academics in merely 2 hours/day, achieving learning rates 2.3x faster than statistical models predict — freeing human educators to transition into 'Guides' focused on emotional support, ... MacKenzie Price	Education	66%
0.58	AbstRAG: Learning to Abstract for Retrieval Problems	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.58	In-Context Learning for the Imputation of Public Opinion Data with Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.58	NüshuVoice: Reviving the Voice of Endangered Nüshu with Pitch-Aware Text-to-Speech	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_005 Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~... Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	33%
0.58	Multilingual Fact-Checking at Scale: Fine-Tuned Compact Models vs LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-07	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.58	Certified spectral functions from lattice Monte Carlo data	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.58	Energy Transport in Randomly Coupled Quantum Systems: A Perturbative Approach	arxiv 2026-06-08	241_024 Heat dissipation and radiation issues in space data centers will be addressed Eric Schmidt	Space	54%
0.58	Fire at the Tip of the Throat: Hagedorn Phase after brane-antibrane inflation?	arxiv 2026-06-07	236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	35%
0.58	FDA ANDA218096: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — APOTEX	fda 2026-06-03	SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore	Semis/Products	71%
0.58	Spread: Knicks (-2.5)(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.58	Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.58	Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Best Out-of-Context Quote at SummerCamp 2026	manifold 2026-06-10	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.58	Will somebody perform an assassination attempt on Mark Zuckerberg before 2028?(market prob: 23%)	manifold 2026-06-10	235_023 Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis. Eric Schmidt	Energy	48%
0.58	Jet Lag: The Game Season Eighteen Truth Statements	manifold 2026-06-10	239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk	AI	47%
0.58	Will any major conference issue a ban on scheduling games with Texas Tech as a result of the Sorsby situation in 2026?(market prob: 49%)	manifold 2026-06-09	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.58	From Context-Aware to Conflict-Aware: Generalizing Contrastive Decoding for Knowledge Conflict in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.58	Bidirectional Random Projections	arxiv 2026-06-09	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.58	Structured Adaptive Tensor Prediction for Streaming Data	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.58	Small Data, Big Noise: Adversarial Training for Robust Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.58	Hand-centric Human-to-Robot Trajectory Transfer from Video Demonstrations via Open-World Contact Localization	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.58	Spacetime from Operator Algebras	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Testing F-theory GUTs with the Axiverse	arxiv 2026-06-08	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.58	FDA ANDA220458: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — APOTEX	fda 2026-06-03	SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore	Semis/Products	71%
0.58	facebookresearch/esm v1.0.3	github_release 2022-10-18	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.58	Will Iran close its airspace by June 12?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.58	Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	53%
0.58	US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will there be a large-scale riot in NYC after the NBA finals?(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-06-11	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.58	Donald Trump praise Allah again before 2027?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-06-11	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.58	How many more times will Trump publicly praise Allah in 2026?	manifold 2026-06-11	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.58	Where will Skubal be traded?	manifold 2026-06-11	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Lumen Technologies, Inc. (LUMN) (CIK 0000018926)	edgar_8k 2026-06-11	CMQ_038 Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to reduce 'time to first token' for long-context LLM inference. Micron	Semis/Memory	52%
0.58	Lumen Technologies, Inc. (LUMN) (CIK 0000018926)	edgar_8k 2026-06-10	CMQ_038 Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to reduce 'time to first token' for long-context LLM inference. Micron	Semis/Memory	52%
0.58	AMAZON COM INC (AMZN) (CIK 0001018724)	edgar_8k 2026-06-10	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.58	AMAZON COM INC (AMZN) (CIK 0001018724)	edgar_8k 2026-06-10	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	TERAWULF INC. (WULF) (CIK 0001083301)	edgar_8k 2026-06-10	246_036 Terafab will deliver 1 terawatt/year AI compute, 50x current global output of 20 gigawatt. Peter Diamandis	AI	46%
0.58	Quality Adaptive Angular Margin Learning for Respiratory Sound Classification	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.58	Pretrained self-supervised speech models can recognize unseen consonants	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.58	Hubs or Fringes: Pretraining Data Selection via Web Graph Centrality	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.58	A Data-Centric Framework for Detecting and Correcting Corrupted Labels	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Probabilistic Contrastive Pretraining for Multi-task ADME Property Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.58	I Understand How You Feel: Enhancing Deeper Emotional Support Through Multilingual Emotional Validation in Dialogue System	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.58	Fast-SDE: Efficient Single-Microphone Sound Source Distance Estimation in Reverberant Environments	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.58	Entanglement generation between field modes mediated by a fluctuating conducting wall	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_data_omc-0.1.0	github_release 2025-11-21	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.58	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_data_omol-0.1.1	github_release 2025-09-16	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.58	Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay?(market prob: 15%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	—	10%
0.58	Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan	Macro/Economy	72%
0.58	United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.58	United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.58	Best Out-of-Context Quote at Manifest 2026	manifold 2026-06-12	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.58	Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) (CIK 0001137789)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.58	AMAZON COM INC (AMZN) (CIK 0001018724)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.58	AMAZON COM INC (AMZN) (CIK 0001018724)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Heterogeneous LiDAR Early Fusion and Learned Re-Ranking Strategy for Robust Long-Term Place Recognition in Unstructured Environments	arxiv 2026-06-11	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.58	scLLM-DSC: LLM-Knowledge Enhanced Cross-Modal Deep Structural Clustering for Single-Cell RNA Sequencing	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.58	TimeROME-DLM: Temporal Causal Tracing and Low-Rank Inference-Time Knowledge Editing for Masked Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-11	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.58	Distributional Loss for Robust Classification	arxiv 2026-06-11	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.58	Feature-preserving Latent-EnKF for Data Assimilation of Flows with Shocks	arxiv 2026-06-10	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.58	Chiral Long-Range Order in three Euclidean Lattice Gross-Neveu Models	arxiv 2026-06-11	242_002 Long-term petawatt compute will come only from lunar mass drivers Peter Diamandis	Space	37%
0.58	Multi-entropy in heavy local quenches	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.5(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.58	Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5)(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5(market prob: 94%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Ibanez be in Brazil's Starting 11?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.58	Will the UzChess Cup (Masters division) go to tiebreaks?(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-06-13	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Which scores will happen at the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup?	manifold 2026-06-13	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	FDA ANDA203047: VALACYCLOVIR HYDROCHLORIDE (VALACYCLOVIR HYDROCHLORIDE) — HETERO LABS LTD V	fda 2026-06-10	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.58	Will Federico Valverde be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.58	Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.58	Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-14	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.58	Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.58	How far will the Knicks go in the 2026-27 NBA season?	manifold 2026-06-15	234_033 David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months David Holz	Robotics	23%
0.58	Will the Fed cut the federal funds rate at its July 2026 FOMC meeting?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-06-14	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.58	Talen Energy Corp (TLN) (CIK 0001622536)	edgar_8k 2026-06-15	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.58	AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) (CIK 0001780312)	edgar_8k 2026-06-15	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	MOSAIC CO (MOS) (CIK 0001285785)	edgar_8k 2026-06-15	SEM_020 Nvidia preemptively reserved 800,000-850,000 TSMC wafers for 2026 — 8x SMIC's entire advanced-process capacity. Nvidia (All-In Podcast analysis)	Semis	74%
0.58	huggingface/transformers v5.12.1	github_release 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.1.1	github_release 2020-03-08	229_039 Figure will integrate additional sensors (infrared, ultraviolet, etc.) into future humanoids. Brett Adcock	Robotics	28%
0.58	Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.58	Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5(market prob: 94%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	236_025 Suburban housing prices will fall as white collar workers lose jobs and sell homes Andrew Yang	Real Estate	42%
0.58	Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5(market prob: 27%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5(market prob: 75%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS, INC. (AAOI) (CIK 0001158114)	edgar_8k 2026-06-16	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.58	EQUIFAX INC (EFX) (CIK 0000033185)	edgar_8k 2026-06-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORP (CINF) (CIK 0000020286)	edgar_8k 2026-06-16	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.58	TuneJury: An Open Metric for Improving Music Generation Preference Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.58	Decoupling Semantics from Distortions: Multi-Scale Two-Stream Vision-Language Alignment for AI-Generated Image Quality Assessment	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.58	Propagating Structural Guidance: Synthesizing Fluorescein Angiography from Fundus Images and Sparse OCT Scans	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.58	LUCID: Learned Undersampling-Adaptive Consistency-Guided Inference with Deterministic Flow Matching for Sparse-View CT Reconstruction	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	PVminerLLM2: Improving Structured Extraction of Patient Voice via Preference Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-15	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.58	MAGE-RAG: Multigranular Adaptive Graph Evidence for Agentic Multimodal RAG in Long-Document QA	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Koshur Diacritizer: A Byte-Level Sequence-to-Sequence Model for Kashmiri Diacritic Restoration	arxiv 2026-06-14	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.58	Latent space mapping of interpretable structural coordinates from stochastic single-molecule signals	arxiv 2026-06-15	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.58	Closing the Approximation Gap in Simulation-free Latent SDEs	arxiv 2026-06-15	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.58	The BD-LSC Dataset: Facilitating the Benchmarking of Models for Lexical Semantic Change Detection in Slang and Standard Usage	arxiv 2026-06-15	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.58	TMASC: Transmasculine Attitude and Speech Corpus	arxiv 2026-06-15	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	The supergravity dual of a finite duality cascade	arxiv 2026-06-15	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Generalized Unimodular Gravity and Cosmological Perturbations	arxiv 2026-06-15	230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.58	Will Pedri be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-14	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Starmer out by the end of this week(market prob: 1%)	manifold 2026-06-17	248_004 Launching 40,000 V3 Starlinks requires only 3 Starship launches per week over 3 years. Peter Diamandis	Space	58%
0.58	Will silver hit $75/oz this week by close of market on Friday?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-06-16	AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	37%
0.58	Plug-and-Adapt: Multimodal Coreference Resolution at First Sight with a Pretrained Alignment Model	arxiv 2026-06-16	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.58	Graph Neural Networks for Semi-Supervised Image Classification with Multi-Feature Aggregation	arxiv 2026-06-16	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.58	Geometry-Consistent Endoscopic Representations for Image-Guided Navigation via Structured Foundation Model Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.58	Turning music identification into a neural forward pass	arxiv 2026-06-15	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.58	PyPeakRankR: Reproducible Peak-Level Feature Extraction for Regulatory Element Ranking	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Single-valued polylogarithms for higher genera	arxiv 2026-06-16	246_034 Thousands of Medev-like one-person unicorns will be created, following power law. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	A Lindbladian for holographic Brownian motion	arxiv 2026-06-16	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	A Double--Scaling Large--$d$ Saddle of BFSS/BMN Matrix Quantum Mechanics	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Derivation of height field theory for the two-dimensional classical dimer model from a Grassmann-integral representation	arxiv 2026-06-15	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.58	FDA ANDA208869: RUXOLITINIB (RUXOLITINIB) — APOTEX INC	fda 2026-06-09	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.58	Will Maikel Garcia lead the MLB in doubles for the 2026 regular season?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5(market prob: 78%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.58	Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.58	Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Will Cameron Young win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2025-11-25	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.58	US/Israel strike on Iran by end of 2030?(market prob: 58%)	manifold 2026-06-18	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.58	Serve Robotics Inc. /DE/ (SERV) (CIK 0001832483)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	TK08 Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)	—	22%
0.58	Talen Energy Corp (TLN) (CIK 0001622536)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.58	NextDecade Corp (NEXT) (CIK 0001612720)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.58	DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. (DOCN) (CIK 0001582961)	edgar_8k 2026-06-17	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.58	DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. (DOCN) (CIK 0001582961)	edgar_8k 2026-06-17	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.58	SCAN: Enhance Time Series Anomaly Detection via Multi-Scale Neighborhood-Centered Clustering	arxiv 2026-06-17	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.58	Complementary Attention Head Pruning for Efficient Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-17	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.58	Shrinkage priors for Bayesian Substitute Confounders	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.58	Urdu Katib Handwritten Dataset: A Historical Document Dataset for Offline Urdu Handwritten Text Recognition with CRNN-Based Baseline Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	RegMix-D: Dynamic Data Mixing via Proxy Training Trajectories	arxiv 2026-06-17	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.58	Technical Report for ICRA 2026 GOOSE 2D Fine-Grained Semantic Segmentation Challenge: Leveraging DINOv3 for Robust Outdoor Scene Understanding in Field Robotics	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.58	Bubble wall velocity and nucleation rates in inverse holographic phase transitions	arxiv 2026-06-17	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.58	ASEP/DSSYK duality and strange correlator	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.58	Exact propagating Dirac wave packets in an attractive Coulomb-like potential	arxiv 2026-06-16	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.58	Universal entanglement probes of topological order and locally-achiral manifolds	arxiv 2026-06-16	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.58	Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.58	Will Desire Doue be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Market resolves to whoever add the most liquidity to this market	manifold 2026-06-19	241_059 Government will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problems Peter Diamandis	Energy	54%
0.58	Will Sam altman have visible grey hair by eoy2028?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-06-19	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.58	IHUBERT: Vector-Based Semantic Deduplication and Domain-Balanced Pretraining for Persian Resources	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.58	SL-S4Wave: Self-Supervised Learning of Physiological Waveforms with Structured State Space Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.58	FineREX: Fine-Tuned NER-RE for Human Smuggling Knowledge Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.58	Clusters are All You Need: Pre-Training the Tsetlin Machine with Semantic Clusters from Language Models for Interpretability	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.58	On the Renormalization Group Flow of Active Flocks	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Fortuity beyond counting: an explicit construction	arxiv 2026-06-18	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.58	Constraining ADD black holes at the LHC with $\sqrt{s} = 14$ TeV	arxiv 2026-06-18	242_002 Long-term petawatt compute will come only from lunar mass drivers Peter Diamandis	Space	37%
0.58	Reheating as a variational probe of cosmological observables	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.58	Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 15%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 15%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	🇨🇩COD vs 🇺🇿UZB [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-20	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇨🇴COL vs 🇵🇹POR [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-20	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇭🇷CRO vs 🇬🇭GHA [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-20	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	🇵🇦PAN vs 🇬🇧ENG [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-20	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	2026 FIFA World Cup: Will exactly 2 knockout matches be decided by penalty shootouts?(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-06-19	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Spread: Portugal (-2.5)(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.58	New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-14	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.58	Spread: England (-1.5)(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock	Robotics	20%
0.58	🇯🇴JOR vs 🇦🇷ARG [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-21	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	Free Lottery (dark matter & banana)(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-06-21	238_038 Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-08	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Astralis vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%