CMQ_038predictionSemis/MemoryMicron-HBM4

Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to reduce 'time to first token' for long-context LLM inference.

Predictor: Micron

Prior probability

85.0%

Current probability

52.0%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

5/5

Signal quality

Resolution

hit

Window

2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31

Edges in / out

1 / 0

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to reduce 'time to first token' for long-context LLM inference. | Micron HBM4 ramp + design wins

Key catalyst: Micron HBM4 ramp + design wins

Watch events: Micron HBM4 revenue trajectory; design-win disclosures.

Resolution evidence

Status: hit

Micron F/Q2 2026 earnings commentary confirmed HBM4 HVM on schedule; design wins disclosed.

Predictor: Micron

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.583

Brier

0.0225

excellent

Hits / Misses

1 / 0

of 1 resolved

Hit rate

100.0%

Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Micron is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 52.0%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 3 fired ✓ · 2 overdue ⏱ · 1 pending

2026-03-01overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
2026-03-16hitMicron announces HBM4 36GB HVM at GTC 2026
How: Micron formally announces HBM4 36GB 12H high-volume production at GTC 2026 with 2.8 TB/s+ bandwidth specification
Source: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/03/16/3256773/14450/en/Micron-in-High-Volume-Production-of-HBM4-Designed-for-NVIDIA-Vera-Rubin-PCIe-Gen6-SSD-and-SOCAMM2.htmlconf 99%
Notes: HIT — Micron announced HBM4 36GB 12H volume production with 2.3x bandwidth and 20% power efficiency vs HBM3E.
2026-04-06hitMicron begins volume shipment of HBM4 36GB
How: Micron confirms volume shipment (first revenue-recognized units) of HBM4 36GB 12H module to customers
Source: https://evertiq.com/news/2026-04-06-micron-begins-volume-shipment-of-hbm4-36gb-12hconf 99%
2026-04-29overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
2026-06-27pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
2026-04-01hitMicron samples 48GB 16H HBM4 to customers
How: Micron ships HBM4 48GB 16H samples (33% capacity uplift over 36GB 12H) to lead customers
Source: https://www.storagereview.com/news/micron-begins-volume-production-of-hbm4-pcie-gen6-ssd-and-192gb-socamm2-for-nvidia-vera-rubinconf 95%
2026-08-25pendingMicron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to reduce 'time to first token' for long-c
2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingHBM4 ships in Nvidia Vera Rubin GPU systems
How: Nvidia formally launches Vera Rubin platform with Micron HBM4 36GB included in shipping systems
Source: https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/micron-enters-high-volume-production-of-hbm4-for-nvidia-vera-rubinconf 85%
2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingMicron HBM4 design-win share reported in earnings
How: Micron quarterly earnings discloses HBM4 design wins span Nvidia + at least one other major customer (AMD MI400 or hyperscaler ASIC)
Source: Micron 10-Q filings; investor callsconf 70%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 52%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z52.0%-3.6pp

Network propagation: 55.6% → 52.0%

4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8

LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z55.6%-6.9pp

Network propagation: 62.5% → 55.6%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z62.5%-12.2pp

Network propagation: 74.7% → 62.5%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

intake_event_update2026-05-03T02:40:54Z74.7%+7.1pp

intake:515b84c4-6b29-4d57-8dd6-d41dac0675ec bayesian_v2 inside=0.747 blend=0.747 LLR=0.347 κ=0.50 no_blend

Raw metadata

{
  "trf": 0.6645281917099105,
  "kappa": 0.5,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Micron",
  "total_llr": 0.6931471805599453,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 0.7385075732023592,
  "bayes_factor": "1.4:1 favoring",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.6766694174197337,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": 0.6931471805599453,
      "kappa": 0.5,
      "label": "This is close to resolution-grade evidence because the claim largely matches Micron's own product announcement: HBM4, 36",
      "adjusted_llr": 0.3465735902799726
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "intake_event_update",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 1,
  "outside_weight": 0,
  "posterior_prob": 0.7474543414621303,
  "evidence_origin": "daily_intake",
  "llm_suggestions": [
    {
      "polarity": "corroborates",
      "status_change": "hit",
      "evidence_strength": "moderate",
      "delta_prob_suggestion": 0.27
    }
  ],
  "posterior_logit": 1.085081163482332,
  "predictor_brier": null,
  "evidence_doc_ids": [],
  "inside_posterior": 0.7474543414621303,
  "blended_posterior": 0.7474543414621303,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": 0.3465735902799726,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 0
}

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z67.7%-14.6pp

Network propagation: 82.2% → 67.7%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z82.2%-2.8pp

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.822 blend=0.822 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend

Raw metadata

{
  "trf": 0.6650500679109432,
  "kappa": 0.5,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Micron",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 1.7346010553881064,
  "bayes_factor": "1.2:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.85,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.5,
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.2027325540540822,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-01",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "prior_prob",
  "inside_weight": 0.5344649524623397,
  "outside_weight": 0.4655350475376603,
  "posterior_prob": 0.8222795337895789,
  "posterior_logit": 1.5318685013340243,
  "predictor_brier": null,
  "inside_posterior": 0.8222795337895789,
  "blended_posterior": 0.8222795337895789,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.2027325540540822,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 0
}

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

No propagation data yet. Run inference/.venv/bin/python scripts/ops/run_loopy_belief_propagation.py on the droplet, or wait for the Sunday 02:00 UTC weekly cron.

Prerequisites (1)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
correlate	S_COMPUTE_10GW_2028	Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028	compute_scale	—

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
No dependents

Validations (2)

Resolution events

Observed at	Status	By	Notes
2026-05-03	hit	intake:515b84c4-6b29-4d57-8dd6-d41dac0675ec	This is close to resolution-grade evidence because the claim largely matches Micron's own product announcement: HBM4, 36GB, and >2.8 TB/s in high-volume production. I would treat the core factual component as effectively hit.
2026-04-29	partial	thesis_timeline_v1.0_import	Micron F/Q2 2026 earnings commentary confirmed HBM4 HVM on schedule; design wins disclosed.

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.673	gdelt	micron technology growth exploding why 135145048.html	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-30
0.650	arxiv	Ringmaster LMO: Asynchronous Linear Minimization Oracle Momentum Method	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-18
0.642	arxiv	LLMCodec: Adapting Video Codecs for Efficient Weight Compression of Large Language Models	—	mentions	pending	2026-06-04
0.633	arxiv	Relay Buffer Independent Communication over Pooled HBM for Efficient MoE Inference on Ascend	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-07
0.633	gdelt	da davidson initiates micron buy 160024095.html	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-30
0.619	arxiv	WindowQuant: Mixed-Precision KV Cache Quantization based on Window-Level Similarity for VLMs Inference Optimization	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-04
0.614	arxiv	High-Rate Quantized Matrix Multiplication II	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-13
0.599	arxiv	MARR: Module-Adaptive Residual Reconstruction for Low-Bit Post-Training Quantization	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-18
0.585	gdelt	article a4fb8cb4 f8c6 547e ba1e 5e2d3623c573.html	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-30
0.576	edgar_8k	Lumen Technologies, Inc. (LUMN) (CIK 0000018926)	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-14

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "36GB / 2.8 TB/s",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Firm",
  "context": "Specific product spec tied to inference-optimization narrative; positions Micron as the fastest first-token memory vendor.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "conv_cues": "HVM announcement; specific specs",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-01",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Micron announces HBM4 36GB HVM at GTC 2026",
      "notes": "HIT — Micron announced HBM4 36GB 12H volume production with 2.3x bandwidth and 20% power efficiency vs HBM3E.",
      "source": "https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/03/16/3256773/14450/en/Micron-in-High-Volume-Production-of-HBM4-Designed-for-NVIDIA-Vera-Rubin-PCIe-Gen6-SSD-and-SOCAMM2.html",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/03/16/3256773/14450/en/Micron-in-High-Volume-Production-of-HBM4-Designed-for-NVIDIA-Vera-Rubin-PCIe-Gen6-SSD-and-SOCAMM2.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-16",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Micron formally announces HBM4 36GB 12H high-volume production at GTC 2026 with 2.8 TB/s+ bandwidth specification"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Micron begins volume shipment of HBM4 36GB",
      "source": "https://evertiq.com/news/2026-04-06-micron-begins-volume-shipment-of-hbm4-36gb-12h",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://evertiq.com/news/2026-04-06-micron-begins-volume-shipment-of-hbm4-36gb-12h",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-06",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-06",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Micron confirms volume shipment (first revenue-recognized units) of HBM4 36GB 12H module to customers"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-07T22:13:01.009021+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-06-27",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Micron samples 48GB 16H HBM4 to customers",
      "source": "https://www.storagereview.com/news/micron-begins-volume-production-of-hbm4-pcie-gen6-ssd-and-192gb-socamm2-for-nvidia-vera-rubin",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.storagereview.com/news/micron-begins-volume-production-of-hbm4-pcie-gen6-ssd-and-192gb-socamm2-for-nvidia-vera-rubin",
      "expected_date": "2026-08-16",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-04-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Micron ships HBM4 48GB 16H samples (33% capacity uplift over 36GB 12H) to lead customers"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Micron has 
... (truncated)