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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.61	Will Dogecoin reach 106% of its current price in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-14	247_046 AI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025 Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.61	Will Manifold successfully predict the next pandemic at least 2 weeks in advance?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-05-18	236_017 Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.61	Will Manifold successfully predict the next pandemic at least 2 weeks in advance?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-05-18	AI_002 Models matching the collective cognitive capacity of 'a country of geniuses in a datacenter' — acting simultaneously across all domains — could arrive as early as 2026 or 2027. Dario Amodei	AI	16%
0.61	Will Manifold successfully predict the next pandemic at least 2 weeks in advance?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-05-18	CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei	AI	28%
0.61	Claude 5 released by End of September 2026?(market prob: 78%)	manifold 2026-05-18	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.61	Will I get any money again from manifold this year?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-18	244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.61	What award will I get on the 2026 AMM?	manifold 2026-05-18	SPC_022 '2026 will be for AI in science what 2025 was for AI in software engineering' — a transition from AI as coding assistant to acting as scientific sparring partner: generating novel hypotheses, analyzing vast datasets, and dramatically accelerating R&D c... Kevin Weil	AI	41%
0.61	What will happen as a result of the Delaney Hall protests?	manifold 2026-05-30	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.61	Will Kalshi be operational and legal in the US on January 1, 2030?(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-05-27	SEM_045 Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forcing total organizational transformations. Salim Ismail	Economy/Org	54%
0.61	Will Dogecoin reach 106% of its current price in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-05-25	247_046 AI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025 Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.61	which will happen first? (Codeforces Rating)	manifold 2026-05-24	SEM_036 World-class AI programmers will appear within 1-2 years (by 2027-2028). Eric Schmidt	AI/Cognition	70%
0.61	Brazil 2026 Election: Will the US announce a new tariff targeting Brazilian products before Brazil’s 2026 election?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-06-01	FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan	Macro/Economy	72%
0.61	Will Sydney Metro exceed 70,000,000 trips taken in 2026?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-30	243_003 By 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else in the world Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	46%
0.61	Will Softbank Group Corp. (9984.t) close at over 8000 on Jun11?(market prob: 54%)	manifold 2026-05-29	INF_040 Massive financial conglomerates will execute historic mergers to control underlying DC real-estate and fiber-optic assets: SoftBank's move to acquire DigitalBridge for its approximately $108 billion in infrastructure assets signals real-estate and fibe... SoftBank	Markets/Stocks	40%
0.61	Will the June 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI be at least 50.0?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-06-02	S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027	energy_grid_expansion	40%
0.61	Which country will win the 2026 Chess Olympiad (Open event)?	manifold 2026-06-04	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 754 : Suggest the best expression(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-05	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.61	Will US CPI inflation (CPI-U, 12-month, June 2026) exceed 4.0%?(market prob: 73%)	manifold 2026-06-05	TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)	—	30%
0.61	US Gas Price on June 22 2026	manifold 2026-06-06	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.61	Who will win the 2026 Classic Tetris World Championship (CTWC)?	manifold 2026-06-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Manifold Markets says I have 249 Traders right now. By June 12th PDT (California Time) I will have 650.(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-06-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Almost Certainly Free Mana: All Options Resolves to YES Except Last Traded Option (you can add answers)	manifold 2026-06-09	242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.61	U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-06-09	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.61	Will "Estimating No-CoT Task-Completion Time Horizo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-11	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.61	Will a former pornstar become US president before China overtakes the US in GDP?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-04-29	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.61	Will "Protecting Cognitive Integrity: Our internal ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-04-26	AI_004 AI will be 'smarter than the smartest human' by 2026, driven by fully automated recursive self-improvement loops compounding cognitive gains without human intervention. Elon Musk	AI	17%
0.61	What will be the total prize in the third Manifold Prize Drawing?	manifold 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Intel stock trade above $90 in May, 2026?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-04-23	CMQ_045 Agentic AI will create additional CPU market space of $10B-$100B by 2030, potentially driving total global server CPU market well beyond $100B. Morgan Stanley	Semis	43%
0.61	Will Build a Bear outperform the SP500 for the year of 2027?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-04-23	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Red vs. Blue button except prediction market	manifold 2026-04-30	246_030 DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.61	Red vs. Blue button except prediction market	manifold 2026-04-30	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.61	Will US average gas price reach $4.690 in May 2026?(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-04-30	235_022 US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year. Peter Diamandis	Energy	53%
0.61	Bitcoin $84K in May?(market prob: 75%)	manifold 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Google I/O 2026 Prop Bets!	manifold 2026-05-01	246_005 OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.61	Will a rover from Earth land on the moon Ganymede by EOY 2046?(market prob: 77%)	manifold 2026-05-02	232_047 Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. Elon Musk	Space	30%
0.61	How active will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season be?	manifold 2026-05-02	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.61	What award will I get at the 2026 AMM?	manifold 2026-05-03	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will Vedanta Aluminium (Vedanta Limited)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-05-04	FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Energy	39%
0.61	Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?(market prob: 76%)	manifold 2026-05-04	FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Energy	39%
0.61	Will Alcoa Corporation's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-04	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.61	@100Anonymous vs @Jack1 Masters May 2026	manifold 2026-05-04	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.61	Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?(market prob: 81%)	manifold 2026-05-05	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.61	will [redacted] occur as of saturday(market prob: 83%)	manifold 2026-05-06	248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail	Robotics	34%
0.61	US Strategic Petroleum Reserve - lowest value in 2026	manifold 2026-05-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	What award will I get at the 2026 AMM?	manifold 2026-05-07	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will anyone get me to post 🌀 in the comments on this market [Convince the Machine #9](market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-05-06	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.61	Will SPY be above 720.65 on market close May 8th?(market prob: 82%)	manifold 2026-05-03	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will it still be true in 2030 that "traffic deaths have not gone down in any city where Waymo is operating"?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-08	234_040 Elon predicts FSD and Starlink may reverse urbanization in America Elon Musk	Real Estate	38%
0.61	Will I use Hermes Agent for more than a week?(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-05-09	241_013 Agents from incompatible vendors combined will produce unpredictable effects Eric Schmidt	AI	45%
0.61	price of silver at the end of may?	manifold 2026-05-11	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.61	Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $100 on May 21, 2026?(market prob: 89%)	manifold 2026-05-12	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.61	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? [Polymarket](market prob: 1%)	manifold 2026-05-13	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.61	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 153(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-14	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.61	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 153(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-14	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.61	Will the global refined copper market record a deficit of 500,000+ tonnes for full-year 2026?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-05-14	CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley	Macro/Economy	67%
0.61	Will Dogecoin reach 106% of its current price in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-14	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.61	How many people will be regularised in Spain in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-12	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.61	Will "Maybe I was too harsh on deep learning theory..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-11	247_012 The bar for AI startups will rise to require being recursively self-improving Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	How much additional mana will be printed by the 2x trader bonuses in 7 days? (total trader bonuses divided by 2)	manifold 2026-05-15	238_024 AI token speed will jump from ~50 tokens/sec to ~1,000 tokens/sec (Cerebras) Emad Mostaque	AI	37%
0.61	Will the Iran / US war resume before May 22nd?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-14	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.61	Will there be 100+ HackerNews stories posted in 24h?(market prob: 98%)	manifold 2026-05-17	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will SPY close above $750 on Monday, May 18, 2026?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-16	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.61	Will SPY close below $720 on Friday, May 29, 2026?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-05-17	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.61	Ebola pandemic in 2026?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-05-19	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.61	Robots reliably do my laundry by?	manifold 2026-05-19	239_023 AI and robotics are the only way to solve US budget deficit and avoid bankruptcy Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	41%
0.61	Will more than 25,000 games be released on Steam this year?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-19	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.61	Will more than 25,000 games be released on Steam this year?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-19	248_031 Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	39%
0.61	Will BTC-USD close below $90,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 95%)	manifold 2026-05-18	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.61	What will (top 1% 2026 AMC 12A) + 10 * (top 5% 2027 AIME I) be?	manifold 2026-05-28	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.61	$10m prize for 100m record claimed in 2027(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-05-28	236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	53%
0.61	Will Kalshi be operational and legal in the US on January 1, 2030?(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-05-27	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will I complete Quicktakeshaven before August 2026(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-26	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.61	Will Dogecoin reach 106% of its current price in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-05-25	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.61	How many unique viewers will this market end with?	manifold 2026-05-30	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.61	Will my YouTube Channel have more than 15 subscribers at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-06-02	232_006 YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content. Peter Diamandis	Media/Ads	51%
0.61	Will Sydney Metro exceed 70,000,000 trips taken in 2026?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-30	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.61	Will ETH be more or less volatile than BTC this week?	manifold 2026-05-29	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	Will there be a live action planecrash adaptation before 2029? (Including in development)(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-06-03	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.61	Best METR 80% Time Horizon before October 2026	manifold 2026-06-04	COD_SPC_007 NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist Codex Research Pack	Space	43%
0.61	At the end of the next 30 days, starting from today (June 7 2026), how many blocks will be broken on mysterybox.art ?	manifold 2026-06-06	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.61	Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks before 2027?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-06-07	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.61	can you just balenciaga it? Before 2027(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-08	248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.61	Almost Certainly Free Mana: All Options Resolves to YES Except Last Traded Option (you can add answers)	manifold 2026-06-09	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.61	Almost Certainly Free Mana: All Options Resolves to YES Except Last Traded Option (you can add answers)	manifold 2026-06-09	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.61	Will a Claude Fable model be released Tuesday June 9th?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-06-09	230_003 AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Will a Claude Fable model be released Tuesday June 9th?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-06-09	246_029 Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	54%
0.61	Best April 29 Earnings?	manifold 2026-04-29	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.61	Will "Protecting Cognitive Integrity: Our internal ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-04-26	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.61	Anthropic Removes Claude Code From Every Plan Except Max in 2026(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-04-23	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will Build a Bear outperform the SP500 for the year of 2027?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-04-23	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.61	Will US average gas price reach $4.690 in May 2026?(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-04-30	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	35%
0.61	Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $100 on May 11, 2026?(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-05-01	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.61	Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $100 on May 11, 2026?(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-05-01	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.61	Will Android 17 be officially released to consumers by October 31, 2026?(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-05-01	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.61	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 845(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-02	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	US Average Gas Price on May 3 2026?	manifold 2026-05-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Will Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-05-04	CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei	AI	41%
0.61	Will Alcoa Corporation's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-05-04	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.61	Bitcoin $85K in May?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-05-05	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.61	Will anyone trick me into sending them exactly M$1000 via managram? [Convince the Machine #10](market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-05-06	242_042 Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	In which 2026 month will Firefox hit Peak Cyber?	manifold 2026-05-08	SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk	AI/AGI	19%
0.61	Will any major USD stablecoin (USDT/USDC/PYUSD) face a federal regulatory enforcement action by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-08	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.61	Who will win Startup World Cup Silicon Valley Regional 2026?	manifold 2026-05-08	229_012 Every major tech company in the world will enter the humanoid robotics space. Brett Adcock	Robotics	38%
0.61	Will this self-referential market reach 50 unique traders before June 1, 2026?(market prob: 23%)	manifold 2026-05-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will any top-20 US or Canadian brokerage publicly endorse an open investing-agent standard by the end of 2027?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-11	SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. Kevin Weil	AI/Agents	74%
0.61	Will I be promoted to Mana Gold by 12 am May 31, 2026?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-05-12	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Oil Price (WTI) today?	manifold 2026-05-13	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.61	Will the Bun rewrite in Rust stick?(market prob: 79%)	manifold 2026-05-14	237_019 Code generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript instead of Rust for memory safety. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Will CISA add at least 25 vulnerabilities to the KEV catalog in May 2026?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-05-14	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will Dan complain about the cost of NYC unprompted?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-16	234_039 Distant spectacular real estate will go up in value, not inner city Dave Blundin	Real Estate	50%
0.61	Which World Leaders will leave office before EOY 2027? (Add Answers)	manifold 2026-05-19	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.61	Will the Strait of Hormuz fully reopen to commercial traffic before June 10, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-05-28	246_007 SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	35%
0.61	Next James Bond officially announced before end of June 2026?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-06-01	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.61	By how much will Colombia's 10Y bond yield drop when bond markets open after 5/31/26?	manifold 2026-06-01	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.61	Will Ethereum trade below $1700 in June?(market prob: 80%)	manifold 2026-06-03	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.61	Will Ethereum trade below $1700 in June?(market prob: 80%)	manifold 2026-06-03	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Will Manifold change share quest criteria in June?	manifold 2026-06-03	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Resolution criteria mandatory for Yes/No markets on 09/09/2026?(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-06-06	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.61	Will AMM 2026 release scores next week?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-06	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.61	What will be winning score in ARC's white-box estimation challenge (warm-up round)?	manifold 2026-06-09	239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk	AI	47%
0.61	Will June 2026 core PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-10	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Starmer out before December?(market prob: 78%)	manifold 2026-06-12	248_001 Apple will soon pit Amazon (Global Star) against SpaceX Starlink as dual satellite vendors. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	42%
0.61	Best April 29 Earnings?	manifold 2026-04-29	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.61	Do you like 4% odds?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-04-27	244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.61	Will there be a 6.7 or greater magnitude earthquake in San Francisco in 2026?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-04-27	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.61	Will ICE be renamed as NICE in 2026?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-04-27	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Tesla Q1 26 Earnings Claims Prop Bets	manifold 2026-04-24	240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	Will GOOG have the largest market cap by EOY 2026?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-04-30	INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	48%
0.61	Will Apple announce Gemini-powered Siri features at WWDC 2026 (June 8-12)?(market prob: 73%)	manifold 2026-05-01	IND_011 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... Jason Calacanis	Macro/Economy	58%
0.61	Sp500 closes below 7,000 or above 7,500 next?	manifold 2026-05-01	242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	Will Brent Crude Oil close above $115 on May 8th, 2026?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	How much mana will be spent buying tickets for the first $100 draw?	manifold 2026-05-02	231_031 OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	58%
0.61	Will the Fredie Mac US 30-year fixed-rate average drop below 5.75% before Nov 1, 2026.(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-03	TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)	—	30%
0.61	Will Jesus Christ Return before the 2028 election?	manifold 2026-05-05	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.61	US Gas Price hits $4(NO) or $5(YES) Next?(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-05-06	246_030 DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.61	Will abhishaike mahajan ever win the nobel prize?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-04	231_008 AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.61	Will it still be true in 2030 that "traffic deaths have not gone down in any city where Waymo is operating"?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-08	FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard	Media/Ads	50%
0.61	Will it still be true in 2030 that "traffic deaths have not gone down in any city where Waymo is operating"?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-08	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.61	Will any major USD stablecoin (USDT/USDC/PYUSD) face a federal regulatory enforcement action by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-08	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Will Nord Pool 2027 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-04	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.61	Will this self-referential market reach 50 unique traders before June 1, 2026?(market prob: 23%)	manifold 2026-05-11	235_027 Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.61	Will any US brokerage support a third-party-operated user identity by the end of 2027?(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-05-11	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.61	Will any NFL team(s) use significant amounts of AI generated content in their 2026 schedule release video?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-05-11	232_060 We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	44%
0.61	Will the USD to IDR rate reach IDR 17,845 before 17th August 2026?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-12	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will the USD to IDR rate reach IDR 17,845 before 17th August 2026?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-12	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.61	Oil Price (WTI) today?	manifold 2026-05-13	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.61	How much additional mana will be printed by the 2x trader bonuses in 7 days? (total trader bonuses divided by 2)	manifold 2026-05-15	CMQ_028 NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026). Jensen Huang	Semis	72%
0.61	Will Apple's WWDC26 Keynote transcript mention MCP or Model Context Protocol?(market prob: 49%)	manifold 2026-05-14	246_029 Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	54%
0.61	What will my custom Zetamac score (average of 5) be in a week?	manifold 2026-05-16	234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead	AI	41%
0.61	Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision in August?	manifold 2026-05-16	IND_021 February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... Jack Dorsey	Labor/Jobs	74%
0.61	Will I be a finalist in the 2026 ACX book review contest?(market prob: 23%)	manifold 2026-05-16	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will Chainlink go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 55%)	manifold 2026-05-18	247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google	AI	46%
0.61	Will I get catch an illness before Manifest 2026?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-05-19	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.61	Ebola pandemic in 2026?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-05-19	241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.61	Ebola pandemic in 2026?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-05-19	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.61	Will BTC-USD close above $100,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-05-18	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.61	By when will New Glenn next launch?	manifold 2026-05-29	INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	48%
0.61	Will Michael Levin be awarded the Nobel Prize?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-05-27	234_007 Kevin Weil aims for next 100 Nobel Prizes to be issued in partnership with AI Kevin Weil	AI	38%
0.61	What makes people happy? [Resolves to LLM deep research]	manifold 2026-05-25	AI_035 In a world where superintelligent AI can perform all economically valuable, scientific, and creative tasks, humanity faces profound existential questions regarding its 'meaning of life' — potentially leaving humans without a primary teleological purpos... Nick Bostrom	Other	37%
0.61	Will Bitcoin's biggest single-hour move this week be up or down?	manifold 2026-05-29	247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor	Crypto	48%
0.61	Starmer out before August?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-06-01	248_001 Apple will soon pit Amazon (Global Star) against SpaceX Starlink as dual satellite vendors. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	42%
0.61	Will my YouTube Channel have more than 15 subscribers at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-06-02	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.61	Will Trump's Anti-Weaponization Fund survive its initial challenges(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-06-01	CYB_026 The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely on proprietary algorithms and compute concentration has been heavily challenged — rapid uncontrollable diffusion of highly capable open-source models (De... Leopold Aschenbrenner	Geopolitics	77%
0.61	Will there be a live action planecrash adaptation before 2029? (Including in development)(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-06-03	229_008 By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). Brett Adcock	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.61	Will I comment on this market? [Creator won't bet](market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-06-01	247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross	Crypto	26%
0.61	Silver price above 90.000 in June 2026(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-06-04	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.61	US Gas Price on June 22 2026	manifold 2026-06-06	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	US Gas Price on June 22 2026	manifold 2026-06-06	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.61	Manifold Markets says I have 249 Traders right now. By June 12th PDT (California Time) I will have 650.(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-06-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Will May 2026 headline CPI rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-06-03	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Will AMM 2026 release scores next week?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will the June 2026 ISM Services PMI be at least 50.0?(market prob: 87%)	manifold 2026-06-03	FUT_002 Mean expert estimate for AGI collapsed from 50-year horizon to ~5 years over a 4-year window leading to mid-2020s — placing expected AGI arrival firmly in 2029-2031 window per Metaculus + 80000 Hours aggregate tracking; quantitative forecasters now ali... Superforecaster Community	AI	40%
0.61	Will it rain at manifest 2026?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-06-09	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.61	Will OpenAI or Google announce an release a reduction to image generation filters around nudity by EOY 2027?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-06-10	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.61	Will any @ManifoldSports Fifa World Cup Game market get over .… traders?	manifold 2026-06-11	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	Will Poland surpass the UK in GDP per capita by PPP prior to 2035?(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-04-26	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.61	Will Mr. Beast run a red button vs. blue button video by the end of the year?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-04-30	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.61	When will the Official Gazette detailing the April 30 income increase breakdown be published?	manifold 2026-05-01	234_013 Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029 Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	How active will the 2026 Pacific hurricane season be?	manifold 2026-05-02	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.61	will i qualify for arml tiebreaker 2026?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-04-27	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.61	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 902(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-03	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.61	Will Jesus Christ Return before the 2028 election?	manifold 2026-05-05	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.61	Will Jesus Christ Return before the 2028 election?	manifold 2026-05-05	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.61	Will "[Linkpost] Interpreting Language Model Parameters" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-06	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.61	MANIFOLD TURING TEST: Can commenters distinguish snigus's vs CalibratedGhosts's replies ≥75%?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Will I make positive profit in this season on my alt account this season??(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-04	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Bitcoin $83k in May?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-05-07	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.61	Will I attend Manifest 2026?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-05-07	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.61	Will a Hantavirus Vaccine be created in 2026? [Polymarket](market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-08	246_027 AI models will be capable enough for terrorist groups to create novel pathogens (near future). Sam Altman	AI	51%
0.61	US Gas Price average for 11 May 2026?	manifold 2026-05-10	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.61	Will this market get between 55-75 unique traders?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-10	234_032 Market for humanoids and general purpose automation will be $50 trillion Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	29%
0.61	Will a rover from Earth land on the planet Venus by EOY 2051?(market prob: 68%)	manifold 2026-05-09	246_014 Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	40%
0.61	Will Brent Crude Oil close above $110 on May 15th, 2026?(market prob: 95%)	manifold 2026-05-12	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	How many minutes will CLASH (HS) be delayed by?	manifold 2026-05-12	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.61	Will I be promoted to Mana Gold by 12 am May 31, 2026?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-05-12	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will this coordination-metrics market get at least 3 unique traders in its first 24 hours?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-05-13	242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	Xi JinPing visits USA before Sep 30?(market prob: 82%)	manifold 2026-05-13	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.61	Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision in November?	manifold 2026-05-16	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.61	will there be a new llm release by the end of may?(market prob: 98%)	manifold 2026-05-17	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.61	What award will I get at AMM 2026?	manifold 2026-05-18	SPC_022 '2026 will be for AI in science what 2025 was for AI in software engineering' — a transition from AI as coding assistant to acting as scientific sparring partner: generating novel hypotheses, analyzing vast datasets, and dramatically accelerating R&D c... Kevin Weil	AI	41%