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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.62	Will I manage to get a question included in Tom Scott's Lateral podcast in 2026?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-06-16	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.62	High-Fidelity 3D Geometric Reconstruction of Pelvic Organs from MRI: A Hybrid Deep Learning and Iterative Optimization Approach	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Human-in-the-Loop Atlas-Based 3D Asset Segmentation for Interactive Content Workflows	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	ASTEROID: A Spatiotemporal Information Transformer for Forecasting Multi-Step Time Series of Molecular Dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-16	231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.62	Brick-DICL: Dynamic In-Context Learning for Automated Brick Schema Classification	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	Surrogate Assisted Pedestrian Protection Design via a Foundation Model Orchestrated Workflow	arxiv 2026-06-16	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.62	Geometric Consistency Protocol for Foundation Model Features in Multi-View Satellite Imagery	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	AIPatient Arena: EHR-grounded evaluation of large language models in end-to-end clinical consultation workflows	arxiv 2026-06-16	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.62	Visuals Lie, Consistency Speaks: Disentangling Spatial Attention from Reliability in Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	OmniPlan: An Adaptive Framework for Timely and Near-Optimal Network Planning Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	From Reasoning Traces to Reusable Modules: Understanding Compositional Generalization in Language Model Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Root-Selecting Fixed-Point Inversion for Rectified Flows via Trajectory Straightness	arxiv 2026-06-16	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.62	Continuous-time Optimal Stopping through Deep Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.62	Bounded Difference Concentration for Infinitely Exchangeable Sequences with Applications to AI Benchmark Uncertainty	arxiv 2026-06-16	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	Examining the Limits of Word2Vec with Toki Pona	arxiv 2026-06-15	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	Self-Generated Error Training for Token Editing in Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	SING: Synthetic Intention Graph for Scalable Active Tool Discovery in LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-15	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.62	Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?(market prob: 88%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.62	Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.62	Machine Unlearning for the XGBoost Model with Network Intrusion Datasets	arxiv 2026-06-17	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.62	The More the Merrier: Combining Properties for ABox Abduction under Repair Semantics for ELbot	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.62	Language Models as Interfaces, Not Oracles: A Hybrid LLM-ML System for Pediatric Appendicitis	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.62	Scaling Learning-based AEB with Massive Unlabeled Data	arxiv 2026-06-17	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.62	A Variational Framework for LLM Generator-Regulator Games	arxiv 2026-06-16	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.62	Confidence is Not Reliability: Rethinking MC Dropout in Brain Tumour Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-17	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Confidence is Not Reliability: Rethinking MC Dropout in Brain Tumour Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-17	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.62	Transformer Geometry Observatory TGO-I: Spectral Geometry Observatory	arxiv 2026-06-17	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.62	Generalised Eigenvalue Geometry of Semantic Adversarial Attacks	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Giskard : Byzantine Robust and Confidential Aggregation for Large-Scale Decentralized Learning	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Be Your Own Teacher: Steering Protein Language Models via Unsupervised Reward Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-17	237_022 Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years. Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.62	Kernel of Partition Paths: A Unified Representation for Tree Ensembles	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Learning from Your Own Mistakes: Constructing Learnable Micro-Reflective Trajectories for Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	TimeLAVA: Learning-Agnostic Data Valuation for Time Series	arxiv 2026-06-17	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.62	N(CO)$^2$: Neural Combinatorial Optimization with Chance Constraints to Solve Stochastic Orienteering	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Structural MRI Synthesis for Alzheimer's Disease via Conditional Diffusion on Anatomical Masks	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Structural MRI Synthesis for Alzheimer's Disease via Conditional Diffusion on Anatomical Masks	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Neural Network Implementation of the Renormalization Group for Fault Diagnosis with Class Imbalance	arxiv 2026-06-16	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	OmniPlan: An Adaptive Framework for Timely and Near-Optimal Network Planning Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Efficient Financial Language Understanding via Distillation with Synthetic Data	arxiv 2026-06-17	242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.62	Montreal Forced Aligner and the state of speech-to-text alignment in 2026	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Constant Time-Delay Leader Following with Neural Networks and Invariant Extended Kalman Filters for Arbitrary Trajectories	arxiv 2026-06-17	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.62	Invertible Neural Network Adapter for One-Step Flow Matching in Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Motion-Focused Latent Action Enables Cross-Embodiment VLA Training from Human EgoVideos	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Self-Supervised Mask-Aware Transformers for Fault-Tolerant FBG Force Sensing in Minimally Invasive Surgical Robotics	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Brazil leading at halftime?(market prob: 70%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	What will be true about the first quadrillionaire (Add Answers)	manifold 2026-06-19	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will the S&P 500 close above 7000 on December 31, 2026?(market prob: 77%)	manifold 2026-06-18	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.62	Repurposing a Speech Classifier for Guided Diffusion-Based Speech Generation	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Confidence-Aware Automated Assessment of Student-Drawn Scientific Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	SPC_030 Eureka Labs vision: 'teacher + AI symbiosis' that scales human expertise infinitely — generating hyper-capable problem-solvers aligned with the space-colonization-workforce demand of the 2030s. Andrej Karpathy	Education	55%
0.62	Editorial Alignment: A Participatory Approach to Engaging Editorial Expertise in LLM-mediated Knowledge Dissemination	arxiv 2026-06-18	241_048 AI/LLM will be the expression platform for student art, music, writing Eric Schmidt	Education	51%
0.62	Learner-based Concept Drift Detection: Analysis and Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.62	StreamKL: Fast and Memory-Efficient KL Divergence for Boosting Attention Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-18	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.62	SIMBA: ABidirectional Retrieval Forward Simulation Framework for Modeling FY-4A GIIRS Hyperspectral Infrared Radiances Toward NWP Applications	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_030 Deploying agentic processing capabilities directly into orbit via the Vera Rubin Space-1 Module eliminates terrestrial data-routing bottlenecks but introduces extreme engineering challenges — dissipating computational heat purely through thermal radiat... Jensen Huang	Space	33%
0.62	Neural Additive and Basis Models with Feature Selection and Interactions	arxiv 2026-06-18	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	GLARE: A Natural Language Interface for Querying Global Explanations	arxiv 2026-06-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Multi-Task Bayesian In-Context Learning	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Marginal Advantage Accumulation for Memory-Driven Agent Self-Evolution	arxiv 2026-06-18	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	On the Variance of Temporal Difference Learning and its Reduction Using Control Variates	arxiv 2026-06-18	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.62	Pose6DAug: Physically Plausible Multi-view Object Swapping for Robot Data Augmentation	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Adaptive Distance-Aware Trunk Deep Operator Learning for Long-Span Roadway Bridges	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	VIMPO: Value-Implicit Policy Optimization for LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-18	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.62	Learning universal approximations for partial differential equations with Physics-Informed Broad Learning System	arxiv 2026-06-18	230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.62	SEAGAN: domain-Specific and Edge-Aware Graph Attention Network for Dynamic Plant Processes	arxiv 2026-06-17	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.62	Unsupervised Causal Abstractions Discovery	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.62	3D-DLP: Self-Supervised 3D Object-Centric Scene Representation Learning	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	PsyScore: A Psychometrically-Aware Framework for Trait-Adaptive Essay Scoring and ZPD-Scaffolded Feedback	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.62	Characterizing Narrative Content in Web-scale LLM Pretraining Data	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.62	Gender Bias in LLM Hiring Decisions: Evidence from a Japanese Context and Evaluation of Mitigation Strategies	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	MemoryWAM: Efficient World Action Modeling with Persistent Memory	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	TaCauchy: An Extensible FEM Framework for Vision-Based Tactile Simulation	arxiv 2026-06-18	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.62	MMD-SLAM: Structure-Enhanced Multi-Meta Gaussian Distribution-Guided Visual SLAM	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	One Demo is Worth a Thousand Trajectories: Action-View Augmentation for Visuomotor Policies	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Proprioceptive Invariant State Estimation for Humanoid Robots on Non-Inertial Ground	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_013 'Unsupervised' Tesla Robotaxis will achieve operational capability across 25-50% of the United States by end of 2026 — initial production slow but deployment scales to capture multi-trillion-dollar transportation market. Humanoid robots (Optimus) event... Elon Musk	Auto/Transport	15%
0.62	Proprioceptive Invariant State Estimation for Humanoid Robots on Non-Inertial Ground	arxiv 2026-06-17	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.62	Simulating Robotic Locomotion in Sand: Resistive Force Theory in an Open-Source Physics Engine	arxiv 2026-06-17	248_037 State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	10%
0.62	FDA NDA218784: VORANIGO (VORASIDENIB) — SERVIER	fda 2026-06-10	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.62	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-25	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.62	Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.62	Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.62	Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-12-25	246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	79%
0.62	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.62	Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	20%
0.62	Will US average gas price reach $4.300 in May 2026?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-04-27	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	35%
0.62	Anthropic Removes Claude Code From Every Plan Except Max in 2026(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-04-23	247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.62	Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.62		gdelt 2026-04-30	240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.62		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.62		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.62		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.62		gdelt 2026-04-30	240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.62	microsoft q3 results top expectations driven by intelligent cloud strength 1091450.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_033 Global HBM demand will reach 32 billion Gb by 2026 — HBM is the absolute critical resource constraint in the AI compute supply chain. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	75%
0.62	solaris energy infrastructure inc q1 123000690.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.62	ch robinson chrw q1 2026 232738016.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.62	N82E16824281393?Item=N82E16824281393&cm sp=Homepage SS P2 24 281 393 04292026	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	87%
0.62	17000538	gdelt 2026-04-30	240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.62	17000538	gdelt 2026-04-30	241_057 Elon Musk believes robot building robot is imminent Elon Musk	Robotics	45%
0.62	US Gas Price on May 1 2026?	manifold 2026-04-30	244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.62	Will the 47fucb4r8curb4fc8f8r4bfic8r vs. Eliezer debate be posted publicly before June?(market prob: 73%)	manifold 2026-04-30	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 2?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Which prediction market events will I attend/speak at in 2026? (Read desc)	manifold 2026-05-01	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.62	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03?(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.62	Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	53%
0.62	Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.4% in 2026?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-01	232_022 Triple-digit GDP growth is possible in the next 5 years due to AI. Ben Horowitz	Macro/Economy	42%
0.62	Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.4% in 2026?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-01	FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan	Macro/Economy	72%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 4?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.62	Will SBF get back into crypto after being released?(market prob: 55%)	manifold 2026-05-03	247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross	Crypto	26%
0.62	Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?(market prob: 82%)	manifold 2026-05-02	232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	70%
0.62	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 5?(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.62	Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 88%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.62	Will WA SWIS 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$135/MWh?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-05-04	235_022 US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year. Peter Diamandis	Energy	53%
0.62	Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.62	Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?(market prob: 81%)	manifold 2026-05-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.62	Will SpaceX Plan a booster catch on Flight 12?(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-05-05	246_002 SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	46%
0.62	Tempus AI, Inc. (TEM) (CIK 0001717115)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	CMQ_028 NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026). Jensen Huang	Semis	72%
0.62	FDA ANDA077686: DILTIAZEM HYDROCHLORIDE (DILTIAZEM HYDROCHLORIDE) — ACTAVIS LABS FL INC	fda 2026-04-09	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	FDA BLA761298: PAVBLU (AFLIBERCEPT-AYYH) — AMGEN INC	fda 2026-04-28	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	openai/openai-python v2.30.0	github_release 2026-03-25	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.62	openai/openai-python v2.23.0	github_release 2026-02-24	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.62	openai/openai-python v2.19.0	github_release 2026-02-10	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.62	openai/openai-python v2.17.0	github_release 2026-02-05	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.62	openai/openai-python v2.16.0	github_release 2026-01-27	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.62	openai/openai-python v2.15.0	github_release 2026-01-09	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.62	openai/openai-python v2.14.0	github_release 2025-12-19	232_012 US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. Ben Horowitz	Geopolitics	44%
0.62	openai/openai-python v2.13.0	github_release 2025-12-16	234_050 Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilities Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	openai/openai-python v2.13.0	github_release 2025-12-16	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	openai/openai-python v2.12.0	github_release 2025-12-15	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.77.1	github_release 2026-02-03	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.62	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.3.0	github_release 2022-12-13	IND_012 NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a decade — Evo 2 achieves 90% accuracy in BRCA1 predictions; AI models will seamlessly transition generated biological designs into practical, synthesized clinical... Jensen Huang	Biotech/Longevity	68%
0.62	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.2.2	github_release 2022-06-13	234_050 Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilities Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.0.0	github_release 2021-07-16	ROB_004 By approximately 2027-2028, collaborative AI programs will essentially 'solve physics' — unifying general relativity and quantum mechanics into a new mathematical framework; the core mission of DeepMind is to 'first solve AI, then use AI to solve every... Demis Hassabis	AI	8%
0.62	huggingface/transformers v5.7.0	github_release 2026-04-28	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	huggingface/transformers v4.57.3	github_release 2025-11-25	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	huggingface/transformers v4.56.0-Embedding-Gemma-preview	github_release 2025-09-04	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.62	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.21.0	github_release 2026-03-06	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.62	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.16.1	github_release 2024-03-07	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.62	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.16.1	github_release 2024-03-07	CMQ_030 In the modern AI pipeline, the CPU no longer merely supports the model — it drives the model (agentic workloads invert historical CPU:GPU ratio). Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	34%
0.62	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.15.0-rc1	github_release 2023-11-03	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Spatiotemporal Convolutions on EEG signal -- A Representation Learning Perspective on Efficient and Explainable EEG Classification with Convolutional Neural Nets	arxiv 2026-05-05	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.62	MCJudgeBench: A Benchmark for Constraint-Level Judge Evaluation in Multi-Constraint Instruction Following	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.62	Agent-Based Modeling of Low-Emission Fertilizer Adoption for Dairy Farm Decarbonisation using Empirical Farm Data	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_024 Automated robotics and AI-powered monitoring will establish a global network of BioVaults — a 21st-century high-tech backup plan for life on Earth; as humanity faces potential extinction of nearly half of Earth's species by 2050 due to climate and habi... Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.62	Disentangling Shared and Task-Specific Representations from Multi-Modal Clinical Data	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Erase Persona, Forget Lore: Benchmarking Multimodal Copyright Unlearning in Large Vision Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.62	Deepfake Audio Detection Using Self-supervised Fusion Representations	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.62	RAG over Thinking Traces Can Improve Reasoning Tasks	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.62	Computing Thiele Rules on Interval Elections and their Generalizations	arxiv 2026-05-04	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.62	Mixed-Precision Information Bottlenecks for On-Device Trait-State Disentanglement in Bipolar Agitation Detection	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	GRPO-TTA: Test-Time Visual Tuning for Vision-Language Models via GRPO-Driven Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Distributed Learning with Adversarial Gradient Perturbations	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	RFPrompt: Prompt-Based Expert Adaptation of the Large Wireless Model for Modulation Classification	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	RFPrompt: Prompt-Based Expert Adaptation of the Large Wireless Model for Modulation Classification	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.62	VideoNet: A Large-Scale Dataset for Domain-Specific Action Recognition	arxiv 2026-05-04	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.62	Isotropic Fourier Neural Operators	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Recurrent Deep Reinforcement Learning for Chemotherapy Control under Partial Observability	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	A Novel Preprocessing-Driven Approach to Remaining Useful Life (RUL) Prediction Using Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN)	arxiv 2026-05-04	242_001 Elon's Terafab will build 1 terawatt of AI compute per year, 50x current global production Elon Musk	AI	44%
0.62	Reference-Sampled Boltzmann Projection for KL-Regularized RLVR: Target-Matched Weighted SFT, Finite One-Shot Gaps, and Policy Mirror Descent	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	Reproducing Complex Set-Compositional Information Retrieval	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.62	TriBench-Ko: Evaluating LLM Risks in Judicial Workflows	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	BIT.UA-AAUBS at ArchEHR-QA 2026: Evaluating Open-Source and Proprietary LLMs via Prompting in Low-Resource QA	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.62	InfoLaw: Information Scaling Laws for Large Language Models with Quality-Weighted Mixture Data and Repetition	arxiv 2026-05-04	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.62	Bucketing the Good Apples: A Method for Diagnosing and Improving Causal Abstraction	arxiv 2026-05-04	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.62	Parking Assistance for Trailer-Truck Transport Vehicles Using Sensor Fusion and Motion Planning	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Visibility-Aware Mobile Grasping in Dynamic Environments	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Visibility-Aware Mobile Grasping in Dynamic Environments	arxiv 2026-05-04	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.62	SAGA: A Robust Self-Attention and Goal-Aware Anchor-based Planner for Safe UAV Autonomous Navigation	arxiv 2026-05-04	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.62	Sampling-Based Control via Entropy-Regularized Optimal Transport	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_013 'Unsupervised' Tesla Robotaxis will achieve operational capability across 25-50% of the United States by end of 2026 — initial production slow but deployment scales to capture multi-trillion-dollar transportation market. Humanoid robots (Optimus) event... Elon Musk	Auto/Transport	15%
0.62	Sampling-Based Control via Entropy-Regularized Optimal Transport	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Revisiting semiclassical scalar QED in 1+1 dimensions	arxiv 2026-05-04	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.62	FDA ANDA219540: GLYCEROL PHENYLBUTYRATE (GLYCEROL PHENYLBUTYRATE) — MSN	fda 2026-04-15	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.62	FDA ANDA091291: LEVETIRACETAM (LEVETIRACETAM) — CHARTWELL RX	fda 2026-04-09	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	FDA ANDA219755: DAPAGLIFLOZIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (DAPAGLIFLOZIN, METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE) — INVENTIA HEALTHCARE LIMITED	fda 2026-04-09	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	Will Ethereum go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-05-07	247_046 AI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025 Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.62	Will anyone get me to post 🌀 in the comments on this market [Convince the Machine #9](market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-05-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Self-Attention as Transport: Limits of Symmetric Spectral Diagnostics	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	The Newsworthiness of Brazilian Distress: A Peak Analysis on Time Series of International Media Attention to Disasters in Brazil	arxiv 2026-05-06	SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail	Labor/Jobs	37%
0.62	FDA ANDA220314: SEMAGLUTIDE (SEMAGLUTIDE) — APOTEX INC	fda 2026-04-07	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	FDA BLA761328: BEYFORTUS (NIRSEVIMAB-ALIP) — ASTRAZENECA AB	fda 2026-04-07	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.62	openai/openai-python v2.36.0	github_release 2026-05-07	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.62	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.2.4	github_release 2023-03-31	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.62	facebookresearch/balance 0.10.0	github_release 2025-01-06	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.62	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.33	github_release 2025-11-12	240_021 Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.30	github_release 2025-04-28	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.62	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.29	github_release 2024-12-27	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	87%
0.62	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.28	github_release 2024-09-12	229_047 Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planned. Brett Adcock	AI	77%
0.62	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.62	Cross-Modal Navigation with Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	Operator-Guided Invariance Learning for Continuous Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.62	Measuring Black-Box Confidence via Reasoning Trajectories: Geometry, Coverage, and Verbalization	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	In-Context Black-Box Optimization with Unreliable Feedback	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.62	Dynamic Treatment on Networks	arxiv 2026-05-07	238_037 Network effects, economics, and game theory will persist in AI agent economy (no singleton takeover) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	Dynamic Treatment on Networks	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.62	Diversity Curves for Graph Representation Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.62	LINC: Decoupling Local Consequence Scoring from Hidden Matching in Constructive Neural Routing	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	End-to-End Identifiable and Consistent Recurrent Switching Dynamical Systems	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.62	PACE: Prune-And-Compress Ensemble Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Uncertainty Estimation via Hyperspherical Confidence Mapping	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.62	Towards Emotion Consistency Analysis of Large Language Models in Emotional Conversational Contexts	arxiv 2026-05-07	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.62	Generating Roadside LiDAR Datasets from Vehicle-Side Datasets via Novel View Synthesis	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Cycle-resolved Cephalopod-Inspired Pulsed-Jet Robot With High-Volume Expulsion and Drag-Reduced Gliding	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_005 Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~... Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	33%
0.62	Cycle-resolved Cephalopod-Inspired Pulsed-Jet Robot With High-Volume Expulsion and Drag-Reduced Gliding	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Reduced-order Neural Modeling with Differentiable Simulation for High-Detail Tactile Perception	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	FDA ANDA090508: FINASTERIDE (FINASTERIDE) — SUN PHARM	fda 2026-04-30	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.62	Will Nvidia announce an N1/N1X Windows-on-Arm PC chip at its June 1 Computex keynote?(market prob: 75%)	manifold 2026-05-09	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.62	Uber Technologies, Inc (UBER) (CIK 0001543151)	edgar_8k 2026-05-08	244_013 Uber will work with Chinese autonomous players (Pony, WeRide, hopefully Baidu) outside the US Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.62	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 10?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 6.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.62	Uber Technologies, Inc (UBER) (CIK 0001543151)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	244_013 Uber will work with Chinese autonomous players (Pony, WeRide, hopefully Baidu) outside the US Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.62	facebookresearch/spdl v0.2.0	github_release 2026-01-07	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.62	Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.62	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 3⅖(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-12	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.62	Tempus AI, Inc. (TEM) (CIK 0001717115)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	CMQ_028 NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026). Jensen Huang	Semis	72%
0.62	Detecting overfitting in Neural Networks during long-horizon grokking using Random Matrix Theory	arxiv 2026-05-12	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.62	From Message-Passing to Linearized Graph Sequence Models	arxiv 2026-05-12	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	Transferable Delay-Aware Reinforcement Learning via Implicit Causal Graph Modeling	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	KAN-CL: Per-Knot Importance Regularization for Continual Learning with Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Targeted Neuron Modulation via Contrastive Pair Search	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Not How Many, But Which: Parameter Placement in Low-Rank Adaptation	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.62	ECTO: Exogenous-Conditioned Temporal Operator for Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-12	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.62	ECTO: Exogenous-Conditioned Temporal Operator for Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.62	Missing Old Logits in Asynchronous Agentic RL: Semantic Mismatch and Repair Methods for Off-Policy Correction	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.62	Stochastic Minimum-Cost Reach-Avoid Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Qwen-Scope: Turning Sparse Features into Development Tools for Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-12	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.62	Adaptive TD-Lambda for Cooperative Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.62	Information theoretic underpinning of self-supervised learning by clustering	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Federated Client Selection under Partial Visibility: A POMDP Approach with Spatio-Temporal Attention	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Dual-Temporal LSTM with Hybrid Attention for Airline Passenger Load Factor Forecasting: Integrating Intra-Flight and Inter-Flight Booking Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-12	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	EVA-Bench: A New End-to-end Framework for Evaluating Voice Agents	arxiv 2026-05-13	AI_023 Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stakes presentations using 'Dara AI' — a synthetic, agentic clone of the CEO that pressure-tests narratives and logic before human executive meetings. Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	95%
0.62	Topology-Preserving Neural Operator Learning via Hodge Decomposition	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Negation Neglect: When models fail to learn negations in training	arxiv 2026-05-13	231_008 AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.62	Uncertainty-Driven Anomaly Detection for Psychotic Relapse Using Smartwatches: Forecasting and Multi-Task Learning Fusion	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.62	Conformal Anomaly Detection in Python: Moving Beyond Heuristic Thresholds with 'nonconform'	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Decoupled and Divergence-Conditioned Prompt for Multi-domain Dynamic Graph Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Decoupled and Divergence-Conditioned Prompt for Multi-domain Dynamic Graph Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	TurboGR: An Accelerated Training System for Large-Scale Generative Recommendation	arxiv 2026-05-13	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.62	Vector-Quantized Discrete Latent Factors Meet Financial Priors: Dynamic Cross-Sectional Stock Ranking Prediction for Portfolio Construction	arxiv 2026-05-13	242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.62	Safe Bayesian Optimization for Uncertain Correlations Matrices in Linear Models of Co-Regionalization	arxiv 2026-05-13	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.62	The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.62	Generative Modeling of Approximately Periodic Time Series by a Posterior-Weighted Gaussian Process	arxiv 2026-05-13	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.62	Margin-calibrated Classifier Guidance for Property-driven Synthesis Planning	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Frequency Bias and OOD Generalization in Neural Operators under a Variable-Coefficient Wave Equation	arxiv 2026-05-13	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Frequency Bias and OOD Generalization in Neural Operators under a Variable-Coefficient Wave Equation	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.62	Revisiting Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards from a Contrastive Perspective	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	SHM-Agents: A Generalist-Specialist Integrated Agent System for Structural Health Monitoring	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	FDA NDA021303: ADDERALL XR 10 (AMPHETAMINE ASPARTATE) — TAKEDA PHARMS USA	fda 2026-04-23	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026 or Starmer out before July 2026? [Polymarket](market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-14	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.62	Beam Global (BEEM) (CIK 0001398805)	edgar_8k 2026-05-15	CMQ_040 AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant global memory suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). Samsung executives	Semis/Memory	62%
0.62	DiffusionOPD: A Unified Perspective of On-Policy Distillation in Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Generalized Priority-Aware Shapley Value	arxiv 2026-05-14	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.62	Generalized Priority-Aware Shapley Value	arxiv 2026-05-14	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	DeepTokenEEG Enhancing Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimers Classification via Tokenized EEG Features	arxiv 2026-05-14	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.62	Exploring Geographic Relative Space in Large Language Models through Activation Patching	arxiv 2026-05-14	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Enjoy Your Layer Normalization with the Computational Efficiency of RMSNorm	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	ROAD: Adaptive Data Mixing for Offline-to-Online Reinforcement Learning via Bi-Level Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-14	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.62	LoMETab: Beyond Rank-1 Ensembles for Tabular Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	Guided Diffusion Sampling for Precipitation Forecast Interventions	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	ProtoMedAgent: Multimodal Clinical Interpretability via Privacy-Aware Agentic Workflows	arxiv 2026-05-13	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	“Will Elon Musk mention Dogecoin before June ends?”(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-05-17	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.62	Will Chainlink go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 55%)	manifold 2026-05-18	235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.62	Will ChatGPT personal finance release for Plus Plans in 2026?(market prob: 71%)	manifold 2026-05-18	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.62	Claude 5 released by End of September 2026?(market prob: 78%)	manifold 2026-05-18	246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.62	Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.62	Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will there be a trend spike for The Third Man Theme before 2038?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-05-19	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.62	Will "Convergent Abstraction Hypothesis" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-18	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	Will "Convergent Abstraction Hypothesis" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-18	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.62	Protein Fold Classification at Scale: Benchmarking and Pretraining	arxiv 2026-05-18	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.62	When Fireflies Cluster; Enhancing Automatic Clustering via Centroid-Guided Firefly Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Decoupled Conformal Optimisation: Efficient Prediction Sets via Independent Tuning and Calibration	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Decoupled Conformal Optimisation: Efficient Prediction Sets via Independent Tuning and Calibration	arxiv 2026-05-18	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.62	Dynamic Elliptical Graph Factor Models via Riemannian Optimization with Geodesic Temporal Regularization	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	A note on connections between the Föllmer process and the denoising diffusion probabilistic model	arxiv 2026-05-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	New Insight of Variance reduce in Zero-Order Hard-Thresholding: Mitigating Gradient Error and Expansivity Contradictions	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.62	Attention Sinks and Outliers in Attention Residuals	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Multi-site PPG: An In-the-Wild Physiological Dataset from Emerging Multi-site Wearables	arxiv 2026-05-18	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.62	Testable and Actionable Calibration for Full Swap Regret	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	L-Drive: Beyond a Single Mapping-Latent Context Drives Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	L-Drive: Beyond a Single Mapping-Latent Context Drives Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	PEIRA: Learning Predictive Encoders through Inter-View Regressor Alignment	arxiv 2026-05-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.62	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.62	Will XRP reach $1.60 in May?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.62	Will the Internet Computer Protocol token/coin (ICP) reach $3.50 by end of June 30, 2026?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-05-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	How will I do on ARML 2026	manifold 2026-05-26	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.62	Which site will have the highest average team score at ARML 2026?	manifold 2026-05-25	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	How many unique emoji will there be at the end of 2028?	manifold 2026-05-24	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.62	Hista and Numca: Estimate State Value Effectively for LLM Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.62	LFQ: Logit-aware Final-block Quantization for Boosting the Generation Quality of Low-Bit Quantized LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.62	Beyond Trajectory Rewards: Step-level Credit Assignment for Agentic Search via Graph Modeling	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Beyond Trajectory Rewards: Step-level Credit Assignment for Agentic Search via Graph Modeling	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.62	VikingMem: A Memory Base Management System for Stateful LLM-based Applications	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Quotient DAGs for Off-Policy Evaluation:Forward-Flow Importance Sampling and Exact Slate Propensities	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.62	Striding Across Reynolds Numbers: Representation Geometry in Neural PDE Generalisation	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Q-ANCHOR: Federated Quantum Learning with ZNE-guided Correction	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.62	Q-ANCHOR: Federated Quantum Learning with ZNE-guided Correction	arxiv 2026-05-28	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	Treatment-Conditioned Diffusion for Forecasting Neurodegenerative Disease Progression	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_013 'Unsupervised' Tesla Robotaxis will achieve operational capability across 25-50% of the United States by end of 2026 — initial production slow but deployment scales to capture multi-trillion-dollar transportation market. Humanoid robots (Optimus) event... Elon Musk	Auto/Transport	15%
0.62	EMAG: Differentiable 4D Gaussian Mixture Splatting for EEG Spatial Super-Resolution	arxiv 2026-05-28	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.62	Bastion: Budget-Aware Speculative Decoding with Tree-structured Block Diffusion Drafting	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Eigen-Spike Emergence and Quadratic Equivalents for Conjugate Kernels on Nonlinearly Separable Data	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	FPLIER: Federated Pathway-Level Information Extractor	arxiv 2026-05-28	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.62	Learning to Perturb Hidden Representations for Generalizable Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Composing Non-Conjugate Factor Graphs with Closed-Form Variational Inference	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.62	Kernel-based potential mean-field games with unbiased random Fourier $U$-statistics	arxiv 2026-05-28	INF_043 Unit cost of intelligence will drop at a rate far exceeding Moore's Law, driving explosive demand growth that filters out to edge devices and localized small models. Marc Andreessen	AI	47%
0.62	Causal Label Recovery in Payment Networks	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.62	Knowing What to Solve Before How: Preplan Empowered LLM Mathematical Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-28	238_020 Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	61%
0.62	Adaptive Targeted Dynamic Chunking for Tokenization-Free Hierarchical Model	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.62	Causal Interventions on Continuous Variables: A Case Study on Verb Bias in Steering Vectors for In-Context Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Beyond English and Evasion: A Human-Annotated Multi-Domain Benchmark for High-Stakes LLM Safety Evaluation in Chinese	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil	AI	30%
0.62	GAPD: Gold-Action Policy Distillation for Agentic Reinforcement Learning in Knowledge Base Question Answering	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.62	Learning to Feel Materials from Multisensory Tactile Data via Interpretable Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	FDA ANDA207812: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — ZYDUS PHARMS	fda 2026-05-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	FDA ANDA040191: MEPERIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE (MEPERIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — STRIDES PHARMA INTL	fda 2026-05-15	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	huggingface/transformers v5.9.0	github_release 2026-05-20	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.62	Will TYLOO win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.62	Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	US Gas Price on June 15?	manifold 2026-05-31	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	US Gas Price $4.100 or below in June 2026?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-05-31	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2?(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.62	Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.62	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2?(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.62	What Happens First: James Bond actor officially announced or Elon Musk a trillionaire?	manifold 2026-06-01	238_052 $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) Elon Musk	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.62	Will a rover from Earth land on the planet Mercury by EOY 2051?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-30	246_014 Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	40%
0.62	FDA ANDA208052: LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE (LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — ZYDUS PHARMS	fda 2026-05-14	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	openai/openai-python v2.40.0	github_release 2026-06-01	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.62	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 4?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 3?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.62	Will M80 win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.62	Will New Glenn fly again in 2026?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-06-02	COD_SPC_007 NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist Codex Research Pack	Space	43%
0.62	Will Virgin Galactic (SPCE) close at or above $8.00 on June 18, 2026?(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-05-31	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.62	Bridging the Sim-to-Real Gap in Semiconductor Visual Program Synthesis via Input Binarization	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.62	Quantitative Movement Testing: Measuring Patient Movements from a Single Smartphone Video	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	How Hard Can It Be? Hardness-Aware Multi-Objective Unlearning	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.62	"I've Seen How This Goes": Characterizing Diversity via Progressive Conditional Surprise	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.62	"I've Seen How This Goes": Characterizing Diversity via Progressive Conditional Surprise	arxiv 2026-06-01	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Two-Fidelity Best-Action Identification for Stochastic Minimax Tree	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.62	Revisiting Ripple Effects in Knowledge Editing through Pressure-Aware Joint Neighborhood Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Computation-Aware Kalman Filtering with Model Selection for Neural Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Local Preferential Bayesian Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.62	Doing well with less! On Sampling Techniques for Empirical Pairwise Loss Estimation/Minimization	arxiv 2026-06-01	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.62	A Doeblin-Anchored Contrastive Chart for Learning Markov Transition Kernels	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Network Learning with Semi-relaxed Gromov-Wasserstein	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	When Tabular Foundation Models Transfer Across Modalities: A Systematic Evaluation Across 95 Datasets, 7 Modalities, and Two Regimes	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Beyond $\ell_2$-norm and $\ell_\infty$-norm: A Curvature-Inspired $\ell_p$-Norm Scheme for Deep Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-01	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.62	Beyond $\ell_2$-norm and $\ell_\infty$-norm: A Curvature-Inspired $\ell_p$-Norm Scheme for Deep Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.62	Resonant Context Anchoring: Decoupling Attention Routing and Signal Gain at Inference Time	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Beyond the Simplex: Balanced Prototype Geometry for Scorer-Agnostic Open-Set Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-01	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	Decentralized Instruction Tuning: Conflict-Aware Splitting and Weight Merging	arxiv 2026-06-01	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.62	Self-Regulating Annealing in Heavy-Tailed Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	On the Uncertainty Quantification Ability of Tabular Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Differentially Private Datastore Generation for Retrieval-Augmented Inference	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.62	TVIR: Building Deep Research Agents Towards Text--Visual Interleaved Report Generation	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	DECK: A Consistency x Confidence Taxonomy of LLM Hallucinations	arxiv 2026-06-01	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Better with Experience: Self-Evolving LLM Agents for Evidence-Grounded Health Community Notes	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.62	Learning from Saturated Data: Signals Beyond Correctness for LLM Training	arxiv 2026-05-31	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.62	TECCI: Tricky Edits of Collected and Curated Images	arxiv 2026-05-31	245_025 Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of edits Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	80%
0.62	Implicit Geographic Inference in LLM Medical Triage: Language-Driven Disparities in Emergency Recommendations	arxiv 2026-05-31	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.62	A Finite-Calibration Regime Map for LLM Judge Panels	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	A Finite-Calibration Regime Map for LLM Judge Panels	arxiv 2026-05-31	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Towards Lightweight Reliability: Using Soft Prompts for Hallucination Mitigation in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-30	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.62	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.1.4	github_release 2020-01-21	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 4?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in June?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	When will Manifest 2026 have 10+ session videos available online?	manifold 2026-06-03	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.62	When will Manifest 2026 have 10+ session videos available online?	manifold 2026-06-03	232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	70%
0.62	FDA NDA050574: SANDIMMUNE (CYCLOSPORINE) — NOVARTIS	fda 2026-05-29	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.62	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5?(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.62	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5?(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.62	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 5?(market prob: 87%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.62	Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 5?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.62	Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 5?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.62	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will El Niño develop this year? (as declared by NOAA before 1 December 2026)(market prob: 87%)	manifold 2026-06-04	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.62	Will Maxx Crosby play for Dallas Cowboys next?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.62	Gold price above 4,750.00 in June 2026(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-06-05	247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.62	Code2LoRA: Hypernetwork-Generated Adapters for Code Language Models under Software Evolution	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.62	Closing the Loop on Latent Reasoning via Test-Time Reconstruction	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Dense Contexts Are Hard Contexts: Lexical Density Limits Effective Context in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.62	Step-adaptive multimodal fusion network with multi-scale cloud feature learning for ultra-short-term solar irradiance forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-04	INF_058 The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized solar + residential/commercial battery storage will shift power management toward microgrids where local DNOs optimize autonomously, turning millions of ho... Andrew Yang	Energy	52%
0.62	Deep Learning-based 3D Oral Cavity Reconstruction Using 2D Intraoral Images	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Edit-R2: Context-Aware Reinforcement Learning for Multi-Turn Image Editing	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Consistency Training Along the Transformer Stack	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Value-and-Structure Alignment for Routing-Consistent Quantization of Mixture-of-Experts Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	GuardNet: Ensemble Strategies of Shallow Neural Networks for Robust Prompt Injection and Jailbreak Detection	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	ArcANE: Do Role-Playing Language Agents Stay in Character at the Right Time?	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	What Objects Enable, Not What They Are: Functional Latent Spaces for Affordance Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-04	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.62	DNQ: Deep Nash Q-Network for Partially Observable n-Player Games	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.62	Latent Reasoning with Normalizing Flows	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	GRAMformer: Any-Order Modality Interactions via Volumetric Multimodal Cross-Attention	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Field Validation of a Multi-Resolution ConvLSTM Framework for Retaining Wall Deformation Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-04	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.62	Learned Subspace Compression for Communication-Efficient Pipeline Parallelism	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Learned Subspace Compression for Communication-Efficient Pipeline Parallelism	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	GOTabPFN: From Feature Ordering to Compact Tokenization for Tabular Foundation Models on High-Dimensional Data	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Reinforcement Learning Elicits Contextual Learning of Unseen Language Translation	arxiv 2026-06-04	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.62	NAVIRA: Decoupled Stochastic Remasking for Masked Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	The Generator-Eraser Paradox: Community Guidelines for Responsible LLM-Assisted Dialect Resource Creation	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	EMBER: Efficient Memory via Budgeted Evidence Retention for Long-Horizon Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.62	PlanBench-V: A Spatial Planning Map Benchmark for Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Membrane: A Self-Evolving Contrastive Safety Memory for LLM Agent Defense	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	An Embarrassingly Simple Detector for Model Extraction Attacks in Large Language Model API Traffic	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.62	DeliChess: A Multi-party Dialogue Dataset for Deliberation in Chess Puzzle Solving	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Breaking Time: A Fully Gaussian Framework for Distributed and Continuous-Time SLAM	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Preserving Full 6-DOF Actuation Under Abrupt Total Rotor Failures: Passive Fault-Tolerant Flight Control Using a Biaxial-Tilt Hexacopter	arxiv 2026-06-04	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.62	Preserving Full 6-DOF Actuation Under Abrupt Total Rotor Failures: Passive Fault-Tolerant Flight Control Using a Biaxial-Tilt Hexacopter	arxiv 2026-06-04	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.62	Learning Contact Representation for Leg Odometry	arxiv 2026-06-03	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.62	MoDex: A Diffusion Policy for Sequential Multi-Object Dexterous Grasping	arxiv 2026-06-03	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.62	X4Val: Learning Neural Surrogates for Variance-Reduced Policy Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-03	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.62	BPDA-GMM: Bayesian Probabilistic Data Association via Gaussian Mixture Models for Semantic SLAM	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Think Fast and Far: Long-Horizon Online POMDP Planning via Rapid State Sampling	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Think Fast and Far: Long-Horizon Online POMDP Planning via Rapid State Sampling	arxiv 2026-06-03	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Krylov Complexity: Flat bands and Carroll breaking deformations	arxiv 2026-06-03	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.62	Krylov Complexity: Flat bands and Carroll breaking deformations	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06?(market prob: 88%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.62	Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 6?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.62	US Gas Price on June 22 2026	manifold 2026-06-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.62	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?(market prob: 95%)	polymarket 2026-01-15	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.62	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8?(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.62	Will the FY2027 NDAA enter law by February 1st 2027, and direct U.S.-Israel military cooperation in AI?(market prob: 75%)	manifold 2026-06-06	INF_002 By 2027-2028, the US national-security apparatus will effectively appropriate frontier AI data centers — 'The Project' — to secure algorithmic weights and physical infrastructure against state-actor espionage. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Geopolitics	30%
0.62	Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 7?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.62	When Large Language Models Fail in Healthcare: Evaluating Sensitivity to Prompt Variations	arxiv 2026-06-05	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.62	Auditing Training Data in Domain-adapted LLMs: LoRA-MINT	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.62	A machine-learning-assisted progressive digit-randomness screening framework for detecting non-random patterns in raw numerical research data	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.62	Heterogeneous Effects of Green Finance on Urban Decarbonization: Evidence from 285 Cities in China	arxiv 2026-06-05	234_038 Real estate is not an asset class impervious to the singularity Alex Wissner-Gross	Real Estate	35%
0.62	Heterogeneous Effects of Green Finance on Urban Decarbonization: Evidence from 285 Cities in China	arxiv 2026-06-05	234_040 Elon predicts FSD and Starlink may reverse urbanization in America Elon Musk	Real Estate	32%
0.62	Heterogeneous Effects of Green Finance on Urban Decarbonization: Evidence from 285 Cities in China	arxiv 2026-06-05	FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam	Energy	45%
0.62	Geometry of Semantic Space: Comparative Study of Discrete and Continuous Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.62	Modeling semantic association in self-paced reading with language model embeddings	arxiv 2026-06-05	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.62	Translate-R1: Cost-Aware Translation Tool Use via Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.62	Predictive Style Matching: Natural and Robust Humanoid Locomotion	arxiv 2026-06-05	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.62	Extending Responsibility-Sensitive Safety for the Assessment of Offloaded Autonomous Driving Services	arxiv 2026-06-05	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.62	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 8?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.62	Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 93%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	New gemini version out in june(market prob: 75%)	manifold 2026-06-08	241_046 Gemini 3 is probably the broadest of the non-Chinese AI systems Eric Schmidt	AI	47%
0.62	Will I (Mitpro) reach Expert in Codeforces again before July 1st(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-06-08	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.62	Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-06-07	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.62	Will United States win on 2026-06-12?(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.62	Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs FULL SENSE (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.62	Will the May Jobs report be revised upwards in June?(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-06-09	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.62	AHA-WAM:Asynchronous Horizon-Adaptive World-Action Modeling with Observation-Guided Context Routing	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	TABVERSE: Benchmarking Cross-Format Table Understanding in LLMs and VLMs	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	FuseFSS: Efficient Secure LLM Inference with Function Secret Sharing	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.62	LLM-Orchestrated Conformance Checking in Stroke Care Without Computer-Interpretable Guidelines	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.62	Correct Looks Better: Pairwise Comparisons Reveal Accuracy Rankings	arxiv 2026-06-08	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	Beyond Humans: Multispecies Animal Face Recognition Using Transfer Learning	arxiv 2026-06-08	241_061 China robots will compete as replacement for dogs / low-cost consumer use (now; useful later) Eric Schmidt	Robotics	44%
0.62	TRL-Bench: Standardizing Cross-Paradigm Representation-Level Evaluation of Tabular Encoders	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.62	End-to-End Training for Discrete Token LLM based TTS System	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.62	DynaOD: Dynamic Origin-Destination Flow Generation with Discrete-to-Continuous Temporal Semantic Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-08	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.62	Families of Control-Cost-Parametrized Inverse-Optimal Universal Stabilizers	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Decoy-Calibrated Failure Audits for Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.62	Towards Long-Horizon Vessel Trajectory and Destination Forecasting with Reasoning Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Reinforcement Learning for Flow-Matching Policies with Density Transport	arxiv 2026-06-07	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.62	LexRubric: A Rubric-Guided Diagnostic Benchmark for Open-Ended Legal Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_025 The legal profession must transition from viewing AI as a 'prompter' to an active 'partner' — when an autonomous AI consultant hallucinates legal precedent or medical diagnosis, traditional corporate malpractice frameworks fail; courts must rapidly est... Ralph Losey	Other	77%
0.62	NüshuVoice: Reviving the Voice of Endangered Nüshu with Pitch-Aware Text-to-Speech	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.62	A Joint Finite-Sample Certificate for Adaptive Selective Conformal Risk Control	arxiv 2026-06-07	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Friend or Foe? Language as an ideological switch in open-weight LLMs under Russian disinformation stress	arxiv 2026-06-07	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.62	Taming Perception Jitter: Uncertainty-Aware LiDAR Object Detection for Reliable Motion Classification	arxiv 2026-06-08	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.62	TORL-VLA: Tactile Guided Online Reinforcement Learning for Contact-Rich Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Autonomous FPV Flight with Translational Optical Flow and Uncertainty Mask	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-01-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.62	Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.62	How many critical severity cyber vulnerabilities will be found in December 2026?	manifold 2026-06-10	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.62	How many critical severity cyber vulnerabilities will be found in December 2026?	manifold 2026-06-10	CMQ_001 By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. Sam Altman	AI	45%
0.62	A History-Aware Visually Grounded Critic for Computer Use Agents	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.62	Democratising Camera Trap AI: An Open-Source Model for Detecting UK Mammals	arxiv 2026-06-09	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.62	A Constrained Natural-Language Interface for Variational Multi-Physics Finite Element Simulations in FEniCS	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Boosting ECG Classification Performance by Pre-training with Synthesized Data	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Fast and Highly Expressive Policy Learning for Offline Reinforcement Learning via Bootstrapped Flow Q-Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Advancing the State-of-the-Art in Empirical Privacy Auditing	arxiv 2026-06-09	231_027 Algorithmic arbitration with cryptographic verification will create programmable governments. Salim Ismail	Other	44%
0.62	UPLOTS: A Unified Pretrained Language Model for Constrained Time-series Generation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Speech Meets ELF: Audio Conditional Continuous-Target Diffusion for Speech Recognition and Translation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.62	KG-SoftMAP: Soft Knowledge-Graph Priors for Bayesian Network Structure Learning from Sparse Discrete Data	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Sim2Schedule: A Simulator-Guided LLM Framework for Autonomous Open-Pit Mine Scheduling	arxiv 2026-06-09	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.62	Pareto-Guided Teacher Alignment for Fair Personalized Text Generation	arxiv 2026-06-08	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Itô maps for any-step SDEs	arxiv 2026-06-09	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.62	Multimodal Brain Tumour Classification Using Feature Fusion	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	When Do Autoregressive Sequence Models Forecast Physical Wavefields? A Controlled Study on Synthetic Seismograms	arxiv 2026-06-09	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.62	When Do Autoregressive Sequence Models Forecast Physical Wavefields? A Controlled Study on Synthetic Seismograms	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Can we trust our models? Epistemic calibration in second-order classification	arxiv 2026-06-09	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Beyond Explaining Predictions: Logic-Based Explanations for Confidence in Machine Learning Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.62	The Order Matters: Sequential Fine-Tuning of LLaMA for Coherent Automated Essay Scoring	arxiv 2026-06-09	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.62	Attention Amnesia in Hybrid LLMs: When CoT Fine-Tuning Breaks Long-Range Recall, and How to Fix It	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	A Distributed Multi-UGV Exploration Framework With Loop-Aware Planning and Descriptor-Aided Localization in Resource-Limited Environments	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Uncertainty-Aware Motion Planning for Autonomous Driving in Mixed Traffic Environment	arxiv 2026-06-08	243_011 Autonomous driver will be much safer than a human being Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.62	Magic and entanglement in 1+1-dimensional SU(2) lattice gauge theory	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 12?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%