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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.65 | Will US unemployment exceed 5% in 2026?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 238_017 Uber will automate approximately 30% of its employment this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 51% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-04-29 | FUT_023 'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 68% | ||
| 0.65 | Will I get a GF in the year of 2026(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-04-28 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | ||
| 0.65 | Bitcoin $69K in May?(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.65 | LLMs understand language [Convince the Machine #4](market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 241_050 AI LLMs can run for hours (e.g., dinner to 4am) autonomously creating new solutions Eric Schmidt | AI | 57% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.65 | Will a bot win prize drawing this year?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 37% | |
| 0.65 | Trump orders mandatory AI predeployment evals by end of August(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | 10% | |
| 0.65 | Will Bitcoin network hashrate go up in 24h?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.65 | Will April 2026 core CPI rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 52%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.65 | Will Xi Jingping visit US before 2027?(market prob: 86%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.65 | Bitcoin $100k before End of June 2026?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 234_014 We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 59% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-18 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.65 | Claude 5 released by End of September 2026?(market prob: 78%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.65 | Will there be a physical protest at YouTube headquarters before 2028?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-15 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | ||
| 0.65 | Double digit USD inflation before 2028 election?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | 236_007 US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 242_057 Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission Peter Diamandis | Space | 56% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-26 | SEM_044 Blue Origin will land cargo at Shackleton Crater before SpaceX — validating lunar economy and resource extraction as immediate commercial priority. Peter Diamandis | Space | 32% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 247_037 Quantum computing will not break Bitcoin (Mike Saylor position) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 54% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-29 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-04 | SEM_044 Blue Origin will land cargo at Shackleton Crater before SpaceX — validating lunar economy and resource extraction as immediate commercial priority. Peter Diamandis | Space | 32% | ||
| 0.65 | Will the s&p500 close at 7,000.00 or less before 2028?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 229_008 By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). Brett Adcock | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-06 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.65 | Will AMM 2026 release scores next week?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 38% | ||
| 0.65 | Will a rover from Earth land on the moon Ganymede by EOY 2046?(market prob: 77%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | 242_037 China will land on the moon before end of 2030 China (government) | Space | 46% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk | AI | 44% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-02 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | ||
| 0.65 | Trump orders mandatory AI predeployment evals by end of August(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | S_AI_PAUSE_2028 AI pause beginning 2028 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.65 | Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 12,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030?(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 50% | |
| 0.65 | New pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket](market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.65 | Will the Shiller P/E Ratio hit a new all-time high before Jan 1, 2030?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-16 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 247_020 Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustment Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 50% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-15 | SPC_001 The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 trillion by 2040 — fueled by higher launch cadences, new product introductions, and mature policy support characterizing the 2026 fiscal landscape. Morgan Stanley | Space | 60% | ||
| 0.65 | OPQA (OpenAI-proof QA) hits 20% before 2027(market prob: 59%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030 | humanoid_deployment | 20% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-31 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-01 | CMQ_039 TSMC CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) capacity must expand to 125,000 wafers/month by 2026 to meet baseline demand from NVIDIA, AMD, and hyperscaler ASICs. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Packaging | 71% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.65 | Will the share of Americans in the workforce drop below 61.5% in 2026?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.65 | Will the share of Americans in the workforce drop below 61.5% in 2026?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | IND_019 2026 is the year AI's impact on workers fundamentally comes into focus — near-term 4% net reduction in jobs across the 5 sectors most exposed to AI, heavily targeting entry-level positions; but labor disruption increases returns for firms that successf... Morgan Stanley | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.65 | Will Virgin Galactic (SPCE) close at or above $8.00 on June 18, 2026?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | SPC_001 The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 trillion by 2040 — fueled by higher launch cadences, new product introductions, and mature policy support characterizing the 2026 fiscal landscape. Morgan Stanley | Space | 60% | |
| 0.65 | Will May 2026 US nonfarm payrolls increase by at least 150,000?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 247_020 Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustment Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 50% | |
| 0.65 | Will US average gas price reach $4.300 in May 2026?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.65 | Will Bitcoin reach $90K USD in May 2026?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 236_007 US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.65 | Will Google announce Gemini 4 at I/O 2026 (May 19-20)?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.65 | Bitcoin $84K in May?(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.65 | Bitcoin $82K in May?(market prob: 96%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-04 | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | 15% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.65 | Will this market close between 60% - 70%(market prob: 61%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.65 | Will the Shiller P/E Ratio hit a new all-time high before Jan 1, 2030?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei | AI | 41% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.65 | Will Perplexity become profitable by EOY 2027?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.65 | Will BTC-USD close above $100,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.65 | Double digit USD inflation before 2028 election?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | 236_034 Rapid inflation in near-term from UBI money printing, then rapid deflation from AI/robotics Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 238_006 Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) Emad Mostaque | Labor/Jobs | 40% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 242_003 Musk ecosystem could become first $100 trillion company Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 49% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-02 | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang | Manufacturing | 86% | ||
| 0.65 | Bitcoin $82K in June?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.65 | Will the Bitcoin block height increase by 145+ blocks?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.65 | Will 50% or more of the Erdos problems be solved at the end of 2030?(market prob: 68%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.65 | S&P500 closes at 7,500.00 before End Of May 2026?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.65 | Will Bitcoin go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.65 | Will SBF get back into crypto after being released?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.65 | Will MISO Indiana Hub 2027 day-ahead annual average exceed US$55/MWh?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_012 AI data-center power consumption will grow by approximately 126 GW annually through 2028 — comparable to Canada's total annual power demand, and representing nearly 20% of projected global power growth through 2030. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 46% | |
| 0.65 | Will a Historic Labor Strike occur in the United States before 2030?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei | AI | 41% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.65 | Will QCOM stock reach $300 by the end of 2026?(market prob: 74%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 233_005 Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year. Dave Blundin | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.65 | Will code vulnerabilities (CVE records) more then double in 2026?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.65 | Thinking Machines acquired by Apple before 2031?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-15 | 235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.65 | Daily Coinflip 🎉(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.65 | GOOG > AMD at market close on August 31st?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.65 | 2026 rate hike parlay (Fed + ECB + BOJ + BOE + PBC)(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 245_027 Colossal DNA synthesis delivery will reach 20x the largest prior delivery by end of 2026 Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 41% | ||
| 0.65 | Will a rover from Earth land on the planet Mercury by EOY 2051?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 246_015 Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). Elon Musk | Space | 42% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 242_020 Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K Elon Musk | Auto/Transport | 31% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-02 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | ||
| 0.65 | Gold price above 4,750.00 in June 2026(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-04 | SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 56% | ||
| 0.65 | Resolution criteria mandatory for Yes/No markets on 09/09/2026?(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.64 | Will I get a GF in the year of 2026(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.64 | Will I get a girlfriend in the year 2026(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | INF_073 AI will become smarter than any single human by end of 2025 or 2026, and smarter than all of humanity combined by 2030 or 2031. Elon Musk | AI | 48% | |
| 0.64 | Will US average gas price reach $4.690 in May 2026?(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.64 | Bitcoin $67K in May?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.64 | Bitcoin $65K in May?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | ||
| 0.64 | Will anybody win the Prize Drawings more than once in 2026?(market prob: 83%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.64 | Will Vic NEM 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$115/MWh?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_032 Residential electricity costs are a structural byproduct of DC buildout: Washington state household electricity costs rose 10.3% from 2024 to 2025 directly tied to infrastructure strain, with utility-proposed rate increases projecting residential price... Seattle Met / Washington State regulators | Macro/Economy | 54% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 246_015 Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). Elon Musk | Space | 42% | ||
| 0.64 | Bitcoin $83k in May?(market prob: 70%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.64 | will i get gold at amm 2026(market prob: 78%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.64 | Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 25,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030?(market prob: 72%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | AUT_008 Uber has structured partnerships integrating Waymo, May Mobility, Lucid Group + Nuro manufacturing agreement to deploy up to 20,000 purpose-built autonomous vehicles globally — hybrid human+AV transportation networks will persist 20-30 years due to cur... Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 76% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.64 | Will I have another peak moment in the next 5 years?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | FUT_016 Next 5 years (2026-2030) require individuals + organizations to adopt 'FLUX' superpowers — ability to transform constant uncertainty into strategic advantage. Traditional linear career paths dissolve entirely by 2030, replaced by fluid portfolio-based ... April Rinne | Labor/Jobs | 44% | |
| 0.64 | Will Google announce Gemini 3.2 or Gemini 3.5 at I/O 2026?(market prob: 87%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-10 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | ||
| 0.64 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 9¾(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | Will WTI close(or open) $108 in May 2026? (After May 10)(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.64 | Will Bitcoin trade above $90,000 between now and June 1, 2026?(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 236_007 US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-17 | IND_009 Artificial Superintelligence arrives by roughly 2030 — shortly thereafter all human illnesses will be cured 'much sooner than we think'; mechanism: AI not just predicting protein structures but generating novel biological designs revolutionizing drug d... Demis Hassabis | Biotech/Longevity | 19% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 232_056 Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-18 | SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin | AI/China | 45% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Polymarket feature a market about Teamfight Tactics before 2028?(market prob: 43%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.64 | Will the OSN-K 2026 announcement be on time?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk | AI/AGI | 19% | |
| 0.64 | Will Bitcoin be higher than right now, exactly 7 days from now?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-01 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-31 | FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.64 | Will May 2026 US nonfarm payrolls increase by at least 150,000?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | AUT_007 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll... Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 13% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.64 | Will there be a data center on the moon Europa by EOY 2066?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | AI_020 NVIDIA will launch a 'space computing' push via the specialized Vera Rubin Space Module — bringing AI infrastructure, geospatial intelligence, and autonomous operations into low Earth orbit, then to autonomous lunar manufacturing bases. NVIDIA | Space | 36% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-29 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | ||
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | Will semiconductors outperform the S&P 500 in 2026?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.64 | Will I deploy my business website by the end of April 2026?(market prob: 96%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.64 | Will I get a girlfriend in the year 2026(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | LLMs understand language [Convince the Machine #4](market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 241_048 AI/LLM will be the expression platform for student art, music, writing Eric Schmidt | Education | 51% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-03 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | ||
| 0.64 | Will SBF get back into crypto after being released?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 237_021 Alex Finn will eventually give his AI agents crypto wallets once they can generate business autonomously. Alex Finn | Crypto | 40% | |
| 0.64 | Will anybody win the Prize Drawings more than once in 2026?(market prob: 83%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.64 | New pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket](market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | Xi JinPing visits USA before July 31?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | Will code vulnerabilities (CVE records) more then double in 2026?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-13 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.64 | will there be a major linux virus in 2026?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.64 | Will Starship Flight 12 Achieve All Flight Goals?(market prob: 52%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 242_026 Rocket point-to-point travel will win over hyperloop due to Starship launch cadence Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 46% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 230_015 For the next few years more people will end up doing more work, not less (996 turns into 997). Alex Wissner-Gross | Labor/Jobs | 39% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Perplexity become profitable by EOY 2027?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 240_052 Uploading consciousness (whole brain emulation) really will be you in the future Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 41% | ||
| 0.64 | GOOG > AMD at market close on August 31st?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn | Consumer | 77% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | Will New Glenn fly again in 2026?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | Gold price above 5,100.00 in June 2026(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 37% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail | Markets/Stocks | 47% | ||
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | Will Qwen 3.6+ 122B A10B be open weights before July 2026?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.64 | Will I get a GF in the year of 2026(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | |
| 0.64 | Will China Collapse before 2035? (GDP down 20%)(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | FUT_023 'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 68% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-24 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 15% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Intel stock trade above $90 in May, 2026?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.64 | will i get a medal at the IPO 2026?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.64 | Bitcoin $80K in May?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 243_036 Price of rides will come down with autonomous driving Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 41% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 12,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030?(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 246_039 Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 49% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-11 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Terminator2 earn more profit than ShogGoth over the next month?(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 240_002 Amazon or Anthropic will hit a trillion in revenue within a calendar year faster than NVIDIA Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | |
| 0.64 | Will Codex be announced to have hit 5M WAUs before June?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.64 | Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei | AI | 41% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Litecoin go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.64 | Will BTC-USD close below $90,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.64 | Top team score for ARML 2026 greater than 235?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-29 | CMQ_011 AGI is plausible within 10 years, BUT alignment and safety must be solved BEFORE reaching AGI — not concurrently, and not after. Demis Hassabis | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% |