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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-05 | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | 15% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-06 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-06 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.63 | Will my prediction market idea win?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.63 | Will SPY be above 720.65 on market close May 8th?(market prob: 82%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.63 | Will this market close between 60% - 70%(market prob: 61%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.63 | Will Nord Pool 2027 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_010 US data-center demand will reach 74 GW by 2028 against a projected ~49 GW power-access shortfall — structural gap driven by retiring coal/gas, aging grid, and ~7-year interconnection queues. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 56% | |
| 0.63 | Will April 2026 core CPI rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 52%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-11 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Flygon get a mega evolution by the end of 2028?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | COD_BIO_005 Colossal adds at least one more de-extinction species to active embryo-transfer pipeline by end 2028 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-10 | SEM_036 World-class AI programmers will appear within 1-2 years (by 2027-2028). Eric Schmidt | AI/Cognition | 70% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-14 | FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Energy | 39% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Dogecoin reach 106% of its current price in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-13 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.63 | “Will Elon Musk mention Dogecoin before June ends?”(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 246_014 Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 40% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 229_026 By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 38% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-18 | AI_004 AI will be 'smarter than the smartest human' by 2026, driven by fully automated recursive self-improvement loops compounding cognitive gains without human intervention. Elon Musk | AI | 17% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-18 | SEM_037 For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, faster, and cheaper by next year (2026-2027). Emad Mostaque | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.63 | $10m prize for 100m record claimed in 2027(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.63 | $10m prize for 100m record claimed in 2027(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. Dario Amodei | AI | 77% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-27 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Dogecoin reach 106% of its current price in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.63 | Micron closes above $1,100 at end of month?(market prob: 71%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.63 | Silver price above 90.000 in June 2026(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 236_007 US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-06 | 236_007 US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Intel stock trade above $90 in May, 2026?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.63 | Will ClankerView get 100 paying users in 2026?(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | ||
| 0.63 | LLMs understand language [Convince the Machine #4](market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | |
| 0.63 | Will anybody win the Prize Drawings more than once in 2026?(market prob: 83%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | |
| 0.63 | Will MISO Indiana Hub 2027 day-ahead annual average exceed US$55/MWh?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley | Energy | 47% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-04 | FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Energy | 39% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | ||
| 0.63 | Bitcoin $85K in May?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang | Consumer | 51% | ||
| 0.63 | Will this market close between 60% - 70%(market prob: 61%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.63 | Will Nord Pool 2028 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?(market prob: 52%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 235_022 US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year. Peter Diamandis | Energy | 53% | |
| 0.63 | Will this market get between 55-75 unique traders?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 235_027 Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 46% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-11 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-12 | INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn | Consumer | 77% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Polymarket launch its official token in 2026?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-13 | S_AI_PAUSE_2028 AI pause beginning 2028 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.63 | Will SPY close above $750 on Friday, May 15, 2026?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-05-15 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Will Codex be announced to have hit 5M WAUs before June?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.63 | “Will Elon Musk mention Dogecoin before June ends?”(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | ||
| 0.63 | Will the May 2026 US CPI year-over-year reading come in above 2.8%?(market prob: 80%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 247_009 Anthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026 Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | |
| 0.63 | Will the May 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.63 | Will ChatGPT personal finance release for Plus Plans in 2026?(market prob: 71%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 55% | |
| 0.63 | Will Litecoin go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | ||
| 0.63 | Will BTC-USD close above $100,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 234_044 Intelligence does not have a fixed upper bound; governance will cap it before IQ Salim Ismail | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-29 | CMQ_011 AGI is plausible within 10 years, BUT alignment and safety must be solved BEFORE reaching AGI — not concurrently, and not after. Demis Hassabis | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.63 | $10m prize for 100m record claimed in 2027(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.63 | Will 1mon (Max) wear a dress in 2026(market prob: 71%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) | mars_uncrewed_landing | 50% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Bitcoin be below 71K at end of week?(market prob: 98%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | ||
| 0.63 | Elon Musk's Death(market prob: 1%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 248_009 Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years. Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 37% | |
| 0.63 | Will the May 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.3%?(market prob: 82%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 247_020 Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustment Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 50% | |
| 0.63 | Will Navier-Stokes be considered solved on June 3th 2027?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | COD_SPC_007 NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist Codex Research Pack | Space | 43% | |
| 0.63 | Will the S&P500 close at 7650.00 or higher in June 2026?(market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-07 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.63 | Will a rover from Earth land on the moon Ganymede by EOY 2046?(market prob: 77%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | 246_014 Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 40% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-02 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-05 | S_GRID_50GW_DELAYED 50GW grid expansion delayed past 2031 | energy_grid_expansion | 10% | ||
| 0.63 | Will the US average gas price hit $5 per gallon in May 2026?(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.63 | Will Terminator2 have at least 200 Moltbook followers by 2026-05-18?(market prob: 83%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028 Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028 | humanoid_deployment | 50% | |
| 0.63 | Trump orders mandatory AI predeployment evals by end of August(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-08 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.63 | Will April 2026 core CPI rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 52%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.63 | Will the Bun rewrite in Rust stick?(market prob: 79%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Starship Flight 12 Achieve All Flight Goals?(market prob: 52%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 246_015 Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). Elon Musk | Space | 42% | |
| 0.63 | Will SPY close below $720 on Friday, May 29, 2026?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Will Litecoin go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | 247_046 AI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025 Peter Diamandis | AI | 55% | |
| 0.63 | Any new Veo model released during Google I/O(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.63 | Will 1mon (Max) wear a dress in 2026(market prob: 71%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | 238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 247_053 AI's largest risk to Bitcoin is irrelevance via AI agents not using it Alex Wissner-Gross | Crypto | 38% | ||
| 0.63 | Am I a brain in a vat?(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 240_052 Uploading consciousness (whole brain emulation) really will be you in the future Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 41% | |
| 0.63 | Resolution criteria mandatory for Yes/No markets on 09/09/2026?(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.63 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-04-30 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | ||
| 0.63 | will i get a medal at the IPO 2026?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 238_027 OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.63 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz on any week in 2026?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Will GameStop buy / aquire eBay until end of 2026?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Will I have a market with more than 21 traders in May?(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.63 | I go through the scaling book this week?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.63 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Trump orders mandatory AI predeployment evals by end of August(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | S_AI_PAUSE_2026 Major-country AI pause beginning 2026 | ai_regulatory_pause | 5% | |
| 0.63 | Will this market close between 60% - 70%(market prob: 61%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.63 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Will April 2026 core CPI rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 52%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross | Crypto | 26% | ||
| 0.63 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Will Polymarket launch its official token in 2026?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-13 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.63 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Will Dogecoin reach 106% of its current price in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.63 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Will Hantavirus become a pandemic in 2026?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.63 | Will AI psychosis make it into the DSM6?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | IND_009 Artificial Superintelligence arrives by roughly 2030 — shortly thereafter all human illnesses will be cured 'much sooner than we think'; mechanism: AI not just predicting protein structures but generating novel biological designs revolutionizing drug d... Demis Hassabis | Biotech/Longevity | 19% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | ||
| 0.63 | Will ETH-USD close above $3,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.63 | Will BTC-USD close below $90,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.63 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-29 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.63 | Will 200 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-27 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Dogecoin reach 106% of its current price in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.63 | US Gas Price $3.800 or below in June 2026?(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.63 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 242_011 New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 years Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.63 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Elon Musk's Death(market prob: 1%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | |
| 0.63 | Will Navier-Stokes be considered solved on June 3th 2027?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | ROB_004 By approximately 2027-2028, collaborative AI programs will essentially 'solve physics' — unifying general relativity and quantum mechanics into a new mathematical framework; the core mission of DeepMind is to 'first solve AI, then use AI to solve every... Demis Hassabis | AI | 8% | |
| 0.63 | Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2027?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | 30% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-06 | COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 33% | ||
| 0.63 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Will the June 2026 ISM Services PMI be at least 50.0?(market prob: 87%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | |
| 0.63 | Will I finish my library takeouts before theyre due?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 243_042 Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forward Dara Khosrowshahi | Consumer | 51% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Build a Bear outperform the SP500 for the year of 2027?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 230_022 Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years. Elon Musk | Robotics | 31% | |
| 0.63 | will i get a medal at the IPO 2026?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.63 | Will a Historic Labor Strike occur in the United States before 2030?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 243_031 Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-04 | FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Energy | 39% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.63 | Will SpaceX Plan a booster catch on Flight 12?(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | SPC_012 SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical prerequisite for future Mars missions, enabling Starship depot-based beyond-LEO operations. Peter Diamandis | Space | 41% | |
| 0.63 | Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Will my prediction market idea win?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | |
| 0.63 | Will I get an 100 on my Arabic Midterm?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 233_003 Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring. MacKenzie Price | Education | 39% | |
| 0.63 | Will bitcoin rise to 85k before the Strait of Hormuz is freely open?(market prob: 71%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-09 | 240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang | Markets/Stocks | 78% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 43% | ||
| 0.63 | Will Xi Jingping visit US before 2027?(market prob: 86%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 37% | |
| 0.63 | Will Solana trade above $100 by the end of May 2026?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 43% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 229_007 Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 48% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.63 | Will I complete Quicktakeshaven before August 2026(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.63 | Will GMail get blocked in Russia by the end of 2026(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 242_032 AI will do the job for 2% of the cost of a human in the near term Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.63 | Bitcoin $78K in June?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Bitcoin $80K in June?(market prob: 3%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.63 | Will the June 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI be at least 50.0?(market prob: 64%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | SEM_017 TSMC will produce over 10M wafers/month total in 2026, including ~100K/mo at 2nm and ~200K/mo at 3nm. TSMC (All-In Podcast analysis) | Semis | 65% | |
| 0.63 | Will the June 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI be at least 50.0?(market prob: 64%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-02 | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | 30% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-03 | COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 33% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-06-05 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.63 | Goog 380 by end of week?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 38% | ||
| 0.63 | Tesla reaches $400 before $300?(market prob: 70%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 230_021 Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots. Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.63 | Will the US unemployment rate be >=6.4% in April 2028?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | AUT_007 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll... Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 13% | |
| 0.63 | Bitcoin $65K in May?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Bitcoin $84K in May?(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.63 | Bitcoin $80K in May?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.63 | Will US average gas price reach $4.500 in May 2026?(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.63 | manifold 2026-05-05 | FUT_002 Mean expert estimate for AGI collapsed from 50-year horizon to ~5 years over a 4-year window leading to mid-2020s — placing expected AGI arrival firmly in 2029-2031 window per Metaculus + 80000 Hours aggregate tracking; quantitative forecasters now ali... Superforecaster Community | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.63 | Will SpaceX Plan a booster catch on Flight 12?(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 246_007 SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 35% | |
| 0.63 | Any new Claude Model Before May 16th?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 229_008 By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). Brett Adcock | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | |
| 0.63 | Any new Claude Model Before May 16th?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 234_051 Claude-facilitated dating will replace traditional matchmaking Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 38% | |
| 0.63 | Will Ethereum go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.63 | Will Ethereum go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.63 | Will Ethereum go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.63 | Will a Hantavirus Vaccine be created in 2026? [Polymarket](market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | |
| 0.63 | Will Nord Pool 2027 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_048 Global data-center energy demand will reach approximately 945 Terawatt-hours by 2030 — a roughly 175% increase from 2023 levels — requiring complete grid overhauls in major markets. IEA | Energy | 48% | |
| 0.63 | Will this market get between 55-75 unique traders?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 235_028 Longevity market will grow from $5 trillion to $8 trillion in next four years. Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 56% | |
| 0.63 | Will Sam Altman file a case against anthropic in next 3 months?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 235_043 Anthropic may win legal challenge against Dept of War classification. Salim Ismail | Defense | 36% | |
| 0.63 | Will Brent Crude Oil close above $110 on May 15th, 2026?(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.63 | Will Flygon get a mega evolution by the end of 2028?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk | AI | 44% |