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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.61	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?(market prob: 76%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will the July 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-06-15	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.61	US Gas Price on July 1?	manifold 2026-06-14	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.7.2	github_release 2022-12-19	INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	48%
0.61	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.4.0	github_release 2021-02-09	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.61	Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2025-12-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) (CIK 0001571996)	edgar_8k 2026-06-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Semantic Flip: Synthetic OOD Generation for Robust Refusal in Embodied Question Answering and Spatial Localization	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	SpecAlign: Efficient Specification-Grounded Alignment of Large Language Models via Synthetic Data	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Scalable Pairwise Kernel Learning with Stochastic Vec Trick	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Cross-Silo De-Anonymization Under Local Differential Privacy: Threat Model, Phase Transition, and Coordination Necessity	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.61	Maximum Entropy Inverse Reinforcement Learning for Mean-Field Games with Average Reward	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Distribution Alignment for One-Shot Federated Learning via Optimal Transport	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	FEnc$^2$: Unifying Data Packing for Efficient Private Inference via Convolution and Architecture-Aware Fragment Encoding	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_059 Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds. Alex Finn	AI	62%
0.61	pFedUL: Layer-Aware Federated Unlearning for Personalized Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	Polynomial-Time Mistake-Bounded Language Generation	arxiv 2026-06-15	248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.61	Stop the Sampler! Classifier-Based Adaptive Stopping for Sampling Kernels	arxiv 2026-06-15	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.61	Spectral Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Structured Non-Exchangeable Data	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Multi-Turn Reflective Masking Elicits Reasoning in Mask Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Progressive Knowledge-Guided Large Language Model Framework for Bearing Fault Diagnosis	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	How Far Can Machine Translation Quality Take You? Extrinsic Discourse Evaluation in Goal-Oriented Setups	arxiv 2026-06-15	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Surpassing Scale by Efficiency: A Compact 135M Parameter Foundational LLM Natively Adapted for the Bangla Language	arxiv 2026-06-15	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	LLM-Assisted Stance Detection in Scientific Discourse: A Test Case in Bayesian Cognitive Science	arxiv 2026-06-14	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.61	ExoTraj: A General Lower-limb Exoskeleton Assistance Policy for Complex Environments	arxiv 2026-06-15	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.61	PO-PDDL: Learning Symbolic POMDPs from Visual Demonstrations for Robot Planning Under Uncertainty	arxiv 2026-06-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Machine Learning Topological Order from Defect Partition Functions	arxiv 2026-06-14	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	FDA ANDA210985: METHYLPREDNISOLONE (METHYLPREDNISOLONE) — INGENUS PHARMS LLC	fda 2026-06-11	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	FDA NDA022434: ARGATROBAN IN SODIUM CHLORIDE (ARGATROBAN) — CIPLA	fda 2026-06-10	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Sabine Hossenfelder mention any prediction markets on string theory or BSM physics before the end of 2027?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-06-16	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Perceptual compensation for tonal context in self-supervised speech models	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	ASTEROID: A Spatiotemporal Information Transformer for Forecasting Multi-Step Time Series of Molecular Dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-16	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	SketchXplain: Intuitive Visual Explanations of Image Classifiers with Sketches	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	MLLP-VRAIN UPV system for the IWSLT 2026 Simultaneous Speech Translation task	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Revisiting Structural Dependency in Autoregressive Multi-Task Table Recognition via Order-Independent Cell-Level Representations	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Beyond IGO-Flow: Toward Convergence Analysis of IGO in Continuous Spaces	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	A Bayesian Boolean Matrix Factorization with Application to Copy Number Analysis in Cancer	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.61	Multi-Adapter PPO: A Cross-Attention Enhanced Wavelength Selection Framework for LIBS Quantitative Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.61	Toward Controllable Catalyst Inverse Design via Large-Scale Autoregressive Pretraining	arxiv 2026-06-16	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.61	Reading between the Lines: Leveraging Large Language Models for Global Dementia and Depression Assessment from Clinical Interviews	arxiv 2026-06-16	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.61	Learning task-specific subspaces via interventional post-training of speech foundation models	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Prompt Perturbation for Reliable LLM Evaluation over Comparison Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-16	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	FLAP: FOV-Constrained Active Perception Planning for Prior-Map-Free 3D Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-16	242_059 Self-flying eVTOLs will be the norm given AI safety advantages Dave Blundin	Auto/Transport	45%
0.61	FLAP: FOV-Constrained Active Perception Planning for Prior-Map-Free 3D Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-16	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.61	Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 89%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 89%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) (CIK 0001571996)	edgar_8k 2026-06-17	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Explaining Attention with Program Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-17	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.61	AdsMind: A Physics-Grounded Multi-Agent System for Self-Correcting Discovery of Adsorption Configurations on Heterogeneous Catalyst Surfaces	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.61	TRAP: Benchmark for Task-completion and Resistance to Active Privacy-extraction	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.61	TRAP: Benchmark for Task-completion and Resistance to Active Privacy-extraction	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	SHIFT: Semantic Harmonization via Index-side Feature Transformation for Multilingual Information Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	NeuralMUSIC: A Hybrid Neural-Subspace Framework for Robot Sound Source Localization	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	Are LLMs Ready to Assist Physicians? PhysAssistBench for Interactive Doctor-Patient-EHR Assistance	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_025 The legal profession must transition from viewing AI as a 'prompter' to an active 'partner' — when an autonomous AI consultant hallucinates legal precedent or medical diagnosis, traditional corporate malpractice frameworks fail; courts must rapidly est... Ralph Losey	Other	77%
0.61	Better Adherence, Richer Context: A Field Evaluation of LLM-Powered Conversational Voice Diaries for Sleep	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Dual Dimensionality for Local and Global Attention	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.61	ASTRA: A Scalable Next-Generation ATCO Training Simulator with Autonomous Simpilots	arxiv 2026-06-16	AI_023 Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stakes presentations using 'Dara AI' — a synthetic, agentic clone of the CEO that pressure-tests narratives and logic before human executive meetings. Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	95%
0.61	P-K-GCN: Physics-augmented Koopman-enhanced Graph Convolutional Network for Deep Spatiotemporal Super-resolution	arxiv 2026-06-17	FUT_021 Uncontrolled recursive self-improvement by AGI requires vast uninterrupted physical infrastructure, flawless power grids, perfect global supply chains for advanced semiconductors. In Zeihan-Bremmer world (severe demographic labor shortages, fragmented ... Superforecaster Community	AI	46%
0.61	Structured Inference with Large Language Gibbs	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Quantifying and Auditing LLM Evaluation via Positive--Unlabeled Learning	arxiv 2026-06-17	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Be Your Own Teacher: Steering Protein Language Models via Unsupervised Reward Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-17	238_012 OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes Kevin Weil	AI	38%
0.61	Quantification of Uncertainty with Adversarial Models in Medical Image Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Quantification of Uncertainty with Adversarial Models in Medical Image Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-17	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	Approximate Structured Diffusion for Sequence Labelling	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Attention as Frustrated Synchronization	arxiv 2026-06-17	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.61	Fair Online Resource Allocation	arxiv 2026-06-17	238_038 Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Fair Online Resource Allocation	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.61	N(CO)$^2$: Neural Combinatorial Optimization with Chance Constraints to Solve Stochastic Orienteering	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	SenFlow: Inter-Sentence Flow Modeling for AI-Generated Text Detection in Hybrid Documents	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Improving Medical Communication using Rubric-Guided Counterfactual Recommendations	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis	AI	60%
0.61	LLMs Struggle to Measure What Distinguishes Students of Different Proficiency Levels: A Study of Item Discrimination in Reading Comprehension Assessment	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	Mobile Pedipulation for Object Sliding via Hierarchical Control on a Wheeled Bipedal Robot	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Viking Hill Dataset: A Lidar-Radar-Camera Dataset for Detection and Segmentation in Forest Scenes	arxiv 2026-06-17	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.61	ReSiReg: Towards Spatially Consistent Semantics in Language-Conditioned Robotic Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	ART-VS: Adaptive Resolution Tiling for Vision Transformer Visual Servoing	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	RegimeVGGT: Layer-Wise Spatially Preserving Redundancy Removal for Visual Geometry Grounded Transformer	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	The Landscape of Composite Higgs Models	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24?(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	World's first quadrillionaire before EOY 2040(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-06-19	246_010 SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	43%
0.61	FlowMaps: Modeling Long-Term Multimodal Object Dynamics with Flow Matching	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Implicit Semantic-Aware Communication Based on Hypergraph Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	The Hidden Evolution of Disguised Visual Context inside the VLM	arxiv 2026-06-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	CSWinUNETR: Segmentation of Thin Anatomical Structures in Medical Images	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Uncertainty-Aware Reward Modeling for Stable RLHF	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Before the Labels: How Dataset Construction Shapes Suicidality Detection in Clinical Text	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis	AI	60%
0.61	Configurable Clinical Information Extraction with Agentic RAG: What Works, What Breaks, and Why	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis	AI	60%
0.61	UNIEGO: Proxies as Mediators for Unified Egocentric Video Representation Learning	arxiv 2026-06-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Topological Data Analysis for High-Dimensional Dynamic Process Monitoring	arxiv 2026-06-18	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.61	Quantum ring all-reduce: communication and privacy advantages for distributed learning	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.61	Shifting-based Optimizable Linear Relaxations for General Activation Functions	arxiv 2026-06-18	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	Integrating national forest inventory, airborne lidar, and satellite imagery for wall-to-wall mapping of forest structure with computer vision	arxiv 2026-06-18	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.61	Adaptive Distance-Aware Trunk Deep Operator Learning for Long-Span Roadway Bridges	arxiv 2026-06-18	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Activation- and Influence-Aware Ranks (AIR): Function-Preserving SVD Compression for LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-18	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Score Approximation for Diffusion Models on Arbitrary Low-Dimensional Structures	arxiv 2026-06-18	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Global Convergence of Gradient Descent for Score Matching in Gaussian Mixtures via Reverse Fisher Divergence	arxiv 2026-06-18	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Enhancing Graph Neural Networks Using Proximity Graphs for Dust Source Emission Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Enhancing Graph Neural Networks Using Proximity Graphs for Dust Source Emission Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-18	SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	56%
0.61	Convex training of Lipschitz-regularized shallow neural networks	arxiv 2026-06-17	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	PsyScore: A Psychometrically-Aware Framework for Trait-Adaptive Essay Scoring and ZPD-Scaffolded Feedback	arxiv 2026-06-18	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.61	REDACT: A Systematically Controlled Multilingual Benchmark for Personal Information Detection	arxiv 2026-06-18	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.61	SAGE-OPD: Selective Agent-Guided Intervention for Multi-Turn On-Policy Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.61	Are LLMs Ready to Assist Physicians? PhysAssistBench for Interactive Doctor-Patient-EHR Assistance	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_025 The legal profession must transition from viewing AI as a 'prompter' to an active 'partner' — when an autonomous AI consultant hallucinates legal precedent or medical diagnosis, traditional corporate malpractice frameworks fail; courts must rapidly est... Ralph Losey	Other	77%
0.61	Quantum models with the Yang-Lee phase transition	arxiv 2026-06-18	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.61	Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.61	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-10	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.61	LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 4 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.61	Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.61	Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-17	229_004 By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.61	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-03-26	235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.61	Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-21	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 82%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.61	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-03-24	237_012 Over the next 12 months OpenClaw technology will be digested into corporations, causing destruction (layoffs) but also growth. Alex Finn	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.61	Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.61	Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.61	Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2025-07-24	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.61	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-03	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?(market prob: 65%)	polymarket 2026-03-26	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.61	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-04-28	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	this market will resolve to yes if it closes with a greater than 50% chance of resolving to yes(market prob: 81%)	manifold 2026-04-24	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will the wild population of North Atlantic Right Whale (Eubalaena glacialis) become Extinct by 2100?(market prob: 82%)	manifold 2026-04-24	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.61	Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail	Geopolitics	44%
0.61	anduril palantir spacex cambiando forma estados unidos 20260430020434 nt.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	ROB_023 SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	58%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.61	meta stock drops company ramps 233826186.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK08 Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)	—	22%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	why investors didnt give meta a pass on increased spending despite a great quarter.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.61	984371 robot dogs elon musk jeff bezos heads viral	gdelt 2026-04-30	230_022 Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years. Elon Musk	Robotics	31%
0.61	984371 robot dogs elon musk jeff bezos heads viral	gdelt 2026-04-30	240_038 Amazon will be first to reach corporate singularity with more robots than humans Jason Calacanis	Labor/Jobs	35%
0.61	LoL: Fnatic vs Solary - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in May?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.61	Xi Jinping out by June 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-17	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.61	Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.61	Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.61	Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	Will Kamala announce a run in 2028(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-04-30	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.61	Will the Green Party or Labour next have a leadership election, after 30th April 2026?	manifold 2026-04-30	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.61	Will "llm assistant personas seem increasingly inco..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-04-29	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.61	LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 77%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.61	Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02?(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-04-19	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	53%
0.61	Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.61	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-01	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.61	How active will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season be?	manifold 2026-05-02	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.61	Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.61	Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-03	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	US Average Gas Price on May 4 2026?	manifold 2026-05-03	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	35%
0.61	Manifold Meta-Futarchy 2026	manifold 2026-05-02	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?(market prob: 82%)	manifold 2026-05-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?(market prob: 82%)	manifold 2026-05-02	INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn	Consumer	77%
0.61	Will "Takes from two months as an aspiring LLM natu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-04-29	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.61	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-03-26	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 88%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will a Manifolder win the Summer Metaculus Cup(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-04	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.61	Will a Manifolder win the Summer Metaculus Cup(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-04	SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Mathematics	15%
0.61	Will Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-05-04	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.61	Will Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	48%
0.61	Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?(market prob: 75%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	48%
0.61	Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	84%
0.61	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-05	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-05	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.61	FDA NDA206628: DEXMEDETOMIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE (DEXMEDETOMIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — HQ SPCLT PHARMA	fda 2026-05-01	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	FDA ANDA218738: GLYCEROL PHENYLBUTYRATE (GLYCEROL PHENYLBUTYRATE) — TEVA PHARMS INC	fda 2026-04-15	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	FDA ANDA073484: VALPROIC ACID (VALPROIC ACID) — BIONPHARMA	fda 2026-04-08	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	FDA ANDA220225: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — ALEMBIC	fda 2026-04-15	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	openai/openai-python v2.31.0	github_release 2026-04-08	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.61	openai/openai-python v2.8.1	github_release 2025-11-17	234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead	AI	41%
0.61	openai/openai-python v2.7.2	github_release 2025-11-10	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.61	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.2.2	github_release 2022-06-13	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.61	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.1.0	github_release 2021-11-02	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.61	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.1.0	github_release 2021-11-02	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.61	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.0.1	github_release 2021-09-30	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.61	huggingface/transformers v5.5.3	github_release 2026-04-09	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.61	huggingface/transformers v5.5.2	github_release 2026-04-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	huggingface/transformers v5.5.2	github_release 2026-04-09	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.61	huggingface/transformers v4.56.1	github_release 2025-09-04	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.61	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.21.0	github_release 2026-03-06	CMQ_030 In the modern AI pipeline, the CPU no longer merely supports the model — it drives the model (agentic workloads invert historical CPU:GPU ratio). Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	34%
0.61	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.21.0	github_release 2026-03-06	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.61	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.15.0-rc0	github_release 2023-10-25	248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.61	pytorch/pytorch v2.8.0	github_release 2025-08-06	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.61	Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027	energy_grid_expansion	40%
0.61	US Strategic Petroleum Reserve - lowest value in 2026	manifold 2026-05-06	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.61	Will "[Linkpost] Interpreting Language Model Parameters" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-06	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will "[Linkpost] Interpreting Language Model Parameters" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Will this market appear on a mug?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-06	244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi	Other	53%
0.61	SERE: Structural Example Retrieval for Enhancing LLMs in Event Causality Identification	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	AdapShot: Adaptive Many-Shot In-Context Learning with Semantic-Aware KV Cache Reuse	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.61	CuraView: A Multi-Agent Framework for Medical Hallucination Detection with GraphRAG-Enhanced Knowledge Verification	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis	AI	60%
0.61	GeoDecider: A Coarse-to-Fine Agentic Workflow for Explainable Lithology Classification	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	FreeTimeGS++: Secrets of Dynamic Gaussian Splatting and Their Principles	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Partially Observed Structural Causal Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Ortho-Hydra: Orthogonalized Experts for DiT LoRA	arxiv 2026-05-05	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.61	OptiLookUp: An Optical ROM-Based Loop up Table Engine for Photonic Accelerators	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.61	Computing Thiele Rules on Interval Elections and their Generalizations	arxiv 2026-05-04	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	When Audio-Language Models Fail to Leverage Multimodal Context for Dysarthric Speech Recognition	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Complex Equation Learner: Rational Symbolic Regression with Gradient Descent in Complex Domain	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	On Computing Total Variation Distance Between Mixtures of Product Distributions	arxiv 2026-05-05	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	Bandits attack function optimization	arxiv 2026-05-05	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Conformalized Percentile Interval: Finite Sample Validity and Improved Conditional Performance	arxiv 2026-05-04	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Sparse Memory Finetuning as a Low-Forgetting Alternative to LoRA and Full Finetuning	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Unsupervised Machine Learning for Detecting Structural Anomalies in European Regional Statistics	arxiv 2026-05-04	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Federated Reinforcement Learning for Efficient Mobile Crowdsensing under Incomplete Information	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Spectral Model eXplainer: a chemically-grounded explainability framework for spectral-based machine learning models	arxiv 2026-05-04	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	CNNs for Vis-NIR Chemometrics: From Contradiction to Conditional Design	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Selective Prediction from Agreement: A Lipschitz-Consistent Version Space Approach	arxiv 2026-05-04	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	HARMES: A Multi-Modal Dataset for Wearable Human Activity Recognition with Motion, Environmental Sensing and Sound	arxiv 2026-05-04	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.61	Evaluating Tabular Representation Learning for Network Intrusion Detection	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Rational Communication Shapes Morphological Composition	arxiv 2026-05-05	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Benchmarking Logistic Regression, SVM, Naive Bayes, and IndoBERT Fine-Tuning for Sentiment Analysis on Indonesian Product Reviews	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	The TTS-STT Flywheel: Synthetic Entity-Dense Audio Closes the Indic ASR Gap Where Commercial and Open-Source Systems Fail	arxiv 2026-05-04	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.61	Benchmarking Retrieval Strategies for Biomedical Retrieval-Augmented Generation: A Controlled Empirical Study	arxiv 2026-05-04	245_031 99% of synthetic biology focus will remain on human healthcare; similar tech applies more broadly Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	41%
0.61	A multilingual hallucination benchmark: MultiWikiQHalluA	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	A Systematic Benchmark of Machine Transliteration Models for the Tajik-Farsi Language Pair: A Comparative Study from Rule-Based to Transformer Architectures	arxiv 2026-05-04	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.61	Higher-Order Flexible Configurations of Planar Parallel Manipulators Constructed by Averaging	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	EdgeLPR: On the Deep Neural Network trade-off between Precision and Performance in LiDAR Place Recognition	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Statistics of a multi-factor function from its Fourier transform	arxiv 2026-05-04	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.61	FDA ANDA078947: LAMOTRIGINE (LAMOTRIGINE) — TORRENT PHARMS	fda 2026-04-10	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	FDA ANDA203364: MESNA (MESNA) — RISING	fda 2026-04-09	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	FDA ANDA090607: LAMOTRIGINE (LAMOTRIGINE) — ALEMBIC PHARMS LTD	fda 2026-04-13	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	FDA BLA761055: DUPIXENT (DUPILUMAB) — REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS	fda 2026-04-22	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.61	FDA BLA761059: HADLIMA (ADALIMUMAB-BWWD) — SAMSUNG BIOEPIS CO LTD	fda 2026-04-29	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	openai/openai-python v2.35.1	github_release 2026-05-06	234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead	AI	41%
0.61	openai/openai-python v2.35.1	github_release 2026-05-06	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.61	Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will I break a bone before the end of 2027?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-05-07	229_008 By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). Brett Adcock	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.61	Bitcoin $83k in May?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-05-07	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.61	Will SPY be above 720.65 on market close May 8th?(market prob: 82%)	manifold 2026-05-03	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.61	Assessing Cognitive Effort in L2 Idiomatic Processing: An Eye-Tracking Dataset	arxiv 2026-05-06	INF_028 AI will render approximately 99% of white-collar jobs replaceable within two years — cognitive-labor costs will mathematically approach the marginal cost of electricity required to generate inference. Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	14%
0.61	Assessing Cognitive Effort in L2 Idiomatic Processing: An Eye-Tracking Dataset	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	The Newsworthiness of Brazilian Distress: A Peak Analysis on Time Series of International Media Attention to Disasters in Brazil	arxiv 2026-05-06	FUT_023 'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	68%
0.61	Towards Self-Referential Analytic Assessment: A Profile-Based Approach to L2 Writing Evaluation with LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-05	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.61	FDA ANDA206387: ALENDRONATE SODIUM (ALENDRONATE SODIUM) — IPCA LABS LTD	fda 2026-04-15	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.2.2	github_release 2022-06-15	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.61	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.1.7	github_release 2021-02-17	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.61	facebookresearch/faiss v1.13.1	github_release 2025-12-03	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.61	facebookresearch/balance 0.8.0	github_release 2023-04-26	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.61	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.28.post1	github_release 2024-09-13	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.61	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.27	github_release 2024-07-09	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.61	Who will become president first?	manifold 2026-05-07	240_051 After first state passes retraining law, all other states will race to fire people first Alex Wissner-Gross	Labor/Jobs	42%
0.61	ActCam: Zero-Shot Joint Camera and 3D Motion Control for Video Generation	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	SpatialEpiBench: Benchmarking Spatial Information and Epidemic Priors in Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-07	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.61	Measuring Black-Box Confidence via Reasoning Trajectories: Geometry, Coverage, and Verbalization	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Multimodal Deep Generative Model for Semi-Supervised Learning under Class Imbalance	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	P-Guide: Parameter-Efficient Prior Steering for Single-Pass CFG Inference	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	P-Guide: Parameter-Efficient Prior Steering for Single-Pass CFG Inference	arxiv 2026-05-07	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	CrossCult-KIBench: A Benchmark for Cross-Cultural Knowledge Insertion in MLLMs	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_034 The AI-native education model will see global adoption within approximately 5 years — driven by sub-$1,000 offline tablets and AI tutors capable of lifting historically lagging demographics (e.g. New Mexico, Sub-Saharan Africa) into top-tier performanc... Joe Liemandt	Education	22%
0.61	FedAttr: Towards Privacy-preserving Client-Level Attribution in Federated LLM Fine-tuning	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_059 Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds. Alex Finn	AI	62%
0.61	CLAD: A Clustered Label-Agnostic Federated Learning Framework for Joint Anomaly Detection and Attack Classification	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.61	Optimal Counterfactual Search in Tree Ensembles: A Study Across Modeling and Solution Paradigms	arxiv 2026-05-07	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Dynamic Controlled Variables Based Dynamic Self-Optimizing Control	arxiv 2026-05-07	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.61	FREPix: Frequency-Heterogeneous Flow Matching for Pixel-Space Image Generation	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.61	Decoupled PFNs: Identifiable Epistemic-Aleatoric Decomposition via Structured Synthetic Priors	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Preliminary Insights in Chronos Frequency Data Understanding and Reconstruction	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	LatentRAG: Latent Reasoning and Retrieval for Efficient Agentic RAG	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.61	PACE: Prune-And-Compress Ensemble Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Geometry-Aware Simplicial Message Passing	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	From 124 Million Tokens to 1,021 Neologisms: A Large-Scale Pipeline for Automatic Neologism Detection	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	GATHER: Convergence-Centric Hyper-Entity Retrieval for Zero-Shot Cell-Type Annotation	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	MemReranker: Reasoning-Aware Reranking for Agent Memory Retrieval	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil	AI	30%
0.61	Spherical Flows for Sampling Categorical Data	arxiv 2026-05-07	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	Spherical Flows for Sampling Categorical Data	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	TouchDrive: Electronics-Free Tactile Sensing Interface for Assistive Grasping	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Machine Learning Approaches to Building Quantum Circuits for Sets of Matrices	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.61	The Hagedorn Temperature as a Nonequilibrium Dynamical Bottleneck in String Thermodynamics	arxiv 2026-05-07	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Exact solutions, trajectories and radiation patterns in the classical relativistic Störmer problem	arxiv 2026-05-06	246_018 Killer app of compact fusion reactors will be interplanetary/interstellar propulsion, not data centers. Alex Wissner-Gross	Energy	36%
0.61	Medium Characterization with Hard Probes: From Cherenkov Light in QED to Jet Drift in QCD	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.61	Particle Production and Krylov Complexity of Circular Strings Near Black Hole Horizons	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	FDA ANDA060469: TETRACYCLINE HYDROCHLORIDE (TETRACYCLINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — IMPAX LABS	fda 2026-04-17	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	FDA BLA761183: TZIELD (TEPLIZUMAB-MZWV) — PROVENTION BIO INC	fda 2026-06-12	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.61	Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-12-29	237_025 We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. Peter Diamandis	AI	59%
0.61	Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-08	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	Uber Technologies, Inc (UBER) (CIK 0001543151)	edgar_8k 2026-05-08	244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.61	Will a rover from Earth land on the planet Venus by EOY 2051?(market prob: 68%)	manifold 2026-05-09	COD_SPC_004 Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	48%
0.61	Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.61	Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will the US unilaterally restructure outstanding Treasury debt (coupon, maturity, swap) by December 31, 2030?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-05-11	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.61	Uber Technologies, Inc (UBER) (CIK 0001543151)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.61	facebookresearch/spdl v0.4.0	github_release 2026-05-11	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.61	Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Wild vs. Avalanche(market prob: 34%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-12	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	FDA BLA761291: TECVAYLI (TECLISTAMAB-CQYV) — JANSSEN BIOTECH	fda 2026-05-06	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 2.0.0	github_release 2025-10-16	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.61	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.5.0	github_release 2024-03-21	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-13	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	Will this coordination-metrics market get at least 3 unique traders in its first 24 hours?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-05-13	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Aligning Flow Map Policies with Optimal Q-Guidance	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Aligning Flow Map Policies with Optimal Q-Guidance	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	TriBand-BEV: Real-Time LiDAR-Only 3D Pedestrian Detection via Height-Aware BEV and High-Resolution Feature Fusion	arxiv 2026-05-12	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.61	Multi-Task Representation Learning for Conservative Linear Bandits	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Augmented Lagrangian Method for Last-Iterate Convergence for Constrained MDPs	arxiv 2026-05-12	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Compositional Neural Operators for Multi-Dimensional Fluid Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	A Composite Activation Function for Learning Stable Binary Representations	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	FDA ANDA205807: GABAPENTIN (GABAPENTIN) — TEVA PHARMS USA	fda 2026-05-01	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-14	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	How many people will be regularised in Spain in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-12	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.61	Will "Maybe I was too harsh on deep learning theory..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-11	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Conformal Anomaly Detection in Python: Moving Beyond Heuristic Thresholds with 'nonconform'	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Limits of Personalizing Differential Privacy Budgets	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_059 Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds. Alex Finn	AI	62%
0.61	OSDN: Improving Delta Rule with Provable Online Preconditioning in Linear Attention	arxiv 2026-05-13	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.61	On the Limits of Latent Reuse in Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-05-13	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	Pretraining Language Models with Subword Regularization: An Empirical Study of BPE Dropout in Low-Resource NLP	arxiv 2026-05-13	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	The Diffusion Encoder	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Beyond Oversquashing: Understanding Signal Propagation in GNNs Via Observables	arxiv 2026-05-13	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	LightSplit: Practical Privacy-Preserving Split Learning via Orthogonal Projections	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Mix, Don't Tune: Bilingual Pre-Training Outperforms Hyperparameter Search in Data-Constrained Settings	arxiv 2026-05-13	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	GAGPO: Generalized Advantage Grouped Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-13	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.61	FDA ANDA075710: ALENDRONATE SODIUM (ALENDRONATE SODIUM) — IMPAX LABS INC	fda 2026-04-23	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	FDA ANDA201446: FALLBACK SOLO (LEVONORGESTREL) — LUPIN	fda 2026-05-01	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will SPY close above $750 on Friday, May 15, 2026?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-05-15	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.61	Will CISA add at least 25 vulnerabilities to the KEV catalog in May 2026?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-05-14	INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	48%
0.61	How will I perform at IPhO 2026?	manifold 2026-05-10	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Proposal and study of statistical features for string similarity computation and classification	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Logging Policy Design for Off-Policy Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.61	TFGN: Task-Free, Replay-Free Continual Pre-Training Without Catastrophic Forgetting at LLM Scale	arxiv 2026-05-14	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	PROCESS-2: A Benchmark Speech Corpus for Early Cognitive Impairment Detection	arxiv 2026-05-14	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.61	TAPIOCA: Why Task- Aware Pruning Improves OOD model Capability	arxiv 2026-05-14	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.61	The Rate-Distortion-Polysemanticity Tradeoff in SAEs	arxiv 2026-05-14	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Efficient Multi-objective Prompt Optimization via Pure-exploration Bandits	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_017 Prompt engineering evolves into a specialized commerce vector — marketplaces (PromptBase-style) emerge where skilled practitioners sell highly optimized, reliable text descriptions; proving AI displaces execution but rewards precise instructional logic... David Holz	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.61	Distributionally Robust Multi-Task Reinforcement Learning via Adaptive Task Sampling	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.61	Exemplar Partitioning for Mechanistic Interpretability	arxiv 2026-05-14	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.61	Exemplar Partitioning for Mechanistic Interpretability	arxiv 2026-05-14	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Guided Diffusion Sampling for Precipitation Forecast Interventions	arxiv 2026-05-14	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	ICED: Concept-level Machine Unlearning via Interpretable Concept Decomposition	arxiv 2026-05-14	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.61	TILT: Target-induced loss tilting under covariate shift	arxiv 2026-05-14	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Uncovering Trajectory and Topological Signatures in Multimodal Pediatric Sleep Embeddings	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Uncovering Trajectory and Topological Signatures in Multimodal Pediatric Sleep Embeddings	arxiv 2026-05-13	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	FDA NDA016730: DEXTROSE 5% IN PLASTIC CONTAINER (DEXTROSE) — B BRAUN	fda 2026-05-12	245_009 Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	45%
0.61	FDA BLA761331: WEZLANA (USTEKINUMAB-AUUB) — AMGEN INC	fda 2026-05-12	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	will there be a major linux virus in 2026?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-05-16	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.61	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-16	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision in August?	manifold 2026-05-16	235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.61	Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision in August?	manifold 2026-05-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	openai/openai-python v2.37.0	github_release 2026-05-15	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.61	Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will Litecoin go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-05-19	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Will TSLA close below $400 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-05-18	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.61	X-Energy, Inc. (XE) (CIK 0002088896)	edgar_8k 2026-05-19	246_010 SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	43%
0.61	Modality vs. Morphology: A Framework for Time Series Classification for Biological Signals	arxiv 2026-05-18	232_011 Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.61	TabH2O: A Unified Foundation Model for Tabular Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Generating Physically Consistent Molecules with Energy-Based Models	arxiv 2026-05-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Robust Player-Conditional Champion Ranking for League of Legends: Style Similarity, Mastery Priors, and Archetype-Constrained Discovery	arxiv 2026-05-18	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.61	Geometric Dictionary Learning of Dynamical Systems with Optimal Transport	arxiv 2026-05-18	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.61	AURORA: Contextual Orthogonalization for Geometric Representation Learning in Healthcare Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Memisis: Orchestrating and Evaluating Synthetic Data for Tabular Health Datasets	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-20	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-20	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.61	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Will NRG win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.61	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2025-09-22	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.61	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-30	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	What will Australia's total net overseas migration be for FY 25/26?	manifold 2026-05-29	AUT_007 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll... Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	13%
0.61	Will Kalshi be operational and legal in the US on January 1, 2030?(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-05-27	FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard	Media/Ads	50%
0.61	Will GTA VI sell more than 50 million copies by the end of 2027?(market prob: 91%)	manifold 2026-05-24	240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang	Markets/Stocks	78%
0.61	Tiny but Trusted: Efficient Vision-Language Reasoning for Time-Series Anomaly Detection	arxiv 2026-05-28	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	MedCase-Structured: A Text-to-FHIR Dataset for Benchmarking Diagnostic Reasoning in Clinically Realistic EHR Settings	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.61	HPO: Hysteretic Policy Optimization for Stable and Efficient Training under Sparse-Reward Regime	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	CalArena: A Large-Scale Post-Hoc Calibration Benchmark	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Meta-Programming for Linear-time Temporal Answer Set Programming	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	CityGen: Structure-Guided City-Style Synthesis for Cross-City Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-05-28	S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026 Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026	robotaxi_deployment	40%
0.61	Towards Localized and Disentangled Knowledge Editing for Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Multi-Legal-Bench: Evaluating LLMs on Legal Reasoning Across Jurisdictions, Languages, and Legal Traditions	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Multi-Legal-Bench: Evaluating LLMs on Legal Reasoning Across Jurisdictions, Languages, and Legal Traditions	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_025 The legal profession must transition from viewing AI as a 'prompter' to an active 'partner' — when an autonomous AI consultant hallucinates legal precedent or medical diagnosis, traditional corporate malpractice frameworks fail; courts must rapidly est... Ralph Losey	Other	77%
0.61	NaRA: Noise-Aware LoRA for Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning of Diffusion LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_059 Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds. Alex Finn	AI	62%
0.61	EviLink: Multi-Path Schema Linking with Uncertainty-Guided Evidence Acquisition for Large-Scale Text-to-SQL	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Xetrieval: Mechanistically Explaining Dense Retrieval	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.61	Fisher-Preserving Guidance: Training-Free Manifold Constraints for Safe Diffusion Control	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.61	A Triple-Modal Contrastive Learning Framework with Sequence, Graph, and 3D Features for Drug-Target Interaction Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-28	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	Feedback-to-Rubrics: Can We Learn Expert Criteria from Inline Comments?	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.61	MusTBENCH: Benchmarking and Advancing Temporal Grounding in Music LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	HyperPrecision: A Mathematica package for High-Precision Numerical Evaluation of Multivariate Hypergeometric Functions	arxiv 2026-05-28	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	FDA NDA208573: VENCLEXTA (VENETOCLAX) — ABBVIE	fda 2026-05-20	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	FDA ANDA078480: BRIMONIDINE TARTRATE (BRIMONIDINE TARTRATE) — APOTEX	fda 2026-05-20	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	huggingface/transformers v5.9.0	github_release 2026-05-20	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	Game Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+2.5)(market prob: 81%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi	Other	53%
0.61	Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.61	Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Rcb vs gt who is win(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-05-31	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.61	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner	Energy	57%
0.61	Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.61	Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.61	Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.61	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-29	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.61	Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-01	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	Starmer out before August?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-06-01	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.61	New elected president of Iran before EOM May 2027?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-05-31	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.61	FDA ANDA218488: EVEROLIMUS (EVEROLIMUS) — APOTEX	fda 2026-05-12	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.61	Will Lynn Vision win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.61	Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.61	AdaCodec: A Predictive Visual Code for Video MLLMs	arxiv 2026-06-01	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Initialization is Half the Battle: Generating Diverse Images from a Guidance Potential Posterior	arxiv 2026-06-01	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.61	Consistency Training while Mitigating Obfuscation via Rate Matching	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Boosting Multimodal Federated Learning via Chained Modality Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	ProbMoE: Differentiable Probabilistic Routing for Mixture-of-Experts	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.61	ProbMoE: Differentiable Probabilistic Routing for Mixture-of-Experts	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Minimax-Optimal Policy Regret in Partially Observable Markov Games	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	ArrythML: An Autoencoder-Based TinyML Approach for On-Device Arrhythmia Detection on Resource-Constrained Embedded Systems	arxiv 2026-06-01	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.61	A Doeblin-Anchored Contrastive Chart for Learning Markov Transition Kernels	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.61	IstGPT: LLM-based Anomaly Detection for Spatial-Temporal Graph in Industrial Systems	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Scalable Counterfactual Risk Estimation for Rare Events in Longitudinal Data	arxiv 2026-06-01	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.61	CEAR: Certified Ensemble Adversarial Robustness in DNNs	arxiv 2026-05-31	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.61	Target localization, identification and sensing using latent symmetries	arxiv 2026-05-31	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Mitigating Bias in Locally Constrained Decoding via Tractable Proposals	arxiv 2026-06-01	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	Mechanistic Diagnostics of Spatial Lexical Bias in Multimodal Large Language Model Spatial Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.61	Cost-Aware Diffusion Draft Trees for Speculative Decoding	arxiv 2026-06-01	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Why Do Self-Harm Prediction Models Struggle to Generalise? Lexical and Semantic Variations in Emergency Department Triage Notes	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.61	FDA ANDA220055: ANDA220055 ((unspecified)) — MSN LABORATORIES PRIVATE LIMITED	fda 2026-05-20	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will FC Universitario win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-23	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-03	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	Will I comment on this market? [Creator won't bet](market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-06-01	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.61	FDA ANDA077120: CARBIDOPA AND LEVODOPA (CARBIDOPA) — APOTEX INC	fda 2026-05-28	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will Maxx Crosby play for New York Jets next?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.61	Will I increase the number of pull ups I can do by 50%+ by 25th June?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-04	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will Russia gain more territory than it loses in June 2026?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-06-04	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.61	X-Energy, Inc. (XE) (CIK 0002088896)	edgar_8k 2026-06-04	246_010 SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	43%
0.61	Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-05?(market prob: 89%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will someone buy 1 block today on mysterybox.art?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-06-05	230_037 Handmade/human art will be astronomically more valuable in the future. Dave Blundin	Consumer	50%
0.61	How many subscribers will Destiny have by the end of June 2026?	manifold 2026-06-05	SPC_006 Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual revenues exceeding $20 billion — internal cash flow essentially eliminates SpaceX's requirement for public market capital and funds high-risk developme... SpaceX	Space	88%
0.61	Self-Augmenting Retrieval for Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	In-Context Multiple Instance Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	A Finite Certificate for the Positive $n=9$ Vasc Inequality	arxiv 2026-06-04	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	TLA-Prover: Verifiable TLA+ Specification Synthesis via Preference-Optimized Low-Rank Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-04	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	OrderGrad: Optimizing Beyond the Mean with Order-Statistic Policy Gradient Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.61	OPRD: On-Policy Representation Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-04	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.61	Measuring the sensitivity of LLM-based structured extraction to prompt, model, and schema choices in clinical discharge summaries	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.61	Agentic Molecular Recovery via Molecule-Aware Exploration	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	ViCuR: Visual Cues as Recoverable Privilege for Multimodal On-Policy Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Beyond Output Matching: Preserving Internal Geometry in NVFP4 LLM Distillatio	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.61	How abundant are good interpolators?	arxiv 2026-06-04	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	Quantifying the Privacy of Counterfactuals by Leveraging Membership Inference Attacks Against Synthetic Data	arxiv 2026-06-04	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.61	Representing Research Attention as Contextually Structured Flows	arxiv 2026-06-04	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Representing Research Attention as Contextually Structured Flows	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Field Validation of a Multi-Resolution ConvLSTM Framework for Retaining Wall Deformation Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-04	242_011 New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 years Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.61	STRIDE: Training Data Attribution via Sparse Recovery from Subset Perturbations	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	ColBERTSaR: Sparsified ColBERT Index via Product Quantization	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Beyond Text Following: Repairable Arbitration Reversals in Audio-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-03	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.61	Self-Evaluation Is Already There: Eliciting Latent Judge Calibration in Base LLMs with Minimal Data	arxiv 2026-06-03	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.61	Self-Evaluation Is Already There: Eliciting Latent Judge Calibration in Base LLMs with Minimal Data	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	DuDi: Dual-Signal Distillation with Cross-Lingual Verbalizer	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	Read What You Hear: Reference-Free Hypotheses Evaluation with Acoustic Discrepancy	arxiv 2026-06-03	237_024 Skippy will listen to this YouTube video and self-improve based on the transcript (Peter's expectation). Peter Diamandis	AI	45%
0.61	HapTile: A Haptic-Informed Vision-Tactile-Language-Action Dataset for Contact-Rich Imitation Learning	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Cooperative Circumnavigation for Multiple Unmanned Surface Vehicles Without External Localization	arxiv 2026-06-03	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.61	rsx: A high-performance streaming toolkit for RAD-seq sex determination	arxiv 2026-06-04	234_027 Element Biosciences will launch $600K desktop $100-per-genome machine in second half of 2026 Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	42%
0.61	FDA BLA761309: COLUMVI (GLOFITAMAB-GXBM) — GENENTECH INC	fda 2026-05-28	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Next unique country Tetra visits after 11th June 2026	manifold 2026-06-06	AI_002 Models matching the collective cognitive capacity of 'a country of geniuses in a datacenter' — acting simultaneously across all domains — could arrive as early as 2026 or 2027. Dario Amodei	AI	16%
0.61	What will be the sum of my AP scores releasing this July?	manifold 2026-06-06	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 8?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.61	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-07	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	Will the June 2026 ISM Services PMI be at least 50.0?(market prob: 87%)	manifold 2026-06-03	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.61	CULTURESCORE: Evaluating Cultural Faithfulness in Video Generation Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	232_006 YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content. Peter Diamandis	Media/Ads	51%
0.61	DIFFRACT: Neuralized Utility Maximization for Wireless Networks by Differentiable Programming	arxiv 2026-06-05	AI_016 The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an AI experience curve enables bulk problem-solving across engineering, medicine, and mathematics at a fraction of historical compute costs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	82%
0.61	Hearing the Unspoken: Language Model Priors for Acoustic Adversarial Attacks	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Bradley-Terry Rankings for Recommender Systems Across Dataset Taxonomies	arxiv 2026-06-05	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.61	Residual-Controlled Multiplier Learning for Stochastic Constrained Decision-Making	arxiv 2026-06-05	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.61	Bias in Filter Feature Selection Evaluation: A Meta-Analysis of Datasets, Baselines, and Experimental Design Choices	arxiv 2026-06-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%