Validations Queue

47,884 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 3 of 30, 200 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

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SimDocSourcePredDomainPrior
0.70manifold
2026-04-23
242_047
Frontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 years
Alex Wissner-Gross
Biotech/Longevity39%
0.70manifold
2026-05-05
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.70manifold
2026-05-27
239_002
AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest
Elon Musk
AI44%
0.70manifold
2026-06-02
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks45%
0.70manifold
2026-06-06
241_060
Data centers will be built in space / rockets will carry data centers
Peter Diamandis
Space54%
0.70manifold
2026-04-30
S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030
Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030
humanoid_deployment20%
0.70manifold
2026-05-01
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.70manifold
2026-05-03
240_052
Uploading consciousness (whole brain emulation) really will be you in the future
Alex Wissner-Gross
Biotech/Longevity41%
0.70manifold
2026-05-08
235_035
Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.70manifold
2026-05-12
238_040
Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI34%
0.70manifold
2026-05-16
234_046
AI vs AI will dominate cybersecurity, not humans
Dave Blundin
AI47%
0.70manifold
2026-05-24
247_020
Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustment
Dave Blundin
Labor/Jobs50%
0.70manifold
2026-05-29
CMQ_060
Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US.
Michael Saylor
Crypto20%
0.70manifold
2026-06-05
S_IPO_TRILLION_2028
First $1T+ IPO in 2028
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.69manifold
2026-04-27
234_046
AI vs AI will dominate cybersecurity, not humans
Dave Blundin
AI47%
0.69manifold
2026-04-30
247_002
Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI38%
0.69manifold
2026-05-01
238_005
By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.69manifold
2026-05-06
FUT_023
'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri...
Ian Bremmer
Geopolitics68%
0.69manifold
2026-05-16
ROB_023
SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026.
Gwynne Shotwell
Space58%
0.69manifold
2026-06-03
238_005
By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.69manifold
2026-05-04
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI31%
0.69manifold
2026-05-04
CMQ_045
Agentic AI will create additional CPU market space of $10B-$100B by 2030, potentially driving total global server CPU market well beyond $100B.
Morgan Stanley
Semis43%
0.69manifold
2026-05-12
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.69manifold
2026-05-26
CMQ_007
Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030.
Dario Amodei
AI41%
0.69manifold
2026-05-26
ROB_023
SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026.
Gwynne Shotwell
Space58%
0.69manifold
2026-06-04
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.69manifold
2026-04-29
246_029
Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI54%
0.69manifold
2026-04-23
246_010
SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks43%
0.69manifold
2026-05-01
231_007
AI will analyze scientific literature and shock humanity by revealing wrong turns made over the past century.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.69manifold
2026-05-06
FUT_007
Global economy accelerates into structural demographic depression 2026-2031 — Baby Boomer cohort transitions from high-velocity capital creators/consumers to capital-draining healthcare-dependent retirees; Gen X + Millennials lack numerical mass to rep...
Peter Zeihan
Macro/Economy41%
0.69manifold
2026-05-04
CMQ_020
Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Macro/Economy67%
0.69manifold
2026-05-05
246_002
SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks46%
0.69manifold
2026-05-11
247_046
AI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025
Peter Diamandis
AI55%
0.69manifold
2026-05-29
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.69
Bitcoin $82K in June?(market prob: 2%)
manifold
2026-06-02
CMQ_060
Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US.
Michael Saylor
Crypto20%
0.69manifold
2026-06-05
241_051
AI systems eventually won't have the ability to do completely new things
Eric Schmidt
AI38%
0.69manifold
2026-04-27
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto34%
0.69manifold
2026-04-26
229_023
First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe.
Brett Adcock
Robotics38%
0.69manifold
2026-05-01
AI_022
80% of all jobs globally face total disruption from AI automation by 2035 — Khosrowshahi's high-water-mark Labor-displacement claim, amplifying Yang's 'Great Disemboweling' to a decade-long full-economy transformation.
Dara Khosrowshahi
Labor/Jobs26%
0.69manifold
2026-05-01
SPC_028
Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles.
Salim Ismail
Labor/Jobs37%
0.69
Bitcoin $82K in May?(market prob: 96%)
manifold
2026-05-01
CMQ_060
Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US.
Michael Saylor
Crypto20%
0.69manifold
2026-05-15
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.69manifold
2026-05-16
237_009
ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months.
Alex Finn
AI41%
0.69manifold
2026-05-29
238_027
OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.69manifold
2026-05-27
229_001
Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots.
Brett Adcock
Robotics62%
0.69manifold
2026-06-03
238_040
Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI34%
0.69manifold
2026-06-04
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI31%
0.69manifold
2026-06-06
234_045
Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances
Alex Wissner-Gross
Space37%
0.69manifold
2026-06-05
SPC_006
Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual revenues exceeding $20 billion — internal cash flow essentially eliminates SpaceX's requirement for public market capital and funds high-risk developme...
SpaceX
Space88%
0.69manifold
2026-04-26
FUT_008
China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani...
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitics30%
0.69manifold
2026-05-01
246_029
Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI54%
0.69manifold
2026-05-10
239_002
AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest
Elon Musk
AI44%
0.69manifold
2026-05-10
ROB_002
99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primary human bottleneck in digital creation, making the automation of the AI researcher by 2027 a mechanical certainty.
Kevin Weil
Labor/Jobs40%
0.69manifold
2026-05-11
237_010
In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC.
Alex Finn
Crypto43%
0.69manifold
2026-05-11
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.69manifold
2026-05-12
238_027
OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.69manifold
2026-05-29
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks45%
0.69manifold
2026-05-31
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.69manifold
2026-06-01
238_005
By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.69manifold
2026-04-25
IND_009
Artificial Superintelligence arrives by roughly 2030 — shortly thereafter all human illnesses will be cured 'much sooner than we think'; mechanism: AI not just predicting protein structures but generating novel biological designs revolutionizing drug d...
Demis Hassabis
Biotech/Longevity19%
0.69manifold
2026-04-23
SEM_032
15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI/Mathematics15%
0.69manifold
2026-05-01
CMQ_003
By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintelligence.
Sam Altman
AI23%
0.69manifold
2026-05-01
246_002
SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks46%
0.69manifold
2026-05-06
246_015
Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon).
Elon Musk
Space42%
0.69manifold
2026-05-06
246_007
SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks35%
0.69manifold
2026-05-06
235_005
AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound.
Dave Blundin
AI49%
0.69manifold
2026-05-07
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.69manifold
2026-05-06
AI_002
Models matching the collective cognitive capacity of 'a country of geniuses in a datacenter' — acting simultaneously across all domains — could arrive as early as 2026 or 2027.
Dario Amodei
AI16%
0.69manifold
2026-05-13
231_015
Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI34%
0.69manifold
2026-05-13
246_030
DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Markets/Stocks34%
0.69manifold
2026-05-16
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto34%
0.69manifold
2026-05-15
S_IPO_TRILLION_2028
First $1T+ IPO in 2028
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.69manifold
2026-05-18
IND_005
Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~...
Ben Lamm
Biotech/Longevity33%
0.69manifold
2026-05-16
240_020
New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI
Dave Blundin
AI46%
0.69manifold
2026-05-17
235_008
Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.69manifold
2026-06-01
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI31%
0.69manifold
2026-06-01
232_013
Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.
Jimmy Ba
AI47%
0.69manifold
2026-06-02
238_027
OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.69manifold
2026-04-29
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.69manifold
2026-04-27
246_027
AI models will be capable enough for terrorist groups to create novel pathogens (near future).
Sam Altman
AI51%
0.69manifold
2026-04-25
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.69manifold
2026-05-01
232_013
Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.
Jimmy Ba
AI47%
0.69manifold
2026-05-01
IND_016
By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca...
Gwynne Shotwell
Space22%
0.69manifold
2026-05-02
ROB_004
By approximately 2027-2028, collaborative AI programs will essentially 'solve physics' — unifying general relativity and quantum mechanics into a new mathematical framework; the core mission of DeepMind is to 'first solve AI, then use AI to solve every...
Demis Hassabis
AI8%
0.69manifold
2026-05-04
234_018
GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI38%
0.69manifold
2026-05-04
INF_001
Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction.
Leopold Aschenbrenner
AI48%
0.69manifold
2026-05-04
S_GRID_50GW_2027
50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027
energy_grid_expansion40%
0.69manifold
2026-05-10
AI_006
True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro...
Andrej Karpathy
AI38%
0.69manifold
2026-05-11
CMQ_028
NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026).
Jensen Huang
Semis72%
0.69manifold
2026-05-15
S_IPO_TRILLION_2027
First $1T+ IPO in 2027
ipo_trillion_plus40%
0.69manifold
2026-05-17
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets55%
0.69manifold
2026-05-25
S_IPO_TRILLION_2028
First $1T+ IPO in 2028
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.69manifold
2026-05-31
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto34%
0.69manifold
2026-06-03
242_007
Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value
Prediction markets
Markets/Stocks38%
0.69manifold
2026-06-05
231_035
SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.
Peter Diamandis
Space48%
0.69manifold
2026-06-05
SPC_002
A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o...
Morgan Stanley
Markets/Stocks45%
0.69manifold
2026-05-01
AI_008
Once 2027 AGI arrives (AI researchers capable of autonomous research), the intelligence explosion begins — compressing roughly a decade of human-led algorithmic progress into a single year and culminating in Superintelligence by 2030.
Leopold Aschenbrenner
AI29%
0.69manifold
2026-05-01
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.69manifold
2026-05-04
235_008
Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.69manifold
2026-05-06
CMQ_011
AGI is plausible within 10 years, BUT alignment and safety must be solved BEFORE reaching AGI — not concurrently, and not after.
Demis Hassabis
AI39%
0.69manifold
2026-05-16
235_035
Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.69manifold
2026-05-30
236_007
US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future
Andrew Yang
Macro/Economy50%
0.69manifold
2026-06-02
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI45%
0.69manifold
2026-06-02
INF_001
Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction.
Leopold Aschenbrenner
AI48%
0.69manifold
2026-06-03
246_029
Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI54%
0.69manifold
2026-06-02
246_054
Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Space37%
0.69manifold
2026-04-29
247_006
Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026
Peter Diamandis
AI50%
0.69manifold
2026-04-23
241_055
Next frontier of AI infrastructure is space
Peter Diamandis
Space51%
0.69manifold
2026-05-01
INF_047
2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex.
Chamath Palihapitiya
Macro/Economy35%
0.69manifold
2026-04-29
ROB_003
AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery in just 5 years — effectively bringing 2050-era science to 2030. Already manifesting in resolution of long-standing mathematical proofs (e.g. Erdős problems) via advanced reas...
Kevin Weil
AI45%
0.69
Bitcoin $84K in May?(market prob: 75%)
manifold
2026-05-01
CMQ_060
Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US.
Michael Saylor
Crypto20%
0.69manifold
2026-05-08
SEM_039
Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory.
Jack Dorsey
Semis/ASICs83%
0.69manifold
2026-05-15
SPC_012
SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical prerequisite for future Mars missions, enabling Starship depot-based beyond-LEO operations.
Peter Diamandis
Space41%
0.69manifold
2026-06-05
236_030
AI will create trillions of dollars of value and transform how we work and live
Andrew Yang
AI50%
0.69manifold
2026-04-29
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto34%
0.69manifold
2026-04-29
AUT_012
True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula...
Demis Hassabis
AI38%
0.69manifold
2026-04-25
248_027
Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos.
Dave Blundin
Other39%
0.69manifold
2026-04-30
229_023
First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe.
Brett Adcock
Robotics38%
0.69manifold
2026-05-01
238_071
Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.69manifold
2026-05-06
SPC_012
SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical prerequisite for future Mars missions, enabling Starship depot-based beyond-LEO operations.
Peter Diamandis
Space41%
0.69manifold
2026-05-11
241_011
By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill
Peter Diamandis
Labor/Jobs55%
0.69manifold
2026-05-17
CMQ_028
NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026).
Jensen Huang
Semis72%
0.69manifold
2026-05-18
232_057
First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.
Dave Blundin
Robotics35%
0.69manifold
2026-05-18
237_009
ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months.
Alex Finn
AI41%
0.69manifold
2026-05-16
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto34%
0.69manifold
2026-05-17
235_035
Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.69manifold
2026-05-31
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.69manifold
2026-05-31
237_011
AI agents will have voices in the near future.
Alex Finn
AI43%
0.69manifold
2026-05-31
CMQ_001
By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks.
Sam Altman
AI45%
0.69
Bitcoin $78K in June?(market prob: 4%)
manifold
2026-06-02
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto34%
0.69manifold
2026-06-03
242_057
Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission
Peter Diamandis
Space56%
0.69manifold
2026-06-02
242_004
Musk ecosystem will lap Nvidia by 1-2 orders of magnitude
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks41%
0.68manifold
2026-05-11
232_060
We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI44%
0.68manifold
2026-05-17
240_010
NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.68manifold
2026-05-27
229_014
Figure will be able to make millions of robots via BotQ and future BotQ expansion.
Brett Adcock
Robotics35%
0.68manifold
2026-05-26
242_033
Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032
Dave Blundin
Labor/Jobs49%
0.68manifold
2026-05-25
247_040
AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin
Alex Wissner-Gross
Crypto26%
0.68manifold
2026-06-05
230_038
AI will be net super-humanizing long-term despite short-term substitution effects.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.68manifold
2026-04-28
SPC_013
As 15th NASA Administrator (confirmed December 2025), Isaacman predicts NASA will launch astronauts into space every 6-9 months via commercial partnerships — plus aggressive reinforcement of lunar-lander programs to establish a permanent surface presen...
Jared Isaacman
Space46%
0.68manifold
2026-05-01
240_001
NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027
Jensen Huang
Markets/Stocks78%
0.68manifold
2026-05-17
SEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets68%
0.68manifold
2026-05-19
248_042
A sewing robot already exists; logistics robots will automate trillion-dollar stitching industry.
Salim Ismail
Robotics39%
0.68manifold
2026-05-30
247_038
Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor)
Michael Saylor
Crypto48%
0.68manifold
2026-05-26
CYB_005
'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio...
Ray Kurzweil
AI30%
0.68manifold
2026-05-26
S_NO_AI_PAUSE_5Y
No major AI pause through 2031
ai_regulatory_pause75%
0.68manifold
2026-04-29
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.68manifold
2026-04-26
231_010
China has peaked and is going to be on descent.
Salim Ismail
Geopolitics44%
0.68manifold
2026-04-23
247_027
Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.68manifold
2026-05-06
248_038
We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash.
Salim Ismail
Robotics34%
0.68manifold
2026-05-04
230_051
Amazon/hyperscalers will continue pouring free cash flow into AI data centers, robots and LEO satellites (opex cannibalized by capex).
Alex Wissner-Gross
Markets/Stocks38%
0.68manifold
2026-05-05
240_027
SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks74%
0.68manifold
2026-05-06
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI31%
0.68manifold
2026-05-18
ROB_011
An Optimus unit will be sent to Mars by 2026 — signaling the role of autonomous robotics in extraterrestrial colonization and intertwining robotic + interplanetary expansion; robotic precursors precede biological humans in planetary exploration.
Elon Musk
Space11%
0.68manifold
2026-06-01
SEM_030
S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap).
Mike Wilson
Capital Markets43%
0.68manifold
2026-06-01
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.68manifold
2026-06-05
236_028
AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately
Andrew Yang
Consumer51%
0.68manifold
2026-04-28
232_054
SSI (Ilya Sutskever's company), if successful, will change a lot of things.
Ben Horowitz
AI42%
0.68manifold
2026-04-23
232_013
Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.
Jimmy Ba
AI47%
0.68manifold
2026-05-01
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.68manifold
2026-05-01
S_IPO_TRILLION_2027
First $1T+ IPO in 2027
ipo_trillion_plus40%
0.68manifold
2026-05-08
CMQ_060
Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US.
Michael Saylor
Crypto20%
0.68manifold
2026-05-30
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto34%
0.68manifold
2026-05-26
234_014
We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks59%
0.68manifold
2026-05-26
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.68manifold
2026-05-25
247_027
Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.68manifold
2026-06-01
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.68manifold
2026-05-31
233_005
Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year.
Dave Blundin
AI51%
0.68manifold
2026-05-31
INF_073
AI will become smarter than any single human by end of 2025 or 2026, and smarter than all of humanity combined by 2030 or 2031.
Elon Musk
AI48%
0.68manifold
2026-06-05
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.68manifold
2026-04-27
246_025
Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026).
Sam Altman
AI47%
0.68manifold
2026-05-01
SEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets68%
0.68manifold
2026-05-04
INF_032
Residential electricity costs are a structural byproduct of DC buildout: Washington state household electricity costs rose 10.3% from 2024 to 2025 directly tied to infrastructure strain, with utility-proposed rate increases projecting residential price...
Seattle Met / Washington State regulators
Macro/Economy54%
0.68manifold
2026-05-08
S_ROBOTAXI_NATIONWIDE_2028
Robotaxi nationwide expansion by Nov 2028
robotaxi_deployment45%
0.68manifold
2026-05-16
ROB_001
If hundreds of millions of AGI instances are deployed simultaneously by 2027 to automate the algorithms governing their own architectures, the industry will compress a decade of human-led algorithmic progress into less than a year — culminating in 'run...
Leopold Aschenbrenner
AI29%
0.68manifold
2026-05-16
IND_016
By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca...
Gwynne Shotwell
Space22%
0.68manifold
2026-05-18
232_012
US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets.
Ben Horowitz
Geopolitics44%
0.68manifold
2026-05-29
246_006
OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks48%
0.68manifold
2026-05-27
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI31%
0.68manifold
2026-06-03
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.68manifold
2026-06-05
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.68manifold
2026-05-04
236_047
New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming
Peter Diamandis
Macro/Economy55%
0.68manifold
2026-05-09
SEM_035
World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027).
Eric Schmidt
AI/Cognition45%
0.68manifold
2026-05-16
234_021
OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027
Peter Diamandis
AI50%
0.68manifold
2026-05-28
COD_SPC_002
The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028
Codex Research Pack
Space22%
0.68manifold
2026-05-25
246_005
OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks55%
0.68manifold
2026-05-25
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.68manifold
2026-05-31
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.68manifold
2026-06-04
FUT_016
Next 5 years (2026-2030) require individuals + organizations to adopt 'FLUX' superpowers — ability to transform constant uncertainty into strategic advantage. Traditional linear career paths dissolve entirely by 2030, replaced by fluid portfolio-based ...
April Rinne
Labor/Jobs44%
0.68
Bitcoin $85K in May?(market prob: 66%)
manifold
2026-05-05
CMQ_060
Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US.
Michael Saylor
Crypto20%
0.68manifold
2026-05-05
ROB_023
SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026.
Gwynne Shotwell
Space58%
0.68manifold
2026-05-08
S_ROBOTAXI_NATIONWIDE_2028
Robotaxi nationwide expansion by Nov 2028
robotaxi_deployment45%
0.68manifold
2026-05-11
242_028
AI could automate 25% of US work hours
Goldman Sachs
Labor/Jobs39%
0.68manifold
2026-05-12
246_006
OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks48%
0.68manifold
2026-05-06
S_AGI_MID_2029
AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path
agi_general_capability35%
0.68manifold
2026-05-18
234_049
First lunar and Mars cities will be built from scratch via humanoid robot construction
Alex Wissner-Gross
Space36%
0.68manifold
2026-05-27
235_005
AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound.
Dave Blundin
AI49%
0.68manifold
2026-06-01
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.68manifold
2026-06-02
CMQ_007
Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030.
Dario Amodei
AI41%
0.68
Bitcoin $80K in June?(market prob: 3%)
manifold
2026-06-02
CMQ_060
Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US.
Michael Saylor
Crypto20%
0.68manifold
2026-06-05
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%