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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.66 | Will 1USD>97INR before 10th June 2026?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | |
| 0.66 | Will 1USD>97INR before 10th June 2026?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-04-29 | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | 20% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 32% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-04-30 | COD_SPC_001 Artemis III flies as an Earth-orbit HLS/EVA suit test mission in 2027, not a lunar landing Codex Research Pack | Space | 44% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.66 | Will Bitcoin go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn | Consumer | 77% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | ||
| 0.66 | Will OKLO reach $200 by the end of 2026?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.66 | Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 25,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030?(market prob: 72%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 243_031 Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.66 | Will I lose my current job by the end of 2026?(market prob: 23%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 231_041 Radical massive job destruction is imminent; new creation will lag, causing devastation for a few years. Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 54% | |
| 0.66 | Will WTI close(or open) $108 in May 2026? (After May 10)(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 48% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 48% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-18 | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | 15% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-28 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-24 | CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 53% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-06-01 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 53% | ||
| 0.66 | Bitcoin $60k in June?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 245_004 EY estimates the extinct-species educational/consumer market at $1.7 trillion annually EY (Ernst & Young) | Consumer | 43% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-06-03 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-06-06 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | ||
| 0.66 | Will Qwen 3.6+ 122B A10B be open weights before July 2026?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.66 | Will China Collapse before 2035? (GDP down 20%)(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | 234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-04-24 | FUT_016 Next 5 years (2026-2030) require individuals + organizations to adopt 'FLUX' superpowers — ability to transform constant uncertainty into strategic advantage. Traditional linear career paths dissolve entirely by 2030, replaced by fluid portfolio-based ... April Rinne | Labor/Jobs | 44% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-04-24 | SEM_017 TSMC will produce over 10M wafers/month total in 2026, including ~100K/mo at 2nm and ~200K/mo at 3nm. TSMC (All-In Podcast analysis) | Semis | 65% | ||
| 0.66 | Will I get a girlfriend in the year 2026(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.66 | will i get a medal at the IPO 2026?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 48% | |
| 0.66 | Will 50% or more of the Erdos problems be solved at the end of 2030?(market prob: 68%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 230_034 Abundance will be achieved by 2035. Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-01 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.66 | Bitcoin $67K in May?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-02 | IND_017 Arrival of the 'AI CEO Billionaire' in 2026 — AI will automate knowledge work so effectively that a synthetic entity could run a billion-dollar enterprise autonomously. Dawn of 'Agentic Era' begins 2027, where autonomous AI agents seamlessly integrate ... Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 11% | ||
| 0.66 | Will I make USAMO in 2027(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.66 | Will a bot win prize drawing this year?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.66 | Will QCOM stock reach $300 by the end of 2026?(market prob: 74%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 247_026 Anthropic may be first Frontier Lab to generate $1 trillion in revenue via enterprise agents Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.66 | Will OKLO reach $200 by the end of 2026?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-10 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 234_044 Intelligence does not have a fixed upper bound; governance will cap it before IQ Salim Ismail | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-18 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.66 | 2026 rate hike parlay (Fed + ECB + BOJ + BOE + PBC)(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.66 | Will Bitcoin be higher than right now, exactly 7 days from now?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.66 | Bitcoin $60k in June?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.66 | Bitcoin $65K in June?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 248_031 Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 39% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-04-24 | CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.65 | Will Ben Yan experience AI psychosis in 2026?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-02 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.65 | Will I make USAMO in 2027(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-13 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-15 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | ||
| 0.65 | Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-16 | CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 235_044 AI sector will grow from $20T to $30-40T of $50T total US public market cap. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.65 | Will a quantum computing CEO go to jail before 2030?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | |
| 0.65 | Trump goes to space in 2028? [Polymarket](market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | 237_025 We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. Peter Diamandis | AI | 59% | |
| 0.65 | Will I complete Quicktakeshaven before August 2026(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-26 | AI_004 AI will be 'smarter than the smartest human' by 2026, driven by fully automated recursive self-improvement loops compounding cognitive gains without human intervention. Elon Musk | AI | 17% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 235_001 Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-30 | 245_004 EY estimates the extinct-species educational/consumer market at $1.7 trillion annually EY (Ernst & Young) | Consumer | 43% | ||
| 0.65 | Will Bitcoin be higher than right now, exactly 7 days from now?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-01 | IND_021 February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... Jack Dorsey | Labor/Jobs | 74% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 240_058 OpenAI throttling back on $1.6T Stargate plans Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.65 | Will Vietnam's real GDP grow by at least 12% in 2026(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | AUT_007 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll... Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 13% | |
| 0.65 | Bitcoin $78K in June?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 242_057 Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission Peter Diamandis | Space | 56% | ||
| 0.65 | Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $100 on May 11, 2026?(market prob: 62%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.65 | Will I get an AI lab offer?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | 232_052 Lowered interest rates will drive AI agent and robot purchases instead of hiring. Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 46% | |
| 0.65 | Will I make IMO in 2028(market prob: 49%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-03 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.65 | Will a bot win prize drawing this year?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.65 | Will a bot win prize drawing this year?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.65 | will i get gold at amm 2026(market prob: 78%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.65 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 59752(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.65 | Will Flygon get a mega evolution by the end of 2028?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 246_039 Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 49% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-13 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.65 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 153(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.65 | Will @mayaofspring pass JLPT N1 in December 2026?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 234_010 Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon Dave Blundin | Defense | 50% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-15 | SPC_031 SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 2008 to under $1,000 today — a >15x reduction in <20 years, transforming space access economics and enabling the simultaneous hyper-deflation of launch cos... SpaceX | Space | 88% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-26 | COD_SPC_001 Artemis III flies as an Earth-orbit HLS/EVA suit test mission in 2027, not a lunar landing Codex Research Pack | Space | 44% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.65 | Bitcoin $82K in June?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-04-29 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-04-28 | SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin | AI/China | 45% | ||
| 0.65 | Will ClankerView get 100 paying users in 2026?(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.65 | Will MISO Indiana Hub 2028 day-ahead annual average exceed US$60/MWh?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_012 AI data-center power consumption will grow by approximately 126 GW annually through 2028 — comparable to Canada's total annual power demand, and representing nearly 20% of projected global power growth through 2030. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 46% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-06 | COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 42% | ||
| 0.65 | Any new Claude Model Before May 16th?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-08 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | ||
| 0.65 | Will bitcoin rise to 85k before the Strait of Hormuz is freely open?(market prob: 71%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.65 | Will I have another peak moment in the next 5 years?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.65 | Will WTI close(or open) $108 in May 2026? (After May 10)(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-17 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 50% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-17 | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | 20% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-15 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | ||
| 0.65 | Will the May 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 238_017 Uber will automate approximately 30% of its employment this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 51% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.65 | OPQA (OpenAI-proof QA) hits 20% before 2027(market prob: 59%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 242_057 Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission Peter Diamandis | Space | 56% | ||
| 0.65 | S&P 500 hits 8000 in 2026?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.65 | Micron closes above $1,100 at end of month?(market prob: 71%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-05 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.65 | Will there be a data center on the moon Europa by EOY 2066?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | COD_SPC_004 Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 48% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 240_003 NVIDIA will lock up 70%+ of TSMC's 3nm node volume Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.65 | Will semiconductors outperform the S&P 500 in 2026?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.65 | Will Ben Yan experience AI psychosis in 2026?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.65 | Will Google announce Gemini 4 at I/O 2026 (May 19-20)?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 238_027 OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.65 | Will I make IMO in 2028(market prob: 49%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 48% | |
| 0.65 | Will anybody win the Prize Drawings more than once in 2026?(market prob: 83%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.65 | Will a bot win prize drawing this year?(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 62% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 235_001 Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.65 | Will OKLO reach $200 by the end of 2026?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 247_008 Anthropic will try to hit $200 billion ARR, not reach trillion the following year Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.65 | Will I be alive at the end of 2029?(market prob: 91%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 230_034 Abundance will be achieved by 2035. Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.65 | Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $100 on May 21, 2026?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.65 | Will Solana trade above $100 by the end of May 2026?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 238_052 $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) Elon Musk | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-17 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.65 | OPQA (OpenAI-proof QA) hits 20% before 2027(market prob: 59%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.65 | GOOG > AMD at market close on August 31st?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-24 | IND_004 True AGI remains approximately a decade away (circa 2034) — AGI will NOT manifest as sudden uncontrollable explosion; will smoothly 'blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries of 2% GDP growth'. Labor markets will adapt through traditional economic absorpt... Andrej Karpathy | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 53% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-01 | SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin | AI/China | 45% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 231_031 OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 58% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | ||
| 0.65 | Will the May 2026 US Core CPI be reported at 0.3% or higher (MoM)?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 46% | |
| 0.65 | Silver price above 90.000 in June 2026(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 37% | |
| 0.65 | Will I get a GF in the year of 2026(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 246_012 Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | ||
| 0.65 | Bitcoin $82K in May?(market prob: 96%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.65 | Will a rover from Earth land on the moon Ganymede by EOY 2046?(market prob: 77%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | COD_SPC_004 Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 48% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-02 | CMQ_001 By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. Sam Altman | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.65 | Will I be alive at the end of 2029?(market prob: 91%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 247_031 Virtual cell simulation by end of decade (2030) Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 42% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | ||
| 0.65 | Will the Shiller P/E Ratio hit a new all-time high before Jan 1, 2030?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.65 | Will the Shiller P/E Ratio hit a new all-time high before Jan 1, 2030?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.65 | Will the Shiller P/E Ratio hit a new all-time high before Jan 1, 2030?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.65 | Will Apple's WWDC 2026 keynote include any verbal reference to OpenAI?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.65 | Will Bitcoin trade above $90,000 between now and June 1, 2026?(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.65 | Will a humanoid robot walk on the mars before a human does?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 247_044 Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environments Mark Cuban | Robotics | 28% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.65 | OPQA (OpenAI-proof QA) hits 20% before 2027(market prob: 59%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | ||
| 0.65 | S&P 500 hits 8000 in 2026?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.65 | GOOG > AMD at market close on August 31st?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | INF_042 Current market panic over AI compute and power will follow the historical pattern 'shortage leads to oversupply' — trillions flowing into data centers, GPU manufacturing, and energy procurement will ultimately crash the marginal cost of both compute an... Marc Andreessen | Macro/Economy | 48% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-06-07 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.65 | Tesla reaches $400 before $300?(market prob: 70%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | ROB_009 External sales of Tesla Optimus will commence in 2026 at approximately $30,000 retail price — a $30K capital expenditure for a 24/7-capable machine represents a 36-week payback period vs the lowest US minimum wage; fundamentally alters the mathematics ... Elon Musk | Robotics | 18% | |
| 0.65 | Will warfare robots kill multitudes in a city?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 246_049 Dyson swarm will host trillions of AI agents if we get it. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 24% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-04-30 | COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 42% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | ||
| 0.65 | S&P500 closes at 7,500.00 before End Of May 2026?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.65 | Will I pay any money to Manifold during 2026 for something in the site?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.65 | Will MISO Indiana Hub 2028 day-ahead annual average exceed US$60/MWh?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_010 US data-center demand will reach 74 GW by 2028 against a projected ~49 GW power-access shortfall — structural gap driven by retiring coal/gas, aging grid, and ~7-year interconnection queues. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 56% | |
| 0.65 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 142(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | ||
| 0.65 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 142(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-09 | CMQ_028 NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026). Jensen Huang | Semis | 72% | ||
| 0.65 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 3⅖(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.65 | Will Codex be announced to have hit 5M WAUs before June?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 231_002 Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.65 | Will Apple mention OpenAI or ChatGPT in its WWDC 2026 keynote?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.65 | Will @mayaofspring pass JLPT N1 in December 2026?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | |
| 0.65 | Will Bitcoin (Coinbase BTC-USD) close above $85,000 on June 1, 2026?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.65 | Will Michael Levin be awarded the Nobel Prize?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | 231_008 AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.65 | Will Polymarket feature a market about Teamfight Tactics before 2028?(market prob: 43%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | ||
| 0.65 | Will NSSB get delayed by more than 30 minutes?(market prob: 97%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.65 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.65 | Will Bitcoin be below 71K at end of week?(market prob: 98%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | |
| 0.65 | Elon Musk's Death(market prob: 1%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 247_028 Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | |
| 0.65 | Will US unemployment exceed 5% in 2026?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 238_017 Uber will automate approximately 30% of its employment this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 51% |