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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.61	Machine Learning Approaches to Building Quantum Circuits for Sets of Matrices	arxiv 2026-05-07	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Emergence of conformal properties in Finite Grand Unified Theories via reduction of couplings	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	FDA ANDA060469: TETRACYCLINE HYDROCHLORIDE (TETRACYCLINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — IMPAX LABS	fda 2026-04-17	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	Will @E142 write a comment asking @DottedCalculator a question on this market (and @DottedCalculator responds)?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-05-06	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.61	Sabres vs. Canadiens(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will US Average Gas Price fall below $4.10 in May 2026?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-05-10	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Spread: Thunder (-10.5)(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Spread: Thunder (-11.5)(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-01-07	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.61	Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	How long will Trump and Xi shake hands when they meet? [Polymarket]	manifold 2026-05-11	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.61	price of silver at the end of may?	manifold 2026-05-11	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.61	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 59752(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-11	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	SOLAREDGE TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (SEDG) (CIK 0001419612)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.61	facebookresearch/spdl v0.0.13	github_release 2025-05-02	AUT_021 Defining software movement of 2026: startups building autonomous platforms specifically designed to clean/structure/continuously validate multimodal data — unstructured corporate sludge (PDFs, logs, videos, emails) causes autonomous agentic workflows t... Marc Andreessen	AI	57%
0.61	Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	BTC closes above $85k at end of month?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-05-11	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.61	ON SEMICONDUCTOR CORP (ON) (CIK 0001097864)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.61	FDA NDA218316: WEGOVY (SEMAGLUTIDE) — NOVO	fda 2026-05-05	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	FDA ANDA078945: ONDANSETRON HYDROCHLORIDE PRESERVATIVE FREE (ONDANSETRON HYDROCHLORIDE) — AVET LIFESCIENCES	fda 2026-05-01	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	facebookresearch/HolisticTraceAnalysis v0.2.0	github_release 2023-05-22	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.61	Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-04-22	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will "Empowerment, corrigibility, etc. are simple a..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-05-13	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.61	Xi JinPing visits USA before July 31?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-13	238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	45%
0.61	If the Googlebook is launched, will it still be available a year later?(market prob: 73%)	manifold 2026-05-13	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Environment-Adaptive Preference Optimization for Wildfire Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Scalable Token-Level Hallucination Detection in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-12	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.61	Multi-Variable Conformal Prediction: Optimizing Prediction Sets without Data Splitting	arxiv 2026-05-12	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	Hypernetworks for Dynamic Feature Selection	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Information-Theoretic Generalization Bounds for Sequential Decision Making	arxiv 2026-05-12	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.61	Limits of Learning Linear Dynamics from Experiments	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Random-Set Graph Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	LoL: GIANTX vs Solary - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	GTA VI released before June 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-05-02	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.61	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? [Polymarket](market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-05-13	238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	78%
0.61	R-DMesh: Video-Guided 3D Animation via Rectified Dynamic Mesh Flow	arxiv 2026-05-13	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.61	VectorSmuggle: Steganographic Exfiltration in Embedding Stores and a Cryptographic Provenance Defense	arxiv 2026-05-13	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.61	The WidthWall: A Strict Expressivity Hierarchy for Hypergraph Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Multi-Objective and Mixed-Reward Reinforcement Learning via Reward-Decorrelated Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-13	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.61	Spatiotemporal downscaling and nowcasting of urban land surface temperatures with deep neural networks	arxiv 2026-05-13	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.61	Path-independent Flow Matching for Multi-parameter Generative Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-13	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Beyond Oversquashing: Understanding Signal Propagation in GNNs Via Observables	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Shortcut Mitigation via Spurious-Positive Samples	arxiv 2026-05-13	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	Stylized Text-to-Motion Generation via Hypernetwork-Driven Low-Rank Adaptation	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.61	Discrete Diffusion for Complex and Congested Multi-Agent Path Finding with Sparse Social Attention	arxiv 2026-05-13	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback	arxiv 2026-05-13	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	Backdoor Channels Hidden in Latent Space: Cryptographic Undetectability in Modern Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Continual Fine-Tuning of Large Language Models via Program Memory	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	KAST-BAR: Knowledge-Anchored Semantically-Dynamic Topology Brain Autoregressive Modeling for Universal Neural Interpretation	arxiv 2026-05-13	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.61	FeatCal: Feature Calibration for Post-Merging Models	arxiv 2026-05-13	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	A General Bézier Tree Encoding Counterfactual Framework for Retinal-Vessel-Mediated Disease Analysis	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Reliable and Explainable Medical Image Classification	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis	AI	60%
0.61	Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 209.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will CISA add at least 25 vulnerabilities to the KEV catalog in May 2026?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-05-14	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.61	A Mutual Information Lower Bound for Multimodal Regression Active Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	AQKA: Active Quantum Kernel Acquisition Under a Shot Budget	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.61	Unbiased and Second-Order-Free Training for High-Dimensional PDEs	arxiv 2026-05-14	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	Woodelf++: A Fast and Unified Partial Dependence Plot Algorithm for Decision Tree Ensembles	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Mining Subscenario Refactoring Opportunities in Behaviour-Driven Software Test Suites: ML Classifiers and LLM-Judge Baselines	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	RxEval: A Prescription-Level Benchmark for Evaluating LLM Medication Recommendation	arxiv 2026-05-14	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.61	What if Tomorrow is the World Cup Final? Counterfactual Time Series Forecasting with Textual Conditions	arxiv 2026-05-14	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	RQ-MoE: Residual Quantization via Mixture of Experts for Efficient Input-Dependent Vector Compression	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Distributionally Robust Multi-Task Reinforcement Learning via Adaptive Task Sampling	arxiv 2026-05-14	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	Nearest-Neighbor Radii under Dependent Sampling	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	AIM-DDI: A Model-Agnostic Multimodal Integration Module for Drug-Drug Interaction Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-14	IND_020 Massive 'rerating' of Biotech industry — by 2026, generative biology achieves its 'De Novo' moment where an AI-designed drug candidate triggers multi-billion-dollar partnerships; AI expands Total Addressable Market (TAM) of gene editing by 100x, moving... Morgan Stanley	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	ForcingDAS: Unified and Robust Data Assimilation via Diffusion Forcing	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision in November?	manifold 2026-05-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision in September?	manifold 2026-05-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision in June?	manifold 2026-05-16	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.61	FDA ANDA077982: ALENDRONATE SODIUM (ALENDRONATE SODIUM) — APOTEX	fda 2026-05-07	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	FDA NDA215256: WEGOVY (SEMAGLUTIDE) — NOVO	fda 2026-05-05	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	facebookresearch/sound-spaces v0.1.0	github_release 2021-01-23	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.61	Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.61	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.61	Will Biden, Trump, Putin, or Xi die last?	manifold 2026-05-18	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.61	ON SEMICONDUCTOR CORP (ON) (CIK 0001097864)	edgar_8k 2026-05-18	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.61	facebookresearch/shapcpm v1.0.0	github_release 2026-05-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Spread: Knicks (-6.5)(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-23?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	Will Solana reach $170 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.61	Will I get catch an illness before Manifest 2026?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-05-19	236_017 Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.61	SURGE: Approximation-free Training Free Particle Filter for Diffusion Surrogate	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	SURGE: Approximation-free Training Free Particle Filter for Diffusion Surrogate	arxiv 2026-05-18	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.61	SURGE: Approximation-free Training Free Particle Filter for Diffusion Surrogate	arxiv 2026-05-18	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.61	Distilling Tabular Foundation Models for Structured Health Data	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Efficient and Noise-Tolerant PAC Learning of Multiclass Linear Classifiers	arxiv 2026-05-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Statistical Limits and Efficient Algorithms for Differentially Private Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_059 Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds. Alex Finn	AI	62%
0.61	PACE: Geometry-Aware Bridge Transport for Single-Cell Trajectory Inference	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Spherical Harmonic Optimal Transport: Application to Climate Models Comparisons	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Geometric Dictionary Learning of Dynamical Systems with Optimal Transport	arxiv 2026-05-18	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Subject-Specific Analysis of Self-Initiated Attention Shifts from EEG with Controlled Internal and External Attention Conditions	arxiv 2026-05-18	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.61	Canonical Regularisation of Wide Feature-Learning Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-18	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.61	A note on connections between the Föllmer process and the denoising diffusion probabilistic model	arxiv 2026-05-18	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	FedSDR: Federated Self-Distillation with Rectification	arxiv 2026-05-18	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	Uncertainty Reliability Under Domain Shift: An Investigation for Data-Driven Blood Pressure Estimation in Photoplethysmography	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.61	MARR: Module-Adaptive Residual Reconstruction for Low-Bit Post-Training Quantization	arxiv 2026-05-18	248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.61	A More Word-like Image Tokenization for MLLMs	arxiv 2026-05-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Universal Adversarial Triggers	arxiv 2026-05-18	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.61	Domain Transfer Becomes Identifiable via a Single Alignment	arxiv 2026-05-18	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	Long-horizon prediction of three-dimensional wall-bounded turbulence with CTA-Swin-UNet and resolvent analysis	arxiv 2026-05-18	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.61	Multi-site PPG: An In-the-Wild Physiological Dataset from Emerging Multi-site Wearables	arxiv 2026-05-18	231_021 Privacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and micro drones gathering data. Peter Diamandis	Consumer	59%
0.61	When Accuracy Is Not Enough: Uncertainty Collapse between Noisy Label Learning and Out-of-Distribution Detection	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Fine-tuning Pocket-Aware Diffusion Models via Denoising Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-17	IND_020 Massive 'rerating' of Biotech industry — by 2026, generative biology achieves its 'De Novo' moment where an AI-designed drug candidate triggers multi-billion-dollar partnerships; AI expands Total Addressable Market (TAM) of gene editing by 100x, moving... Morgan Stanley	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	On Gaussian approximation for entropy-regularized Q-learning with function approximation	arxiv 2026-05-17	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.61	PEIRA: Learning Predictive Encoders through Inter-View Regressor Alignment	arxiv 2026-05-17	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	FDA ANDA205564: LEVOCETIRIZINE DIHYDROCHLORIDE (LEVOCETIRIZINE DIHYDROCHLORIDE) — MACLEODS PHARMS LTD	fda 2026-05-14	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	Will David Brekalo win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Will Thunder downunder win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will FlyQuest win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Will Gaimin Gladiators win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.61	Will Gaimin Gladiators win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.61	Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	What will (top 1% 2026 AMC 12A) + 10 * (top 5% 2027 AIME I) be?	manifold 2026-05-28	AUT_024 H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int... Morgan Stanley	AI	42%
0.61	What will (top 1% 2026 AMC 12A) + 10 * (top 5% 2027 AIME I) be?	manifold 2026-05-28	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Will Kalshi be operational and legal in the US on January 1, 2030?(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-05-27	SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk	AI/AGI	19%
0.61	Will Bricks and Minifigs corporate declare bankruptcy in the USA by the end of 2029?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-27	SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail	Labor/Jobs	37%
0.61	Hummingbird connectome by EOY2032(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-25	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.61	2026 rate hike parlay (Fed + ECB + BOJ + BOE + PBC)(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-05-25	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.61	Starmer out before October?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-05-24	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.61	Will there be a physical protest at Discord headquarters before 2028?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-05-24	248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail	Robotics	34%
0.61	Robust and Generalizable Safety Steering for Text-to-Image Diffusion Transformers	arxiv 2026-05-28	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.61	Genetically Aligned Patient Representations Improve Hematological Diagnosis	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.61	OptSkills: Learning Generalizable Optimization Skills from Problem Archetypes via Cluster-Based Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.61	Certified Policy Optimisation for Nested Causal Bandits via PAC-Bayes Risk	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Energy-Aware NECO for Single-Pass Pixel-wise Out-of-Distribution Detection in Semantic Segmentation	arxiv 2026-05-28	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	Personalized Turn-Level User Conversation Satisfaction Benchmark	arxiv 2026-05-28	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.61	Source-Grounded Semantic Reinforcement Learning for Low-Resource Target-Language Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	DynaFLIP: Rethinking Robotics Perception via Tri-Modal-Dynamics Guided Representation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	Leave a Window Out: Modifying the Jackknife for Predictive Inference in Time Series	arxiv 2026-05-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Faithful Embeddings of Irregular and Asynchronous Data for Online Log-NCDEs	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.61	Diffusion Models Are Statistically Optimal for Learning Low-Dimensional Multi-Modal Distributions	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Feedback-to-Rubrics: Can We Learn Expert Criteria from Inline Comments?	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.61	Cert-LAS: Toward Certified Model Ownership Verification for Text-to-Image Diffusion Models via Layer-Adaptive Smoothing	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Kronecker Embeddings: Byte-Level Structured Token Representations for Parameter-Efficient Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Mixing Vector Model for Copolymer Inference via Mixed Integer Linear Programming	arxiv 2026-05-28	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.61	CommunityFact: A Dynamic, Multilingual, Multi-domain Benchmark for Misinformation Detection in the Wild	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Comparative Evaluation of Machine Translation Systems on Images with Text	arxiv 2026-05-28	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	A Study on Question-Answer Dataset for LLM Safety Evaluation with a Focus on Illegal Activities	arxiv 2026-05-28	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.61	Magic Relations and Critical Varieties of Feynman Integrals	arxiv 2026-05-28	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.61	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-03-17	229_004 By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.61	What will be the Largest margin of victory/goal differential in a single game during the 2026 edition of the World Cup?	manifold 2026-05-31	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi	Other	53%
0.61	Will Canada win on 2026-06-01?(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 31%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.61	Global Average Temperature June 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)	manifold 2026-06-01	CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei	AI	28%
0.61	Who will launch the first crewed Mars flyby mission, USA or China?	manifold 2026-06-01	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.61	FDA NDA209817: NUZYRA (OMADACYCLINE TOSYLATE) — PARATEK PHARMS	fda 2026-05-13	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	FDA ANDA215820: PHYTONADIONE (PHYTONADIONE) — DR REDDYS	fda 2026-05-15	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	FDA ANDA215820: PHYTONADIONE (PHYTONADIONE) — DR REDDYS	fda 2026-05-15	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	Will Lynn Vision win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.61	How many 10s of thousands of species be on OneZoom at the end of this year?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-06-02	COD_BIO_005 Colossal adds at least one more de-extinction species to active embryo-transfer pipeline by end 2028 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) (CIK 0001860160)	edgar_8k 2026-06-02	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	30%
0.61	Evolutionary Discovery of Bivariate Bicycle Codes with LLM-Guided Search	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	How Hard Can It Be? Hardness-Aware Multi-Objective Unlearning	arxiv 2026-06-01	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.61	The Role of Ambiguity in Error Prediction via Uncertainty Quantification	arxiv 2026-06-01	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.61	An NLP-Driven Framework for Curriculum-Labor Market Alignment: Schema-Constrained LLM Extraction, ESCO-Anchored Semantic Matching, and Multi-Dimensional Gap Quantification	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	KliniskVestBERT: BERT Model Specialised to Norwegian Clinical Texts	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	Train, Test, Re-evaluate: Schedule-Sensitive Evaluation of Generative Data for Hand Detection	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.61	Train, Test, Re-evaluate: Schedule-Sensitive Evaluation of Generative Data for Hand Detection	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	EVA-Net: Subject-Independent EEG Motor Decoding with Video-Derived Motor Priors	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Breaking the Information Silo: Semantic Personas for Cross-Domain Recommendation	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.61	Time-Aware Diffusion based on Preference Disentanglement for Generative Recommendation	arxiv 2026-06-01	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	EvoPool: Evolutionary Programmatic Annotation for Label-Efficient Specialized Supervision	arxiv 2026-06-01	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.61	MURMUR: An Efficient Inference System for Long-Form ASR	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.61	Doing well with less! On Sampling Techniques for Empirical Pairwise Loss Estimation/Minimization	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	A Doeblin-Anchored Contrastive Chart for Learning Markov Transition Kernels	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	ProbRes: Volatility Learning for Probabilistic Time-Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-01	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	ProbRes: Volatility Learning for Probabilistic Time-Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_004 Equity markets will algorithmically reward corporate entities that utilize AI to slash headcount while ruthlessly punishing those that retain human-heavy operational structures — transforming AI from productivity tool into an economic surveillance mech... Andrew Yang	Markets/Stocks	30%
0.61	Error Bounds for a Diffusion Model-Based Drift Estimator	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.61	Machine Learning for Coding Retail Product Names to Consumer-Price Categories: A Rule-plus-Bag-of-Words Pipeline with Reliability-Weighted Human-in-the-Loop Labeling	arxiv 2026-06-01	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	UniD$^3$: A Knowledge Graph-Enhanced RAG Framework for Drug-Disease Discovery and Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_006 Expert-level AI applied to biology/medicine will yield cures for cancer and Alzheimer's within 5-10 years, compressing a century of progress into a decade. Dario Amodei	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	GuidaPA: Privacy-Preserving Chatbot for Public Administration via Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-05-31	CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil	AI	30%
0.61	FreqLite: A Lightweight Frequency-Decomposed Linear Model with Adaptive Reversible Normalization for Robust Long-Term Time-Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	FDA NDA207947: UPTRAVI (SELEXIPAG) — ACTELION	fda 2026-05-23	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.2.1	github_release 2021-07-30	247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis	Robotics	32%
0.61	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.1.5	github_release 2020-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.61	Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.61	Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Club The Strongest win on 2026-06-20?(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	FDA ANDA062801: CLINDAMYCIN PHOSPHATE (CLINDAMYCIN PHOSPHATE) — ALMAJECT	fda 2026-05-28	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Changers North America Playoffs(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.61	Will Manifold change share quest criteria in June?	manifold 2026-06-03	238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	78%
0.61	Will Manifold change share quest criteria in June?	manifold 2026-06-03	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	SOLAREDGE TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (SEDG) (CIK 0001419612)	edgar_8k 2026-06-04	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.61	LLMs Can Leak Training Data But Do They Want To? A Propensity-Aware Evaluation of Memorization in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.61	TAM: Torque Adaptation Module for Robust Motion Transfer in Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-04	229_038 Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent capital unlock). Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	23%
0.61	RedditPersona: A Modular Framework for Community-Conditioned LLM Adaptation from Reddit	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	EGTR-Review: Efficient Evidence-Grounded Scientific Peer Review Generation via Multi-Agent Teacher Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.61	UNIVID: Unified Vision-Language Model for Video Moderation	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	HDST-GNN: Heterogeneous Dynamic Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks for Multi-Object Tracking in UAV Aerial Imagery	arxiv 2026-06-04	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.61	TailLoR: Protecting Principal Components in Parameter-Efficient Continual Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	AI_005 Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics olympiads while simultaneously failing rudimentary arithmetic and spatial logic; true AGI requires smoothing these jagged edges via continual learning, d... Demis Hassabis	AI	83%
0.61	Causal Atlases from Entropic Inference: Bayesian Networks beyond Optimal DAGs	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Maximising the Set-Piece Return: Optimising Football Corner Tactics with Graph Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Performance Evaluation of GraphCast for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting over Brazil	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Symb-xMIL: Symbolic Explanations for Multiple Instance Learning in Digital Pathology	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Symb-xMIL: Symbolic Explanations for Multiple Instance Learning in Digital Pathology	arxiv 2026-06-04	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.61	Trust-Aware Predictive Emissions Monitoring for Gas Turbine Fleets with Limited Labelled Data	arxiv 2026-06-04	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.61	$p$-adic Bi-Filtrations for Topological Machine Learning on Genomic Sequences	arxiv 2026-06-04	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.61	A Sliced-Wasserstein Framework on Correlation Matrices for EEG Decoding	arxiv 2026-06-04	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Adaptive Oscillatory-State Alignment for Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.61	Fast and Robust Convergence Rate for TD(0) with Linear Function Approximation, Universal Learning Steps and I.I.D. Samples	arxiv 2026-06-04	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	EML-CD: Causal Mechanism Recovery via EML Symbolic Trees in Structure Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.61	Knowledge Manifold: A Riemannian Geometric Framework for Semantic Mapping and Geodesic Analysis of Scientific Literature	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	MolE-RAG: Molecular Structure-Enhanced Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Chemistry	arxiv 2026-06-04	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	Monte Carlo Steklov Operators for Large-Scale Geometry Processing in the Wild	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Dominant-Layer ZO: A Single Layer Dominates Zeroth-Order Fine-Tuning of LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	DP-MacAdam: Differentially Private Mechanism with Adaptive Clipping and Adaptive Momentum	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_014 Most profound impacts of autonomous AI originate NOT from closed proprietary models within multi-billion-dollar corporate data centers, but from globally distributed open-source models — open-weight parity with frontier systems enables any individual o... Emad Mostaque	AI	53%
0.61	SHALA-LLM: Smartly Handling Ambiguous Labels in Aligning LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Environment-Robust Representation Learning with Empirical Bayes	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.61	STRIDE: Training Data Attribution via Sparse Recovery from Subset Perturbations	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	From Self to Other: Evaluating Demographic Perspective-Taking in LLM Hate Speech Annotation	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	Multilingual Detection of Alzheimer's Disease from Speech: A Cross-Linguistic Transfer Learning Approach	arxiv 2026-06-04	AI_034 The AI-native education model will see global adoption within approximately 5 years — driven by sub-$1,000 offline tablets and AI tutors capable of lifting historically lagging demographics (e.g. New Mexico, Sub-Saharan Africa) into top-tier performanc... Joe Liemandt	Education	22%
0.61	Self-supervised User Profile Generation for Personalization	arxiv 2026-06-03	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.61	A Model of Multi-turn Human Persuadability Using Probabilistic Belief Tracing	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Caliper: Probing Lexical Anchors versus Causal Structure in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	SMADE-IE: Sparse Multi-Agent Framework with Evidence-Driven Debate for Zero-Shot Information Extraction	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Synthetic Data Generation and Vision-based Wrinkle and Keypoint Detection for Bimanual Cloth Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-04	248_043 Full sewing/stitching automation likely within six months. Dave Blundin	Robotics	43%
0.61	HapTile: A Haptic-Informed Vision-Tactile-Language-Action Dataset for Contact-Rich Imitation Learning	arxiv 2026-06-03	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	Lecture notes: Introduction to the Off-shell Double Copy Program	arxiv 2026-06-04	232_050 Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.61	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?(market prob: 58%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 7?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.61	Will Claude Mythos be released by the end of June 2026?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-06-06	246_050 Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	Manifold Markets says I have 249 Traders right now. By June 12th PDT (California Time) I will have 650.(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-06-06	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.61	Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) (CIK 0001860160)	edgar_8k 2026-06-05	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	30%
0.61	FDA ANDA070311: DIAZEPAM (DIAZEPAM) — HIKMA	fda 2026-06-01	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07?(market prob: 84%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks before 2027?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-06-07	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	facebookresearch/detectron2 v0.3	github_release 2020-11-06	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.61	Impact of Synthetic Lesional MR Images in Automated Focal Cortical Dysplasia Detection in Low-Data Scenarios	arxiv 2026-06-05	248_032 First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be non-destructive. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	42%
0.61	Towards Unified Song Generation and Singing Voice Conversion with Accompaniment Co-Generation	arxiv 2026-06-05	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.61	Entropy as a Structural Prior: How a Log-Barrier on DiT Belief Space Drives Musical Diversity and Development	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	A machine-learning-assisted progressive digit-randomness screening framework for detecting non-random patterns in raw numerical research data	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	A machine-learning-assisted progressive digit-randomness screening framework for detecting non-random patterns in raw numerical research data	arxiv 2026-06-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	An Adaptive Data cleaning Framework for Noisy Label Detection	arxiv 2026-06-05	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.61	Bias in Filter Feature Selection Evaluation: A Meta-Analysis of Datasets, Baselines, and Experimental Design Choices	arxiv 2026-06-05	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	Uniform Stability and Generalization Error of GD and SGD on Fixed-Point Parameters	arxiv 2026-06-05	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	HKVM-RAG: Key-Value-Separated Hypergraph Evidence Organization for Multi-Hop RAG	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Principles of Concept Representation in Sentence Encoders	arxiv 2026-06-05	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08?(market prob: 79%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?(market prob: 37%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.61	Will I receive both my t shirt and my cap before the thirty first of August 2026 CEST 11:59 PM(market prob: 80%)	manifold 2026-06-08	247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis	Robotics	32%
0.61	FDA BLA761460: DECNUPAZ (PIVEKIMAB SUNIRINE-PVZY) — ABBVIE INC	fda 2026-05-27	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09?(market prob: 84%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?(market prob: 81%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will it rain at manifest 2026?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-06-09	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.61	What will be winning score in ARC's white-box estimation challenge (warm-up round)?	manifold 2026-06-09	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	What will be winning score in ARC's white-box estimation challenge (warm-up round)?	manifold 2026-06-09	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	Physics-Guided Sequence-Based Generative Framework for Acoustic Metamaterial Inverse Design	arxiv 2026-06-08	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.61	EgoTactile: Learning Grasp Pressure for Everyday Objects from Egocentric Video	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	EgoTactile: Learning Grasp Pressure for Everyday Objects from Egocentric Video	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Cheap Reward Hacking Detection	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_001 Single operators utilizing low-cost hardware (e.g., $600 Mac Minis) will be able to replicate the output of entire enterprise teams, drastically reducing the friction of multi-million-dollar software development — leading to total dissolution of middle... Alex Finn	Labor/Jobs	48%
0.61	Intelligent Character Recognition of Handwritten Forms with Deep Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-07	229_040 When Figure robots work on unloading the dishwasher, they're within a 'millimeter' of every other task because it's all just data. Dave Blundin	Robotics	43%
0.61	TeamHerald@CHIPSAL 2026: Hate Speech Detection and Sentiment Analysis of Nepali Memes using Transformer-based Architectures and Ensemble Learning	arxiv 2026-06-07	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.61	Algorithm for Contextual Queueing Bandits with Rate-Optimal Queue Length Regret	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	A Unifying Framework for Concept-Based Representational Similarity	arxiv 2026-06-08	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	On Choosing the $μ$ Parameter in Gaussian Differential Privacy	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Backward Coherence and Hidden-State Stability in Recurrent Neural Networks: A Quasi-Reverse-Martingale Theory	arxiv 2026-06-08	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.61	FiberTune: Preserving Action-Fiber Visual Residuals in Vision-Language-Action Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Improving the sharpness in neural network-based parametric post-processing of ensemble forecasts	arxiv 2026-06-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	OrderDP: A Theoretically Guaranteed Lossless Dynamic Data Pruning Framework	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.61	OpenBibleTTS: Large-Scale Speech Resources and TTS Models for Low-Resource Languages	arxiv 2026-06-08	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.61	LexRubric: A Rubric-Guided Diagnostic Benchmark for Open-Ended Legal Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Are Reasoning Vision-Language Models Robust to Semantic Visual Distractions?	arxiv 2026-06-08	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.61	TrustMargin: Training-Free Arbitration between Parametric Memory and Retrieved Evidence in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-07	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.61	AetheRock: An Arm-Worn Robot Teaching System for Force-Guided Vision-Tactile Learning	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	TORL-VLA: Tactile Guided Online Reinforcement Learning for Contact-Rich Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Latent Diffusion Policy: Shaping Latent Spaces for Diffusion-Based Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Post-Newtonian analysis of the quantum signatures of gravity	arxiv 2026-06-08	240_032 PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.61	Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	236_004 Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	Will the USA reach the quarter-finals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-06-09	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	35%
0.61	FADA: Accessible fetal ultrasound interpretation and annotation with a selectively distilled unified vision-language model	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	NOVA: Symbolic Regression Discovery of Interpretable Car-Following and Lane-Change Models with Driver Heterogeneity	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Cross-Modal Knowledge Distillation without Paired Data: Theoretical Foundation and Algorithm	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Detecting Speculative Language in Biomedical Texts using Recurrent Neural Tensor Networks	arxiv 2026-06-09	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.61	FOGO: Forgetting-aware Orthogonalization Optimizer	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	Routing-Aware Expert Calibration for Machine Unlearning in Mixture-of-Experts Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.61	Supervised Fine-tuning with Synthetic Rationale Data Hurts Real-World Disease Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-09	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Towards Robust Arabic Speech Emotion Recognition with Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	An Improved Generative Adversarial Network for Micro-Resistivity Imaging Logging Restoration	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Fisher-Guided Progressive Parameter Selection for Adaptive Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	Dropout-GRPO: Variational Stochasticity for Continuous Latent Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Making Time Editable in Video Diffusion Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	MetaPlate: Counterfactual-Guided RAG-LLM Tool for Personalized Food Recommendation and Hyperglycemia Prevention	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_027 Integration of AI with advanced bio-sensing, quantum computing, and genomics enables humanity to achieve 'Longevity Escape Velocity' — tipping point where medical technology extends human lifespan faster than time passes; continuous biological surveill... Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	21%
0.61	Population-Aware Physics-Informed Neural Particle Flow for Bayesian Update	arxiv 2026-06-09	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.61	Non-linear mechanical field reconstruction coupling recurrent neural networks with physics-informed graph neural networks	arxiv 2026-06-09	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.61	CITRAS-FM: Tiny Time Series Foundation Model for Covariate-Informed Zero-Shot Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-09	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.61	An adaptive framework for the axisymmetric pulsar magnetosphere using physics-informed Kolmogorov-Arnold networks	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	PhysMetrics.Weather: An Evaluation Framework for Physical Consistency in ML Weather Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Continual LLM Upcycling: A Predictor-Gated Bank-Wise Sparsity Training Recipe for Dense-to-Sparse LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.61	Continual LLM Upcycling: A Predictor-Gated Bank-Wise Sparsity Training Recipe for Dense-to-Sparse LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.61	Are We Evaluating Knowledge or Phrasing? Mitigating MCQA Sensitivity with ParaEval	arxiv 2026-06-09	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.61	LieIPM: Lie Group Interior Point Method for Direct Trajectory Optimization of Rigid Bodies	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	A Friendly Phantom: Late-time AdS-to-dS transition and cosmological tensions	arxiv 2026-06-09	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.61	Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.61	Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.61	XRP BELOW $1 THIS WEEK?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-06-10	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.61	Bridging the Morphology Gap: Adapting VLA Models to Dexterous Manipulation via Intent-Conditioned Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-10	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	What Limits Does Quantization Place on Dense Top-$k$ Retrieval? A Theoretical Study	arxiv 2026-06-10	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.61	Context-Driven Incremental Compression for Multi-Turn Dialogue Generation	arxiv 2026-06-10	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Finding Sparse Subnetworks in One Training Cycle via Progressive Magnitude-Based Pruning	arxiv 2026-06-10	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Finding Sparse Subnetworks in One Training Cycle via Progressive Magnitude-Based Pruning	arxiv 2026-06-10	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	MLT-Dedup: Efficient Large-Scale Online Video Deduplication via Multi-Level Representations and Spatial-Temporal Matching	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	How Low Can You Go? Active Learning for Sparse Model Discovery in the Ultra-Low-Data Limit	arxiv 2026-06-10	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.61	How Low Can You Go? Active Learning for Sparse Model Discovery in the Ultra-Low-Data Limit	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Neuro-Relational Programs: Unifying Queries and Neural Computation over Structured Data	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Deterministic Policy Gradient for Learning Equilibrium in Time-Inconsistent Control Problems	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Tree-Structured Orthonormal Decomposition of the Aitchison Simplex	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Enhancing Spectral Embedding through Robust and Flexible Knowledge Transfer in Electronic Health Records	arxiv 2026-06-10	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	GLACIER: A Multimodal Student-Teacher Foundation Model for Molecular Property Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Doc-to-Atom: Learning to Compile and Compose Memory Atoms	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	The Long Tail, Not the Front Page: Cold-Start Prediction of Crowd Highlight Salience	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Massive Open-Vocabulary Keyword Spotting	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Improving Human Diving Endurance with a Field-Deployable, Untethered Exoskeleton	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Improving Human Diving Endurance with a Field-Deployable, Untethered Exoskeleton	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Nonadditivity in Quantum Field Theory: Replica Energies, Scaling Filters, and the Renormalization Group	arxiv 2026-06-10	238_057 Laws of economics and thermodynamics will still apply despite AI abundance Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	42%
0.61	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_data_odac-0.1.0	github_release 2026-04-21	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.61	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.17.0	github_release 2026-03-08	IND_012 NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a decade — Evo 2 achieves 90% accuracy in BRCA1 predictions; AI models will seamlessly transition generated biological designs into practical, synthesized clinical... Jensen Huang	Biotech/Longevity	68%
0.61	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.17.0	github_release 2026-03-08	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.61	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.16.0	github_release 2026-03-05	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.61	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.10.0	github_release 2025-10-23	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.61	Will Team WE win the LPL 2026 season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-20	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?(market prob: 34%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	How many people will attend Manifest 2026?	manifold 2026-06-12	COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	33%
0.61	Towards Personalized Federated Learning for Dysarthric Speech Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-11	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	EPIG: Emotion-Based Prompting for Personalised Image Generation	arxiv 2026-06-11	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.61	Decoding Insect Song: A Multitask Semisupervised Orthoptera Bioacoustic Classifier	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.61	Iterative Visual Thinking: Teaching Vision-Language Models Spatial Self-Correction through Visual Feedback	arxiv 2026-06-11	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.61	MP3: Multi-Period Pattern Pre-training forSpatio-Temporal Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-11	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.61	MP3: Multi-Period Pattern Pre-training forSpatio-Temporal Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	CausalMoE: A Billion-Scale Multimodal Foundation Model for Granger Causal Discovery with Pattern-Routed Heterogeneous Experts	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.61	TrajGenAgent: A Hierarchical LLM Agent for Human Mobility Trajectory Generation	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Analyzing and Improving Fine-grained Preference Optimization in Medical LVLMs	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Graphical Causal Reasoning for Root Cause Analysis in Cloud Networks	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_059 Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds. Alex Finn	AI	62%
0.61	Foundations of Practical Quantum Advantage in Quantum-Informed Machine Learning for Predicting Chaos	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Limits of spectral learning under noise	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Prediction-Powered Causal Inference by Automatic Debiased Machine Learning and Semi-Supervised Riesz Regression	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Towards Provably Fair Machine Learning: Bayesian Approaches For Consistent and Transparent Predictions	arxiv 2026-06-10	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	From Passive Generation to Investigation: A Proactive Scientific Peer Review Agent	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	How Fine-Grained Should a RAG Benchmark Be? A Hierarchical Framework for Synthetic Question Generation	arxiv 2026-06-11	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.61	Helping Figures Tell their Story! Paper-Grounded Video Generation Explaining Complex Scientific Figures	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	The Long Tail, Not the Front Page: Cold-Start Prediction of Crowd Highlight Salience	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Will United States win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?(market prob: 34%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will Noah Okafor be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Fable be reenabled for Europeans before July 1?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-13	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	How many people will LEXER have sex with in June of 2026?	manifold 2026-06-14	SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock	Robotics	42%
0.61	Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2025-11-11	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.61	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	IND_021 February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... Jack Dorsey	Labor/Jobs	74%
0.61	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?(market prob: 76%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.7.3	github_release 2023-04-05	237_018 We are seeing a Cambrian explosion of OpenClaw variants (PicoClaw, IronClaw, NanoClaw, Nanobot, etc.) with many more to come. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.61	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.6.1	github_release 2021-12-16	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.61	Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	How many traders will I have by the end of June?	manifold 2026-06-12	234_014 We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	59%
0.61	RAID: Semantic Graph Diffusion for True Cold-Start and Cross-Lingual Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Tying the Loop -- Tied Expert Layers in Mixture-of-Experts Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	A Perception vs. Distortion Perspective on Score-Based Generative Channel Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Tyler: Typed Latent Reasoning for Language Models -- When to Think, What to Compute, and How Much to Allocate	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.61	XAI-Grounded Explanation Generation for Speech Deepfake Detection with Training-Free Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	MASCOT-Android: A Curated Dataset and Automated Collection Pipeline for Android Malware Source Code Specimens	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.61	UrbanWell: Benchmarking Multimodal Large Language Models for Spatio-Temporal Urban Wellbeing Analytics	arxiv 2026-06-14	SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	56%
0.61	Deep Residual Injection for Full-Spectrum Forensic Signal Perception in Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-14	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	From Tokens to Policy: Causal and Interpretable Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Identification	arxiv 2026-06-15	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	Factorized Neural Operators Decompose Dynamic and Persistent Responses	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	GD$^2$PO: Mitigating Multi-Reward Conflicts via Group-Dynamic reward-Decoupled Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	GD$^2$PO: Mitigating Multi-Reward Conflicts via Group-Dynamic reward-Decoupled Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	GD$^2$PO: Mitigating Multi-Reward Conflicts via Group-Dynamic reward-Decoupled Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Semi-Supervised Speech Confidence Detection using Pseudo-Labelling and Whisper Embeddings	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	FEnc$^2$: Unifying Data Packing for Efficient Private Inference via Convolution and Architecture-Aware Fragment Encoding	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	pFedUL: Layer-Aware Federated Unlearning for Personalized Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-06-15	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Graphical conditional generative modeling for digital twin modeling	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.61	Stop the Sampler! Classifier-Based Adaptive Stopping for Sampling Kernels	arxiv 2026-06-15	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Beyond the Blood Draw: Explainable Machine Learning for Non-Invasive Dysglycemia Risk Screening	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.61	Inference-Time Decision Calibration for Temporal Classification	arxiv 2026-06-14	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Learning the generating functional for variance reduction in lattice QCD	arxiv 2026-06-14	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.61	SemGeoNav:A Safety-Guided Visual Navigation Approach with Semantic Reasoning and Geometric Planning	arxiv 2026-06-15	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.61	PolyMerge: Compressing 3D Gaussian Splats with Polytope Coverings for Provably Safe Resource-Constrained Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-15	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.61	Distributed Safe Consensus Under Asymmetric Input and Time-Varying Output Constraints	arxiv 2026-06-15	AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.61	Transferring Contact, Not Just Motion: Compliant Grasping Across Dexterous Hands	arxiv 2026-06-14	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will Pedri be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.61	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Who Will Win OWCS 2026 - NA Stage 2	manifold 2026-06-17	S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path	agi_general_capability	35%
0.61	Which of these will I achieve?	manifold 2026-06-16	234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.61	Learning Fair Pareto-Optimal Policies in Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-16	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.61	Volterra Generative Models	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Multiple cyclicity and Wavelet Decomposition with Channel Correlation for Long-term Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.61	DriveJudge: Rethinking Autonomous Driving Evaluation with Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	SpeechDx: A Multi-Task Benchmark for Clinical Speech AI	arxiv 2026-06-15	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.61	A Convex Quasilinearization Method for Solving Nonlinear PDEs with Physics-Informed Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Evaluating Open-Source LLMs for Multi-Label ATT&CK Technique Classification on CTI Reports	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	When Dynamics Models Read the Wrong Time Steps: Label-Free Event Credit Re-Anchoring for Robust Global Readouts	arxiv 2026-06-16	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.61	Toward Controllable Catalyst Inverse Design via Large-Scale Autoregressive Pretraining	arxiv 2026-06-16	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.61	Towards Fast GNN Surrogates for CO2 Migration in Complex Geological Formations	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Fine-tuning LLMs for Passive Depression Severity Estimation from AI Mental Health Dialogue	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis	AI	60%
0.61	FLAP: FOV-Constrained Active Perception Planning for Prior-Map-Free 3D Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Fourier-Preconditioned Path Deformations for Multi-Field Vacuum Tunnelling	arxiv 2026-06-16	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.61	Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?(market prob: 88%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Free Lottery (inflationary expansion)(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-06-18	236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	35%
0.61	TRAP: Benchmark for Task-completion and Resistance to Active Privacy-extraction	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	SHIFT: Semantic Harmonization via Index-side Feature Transformation for Multilingual Information Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Deep-Learning-Based Pixelated Microwave Filter Design and Characterization using Electro-Optical Electric-Field Measurements	arxiv 2026-06-16	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	Learning to Annotate Delayed and False AEB Events: A Practical System for Extreme Class Imbalance and Asymmetric Label Noise	arxiv 2026-06-17	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	INDEQS: Informed Neural controlled Differential EQuationS	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Smoothness-Based Derandomization of PAC-Bayes Bounds	arxiv 2026-06-17	AI_005 Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics olympiads while simultaneously failing rudimentary arithmetic and spatial logic; true AGI requires smoothing these jagged edges via continual learning, d... Demis Hassabis	AI	83%
0.61	FOSC-X: An Extended Framework for Optimal Local Cuts and Non-Horizontal Cluster Selection from Clustering Hierarchies	arxiv 2026-06-17	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.61	Clinically Aligned Geometry Constraints for Robust IVUS Vessel Boundary Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-17	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Graph-ESBMC-PLC: Formal Verification of Graphical PLCopen XML Ladder Diagram Programs Using SMT-Based Model Checking	arxiv 2026-06-17	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.61	Viking Hill Dataset: A Lidar-Radar-Camera Dataset for Detection and Segmentation in Forest Scenes	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_016 Rural landscapes in the Global South move beyond conventional food production toward highly complex, multifunctional systems — agentic AI platforms synthesize localized ecological data to enable precision organic farming, transparent environmental prot... Peter Dannenberg	Other	42%
0.61	Motion-Focused Latent Action Enables Cross-Embodiment VLA Training from Human EgoVideos	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	An effective field theory approach to the sign problem in BFSS	arxiv 2026-06-16	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.61	Ghosts versus Unstable Particles in Quantum Field Theory	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.61	Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?(market prob: 27%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.61	Will a country do a bombing live stream by EOY 2030?(market prob: 49%)	manifold 2026-06-19	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.61	Will a mod comment on this market?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-06-18	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.61	Will Polymarket refund a million dollars on any market before 2028?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-06-18	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	SPOT-E: Test-Time Entropy Shaping with Visual Spotlights for Frozen VLMs	arxiv 2026-06-18	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.61	Confidence Calibration for Multimodal LLMs: An Empirical Study through Medical VQA	arxiv 2026-06-18	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.61	Spatial-Aware Reduction Framework: Towards Efficient and Faithful Visual State Space Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.61	LOKI: Memory-Free Null-Space Constrained Lifelong Knowledge Editing	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	Configurable Clinical Information Extraction with Agentic RAG: What Works, What Breaks, and Why	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Scalable Training of Spatially Grounded 2D Vision-Language Models for Radiology	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Quantile of Means: A Bonus-Free Ensemble Method for Minimax Optimal Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	VIMPO: Value-Implicit Policy Optimization for LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Online Dynamic Batching with Formal Guarantees for LLM Training	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.61	Enhancing Graph Neural Networks Using Proximity Graphs for Dust Source Emission Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-18	242_011 New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 years Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.61	Low-Burden Data Augmentation for Dysarthric ASR via Zero-Shot Voice Cloning	arxiv 2026-06-18	IND_001 Single operators utilizing low-cost hardware (e.g., $600 Mac Minis) will be able to replicate the output of entire enterprise teams, drastically reducing the friction of multi-million-dollar software development — leading to total dissolution of middle... Alex Finn	Labor/Jobs	48%
0.61	An Information Theoretic Framework for Graph Novelty Generation via Latent Mixture Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.61	A Differentiable Composite Approximation Framework for Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Maneuvering Modeling from Sea-Trial Data	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Learning to Annotate Delayed and False AEB Events: A Practical System for Extreme Class Imbalance and Asymmetric Label Noise	arxiv 2026-06-17	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	NEST: Narrative Event Structures in Time for Long Video Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	CacheWeaver: Cache-Aware Evidence Ordering for Efficient Grounded RAG Inference	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	SAGE-OPD: Selective Agent-Guided Intervention for Multi-Turn On-Policy Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-17	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.61	SAGE-OPD: Selective Agent-Guided Intervention for Multi-Turn On-Policy Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Mobile Target Search with Imperfect Perception: A Partially Observable Stochastic Game Theoretical Approach	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_005 Fundamental convergence between autonomous AI, enterprise software, and global defense infrastructure — future geopolitical supremacy dictated entirely by algorithmic dominance rather than traditional kinetic military assets; autonomous drones, AI-driv... Ben Horowitz	Defense	73%
0.61	VFILC: Accurate Frequency Extrapolations in Imitation Learning via Sampling Frequency ILC	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.61	Quantization of Brane-Skyrmions via Physics-Informed Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Evolving Dark Energy Is Vacuum Energy After All	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Moduli Stabilisation for ADD and the Dark Dimension Scenario	arxiv 2026-06-17	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.61	Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-17	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-12-10	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.61	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Spread: Pistons (-9.5)(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-03-26	231_002 Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.61	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?(market prob: 81%)	polymarket 2025-07-11	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.61	Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.61	Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	246_011 Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. Dave Blundin	AI	42%
0.61	Kash Patel out by April 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-03	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Goog 380 by end of week?(market prob: 55%)	manifold 2026-04-29	INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn	Consumer	77%
0.61	Will US average gas price reach $4.300 in May 2026?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-04-27	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.61	Sub-2 World Marathon Majors 2026-2029	manifold 2026-04-27	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.61	Sub-2 World Marathon Majors 2026-2029	manifold 2026-04-27	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.61	When will Indonesia announce the IMO 2026 Team?	manifold 2026-04-27	CMQ_001 By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. Sam Altman	AI	45%
0.61	Will ICE be renamed as NICE in 2026?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-04-27	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will "Protecting Cognitive Integrity: Our internal ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-04-26	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.61	Will Christian Affiliation in the United States Increase Over Five Years?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-04-25	248_025 Religion will consolidate globally around fewer major religions while proliferating micro cults/sects. Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.61	Will Liam mention female ‘tortas’ between April 24, 2026 at 12:00 PM and April 26, 2026 at 12:00 PM?(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-04-25	238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick	Robotics	42%
0.61	Where will I live in October 2026?	manifold 2026-04-24	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.61	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-04-23	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%