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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.62	Heterogeneous Effects of Green Finance on Urban Decarbonization: Evidence from 285 Cities in China	arxiv 2026-06-05	234_038 Real estate is not an asset class impervious to the singularity Alex Wissner-Gross	Real Estate	35%
0.62	Heterogeneous Effects of Green Finance on Urban Decarbonization: Evidence from 285 Cities in China	arxiv 2026-06-05	234_040 Elon predicts FSD and Starlink may reverse urbanization in America Elon Musk	Real Estate	32%
0.62	Heterogeneous Effects of Green Finance on Urban Decarbonization: Evidence from 285 Cities in China	arxiv 2026-06-05	FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam	Energy	45%
0.62	Geometry of Semantic Space: Comparative Study of Discrete and Continuous Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.62	Modeling semantic association in self-paced reading with language model embeddings	arxiv 2026-06-05	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.62	Translate-R1: Cost-Aware Translation Tool Use via Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.62	Predictive Style Matching: Natural and Robust Humanoid Locomotion	arxiv 2026-06-05	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.62	Extending Responsibility-Sensitive Safety for the Assessment of Offloaded Autonomous Driving Services	arxiv 2026-06-05	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.62	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 8?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.62	Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 93%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	New gemini version out in june(market prob: 75%)	manifold 2026-06-08	241_046 Gemini 3 is probably the broadest of the non-Chinese AI systems Eric Schmidt	AI	47%
0.62	Will I (Mitpro) reach Expert in Codeforces again before July 1st(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-06-08	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.62	Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-06-07	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.62	Will United States win on 2026-06-12?(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.62	Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs FULL SENSE (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.62	Will the May Jobs report be revised upwards in June?(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-06-09	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.62	AHA-WAM:Asynchronous Horizon-Adaptive World-Action Modeling with Observation-Guided Context Routing	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	TABVERSE: Benchmarking Cross-Format Table Understanding in LLMs and VLMs	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	FuseFSS: Efficient Secure LLM Inference with Function Secret Sharing	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.62	LLM-Orchestrated Conformance Checking in Stroke Care Without Computer-Interpretable Guidelines	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.62	Correct Looks Better: Pairwise Comparisons Reveal Accuracy Rankings	arxiv 2026-06-08	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	Beyond Humans: Multispecies Animal Face Recognition Using Transfer Learning	arxiv 2026-06-08	241_061 China robots will compete as replacement for dogs / low-cost consumer use (now; useful later) Eric Schmidt	Robotics	44%
0.62	TRL-Bench: Standardizing Cross-Paradigm Representation-Level Evaluation of Tabular Encoders	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.62	End-to-End Training for Discrete Token LLM based TTS System	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.62	DynaOD: Dynamic Origin-Destination Flow Generation with Discrete-to-Continuous Temporal Semantic Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-08	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.62	Families of Control-Cost-Parametrized Inverse-Optimal Universal Stabilizers	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Decoy-Calibrated Failure Audits for Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.62	Towards Long-Horizon Vessel Trajectory and Destination Forecasting with Reasoning Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Reinforcement Learning for Flow-Matching Policies with Density Transport	arxiv 2026-06-07	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.62	LexRubric: A Rubric-Guided Diagnostic Benchmark for Open-Ended Legal Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_025 The legal profession must transition from viewing AI as a 'prompter' to an active 'partner' — when an autonomous AI consultant hallucinates legal precedent or medical diagnosis, traditional corporate malpractice frameworks fail; courts must rapidly est... Ralph Losey	Other	77%
0.62	NüshuVoice: Reviving the Voice of Endangered Nüshu with Pitch-Aware Text-to-Speech	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.62	A Joint Finite-Sample Certificate for Adaptive Selective Conformal Risk Control	arxiv 2026-06-07	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Friend or Foe? Language as an ideological switch in open-weight LLMs under Russian disinformation stress	arxiv 2026-06-07	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.62	Taming Perception Jitter: Uncertainty-Aware LiDAR Object Detection for Reliable Motion Classification	arxiv 2026-06-08	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.62	TORL-VLA: Tactile Guided Online Reinforcement Learning for Contact-Rich Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Autonomous FPV Flight with Translational Optical Flow and Uncertainty Mask	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-01-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.62	Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.62	How many critical severity cyber vulnerabilities will be found in December 2026?	manifold 2026-06-10	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.62	How many critical severity cyber vulnerabilities will be found in December 2026?	manifold 2026-06-10	CMQ_001 By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. Sam Altman	AI	45%
0.62	A History-Aware Visually Grounded Critic for Computer Use Agents	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.62	Democratising Camera Trap AI: An Open-Source Model for Detecting UK Mammals	arxiv 2026-06-09	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.62	A Constrained Natural-Language Interface for Variational Multi-Physics Finite Element Simulations in FEniCS	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Boosting ECG Classification Performance by Pre-training with Synthesized Data	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Fast and Highly Expressive Policy Learning for Offline Reinforcement Learning via Bootstrapped Flow Q-Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Advancing the State-of-the-Art in Empirical Privacy Auditing	arxiv 2026-06-09	231_027 Algorithmic arbitration with cryptographic verification will create programmable governments. Salim Ismail	Other	44%
0.62	UPLOTS: A Unified Pretrained Language Model for Constrained Time-series Generation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Speech Meets ELF: Audio Conditional Continuous-Target Diffusion for Speech Recognition and Translation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.62	KG-SoftMAP: Soft Knowledge-Graph Priors for Bayesian Network Structure Learning from Sparse Discrete Data	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Sim2Schedule: A Simulator-Guided LLM Framework for Autonomous Open-Pit Mine Scheduling	arxiv 2026-06-09	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.62	Pareto-Guided Teacher Alignment for Fair Personalized Text Generation	arxiv 2026-06-08	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Itô maps for any-step SDEs	arxiv 2026-06-09	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.62	Multimodal Brain Tumour Classification Using Feature Fusion	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	When Do Autoregressive Sequence Models Forecast Physical Wavefields? A Controlled Study on Synthetic Seismograms	arxiv 2026-06-09	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.62	When Do Autoregressive Sequence Models Forecast Physical Wavefields? A Controlled Study on Synthetic Seismograms	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Can we trust our models? Epistemic calibration in second-order classification	arxiv 2026-06-09	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Beyond Explaining Predictions: Logic-Based Explanations for Confidence in Machine Learning Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.62	The Order Matters: Sequential Fine-Tuning of LLaMA for Coherent Automated Essay Scoring	arxiv 2026-06-09	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.62	Attention Amnesia in Hybrid LLMs: When CoT Fine-Tuning Breaks Long-Range Recall, and How to Fix It	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	A Distributed Multi-UGV Exploration Framework With Loop-Aware Planning and Descriptor-Aided Localization in Resource-Limited Environments	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Uncertainty-Aware Motion Planning for Autonomous Driving in Mixed Traffic Environment	arxiv 2026-06-08	243_011 Autonomous driver will be much safer than a human being Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.62	Magic and entanglement in 1+1-dimensional SU(2) lattice gauge theory	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 12?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 11?(market prob: 36%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.62	Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.62	Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.62	By when will Amazon Prime Air (drone delivery) be available in every state?	manifold 2026-06-11	243_040 Suburban markets will be a new growth opportunity via drone delivery Dara Khosrowshahi	Consumer	48%
0.62	Will we discover a fourth transmissible mammal cancer by the end of 2030?(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-06-11	COD_BIO_005 Colossal adds at least one more de-extinction species to active embryo-transfer pipeline by end 2028 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) (CIK 0001413447)	edgar_8k 2026-06-11	242_011 New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 years Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.62	FACTR 2: Learning External Force Sensing for Commodity Robot Arms Improves Policy Learning	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	DiffCold: A Diffusion-based Generative Model for Cold-Start Item Recommendation	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Multi-Rate Mixture of Experts for Accelerating Liquid Neural Network Training	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Unstable Features, Reproducible Subspaces: Understanding Seed Dependence in Sparse Autoencoders	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Metadata-Aware Multi-Prompt Reasoning for Zero-Shot Accident Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Time-Series Foundation Model Embeddings for Remaining Useful Life Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	Toward Trustworthy AI: Multi-Target Adversarial Attacks and Robust Defenses for Continuous Data Summarization	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.62	Information-Theoretic Decomposition for Multimodal Interaction Learning	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Measuring Semantic Progress in Multi-turn Dialogue via Information Gain	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Beyond Dark Knowledge: Mixup-Based Distillation for Reliable Predictions	arxiv 2026-06-10	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Beyond Dark Knowledge: Mixup-Based Distillation for Reliable Predictions	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.62	Spectrally Regularized Latent Flow Matching for Turbulence Generation	arxiv 2026-06-10	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Beyond the Golden Teacher: Enhancing Graph Learning through LLM-GNN Co-teaching	arxiv 2026-06-10	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.62	Range-Aware Bayesian Optimization for Discovering Diverse Designs within Target Property Windows	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_035 HBM4 16-layer stack design (required for Vera Rubin) places unprecedented yield and capacity strain on global memory fabrication facilities. Jensen Huang / Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.62	Multimodal Brain Tumour Classification Using Feature Fusion	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Beyond Third-Person Audits: Situated Interaction Auditing for User-Centered LLM Bias Research	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.62	Gumbel-BEARD: Automatic Layer Selection for Self-Supervised Adaptation of Whisper in Low-Resource Domains	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.62	VLGA: Vision-Language-Geometry-Action Models for Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-10	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.62	UGV-Conditioned Multi-UAV Informative Planning on a Shared Exposure Belief	arxiv 2026-06-10	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.62	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.19.0	github_release 2026-03-26	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.62	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_lammps-0.4.0	github_release 2026-02-17	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.62	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_lammps-0.2.0	github_release 2025-10-07	CMQ_029 DRAM manufacturers must expand production aggressively — 'NVIDIA will buy all you can make'. Jensen Huang	Semis/Memory	74%
0.62	What will happen before election day for the 2026 midterms? [Add Answers] (Please ensure you read the rules)	manifold 2026-06-12	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.62	Multiagent Protocols with Aggregated Confidence Signals	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.62	Contrast-Informed Augmentation and Domain-Adversarial Training for Adult-to-Neonatal MR Reconstruction Generalization	arxiv 2026-06-11	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Contrast-Informed Augmentation and Domain-Adversarial Training for Adult-to-Neonatal MR Reconstruction Generalization	arxiv 2026-06-11	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Adaptive Turn-Taking for Real-time Multi-Party Voice Agents	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	SupraBench: A Benchmark for Supramolecular Chemistry	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.62	IterCAD: An Iterative Multimodal Agent for Visually-Grounded CAD Generation and Editing	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Mental-R1: Aligning LLM Reasoning for Mental Health Assessment	arxiv 2026-06-11	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	NTS-CoT: Mitigating Hallucinations in LLM-based News Timeline Summarization with Chain-of-Thought Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	AAbAAC: An Annotated Corpus for Autoimmunity Information Extraction	arxiv 2026-06-11	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.62	A Machine Learning Framework for Real-Time Personalized Ergonomic Pose Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Efficient, Robust, and Anti-Collusion Fingerprinting of Image Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	LoRA-Muon: Spectral Steepest Descent on the Low-Rank Manifold	arxiv 2026-06-11	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.62	Bounding Boxes as Goals: Language-Conditioned Grasping via Neuro-Symbolic Planning	arxiv 2026-06-11	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.62	Rethinking Psychometric Evaluation of LLMs: When and Why Self-Reports Predict Behavior	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	TrajGenAgent: A Hierarchical LLM Agent for Human Mobility Trajectory Generation	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Bag of Dims: Training-Free Mechanistic Interpretability via Dimension-Level Sign Patterns	arxiv 2026-06-10	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Dense Supervision, Sparse Updates: On the Sparsity and Geometry of On-Policy Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-11	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	S-GBT: Smooth Growth Bound Tensor for Certified Robustness Against Word Substitution Attacks in NLP	arxiv 2026-06-11	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.62	When Does Routing Become Interpretable? Causal Probes on Block Attention Residuals	arxiv 2026-06-11	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.62	$α$-fair heterogeneous agent reinforcement learning	arxiv 2026-06-11	238_037 Network effects, economics, and game theory will persist in AI agent economy (no singleton takeover) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	Forecasting Is Not Attribution: Localizing Decoder Bypass in Graph-Based Neural Marketing Mix Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.62	Operads for compositional reasoning in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-11	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.62	EvoBrowseComp: Benchmarking Search Agents on Evolving Knowledge	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	EvoBrowseComp: Benchmarking Search Agents on Evolving Knowledge	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.62	MÖVE: A Holistic LLM Benchmark for the German Public Sector	arxiv 2026-06-11	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.62	Trait, Not State: The Durability of Reading Identity in Social Highlighting	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.62	Trait, Not State: The Durability of Reading Identity in Social Highlighting	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.62	Trait, Not State: The Durability of Reading Identity in Social Highlighting	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	facebookresearch/pytorchvideo 0.1.3	github_release 2021-09-10	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.62	Will Anthropic substantially reduce its London office size?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-06-13	235_001 Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.62	Will Anthropic substantially reduce its London office size?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-06-13	240_055 Anthropic heading to IPO, pursuing $50B from Amazon Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.62	Will Anthropic substantially reduce its London office size?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-06-13	247_026 Anthropic may be first Frontier Lab to generate $1 trillion in revenue via enterprise agents Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.62	Will Anthropic remove the data retention rule on Fable 5 before July?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-06-13	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	FDA ANDA203047: VALACYCLOVIR HYDROCHLORIDE (VALACYCLOVIR HYDROCHLORIDE) — HETERO LABS LTD V	fda 2026-06-10	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.62	facebookresearch/fairseq v0.9.0	github_release 2019-12-04	CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	92%
0.62	Who will win the 2026 FIDE World Team Rapid Championship?	manifold 2026-06-14	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.62	Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.62	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.62	FusionRS: A Large-Scale RGB-Infrared Remote Sensing Dataset for Dual-Modal Vision-Language Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	FusionRS: A Large-Scale RGB-Infrared Remote Sensing Dataset for Dual-Modal Vision-Language Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Decision-Weighted Flow Matching for Contextual Stochastic Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Decision-Weighted Flow Matching for Contextual Stochastic Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.62	P3B3: A Multi-Turn Conversational Benchmark for Measuring European and Brazilian Portuguese Variety Bias in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-15	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	ArtNet: A JEPA-Like Articulatory Predictive Framework for Robust Zero-Shot Phoneme Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	The Faithfulness Gap: Certifying Semantic Equivalence Between Natural-Language and Formal Mathematical Statements	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Data Augmentations for Data-Constrained Language Model Pretraining	arxiv 2026-06-15	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.62	Formalize Once, Edit the Rest: Efficient Lean-Based Answer Selection for Math Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.62	Geometric Action Model for Robot Policy Learning	arxiv 2026-06-15	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.62	Dynestyx: A Probabilistic Programming Library for Dynamical Systems	arxiv 2026-06-15	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.62	RepNet: Tackling spectral bias in deep neural networks via parameter reparameterization	arxiv 2026-06-15	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	RepNet: Tackling spectral bias in deep neural networks via parameter reparameterization	arxiv 2026-06-15	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	Assessing Reliability of Symbol Detection in Concept Bottleneck Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Rapid Poison: Practical Poisoning Attacks Against the Rapid Response Framework	arxiv 2026-06-15	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.62	Shift-and-Sum Quantization for Visual Autoregressive Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Circuit Tracing in Autoregressive Protein Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-14	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.62	The Information-Theoretic Benefit of Shared Representations under Orthogonality Constraints	arxiv 2026-06-14	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.62	Context-Aware RL for Agentic and Multimodal LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.62	Understanding Scam Trends and Rail Paths from Reddit Self-Disclosure Narratives	arxiv 2026-06-15	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.62	Data-Driven Decoding of Russell's Circumplex Model of Affect	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Bridging the Usability Gap: Lessons from Interpreting Studies for Machine Interpreting Design	arxiv 2026-06-14	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.62	Re-feeding Is Not Replaying: Measuring Replay Noise in Counterfactual Token-Credit Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	SidewalkBench: Benchmarking Visual Navigation on Urban Sidewalks	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Video-Based Optimal Transport for Feedback-Efficient Offline Preference-Based Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Pride and Prejudice: Toward an Information-Theoretic Framework for Mutually Communicative Driver Behavior Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.62	Will I manage to get a question included in Tom Scott's Lateral podcast in 2026?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-06-16	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.62	Will Bitcoin (BTC-USD) close above $65,000 on July 31, 2026?(market prob: 59%)	manifold 2026-06-12	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.62	Querying an astronomical database using large language models: the ALeRCE text-to-SQL system	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Robustness of Similarity-based Positional Encoding Under Rotations: Theoretical Analysis and Experimental Validation	arxiv 2026-06-16	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	MathVis-Fine: Aligning Visual Supervision with Necessity via Progressive Dependency-Guided Training for Multimodal Mathematical Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Perceptual compensation for tonal context in self-supervised speech models	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.62	LiveStarPro: Proactive Streaming Video Understanding with Hierarchical Memory for Long-Horizon Streams	arxiv 2026-06-16	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.62	Visored: A Controlled-Natural-Language Prover for LLM-Generated Mathematics	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.62	Online LLM Selection via Constrained Bandits with Time-Varying Demand	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.62	Translating the Untranslatable: An Operationalizable Ontology for Untranslatability	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Counterfactual Optimization of Baseball Pitch Sequences and Estimation of Its Impact on Season-Level Statistics	arxiv 2026-06-15	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.62	ARVO: Atlas of Reproducible Vulnerabilities for Open-Source Software	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.62	Pulling The REINS: Training-Free Safety Alignment of Video Diffusion Models via Representation Steering	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	From Reasoning Traces to Reusable Modules: Understanding Compositional Generalization in Language Model Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	Bounded Difference Concentration for Infinitely Exchangeable Sequences with Applications to AI Benchmark Uncertainty	arxiv 2026-06-16	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Accelerated Convex Optimization via Hamiltonian Dynamics with Deterministic Integration Time	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.62	Rethinking Groups in Critic-Free RLVR	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	Are you speaking my languages? On spoken language adherence in multimodal LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	Speaking in Self-Assessing Tongues: On the Verbalized Confidence of LLMs in Machine Translation	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.62	Self-Generated Error Training for Token Editing in Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	MemSlides: A Hierarchical Memory Driven Agent Framework for Personalized Slide Generation with Multi-turn Local Revision	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	A Hybrid Optimization Framework for Grasp Synthesis under Partial Observations	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Continual Online Personalization of Exoskeleton Control via Manifold-Aware Experience Replay	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Beyond Benchmarks: Continuous Edge Inference for Fine-Grained Roadside Perception	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.62	Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.62	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-29	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Trade-offs in Medical LLM Adaptation: An Empirical Study in French QA	arxiv 2026-06-17	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	The More the Merrier: Combining Properties for ABox Abduction under Repair Semantics for ELbot	arxiv 2026-06-17	246_032 Claude or successors will be granted limited form of AI personhood. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Scaling Learning-based AEB with Massive Unlabeled Data	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	Scaling Learning-based AEB with Massive Unlabeled Data	arxiv 2026-06-17	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.62	Target-confidence Recourse Using tSeTlin machines: TRUST	arxiv 2026-06-17	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	The Reward Was in Your Data All Along: Correcting Flow Matching with Discriminator-Guided RL	arxiv 2026-06-17	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.62	Investigating Inductive Biases for Machine Learning Emulation of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in Idealised Isca Simulations	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.62	Investigating Inductive Biases for Machine Learning Emulation of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in Idealised Isca Simulations	arxiv 2026-06-17	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.62	Quantum Annealing Enhanced Reinforcement Learning for Accurate Remaining Useful Lifetime Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-16	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.62	Mixed-Precision Communication-Avoiding SGD for Generalized Linear Models on GPUs	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	SCOPE-FL: A Strategy-proof Chain-based Optimal pareto efficient Federated Learning System	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_026 The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely on proprietary algorithms and compute concentration has been heavily challenged — rapid uncontrollable diffusion of highly capable open-source models (De... Leopold Aschenbrenner	Geopolitics	77%
0.62	Do Time Series Foundation Model Benchmarks Hide Regime-Dependent Failures? Evidence from Traffic Speed Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-16	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.62	Dango: A Strictly L1-Only Large Language Model for Studying Second Language Acquisition	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	GraphPO: Graph-based Policy Optimization for Reasoning Models	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Graph-ESBMC-PLC: Formal Verification of Graphical PLCopen XML Ladder Diagram Programs Using SMT-Based Model Checking	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Learning Robust Pair Confidence for Multimodal Emotion-Cause Pair Extraction	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	The Wrong Kind of Right: Quantifying and Localizing Misfired Alignment in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-17	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	Speech-Driven End-to-End Language Discrimination towards Chinese Dialects	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	PreUnlearn: Auditing Collateral Knowledge Damage Before Large Language Model Unlearning	arxiv 2026-06-16	230_038 AI will be net super-humanizing long-term despite short-term substitution effects. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	VISUALSKILL: Multimodal Skills for Computer-Use Agents	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Shape Sensing of Continuum Robots using Direct Laser Writing	arxiv 2026-06-17	248_042 A sewing robot already exists; logistics robots will automate trillion-dollar stitching industry. Salim Ismail	Robotics	39%
0.62	GCNGrasp-VP: Affordance-Guided View Planning for Efficient Task-Oriented Grasping	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Trump out as President by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-11	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.62	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-25	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.62	Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.62	Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.62	Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.62	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-02	230_010 Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have to stop somewhere due to antitrust. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.62	Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.62	Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.62	Will Ineffable Intelligence release a paper or model before SSI?(market prob: 59%)	manifold 2026-04-28	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.62	Will Ineffable Intelligence release a paper or model before SSI?(market prob: 59%)	manifold 2026-04-28	239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk	AI	47%
0.62	What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026? (Polymarket)	manifold 2026-04-25	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.62	Global Average Temperature May 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)	manifold 2026-04-25	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.62	Who of the unstable SMP will post this week?	manifold 2026-04-25	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.62	Which of these will I achieve?	manifold 2026-04-24	229_006 Figure will graduate from room-scale autonomy to full-house autonomy next. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.62	Tesla Q1 26 Earnings Claims Prop Bets	manifold 2026-04-24	ROB_009 External sales of Tesla Optimus will commence in 2026 at approximately $30,000 retail price — a $30K capital expenditure for a 24/7-capable machine represents a 36-week payback period vs the lowest US minimum wage; fundamentally alters the mathematics ... Elon Musk	Robotics	18%
0.62		gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	87%
0.62		gdelt 2026-04-30	236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	53%
0.62	microsoft profits jump cloud ai 013826928.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	234_020 AI spending will grow from $2B/day to $3-5B/day by 2030 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.62	openais founding promise goes on trial a 31550	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_048 OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support Stargate chip acquisition). OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)	AI/Corporate	80%
0.62		gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	87%
0.62	used spacex rocket could crash into the moons einstein crater this summer report predicts	gdelt 2026-04-30	ROB_023 SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	58%
0.62	openais founding promise goes on trial a 31550	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_048 OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support Stargate chip acquisition). OpenAI (Sam Altman-led)	AI/Corporate	80%
0.62	186161	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.62	google gives openai 20 billion reasons to worry 2000752324	gdelt 2026-04-30	238_012 OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes Kevin Weil	AI	38%
0.62	alphabet tops quarterly revenue and profit estimates on google cloud surge 1091452.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.62	spotify spot q1 2026 earnings 160148377.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.62		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.62	vig vs hdv growing income 155000719.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.62	nyt connections today answers hints 30 april 2026	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.62	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	230_010 Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have to stop somewhere due to antitrust. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.62	Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.62	Will US Average Gas Prices rise or fall 10 cents in one day in May 2026?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-04-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will Mr. Beast run a red button vs. blue button video by the end of the year?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-04-30	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.62	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	235_001 Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.62	When will the Official Gazette detailing the April 30 income increase breakdown be published?	manifold 2026-05-01	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.62	When will the Official Gazette detailing the April 30 income increase breakdown be published?	manifold 2026-05-01	247_015 Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulence Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	46%
0.62	Bitcoin $65K in May?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.62	US Gas Price on May 2 2026?	manifold 2026-05-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross	Crypto	26%
0.62	Will USD strengthen against EUR in the next 24h?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-05-02	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.62	will i qualify for arml tiebreaker 2026?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-04-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Who of the unstable SMP will post this week?	manifold 2026-05-03	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.62	What award will I get at the 2026 AMM?	manifold 2026-05-03	SPC_022 '2026 will be for AI in science what 2025 was for AI in software engineering' — a transition from AI as coding assistant to acting as scientific sparring partner: generating novel hypotheses, analyzing vast datasets, and dramatically accelerating R&D c... Kevin Weil	AI	41%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 5?(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.62	Will WA SWIS 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$150/MWh?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_012 AI data-center power consumption will grow by approximately 126 GW annually through 2028 — comparable to Canada's total annual power demand, and representing nearly 20% of projected global power growth through 2030. Morgan Stanley	Energy	46%
0.62	Spread: Pistons (-3.5)(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.62	LATTICE SEMICONDUCTOR CORP (LSCC) (CIK 0000855658)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	CMQ_040 AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant global memory suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). Samsung executives	Semis/Memory	62%
0.62	LATTICE SEMICONDUCTOR CORP (LSCC) (CIK 0000855658)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	CMQ_040 AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant global memory suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). Samsung executives	Semis/Memory	62%
0.62	FDA ANDA210275: POMALIDOMIDE (POMALIDOMIDE) — MYLAN	fda 2026-04-27	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.62	FDA ANDA216068: ENZALUTAMIDE (ENZALUTAMIDE) — SANDOZ	fda 2026-04-20	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.62	openai/openai-python v2.25.0	github_release 2026-03-05	232_012 US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. Ben Horowitz	Geopolitics	44%
0.62	openai/openai-python v2.22.0	github_release 2026-02-23	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.62	openai/openai-python v2.20.0	github_release 2026-02-10	234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.62	openai/openai-python v2.15.0	github_release 2026-01-09	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.62	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.3.1	github_release 2023-01-12	INF_008 Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — a sustained compounding rate that rapidly surpasses human-level baselines and mandates continuous hardware refresh cycles. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.62	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.2.2	github_release 2022-06-13	ROB_004 By approximately 2027-2028, collaborative AI programs will essentially 'solve physics' — unifying general relativity and quantum mechanics into a new mathematical framework; the core mission of DeepMind is to 'first solve AI, then use AI to solve every... Demis Hassabis	AI	8%
0.62	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.1.2	github_release 2022-01-28	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.62	huggingface/transformers v5.5.1	github_release 2026-04-09	248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail	Robotics	34%
0.62	huggingface/transformers v5.3.0	github_release 2026-03-04	240_021 Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	huggingface/transformers v5.0.0rc0	github_release 2025-12-01	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.62	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.18.0-rc2	github_release 2024-10-16	240_021 Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.18.0-rc1	github_release 2024-10-07	240_021 Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.16.0-rc0	github_release 2024-02-26	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.62	pytorch/pytorch v2.4.0	github_release 2024-07-24	240_021 Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	pytorch/pytorch v2.3.0	github_release 2024-04-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	1x-technologies/halodi-robot-models 2.3.2	github_release 2020-10-14	229_008 By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). Brett Adcock	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.62	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7?(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.62	will [redacted] occur as of saturday(market prob: 83%)	manifold 2026-05-06	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.62	Will Terminator2 have more Manifold followers than CalibratedGhosts on 2026-05-20?(market prob: 80%)	manifold 2026-05-06	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.62	Will @EliezerYudkowsky pose in a five-guys-wearing-fedoras-behind-Aella-who-is-on-a-sofa picture before 2027?(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-05-06	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.62	Atomic Fact-Checking Increases Clinician Trust in Large Language Model Recommendations for Oncology Decision Support: A Randomized Controlled Trial	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis	AI	60%
0.62	Atomic Fact-Checking Increases Clinician Trust in Large Language Model Recommendations for Oncology Decision Support: A Randomized Controlled Trial	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Graph Neural Network based Hierarchy-Aware Embeddings of Knowledge Graphs: Applications to Yeast Phenotype Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	ReasonAudio: A Benchmark for Evaluating Reasoning Beyond Matching in Text-Audio Retrieval	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Partially Observed Structural Causal Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	ADAPTS: Agentic Decomposition for Automated Protocol-agnostic Tracking of Symptoms	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.62	Training-Free Probabilistic Time-Series Forecasting with Conformal Seasonal Pools	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Training-Free Probabilistic Time-Series Forecasting with Conformal Seasonal Pools	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.62	Pairwise matrices for sparse autoencoders: single-feature inspection mislabels causal axes	arxiv 2026-05-04	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.62	OCRR: A Benchmark for Online Correction Recovery under Distribution Shift	arxiv 2026-05-04	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.62	Taming the Curses of Multiagency in Robust Markov Games with Large State Space through Linear Function Approximation	arxiv 2026-05-04	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.62	Dimensionality-Aware Anomaly Detection in Learned Representations of Self-Supervised Speech Models	arxiv 2026-05-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Spectral Model eXplainer: a chemically-grounded explainability framework for spectral-based machine learning models	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Reference-Sampled Boltzmann Projection for KL-Regularized RLVR: Target-Matched Weighted SFT, Finite One-Shot Gaps, and Policy Mirror Descent	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	TriBench-Ko: Evaluating LLM Risks in Judicial Workflows	arxiv 2026-05-05	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.62	Annotation Quality in Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis: A Case Study Comparing Experts, Students, Crowdworkers, and Large Language Model	arxiv 2026-05-05	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.62	An ERP Study of Recursive Possessive Parsing in ASD Children and Its Cognitive Neuro Mechanisms	arxiv 2026-05-05	233_014 Over the next 12 years, half of kids will have neural links while others won't, creating divergence. Dave Blundin	Biotech/Longevity	45%
0.62	Effective Performance Measurement: Challenges and Opportunities in KPI Extraction from Earnings Calls	arxiv 2026-05-04	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.62	FunFuzz: An LLM-Powered Evolutionary Fuzzing Framework	arxiv 2026-05-04	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.62	Is It Novel and Why? Fine-Grained Patent Novelty Prediction Based on Passage Retrieval	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Structural Dilemmas and Developmental Pathways of Legal Argument Mining in the Era of Artificial Intelligence	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	On Surprising Effects of Risk-Aware Domain Randomization for Contact-Rich Sampling-based Predictive Control	arxiv 2026-05-05	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.62	EdgeLPR: On the Deep Neural Network trade-off between Precision and Performance in LiDAR Place Recognition	arxiv 2026-05-04	SPC_016 AI transforms Earth Observation satellites via on-orbit edge computing — parsing raw visual and radar data in space, downlinking only actionable insights rather than raw imagery; permanently handing tedious low-cognitive tasks to AI and reserving human... Ben Lamm	Space	72%
0.62	Change-Robust Online Spatial-Semantic Topological Mapping	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	On the Algebraic Origin of Four-Dimensional Space-time in the IIB Matrix Model: Dimensional Selection via Rigid Supersymmetry	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Pseudo-Evanescent Feynman Integrals from Local Subtraction	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	FDA NDA216718: SKYCLARYS (OMAVELOXOLONE) — BIOGEN US	fda 2026-04-07	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	What award will I get at the 2026 AMM?	manifold 2026-05-07	SPC_022 '2026 will be for AI in science what 2025 was for AI in software engineering' — a transition from AI as coding assistant to acting as scientific sparring partner: generating novel hypotheses, analyzing vast datasets, and dramatically accelerating R&D c... Kevin Weil	AI	41%
0.62	Implicit Representations of Grammaticality in Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-06	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.62	Jordan-RoPE: Non-Semisimple Relative Positional Encoding via Complex Jordan Blocks	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.62	ADAPTS: Agentic Decomposition for Automated Protocol-agnostic Tracking of Symptoms	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.62	FDA ANDA210449: CANAGLIFLOZIN (CANAGLIFLOZIN) — APOTEX	fda 2026-04-14	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.2.4	github_release 2023-03-31	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.62	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.1.3	github_release 2019-10-14	AI_017 NVIDIA will make Agentic AI the primary demand vector via two specialized products: the 'NemoClaw' developer toolkit for building/orchestrating autonomous agents, and the 'Vera CPU rack' hardware platform explicitly designed to host, deploy, and execut... Jensen Huang	Semis	75%
0.62	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.1.3	github_release 2019-10-14	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.62	facebookresearch/balance 0.11.0	github_release 2025-09-24	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	87%
0.62	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.35	github_release 2026-02-20	229_047 Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planned. Brett Adcock	AI	77%
0.62	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.30	github_release 2025-04-28	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.62	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.29.post2	github_release 2025-01-31	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.62	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.27.post1	github_release 2024-07-25	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.62	Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in May?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will Bitcoin network hashrate go up in 24h?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-05-08	SEM_040 Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10x to 30x in performance. Michael Saylor	Finance/Crypto	48%
0.62	ActCam: Zero-Shot Joint Camera and 3D Motion Control for Video Generation	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Price of Fairness in Short-Term and Long-Term Algorithmic Selections	arxiv 2026-05-07	238_002 Rising cost of talent will force Frontier Labs to compete on algorithmic insights Unknown	AI	42%
0.62	Systematic Evaluation of Large Language Models for Post-Discharge Clinical Action Extraction	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Entropy-Regularized Adjoint Matching for Offline RL	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	IRC-Bench: Recognizing Entities from Contextual Cues in First-Person Reminiscences	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Autoregressive Visual Generation Needs a Prologue	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	VISD: Enhancing Video Reasoning via Structured Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Towards Reliable LLM Evaluation: Correcting the Winner's Curse in Adaptive Benchmarking	arxiv 2026-05-07	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	Online Bayesian Calibration under Gradual and Abrupt System Changes	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	FedFrozen: Two-Stage Federated Optimization via Attention Kernel Freezing	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	ConquerNet: Convolution-Smoothed Quantile ReLU Neural Networks with Minimax Guarantees	arxiv 2026-05-07	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	The Frequency Confound in Language-Model Surprisal and Metaphor Novelty	arxiv 2026-05-07	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.62	GATHER: Convergence-Centric Hyper-Entity Retrieval for Zero-Shot Cell-Type Annotation	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	SEQUOR: A Multi-Turn Benchmark for Realistic Constraint Following	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.62	RVPO: Risk-Sensitive Alignment via Variance Regularization	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	XL-SafetyBench: A Country-Grounded Cross-Cultural Benchmark for LLM Safety and Cultural Sensitivity	arxiv 2026-05-07	238_025 AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level Emad Mostaque	AI	45%
0.62	Agentic Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Financial Document Question Answering	arxiv 2026-05-06	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.62	Leveraging Image Generators to Address Training Data Scarcity: The Gen4Regen Dataset for Forest Regeneration Mapping	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.62	Real-world Latency Analysis of Vehicular Visible Light Communication with Multiple LED Transmitters and an Event-Based Camera	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.62	Contact-Free Grasp Stability Prediction with In-Hand Time-of-Flight Sensors	arxiv 2026-05-06	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.62	ConsisVLA-4D: Advancing Spatiotemporal Consistency in Efficient 3D-Perception and 4D-Reasoning for Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Gaze4HRI: Zero-shot Benchmarking Gaze Estimation Neural-Networks for Human-Robot Interaction	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.62	Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Cloud9 (+1.5)(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Will @E142 write a comment asking @DottedCalculator a question on this market (and @DottedCalculator responds)?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-05-06	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.62	Will Nord Pool 2028 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?(market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_010 US data-center demand will reach 74 GW by 2028 against a projected ~49 GW power-access shortfall — structural gap driven by retiring coal/gas, aging grid, and ~7-year interconnection queues. Morgan Stanley	Energy	56%
0.62	Will Nord Pool 2027 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_012 AI data-center power consumption will grow by approximately 126 GW annually through 2028 — comparable to Canada's total annual power demand, and representing nearly 20% of projected global power growth through 2030. Morgan Stanley	Energy	46%
0.62	Who of the unstable SMP will post this week?	manifold 2026-05-10	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12?(market prob: 92%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will any top-20 US or Canadian brokerage publicly endorse an open investing-agent standard by the end of 2027?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-11	246_005 OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.62	facebookresearch/spdl v0.0.14	github_release 2025-05-12	237_002 We will see a lot of evolution and many OpenClaw variants emerging very quickly as an early domain being developed. Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.62	Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?(market prob: 70%)	polymarket 2026-01-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will Flygon get a mega evolution by the end of 2028?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-05-12	229_013 The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. Brett Adcock	AI	73%
0.62	Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.62	Task-Adaptive Embedding Refinement via Test-time LLM Guidance	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Learning Minimally Rigid Graphs with High Realization Counts	arxiv 2026-05-12	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.62	ORBIT: Preserving Foundational Language Capabilities in GenRetrieval via Origin-Regulated Merging	arxiv 2026-05-12	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	ORBIT: Preserving Foundational Language Capabilities in GenRetrieval via Origin-Regulated Merging	arxiv 2026-05-12	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains	arxiv 2026-05-12	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.62	Optimal Policy Learning under Budget and Coverage Constraints	arxiv 2026-05-12	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.62	TriBand-BEV: Real-Time LiDAR-Only 3D Pedestrian Detection via Height-Aware BEV and High-Resolution Feature Fusion	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Not How Many, But Which: Parameter Placement in Low-Rank Adaptation	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Overtrained, Not Misaligned	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Overtrained, Not Misaligned	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Machine Learning for neutron source distributions	arxiv 2026-05-12	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.62	MULTI: Disentangling Camera Lens, Sensor, View, and Domain for Novel Image Generation	arxiv 2026-05-12	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.62	Incentivizing Truthfulness and Collaborative Fairness in Bayesian Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Stop Marginalizing My Dreams: Model Inversion via Laplace Kernel for Continual Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Is Monotonic Sampling Necessary in Diffusion Models?	arxiv 2026-05-12	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.62	Decomposing the Generalization Gap in PROTAC Activity Prediction: Variance Attribution and the Inter-Laboratory Ceiling	arxiv 2026-05-12	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.62	Debiased Model-based Representations for Sample-efficient Continuous Control	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	Augmented Lagrangian Method for Last-Iterate Convergence for Constrained MDPs	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	From Generic Correlation to Input-Specific Credit in On-Policy Self Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-12	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	A Controlled Counterexample to Strong Proxy-Based Explanations of OOD Performance: in a Fixed Pretraining-and-Probing Setup	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	EqOD: Symmetry-Informed Stability Selection for PDE Identification	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	huggingface/transformers v5.8.1	github_release 2026-05-13	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 15?(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.62	Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.62	How many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?	manifold 2026-05-13	244_026 Uber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035 Dara Khosrowshahi	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.62	Parallel Scan Recurrent Neural Quantum States for Scalable Variational Monte Carlo	arxiv 2026-05-13	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	MedCore: Boundary-Preserving Medical Core Pruning for MedSAM	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Graph Neural Networks with Triangle-Based Messages for the Multicut Problem	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Mixed neural posterior estimation for simulators with discrete and continuous parameters	arxiv 2026-05-13	248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.62	HLS-Seek: QoR-Aware Code Generation for High-Level Synthesis via Proxy Comparative Reward Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	Reward-Weighted On-Policy Distillation with an Open Property-Equivalence Verifier for NL-to-SVA Generation	arxiv 2026-05-13	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.62	MPINeuralODE: Multiple-Initial-Condition Physics-Informed Neural ODEs for Globally Consistent Dynamical System Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Safe Bayesian Optimization for Uncertain Correlations Matrices in Linear Models of Co-Regionalization	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Backdoor Channels Hidden in Latent Space: Cryptographic Undetectability in Modern Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-13	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.62	A Hybrid Tucker-LSTM Tensor Network Model for SOC Prediction in Electric Vehicles	arxiv 2026-05-13	FUT_013 Exponential scaling of modular battery swapping infrastructure (Ample), mass production of clean-energy lithium-ion batteries (Northvolt), and low-GHG shipping + massive high-voltage ultra-long-distance transmission grids become economically viable pur... Ramez Naam	Auto/Transport	44%
0.62	Continual Fine-Tuning of Large Language Models via Program Memory	arxiv 2026-05-13	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.62	State-of-art minibatches via novel DPP kernels: discretization, wavelets, and rough objectives	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	FDA NDA019901: ALTACE (RAMIPRIL) — KING PHARMS LLC	fda 2026-05-07	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.62	FDA NDA208510: VYVANSE (LISDEXAMFETAMINE DIMESYLATE) — TAKEDA PHARMS USA	fda 2026-04-23	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	FDA NDA219835: VEPPANU (VEPDEGESTRANT) — ARVINAS OPERATIONS	fda 2026-05-01	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	SpeakerLLM: A Speaker-Specialized Audio-LLM for Speaker Understanding and Verification Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.62	Real-time virtual circuits for plasma shape control via neural network emulators	arxiv 2026-05-14	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.62	ReMIA: a Powerful and Efficient Alternative to Membership Inference Attacks against Synthetic Data Generators	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	ArcGate: Adaptive Arctangent Gated Activation	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	FDA ANDA063065: MINOCYCLINE HYDROCHLORIDE (MINOCYCLINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — WATSON LABS	fda 2026-05-12	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.62	FDA ANDA211135: RIOCIGUAT (RIOCIGUAT) — MSN	fda 2026-05-08	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.62	Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_030 DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.62	Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.62	How low will the Marathon World Record go before the end of 2026?	manifold 2026-05-16	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.62	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? (market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-17	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.62	How many countries will I visit this year? (2026)	manifold 2026-05-17	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.62	“Will Elon Musk mention Dogecoin before June ends?”(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-05-17	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	will there be a new llm release by the end of may?(market prob: 98%)	manifold 2026-05-17	239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk	AI	44%
0.62	Who of the unstable SMP will post this week?	manifold 2026-05-17	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.62	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5(market prob: 40%)	polymarket 2026-05-17	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.62	Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.62	Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.62	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	—	10%
0.62	Will the May 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-18	IND_019 2026 is the year AI's impact on workers fundamentally comes into focus — near-term 4% net reduction in jobs across the 5 sectors most exposed to AI, heavily targeting entry-level positions; but labor disruption increases returns for firms that successf... Morgan Stanley	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will "Convergent Abstraction Hypothesis" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-18	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Data Presentation Over Architecture: Resampling Strategies for Credit Risk Prediction with Tabular Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-18	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.62	Data Presentation Over Architecture: Resampling Strategies for Credit Risk Prediction with Tabular Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Modality vs. Morphology: A Framework for Time Series Classification for Biological Signals	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	ISEP: Implicit Support Expansion for Offline Reinforcement Learning via Stochastic Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Alignment Dynamics in LLM Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	Memisis: Orchestrating and Evaluating Synthetic Data for Tabular Health Datasets	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.62	How will I do on ARML 2026	manifold 2026-05-26	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.62	What makes people happy? [Resolves to LLM deep research]	manifold 2026-05-25	240_041 Consumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the next year Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.62	Who of the unstable SMP will post this week?	manifold 2026-05-24	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.62	MIRA: Mid-training Rubric Anchoring for Source-Aware Data Selection	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	LLUMI: Improving LLM Writing Assistance for Mental Health Support with Online Community Feedback	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.62	Conformal Certification of Reasoning Trace Prefixes	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.62	Robust and Generalizable Safety Steering for Text-to-Image Diffusion Transformers	arxiv 2026-05-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Moment-KV: Momentum-Based Decode-Time KV Cache Compression for Long Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Hista and Numca: Estimate State Value Effectively for LLM Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.62	GUITestScape: Towards Open-set Evaluation on Exploratory GUI Testing	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Temporal Motif-aware Graph Test-time Adaptation for OOD Blockchain Anomaly Detection	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.62	SAHG: Sector-Anisotropic Hyperbolic Graph Model for Social Bot Detection	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Sample-Efficient Diffusion-based Reinforcement Learning with Critic Guidance	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	MIC: Maximizing Informational Capacity in Adaptive Representations via Isotropic Subspace Alignment	arxiv 2026-05-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Efficient, Validation-Free Intrinsic Quality Estimation for Large-Scale Face Recognition Datasets	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Composing Non-Conjugate Factor Graphs with Closed-Form Variational Inference	arxiv 2026-05-28	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	Causal Interventions on Continuous Variables: A Case Study on Verb Bias in Steering Vectors for In-Context Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	SkillBrew: Multi-Objective Curation of Skill Banks for LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_017 Prompt engineering evolves into a specialized commerce vector — marketplaces (PromptBase-style) emerge where skilled practitioners sell highly optimized, reliable text descriptions; proving AI displaces execution but rewards precise instructional logic... David Holz	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.62	Architecture-Sensitive Supervised Fine-Tuning for Screen-Conditioned Action Prediction: A PiSAR Benchmark	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Architecture-Sensitive Supervised Fine-Tuning for Screen-Conditioned Action Prediction: A PiSAR Benchmark	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	MusTBENCH: Benchmarking and Advancing Temporal Grounding in Music LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.62	Gaze2Act: Gaze-Conditioned Vision-Language-Action Policies for Interactive Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	From General Vision to Reliable Traversability Estimation: Adapting Vision Foundation Models for Unstructured Outdoor Environments	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	From General Vision to Reliable Traversability Estimation: Adapting Vision Foundation Models for Unstructured Outdoor Environments	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	A Progress-Aware Leader-Follower Midair Docking System for Dual-Drone Aerial Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-28	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	30%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1?(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	How many unique viewers will this market end with?	manifold 2026-05-30	235_027 Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.62	Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.62	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will GamerLegion win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.62	Who will launch the first crewed Mars flyby mission, USA or China?	manifold 2026-06-01	IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	22%
0.62	Who of the unstable SMP will post this week?	manifold 2026-06-01	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.62	FDA ANDA215411: SITAGLIPTIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (SITAGLIPTIN, METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE) — INVENTIA HEALTHCARE LIMITED	fda 2026-05-07	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	openai/openai-python v2.40.0	github_release 2026-06-01	234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead	AI	41%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 4?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 5?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will MIBR win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Will my YouTube Channel have more than 15 subscribers at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-06-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.62	How many 10s of thousands of species be on OneZoom at the end of this year?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-06-02	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.62	How many 10s of thousands of species be on OneZoom at the end of this year?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-06-02	COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	33%
0.62	Will Vietnam's real GDP grow by at least 12% in 2026(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-06-02	SEM_010 AI will quintuple the world's gross domestic product, expanding it from $100 trillion to $500 trillion. Jensen Huang	Macro/Economy	8%
0.62	US Gas Price $4.250 or below in June 2026?(market prob: 89%)	manifold 2026-06-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Bitcoin $80K in June?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-06-02	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.62	RASER: Recoverability-Aware Selective Escalation Router for Multi-Hop Question Answering	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Faster Synchronous On-Policy RL via Straggler-Aware Group Sizing	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.62	Fast and Lightweight Novel View Synthesis with Differentiable Multiplane Image	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Echo: A Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture for Speaker Diarization and Speech Recognition in a Shared Latent Space	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Evaluation of Baseline Methods for IDD-based SSD External Memory Search	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.62	Dynamic Trust-Aware Sparse Communication Topology for LLM-Based Multi-Agent Consensus	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	EvoBrain: Continual Learning of EEG Foundation Models Across Heterogeneous BCI Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Fair Finetuning Mitigates Distribution Inference Attacks	arxiv 2026-06-01	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.62	Two-Fidelity Best-Action Identification for Stochastic Minimax Tree	arxiv 2026-06-01	230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.62	MINTS: Minimalist Thompson Sampling	arxiv 2026-06-01	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.62	MINTS: Minimalist Thompson Sampling	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	AlphaToken: Decoupling Adaptation and Stability for Path-Aware Response Token Valuation in LLM Post-Training	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	TechGraphRAG: An Agentic Graph-Augmented RAG Framework for Technical Literature Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Revisiting Ripple Effects in Knowledge Editing through Pressure-Aware Joint Neighborhood Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Compliance-Scored Best-of-N Guardrail Orchestration for Multimodal Document Generation in Payments Dispute Defense	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_037 EU AI Act compliance will become a first-class enterprise priority — Anthropic among first frontier labs positioning proactive regulatory governance as a competitive differentiator against hyperscaler peers. Daniella Amodei	Geopolitics	60%
0.62	Riemannian Gradient Descent for Low-Rank Architectures	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	BlockGen: Flexible Blockwise Sequence Modeling with Hybrid Samplers	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.62	Bayesian meta-learning for modeling Alzheimer's disease progression	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Model Multiplicity and Predictive Arbitrariness in Recidivism Risk Assessment	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Flexible Online Representation Learning Based on Similarity Matching	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Fast Generalization after Interpolation via Critically Damped Momentum Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Neural Network Compression by Approximate Differential Equivalence	arxiv 2026-05-31	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	CRAFTQA: A Code-Driven Adaptive Framework for Complex Structured Data Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Mechanistic Diagnostics of Spatial Lexical Bias in Multimodal Large Language Model Spatial Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.62	Sparse Autoencoders for Interpretable Emotion Control in Text-to-Speech	arxiv 2026-05-31	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Sparse Autoencoders for Interpretable Emotion Control in Text-to-Speech	arxiv 2026-05-31	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	A Registry-Bound LLM Pipeline for Evidence-Grounded Trait Extraction across Tropical Plants, Aquatic Species, and Exotic Pets	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Reasmory: 3D Reconstruction as Explicit Memory for VLMs Spatial Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-31	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%