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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-31 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | ||
| 0.68 | Longevity escape velocity before 2030?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | FUT_016 Next 5 years (2026-2030) require individuals + organizations to adopt 'FLUX' superpowers — ability to transform constant uncertainty into strategic advantage. Traditional linear career paths dissolve entirely by 2030, replaced by fluid portfolio-based ... April Rinne | Labor/Jobs | 44% | |
| 0.68 | Bitcoin $85K in May?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-05 | ROB_023 SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026. Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 58% | ||
| 0.68 | Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 25,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030?(market prob: 72%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | S_ROBOTAXI_NATIONWIDE_2028 Robotaxi nationwide expansion by Nov 2028 | robotaxi_deployment | 45% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 242_028 AI could automate 25% of US work hours Goldman Sachs | Labor/Jobs | 39% | ||
| 0.68 | Will Polymarket IPO on December 30, 2026?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 48% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-06 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | ||
| 0.68 | Will a humanoid robot walk on the mars before a human does?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 234_049 First lunar and Mars cities will be built from scratch via humanoid robot construction Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 36% | |
| 0.68 | Will 2+ bots beat master league in 2026?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-02 | CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.68 | Bitcoin $80K in June?(market prob: 3%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-02 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-05 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 234_014 We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 59% | ||
| 0.68 | Will Qwen 3.6+ 122B A10B be open weights before July 2026?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.68 | Will Anthropic release Claude Opus 5 by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 68%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.68 | Will Bitcoin reach $90K USD in May 2026?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.68 | Bitcoin $80K in May?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.68 | Will WA SWIS 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$135/MWh?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_032 Residential electricity costs are a structural byproduct of DC buildout: Washington state household electricity costs rose 10.3% from 2024 to 2025 directly tied to infrastructure strain, with utility-proposed rate increases projecting residential price... Seattle Met / Washington State regulators | Macro/Economy | 54% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-11 | INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-10 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 240_057 OpenAI will have another day in the sun with core AI subscription strategy Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.68 | Will Apple's WWDC 2026 keynote include any verbal reference to OpenAI?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.68 | Will the May 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-19 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | ||
| 0.68 | Will Apple mention Anthropic or Claude in its WWDC 2026 keynote?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | |
| 0.68 | Bitcoin above 90k before 2027?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.68 | Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028?(market prob: 49%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.68 | Will May 2026 U.S. personal income rise at least 0.4% month-over-month?(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 242_056 AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 25% | ||
| 0.68 | Will I get an AI lab offer?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | 240_022 All five major AI labs will be worth trillions of dollars Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-06 | SPC_012 SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical prerequisite for future Mars missions, enabling Starship depot-based beyond-LEO operations. Peter Diamandis | Space | 41% | ||
| 0.68 | Will Polymarket IPO on December 30, 2026?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.68 | Will Stephen Colbert run for president in 2028?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-05-15 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.68 | Will there be many more cyber vulnerabilities in 2027 due to AI?(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 237_001 Increased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become more and more prevalent. Peter Diamandis | AI | 55% | |
| 0.68 | Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? [Polymarket](market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.68 | Will there be a physical protest at Discord headquarters before 2028?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | 230_044 Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. Peter Diamandis | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.68 | Will Blue Moon be launched on Falcon Heavy ?(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | COD_SPC_005 NASA Dragonfly launches on Falcon Heavy in the July 2028 window Codex Research Pack | Space | 33% | |
| 0.68 | Will US unemployment exceed 5% in 2026?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | AUT_007 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll... Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 13% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 38% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-01 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-02 | AI_001 AI will surpass peak human intelligence across ALL economically valuable domains by 2030, extending the sequential maturation roadmap beyond 'independent researcher' (2028) into full-domain superintelligence. Sam Altman | AI | 33% | ||
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-02 | AI_004 AI will be 'smarter than the smartest human' by 2026, driven by fully automated recursive self-improvement loops compounding cognitive gains without human intervention. Elon Musk | AI | 17% | ||
| 0.68 | Humans have consciousness [Convince the Machine #3](market prob: 98%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-11 | CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley | Macro/Economy | 67% | ||
| 0.68 | 30T market cap company before 2027?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.68 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 246_007 SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 35% | ||
| 0.68 | Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.68 | Will Bitcoin be higher than right now, exactly 7 days from now?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | 247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.68 | Will China fly people to the moon before Chinese New Year 2028?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.68 | Will US unemployment exceed 5% in 2026?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.67 | Will QCOM stock reach $300 by the end of 2026?(market prob: 74%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.67 | Will USTC be above $ 0.01 in August 2026(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 248_004 Launching 40,000 V3 Starlinks requires only 3 Starship launches per week over 3 years. Peter Diamandis | Space | 58% | ||
| 0.67 | Gold price above 5,100.00 in June 2026(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-04 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.67 | Will I get a Gold Medal on USAMO 2027?(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 248_003 SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. Peter Diamandis | Space | 79% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-04-30 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.67 | Bitcoin $67K in May?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.67 | Will I get an AI lab offer?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | 241_039 In a year we'll know better which AI labs pull ahead Eric Schmidt | AI | 46% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-05 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.67 | 30T market cap company before 2027?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin | AI/China | 45% | ||
| 0.67 | Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2027?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-07 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 246_026 In next year, significant cyber threats to mitigate from AI models (cited Altman). Sam Altman | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 242_004 Musk ecosystem will lap Nvidia by 1-2 orders of magnitude Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 41% | ||
| 0.67 | Will ClankerView get 100 paying users in 2026?(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.67 | Will MISO Indiana Hub 2027 day-ahead annual average exceed US$55/MWh?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_010 US data-center demand will reach 74 GW by 2028 against a projected ~49 GW power-access shortfall — structural gap driven by retiring coal/gas, aging grid, and ~7-year interconnection queues. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 56% | |
| 0.67 | If ASI is achieved before Manifest 2027, will Manifest 2027 occur?(market prob: 77%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 246_053 ASI (Artificial Superintelligence) coming very soon. Dave Blundin | AI | 43% | |
| 0.67 | Will SpaceX launch a rocket in the next 24h?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | INF_018 SpaceX will pursue orbital data-center megaconstellations — leveraging 24/7 solar, near-absolute-zero vacuum for passive cooling, and eliminating freshwater consumption constraints of terrestrial facilities. Elon Musk | Space | 28% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.67 | Will code vulnerabilities (CVE records) more then double in 2026?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | |
| 0.67 | Thinking Machines acquired by Apple before 2031?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-15 | SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban | Economy | 30% | |
| 0.67 | Bitcoin $100k before End of June 2026?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.67 | Bitcoin $100k before End of June 2026?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-17 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | ||
| 0.67 | 30T market cap company before 2030?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | 235_003 First $100 trillion companies will emerge before end of this decade. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 55% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.67 | Will I be alive at the end of 2029?(market prob: 91%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.67 | Will I have another peak moment in the next 5 years?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade Peter Diamandis | AI | 36% | |
| 0.67 | Will DeepSeek release a model named DeepSeek-R2 by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.67 | Will Bitcoin hit a new all-time high before July 2026?(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 247_004 Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit conversions Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.67 | Will Vietnam's real GDP grow by at least 12% in 2026(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | |
| 0.67 | Will the May 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.3%?(market prob: 82%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 235_003 First $100 trillion companies will emerge before end of this decade. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 55% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 230_005 Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 246_014 Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 40% | ||
| 0.67 | Will Ben Yan experience AI psychosis in 2026?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-02 | CMQ_003 By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintelligence. Sam Altman | AI | 23% | ||
| 0.67 | Will I get an AI lab offer?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-05 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.67 | Bitcoin $83k in May?(market prob: 70%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.67 | Will Apple stop selling the $599 MacBook Neo SKU before the end of 2026?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn | Consumer | 77% | |
| 0.67 | Will TSLA close below $400 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.67 | 30T market cap company before 2030?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | 238_052 $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) Elon Musk | Markets/Stocks | 42% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.67 | Longevity escape velocity before 2030?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | FUT_007 Global economy accelerates into structural demographic depression 2026-2031 — Baby Boomer cohort transitions from high-velocity capital creators/consumers to capital-draining healthcare-dependent retirees; Gen X + Millennials lack numerical mass to rep... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 41% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 238_052 $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) Elon Musk | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.67 | Will the US unemployment rate be >=6.4% in April 2028?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 246_014 Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 40% | ||
| 0.67 | Will 50% or more of the Erdos problems be solved at the end of 2030?(market prob: 68%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-02 | SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin | AI/China | 45% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 242_021 Autonomous ride costs will drop 10x vs today Dave Blundin | Auto/Transport | 48% | ||
| 0.67 | Will I make USAMO in 2027(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.67 | If ASI is achieved before Manifest 2027, will Manifest 2027 occur?(market prob: 77%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade Peter Diamandis | AI | 36% | |
| 0.67 | If ASI is achieved before Manifest 2027, will Manifest 2027 occur?(market prob: 77%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | S_ASI_FAST_2031 ASI fast: RSI within 5y of AGI | asi_recursive_self_improvement | 10% | |
| 0.67 | Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 12,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030?(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 243_031 Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.67 | Will research-level math become a sport akin to chess before 2035?(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 238_020 Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 61% | |
| 0.67 | Will research-level math become a sport akin to chess before 2035?(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | ROB_003 AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery in just 5 years — effectively bringing 2050-era science to 2030. Already manifesting in resolution of long-standing mathematical proofs (e.g. Erdős problems) via advanced reas... Kevin Weil | AI | 45% | |
| 0.67 | Will Sam Altman file a case against anthropic in next 3 months?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-11 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.67 | Will Polymarket IPO on December 30, 2026?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | |
| 0.67 | Will DeepSeek release a model named DeepSeek-R2 by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.67 | Will Bitcoin hit a new all-time high before July 2026?(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.67 | US and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027?(market prob: 23%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | INF_007 OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization of compute power that parallels monopolistic utilities of the early industrial age. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | ||
| 0.67 | Will a rover from Earth land on the planet Mercury by EOY 2051?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | COD_SPC_007 NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist Codex Research Pack | Space | 43% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.67 | Will Apple announce the M5 Mac mini during the WWDC Keynote?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.67 | Will Apple announce the M5 Mac mini during the WWDC Keynote?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.67 | Will there be a data center on the moon Europa by EOY 2066?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 232_049 Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 19% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-04-30 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-01 | SEM_011 Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. Jensen Huang | Capital Markets | 86% | ||
| 0.67 | Bitcoin $69K in May?(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.67 | Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-02 | ROB_003 AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery in just 5 years — effectively bringing 2050-era science to 2030. Already manifesting in resolution of long-standing mathematical proofs (e.g. Erdős problems) via advanced reas... Kevin Weil | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.67 | Will I lose my current job by the end of 2026?(market prob: 23%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | SEM_037 For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, faster, and cheaper by next year (2026-2027). Emad Mostaque | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.67 | Thinking Machines acquired by Apple before 2031?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-15 | 232_035 Apple is sitting on a multi-trillion dollar opportunity to leapfrog back into AI vanguard via hosting open models. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 38% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-16 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.67 | S&P 500 hits 8000 in 2026?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.67 | 30T market cap company before 2030?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | 234_014 We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 59% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 247_027 Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.67 | Will the May 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.3%?(market prob: 82%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 238_017 Uber will automate approximately 30% of its employment this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 51% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-05 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.67 | Will the s&p500 close at 7,000.00 or less before 2028?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 38% | |
| 0.67 | Tesla reaches $400 before $300?(market prob: 70%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 242_020 Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K Elon Musk | Auto/Transport | 31% | |
| 0.67 | Will semiconductors outperform the S&P 500 in 2026?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban | Economy | 30% | |
| 0.67 | will i get a medal at the IPO 2026?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-08 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | ||
| 0.67 | will there be a major linux virus in 2026?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.67 | Will Apple mention OpenAI or ChatGPT in its WWDC 2026 keynote?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn | AI | 41% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 230_044 Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. Peter Diamandis | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.67 | US and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027?(market prob: 23%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin | AI/China | 45% | |
| 0.67 | 30T market cap company before 2027?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 53% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 229_002 Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 56% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.67 | Will Virgin Galactic (SPCE) close at or above $8.00 on June 18, 2026?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 246_002 SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 46% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-05 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | ||
| 0.67 | Will SPY close down on the day of the SpaceX IPO?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.67 | Will US unemployment exceed 5% in 2026?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 48% | ||
| 0.67 | Will Ben Yan experience AI psychosis in 2026?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 237_011 AI agents will have voices in the near future. Alex Finn | AI | 43% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-03 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | ||
| 0.67 | Will I make USAMO in 2027(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 37% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-08 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% |