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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.61	Will Dogecoin reach 106% of its current price in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-05-25	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.61	HPO: Hysteretic Policy Optimization for Stable and Efficient Training under Sparse-Reward Regime	arxiv 2026-05-28	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.61	Conformal Certification of Reasoning Trace Prefixes	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Domain-Specific Data Synthesis for LLMs via Minimal Sufficient Representation Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	RAISE: RAG Design as an Architecture Search Problem	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Test Time Training for Supervised Causal Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.61	LaRA: Layer-wise Representation Analysis for Detecting Data Contamination in RL Post-Training	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.61	HARP: Hadamard-Preconditioned Adaptive Rotation Processor for Extreme LLM Quantization	arxiv 2026-05-28	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	NaRA: Noise-Aware LoRA for Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning of Diffusion LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Personalized Turn-Level User Conversation Satisfaction Benchmark	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Faithful Embeddings of Irregular and Asynchronous Data for Online Log-NCDEs	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.61	Fisher-Preserving Guidance: Training-Free Manifold Constraints for Safe Diffusion Control	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Open World Autoencoding Drift Detection with Novel Class Recognition in Tabular Non-stationary Data Streams	arxiv 2026-05-28	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	MoSSP: A Momentum-Based Single-Loop Stochastic Penalty Method for Nonconvex Constrained DC-Regularized Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-28	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.61	Learning to Perturb Hidden Representations for Generalizable Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.61	Gradient Perturbation: Learning to Perturb Gradients for Adaptive Training	arxiv 2026-05-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Attention as In-Context Empirical Bayes: A Two-Stage View via Particle Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.61	Learning to Feel Materials from Multisensory Tactile Data via Interpretable Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_050 Physical embodied AI represents the 'Fourth Wave' of AI development — projected to scale rapidly and commercially between 2025-2030. Industry analysts (synthesis)	Robotics	41%
0.61	3DVLA: Enhancing Vision-Language-Action Models via 3D Spatial and Instance Understanding	arxiv 2026-05-28	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.61	FDA ANDA211026: MACITENTAN (MACITENTAN) — SEASONS BIOTECH	fda 2026-05-19	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will TYLOO win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	How many unique viewers will this market end with?	manifold 2026-05-30	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.61	Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will GamerLegion win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	FDA ANDA216988: CLONAZEPAM (CLONAZEPAM) — RUBICON RESEARCH	fda 2026-05-21	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Will my YouTube Channel have more than 15 subscribers at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-06-02	232_006 YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content. Peter Diamandis	Media/Ads	51%
0.61	Will Sydney Metro exceed 70,000,000 trips taken in 2026?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-30	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.61	Will ETH be more or less volatile than BTC this week?	manifold 2026-05-29	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	Mitigating Perceptual Judgment Bias in Multimodal LLM-as-a-Judge via Perceptual Perturbation and Reward Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	FOAM: Frequency and Operator Error-Based Adaptive Damping Method for Reducing Staleness-Oriented Error for Shampoo	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.61	FOAM: Frequency and Operator Error-Based Adaptive Damping Method for Reducing Staleness-Oriented Error for Shampoo	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Quantitative Movement Testing: Measuring Patient Movements from a Single Smartphone Video	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Cross-modal linkage risk in clinical vision-language models	arxiv 2026-06-01	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.61	Who Annotates in NLP? A Large-scale Assessment of Human Annotation Reporting between 2018 and 2025	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.61	Topological texture analysis of microscopy images of dynamic casein gelation and its relation to rheological properties	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	STaR-KV: Spatio-Temporal Adaptive Re-weighting for KV Cache Compression in GUI Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.61	EvoBrain: Continual Learning of EEG Foundation Models Across Heterogeneous BCI Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-01	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.61	Fair Finetuning Mitigates Distribution Inference Attacks	arxiv 2026-06-01	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	EvoPool: Evolutionary Programmatic Annotation for Label-Efficient Specialized Supervision	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	S-SPPO: Semantic-Calibrated Self-Play Preference Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	ProtoAda: Prototype-Guided Adaptive Adapter Expansion and Geometric Consolidation for Multimodal Continual Instruction Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Measurement Geometry and Design for Trustworthy Generative Inverse Problems	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	When Tabular Foundation Models Transfer Across Modalities: A Systematic Evaluation Across 95 Datasets, 7 Modalities, and Two Regimes	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.61	Site4Drug: Predicting Drug-Binding Target Sites with an AI Agent	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.61	A Note on Stability for Orthogonalized Matrix Momentum with Client Sampling	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Uncertainty-Calibrated Diffusion for Reliable 3D Molecular Graph Generation	arxiv 2026-06-01	238_055 Marginal cost of production will approach zero for most goods (molecular manufacturing + 3D printing) Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	50%
0.61	RobustModelMaker: Coupling Bootstrap Stability Selection with Leakage-Safe Nested Cross-Validation for Scientific Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Flexible Online Representation Learning Based on Similarity Matching	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Flexible Online Representation Learning Based on Similarity Matching	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Near-Optimal Pure Machine Unlearning for Smooth Strongly Convex Losses	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	CEAR: Certified Ensemble Adversarial Robustness in DNNs	arxiv 2026-05-31	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.61	DECK: A Consistency x Confidence Taxonomy of LLM Hallucinations	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	CARTE: A Benchmark for Mapping Language Model Knowledge Across France	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_034 The AI-native education model will see global adoption within approximately 5 years — driven by sub-$1,000 offline tablets and AI tutors capable of lifting historically lagging demographics (e.g. New Mexico, Sub-Saharan Africa) into top-tier performanc... Joe Liemandt	Education	22%
0.61	FreqLite: A Lightweight Frequency-Decomposed Linear Model with Adaptive Reversible Normalization for Robust Long-Term Time-Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-31	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.61	LongAttnComp: Cross-Family Context Compression for Long-Context Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Connecting the Dots: Benchmarking Reflective Memory in Long-Horizon Dialogue	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	TECCI: Tricky Edits of Collected and Curated Images	arxiv 2026-05-31	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Towards Lightweight Reliability: Using Soft Prompts for Hallucination Mitigation in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-30	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.61	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.1.6	github_release 2020-09-18	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.61	Will CDT RealOruro win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will there be a live action planecrash adaptation before 2029? (Including in development)(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-06-03	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.61	FDA ANDA220143: ANDA220143 ((unspecified)) — HETERO LABS LIMITED	fda 2026-05-22	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-04?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will Solana dip to $60 June 1-7?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.61	Best METR 80% Time Horizon before October 2026	manifold 2026-06-04	COD_SPC_007 NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist Codex Research Pack	Space	43%
0.61	FDA ANDA081099: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — BARR	fda 2026-05-27	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will Nicaragua win on 2026-06-05?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05?(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	ToolChoiceConfusion: Causal Minimal Tool Filtering for Reliable LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.61	CLEAR: Cognition and Latent Evaluation for Adaptive Routing in End-to-End Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	Where does Absolute Position come from in decoder-only Transformers?	arxiv 2026-06-04	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	TLA-Prover: Verifiable TLA+ Specification Synthesis via Preference-Optimized Low-Rank Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Learning Visual Spatial Planning from Symbolic State via Modality-Gap-Aware Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Better Literary Translation: A Multi-Aspect Data Generation and LLM Training Approach	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	QCFuse: Query-Aware Cache Fusion via Compressed View for Efficient RAG Serving	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Consistency Training Along the Transformer Stack	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Performance Evaluation of GraphCast for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting over Brazil	arxiv 2026-06-04	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.61	Reactive Flux Matching: Mechanism Discovery and Adaptive Sampling of Rare Events	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Trust-Aware Predictive Emissions Monitoring for Gas Turbine Fleets with Limited Labelled Data	arxiv 2026-06-04	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.61	Learning solution operators of PDEs with sparse approximation methods	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Causal Longitudinal Prior-Fitted Networks for Counterfactual Outcome Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-04	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.61	Domain-Adapted Small Language Models with Hybrid Post-Processing: Achieving Cost-Efficient, Low-Latency Multi-Label Structured Prediction via LoRA Fine-Tuning on Scarce Data	arxiv 2026-06-04	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.61	T-SAR-JEPA: Self-Supervised Temporal Anomaly Detection in SAR Amplitude Stacks via Latent Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	StableRCA: Robust Graph-Agnostic Mechanism-Level Root Cause Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Mitigating the Curse of Dimensionality in Uniform Convergence of Deep Neural Networks via Smooth Activations	arxiv 2026-06-04	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	GOTabPFN: From Feature Ordering to Compact Tokenization for Tabular Foundation Models on High-Dimensional Data	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.61	GOTabPFN: From Feature Ordering to Compact Tokenization for Tabular Foundation Models on High-Dimensional Data	arxiv 2026-06-03	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.61	Learning-Augmented Online Minimization with Dual Predictions	arxiv 2026-06-03	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.61	ProSPy: A Profiling-Driven SQL-Python Agentic Framework for Enterprise Text-to-SQL	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Can LLMs Be Constrained to the Past? Improving Knowledge Cutoff through Recall-Based Prompting	arxiv 2026-06-04	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Can LLMs Be Constrained to the Past? Improving Knowledge Cutoff through Recall-Based Prompting	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	ReasoningFlow: Discourse Structures for Understanding LLM Reasoning Traces	arxiv 2026-06-03	IND_027 Ongoing 'reasoning boom' where scientific software development operates on a '20-80 human split' — AI handles 80% of cognitive labor, humans handle 20%, driving recursive self-improvement timelines toward the Singularity; fundamental inversion from hum... Eric Schmidt	Labor/Jobs	42%
0.61	Boosting Self-Consistency with Ranking	arxiv 2026-06-03	INF_008 Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — a sustained compounding rate that rapidly surpasses human-level baselines and mandates continuous hardware refresh cycles. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.61	CRAFT: Cost-aware Refinement And Front-aware Tuning of Prompts	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Waypoints Matter: A Systematic Study for Sampling-Based Trajectory Planning	arxiv 2026-06-04	AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.61	RadiusFPS: Efficient Farthest Point Sampling on CPUs and GPUs via Spherical Voxel Pruning	arxiv 2026-06-04	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.61	A Novel Method with Encoder-Decoder for Cross-Sensor Adaptation in Surface Shape Sensing with Sparse Strain Sensors	arxiv 2026-06-04	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.61	WAM-Nav: Asymmetric Latent World-Action Modeling for Unified Visual Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Understanding deconfined quantum critical points from crystalline categorical Landau paradigm	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Dirichlet walls and the end of time	arxiv 2026-06-03	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.61	FDA NDA018569: FUROSEMIDE (FUROSEMIDE) — EPIC PHARMA LLC	fda 2026-06-02	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	At the end of the next 30 days, starting from today (June 7 2026), how many blocks will be broken on mysterybox.art ?	manifold 2026-06-06	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.61	Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks before 2027?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-06-07	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.61	Sparse Subspace-to-Expert Sharing for Task-Agnostic Continual Learning	arxiv 2026-06-05	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.61	PaperFlow: Profiling, Recommending, and Adapting Across Daily Paper Streams	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Mitosis Detection in the Wild: Multi-Tumor and Context-Aware Generalization in the MIDOG 2025 Challenge	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Off-Policy Evaluation with Strategic Agents via Local Disclosure	arxiv 2026-06-05	238_037 Network effects, economics, and game theory will persist in AI agent economy (no singleton takeover) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	When Large Language Models Fail in Healthcare: Evaluating Sensitivity to Prompt Variations	arxiv 2026-06-05	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.61	RETROSPECT: RETROsynthesis via Sequential Prediction, and Chemically Transformed-ranking	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	When is 3D Worth It? A Resource-Performance Frontier for CNNs and Transformers in Lung CT	arxiv 2026-06-05	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.61	When is 3D Worth It? A Resource-Performance Frontier for CNNs and Transformers in Lung CT	arxiv 2026-06-05	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.61	Hearing the Unspoken: Language Model Priors for Acoustic Adversarial Attacks	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	Making the Most of Limited Data: Score-Aware Training for Text-to-Music Generation	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Unified Geometry-Guided ML-FTLE for Tracking Transient Chaos from Scalar Time Series	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Closed-Form Spectral Regularization for Multi-Task Model Merging	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	A Held-Out Transition-Pair Falsifier for Long-Horizon Non-Abelian State Tracking	arxiv 2026-06-05	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.61	FLOWREADER: Min-Cost Flow Optimization for Multi-Modal Long Document Q&A	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Explaining Unsupervised Disease Staging in Huntington's Disease: Insights into Model Representations and Clusters	arxiv 2026-06-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Hierarchical Forecast Reconciliation for Urban Rail Transit Demand Prediction under Operational Disruptions	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.61	Accelerating Reproducible Research in Synthetic EHR Generation	arxiv 2026-06-05	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.61	Sycophantic Praise: Evaluating Excessive Praise in Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.61	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08?(market prob: 79%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will Peru win on 2026-06-08?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	can you just balenciaga it? Before 2027(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-08	248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.61	Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09?(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?(market prob: 29%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Almost Certainly Free Mana: All Options Resolves to YES Except Last Traded Option (you can add answers)	manifold 2026-06-09	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.61	Almost Certainly Free Mana: All Options Resolves to YES Except Last Traded Option (you can add answers)	manifold 2026-06-09	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.61	Will a Claude Fable model be released Tuesday June 9th?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-06-09	230_003 AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Will a Claude Fable model be released Tuesday June 9th?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-06-09	246_029 Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	47%
0.61	Real-time body pose non-verbal communication with a consistency-based reliability measure	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_050 Physical embodied AI represents the 'Fourth Wave' of AI development — projected to scale rapidly and commercially between 2025-2030. Industry analysts (synthesis)	Robotics	41%
0.61	BSTabDiff: Block-Subunit Diffusion Priors for High-Dimensional Tabular Data Generation	arxiv 2026-06-08	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.61	REFLECT: Intervention-Supported Error Attribution for Silent Failures in LLM Agent Traces	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	BareWave: Waveform-Native Flow-Matching Text-to-Speech	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.61	Understanding Quantization-Aware Training: Gradients at Quantized Weights Bias to the Low-Loss Basin	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Hardening Agent Benchmarks with Adversarial Hacker-Fixer Loops	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.61	PAI: Preserving Amplitude Information in Representation-Based Time-Series Anomaly Detection	arxiv 2026-06-08	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.61	Few-shot Class-variable Incremental Audio Classification via Prototype Adaptation and Pseudo Class-variable Training	arxiv 2026-06-08	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	A multi-agent system for spine MRI report generation from multi-sequence imaging	arxiv 2026-06-08	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.61	How Many Counterfactuals Does It Take? Probing VLM Hallucinations Through Circuits and Causal Effects	arxiv 2026-06-07	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.61	PBSD: Privileged Bayesian Self-Distillation for Long-Horizon Credit Assignment	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Counterfactual Transport Flows for Offline Conservative Trajectory Refinement	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.61	Data augmented bootstrap: Unifying confidence interval construction by approximate invariance	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.61	Estimate Collapsibility of Causal Effects in Completed Partial DAGs via Strong d-Convex Hulls	arxiv 2026-06-08	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	CHROMA: Detecting AI-Generated Images through Inter-Channel Color-Space Correlations	arxiv 2026-06-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Speaker-Invariant Representation Learning for Spoofing Detection via Gradient Reversal and A Variational Information Bottleneck	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	Improving the sharpness in neural network-based parametric post-processing of ensemble forecasts	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Routine laboratory trajectories encode the onset of organ-level complications in cancer	arxiv 2026-06-07	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.61	Can LLMs understand LilyPond? A benchmark for symbolic music generation and understanding	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Detection and Interpretability Analysis of Quotation Errors by Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-07	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Friend or Foe? Language as an ideological switch in open-weight LLMs under Russian disinformation stress	arxiv 2026-06-07	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.61	When Correct Decisions Hide Internal Stress: Decision-State Probing in Multimodal Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-07	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.61	Forward-Free Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-06	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.61	DexPIE: Stable Dexterous Policy Improvement from Real-World Experience	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	Autonomous Obstacle Removal for Excavators through Policy Learning with Particle Simulation	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Is Exact Markovianity Fundamental Once Time Is Relational?	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	FDA NDA021909: CHILDREN'S ALLEGRA HIVES (FEXOFENADINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — CHATTEM SANOFI	fda 2026-06-04	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	FDA ANDA207429: SOTALOL HYDROCHLORIDE (SOTALOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — REGCON HOLDINGS	fda 2026-06-05	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	CLP: Collocation-Length Prediction for Zero-Loss Adaptive Multi-Token Inference	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Detecting Speculative Language in Biomedical Texts using Recurrent Neural Tensor Networks	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Instruction Finetuning DeepSeek-R1-8B Model Using LoRA and NEFTune	arxiv 2026-06-09	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	Supervised Fine-tuning with Synthetic Rationale Data Hurts Real-World Disease Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.61	Automated Pronunciation Evaluation for Korean Toddler Speech using Speech Diarization and Self-Supervised Learning	arxiv 2026-06-08	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Pareto-Guided Teacher Alignment for Fair Personalized Text Generation	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.61	MetaPlate: Counterfactual-Guided RAG-LLM Tool for Personalized Food Recommendation and Hyperglycemia Prevention	arxiv 2026-06-08	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.61	Multimodal Brain Tumour Classification Using Feature Fusion	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Exploring the Design Space of Reward Backpropagation for Flow Matching	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	MODIP: Efficient Model-Based Optimization for Diffusion Policies	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Can we trust our models? Epistemic calibration in second-order classification	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Pre-AF 13: An Interpretable Atrial Fibrillation Risk Score Mined from Discharge Reports	arxiv 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Near-Exponential Convergence Rates for kNN Classification based on Boltzmann Margin	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.61	Ambiguous Strategic Classification	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	CodeAlchemy: Synthetic Code Rewriting at Scale	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. Jensen Huang	AI/Manufacturing	75%
0.61	Structured Adaptive Tensor Prediction for Streaming Data	arxiv 2026-06-08	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	It Takes One to Bias Them All: Breaking Bad with One-Shot GRPO	arxiv 2026-06-09	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.61	Are We Evaluating Knowledge or Phrasing? Mitigating MCQA Sensitivity with ParaEval	arxiv 2026-06-09	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Speaker Group Encoding in Self-supervised Speech Recognition Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	ParaBridge: Bridging Paralinguistic Perception and Dialogue Behavior in Speech Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	Vehicle Prediction Model for Enhanced MPC Path Tracking in Formula Student Driverless	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_020 The 'Factory-is-the-Product' model will dominate venture-backed manufacturing — the manufacturing process itself becomes a continuous AI-optimized technological product, not merely a site of assembly. a16z predicts AI's 'insatiable need for power' requ... Marc Andreessen	Macro/Economy	43%
0.61	Rethinking Embodied Navigation via Relational Inductive Bias	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	FDA ANDA214470: HALOPERIDOL (HALOPERIDOL) — ALEMBIC	fda 2026-06-04	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	huggingface/transformers v5.11.0	github_release 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	facebookresearch/fastText v0.2.0	github_release 2018-12-19	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.61	Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?(market prob: 92%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12?(market prob: 73%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	System Report for CCL25-Eval Task 5: New Dataset and LoRA-Fine-Tuned Qwen2.5	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Using Explainability as a Training-Time Reliability Signal for Efficient ECG Classification	arxiv 2026-06-10	AI_016 The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an AI experience curve enables bulk problem-solving across engineering, medicine, and mathematics at a fraction of historical compute costs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	82%
0.61	Using Explainability as a Training-Time Reliability Signal for Efficient ECG Classification	arxiv 2026-06-10	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.61	OpenMedReason: Scientific Reasoning Supervision for Medical Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	nD-RoPE: A Generalized RoPE for n-Dimensional Position Embedding	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Task-Aware Structured Memory for Dynamic Multi-modal In-Context Learning	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	What Limits Does Quantization Place on Dense Top-$k$ Retrieval? A Theoretical Study	arxiv 2026-06-10	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Ouroboros-Spatial: Closing the Data-Model Loop for Spatial Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	ConsistencyPlanner: Real-time Planning with Fast-Sampling Consistency Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	FreeBridge: Variational Schrödinger Bridges for Cellular Transition Dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Corpus Augmentation for Sign Language Translation via LLM-Guided Video Stitching	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	REACH: Interpretability-Driven Feature Identification and Architecture Compression for Multi-Channel Vehicular Channel Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.61	Higher-Order Token Interactions via Quantum Attention	arxiv 2026-06-10	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.61	Multimodal Brain Tumour Classification Using Feature Fusion	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Multi-Agent Reasoning with Adaptive Worker Allocation for Stance Detection	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Pre-AF 13: An Interpretable Atrial Fibrillation Risk Score Mined from Discharge Reports	arxiv 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	The Fundaments of Unity: ${\mathcal O}(1)$ Couplings in Quantum Field Theories	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.61	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.20.0	github_release 2026-05-11	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.15.0	github_release 2026-02-25	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.61	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.9.0	github_release 2025-10-09	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.61	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.4.0	github_release 2025-08-26	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.61	Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.61	Will Jake Knapp win the 2026 TOUR Championship?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.61	Towards More General Control of Diffusion Models Using Jeffrey Guidance	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Adjusted Cup-Product Neural Layer	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.61	Detecting Explanatory Insufficiency in Learned Representations: A Framework for Representational Vigilance	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Forecasting Is Not Attribution: Localizing Decoder Bypass in Graph-Based Neural Marketing Mix Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.61	Rubric-Guided Self-Distillation: Post-Training Without Rubric Verifiers	arxiv 2026-06-10	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	From Passive Generation to Investigation: A Proactive Scientific Peer Review Agent	arxiv 2026-06-11	AI_037 EU AI Act compliance will become a first-class enterprise priority — Anthropic among first frontier labs positioning proactive regulatory governance as a competitive differentiator against hyperscaler peers. Daniella Amodei	Geopolitics	60%
0.61	From Passive Generation to Investigation: A Proactive Scientific Peer Review Agent	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.61	LEDGER: A Long-Context Benchmark of Corporate Annual Reports for Grounded Financial Retrieval and Extraction	arxiv 2026-06-11	242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.61	SafeLLM: Extraction as a Hallucination-Resistant Alternative to Rewriting in Safety-Critical Settings	arxiv 2026-06-11	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	WT-UMI: Tactile-based Whole-Body Manipulation via Force-Supervised Contact-Aware Planning	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	EmbodiSteer: Steering Embodiment-Agnostic Visuomotor Policies with Joint-Space Guidance for Zero-Shot Cross-Embodiment Deployment	arxiv 2026-06-11	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.61	Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 40%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.61	Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will Anthropic remove the data retention rule on Fable 5 before July?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-06-13	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will Wales become a US state before 2045?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-06-13	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.61	Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-06-14	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.2.5	github_release 2020-08-28	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.61	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.2.0	github_release 2020-04-27	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.61	Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?(market prob: 72%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.61	Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Argentina leading at halftime?(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	I woke up to find 500 unique traders in my markets today. Will I reach 900 by 7/17/26?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-06-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Automated jailbreak attack targeting multiple defense strategies	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.61	Input-Dependent Fisher Information for Local Sensitivity Analysis of Medical Image Classifiers	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Exploiting Search in Symbolic Numeric Planning with Patterns	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.61	Learning the Geometry of Data: A Mathematical Review of Shape Space Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.61	Scalable Pairwise Kernel Learning with Stochastic Vec Trick	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Learning Hybrid Biophysical Neuron Models with Neural ODEs	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Learning Hybrid Biophysical Neuron Models with Neural ODEs	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Context-Aware Markov VAE for CSI Compression in Wireless Systems	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	One-Step Generalization Ratio Guided Optimization for Domain Generalization	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Circuit Tracing in Autoregressive Protein Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-14	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Inference-Time Decision Calibration for Temporal Classification	arxiv 2026-06-14	234_003 Within 1-2 years we will look back and wonder why training was centralized while inference was decentralized Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.61	Causal-Privacy Audit Workflow for Synthetic and Distilled Data in Dropout Support	arxiv 2026-06-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Context-Aware RL for Agentic and Multimodal LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Surpassing Scale by Efficiency: A Compact 135M Parameter Foundational LLM Natively Adapted for the Bangla Language	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	From Argument Components to Graphs: A Multi-Agent Debate with Confidence Gating for Argument Relations	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Who Flips? Self- and Cross-Model Counterarguments Reveal Answer Instability in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-14	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.61	FinBalance: A Multi-Document Accounting Reconciliation Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-14	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	When Correct Edges Cannot Be Verified: A Provenance Gap in Incomplete KGQA and a Provenance-Favoring Completion Policy	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Vernier: Probing Representational Misalignment Behind Lexical Gaps in Causal Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-14	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.61	ExoTraj: A General Lower-limb Exoskeleton Assistance Policy for Complex Environments	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	Automated Digital Twin Construction for Highway Scenarios Using LiDAR Point Clouds and OpenStreetMap	arxiv 2026-06-15	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.61	Distributed Safe Consensus Under Asymmetric Input and Time-Varying Output Constraints	arxiv 2026-06-15	FUT_021 Uncontrolled recursive self-improvement by AGI requires vast uninterrupted physical infrastructure, flawless power grids, perfect global supply chains for advanced semiconductors. In Zeihan-Bremmer world (severe demographic labor shortages, fragmented ... Superforecaster Community	AI	46%
0.61	GeoTLM: Geometry-aware Tactile-Language Models for Contact Motion Orientation Reasoning of Dynamic Objects	arxiv 2026-06-14	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Will Andrew Novak win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.61	Will I manage to get a question included in Tom Scott's Lateral podcast in 2026?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-06-16	SEM_037 For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, faster, and cheaper by next year (2026-2027). Emad Mostaque	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.61	IUU+DB: Tracking Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated Fishing, Seafood Fraud, and Labor Abuse through LLM-driven Information Extraction	arxiv 2026-06-16	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	STAR: SpatioTemporal Adaptive Reward Allocation for Text-to-Image RL Post-Training	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	SoftMoE: Soft Differentiable Routing for Mixture-of-Experts in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.61	WallZero: Mastering the Game of WallGo with Strategic Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-16	237_022 Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years. Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.61	High-Fidelity 3D Geometric Reconstruction of Pelvic Organs from MRI: A Hybrid Deep Learning and Iterative Optimization Approach	arxiv 2026-06-16	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.61	DecoSearch: Complexity-Aware Routing and Plan-Level Repair for Text-to-SQL	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	A Neuromorphic Trigger for Efficient Audio Event Detection	arxiv 2026-06-16	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.61	MODE-RAG: Manifold Outlier Diagnosis and Energy-based Retrieval-Augmented Generation Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-16	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.61	Spatio-Temporal Fusion Model for Standard View Classification of Echocardiographic Videos	arxiv 2026-06-16	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.61	Enhancing Pathological VLMs with Cross-scale Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Multi-Source Cybersecurity Logs: An ATT&CK-Labeled Dataset and SLM Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-16	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Predictive Analytics in E-Commerce for CustomerBehavior Forecasting using hybrid Ret-DNN withXGBoost Model	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.61	Physics-Constrained Neural Networks for Improved Short-Term Weather Forecasting: A Case Study over the South Pacific	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Reducing Learner Redundancy in Boosting via Residual Orthogonalization	arxiv 2026-06-16	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	SpatioTemporal Causal Network Diagnostics for Geographic Tipping Point Early Warning	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.61	Non-negative Matrix Factorisation with Topological Regularisation	arxiv 2026-06-16	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.61	Public transit gains and spatially uneven travel demand changes after NYC congestion pricing	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.61	A Bayesian Boolean Matrix Factorization with Application to Copy Number Analysis in Cancer	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Amortized Probabilistic Retrieval of Atmospheric CO2 from OCO-2 Spectra Using Deep Learning with Laplace Approximations and Normalizing Flows	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	MM++: Unsupervised Scale-Invariant Multilayer OOD Detection via Top-K Gated Feature Fusion	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Rethinking Groups in Critic-Free RLVR	arxiv 2026-06-15	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	Evaluating Second-Order Bias of LLMs Through Epistemic Entitlement	arxiv 2026-06-16	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	PARSE: Provenance-Aware Retrieval Sanitization for Professional Domain LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-16	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	RepSelect: Robust LLM Unlearning via Representation Selectivity	arxiv 2026-06-15	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.61	FLAP: FOV-Constrained Active Perception Planning for Prior-Map-Free 3D Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Induced Resource Theories and Harvesting via Quantum Probes	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-02	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.61	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2025-11-25	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.61	Will anyone other than me make mana on this market?(market prob: 96%)	manifold 2026-06-18	230_037 Handmade/human art will be astronomically more valuable in the future. Dave Blundin	Consumer	50%
0.61	Trade-offs in Medical LLM Adaptation: An Empirical Study in French QA	arxiv 2026-06-17	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	Hardware- and Vision-in-the-Loop Validation of Deep Monocular Pose Estimation for Autonomous Maritime UAV Flight	arxiv 2026-06-17	242_059 Self-flying eVTOLs will be the norm given AI safety advantages Dave Blundin	Auto/Transport	45%
0.61	As Easy as Rocket Science: Assessing the Ability of Large Language Models to Interpret Negation in Figurative Language	arxiv 2026-06-17	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.61	Rescaling MLM-Head for Neural Sparse Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-17	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	RedactionBench	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.61	EffiNav: Fusing Depth and Vision-Language for Efficient Object Goal Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-17	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.61	Correcting Sensor-Induced Distribution Drift with Wasserstein Adversarial Learning	arxiv 2026-06-17	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	The Chandra-Gaia Catalog of Counterparts: Resolving ambiguous Gaia matches to X-ray sources in the Chandra Source Catalog using Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	When AUC Misleads: Polarization-Aware Evaluation of Deepfake Detectors under Domain Shift	arxiv 2026-06-17	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Ensuring Trustworthy Online A/B Testing: Addressing Five Key Questions on CUPED	arxiv 2026-06-17	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	Low-Cost Neuromorphic Fall Detection Using Synthetic Event Data and Hybrid SNNs	arxiv 2026-06-17	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.61	Attention as Frustrated Synchronization	arxiv 2026-06-17	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	BLADE: Scalable Bi-level Adaptive Data Selection for LLM Training	arxiv 2026-06-17	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.61	Toward Simultaneously Optimal Regret in U-Calibration	arxiv 2026-06-16	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.61	Concept Modulation Models: A Unified Framework for Identifiability and Extrapolation	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	ScholarSum: Student-Teacher Abstractive Summarization via Knowledge Graph Reasoning and Reflective Refinement	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.61	Modeling Branches for Active Manipulation using Iterative Parameter Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	GCNGrasp-VP: Affordance-Guided View Planning for Efficient Task-Oriented Grasping	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Congestion-Aware Robot Tour Planning in Crowded Environments	arxiv 2026-06-17	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.61	Spatially Stratified Distillation for Heterogeneous Radar Place Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-17	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	High-Degree-of-Freedom Lightweight Bioinspired Leg for Enhanced Mobility in Small Robots	arxiv 2026-06-17	229_045 Figure will not differentiate by vertical form factor—general-purpose humanoid is the bet. Brett Adcock	Robotics	28%
0.61	FDA ANDA219287: GADOBUTROL (GADOBUTROL) — VIWIT PHARM	fda 2026-06-11	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will Kurt Kitayama win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Spread: Türkiye (-1.5)(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?(market prob: 27%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.61	What Do Safety-Aligned LLMs Learn From Mixed Compliance Demonstrations?	arxiv 2026-06-18	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Navigating Unreliable Parametric and Contextual Knowledge: Explicit Knowledge Conflict Resolution for LLM Inference	arxiv 2026-06-18	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.61	FlowMaps: Modeling Long-Term Multimodal Object Dynamics with Flow Matching	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Evaluating and Enhancing Negation Comprehension in Remote Sensing MLLMs	arxiv 2026-06-18	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.61	CombEval: A Framework for Evaluating Combinatorial Counting in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	QueryGaussian: Scalable and Training-Free Open-Vocabulary 3D Instance Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	REVEAL++: Differentiable Phenotypic Grouping for Vision-Language Retinal Modeling of Alzheimer's Disease Risk	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Concept Flow Models: Anchoring Concept-Based Reasoning with Hierarchical Bottlenecks	arxiv 2026-06-17	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Train, Retrieve, or Both? A Four-Arm Head-to-Head for Correct Statutory Citation on the Ontario Residential Tenancies Act	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_025 The legal profession must transition from viewing AI as a 'prompter' to an active 'partner' — when an autonomous AI consultant hallucinates legal precedent or medical diagnosis, traditional corporate malpractice frameworks fail; courts must rapidly est... Ralph Losey	Other	77%
0.61	Pose6DAug: Physically Plausible Multi-view Object Swapping for Robot Data Augmentation	arxiv 2026-06-18	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.61	Online Dynamic Batching with Formal Guarantees for LLM Training	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_059 Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds. Alex Finn	AI	62%
0.61	A Differentiable Composite Approximation Framework for Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Maneuvering Modeling from Sea-Trial Data	arxiv 2026-06-18	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	Convex training of Lipschitz-regularized shallow neural networks	arxiv 2026-06-17	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Comparing Linear Probes with Mahalanobis Cosine Similarity	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.61	Segment-Level Mandarin Chinese Speech-Based Cognitive Impairment Detection via an Autoencoder with Contrastive Learning	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Gender Bias in LLM Hiring Decisions: Evidence from a Japanese Context and Evaluation of Mitigation Strategies	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Gender Bias in LLM Hiring Decisions: Evidence from a Japanese Context and Evaluation of Mitigation Strategies	arxiv 2026-06-17	FUT_004 Rapid ascension and enterprise dominance of Large Action Models (LAMs) by 2026-2031 — LLM as primary digital interface becomes obsolete; LAMs observe complex behavioral patterns, internalize multi-step business processes, predict physical-robot mainten... Amy Webb	AI	62%
0.61	Slow Brain, Fast Planner: Latency-Resilient VLM-Augmented Urban Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	DiffusionVS: A Generative Framework for Robust Visual Servoing Based on Diffusion Policy	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	On the Renormalization Group Flow of Active Flocks	arxiv 2026-06-18	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.61	Universal Properties of Nonlinearly Perturbed Maxwell Theory	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.61	Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-02	236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	53%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.61	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.61	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-03-24	SEM_044 Blue Origin will land cargo at Shackleton Crater before SpaceX — validating lunar economy and resource extraction as immediate commercial priority. Peter Diamandis	Space	32%
0.61	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-02	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.61	Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.61	Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.61	Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.61	Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 1?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.61	Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	Best April 29 Earnings?	manifold 2026-04-29	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.61	Will "Protecting Cognitive Integrity: Our internal ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-04-26	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.61	Anthropic Removes Claude Code From Every Plan Except Max in 2026(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-04-23	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will Build a Bear outperform the SP500 for the year of 2027?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-04-23	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	235_014 Sam Altman predicted 40x year-over-year hyperdeflation of AI costs at constant capability. Sam Altman	AI	51%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_008 Rapid agentic automation of white-collar work could precipitate an employment crisis requiring entirely new tax structures to manage displacement. Dario Amodei	Labor/Jobs	41%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail	Labor/Jobs	37%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.61	article 48a69cbd aa05 5138 b47a b170ddd93981.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.61	ki infrastruktur treibt speicherpreise auf rekordhoehen 899723	gdelt 2026-04-30	231_031 OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	58%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	45%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	247_004 Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit conversions Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.61	the era of the pilot is over the era of the agent is here google cloud wants you to unlock the power of your data	gdelt 2026-04-30	AI_014 A new 'Agent-Native Infrastructure' category emerges — legacy digital infrastructure was built for human-speed traffic; the new internet must handle agent-speed workloads (recursive, bursty, massive). The 'screen time' KPI dies: future software will be... Marc Andreessen	AI	65%
0.61	1256561.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_051 Humanoid robots total addressable market by 2040: lower bound 1 billion units (exceeding cars on Earth); upper bound 10+ billion units. Brett Adcock / Elon Musk / Vinod Khosla	Robotics	37%
0.61	why investors didnt give meta a pass on increased spending despite a great quarter.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	Will US average gas price reach $4.690 in May 2026?(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-04-30	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	35%
0.61	EXELON CORP (EXC) (CIK 0001109357)	edgar_8k 2026-04-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.61	Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.61	Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $100 on May 11, 2026?(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-05-01	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.61	Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $100 on May 11, 2026?(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-05-01	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.61	Will Android 17 be officially released to consumers by October 31, 2026?(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-05-01	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.61	Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.61	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?(market prob: 80%)	polymarket 2025-11-04	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 845(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-02	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	US Average Gas Price on May 3 2026?	manifold 2026-05-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?(market prob: 81%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	53%
0.61	Will Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-05-04	CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei	AI	41%
0.61	Will Alcoa Corporation's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-05-04	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.61	Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.61	Bitcoin $85K in May?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-05-05	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.61	FDA NDA022063: MYDAYIS (AMPHETAMINE ASPARTATE) — TAKEDA PHARMS USA	fda 2026-04-23	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	FDA ANDA220313: GLYCEROL PHENYLBUTYRATE (GLYCEROL PHENYLBUTYRATE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA	fda 2026-04-15	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	openai/openai-python v2.22.0	github_release 2026-02-23	232_012 US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. Ben Horowitz	Geopolitics	44%
0.61	openai/openai-python v2.21.0	github_release 2026-02-14	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	openai/openai-python v2.21.0	github_release 2026-02-14	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.61	openai/openai-python v2.7.1	github_release 2025-11-04	238_025 AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level Emad Mostaque	AI	45%
0.61	huggingface/transformers v5.5.4	github_release 2026-04-13	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.61	huggingface/transformers v5.5.3	github_release 2026-04-09	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.61	huggingface/transformers v4.57.4	github_release 2026-01-13	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.61	huggingface/transformers v4.57.2	github_release 2025-11-24	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	huggingface/transformers v4.56.1	github_release 2025-09-04	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.61	huggingface/transformers v4.56.1	github_release 2025-09-04	COD_BIO_005 Colossal adds at least one more de-extinction species to active embryo-transfer pipeline by end 2028 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.20.0-rc0	github_release 2025-07-28	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.61	pytorch/pytorch v2.2.1	github_release 2024-02-22	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.61	Stage Light is Sequence$^2$: Multi-Light Control via Imitation Learning	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	HeadQ: Model-Visible Distortion and Score-Space Correction for KV-Cache Quantization	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.61	Real-Time Evaluation of Autonomous Systems under Adversarial Attacks	arxiv 2026-05-05	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.61	Adaptive Dual-Path Framework for Covert Semantic Communication	arxiv 2026-05-05	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.61	The Manokhin Probability Matrix: A Diagnostic Framework for Classifier Probability Quality	arxiv 2026-05-05	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Vanishing L2 regularization for the softmax Multi Armed Bandit	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	PODiff: Latent Diffusion in Proper Orthogonal Decomposition Space for Scientific Super-Resolution	arxiv 2026-05-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Provable Accuracy Collapse in Embedding-Based Representations under Dimensionality Mismatch	arxiv 2026-05-05	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	Text-Conditional JEPA for Learning Semantically Rich Visual Representations	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Spectral Model eXplainer: a chemically-grounded explainability framework for spectral-based machine learning models	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.61	Gradient-Discrepancy Acquisition for Pool-Based Active Learning	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Efficient Preference Poisoning Attack on Offline RLHF	arxiv 2026-05-04	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	EQUITRIAGE: A Fairness Audit of Gender Bias in LLM-Based Emergency Department Triage	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.61	Annotation Quality in Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis: A Case Study Comparing Experts, Students, Crowdworkers, and Large Language Model	arxiv 2026-05-05	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Rational Communication Shapes Morphological Composition	arxiv 2026-05-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Rational Communication Shapes Morphological Composition	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Benchmarking Logistic Regression, SVM, Naive Bayes, and IndoBERT Fine-Tuning for Sentiment Analysis on Indonesian Product Reviews	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.61	The TTS-STT Flywheel: Synthetic Entity-Dense Audio Closes the Indic ASR Gap Where Commercial and Open-Source Systems Fail	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.61	Robust Path Tracking for Vehicles via Continuous-Time Residual Learning: An ICODE-MPPI Approach	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Adaptive Gait Generation for Multi-Terrain Exoskeletons via Constrained Kernelized Movement Primitives	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	Strong Locality as a Tetrahedron: A Symmetry-Reduced Geometric Representation of the (3,3,2,2) Bell Scenario	arxiv 2026-05-04	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	FDA ANDA211489: DAPAGLIFLOZIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (DAPAGLIFLOZIN, METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA	fda 2026-04-06	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	FDA ANDA074712: LACTULOSE (LACTULOSE) — CUMBERLAND PHARMS	fda 2026-04-14	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	FDA BLA761055: DUPIXENT (DUPILUMAB) — REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS	fda 2026-04-22	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	facebookresearch/neuroai v0.1.1	github_release 2026-05-05	239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk	AI	47%
0.61	Spread: Thunder (-15.5)(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will anyone trick me into sending them exactly M$1000 via managram? [Convince the Machine #10](market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-05-06	242_042 Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	Implicit Representations of Grammaticality in Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-06	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.61	When Relations Break: Analyzing Relation Hallucination in Vision-Language Model Under Rotation and Noise	arxiv 2026-05-06	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Misaligned by Reward: Socially Undesirable Preferences in LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-06	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Adapting Large Language Models to a Low-Resource Agglutinative Language: A Comparative Study of LoRA and QLoRA for Bashkir	arxiv 2026-05-06	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.61	Benchmarking POS Tagging for the Tajik Language: A Comparative Study of Neural Architectures on the TajPersParallel Corpus	arxiv 2026-05-06	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Open-Source Image Editing Models Are Zero-Shot Vision Learners	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	RaguTeam at SemEval-2026 Task 8: Meno and Friends in a Judge-Orchestrated LLM Ensemble for Faithful Multi-Turn Response Generation	arxiv 2026-05-06	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.61	RaguTeam at SemEval-2026 Task 8: Meno and Friends in a Judge-Orchestrated LLM Ensemble for Faithful Multi-Turn Response Generation	arxiv 2026-05-06	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	RaguTeam at SemEval-2026 Task 8: Meno and Friends in a Judge-Orchestrated LLM Ensemble for Faithful Multi-Turn Response Generation	arxiv 2026-05-06	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.61	Distilling Bayesian Belief States into Language Models for Auditable Negotiation	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	FDA ANDA218872: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — ACCORD HLTHCARE	fda 2026-04-27	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	facebookresearch/faiss v1.14.1	github_release 2026-03-06	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.61	facebookresearch/faiss v1.13.1	github_release 2025-12-03	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.61	facebookresearch/faiss v1.10.0	github_release 2025-01-31	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.61	facebookresearch/faiss v1.4.0	github_release 2018-08-31	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.61	facebookresearch/ProgramBench v1.0.1	github_release 2026-05-07	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.61	facebookresearch/balance 0.20.0	github_release 2026-04-26	230_045 GDP will be replaced by an 'Abundance Capability Index' measuring capacity to solve problems. Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	39%
0.61	facebookresearch/balance 0.19.0	github_release 2026-04-06	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.61	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.28.post3	github_release 2024-10-30	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.61	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.28	github_release 2024-09-12	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.61	In which 2026 month will Firefox hit Peak Cyber?	manifold 2026-05-08	SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk	AI/AGI	19%
0.61	Will any major USD stablecoin (USDT/USDC/PYUSD) face a federal regulatory enforcement action by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-08	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.61	Who will win Startup World Cup Silicon Valley Regional 2026?	manifold 2026-05-08	229_012 Every major tech company in the world will enter the humanoid robotics space. Brett Adcock	Robotics	38%
0.61	Are We Making Progress in Multimodal Domain Generalization? A Comprehensive Benchmark Study	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Are We Making Progress in Multimodal Domain Generalization? A Comprehensive Benchmark Study	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Concept-Based Abductive and Contrastive Explanations for Behaviors of Vision Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Patch-Effect Graph Kernels for LLM Interpretability	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Linear Semantic Segmentation for Low-Resource Spoken Dialects	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Soft Deterministic Policy Gradient with Gaussian Smoothing	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Soft Deterministic Policy Gradient with Gaussian Smoothing	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Towards Annotation-Free Validation of MLLMs: A Vision-Language Logical Consistency Metric	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.61	Systematic Evaluation of Large Language Models for Post-Discharge Clinical Action Extraction	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	In-Context Black-Box Optimization with Unreliable Feedback	arxiv 2026-05-07	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.61	BehaviorGuard: Online Backdoor Defense for Deep Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil	AI	30%
0.61	ICU-Bench:Benchmarking Continual Unlearning in Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.61	On the Safety of Graph Representation Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.61	SMolLM: Small Language Models Learn Small Molecular Grammar	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	End-to-End Identifiable and Consistent Recurrent Switching Dynamical Systems	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	INEUS: Iterative Neural Solver for High-Dimensional PIDEs	arxiv 2026-05-07	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	Algospeak, Hiding in the Open: The Trade-off Between Legible Meaning and Detection Avoidance	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.61	Who and What? Using Linguistic Features and Annotator Characteristics to Analyze Annotation Variation	arxiv 2026-05-07	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	MemReranker: Reasoning-Aware Reranking for Agent Memory Retrieval	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	Negative Before Positive: Asymmetric Valence Processing in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	232_002 Way more positive change coming from AI than negative change, at much more rapid rate. Ben Horowitz	AI	42%
0.61	The Cost of Context: Mitigating Textual Bias in Multimodal Retrieval-Augmented Generation	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	A Comparative Study of INDI and NDI with Nonlinear Disturbance Observer for Aerial Robotics	arxiv 2026-05-07	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.61	Leveraging Image Generators to Address Training Data Scarcity: The Gen4Regen Dataset for Forest Regeneration Mapping	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Koopman Identification of Nonlinear Systems via Reservoir Liftings	arxiv 2026-05-06	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Gaze4HRI: Zero-shot Benchmarking Gaze Estimation Neural-Networks for Human-Robot Interaction	arxiv 2026-05-06	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.61	3D Printing of Passively Actuated Self-Folding Robots with Integrated Functional Modules	arxiv 2026-05-06	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.61	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.61	Will this self-referential market reach 50 unique traders before June 1, 2026?(market prob: 23%)	manifold 2026-05-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will any top-20 US or Canadian brokerage publicly endorse an open investing-agent standard by the end of 2027?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-11	SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. Kevin Weil	AI/Agents	74%
0.61	FDA ANDA211132: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — INGENUS PHARMS LLC	fda 2026-05-05	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	facebookresearch/spdl v0.0.14	github_release 2025-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	facebookresearch/spdl v0.0.8	github_release 2025-02-28	229_047 Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planned. Brett Adcock	AI	77%
0.61	Will I be promoted to Mana Gold by 12 am May 31, 2026?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-05-12	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	C3.ai, Inc. (AI) (CIK 0001577526)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	232_012 US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. Ben Horowitz	Geopolitics	44%
0.61	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.61	Oil Price (WTI) today?	manifold 2026-05-13	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.61	Hypernetworks for Dynamic Feature Selection	arxiv 2026-05-12	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%