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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.58	Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.58	Will "Considerations around career costs of politic..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-27	FUT_016 Next 5 years (2026-2030) require individuals + organizations to adopt 'FLUX' superpowers — ability to transform constant uncertainty into strategic advantage. Traditional linear career paths dissolve entirely by 2030, replaced by fluid portfolio-based ... April Rinne	Labor/Jobs	39%
0.58	REGAL REXNORD CORP (RRX) (CIK 0000082811)	edgar_8k 2026-04-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	EXELON CORP (EXC) (CIK 0001109357)	edgar_8k 2026-04-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.58	Spread: Rockets (-3.5)(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.58	Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Cadillac Championship?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.58	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	36%
0.58	Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.58	Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-16	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.58	Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Raptors vs. Cavaliers(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.58	Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.58	The Day: Naoya Inoue vs. Junto Nakatani(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-02?(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-04-05	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.58	Will the US complete withdrawal of 5,000+ troops from Germany by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-02	AUT_007 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll... Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	13%
0.58	Will Brent Crude Oil close above $115 on May 8th, 2026?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-02	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.58	Will Claude Sonnet 4.8 be released before May 24?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-05-02	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.58	Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2025-07-16	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?(market prob: 81%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.58	Which college will get 3rd place on the 2025 Putnam exam?	manifold 2026-05-03	SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	56%
0.58	Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs Shifters (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.58	Will Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.0 million tonnes?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-05-04	CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley	Macro/Economy	61%
0.58	Will Alcoa Corporation's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-05-04	AUT_007 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll... Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	13%
0.58	Will Intel trade below $94 in May?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-04	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.58	Will I have a market with more than 21 traders in May?(market prob: 85%)	manifold 2026-05-04	243_032 Uber business growing at >20% and audience growing at ~20% Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	48%
0.58	On what days will I be productive this week?	manifold 2026-05-03	234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	24%
0.58	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 77%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-21	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	35%
0.58	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	62%
0.58	Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?(market prob: 81%)	manifold 2026-05-05	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.58	D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) (CIK 0001907982)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.58	DAVITA INC. (DVA) (CIK 0000927066)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Twist Bioscience Corp (TWST) (CIK 0001581280)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.58	D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) (CIK 0001907982)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.58	FDA ANDA219865: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — HETERO LABS LTD VI	fda 2026-04-30	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.58	FDA ANDA219257: ANDA219257 ((unspecified)) — RENATA LIMITED	fda 2026-04-08	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.58	FDA ANDA210671: MULTIPLE VITAMINS INJECTION PEDIATRIC (ASCORBIC ACID) — APOTEX	fda 2026-04-21	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.58	FDA NDA206709: DIACOMIT (STIRIPENTOL) — BIOCODEX SA	fda 2026-04-15	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.58	FDA NDA219293: DANZITEN (NILOTINIB TARTRATE) — AZURITY	fda 2026-04-14	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.58	FDA ANDA213165: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — CIPLA	fda 2026-04-27	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.58	FDA NDA018900: METRO I.V. IN PLASTIC CONTAINER (METRONIDAZOLE) — B BRAUN	fda 2026-04-23	245_009 Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	45%
0.58	meta-llama/llama-models v0.2.0	github_release 2025-04-05	235_010 Plugins/marketplaces will get built into baseline models and won't need to exist independently. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.58	pytorch/pytorch v1.13.1	github_release 2022-12-16	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.58	1x-technologies/halodi-controller-simulation-api 0.1.11	github_release 2021-04-28	237_022 Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years. Alex Finn	AI	33%
0.58	1x-technologies/halodi-controller-simulation-api 0.1.11	github_release 2021-04-28	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.58	1x-technologies/halodi-controller-simulation-api 0.1.11	github_release 2021-04-28	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.58	76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.58	76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Division One (BO5) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Playoffs(market prob: 65%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.58	Counter-Strike: Isurus vs R2 Esports Club - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Who will send the most mana to @traders	manifold 2026-05-06	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.58	Flow Sampling: Learning to Sample from Unnormalized Densities via Denoising Conditional Processes	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.58	BFORE: Butterfly-Firefly Optimized Retinex Enhancement for Low-Light Image Quality Improvement	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.58	BFORE: Butterfly-Firefly Optimized Retinex Enhancement for Low-Light Image Quality Improvement	arxiv 2026-05-05	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.58	Copula-Based Endogeneity Correction for Doubly Robust Estimation of Treatment Effect	arxiv 2026-05-05	FUT_007 Global economy accelerates into structural demographic depression 2026-2031 — Baby Boomer cohort transitions from high-velocity capital creators/consumers to capital-draining healthcare-dependent retirees; Gen X + Millennials lack numerical mass to rep... Peter Zeihan	Macro/Economy	41%
0.58	Conditional Diffusion Sampling	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Multimodal Learning on Low-Quality Data with Conformal Predictive Self-Calibration	arxiv 2026-05-05	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.58	Learning Discriminative Signed Distance Functions from Multi-scale Level-of-detail Features for 3D Anomaly Detection	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	A Universal Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space from Polynomial Alignment and IMQ Distance	arxiv 2026-05-05	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.58	Distributed Deep Variational Approach for Privacy-preserving Data Release	arxiv 2026-05-04	231_021 Privacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and micro drones gathering data. Peter Diamandis	Consumer	59%
0.58	Distributed Deep Variational Approach for Privacy-preserving Data Release	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_059 Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds. Alex Finn	AI	56%
0.58	PubMed-Ophtha: An open resource for training ophthalmology vision-language models on scientific literature	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.58	Automatic Reflection Level Classification in Hungarian Student Essays	arxiv 2026-05-04	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.58	AnchorD: Metric Grounding of Monocular Depth Using Factor Graphs	arxiv 2026-05-04	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.58	Robust Adaptive Predictive Control for Hook-Based Aerial Transportation Between Moving Platforms	arxiv 2026-05-04	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.58	Minimum lifetime of a black hole	arxiv 2026-05-05	231_036 Relativity Space still probably a year or two away from launch. Peter Diamandis	Space	51%
0.58	Squeezed-state radiation in shockwave scattering: QCD-Gravity double copy	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.58	Separability from Multipartite Measures	arxiv 2026-05-03	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.58	FDA ANDA205254: ZOLEDRONIC ACID (ZOLEDRONIC ACID) — MYLAN LABS LTD	fda 2026-04-15	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	FDA ANDA212212: BUDESONIDE AND FORMOTEROL FUMARATE DIHYDRATE (BUDESONIDE) — TEVA PHARMS USA INC	fda 2026-04-23	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.58	FDA BLA761451: SAPHNELO (ANIFROLIMAB-FNIA) — ASTRAZENECA AB	fda 2026-04-24	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.58	FDA NDA215833: PLUVICTO (LUTETIUM LU-177 VIPIVOTIDE TETRAXETAN) — NOVARTIS	fda 2026-04-07	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.58	FDA ANDA214216: EMTRICITABINE AND TENOFOVIR ALAFENAMIDE FUMARATE (EMTRICITABINE) — MACLEODS PHARMS LTD	fda 2026-04-07	248_030 FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.58	FDA ANDA214216: EMTRICITABINE AND TENOFOVIR ALAFENAMIDE FUMARATE (EMTRICITABINE) — MACLEODS PHARMS LTD	fda 2026-04-07	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.58	Spread: Thunder (-15.5)(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.58	Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-14	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	19%
0.58	Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	30%
0.58	Spread: Thunder (-14.5)(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Spread: Thunder (-14.5)(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.58	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock	Robotics	39%
0.58	Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-02-17	231_011 The country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war. Peter Diamandis	Geopolitics	55%
0.58	When will Romania movie distribuitors will confirm The Amazing Digital Circus?	manifold 2026-05-07	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.58	When will Romania movie distribuitors will confirm The Amazing Digital Circus?	manifold 2026-05-07	SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk	AI/AGI	19%
0.58	Will a vaccine against the Andes virus (hantavirus) be tested in humans before the end of 2027?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-05-07	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.58	Will a vaccine against the Andes virus (hantavirus) be tested in humans before the end of 2027?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-05-07	IND_009 Artificial Superintelligence arrives by roughly 2030 — shortly thereafter all human illnesses will be cured 'much sooner than we think'; mechanism: AI not just predicting protein structures but generating novel biological designs revolutionizing drug d... Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	19%
0.58	When will Windows Market Share fall below 50% on desktop?	manifold 2026-05-07	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.58	Altar of Champions winner? (Grubby's WC3 streamer invitational)	manifold 2026-05-07	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.58	Free Lottery (GRB 170817A)(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-05-07	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Gradients with Respect to Semantics Preserving Embeddings Tell the Uncertainty of Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-06	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.58	CAR: Query-Guided Confidence-Aware Reranking for Retrieval-Augmented Generation	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	DoGMaTiQ: Automated Generation of Question-and-Answer Nuggets for Report Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-06	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.58	GEM: Graph-Enhanced Mixture-of-Experts with ReAct Agents for Dialogue State Tracking	arxiv 2026-05-06	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.58	NoisyCausal: A Benchmark for Evaluating Causal Reasoning Under Structured Noise	arxiv 2026-05-05	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.58	NoisyCausal: A Benchmark for Evaluating Causal Reasoning Under Structured Noise	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.3.3	github_release 2025-01-27	AUT_021 Defining software movement of 2026: startups building autonomous platforms specifically designed to clean/structure/continuously validate multimodal data — unstructured corporate sludge (PDFs, logs, videos, emails) causes autonomous agentic workflows t... Marc Andreessen	AI	52%
0.58	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.3.3	github_release 2025-01-27	IND_005 Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~... Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	33%
0.58	facebookresearch/faiss v1.13.0	github_release 2025-11-12	S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026 Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026	robotaxi_deployment	40%
0.58	facebookresearch/faiss v1.13.0	github_release 2025-11-12	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.58	facebookresearch/faiss v1.7.3	github_release 2022-11-30	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	facebookresearch/balance 0.12.1	github_release 2025-11-03	230_045 GDP will be replaced by an 'Abundance Capability Index' measuring capacity to solve problems. Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	26%
0.58	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.29.post3	github_release 2025-02-10	229_047 Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planned. Brett Adcock	AI	77%
0.58	Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp or more at the June 17, 2026 FOMC meeting?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-05-08	S_RECESSION_2026 NBER recession declared 2026	macro_recession	20%
0.58	Proactive Instance Navigation with Comparative Judgment for Ambiguous User Queries	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.58	Event-Causal RAG: A Retrieval-Augmented Generation Framework for Long Video Reasoning in Complex Scenarios	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.58	IRC-Bench: Recognizing Entities from Contextual Cues in First-Person Reminiscences	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.58	Architecture-agnostic Lipschitz-constant Bayesian header and its application to resolve semantically proximal classification errors with vision transformers	arxiv 2026-05-07	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.58	Architecture-agnostic Lipschitz-constant Bayesian header and its application to resolve semantically proximal classification errors with vision transformers	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.58	MINER: Mining Multimodal Internal Representation for Efficient Retrieval	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Expressivity of Bi-Lipschitz Normalizing Flows: A Score-Based Diffusion Perspective	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.58	Parser agreement and disagreement in L2 Korean UD: Implications for human-in-the-loop annotation	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.58	Challenges to Understanding Celestial Holography from the Bottom Up	arxiv 2026-05-06	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	First next-to-next-to-leading-order extraction of fragmentation functions for Lambda hyperons	arxiv 2026-05-06	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Constraints on the inflationary vacuum and reheating era from NANOGrav	arxiv 2026-05-06	S_COMPUTE_10GW_2028 Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028	compute_scale	40%
0.58	Baby Universe in a Coupled SYK Model	arxiv 2026-05-06	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Hawking Temperature, Sparsity and Energy Emission Rate of Regular Black Holes Supported by Primordial Dark Matter	arxiv 2026-05-06	241_024 Heat dissipation and radiation issues in space data centers will be addressed Eric Schmidt	Space	54%
0.58	Singlet-doublet dark matter induced radiative neutrino mass and TeV scale leptogenesis	arxiv 2026-05-06	242_002 Long-term petawatt compute will come only from lunar mass drivers Peter Diamandis	Space	37%
0.58	Molien--Weyl Singlet Counting and BFSS$_2$--Factorization in Gaussian Matrix QM	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Hierarchical entanglement transitions and hidden area-law sectors in quantum many-body dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-06	235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross	Consumer	42%
0.58	Hierarchical entanglement transitions and hidden area-law sectors in quantum many-body dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-06	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	FDA ANDA217239: TORSEMIDE (TORSEMIDE) — MICRO LABS	fda 2026-05-01	248_030 FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.58	FDA ANDA090508: FINASTERIDE (FINASTERIDE) — SUN PHARM	fda 2026-04-30	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.58	Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-15	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.58	Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-03-18	230_016 Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	55%
0.58	Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-03-18	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	19%
0.58	UEFA Champions League: Unbeaten Champion(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-02-19	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.58	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-07-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner	Energy	57%
0.58	Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-14	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	19%
0.58	Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-14	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.58	Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	32%
0.58	Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Spread: Thunder (-10.5)(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.58	Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 16, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.58	Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.58	How long will Trump and Xi shake hands when they meet? [Polymarket]	manifold 2026-05-11	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	What will be the outcome of the EEOC suit against the NYT?	manifold 2026-05-11	247_004 Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit conversions Dave Blundin	AI	39%
0.58	Will SF Prop A, June 2026, pass?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-05-11	238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	78%
0.58	Will Luke Wang PEA Class of 2027 make at least 1 HYPSM(market prob: 92%)	manifold 2026-05-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Will the UK introduce proportional representation for general elections before 2030?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-05-11	247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	46%
0.58	Who will own the pinky of @draaglom at EOY 2026?	manifold 2026-05-11	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.58	On what days will I be productive this week?	manifold 2026-05-10	234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	24%
0.58	ALLIENT INC (ALNT) (CIK 0000046129)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	PLUG POWER INC (PLUG) (CIK 0001093691)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	CMQ_024 'Tokens per Watt' is the defining Key Performance Indicator (KPI) for the modern digital economy. Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	54%
0.58	facebookresearch/spdl v0.1.4	github_release 2025-09-10	IND_026 Non-coders and engineers alike must build for 'where the models are going, not where they are today' — 'this is the worst the models will ever be'. Next-generation models will 'eat your scaffolding for breakfast'; manual software configuration, standar... Kevin Weil	Labor/Jobs	61%
0.58	Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.58	Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	242_037 China will land on the moon before end of 2030 China (government)	Space	46%
0.58	Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 78%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Wild vs. Avalanche(market prob: 34%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will América FC vs. Vila Nova FC end in a draw?(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	How many minutes will CLASH (HS) be delayed by?	manifold 2026-05-12	248_040 Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	53%
0.58	D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) (CIK 0001907982)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.58	Nextpower Inc. (NXT) (CIK 0001852131)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	27%
0.58	FDA ANDA200217: LORAZEPAM (LORAZEPAM) — RISING	fda 2026-05-04	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.58	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.5.6	github_release 2024-12-05	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.58	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.5.6	github_release 2024-12-05	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.58	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.1.0	github_release 2023-08-07	AUT_021 Defining software movement of 2026: startups building autonomous platforms specifically designed to clean/structure/continuously validate multimodal data — unstructured corporate sludge (PDFs, logs, videos, emails) causes autonomous agentic workflows t... Marc Andreessen	AI	52%
0.58	Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will J.D. Vance attend Trump’s Xi summit?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.58	Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will The Gameoverse Pilot reach 25 million views by the end of June?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-12	242_058 Cybercab owners will generate revenue via autonomous ridesharing fleets Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	51%
0.58	D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) (CIK 0001907982)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.58	QDSB: Quantized Diffusion Schrödinger Bridges	arxiv 2026-05-12	231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.58	NOFE -- Neural Operator Function Embedding	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.58	Gradient Clipping Beyond Vector Norms: A Spectral Approach for Matrix-Valued Parameters	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.58	OverNaN: NaN-Aware Oversampling for Imbalanced Learning with Meaningful Missingness	arxiv 2026-05-12	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.58	FDA NDA020578: ZOLADEX (GOSERELIN ACETATE) — TERSERA	fda 2026-05-06	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	FDA NDA020515: ZOLADEX (GOSERELIN) — TERSERA	fda 2026-05-06	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	Will San Marino be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	LoL: GIANTX vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.58	Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs(market prob: 77%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	233_011 Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption. Joe Liemandt	Education	37%
0.58	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.58	Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	41%
0.58	MICROSOFT CORP (MSFT) (CIK 0000789019)	edgar_8k 2026-05-14	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.58	DisAgg: Distributed Aggregators for Efficient Secure Aggregation in Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.58	DisAgg: Distributed Aggregators for Efficient Secure Aggregation in Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Utility-Oriented Visual Evidence Selection for Multimodal Retrieval-Augmented Generation	arxiv 2026-05-13	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.58	ECG-NAT: A Self-supervised Neighborhood Attention Transformer for Multi-lead Electrocardiogram Classification	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.58	meta-llama/llama-api-python v0.1.2	github_release 2025-06-28	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.58	Valorant: Team Heretics vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Delhi Capitals win the 2026 Indian Premier League?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-24	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.58	LoL: Movistar KOI vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.58	Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.58	LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.58	Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Medvedev (+1.5)(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%