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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.64 | Bitcoin $82K in June?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.64 | Will the May 2026 US Core CPI be reported at 0.3% or higher (MoM)?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.64 | Will El Niño be declared before December 2026?(market prob: 87%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.64 | Will El Niño be declared before December 2026?(market prob: 87%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.64 | Will Blue Moon be launched on Falcon Heavy ?(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | ROB_023 SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026. Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 58% | |
| 0.64 | Will May 2026 U.S. personal income rise at least 0.4% month-over-month?(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 234_013 Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029 Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-29 | SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin | AI/China | 45% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 246_039 Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 49% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-30 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-01 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh?(market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_032 Residential electricity costs are a structural byproduct of DC buildout: Washington state household electricity costs rose 10.3% from 2024 to 2025 directly tied to infrastructure strain, with utility-proposed rate increases projecting residential price... Seattle Met / Washington State regulators | Macro/Economy | 54% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.64 | Will I qualify for the 2027 IMO TST cycle?(market prob: 70%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-11 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Elon Musk say the word “misanthropic” again before the end of 2027?(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei | AI | 41% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 229_014 Figure will be able to make millions of robots via BotQ and future BotQ expansion. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 35% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-13 | 235_027 Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 46% | ||
| 0.64 | Will code vulnerabilities (CVE records) more then double in 2026?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 237_001 Increased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become more and more prevalent. Peter Diamandis | AI | 55% | |
| 0.64 | Will Bitcoin trade above $90,000 between now and June 1, 2026?(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-16 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-18 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Bitcoin (Coinbase BTC-USD) close above $85,000 on June 1, 2026?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 246_029 Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 54% | ||
| 0.64 | Will The Democrats Win Every Presidential Election from 2028 to 2040?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-29 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.64 | Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $94 on June 10, 2026?(market prob: 64%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-26 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Bitcoin be below 71K at end of week?(market prob: 98%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.64 | Will Bernie's 50% AI tax pass?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 242_028 AI could automate 25% of US work hours Goldman Sachs | Labor/Jobs | 39% | |
| 0.64 | Silver price above 90.000 in June 2026(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.64 | Will May 2026 US nonfarm payrolls increase by at least 150,000?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.64 | Will the s&p500 close at 7,000.00 or less before 2028?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.64 | can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.64 | Will May 2026 U.S. personal income rise at least 0.4% month-over-month?(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | Will warfare robots kill multitudes in a city?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 229_041 Robots will bring abundance and a 'sci-fi future' where it will 'feel like 2080 up in here.' Brett Adcock | Other | 37% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-29 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.4% in 2026?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 236_007 US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | Will HackerNews #1 story score go up in 24h?(market prob: 52%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.64 | Will MISO Indiana Hub 2027 day-ahead annual average exceed US$55/MWh?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | Will OKLO reach $200 by the end of 2026?(market prob: 26%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 247_009 Anthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026 Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | |
| 0.64 | Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 12,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030?(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 235_033 Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 52% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | Will Solana trade above $100 by the end of May 2026?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-13 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.64 | Will there be a government shutdown before January 2027?(market prob: 48%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | Thinking Machines acquired by Apple before 2031?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-15 | IND_011 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... Jason Calacanis | Macro/Economy | 58% | |
| 0.64 | Will Apple's WWDC 2026 keynote include any verbal reference to OpenAI?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 230_046 OpenAI's Noam Brown has only ~3 months of future model access internally — dramatic capability gap with public. Dave Blundin | AI | 43% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-16 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | ||
| 0.64 | Ebola pandemic in 2026?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | 236_047 New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 55% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 236_022 Robots will build data centers in foreseeable time frame Andrew Yang | Robotics | 39% | ||
| 0.64 | Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 233_014 Over the next 12 years, half of kids will have neural links while others won't, creating divergence. Dave Blundin | Biotech/Longevity | 45% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-28 | CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-27 | CYB_028 The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... Mark Cuban | Markets/Stocks | 48% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-26 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | ||
| 0.64 | Will the OSN-K 2026 announcement be on time?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-29 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | ||
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | Will the share of Americans in the workforce drop below 61.5% in 2026?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 236_031 Wealth concentration will pick up as firms have fewer workers Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 51% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-02 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Bernie's 50% AI tax pass?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 234_042 AI displacement will collapse the payroll tax base funding Medicare/Social Security Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 47% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | Will May 2026 US nonfarm payrolls increase by at least 150,000?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.64 | Will the s&p500 close at 7,000.00 or less before 2028?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.64 | Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.64 | Will Qwen 3.6+ 122B A10B be open weights before July 2026?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-29 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-29 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 230_017 Self-driving will become the norm; manual driving will become uncool, then illegal (Smoking-ban analogy). Dave Blundin | Auto/Transport | 46% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk | AI | 44% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-25 | AUT_024 H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int... Morgan Stanley | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.64 | Will the US unemployment rate be >=6.4% in April 2028?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 247_020 Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustment Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 50% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 246_013 Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. Peter Diamandis | Space | 42% | ||
| 0.64 | Bitcoin $82K in May?(market prob: 96%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.64 | Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-01 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | ||
| 0.64 | Will MISO Indiana Hub 2027 day-ahead annual average exceed US$55/MWh?(market prob: 33%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_048 Global data-center energy demand will reach approximately 945 Terawatt-hours by 2030 — a roughly 175% increase from 2023 levels — requiring complete grid overhauls in major markets. IEA | Energy | 48% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-08 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 25,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030?(market prob: 72%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 50% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 242_020 Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K Elon Musk | Auto/Transport | 31% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Apple's WWDC 2026 keynote include any verbal reference to OpenAI?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-17 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 246_044 Two outcomes: AI-driven destruction by terrorist OR Earth as shining jewel for thousands of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-16 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Perplexity become profitable by EOY 2027?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 231_008 AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-27 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.64 | Will 1mon (Max) wear a dress in 2026(market prob: 71%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-24 | SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock | Robotics | 42% | ||
| 0.64 | Will NSSB get delayed by more than 30 minutes?(market prob: 97%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 231_002 Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 242_028 AI could automate 25% of US work hours Goldman Sachs | Labor/Jobs | 39% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Bernie's 50% AI tax pass?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | 242_032 AI will do the job for 2% of the cost of a human in the near term Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.64 | Will the May 2026 US Core CPI be reported at 0.3% or higher (MoM)?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.64 | Gold price above 5,100.00 in June 2026(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 234_014 We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 59% | |
| 0.64 | Will US CPI inflation (CPI-U, 12-month, June 2026) exceed 4.0%?(market prob: 73%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | |
| 0.64 | Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2027?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 236_007 US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.64 | Will May 2026 U.S. personal income rise at least 0.4% month-over-month?(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.64 | Will Qwen 3.6+ 122B A10B be open weights before July 2026?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.64 | Will the Bitcoin block height increase by 145+ blocks?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-29 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.64 | Will I deploy my business website by the end of April 2026?(market prob: 96%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | |
| 0.64 | Anthropic Removes Claude Code From Every Plan Except Max in 2026(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-30 | COD_SPC_001 Artemis III flies as an Earth-orbit HLS/EVA suit test mission in 2027, not a lunar landing Codex Research Pack | Space | 44% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-02 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | ||
| 0.64 | Will HackerNews #1 story score go up in 24h?(market prob: 52%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 248_012 AI incidents documented harms will go up way higher beyond the already-reported rise. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.64 | Will a Historic Labor Strike occur in the United States before 2030?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.64 | I go through the scaling book this week?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 238_072 Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days Emad Mostaque | AI | 74% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-05 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | ||
| 0.64 | Trump orders mandatory AI predeployment evals by end of August(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 240_050 US will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a job Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.64 | Will Claude replace Grok on X in 2026?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 231_002 Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 244_002 Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15) Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 38% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 247_037 Quantum computing will not break Bitcoin (Mike Saylor position) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 54% | ||
| 0.64 | Will there be a government shutdown before January 2027?(market prob: 48%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 232_028 In AI age there will be unlimited entrepreneurial opportunity; the 'only AI' displacement narrative is wrong. Ben Horowitz | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 241_051 AI systems eventually won't have the ability to do completely new things Eric Schmidt | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.64 | Will there be 100+ HackerNews stories posted in 24h?(market prob: 98%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.64 | Will ChatGPT personal finance release for Plus Plans in 2026?(market prob: 71%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.64 | Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-29 | INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 231_014 Remaining research math problems will be solved within next couple months. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.64 | Will the OSN-K 2026 announcement be on time?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 238_006 Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) Emad Mostaque | Labor/Jobs | 40% | ||
| 0.64 | Will USTC be above $ 0.01 in August 2026(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.64 | Will New Glenn fly again in 2026?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 242_013 Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 55% | |
| 0.64 | Will New Glenn fly again in 2026?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 246_002 SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 46% | |
| 0.64 | Bitcoin $80K in June?(market prob: 3%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.64 | Will the May 2026 US Core CPI be reported at 0.3% or higher (MoM)?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-04 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-29 | INF_037 An all-out AI arms race between the US and China is inevitable — reaching superintelligence first provides a decisive unassailable economic and military advantage, analogous to early nuclear primacy. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Geopolitics | 58% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Bitcoin reach $90K USD in May 2026?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.64 | Will a real Scientologist trade on this market?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross | Crypto | 26% | |
| 0.64 | Will I deploy my business website by the end of April 2026?(market prob: 96%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 238_017 Uber will automate approximately 30% of its employment this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 51% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-30 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Bitcoin go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.64 | Will SBF get back into crypto after being released?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 43% | |
| 0.64 | Will I pay any money to Manifold during 2026 for something in the site?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.64 | Will I pay any money to Manifold during 2026 for something in the site?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.64 | Will QCOM stock reach $300 by the end of 2026?(market prob: 74%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.64 | Will SPY be above 720.65 on market close May 8th?(market prob: 82%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.64 | New pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket](market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.64 | Will Nord Pool 2028 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?(market prob: 52%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_012 AI data-center power consumption will grow by approximately 126 GW annually through 2028 — comparable to Canada's total annual power demand, and representing nearly 20% of projected global power growth through 2030. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 46% | |
| 0.64 | Will Sam Altman file a case against anthropic in next 3 months?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.64 | Will Solana trade above $100 by the end of May 2026?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk | AI | 44% | ||
| 0.64 | Will Polymarket launch its official token in 2026?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-15 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-16 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | ||
| 0.64 | Will SPY close above $750 on Monday, May 18, 2026?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 247_056 Net job loss probably not; dynamism with some categories going away Alex Wissner-Gross | Labor/Jobs | 37% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 237_025 We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. Peter Diamandis | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.64 | Bitcoin $80K in June?(market prob: 3%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-06-02 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.64 | Will May 2026 U.S. personal income rise at least 0.4% month-over-month?(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.64 | Will TheTechQuant reach 200 followers by Jun 1 2026?(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 240_010 NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-27 | SEM_020 Nvidia preemptively reserved 800,000-850,000 TSMC wafers for 2026 — 8x SMIC's entire advanced-process capacity. Nvidia (All-In Podcast analysis) | Semis | 74% | ||
| 0.64 | Tesla reaches $400 before $300?(market prob: 70%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 239_015 Tesla output per employee will become very very high Elon Musk | Labor/Jobs | 40% | |
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-04-29 | INF_048 Global data-center energy demand will reach approximately 945 Terawatt-hours by 2030 — a roughly 175% increase from 2023 levels — requiring complete grid overhauls in major markets. IEA | Energy | 48% | ||
| 0.64 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.64 | Bitcoin $69K in May?(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.64 | Bitcoin $84K in May?(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.64 | Bitcoin $82K in May?(market prob: 96%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.64 | Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.64 | Will SpaceX Plan a booster catch on Flight 12?(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | ROB_023 SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026. Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 58% | |
| 0.64 | Hantavirus Pandemic 2026-2027?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 236_047 New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 55% | |
| 0.64 | Will Claude replace Grok on X in 2026?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% |