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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.63	ProvenanceGuard: Source-Aware Factuality Verification for MCP-Based LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	DiagFlowBench: Evaluating How Language Models Handle Off-Procedure Inputs in Grounded Diagnostic Dialogue	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.63	MathVis-Fine: Aligning Visual Supervision with Necessity via Progressive Dependency-Guided Training for Multimodal Mathematical Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.63	Structural Preservation and the Logical Expressiveness of Graph Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-16	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	High-Fidelity 3D Geometric Reconstruction of Pelvic Organs from MRI: A Hybrid Deep Learning and Iterative Optimization Approach	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Visored: A Controlled-Natural-Language Prover for LLM-Generated Mathematics	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Surrogate Assisted Pedestrian Protection Design via a Foundation Model Orchestrated Workflow	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Decoding Hidden Deception in Reasoning LLMs: Activation Explainers for Deception Auditing	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	AIPatient Arena: EHR-grounded evaluation of large language models in end-to-end clinical consultation workflows	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.63	Bridging Spatial And Frequency Views For Disaster Assessment: Benefits And Limitations	arxiv 2026-06-16	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Visuals Lie, Consistency Speaks: Disentangling Spatial Attention from Reliability in Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-16	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	Visuals Lie, Consistency Speaks: Disentangling Spatial Attention from Reliability in Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.63	TerraTransfer: Learning End-to-End Driving Policies Without Expert Demonstrations	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	ARVO: Atlas of Reproducible Vulnerabilities for Open-Source Software	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.63	Rift: A Conflict Signature for Deception in Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.63	Tensor-based second-order causal discovery	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Recursive Scaling in Masked Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	Half a Link can Be Enough to Predict a Whole Link: Understanding Generalization in Knowledge Graph Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-16	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.63	Meta-classification of one-class classification models using ranking correlation and nearest neighbor	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	Bounded Difference Concentration for Infinitely Exchangeable Sequences with Applications to AI Benchmark Uncertainty	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Decision-Driven Geosteering Under Uncertainty: A Unified Framework for Sequential Decision Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	SPARK: Low Latency Single-Camera 3D Pose Estimation for Autonomous Racing using Keypoints	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	AnnotateAnything: Automatic Annotation of 3D Assets for Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.63	Unified Motion-Action Modeling for Heterogeneous Robot Learning	arxiv 2026-06-15	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.63	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19?(market prob: 65%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.63	Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.63	UBP2: Uncertainty-Balanced Preference Planning for Efficient Preference-based Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-17	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.63	Language Models as Interfaces, Not Oracles: A Hybrid LLM-ML System for Pediatric Appendicitis	arxiv 2026-06-17	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.63	AdsMind: A Physics-Grounded Multi-Agent System for Self-Correcting Discovery of Adsorption Configurations on Heterogeneous Catalyst Surfaces	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	ThinkDeception: A Progressive Reinforcement Learning Framework for Interpretable Multimodal Deception Detection	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	As Easy as Rocket Science: Assessing the Ability of Large Language Models to Interpret Negation in Figurative Language	arxiv 2026-06-17	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.63	Target-confidence Recourse Using tSeTlin machines: TRUST	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	What Does the Weight Norm Control in Grokking? Logit-Scale Mediation under Cross-Entropy	arxiv 2026-06-16	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	SAE Interventions are Unreliable: Post-Intervention Recovery of Suppressed Behavior	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.63	Acceleration of an algebraic multigrid pressure solver using graph neural networks	arxiv 2026-06-17	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.63	A Human-in-the-Loop Bayesian Optimization Framework for Constraint-Aware Bioprocess Development	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	AGDN: Learning to Solve Traveling Salesman Problem with Anisotropic Graph Diffusion Network	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Seeing Before Reasoning: Decoupling Perception and Reasoning for Shortcut-Resilient Multimodal On-Policy Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	Adaptive Speech-to-Spike Encoding for Spiking Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-17	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.63	Online Reward-Punishment Learning from Fixed-Channel Perceptual Event Streams without Environment Rewards	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.63	REVES: REvision and VErification--Augmented Training for Test-Time Scaling	arxiv 2026-06-17	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	Anomaly Detection for Sparse and Irregular Multivariate Time Series with Latent SDEs	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.63	Structural MRI Synthesis for Alzheimer's Disease via Conditional Diffusion on Anatomical Masks	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	Dango: A Strictly L1-Only Large Language Model for Studying Second Language Acquisition	arxiv 2026-06-17	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.63	Mobile Pedipulation for Object Sliding via Hierarchical Control on a Wheeled Bipedal Robot	arxiv 2026-06-17	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.63	Admittance-Based Surface Alignment for Human-in-the-Loop Robotic Visual Inspection	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 30?(market prob: 95%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.62	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2025-11-24	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 30?(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor	Crypto	48%
0.62	Callais: Which of these states will use a new congressional map for 2026?	manifold 2026-04-29	FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan	Macro/Economy	72%
0.62	When will the first prediction market ETF launch?	manifold 2026-04-29	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.62	Will Ineffable Intelligence release a paper or model before SSI?(market prob: 59%)	manifold 2026-04-28	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.62	When will the Gravity Chess finals happen?	manifold 2026-04-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026? (Polymarket)	manifold 2026-04-25	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.62	Global Average Temperature May 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)	manifold 2026-04-25	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.62	Which of these will I achieve?	manifold 2026-04-24	230_034 Abundance will be achieved by 2035. Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	41%
0.62	Tesla Q1 26 Earnings Claims Prop Bets	manifold 2026-04-24	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.62		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.62		gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	87%
0.62		gdelt 2026-04-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.62		gdelt 2026-04-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	2580710	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_028 NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026). Jensen Huang	Semis	72%
0.62	polaris inc q1 2026 earnings 123000514.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.62		gdelt 2026-04-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62		gdelt 2026-04-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.62	Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 2?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-01-13	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.62	Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.62	Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $100 on May 11, 2026?(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-05-01	AUT_024 H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int... Morgan Stanley	AI	42%
0.62	Will US average gas price reach … in May 2026?	manifold 2026-05-01	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.62	Will US average gas price reach … in May 2026?	manifold 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.62	Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	S_RECESSION_2027 NBER recession declared 2027	macro_recession	30%
0.62	Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.62	Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.62	Next day with a US average gas price decrease?	manifold 2026-05-03	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.62	Will anybody win the Prize Drawings more than once in 2026?(market prob: 83%)	manifold 2026-05-04	SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Mathematics	15%
0.62	Will Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-05-04	247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.62	Will Terminator2 have at least 200 Moltbook followers by 2026-05-18?(market prob: 83%)	manifold 2026-05-04	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.62	FDA ANDA090431: DOXYCYCLINE HYCLATE (DOXYCYCLINE HYCLATE) — RISING	fda 2026-04-09	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	FDA ANDA090505: DOXYCYCLINE HYCLATE (DOXYCYCLINE HYCLATE) — IMPAX LABS INC	fda 2026-04-09	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	openai/openai-python v2.31.0	github_release 2026-04-08	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	openai/openai-python v2.23.0	github_release 2026-02-24	CMQ_001 By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. Sam Altman	AI	45%
0.62	openai/openai-python v2.20.0	github_release 2026-02-10	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.62	openai/openai-python v2.15.0	github_release 2026-01-09	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.62	openai/openai-python v2.9.0	github_release 2025-12-04	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.62	openai/openai-python v2.9.0	github_release 2025-12-04	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.62	openai/openai-python v2.8.1	github_release 2025-11-17	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.62	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.77.1	github_release 2026-02-03	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.62	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.3.0	github_release 2022-12-13	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.62	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.3.0	github_release 2022-12-13	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.62	huggingface/transformers v5.0.0rc3	github_release 2026-01-26	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.62	huggingface/transformers v5.0.0rc2	github_release 2026-01-08	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.18.0-rc0	github_release 2024-09-30	240_021 Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.16.1	github_release 2024-03-07	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.62	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 15%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.62	MANIFOLD TURING TEST: Can commenters distinguish snigus's vs CalibratedGhosts's replies ≥75%?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-05	230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.62	Inconsistent Databases and Argumentation Frameworks with Collective Attacks	arxiv 2026-05-05	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	Correct Is Not Enough: Training Reasoning Planners with Executor-Grounded Rewards	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Rethinking the Rank Threshold for LoRA Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-05-05	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.62	Rethinking the Rank Threshold for LoRA Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.62	FUS3DMaps: Scalable and Accurate Open-Vocabulary Semantic Mapping by 3D Fusion of Voxel- and Instance-Level Layers	arxiv 2026-05-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Stage Light is Sequence$^2$: Multi-Light Control via Imitation Learning	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	DynaTab: Dynamic Feature Ordering as Neural Rewiring for High-Dimensional Tabular Data	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Self-Mined Hardness for Safety Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Self-Mined Hardness for Safety Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.62	First-Order Efficiency for Probabilistic Value Estimation via A Statistical Viewpoint	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	First-Order Efficiency for Probabilistic Value Estimation via A Statistical Viewpoint	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	On Computing Total Variation Distance Between Mixtures of Product Distributions	arxiv 2026-05-05	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Population-Aware Imitation Learning in Mean-field Games with Common Noise	arxiv 2026-05-05	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.62	TCD-Arena: Assessing Robustness of Time Series Causal Discovery Methods Against Assumption Violations	arxiv 2026-05-04	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.62	Dimensionality-Aware Anomaly Detection in Learned Representations of Self-Supervised Speech Models	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Online Generalised Predictive Coding	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	A Novel Preprocessing-Driven Approach to Remaining Useful Life (RUL) Prediction Using Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN)	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Efficient Preference Poisoning Attack on Offline RLHF	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	How Language Models Process Negation	arxiv 2026-05-04	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.62	A multilingual hallucination benchmark: MultiWikiQHalluA	arxiv 2026-05-04	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.62	When Correct Isn't Usable: Improving Structured Output Reliability in Small Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.62	EditPropBench: Measuring Factual Edit Propagation in Scientific Manuscripts	arxiv 2026-05-03	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	Bridging the Embodiment Gap: Disentangled Cross-Embodiment Video Editing	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.62	Bridging the Embodiment Gap: Disentangled Cross-Embodiment Video Editing	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Entangling gates for the SU(N) anyons	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	FDA ANDA220568: GLYCEROL PHENYLBUTYRATE (GLYCEROL PHENYLBUTYRATE) — NAVINTA LLC	fda 2026-04-23	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	openai/openai-python v2.35.0	github_release 2026-05-06	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	openai/openai-python v2.35.0	github_release 2026-05-06	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.62	Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.62	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 8?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.62	What will happen related to the Hantavirus in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-07	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.62	Paraphrase-Induced Output-Mode Collapse: When LLMs Break Character Under Semantically Equivalent Inputs	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Open-Source Image Editing Models Are Zero-Shot Vision Learners	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Telegraph English: Semantic Prompt Compression via Structured Symbolic Rewriting	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Towards Self-Referential Analytic Assessment: A Profile-Based Approach to L2 Writing Evaluation with LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.62	Jordan-RoPE: Non-Semisimple Relative Positional Encoding via Complex Jordan Blocks	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Correct Is Not Enough: Training Reasoning Planners with Executor-Grounded Rewards	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.3.1	github_release 2024-03-15	237_022 Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years. Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.62	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.3.1	github_release 2024-03-15	CMQ_047 Autonomous code agents and AutoResearch systems will close the loop on complex scientific experimentation without human-in-the-loop. Andrej Karpathy	AI	51%
0.62	facebookresearch/faiss v1.6.4	github_release 2020-10-22	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	87%
0.62	facebookresearch/faiss v1.3.0	github_release 2018-07-12	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	87%
0.62	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.35	github_release 2026-02-20	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.62	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.29	github_release 2024-12-27	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.62	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.27.post1	github_release 2024-07-25	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.62	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.26.post1	github_release 2024-04-29	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9?(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in May?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.62	Will Bitcoin close above $90,000 on any day between May 8 and July 31, 2026?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-05-08	247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google	AI	46%
0.62	Will "Natural Language Autoencoders Produce Unsuper..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-07	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	ReasonSTL: Bridging Natural Language and Signal Temporal Logic via Tool-Augmented Process-Rewarded Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Rethinking Vacuity for OOD Detection in Evidential Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Log-Likelihood, Simpson's Paradox, and the Detection of Machine-Generated Text	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	A Topological Sorting Criterion for Random Causal Directed Acyclic Graphs	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.62	The Weight Gram Matrix Captures Sequential Feature Linearization in Deep Networks	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Soft Deterministic Policy Gradient with Gaussian Smoothing	arxiv 2026-05-07	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.62	TIDE: Every Layer Knows the Token Beneath the Context	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.62	Taming the Entropy Cliff: Variable Codebook Size Quantization for Autoregressive Visual Generation	arxiv 2026-05-07	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.62	The Granularity Axis: A Micro-to-Macro Latent Direction for Social Roles in Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.62	Graphlets as Building Blocks for Structural Vocabulary in Knowledge Graph Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	AdaGamma: State-Dependent Discounting for Temporal Adaptation in Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Schedule-and-Calibrate: Utility-Guided Multi-Task Reinforcement Learning for Code LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Adding Thermal Awareness to Visual Systems in Real-Time via Distilled Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Adding Thermal Awareness to Visual Systems in Real-Time via Distilled Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.62	From Coordinate Matching to Structural Alignment: Rethinking Prototype Alignment in Heterogeneous Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Hallucination as an Anomaly: Dynamic Intervention via Probabilistic Circuits	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies	arxiv 2026-05-07	248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.62	Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Beyond the Independence Assumption: Finite-Sample Guarantees for Deep Q-Learning under $τ$-Mixing	arxiv 2026-05-07	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	Eliciting associations between clinical variables from LLMs via comparison questions across populations	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Perceive, Route and Modulate: Dynamic Pattern Recalibration for Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-07	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.62	Region Seeding via Pre-Activation Regularization: A Geometric View from Piecewise Affine Nerual Networks	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	LatentRAG: Latent Reasoning and Retrieval for Efficient Agentic RAG	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	AffineLens: Capturing the Continuous Piecewise Affine Functions of Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Requests of a Feather Must Flock Together: Batch Size vs. Prefix Homogeneity in LLM Inference	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Towards Steering without Sacrifice: Principled Training of Steering Vectors for Prompt-only Interventions	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.62	Algospeak, Hiding in the Open: The Trade-off Between Legible Meaning and Detection Avoidance	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Don't Lose Focus: Activation Steering via Key-Orthogonal Projections	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.62	The Cost of Context: Mitigating Textual Bias in Multimodal Retrieval-Augmented Generation	arxiv 2026-05-07	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.62	A Unified Benchmark for Evaluating Knowledge Graph Construction Methods and Graph Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-06	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Beyond BLEU: A Semantic Evaluation Method for Code Translation	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Lie Group Formulation of Recursive Dynamics Algorithms of Higher Order for Floating-Base Robots	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.62	Accurate Trajectory Tracking with MPCC for Flapping-Wing MAVs	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.62	Accurate Trajectory Tracking with MPCC for Flapping-Wing MAVs	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	A Comparative Study of INDI and NDI with Nonlinear Disturbance Observer for Aerial Robotics	arxiv 2026-05-07	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.62	Passive Fault Tolerance through Tension-to-Thrust Feed-Forward: Hybrid Input-to-State Stability for Decentralized Multi-UAV Slung-Load Transport under Abrupt Cable Severance	arxiv 2026-05-06	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.62	Koopman Identification of Nonlinear Systems via Reservoir Liftings	arxiv 2026-05-06	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Practical validation of synthetic pre-crash scenarios	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 10?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	US x China tariff agreement by May 31st? [Polymarket](market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-05-09	232_012 US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. Ben Horowitz	Geopolitics	44%
0.62	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11?(market prob: 34%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 12?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will this self-referential market reach 50 unique traders before June 1, 2026?(market prob: 23%)	manifold 2026-05-11	SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban	Economy	30%
0.62	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.101.0	github_release 2026-05-11	247_060 Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.62	facebookresearch/spdl v0.0.10	github_release 2025-03-20	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.62	facebookresearch/HolisticTraceAnalysis v0.6.0	github_release 2026-04-21	COD_BIO_005 Colossal adds at least one more de-extinction species to active embryo-transfer pipeline by end 2028 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	facebookresearch/HolisticTraceAnalysis v0.6.0	github_release 2026-04-21	IND_005 Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~... Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	33%
0.62	facebookresearch/HolisticTraceAnalysis v0.5.0	github_release 2025-05-28	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.62	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.4.0	github_release 2024-02-28	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.62	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.4.0	github_release 2024-02-28	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.62	Will Polymarket launch its official token in 2026?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-13	SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. Kevin Weil	AI/Agents	74%
0.62	Will there be a government shutdown before January 2027?(market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-05-13	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.62	Will Claude become a Pokèmon Master by the end of August 2026?(market prob: 58%)	manifold 2026-05-12	CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei	AI	28%
0.62	Learning Minimally Rigid Graphs with High Realization Counts	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.62	A Semi-Supervised Framework for Speech Confidence Detection using Whisper	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Neural-Schwarz Tiling for Geometry-Universal PDE Solving at Scale	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Targeted Neuron Modulation via Contrastive Pair Search	arxiv 2026-05-12	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	What makes a word hard to learn? Modeling L1 influence on English vocabulary difficulty	arxiv 2026-05-12	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.62	Reconstruction of Personally Identifiable Information from Supervised Finetuned Models	arxiv 2026-05-12	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.62	DriftXpress: Faster Drifting Models via Projected RKHS Fields	arxiv 2026-05-12	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	PrivacySIM: Evaluating LLM Simulation of User Privacy Behavior	arxiv 2026-05-12	231_021 Privacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and micro drones gathering data. Peter Diamandis	Consumer	59%
0.62	From Generic Correlation to Input-Specific Credit in On-Policy Self Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-12	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.62	Three Regimes of Context-Parametric Conflict: A Predictive Framework and Empirical Validation	arxiv 2026-05-12	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.62	Three Regimes of Context-Parametric Conflict: A Predictive Framework and Empirical Validation	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.62	FedOUI: OUI-Guided Client Weighting for Federated Aggregation	arxiv 2026-05-12	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Efficient and provably convergent end-to-end training of deep neural networks with linear constraints	arxiv 2026-05-12	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn	Crypto	43%
0.62	Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 15?(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.62	Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.62	Provable Quantization with Randomized Hadamard Transform	arxiv 2026-05-13	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Multi-Objective and Mixed-Reward Reinforcement Learning via Reward-Decorrelated Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Causal Learning with the Invariance Principle	arxiv 2026-05-13	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.62	MPINeuralODE: Multiple-Initial-Condition Physics-Informed Neural ODEs for Globally Consistent Dynamical System Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	Spectral Flattening Is All Muon Needs: How Orthogonalization Controls Learning Rate and Convergence	arxiv 2026-05-13	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.62	F-GRPO: Factorized Group-Relative Policy Optimization for Unified Candidate Generation and Ranking	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-10-15	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.62	What will trump say this month? (Kalshi)	manifold 2026-05-15	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.62	How much additional mana will be printed by the 2x trader bonuses in 7 days? (total trader bonuses divided by 2)	manifold 2026-05-15	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.62	Eradicating Negative Transfer in Multi-Physics Foundation Models via Sparse Mixture-of-Experts Routing	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	DeepTokenEEG Enhancing Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimers Classification via Tokenized EEG Features	arxiv 2026-05-14	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.62	Real-time virtual circuits for plasma shape control via neural network emulators	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_030 Deploying agentic processing capabilities directly into orbit via the Vera Rubin Space-1 Module eliminates terrestrial data-routing bottlenecks but introduces extreme engineering challenges — dissipating computational heat purely through thermal radiat... Jensen Huang	Space	33%
0.62	PROCESS-2: A Benchmark Speech Corpus for Early Cognitive Impairment Detection	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.62	Crys-JEPA: Accelerating Crystal Discovery via Embedding Screening and Generative Refinement	arxiv 2026-05-14	232_050 Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.62	Cognitive-Uncertainty Guided Knowledge Distillation for Accurate Classification of Student Misconceptions	arxiv 2026-05-14	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.62	Unbiased and Second-Order-Free Training for High-Dimensional PDEs	arxiv 2026-05-14	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Unbiased and Second-Order-Free Training for High-Dimensional PDEs	arxiv 2026-05-14	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.62	DRL-STAF: A Deep Reinforcement Learning Framework for State-Aware Forecasting of Complex Multivariate Hidden Markov Processes	arxiv 2026-05-14	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.62	Action-Inspired Generative Models	arxiv 2026-05-14	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.62	Fast Rates for Inverse Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Let Robots Feel Your Touch: Visuo-Tactile Cortical Alignment for Embodied Mirror Resonance	arxiv 2026-05-14	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Large Dimensional Kernel Ridge Regression: Extending to Product Kernels	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Optimal Pattern Detection Tree for Symbolic Rule-Based Classification	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	LoMETab: Beyond Rank-1 Ensembles for Tabular Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Stochastic Matching via Local Sparsification	arxiv 2026-05-13	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.62	A Systematic Evaluation of Imbalance Handling Methods in Biomedical Binary Classification	arxiv 2026-05-13	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.62	FDA ANDA063181: MINOCYCLINE HYDROCHLORIDE (MINOCYCLINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — WATSON LABS TEVA	fda 2026-05-12	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	FDA BLA761195: VYVGART (EFGARTIGIMOD ALFA) — ARGENX BV	fda 2026-05-08	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.62	FDA NDA022173: ZYPREXA RELPREVV (OLANZAPINE PAMOATE) — CHEPLAPHARM	fda 2026-05-07	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	How many countries will I visit this year? (2026)	manifold 2026-05-17	243_002 Uber will be in 15 cities with autonomous partners by end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	75%
0.62	Altar of Champions 2026 Winner?	manifold 2026-05-16	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will Solana dip to $70 in May?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.62	Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.62	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 19?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	New fish species (market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-19	COD_BIO_005 Colossal adds at least one more de-extinction species to active embryo-transfer pipeline by end 2028 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	Will BTC-USD close above $100,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-05-18	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	ANALOG DEVICES INC (ADI) (CIK 0000006281)	edgar_8k 2026-05-19	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.62	Can machine learning for quantum-gas experiments be explainable?	arxiv 2026-05-18	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.62	Better Together: Evaluating the Complementarity of Earth Embedding Models	arxiv 2026-05-18	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.62	A No-Defense Defense Against Gradient-Based Adversarial Attacks on ML-NIDS: Is Less More?	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	AI4BayesCode: From Natural Language Descriptions to Validated Modular Stateful Bayesian Samplers	arxiv 2026-05-18	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	Prompt2Fingerprint: Plug-and-Play LLM Fingerprinting via Text-to-Weight Generation	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.62	Scheduling That Speaks: An Interpretable Programmatic Reinforcement Learning Framework	arxiv 2026-05-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Graph Hierarchical Recurrence for Long-Range Generalization	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Generating Physically Consistent Molecules with Energy-Based Models	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	ISEP: Implicit Support Expansion for Offline Reinforcement Learning via Stochastic Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.62	Subject-Specific Analysis of Self-Initiated Attention Shifts from EEG with Controlled Internal and External Attention Conditions	arxiv 2026-05-18	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.62	Concise and Logically Consistent Conformal Sets for Neuro-Symbolic Concept-Based Models	arxiv 2026-05-18	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.62	Canonical Regularisation of Wide Feature-Learning Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	SAS: Semantic-aware Sampling for Generative Dataset Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-18	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Testable and Actionable Calibration for Full Swap Regret	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.62	Domain Incremental Learning for Pandemic-Resilient Chest X-Ray Analysis	arxiv 2026-05-18	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.62	Toy Combinatorial Interpretability Models Reveal Lottery Tickets in Early Feature Space	arxiv 2026-05-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	237_021 Alex Finn will eventually give his AI agents crypto wallets once they can generate business autonomously. Alex Finn	Crypto	40%
0.62	Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 40 by May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.62	Will the Internet Computer Protocol token/coin (ICP) reach $3.50 by end of June 30, 2026?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-05-29	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.62	Double digit USD inflation before 2028 election?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-26	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.62	Will I complete Quicktakeshaven before August 2026(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-26	239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk	AI	44%
0.62	Will Unicode remove an existing emoji before the end of 2030?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-24	FUT_006 Organizations must practice 'creative destruction on purpose' 2026-2031: deliberately dismantle legacy operations before lateral multi-domain convergence renders them obsolete. Traditional technology hype cycle rejected; future no longer arrives one tr... Amy Webb	Macro/Economy	50%
0.62	VideoMLA: Low-Rank Latent KV Cache for Minute-Scale Autoregressive Video Diffusion	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.62	Before the Shutter: Aesthetic and Actionable Portrait Photography Planning in 3D Scenes	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	MedCase-Structured: A Text-to-FHIR Dataset for Benchmarking Diagnostic Reasoning in Clinically Realistic EHR Settings	arxiv 2026-05-28	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.62	mcp-proto-okn: Natural-language access to open scientific knowledge graphs through the Model Context Protocol	arxiv 2026-05-28	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	Loong: A Human-Like Long Document Translation Agent with Observe-and-Act Adaptive Context Selection	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.62	LLUMI: Improving LLM Writing Assistance for Mental Health Support with Online Community Feedback	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Test Time Training for Supervised Causal Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.62	Unveiling the Visual Counting Bottleneck in Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	EVL-ECG: Efficient ECG Interpretation With Multi-Aspect Heterogeneous Knowledge Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	TraceCodec: A Compiler-Backed Neural Codec for Stateful Multi-Flow Network Traffic Traces	arxiv 2026-05-28	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	A Geometric View of SRC: Learning Representations for Stable Residual Inference	arxiv 2026-05-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Convex Basins in Single-Index Model Loss Landscapes: Applications to Robust Recovery under Strong Adversarial Corruption	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Composing Non-Conjugate Factor Graphs with Closed-Form Variational Inference	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Solving Integer Linear Programming with Parallel Tempering	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.62	Causal Label Recovery in Payment Networks	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.62	Robust Frequency-Calibrated Virtual EEG Channel Generation from Four Frontal Electrodes for Wearable EEG Augmentation	arxiv 2026-05-28	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.62	Prediction-Powered Inference Across Many Tasks for AI Evaluation & Social Science Research	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	AfriScience-MT: Towards Decolonizing Science in Africa through Text Translation	arxiv 2026-05-28	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	From Blind Guess to Informed Judgment: Teaching LLMs to Evaluate Materials by Building Knowledge-Augmented Preference Signals	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.62	From Blind Guess to Informed Judgment: Teaching LLMs to Evaluate Materials by Building Knowledge-Augmented Preference Signals	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Towards Human-Like Interactive Speech Recognition With Agentic Correction and Semantic Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	Architecture-Sensitive Supervised Fine-Tuning for Screen-Conditioned Action Prediction: A PiSAR Benchmark	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.62	ElegantVLA: Learning When to Think for Efficient Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Late-time Quantum Vacuum Decay and its Cosmological Implications	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	openai/openai-python v2.38.0	github_release 2026-05-21	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.62	Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 1?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 1?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on June 1?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Will Berkshire Hathaway buy back shares in q2 2026?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-06-01	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.62	FDA ANDA210454: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — EUGIA PHARMA	fda 2026-05-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	FDA NDA217604: PYRIDOSTIGMINE BROMIDE (PYRIDOSTIGMINE BROMIDE) — AMNEAL	fda 2026-05-12	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 3?(market prob: 95%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.62	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3?(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.62	What will trump say this month? (Kalshi)	manifold 2026-06-02	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.62	Free Lottery (tidal disruption event)(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-06-02	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.62	Will a semiconductor fabrication plant project in Australia be announced before June 1st 2027?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-06-02	SEM_013 Every nation needs to build advanced chip manufacturing capability — sovereign semiconductor production is existential. Jensen Huang	Policy/Semis	73%
0.62	Ghost Tool Calls: Issue-Time Privacy for Speculative Agent Tools	arxiv 2026-06-01	234_050 Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilities Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	MASER: Modality-Adaptive Specialist Routing for Embodied 3D Spatial Intelligence	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.62	AgentPLM: Agentic Protein Language Models with Reasoning-Augmented Decoding for Protein Sequence Design	arxiv 2026-06-01	IND_012 NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a decade — Evo 2 achieves 90% accuracy in BRCA1 predictions; AI models will seamlessly transition generated biological designs into practical, synthesized clinical... Jensen Huang	Biotech/Longevity	68%
0.62	Spatial Representation Learning Beyond Pixels: Unifying Raster Data and Vector Semantics for Human-Centric Geospatial Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_016 Rural landscapes in the Global South move beyond conventional food production toward highly complex, multifunctional systems — agentic AI platforms synthesize localized ecological data to enable precision organic farming, transparent environmental prot... Peter Dannenberg	Other	42%
0.62	FW-NKF: Frequency-Weighted Neural Kalman Filters	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Argument Collapse: LLMs Flatten Long-Form Public Debate	arxiv 2026-06-01	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.62	JenBridge: Adaptive Long-Form Video Soundtracking across Scene Transitions	arxiv 2026-06-01	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	JenBridge: Adaptive Long-Form Video Soundtracking across Scene Transitions	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.62	HAIM: Human-AI Music Datasets for AI Music Production Tracking Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-01	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.62	Time-Aware Diffusion based on Preference Disentanglement for Generative Recommendation	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.62	TechGraphRAG: An Agentic Graph-Augmented RAG Framework for Technical Literature Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.62	TN-SHAP-G: Graph-Structured Tensor Network Surrogates for Shapley Values and Interactions	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Computation-Aware Kalman Filtering with Model Selection for Neural Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-31	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	Closing the Alignment-Maturity Gap in Federated Prototype Learning	arxiv 2026-06-01	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	ProbRes: Volatility Learning for Probabilistic Time-Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-01	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.62	When Tabular Foundation Models Transfer Across Modalities: A Systematic Evaluation Across 95 Datasets, 7 Modalities, and Two Regimes	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	A Closer Look at In-Distribution vs. Out-of-Distribution Accuracy for Open-Set Test-time Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-01	238_025 AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level Emad Mostaque	AI	45%
0.62	Beyond the Simplex: Balanced Prototype Geometry for Scorer-Agnostic Open-Set Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-01	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.62	ContinuousBench: Can Differentially Private Synthetic Text Improve Capabilities?	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	CANARY: Zero-Label Detection of Fine-Tuning Contamination in Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.62	RobustModelMaker: Coupling Bootstrap Stability Selection with Leakage-Safe Nested Cross-Validation for Scientific Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-06-01	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.62	Genotype-Conditioned Molecular Generation via Evidence-Grounded Multi-Objective Latent Perturbation in Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-05-31	IND_020 Massive 'rerating' of Biotech industry — by 2026, generative biology achieves its 'De Novo' moment where an AI-designed drug candidate triggers multi-billion-dollar partnerships; AI expands Total Addressable Market (TAM) of gene editing by 100x, moving... Morgan Stanley	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.62	CEAR: Certified Ensemble Adversarial Robustness in DNNs	arxiv 2026-05-31	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	TVIR: Building Deep Research Agents Towards Text--Visual Interleaved Report Generation	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	ResMerge: Residual-based Spectral Merging of Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	On the Salience of Low-Probability Tokens for AI-Generated Text Detection: A Multiscale Uncertainty Perspective	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	DFlare: Scaling Up Draft Capacity for Block Diffusion Speculative Decoding	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Implicit Geographic Inference in LLM Medical Triage: Language-Driven Disparities in Emergency Recommendations	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.62	A Registry-Bound LLM Pipeline for Evidence-Grounded Trait Extraction across Tropical Plants, Aquatic Species, and Exotic Pets	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.62	MLLM-Microscope: Unlocking Hidden Structure Within Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-30	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.62	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.1.4	github_release 2020-01-21	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4?(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 4?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.62	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in June?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Elon Musk's Death(market prob: 1%)	manifold 2026-06-03	246_008 Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	62%
0.62	FDA ANDA211020: BUPROPION HYDROCHLORIDE (BUPROPION HYDROCHLORIDE) — GRAVITI PHARMS	fda 2026-05-29	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	FDA ANDA076521: CARBIDOPA AND LEVODOPA (CARBIDOPA) — IMPAX LABS	fda 2026-05-28	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 5?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.62	Will Navier-Stokes be considered solved on June 3th 2027?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-06-04	231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.62	Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 5?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.62	Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 5?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will the Jones Act be in effect for more than half of 2027?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-06-05	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.62	Code2LoRA: Hypernetwork-Generated Adapters for Code Language Models under Software Evolution	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	HomeWorld: A Unified Floorplan-to-Furnished Framework for Generating Controllable, Densely Interactive Whole-Home Scenes	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.62	CLEAR: Cognition and Latent Evaluation for Adaptive Routing in End-to-End Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Learning Visual Spatial Planning from Symbolic State via Modality-Gap-Aware Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	UniVoice: A Unified Model for Speech and Singing Voice Generation	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	LongSpace: Exploring Long-Horizon Spatial Memory from Perception to Recall in Video	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	When Surface Form Changes Moderation Decisions: A Paired Study of Code-Mixed Workflow Instability	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_021 Defining software movement of 2026: startups building autonomous platforms specifically designed to clean/structure/continuously validate multimodal data — unstructured corporate sludge (PDFs, logs, videos, emails) causes autonomous agentic workflows t... Marc Andreessen	AI	57%
0.62	Dimensionality Reduction for Cyberattack Classification: A Comparative Evaluation of PCA and Linear Predictive Coding	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.62	Almieyar-Oryx-BloomBench: A Bilingual Multimodal Benchmark for Cognitively Informed Evaluation of Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	DNQ: Deep Nash Q-Network for Partially Observable n-Player Games	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Attack Detection using Time Series Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	231_017 A major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models is absolutely a threat vector. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	Efficient Mean Curvature Computation on High-Dimensional Data Manifolds	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Robust and sparse support vector machine via hybrid truncated loss for supervised classification	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	SALT: When More Rollouts Don't Help in Group-Based Policy Optimization and How to Make Them Matter	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.62	Automated Proving of Shannon-Type Entropy Inequalities via Fine-Tuned Language Models and Guided Tree Search	arxiv 2026-06-04	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.62	Can We Predict The Human Preference For Text-to-Image Content Prior To Generation And Is It Even Useful To Do So?	arxiv 2026-06-03	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.62	Can We Predict The Human Preference For Text-to-Image Content Prior To Generation And Is It Even Useful To Do So?	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Harnessing Generalist Agents for Contextualized Time Series	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Mamba-Assisted Non-Markovian Closure for Reduced-Order Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-03	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Reinforcement Learning from Rich Feedback with Distributional DAgger	arxiv 2026-06-03	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Revising Context, Shifting Simulated Stance: Auditing LLM-Based Stance Simulation in Online Discussions	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil	AI	30%
0.62	The Generator-Eraser Paradox: Community Guidelines for Responsible LLM-Assisted Dialect Resource Creation	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.62	Can LLMs Be Constrained to the Past? Improving Knowledge Cutoff through Recall-Based Prompting	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	An Embarrassingly Simple Detector for Model Extraction Attacks in Large Language Model API Traffic	arxiv 2026-06-04	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	What's in a Name? Morphological Shortcuts by LLMs in Pharmacology	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.62	Using Large Language Models to Support High Volume Application Review for an Undergraduate Research Program	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	Trajectory Dynamics in Language Model Hidden States Predict Human Processing Costs Beyond Surprisal	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Audio Interaction Model	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.62	Continual Visual and Verbal Learning Through a Child's Egocentric Input	arxiv 2026-06-03	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.62	Automatic Generation of Titles for Research Papers Using Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Validity Threats for Foundation Model Research	arxiv 2026-06-03	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.62	Reproducing, Analyzing, and Detecting Reward Hacking in Rubric-Based Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-03	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.62	Read What You Hear: Reference-Free Hypotheses Evaluation with Acoustic Discrepancy	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	VentAgent: When LLMs Learn to Breathe -- Multi-Objective Arbitration for ARDS Ventilation	arxiv 2026-06-03	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.62	Waypoints Matter: A Systematic Study for Sampling-Based Trajectory Planning	arxiv 2026-06-04	242_026 Rocket point-to-point travel will win over hyperloop due to Starship launch cadence Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	38%
0.62	Waypoints Matter: A Systematic Study for Sampling-Based Trajectory Planning	arxiv 2026-06-04	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.62	Attitude-Aided Linear Calibration of Triaxial Accelerometers	arxiv 2026-06-04	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.62	Synthetic Data Generation and Vision-based Wrinkle and Keypoint Detection for Bimanual Cloth Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-04	248_042 A sewing robot already exists; logistics robots will automate trillion-dollar stitching industry. Salim Ismail	Robotics	39%
0.62	Breaking Time: A Fully Gaussian Framework for Distributed and Continuous-Time SLAM	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	TAGA: Terrain-aware Active Gaze Learning for Generalizable Agile Humanoid Locomotion	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.62	What Can Eye Gaze Teach Us About Real-World Cycling? Insights From the Oxford RobotCycle Project	arxiv 2026-06-03	229_029 Humanoid robots could become safer than humans by a large margin, similar to autonomous cars. Brett Adcock	Robotics	33%
0.62	MAD: Mapping-Aware World Models for Agile Quadrotor Flight	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.62	Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06?(market prob: 65%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.62	Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Will the S&P500 be down greater than 1% in a week?(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-06-06	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Resolution criteria mandatory for Yes/No markets on 09/09/2026?(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-06-06	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.62	Will Apple TV+ launch in Romania tommorow at WWDC 2026?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-06-07	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.62	Will Brent crude oil settle at or above $100/barrel on any trading day before July 1, 2026?(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-06-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will I get a 32768 tile in 2048 at MOP 2026?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-06-07	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.62	facebookresearch/detectron2 v0.4	github_release 2021-03-13	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.62	facebookresearch/detectron2 v0.1.1	github_release 2020-03-05	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.62	Whisper Hallucination Detection and Mitigation via Hidden Representation Steering and Sparse AutoEncoders	arxiv 2026-06-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	Planning-aligned Token Compression for Long-Context Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-05	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.62	MetaConfigurator: AI-Assisted RDF Authoring from JSON Data	arxiv 2026-06-05	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.62	dots.tts Technical Report	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.62	Front-to-Attractors: Modifying the Front-to-Front Heuristic in Bidirectional Search	arxiv 2026-06-05	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	Quantum-Inspired Trace-Augmented Evidence Selection for Reasoning over Structured Hypothesis Spaces	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Accelerated Decentralized Stochastic Gradient Descent for Strongly Convex Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-05	234_003 Within 1-2 years we will look back and wonder why training was centralized while inference was decentralized Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.62	Second-Order Path Kernel Interpolation Formulas in Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-06-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	CoMetaPNS: Continually Meta-learning Personalized Neural Surrogates for Cardiac Electrophysiology Simulations	arxiv 2026-06-05	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.62	Sparsely gated tiny linear experts	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Unified Geometry-Guided ML-FTLE for Tracking Transient Chaos from Scalar Time Series	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.62	Dash2Sim: Closed-Loop Driving Simulation from in-the-wild Dashcam Videos	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	SigmaScale: LLM Compression with SVD-based Low-Rank Decomposition and Learned Scaling Matrices	arxiv 2026-06-05	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	Bias in Filter Feature Selection Evaluation: A Meta-Analysis of Datasets, Baselines, and Experimental Design Choices	arxiv 2026-06-05	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.62	Hierarchical Forecast Reconciliation for Urban Rail Transit Demand Prediction under Operational Disruptions	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Hierarchical Forecast Reconciliation for Urban Rail Transit Demand Prediction under Operational Disruptions	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.62	Data-Constrained Language Model Pretraining: Improved Regularization and Scaling Laws	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Evidence-Grounded Ensemble Diagnosis of 802.11 Packet Captures: A Multi-Stage Pipeline with Deterministic Reliability Scoring	arxiv 2026-06-05	AI_028 Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey's launch of Bitchat — will become critical infrastructure for verifiable human communication as the internet is flooded with synthetic content and deep... Jack Dorsey	Crypto	28%
0.62	Sycophantic Praise: Evaluating Excessive Praise in Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	MMAE: A Massive Multitask Audio Editing Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.62	Modeling semantic association in self-paced reading with language model embeddings	arxiv 2026-06-05	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.62	Translate-R1: Cost-Aware Translation Tool Use via Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Test-Time Trajectory Optimization for Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-05	AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.62	Predictive Style Matching: Natural and Robust Humanoid Locomotion	arxiv 2026-06-05	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.62	A Cross-view Fusion Framework for Robust 6-DoF Grasp Pose Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 7?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.62	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Best meme competition : Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 351(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-08	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.62	Will I (Mitpro) reach Expert in Codeforces again before July 1st(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-06-08	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.62	FDA NDA022334: AFINITOR (EVEROLIMUS) — NOVARTIS	fda 2026-06-01	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	87%
0.62	FDA ANDA206228: ARSENIC TRIOXIDE (ARSENIC TRIOXIDE) — ZYDUS PHARMS	fda 2026-06-02	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	FDA BLA761480: RANLUSPEC (RANIBIZUMAB-HKDZ) — LUPIN LIMITED	fda 2026-06-02	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	—	10%
0.62	Will Jesus return on November 25 2026(market prob: 1%)	manifold 2026-06-08	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.62	Bandits for Efficient Experimentation: Adapting to Control Group, Preferences, and Context Drifts	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	LLM-Orchestrated Conformance Checking in Stroke Care Without Computer-Interpretable Guidelines	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_025 The legal profession must transition from viewing AI as a 'prompter' to an active 'partner' — when an autonomous AI consultant hallucinates legal precedent or medical diagnosis, traditional corporate malpractice frameworks fail; courts must rapidly est... Ralph Losey	Other	77%
0.62	Physics-Guided Sequence-Based Generative Framework for Acoustic Metamaterial Inverse Design	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Unveiling Privacy Risks in Multi-modal Large Language Models: Task-specific Vulnerabilities and Mitigation Challenges	arxiv 2026-06-08	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	SafeRun: Enabling Determinism in LLM Planning for Running	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	LATTEArena: An Evaluation Framework for LLM-powered Tabular Feature Engineering (Extended Version)	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	A Resilience-as-a-Service assessment framework for coordinated disruption response in interdependent urban transit systems	arxiv 2026-06-07	CYB_030 Deploying agentic processing capabilities directly into orbit via the Vera Rubin Space-1 Module eliminates terrestrial data-routing bottlenecks but introduces extreme engineering challenges — dissipating computational heat purely through thermal radiat... Jensen Huang	Space	33%
0.62	Assessing Sample Quality in Conditional Generation under Compositional Shift	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.62	Streaming Interventions: Can Video Large Language Models Correct Mistakes as They Occur?	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Report the Floor: A Training-Free Conformal Interval Is a Mandatory Baseline for Probabilistic Time-Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.62	Benchmarking Empirical Privacy Protection for Adaptations of Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_014 Most profound impacts of autonomous AI originate NOT from closed proprietary models within multi-billion-dollar corporate data centers, but from globally distributed open-source models — open-weight parity with frontier systems enables any individual o... Emad Mostaque	AI	53%
0.62	Distilling Safe LLM Systems via Soft Prompts for On Device Settings	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	PBSD: Privileged Bayesian Self-Distillation for Long-Horizon Credit Assignment	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.62	Orange Lab: Lowering Barriers to Data Mining through Embedded Interactive Workflows	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	MilliVid: Hierarchical Latents for Long-Range Consistency in Video Generation	arxiv 2026-06-08	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.62	Activation Steering Induces Emergent Misalignment: A More Comprehensive Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Reinforcement Learning for Flow-Matching Policies with Density Transport	arxiv 2026-06-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Interpretable Crisis Behavior Analysis Using Mobility and Social Media Data	arxiv 2026-06-08	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.62	Toward Signing Activity Projection in Sign Language Interaction	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	A retrieval conditioned rebinding circuit for dynamic entity tracking in large language models	arxiv 2026-06-07	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.62	Sycophancy as a Multilingual Alignment Failure: How Safety Degrades Across Languages, Topics, and Models	arxiv 2026-06-07	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.62	Segment-level Tree Search for Long Meeting Document Summarization	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	DexPIE: Stable Dexterous Policy Improvement from Real-World Experience	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	FDA ANDA216772: BRIMONIDINE TARTRATE (BRIMONIDINE TARTRATE) — UPSHER SMITH LABS	fda 2026-06-05	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 10?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-12-26	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.62	TRACE: A Unified Rollout Budget Allocation Framework for Efficient Agentic Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.62	FADA: Accessible fetal ultrasound interpretation and annotation with a selectively distilled unified vision-language model	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Diffusion Forcing Planner: History-Annealed Planning with Time-Dependent Guidance for Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-09	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.62	RAT: Reference-Augmented Training for ASV Anti-Spoofing	arxiv 2026-06-09	232_033 Cryptographically strong authentication is the only security technique that will work going forward; biometrics/replay-vulnerable methods won't. Ben Horowitz	AI	48%
0.62	Janus: A Benchmark for Goal-Conditioned Information Distortion in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.62	Flexible Flows for Biological Sequence Design	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.62	Supervised Fine-tuning with Synthetic Rationale Data Hurts Real-World Disease Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_006 Expert-level AI applied to biology/medicine will yield cures for cancer and Alzheimer's within 5-10 years, compressing a century of progress into a decade. Dario Amodei	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.62	When to Align, When to Predict: A Phase Diagram for Multimodal Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.62	OncoTraj: a public benchmark for longitudinal resistance prediction in EGFR-mutant non-small-cell lung cancer on osimertinib	arxiv 2026-06-09	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	Overcoming Rank Collapse in Feedback Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-09	230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.62	Do Transformers Actually Help Intrusion Detection? A Temporal Sequence Evaluation on CIC-IDS2017	arxiv 2026-06-09	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.62	Ambiguous Strategic Classification	arxiv 2026-06-08	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.62	Importance-Aware Scheduling for High-Dimensional Hyperparameter Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	It Takes One to Bias Them All: Breaking Bad with One-Shot GRPO	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Recovering the Zipfian Distribution in Unsupervised Term Discovery	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	TacForeSight: Force-Guided Tactile World Model for Contact-Rich Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	AgenticNav: Zero-Shot Vision-and-Language Navigation as a Tool-Calling Harness	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	GuideWalk: Learning Unified Autonomous Navigation and Locomotion for Humanoid Robots across Versatile Terrains	arxiv 2026-06-09	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.62	FDA ANDA211187: MACITENTAN (MACITENTAN) — TEVA PHARMS USA INC	fda 2026-06-08	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	By when will Amazon Prime Air (drone delivery) be available in every state?	manifold 2026-06-11	243_030 Multimodal delivery network will emerge: drones, sidewalk robots, bike-lane robots Dara Khosrowshahi	Robotics	31%
0.62	Which of ThePrimeagen’s "Token Apocalypse" predictions will happen first?	manifold 2026-06-11	232_030 AI banks will emerge; AI will be full economic actor supported by crypto-based new banks and money. Ben Horowitz	Crypto	48%