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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.63	SkillBrew: Multi-Objective Curation of Skill Banks for LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.63	Beyond Bilingual Transfer: Multilingual Code-Switching in Instruction Tuning	arxiv 2026-05-28	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.63	FDA NDA008085: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — STRIDES PHARMA INTL	fda 2026-05-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	FDA ANDA212438: CLINDAMYCIN PHOSPHATE (CLINDAMYCIN PHOSPHATE) — ENCUBE	fda 2026-05-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-23	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on June 1?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on June 1?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.63	[snigus] Will I convince Destiny that managing AI-risk should be in top 2 policy priority of his?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-31	247_053 AI's largest risk to Bitcoin is irrelevance via AI agents not using it Alex Wissner-Gross	Crypto	38%
0.63	openai/openai-python v2.39.0	github_release 2026-06-01	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 4?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 5?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Am I a brain in a vat?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-01	240_052 Uploading consciousness (whole brain emulation) really will be you in the future Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	41%
0.63	Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc (SPCE) (CIK 0001706946)	edgar_8k 2026-06-02	SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.63	AdaCodec: A Predictive Visual Code for Video MLLMs	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Initialization is Half the Battle: Generating Diverse Images from a Guidance Potential Posterior	arxiv 2026-06-01	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Food Noise & False Safety: A Systematic Evaluation of How LLMs Fail to Adapt to Eating Disorder Queries with Clinician Feedback	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_019 Physical intervention (literally unplugging data centers) may be required once AI agents begin communicating in proprietary, non-human-decipherable languages. Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	16%
0.63	A Mathematical Conflict Framework for Contextual Data Modulation	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	A Mathematical Conflict Framework for Contextual Data Modulation	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.63	On the Generalization in Topology Optimization via Sensitivity-Conditioned Bernoulli Flow Matching	arxiv 2026-06-01	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	Jailbreaking Multimodal Large Language Models using Multi-Clip Video	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	BADGER: Bridging Agentic and Deterministic Evaluation for Generative Enterprise Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.63	Multilinguality of Large Language Models From a Structural Perspective	arxiv 2026-06-01	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.63	Multilinguality of Large Language Models From a Structural Perspective	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	Argument Collapse: LLMs Flatten Long-Form Public Debate	arxiv 2026-06-01	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.63	Fair Finetuning Mitigates Distribution Inference Attacks	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_059 Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds. Alex Finn	AI	62%
0.63	TechGraphRAG: An Agentic Graph-Augmented RAG Framework for Technical Literature Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	ProbMoE: Differentiable Probabilistic Routing for Mixture-of-Experts	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.63	Hierarchical Online Prompt Mutation with Dual-Loop Feedback for Guardrailed Evidence Document Generation: A Production-Evaluation Case Study	arxiv 2026-05-31	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	ProtoAda: Prototype-Guided Adaptive Adapter Expansion and Geometric Consolidation for Multimodal Continual Instruction Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-01	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Regularized Large Neighborhood Search	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Identifiable Markov Switching Models with Instantaneous Effects and Exponential Families	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.63	Model Multiplicity and Predictive Arbitrariness in Recidivism Risk Assessment	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	HMPO: Hybrid Median-length Policy Optimization for Chain-of-Thought Compression	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	An Algebraic View of the Expressivity of Recurrent Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-01	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Decentralized Instruction Tuning: Conflict-Aware Splitting and Weight Merging	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.63	IstGPT: LLM-based Anomaly Detection for Spatial-Temporal Graph in Industrial Systems	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.63	Mitigating Bias in Locally Constrained Decoding via Tractable Proposals	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	UniD$^3$: A Knowledge Graph-Enhanced RAG Framework for Drug-Disease Discovery and Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-31	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.63	Connecting the Dots: Benchmarking Reflective Memory in Long-Horizon Dialogue	arxiv 2026-05-31	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Child-directed speech facilitates production, not comprehension, in BabyLMs	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.63	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.2.1	github_release 2021-07-30	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5?(market prob: 34%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will CDT RealOruro win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.63	Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) (CIK 0001730168)	edgar_8k 2026-06-03	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.63	Bristow Group Inc. (VTOL) (CIK 0001525221)	edgar_8k 2026-06-03	AUT_023 Urban air mobility (eVTOL) market will generate $29 billion by 2030, scaling exponentially to over $1 trillion by 2040 — ~35x growth over 10 years as regulatory certification, manufacturing capacity, and urban vertiport infrastructure mature. Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?(market prob: 70%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.63	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?(market prob: 82%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8?(market prob: 27%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7?(market prob: 76%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Code2LoRA: Hypernetwork-Generated Adapters for Code Language Models under Software Evolution	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	Regret Minimization with Adaptive Opponents in Repeated Games	arxiv 2026-06-04	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	Multi-ResNets for Subspace Preconditioning in Constrained Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Learning to replenish: A hybrid deep reinforcement learning for dynamic inventory management in the pharmaceutical supply chains	arxiv 2026-06-04	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.63	On Advantage Estimates for Max@K Policy Gradients	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	EGTR-Review: Efficient Evidence-Grounded Scientific Peer Review Generation via Multi-Agent Teacher Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	PLAN-S: Bridging Planning with Latent Style Dynamics for Autonomous Driving World Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.63	LadderMan: Learning Humanoid Perceptive Ladder Climbing	arxiv 2026-06-04	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.63	Next-Generation Parallel Decoder for LPDR: Architectural Optimization and Class-Balanced GAN-Augmentation	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	ViCuR: Visual Cues as Recoverable Privilege for Multimodal On-Policy Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Seeing Time: Benchmarking Chronological Reasoning and Shortcut Biases in Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	When New Generators Arrive: Lifelong Machine-Generated Text Attribution via Ridge Feature Transfer	arxiv 2026-06-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Multilingual Fine-Tuning via Localized Gradient Conflict Resolution	arxiv 2026-06-04	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	DNQ: Deep Nash Q-Network for Partially Observable n-Player Games	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	The Post-GCN Decade Revisited: Curvature-Stratified Evaluation of Relational Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Diffusion Models Observe Only Gradients: A Geometric Perspective on Score Matching Errors	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	IR3DE: A Linear Router for Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.63	SALT: When More Rollouts Don't Help in Group-Based Policy Optimization and How to Make Them Matter	arxiv 2026-06-04	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	Causal Modeling of Selection in Evolution	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.63	SHALA-LLM: Smartly Handling Ambiguous Labels in Aligning LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-03	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	Multi-task Learning is Not Enough: Representational Entanglement in Dual-output Second Language Speech Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	What's in a Name? Morphological Shortcuts by LLMs in Pharmacology	arxiv 2026-06-04	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	ReasoningFlow: Discourse Structures for Understanding LLM Reasoning Traces	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Boosting Self-Consistency with Ranking	arxiv 2026-06-03	230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.63	Validity Threats for Foundation Model Research	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	Read What You Hear: Reference-Free Hypotheses Evaluation with Acoustic Discrepancy	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.63	Flow-based Policy Adaptation without Policy Updates	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.63	MotionDisco: Motion Discovery for Extreme Humanoid Loco-Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-04	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.63	Gotta Grow Fast: Design and Benchmarking of a Tip Mount for High-Speed Vine Robots	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Discrete-WAM: Unified Discrete Vision-Action Token Editing for World-Policy Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	MoDex: A Diffusion Policy for Sequential Multi-Object Dexterous Grasping	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_013 'Unsupervised' Tesla Robotaxis will achieve operational capability across 25-50% of the United States by end of 2026 — initial production slow but deployment scales to capture multi-trillion-dollar transportation market. Humanoid robots (Optimus) event... Elon Musk	Auto/Transport	15%
0.63	X4Val: Learning Neural Surrogates for Variance-Reduced Policy Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-03	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	What Can Eye Gaze Teach Us About Real-World Cycling? Insights From the Oxford RobotCycle Project	arxiv 2026-06-03	231_020 Smart glasses with face recognition will become part of normative culture (peer pressure forces opt-in). Dave Blundin	Consumer	50%
0.63	Inverse Manipulation through Symbolic Planning and Residual Operator Learning	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	SoftPINCH: EMG-Driven Soft Exoskeleton Assistance for Finger Flexion and Grasping	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	MineXplore: An Open-Source Reinforcement Learning Exploration Benchmark for GNSS-Denied Underground Environment	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	GENEB: Why Genomic Models Are Hard to Compare	arxiv 2026-06-03	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.63	FDA NDA209803: STEGLATRO (ERTUGLIFLOZIN) — MSD SUB MERCK	fda 2026-06-03	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 7?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Resolution criteria mandatory for Yes/No markets on 09/09/2026?(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-06-06	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 8?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?(market prob: 95%)	polymarket 2026-01-15	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8?(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	facebookresearch/differentiable-robot-model v0.2.3	github_release 2022-04-22	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.63	Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 1-7?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.63	Whisper Hallucination Detection and Mitigation via Hidden Representation Steering and Sparse AutoEncoders	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Do Coding Agents Deceive Us? Detecting and Preventing Cheating via Capped Evaluation with Randomized Tests	arxiv 2026-06-05	SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. Jensen Huang	AI/Manufacturing	75%
0.63	Where Rectified Flows Leak: Characterising Membership Signals Along the Interpolation Path	arxiv 2026-06-05	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Native3D: End-to-End 3D Scene Generation via Unified Mesh-Texture Modeling and Semantic Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	On the Geometry of On-Policy Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	When is 3D Worth It? A Resource-Performance Frontier for CNNs and Transformers in Lung CT	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	Didact: A Cross-Domain Capability Discovery System for Defence	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_005 Fundamental convergence between autonomous AI, enterprise software, and global defense infrastructure — future geopolitical supremacy dictated entirely by algorithmic dominance rather than traditional kinetic military assets; autonomous drones, AI-driv... Ben Horowitz	Defense	73%
0.63	CoMetaPNS: Continually Meta-learning Personalized Neural Surrogates for Cardiac Electrophysiology Simulations	arxiv 2026-06-05	248_028 Personalized AI-designed medicine stories will repeat until it's n=10 billion. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	42%
0.63	Network Recovery from Cascade Data: A Debiased Jacobian-Based Machine Learning Approach	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.63	Unified Geometry-Guided ML-FTLE for Tracking Transient Chaos from Scalar Time Series	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	TrioPose: Native Triple-Stream Diffusion Transformers for Pose-Guided Text-to-Image Generation	arxiv 2026-06-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Uniform Stability and Generalization Error of GD and SGD on Fixed-Point Parameters	arxiv 2026-06-05	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.63	Data-Constrained Language Model Pretraining: Improved Regularization and Scaling Laws	arxiv 2026-06-05	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.63	Principles of Concept Representation in Sentence Encoders	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	LARA: Latent Action Representation Alignment for Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	Extending Responsibility-Sensitive Safety for the Assessment of Offloaded Autonomous Driving Services	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_014 Most profound impacts of autonomous AI originate NOT from closed proprietary models within multi-billion-dollar corporate data centers, but from globally distributed open-source models — open-weight parity with frontier systems enables any individual o... Emad Mostaque	AI	53%
0.63	LIMMT: Less is More for Motion Tracking	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.63	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 7?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 8?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Almost Certainly Free Mana: All Options Resolves to YES Except Last Traded Option (you can add answers)	manifold 2026-06-09	247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Will Jesus return on November 25 2026(market prob: 1%)	manifold 2026-06-08	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.63	AHA-WAM:Asynchronous Horizon-Adaptive World-Action Modeling with Observation-Guided Context Routing	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.63	Bandits for Efficient Experimentation: Adapting to Control Group, Preferences, and Context Drifts	arxiv 2026-06-08	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.63	End-to-End Context Compression at Scale	arxiv 2026-06-08	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	FuseFSS: Efficient Secure LLM Inference with Function Secret Sharing	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	FuseFSS: Efficient Secure LLM Inference with Function Secret Sharing	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	A Finetuned SpeechLLM for Joint Multi-Granular L2 Assessment and Natural-Language Rationales	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Can Data Work be Reparative?	arxiv 2026-06-08	233_017 Reskilling using AI technology will be fundamentally critical for workforce. Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.63	Culturally-Adapted Red-Teaming Across East and Southeast Asian Contexts: A Methodological and Comparative Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-08	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.63	FlashMemory-DeepSeek-V4: Lightning Index Ultra-Long Context via Lookahead Sparse Attention	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_040 AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant global memory suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). Samsung executives	Semis/Memory	62%
0.63	TRIAGE: Dialectical Reasoning for Explainable Risk Prediction on Irregularly Sampled Medical Time Series with LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis	AI	60%
0.63	PAI: Preserving Amplitude Information in Representation-Based Time-Series Anomaly Detection	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.63	FAME: Forecastability-Aware Mixture of Experts for Heterogeneous Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	A Resilience-as-a-Service assessment framework for coordinated disruption response in interdependent urban transit systems	arxiv 2026-06-07	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.63	STAR: Rethinking MoE Routing as Structure-Aware Subspace Learning	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Q-Delta: Beyond Key-Value Associative State Evolution	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Structure-Conditioned Actor-Critic Branches for Quality-Diversity Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	Discovering Functionally Selective Brain Regions with a Deep Topographic Multimodal Model	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	What the Eyes See, the LLMs Miss: Exploiting Human Perception for Adversarial Text Attacks	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.63	Loss-Guided Adaptive Scale Refinement for Molecular Force Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Operator learning for solving Fokker-Planck equations with various initial conditions	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.63	Stabilizing On-Policy Distillation for MLLM Reasoning with Global Normalization	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	Families of Control-Cost-Parametrized Inverse-Optimal Universal Stabilizers	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	LEAF: A Learning-Enabled ADMM Framework for Accelerated Convex Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Synthetic but Not Realistic: The Evaluation Challenge in Generative Modelling for Structured Electronic Medical Records	arxiv 2026-06-08	238_022 From here forward, training data will be synthetic (pre-training era of human internet data is over) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.63	Bayesian Optimization of a Multi-Product Chemical Reactor Using Composite Models and Partial Physics Knowledge	arxiv 2026-06-07	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.63	Causally Evaluating the Learnability of Formal Language Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	Is Text All You Need? Text as a Universal Information Bottleneck for Speech LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.63	Back on Track: Aligning Rewards and States for Reasoning in Diffusion Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	When Correct Decisions Hide Internal Stress: Decision-State Probing in Multimodal Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Towards End to End Motion Planning and Execution for Autonomous Underwater Vehicles Using Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Detector Resolution and Observable Infrared Memory in QED	arxiv 2026-06-07	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 10?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 10?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 10?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	How many secret Lairs will come out in 2027	manifold 2026-06-10	COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	33%
0.63	Hidden Consensus:Preference-Validity Compression in Human Feedback	arxiv 2026-06-09	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.63	Vision-Assisted Foundation Model for Solving Multi-Task Vehicle Routing Problems	arxiv 2026-06-09	243_030 Multimodal delivery network will emerge: drones, sidewalk robots, bike-lane robots Dara Khosrowshahi	Robotics	31%
0.63	Instruction Finetuning DeepSeek-R1-8B Model Using LoRA and NEFTune	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Making Time Editable in Video Diffusion Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.63	When to Align, When to Predict: A Phase Diagram for Multimodal Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.63	Algorithmic and Minimax Complexities in Kernel Bandits	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	OncoTraj: a public benchmark for longitudinal resistance prediction in EGFR-mutant non-small-cell lung cancer on osimertinib	arxiv 2026-06-09	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.63	How Does Reasoning Flow? Tracing Attention-Induced Information Flow for Targeted RL in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.63	Trading Utility for Dynamic Fairness in Multiple Resource Division with Sequential Demand	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.63	Trading Utility for Dynamic Fairness in Multiple Resource Division with Sequential Demand	arxiv 2026-06-09	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	Parallel Causal Associative Fields: Gated Sparse Memory for Long-Context Language Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.63	Alignment Defends LLMs from Property Inference Attacks	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_059 Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds. Alex Finn	AI	62%
0.63	Decision-Calibrated Conformal Uncertainty for Pacing Decisions in Streaming Advertising	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Decision-Calibrated Conformal Uncertainty for Pacing Decisions in Streaming Advertising	arxiv 2026-06-08	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.63	Decision-Making under Combinatorial Risk	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	VFUSE: Virulent Feature Understanding with Sparse autoEncoders	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.63	Data Journalist Agent: Transforming Data into Verifiable Multimodal Stories	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.63	Data Journalist Agent: Transforming Data into Verifiable Multimodal Stories	arxiv 2026-06-09	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.63	Do Vision-Language Models See or Guess? Measuring and Reducing Textual-Prior Reliance with a Phrasing-Controlled Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-09	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.63	TabClaw: An Interactive and Self-Evolving Agent for Spreadsheet Manipulation and Table Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	JOIN: Anchor-Grasp-Conditioned Joining via Opposition, Inference, and Navigation for Bimanual Assistive Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-09	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 12?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 12?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 11?(market prob: 36%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 12?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.63	Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.63	Which of ThePrimeagen’s "Token Apocalypse" predictions will happen first?	manifold 2026-06-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.63	Will June 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-06-08	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	35%
0.63	Will June 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-06-08	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	35%
0.63	Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) (CIK 0001730168)	edgar_8k 2026-06-11	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.63	CATERPILLAR INC (CAT) (CIK 0000018230)	edgar_8k 2026-06-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc (SPCE) (CIK 0001706946)	edgar_8k 2026-06-10	SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.63	SPEA2$^+$: Improved Density Estimation in SPEA2 with Provable Runtime Guarantees	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	CHORUS: Decentralized Multi-Embodiment Collaboration with One VLA Policy	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	nD-RoPE: A Generalized RoPE for n-Dimensional Position Embedding	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Runtime Enforcement of Hybrid System Properties	arxiv 2026-06-10	231_027 Algorithmic arbitration with cryptographic verification will create programmable governments. Salim Ismail	Other	44%
0.63	Categorical Prior Lock-in: Why In-Context Learning Fails for Structured Data	arxiv 2026-06-10	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	Reason, Then Re-reason: Cross-view Revisiting Improves Spatial Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Runtime Skill Audit: Targeted Runtime Probing for Agent Skill Security	arxiv 2026-06-10	231_027 Algorithmic arbitration with cryptographic verification will create programmable governments. Salim Ismail	Other	44%
0.63	Model-Based and Data-Driven Hierarchical Control and Topology Co-Design for Robust Networked Systems	arxiv 2026-06-10	INF_058 The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized solar + residential/commercial battery storage will shift power management toward microgrids where local DNOs optimize autonomously, turning millions of ho... Andrew Yang	Energy	52%
0.63	Modelling magnetic material properties with uncertainty-aware neural networks	arxiv 2026-06-10	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	MemNovo: Look Back at the Spectrum for Balanced De Novo Peptide Sequencing from Mass Spectrometry	arxiv 2026-06-10	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.63	Phi-Actor-Critic: Steering General-Sum Games to Pareto-Efficient Correlated Equilibria	arxiv 2026-06-09	238_037 Network effects, economics, and game theory will persist in AI agent economy (no singleton takeover) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	Measuring Epistemic Resilience of LLMs Under Misleading Medical Context	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Reassessing High-Performing LLMs on Polish Medical Exams: True Competence or Bias-Driven Performance?	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis	AI	60%
0.63	UniReason-Med: A Shared Grounded Reasoning Interface for 2D-to-3D Transfer in Medical VQA	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	Evaluating Bias in Phoneme-Based Automatic Speech Recognition Systems: An Analysis of IPA Transcription Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Adversarial Attacks on Learned Policies for Surgical Robotic Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 13?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13?(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.63	Evaluation Sovereignty in Metadata-Driven Classification: A Multi-Track Framework for Weakly Supervised Information Systems	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.63	PolyFlow: Safe and Efficient Polytope-Constrained Flow Matching with Constraint Embedding and Projection-free Update	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	Towards Personalized Federated Learning for Dysarthric Speech Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	A Minimal Model of Bounded Trade-Off Screening in Multi-Attribute Choice	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.63	ARMOR-MAD: Adaptive Routing for Heterogeneous Multi-Agent Debate in Large Language Model Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-11	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.63	Constructing Evaluation Datasets for Procedural Reasoning: Balancing Naturalness, Grounding, and Multi-Hop Coverage	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.63	Prefill Awareness in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.63	Rethinking Psychometric Evaluation of LLMs: When and Why Self-Reports Predict Behavior	arxiv 2026-06-10	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	Hölder++: Improving the Quality-Coherence Trade-off in Multimodal VAEs	arxiv 2026-06-11	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.63	Authority, Truth, and Citation Bias: A Large-Scale Multi-Domain Benchmark for Studying Epistemic Susceptibility in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	A green solvent screening tool for emerging materials via uncertainty aware, transformer enhanced transfer learning	arxiv 2026-06-11	INF_060 Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive paradigm shift away from lithium as the sole foundational element of global energy storage. Elon Musk	Energy	42%
0.63	A solvable model for unsupervised federated learning	arxiv 2026-06-11	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	DeepJEB++: Foundation Model-Driven Large-Scale 3D Engineering Dataset via 2D Latent Space Augmentation	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	DeepJEB++: Foundation Model-Driven Large-Scale 3D Engineering Dataset via 2D Latent Space Augmentation	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	EPM-JEPA: Operator-Side Experience Modulation in JEPA-Family World Models	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Multi-Bitwidth Quantization for LLMs Using Additive Codebooks	arxiv 2026-06-11	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.63	Fed-FBD: Federated Functional Block Diversification for Isolation, Privacy, and Surgical Unlearning	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.63	Beyond Uniform Tokens: Adaptive Compression for Time Series Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-11	240_033 AI will compress decades of research into years, months, weeks Salim Ismail	AI	42%
0.63	SafeLLM: Extraction as a Hallucination-Resistant Alternative to Rewriting in Safety-Critical Settings	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Helping Figures Tell their Story! Paper-Grounded Video Generation Explaining Complex Scientific Figures	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Low cost, easily manufactured, highly flexible strain and touch sensitive fiber for robotics applications	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	AIR-VLA+: Decoupling Movement and Manipulation via Cascaded Dual-Action Decoders with Asymmetric MoE for Aerial Robots	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	FDA ANDA064050: CLINDAMYCIN PHOSPHATE (CLINDAMYCIN PHOSPHATE) — PADAGIS US	fda 2026-06-10	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14?(market prob: 63%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.63	Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-06-14	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.63	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15?(market prob: 77%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.63	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15?(market prob: 77%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.63	Claude 6 Release Date	manifold 2026-06-14	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.63	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-08-07	247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor	Crypto	48%
0.63	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross	Crypto	26%
0.63	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	235_001 Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.63	Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.63	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross	Crypto	26%
0.63	Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.63	Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.63	Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-10	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.63	Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.63	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-04-28	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.63	Will Labour announce a leadership election before [date]	manifold 2026-04-27	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.63	Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2025-12-10	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2025-12-10	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.63		gdelt 2026-04-30	248_003 SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 satellites. Peter Diamandis	Space	79%
0.63	alphabet supera expectativas de vendas com forca do google cloud e clientes de inteligencia artificial.ghtml	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63		gdelt 2026-04-30	238_052 $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) Elon Musk	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.63	ki infrastruktur treibt speicherpreise auf rekordhoehen 899723	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley	Macro/Economy	67%
0.63		gdelt 2026-04-30	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.63	kforce inc q1 2026 earnings 123000580.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.63		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.63	17000538	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.63	Trump out as President by May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.63	US Gas Price on May 1 2026?	manifold 2026-04-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.63	will i get a medal at the IPO 2026?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-04-30	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 2?(market prob: 27%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.63	Will Apple announce Gemini-powered Siri features at WWDC 2026 (June 8-12)?(market prob: 73%)	manifold 2026-05-01	238_027 OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-01	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 3?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.63	Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.63	Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs SPARTA (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.63	Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.63	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-03	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz on any week in 2026?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-04	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.63	Will GameStop buy / aquire eBay until end of 2026?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-05-04	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.63	Will I have a market with more than 21 traders in May?(market prob: 85%)	manifold 2026-05-04	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.63	I go through the scaling book this week?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-05-04	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.63	Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	79%
0.63	Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.63	Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.63	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-05	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.63	Navitas Semiconductor Corp (NVTS) (CIK 0001821769)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.63	Tempus AI, Inc. (TEM) (CIK 0001717115)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.63	Navitas Semiconductor Corp (NVTS) (CIK 0001821769)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.63	openai/openai-python v2.30.0	github_release 2026-03-25	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	openai/openai-python v2.24.0	github_release 2026-02-24	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.63	openai/openai-python v2.9.0	github_release 2025-12-04	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.63	huggingface/transformers v5.0.0rc1	github_release 2026-01-08	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.63	pytorch/pytorch v2.11.0	github_release 2026-03-23	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.63	pytorch/pytorch v1.10.0	github_release 2021-10-21	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	87%
0.63	Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-03-05	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Trump orders mandatory AI predeployment evals by end of August(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-06	S_AI_PAUSE_2026 Major-country AI pause beginning 2026	ai_regulatory_pause	5%
0.63	An Agent-Oriented Pluggable Experience-RAG Skill for Experience-Driven Retrieval Strategy Orchestration	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	Inconsistent Databases and Argumentation Frameworks with Collective Attacks	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.63	Correct Is Not Enough: Training Reasoning Planners with Executor-Grounded Rewards	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.63	MCJudgeBench: A Benchmark for Constraint-Level Judge Evaluation in Multi-Constraint Instruction Following	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.63	Agent-Based Modeling of Low-Emission Fertilizer Adoption for Dairy Farm Decarbonisation using Empirical Farm Data	arxiv 2026-05-05	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.63	DynaTab: Dynamic Feature Ordering as Neural Rewiring for High-Dimensional Tabular Data	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	DynaTab: Dynamic Feature Ordering as Neural Rewiring for High-Dimensional Tabular Data	arxiv 2026-05-05	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	Revisiting the Travel Planning Capabilities of Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	ARISE: A Repository-level Graph Representation and Toolset for Agentic Fault Localization and Program Repair	arxiv 2026-05-04	CYB_002 Despite raw agentic tool-use benchmarks tracking ahead of schedule, the enterprise reality involves significant operational friction — the 'integration schlep' — characterized by legacy software incompatibilities, rigid corporate bureaucracies, and per... Leopold Aschenbrenner	Macro/Economy	85%
0.63	Neuron-Anchored Rule Extraction for Large Language Models via Contrastive Hierarchical Ablation	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Compress Then Adapt? No, Do It Together via Task-aware Union of Subspaces	arxiv 2026-05-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Decoupled Guidance Diffusion for Adaptive Offline Safe Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-04	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.63	OphMAE: Bridging Volumetric and Planar Imaging with a Foundation Model for Adaptive Ophthalmological Diagnosis	arxiv 2026-05-04	AI_016 The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an AI experience curve enables bulk problem-solving across engineering, medicine, and mathematics at a fraction of historical compute costs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	82%
0.63	GEM-FI: Gated Evidential Mixtures with Fisher Modulation	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Tempered Guided Diffusion	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Pose Tracking with a Foundation Pose Model and an Ensemble Directional Kalman Filter	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Unsupervised Machine Learning for Detecting Structural Anomalies in European Regional Statistics	arxiv 2026-05-04	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.63	Trust, but Verify: Peeling Low-Bit Transformer Networks for Training Monitoring	arxiv 2026-05-04	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.63	Adaptive Interpolation-Synthesis for Motion In-Betweening on Keyframe-Based Animation	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Evaluating Reasoning Models for Queries with Presuppositions	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Mapping Discourse Reframing: A Multi-Layer Network Approach to Italian HPV Vaccine Discourse on X (2010-2024)	arxiv 2026-05-04	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	InfoLaw: Information Scaling Laws for Large Language Models with Quality-Weighted Mixture Data and Repetition	arxiv 2026-05-04	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	MolViBench: Evaluating LLMs on Molecular Vibe Coding	arxiv 2026-05-04	SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. Jensen Huang	AI/Manufacturing	75%
0.63	Sharpness-Aware Pretraining Mitigates Catastrophic Forgetting	arxiv 2026-05-04	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.63	ShapeGrasp: Simultaneous Visuo-Haptic Shape Completion and Grasping for Improved Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	FDA ANDA091291: LEVETIRACETAM (LEVETIRACETAM) — CHARTWELL RX	fda 2026-04-09	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.63	FDA ANDA091655: ESCITALOPRAM OXALATE (ESCITALOPRAM OXALATE) — MICRO LABS	fda 2026-04-22	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.63	FDA ANDA219072: CARBAMAZEPINE (CARBAMAZEPINE) — YICHANG HUMANWELL	fda 2026-04-17	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.63	facebookresearch/neuroai v0.1.0	github_release 2026-04-17	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.63	Text Corpora as Concept Fields: Black-Box Hallucination and Novelty Measurement	arxiv 2026-05-06	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	Text Corpora as Concept Fields: Black-Box Hallucination and Novelty Measurement	arxiv 2026-05-06	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.63	The Pinocchio Dimension: Phenomenality of Experience as the Primary Axis of LLM Psychometric Differences	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	UFAL-CUNI at SemEval-2026 Task 11: An Efficient Modular Neuro-symbolic Method for Syllogistic Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.63	Every Step Counts: Step-Level Credit Assignment for Tool-Integrated Text-to-SQL	arxiv 2026-05-06	CYB_017 Prompt engineering evolves into a specialized commerce vector — marketplaces (PromptBase-style) emerge where skilled practitioners sell highly optimized, reliable text descriptions; proving AI displaces execution but rewards precise instructional logic... David Holz	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.63	Harnessing Linguistic Dissimilarity for Language Generalization on Unseen Low-Resource Varieties	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Correct Is Not Enough: Training Reasoning Planners with Executor-Grounded Rewards	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.63	FDA ANDA218341: OXCARBAZEPINE (OXCARBAZEPINE) — UMEDICA LABS PVT	fda 2026-04-29	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.63	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.3.1	github_release 2024-03-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.2.3	github_release 2022-12-08	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.63	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.1.6	github_release 2020-09-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.1.6	github_release 2020-09-18	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.63	facebookresearch/faiss v1.8.0	github_release 2024-03-01	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.63	facebookresearch/faiss v1.7.2	github_release 2022-01-10	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	87%
0.63	facebookresearch/faiss v1.6.4	github_release 2020-10-22	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.63	facebookresearch/balance 0.18.0	github_release 2026-03-24	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.63	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.29	github_release 2024-12-27	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.63	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.27.post2	github_release 2024-07-26	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.63	Will this market close between 60% - 70%(market prob: 61%)	manifold 2026-05-07	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.63	Measuring Evaluation-Context Divergence in Open-Weight LLMs: A Paired-Prompt Protocol with Pilot Evidence of Alignment-Pipeline-Specific Heterogeneity	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.63	Attributions All the Way Down? The Metagame of Interpretability	arxiv 2026-05-07	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	Band Together: Untargeted Adversarial Training with Multimodal Coordination against Evasion-based Promotion Attacks	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.63	Price of Fairness in Short-Term and Long-Term Algorithmic Selections	arxiv 2026-05-07	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	Beyond Fixed Benchmarks and Worst-Case Attacks: Dynamic Boundary Evaluation for Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	Systematic Evaluation of Large Language Models for Post-Discharge Clinical Action Extraction	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Entropy-Regularized Adjoint Matching for Offline RL	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.63	VISD: Enhancing Video Reasoning via Structured Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Safety Certification is Classification	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Normalized Architectures are Natively 4-Bit	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Adding Thermal Awareness to Visual Systems in Real-Time via Distilled Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	TheraAgent: Self-Improving Therapeutic Agent for Precise and Comprehensive Treatment Planning	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	DBMSolver: A Training-free Diffusion Bridge Sampler for High-Quality Image-to-Image Translation	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.63	On the Safety of Graph Representation Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.63	Reconstruction or Semantics? What Makes a Latent Space Useful for Robotic World Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.63	One Algorithm, Two Goals: Dual Scoring for Parameter and Data Selection in LLM Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-05-07	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.63	DiBA: Diagonal and Binary Matrix Approximation for Neural Network Weight Compression	arxiv 2026-05-07	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.63	Towards Emotion Consistency Analysis of Large Language Models in Emotional Conversational Contexts	arxiv 2026-05-07	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	Towards Emotion Consistency Analysis of Large Language Models in Emotional Conversational Contexts	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	One Turn Too Late: Response-Aware Defense Against Hidden Malicious Intent in Multi-Turn Dialogue	arxiv 2026-05-07	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	One Turn Too Late: Response-Aware Defense Against Hidden Malicious Intent in Multi-Turn Dialogue	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Every Step Counts: Step-Level Credit Assignment for Tool-Integrated Text-to-SQL	arxiv 2026-05-06	CYB_017 Prompt engineering evolves into a specialized commerce vector — marketplaces (PromptBase-style) emerge where skilled practitioners sell highly optimized, reliable text descriptions; proving AI displaces execution but rewards precise instructional logic... David Holz	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.63	Maximal Controlled Invariant-MPC: Enhancing Feasibility and Reducing Conservatism through Terminal CBF Constraint in Safety-Critical Control	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	From Pixels to Tokens: A Systematic Study of Latent Action Supervision for Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-05-06	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	FDA ANDA217239: TORSEMIDE (TORSEMIDE) — MICRO LABS	fda 2026-05-01	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.63	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-08	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.63	Will April 2026 core CPI rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-05-10	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	35%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12?(market prob: 92%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 12?(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.63	Will any US brokerage support a third-party-operated user identity by the end of 2027?(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-05-11	247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross	Crypto	26%
0.63	Navitas Semiconductor Corp (NVTS) (CIK 0001821769)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 13?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-12	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.63	FDA BLA761291: TECVAYLI (TECLISTAMAB-CQYV) — JANSSEN BIOTECH	fda 2026-05-06	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.63	Will Polymarket launch its official token in 2026?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-13	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.63	Oil Price (WTI) today?	manifold 2026-05-13	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.63	Navitas Semiconductor Corp (NVTS) (CIK 0001821769)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.63	Tempus AI, Inc. (TEM) (CIK 0001717115)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.63	Elastic Attention Cores for Scalable Vision Transformers	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	Detecting overfitting in Neural Networks during long-horizon grokking using Random Matrix Theory	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.63	From Message-Passing to Linearized Graph Sequence Models	arxiv 2026-05-12	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	A New Technique for AI Explainability using Feature Association Map	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	Multi-Task Representation Learning for Conservative Linear Bandits	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	MULTI: Disentangling Camera Lens, Sensor, View, and Domain for Novel Image Generation	arxiv 2026-05-12	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Limits of Learning Linear Dynamics from Experiments	arxiv 2026-05-12	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.63	Assessment of cloud and associated radiation fields from a GAN stochastic cloud subcolumn generator	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	GEAR: Granularity-Adaptive Advantage Reweighting for LLM Agents via Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	Stop Marginalizing My Dreams: Model Inversion via Laplace Kernel for Continual Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	EPIC: Efficient Predicate-Guided Inference-Time Control for Compositional Text-to-Image Generation	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	FDA ANDA205807: GABAPENTIN (GABAPENTIN) — TEVA PHARMS USA	fda 2026-05-01	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.63	huggingface/transformers v5.8.1	github_release 2026-05-13	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.63	Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.63	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-14	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.63	Will Dogecoin reach 106% of its current price in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-14	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.63	Fortive Corp (FTV) (CIK 0001659166)	edgar_8k 2026-05-14	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Improving Reproducibility in Evaluation through Multi-Level Annotator Modeling	arxiv 2026-05-13	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.63	MILM: Large Language Models for Multimodal Irregular Time Series with Informative Sampling	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Beyond Perplexity: A Geometric and Spectral Study of Low-Rank Pre-Training	arxiv 2026-05-13	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.63	LoREnc: Low-Rank Encryption for Securing Foundation Models and LoRA Adapters	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Watermarking Should Be Treated as a Monitoring Primitive	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Ergodic Trajectory Design by Learned Pushforward Maps: Provable Coverage via Conditional Flow Matching	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	FeatCal: Feature Calibration for Post-Merging Models	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Understanding and Accelerating the Training of Masked Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-13	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.63	Implicit Behavioral Decoding from Next-Step Spike Forecasts at Population Scale	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Implicit Behavioral Decoding from Next-Step Spike Forecasts at Population Scale	arxiv 2026-05-13	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.63	\emph{DRIFT}: A Benchmark for Task-Free Continual Graph Learning with Continuous Distribution Shifts	arxiv 2026-05-13	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.63	F-GRPO: Factorized Group-Relative Policy Optimization for Unified Candidate Generation and Ranking	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	From Instance Selection to Fixed-Pool Data Recipe Search for Supervised Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	FDA BLA761100: ONTRUZANT (TRASTUZUMAB-DTTB) — SAMSUNG BIOEPIS CO LTD	fda 2026-04-15	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 16?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.63	Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.63	Eradicating Negative Transfer in Multi-Physics Foundation Models via Sparse Mixture-of-Experts Routing	arxiv 2026-05-14	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.63	Novel Dynamic Batch-Sensitive Adam Optimiser for Vehicular Accident Injury Severity Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Croissant Baker: Metadata Generation for Discoverable, Governable, and Reusable ML Datasets	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	Second-Order Actor-Critic Methods for Discounted MDPs via Policy Hessian Decomposition	arxiv 2026-05-14	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	Slot-MPC: Goal-Conditioned Model Predictive Control with Object-Centric Representations	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	REALM: Retrospective Encoder Alignment for LFP Modeling	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Compositional Sparsity as an Inductive Bias for Neural Architecture Design	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Crys-JEPA: Accelerating Crystal Discovery via Embedding Screening and Generative Refinement	arxiv 2026-05-14	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.63	ReMIA: a Powerful and Efficient Alternative to Membership Inference Attacks against Synthetic Data Generators	arxiv 2026-05-14	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.63	Large Dimensional Kernel Ridge Regression: Extending to Product Kernels	arxiv 2026-05-14	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	ROAD: Adaptive Data Mixing for Offline-to-Online Reinforcement Learning via Bi-Level Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Watch your neighbors: Training statistically accurate chaotic systems with local phase space information	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Paraphrasing Attack Resilience of Various AI-Generated Text Detection Methods	arxiv 2026-05-14	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	Mini-JEPA Foundation Model Fleet Enables Agentic Hydrologic Intelligence	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Mini-JEPA Foundation Model Fleet Enables Agentic Hydrologic Intelligence	arxiv 2026-05-13	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.63	FDA BLA761352: BIZENGRI (ZENOCUTUZUMAB-ZBCO) — MERUS N.V.	fda 2026-05-08	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.63	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-16	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.63	Will Hantavirus become a pandemic in 2026?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-05-17	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.63	Will AI psychosis make it into the DSM6?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-05-16	IND_009 Artificial Superintelligence arrives by roughly 2030 — shortly thereafter all human illnesses will be cured 'much sooner than we think'; mechanism: AI not just predicting protein structures but generating novel biological designs revolutionizing drug d... Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	19%
0.63	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 18?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 21?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-08-04	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.63	Will @jatloe make a comment on this market and @DottedCalculator responds NO to the qeustion that @jatloe made?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-05-18	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.63	Will ETH-USD close above $3,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-05-18	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.63	Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 20?(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.63	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 20?(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.63	Will Polymarket reimburse for the incorrect resolution on the crypto fund market?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-18	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.63	Will BTC-USD close below $90,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 95%)	manifold 2026-05-18	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.63	DashAttention: Differentiable and Adaptive Sparse Hierarchical Attention	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	When Outcome Looks Right But Discipline Fails: Trace-Based Evaluation Under Hidden Competitor State	arxiv 2026-05-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Self-supervised local learning rules learn the hidden hierarchical structure of high-dimensional data	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Probing for Representation Manifolds in Superposition	arxiv 2026-05-18	239_032 Progress in AI will continue as series of overlapping S-curves Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.63	Probing for Representation Manifolds in Superposition	arxiv 2026-05-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.63	Prompt2Fingerprint: Plug-and-Play LLM Fingerprinting via Text-to-Weight Generation	arxiv 2026-05-18	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.63	Generalized Functional ANOVA in Closed-Form: A Unified View of Additive Explanations	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Attacking the First-Principle: A Black-Box, Query-Free Targeted Mimicry Attack on Binary Function Classifiers	arxiv 2026-05-18	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.63	Are Sparse Autoencoder Benchmarks Reliable?	arxiv 2026-05-18	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.63	Long-horizon prediction of three-dimensional wall-bounded turbulence with CTA-Swin-UNet and resolvent analysis	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.63	SNLP: Layer-Parallel Inference via Structured Newton Corrections	arxiv 2026-05-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.63	Training Infinitely Deep and Wide Transformers	arxiv 2026-05-17	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.63	Training Infinitely Deep and Wide Transformers	arxiv 2026-05-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	When a Zero-Shooter Cheats: Improving Age Estimation via Activation Steering	arxiv 2026-05-17	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.63	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.103.1	github_release 2026-05-19	247_060 Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.63	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.63	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.63	Daily Coinflip(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.63	Will the Internet Computer Protocol token/coin (ICP) reach $3.50 by end of June 30, 2026?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-05-29	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.63	Will 200 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-05-27	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.63	Will "Implications Of Predicting The Next Token" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-27	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.63	Will "Implications Of Predicting The Next Token" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-27	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.63	Will Dogecoin reach 106% of its current price in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-05-25	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.63	In what year will there be 5000 emoji?	manifold 2026-05-24	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.63	Will "Fail safe(r) at alignment by channeling rewar..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-24	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.63	Tiny but Trusted: Efficient Vision-Language Reasoning for Time-Series Anomaly Detection	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	No More K-means:Single-Stage Sparse Coding for Efficient Multi-Vector Retrieval	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	PokerSkill: LLMs Can Play Expert-Level Poker without Training or Solvers	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.63	Domain-Specific Data Synthesis for LLMs via Minimal Sufficient Representation Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	KairosAgent: Agentic Time Series Forecasting with Fused Semantic Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.63	Internal Representation, Not Clinical Knowledge: Where Apparent LLM Triage Failures Originate	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.63	PRAIB: Peer Review AI Benchmark of Behaviour of LLM-Assisted Reviewing	arxiv 2026-05-28	238_025 AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level Emad Mostaque	AI	45%
0.63	EviLink: Multi-Path Schema Linking with Uncertainty-Guided Evidence Acquisition for Large-Scale Text-to-SQL	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	SCOPE: A Lightweight-training LLM Framework for Air Traffic Control Readback Monitoring	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.63	MarginGate: Sparse Margin-Triggered Verification for Batch-Invariant LLM Inference	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.63	Q-ANCHOR: Federated Quantum Learning with ZNE-guided Correction	arxiv 2026-05-28	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.63	TraceCodec: A Compiler-Backed Neural Codec for Stateful Multi-Flow Network Traffic Traces	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.63	CRB-Guided Framework Design and Resource Allocation for Indoor mmWave ISCC Systems	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	On-Policy Replay for Continual Supervised Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-05-28	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.63	Access Sets Matter: Budgeting Expert Reads for Scalable Weight-Space Model Merging	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.63	Access Sets Matter: Budgeting Expert Reads for Scalable Weight-Space Model Merging	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.63	Composing Non-Conjugate Factor Graphs with Closed-Form Variational Inference	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.63	Information-Directed Offline-to-Online Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.63	Implicit Identity Technologies for LLMs: Fingerprinting and Watermarking across Datasets, Models, and Generated Content	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%