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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.57 | Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-04-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | 76ers vs. Celtics(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.57 | Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-04-20 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.57 | Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-01-07 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.57 | Cavaliers vs. Raptors(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Lightning vs. Canadiens(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis | AI | 48% | |
| 0.57 | Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Cadillac Championship?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Will Germany win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will France win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-02?(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-04-05 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5)(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-04-05 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will Malta win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 24% | |
| 0.57 | Valorant: LOUD vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | 76ers vs. Knicks(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang | AI/Compute | 92% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-21 | 241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?(market prob: 80%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang | AI/Compute | 92% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.57 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 83%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.57 | Spread: Knicks (-7.5)(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Canadiens vs. Sabres(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis | AI | 48% | |
| 0.57 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?(market prob: 20%) | polymarket 2026-04-17 | INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy | 57% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: MODUS vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - European Pro League Group B(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Thunder (-15.5)(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.57 | Will Trump visit China by May 8?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-14 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | Will Trump visit China by May 8?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-14 | 242_037 China will land on the moon before end of 2030 China (government) | Space | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-07 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | ||
| 0.57 | Canadiens vs. Sabres(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis | AI | 48% | |
| 0.57 | Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Qinwen Zheng vs Jelena Ostapenko(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Valorant: G2 Esports vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha(market prob: 92%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Avalanche vs. Wild(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Spurs vs. Timberwolves(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-03-24 | 236_040 CEO will be last to go in AI wave of automation Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10?(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 242_047 Frontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 years Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO3) - LCS Regular Season(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 62% | |
| 0.57 | Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Tomas Machac win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 247_047 Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030 Peter Diamandis | Energy | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Donald Trump visit China on May 11, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Game Handicap: TOG (-1.5) vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-03-31 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | ||
| 0.57 | Will América FC vs. Vila Nova FC end in a draw?(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will América FC vs. Vila Nova FC end in a draw?(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Pistons (-4.5)(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 15%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Paris: Madison Keys vs Sarah Rakotomanga(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | IND_011 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... Jason Calacanis | Macro/Economy | 58% | |
| 0.57 | San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | Sabres vs. Canadiens(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis | AI | 48% | |
| 0.57 | Will Putin visit China by May 31?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-03-31 | 235_033 Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 52% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.57 | Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Map Handicap: NAVI (-2.5) vs GamerLegion (+2.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5(market prob: 70%) | polymarket 2026-05-17 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-04-20 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Thunder (-6.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 233_011 Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption. Joe Liemandt | Education | 37% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | 10% | |
| 0.57 | Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2025-07-11 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-03-30 | 230_034 Abundance will be achieved by 2035. Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will David Njoku play for Kansas City Chiefs in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-02 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 43% | |
| 0.57 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-22 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Will David Njoku play for Denver Broncos in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-29 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | ||
| 0.57 | Will David Njoku play for New Orleans Saints in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-02 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m?(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-25 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Game Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+2.5)(market prob: 81%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Teichmann (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.57 | Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2025-12-04 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-01-08 | 247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 62% | |
| 0.57 | Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.57 | Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Makarska: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Noma Noha Akugue(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 248_015 Princeton CS brains will be a complete commodity two years from today post-ASI. Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5(market prob: 76%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5(market prob: 76%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?(market prob: 76%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Maxx Crosby play for Los Angeles Rams next?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.57 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Joventut vs. Saski Baskonia(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.57 | CB Murcia vs. Barcelona(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?(market prob: 76%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Knicks (-2.5)(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Serge Gnabry be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.57 | Will Serge Gnabry be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | |
| 0.57 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026?(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-08 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | ||
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 238_072 Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days Emad Mostaque | AI | 74% | |
| 0.57 | Iran Nuke before 2027?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2025-11-11 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Knicks (-9.5)(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-06 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | ||
| 0.57 | Spread: Atlanta Dream (-8.5)(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Cholet vs. Paris Basketball(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-08 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Maxx Crosby play for Minnesota Vikings next?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-18 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 233_011 Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption. Joe Liemandt | Education | 37% | ||
| 0.57 | Spread: Spain (-2.5)(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will D.K. Metcalf be traded?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-02-26 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 245_017 Disease/drought-resistant plants and animals market is currently hundreds of billions of dollars Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Sudarshan Yellamaraju win the 2026 TOUR Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.57 | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | |
| 0.57 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 22%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | Set Handicap: Munar (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5)(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-16 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-16 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Pistons (-10.5)(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Astralis vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-08 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Netanyahu out by April 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-17 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Canadiens vs. Lightning(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis | AI | 48% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Pistons (-9.5)(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.57 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-03 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-17 | FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Energy | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will the UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-16 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 234_004 Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-04-21 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.57 | Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Golden Knights vs. Utah(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.57 | Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 243_001 Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-16 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Celtics (-6.5)(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Ningbo Rockets vs. Zhejiang Golden Bulls(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | The Day: Naoya Inoue vs. Junto Nakatani(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-05-02?(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-04-05 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5)(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-04-05 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Game Handicap: KRX (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5)(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Knicks (-7.5)(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-04 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.57 | Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 20%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Pistons (-3.5)(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.57 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Santos: Miguel Tobon vs Facundo Mena(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.57 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Maria Sakkari vs Elena Rybakina(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs Evil Geniuses - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 73%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs Evil Geniuses - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 73%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | AI_002 Models matching the collective cognitive capacity of 'a country of geniuses in a datacenter' — acting simultaneously across all domains — could arrive as early as 2026 or 2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 16% | |
| 0.57 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House(market prob: 17%) | polymarket 2025-07-11 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House(market prob: 17%) | polymarket 2025-07-11 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.57 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-07-11 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexei Popyrin vs Jakub Mensik(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 211.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Game Handicap: SEN (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will Sean Strickland become UFC champion in 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2025-12-29 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-10 | CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Elena Rybakina(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: NRG vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Sinners vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 91%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | 10% | |
| 0.57 | Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2025-11-28 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-10 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 22% | |
| 0.57 | Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-01-30 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: GIANTX vs Solary - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: GIANTX vs Solary - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 233_011 Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption. Joe Liemandt | Education | 37% | ||
| 0.57 | LoL: Movistar KOI vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 244_012 Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: ZeroZone Gaming vs Dream Esports (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-14 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-03-01 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.57 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-09-30 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-12 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-05-16?(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-04-19 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Spurs vs. Thunder(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Map Handicap: NAVI (-2.5) vs GamerLegion (+2.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.57 | Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.57 | Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Geneva Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Casper Ruud(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 300k?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-07 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2025-07-16 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2025-07-16 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Valorant: REBORN vs Enterprise Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group B(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-17 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs(market prob: 68%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-17 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.57 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-03-30 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Tristan Schoolkate vs Kimmer Coppejans(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Will Rob Thomson win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | 242_056 AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Thunder (-3.5)(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.57 | Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 78%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-16 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Kosice: Martin Krumich vs Kilian Feldbausch(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Will Union Bordeaux Begles win?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 67m and 73m?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Set Handicap: Jodar (-2.5) vs Busta (+2.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Valorant: QoR vs FlyQuest (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.57 | Will CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo win on 2026-06-20?(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-23 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Will Maya Joint win the 2026 Women’s French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)(market prob: 37%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.57 | Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5)(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2025-11-04 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Map Handicap: BIG (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.57 | New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?(market prob: 86%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Knicks (-2.5)(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Knicks (-3.5)(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Knicks (-1.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Knicks (-1.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.57 | LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-07 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.57 | Will LeBron James play for the Detroit Pistons in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5)(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Jelena Ostapenko be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will Ashlyn Krueger be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5(market prob: 68%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.57 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-04-17 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.5(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.57 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 82%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.57 | Canadiens vs. Lightning(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 4 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 246_054 Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | |
| 0.57 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-27 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 243_001 Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | |
| 0.57 | Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.57 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-31 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 25%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Madrid Open: Hailey Baptiste vs Mirra Andreeva(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-01 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | Shymkent 2: Sergey Fomin vs Max Hans Rehberg(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Shymkent 2: Sergey Fomin vs Max Hans Rehberg(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-04 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 24% | |
| 0.57 | Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-04-20 | 233_011 Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption. Joe Liemandt | Education | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-01-07 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Iran leadership change by December 31?(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2026-03-09 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will Germany win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Will Germany win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Netanyahu out by June 30?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-02 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.57 | Will France win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.57 | Will Malta win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2025-07-16 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.57 | Game Handicap: KRX (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5)(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-03 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.57 | Spread: Knicks (-7.5)(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.57 | Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-04 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 83%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Forsaken vs Lodis (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 77%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-17 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Spurs (-9.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana(market prob: 20%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana(market prob: 20%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 24% | |
| 0.57 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?(market prob: 20%) | polymarket 2026-04-17 | 229_037 With humanoids, Greenland mineral extraction becomes viable even though Europeans at Davos say it's impossible. Peter Diamandis | Energy | 21% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: MODUS vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - European Pro League Group B(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Ici Japon Corp. Esport - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.57 | Will GameStop acquire eBay?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.57 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Luca Nardi(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.57 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Knicks (-1.5)(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.57 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexei Popyrin vs Jakub Mensik(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-03-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | Knicks vs. 76ers(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Will the fight be won by submission?(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-04-18 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Sabres vs. Canadiens(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 35m?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 32m?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Thunder (-10.5)(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Thunder (-11.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 94%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 94%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 78%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: GIANTX vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.57 | Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi | Other | 53% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | IND_007 Massive 'Corporate Collapse' 2026 as legacy businesses fail to integrate GPT-5 level capabilities — specifically predicting a 1.1 million job loss event tied to this transition. AI intelligence growth by end-2026 comparable to evolutionary leap 'from a... Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 15?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 22% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in Australia?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-30 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.57 | Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-16 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-05-17 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% |