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64,690 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 24 of 120, 500 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.66	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.93.0	github_release 2026-04-09	231_001 Anthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement today. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.66	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.93.0	github_release 2026-04-09	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 7?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 6?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.66	Will the Anthropic-Blackstone enterprise AI services firm name its first customer by Sept 30, 2026?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-05	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.66	OpenSeeker-v2: Pushing the Limits of Search Agents with Informative and High-Difficulty Trajectories	arxiv 2026-05-05	COD_AI_004 Frontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	AI	36%
0.66	RoboAlign-R1: Distilled Multimodal Reward Alignment for Robot Video World Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.66	AI Advocate: Educational Path to Transform Squads to the Future	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_025 The legal profession must transition from viewing AI as a 'prompter' to an active 'partner' — when an autonomous AI consultant hallucinates legal precedent or medical diagnosis, traditional corporate malpractice frameworks fail; courts must rapidly est... Ralph Losey	Other	77%
0.66	Local Truncation Error-Guided Neural ODEs for Large Scale Traffic Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	Are you with me? A Framework for Detecting Mental Model Discrepancies in Task-Based Team Dialogues	arxiv 2026-05-04	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.66	ARISE: A Repository-level Graph Representation and Toolset for Agentic Fault Localization and Program Repair	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.66	ORPilot: A Production-Oriented Agentic LLM-for-OR Tool for Optimization Modeling	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	From Code to Prediction: Fine-Tuning LLMs for Neural Network Performance Classification in NNGPT	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.66	Universality in Deep Neural Networks: An approach via the Lindeberg exchange principle	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.66	MPCS: Neuroplastic Continual Learning via Multi-Component Plasticity and Topology-Aware EWC	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	Rethinking Reasoning-Intensive Retrieval: Evaluating and Advancing Retrievers in Agentic Search Systems	arxiv 2026-05-05	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.66	Perturbation Dose Responses in Recursive LLM Loops: Raw Switching, Stochastic Floors, and Persistent Escape under Append, Replace, and Dialog Updates	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.66	A Semantic Autonomy Framework for VLM-Integrated Indoor Mobile Robots: Hybrid Deterministic Reasoning and Cross-Robot Adaptive Memory	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.66	Do We Really Need Immediate Resets? Rethinking Collision Handling for Efficient Robot Navigation	arxiv 2026-05-04	SPC_015 AI will continuously analyze orbital trajectories of active satellites and space debris to predict collisions with superhuman accuracy — upon identifying collision risks, AI systems will autonomously command satellite Hall-effect thrusters to adjust or... Andrej Karpathy	Space	72%
0.66	FDA NDA220837: EVDI (TRABECTEDIN) — APOTEX	fda 2026-05-01	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.66	FDA ANDA217957: LEUPROLIDE ACETATE (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — UBI	fda 2026-05-06	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8?(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will OKLO reach $200 by the end of 2026?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-07	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.66	FMI_SU_Yotkova_Kastreva at SemEval-2026 Task 13: Lightweight Detection of LLM-Generated Code via Stylometric Signals	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.66	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 8?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 9?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	ActCam: Zero-Shot Joint Camera and 3D Motion Control for Video Generation	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.66	AI CFD Scientist: Toward Open-Ended Computational Fluid Dynamics Discovery with Physics-Aware AI Agents	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.66	Cross-Modal Navigation with Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.66	Beyond Task Success: Measuring Workflow Fidelity in LLM-Based Agentic Payment Systems	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_027 Autonomous AI agents cannot function efficiently on legacy slow-moving fiat banking rails — therefore AI systems will inevitably adopt Bitcoin and scalable cryptographic networks as their native digital capital, operating independently across borders a... Michael Saylor	Crypto	25%
0.66	Knowledge Graphs, the Missing Link in Agentic AI-based Formal Verification	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.66	Knowledge Graphs, the Missing Link in Agentic AI-based Formal Verification	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.66	MinMax Recurrent Neural Cascades	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	CoupleEvo: Evolving Heuristics for Coupled Optimization Problems Using Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Joint Consistency: A Unified Test-Time Aggregation Framework via Energy Minimization	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	AI-Generated Images: What Humans and Machines See When They Look at the Same Image	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.66	TACT: Mitigating Overthinking and Overacting in Coding Agents via Activation Steering	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.66	TACT: Mitigating Overthinking and Overacting in Coding Agents via Activation Steering	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.66	MAS-Algorithm: A Workflow for Solving Algorithmic Programming Problems with a Multi-Agent System	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.66	Tuning Derivatives for Causal Fairness in Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.66	Criticality and Saturation in Orthogonal Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-07	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.66	Understanding diffusion models requires rethinking (again) generalization	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.66	Training Transformers for KV Cache Compressibility	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Efficient Pre-Training with Token Superposition	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Multi-Dimensional Behavioral Evaluation of Agentic Stock Prediction Systems Using LLM Judges with Closed-Loop Reinforcement Learning Feedback	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_004 Equity markets will algorithmically reward corporate entities that utilize AI to slash headcount while ruthlessly punishing those that retain human-heavy operational structures — transforming AI from productivity tool into an economic surveillance mech... Andrew Yang	Markets/Stocks	30%
0.66	Nonsense Helps: Prompt Space Perturbation Broadens Reasoning Exploration	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.66	Monitoring autonomous persistent surveillance missions using invariance	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.66	Accurate Trajectory Tracking with MPCC for Flapping-Wing MAVs	arxiv 2026-05-07	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.66	FDA ANDA202420: CALCIUM ACETATE (CALCIUM ACETATE) — CHARTWELL MOLECULAR	fda 2026-05-01	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	246_011 Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. Dave Blundin	AI	42%
0.66	Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 25,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030?(market prob: 72%)	manifold 2026-05-08	243_031 Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US Dara Khosrowshahi	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 11?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.66	Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 4-10?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.66	Will Ethereum reach $2,500 on May 11?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.66	Will I lose my current job by the end of 2026?(market prob: 23%)	manifold 2026-05-11	231_041 Radical massive job destruction is imminent; new creation will lag, causing devastation for a few years. Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	54%
0.66	Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) (CIK 0001758009)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.66	Beyond GRPO and On-Policy Distillation: An Empirical Sparse-to-Dense Reward Principle for Language-Model Post-Training	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.66	Towards Affordable Energy: A Gymnasium Environment for Electric Utility Demand-Response Programs	arxiv 2026-05-12	235_024 In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities. Alex Wissner-Gross	Energy	31%
0.66	Stories in Space: In-Context Learning Trajectories in Conceptual Belief Space	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.66	Trust the Batch, On- or Off-Policy: Adaptive Policy Optimization for RL Post-Training	arxiv 2026-05-12	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.66	In-context learning to predict critical transitions in dynamical systems	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_027 Integration of AI with advanced bio-sensing, quantum computing, and genomics enables humanity to achieve 'Longevity Escape Velocity' — tipping point where medical technology extends human lifespan faster than time passes; continuous biological surveill... Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	21%
0.66	Missing Old Logits in Asynchronous Agentic RL: Semantic Mismatch and Repair Methods for Off-Policy Correction	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.66	Slicing and Dicing: Configuring Optimal Mixtures of Experts	arxiv 2026-05-12	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.66	FDA ANDA071198: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — BARR	fda 2026-05-05	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.66	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	246_011 Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. Dave Blundin	AI	42%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Pretraining Language Models with Subword Regularization: An Empirical Study of BPE Dropout in Low-Resource NLP	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	EMO: Frustratingly Easy Progressive Training of Extendable MoE	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	DiffusionHijack: Supply-Chain PRNG Backdoor Attack on Diffusion Models and Quantum Random Number Defense	arxiv 2026-05-13	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.66	When Should an AI Workflow Release? Always-Valid Inference for Black-Box Generate-Verify Systems	arxiv 2026-05-13	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.66	Reinforced Collaboration in Multi-Agent Flow Networks	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.66	Reinforced Collaboration in Multi-Agent Flow Networks	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	Reinforced Collaboration in Multi-Agent Flow Networks	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 16?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.66	Will WTI close(or open) $108 in May 2026? (After May 10)(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-10	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.66	MeMo: Memory as a Model	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.66	Natural Synthesis: Outperforming Reactive Synthesis Tools with Large Reasoning Models	arxiv 2026-05-14	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.66	Croissant Baker: Metadata Generation for Discoverable, Governable, and Reusable ML Datasets	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	Concurrency without Model Changes: Future-based Asynchronous Function Calling for LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-14	INF_026 'Software 3.0' LLM infrastructure will operate like public utilities — requiring massive upfront capex (training compute, specialized hardware), specialized networking protocols for synchrony across hundreds of thousands of GPUs, and flawless uninterru... Andrej Karpathy	AI	70%
0.66	One Step to the Side: Why Defenses Against Malicious Finetuning Fail Under Adaptive Adversaries	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.66	FrontierSmith: Synthesizing Open-Ended Coding Problems at Scale	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.66	MoRe: Modular Representations for Principled Continual Representation Learning on Squantial Data	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.66	Semantic Feature Segmentation for Interpretable Predictive Maintenance in Complex Systems	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.66	Mini-JEPA Foundation Model Fleet Enables Agentic Hydrologic Intelligence	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.66	FDA NDA021732: VANTAS (HISTRELIN ACETATE) — ENDO OPERATIONS	fda 2026-05-06	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 19?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.66	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 18?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.66	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.66	Will Bitcoin hit $73,000 or $83,000 first?	manifold 2026-05-18	247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor	Crypto	48%
0.66	GPT 5.6 released by…?	manifold 2026-05-18	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.66	Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) (CIK 0001758009)	edgar_8k 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Generative Adversarial Learning from Deterministic Processes	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	Improved Baselines with Representation Autoencoders	arxiv 2026-05-18	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.66	Symmetry-Compatible Principle for Optimizer Design: Embeddings, LM Heads, SwiGLU MLPs, and MoE Routers	arxiv 2026-05-18	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.66	InfoFlow: A Framework for Multi-Layer Transformer Analysis	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2026-05-23	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.66	Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of June 2026?	manifold 2026-05-29	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.66	Will anyone beat the 281.85 wpm Monkeytype English 60 record before 2027?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-05-28	S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path	agi_general_capability	35%
0.66	Will the United States unemployment rate exceed 30% any time before 2040?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-05-24	CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei	AI	41%
0.66	LLMSurgeon: Diagnosing Data Mixture of Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Give it Space! Explicit Disentangling of Positional and Semantic Representations in Encoders	arxiv 2026-05-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.66	From GPS Points to Travel Patterns: Flexible and Semantic Trajectory Generation with LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.66	Label Over Logic? How Source Cues Bias Human Fallacy Judgments More Than LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_027 Ongoing 'reasoning boom' where scientific software development operates on a '20-80 human split' — AI handles 80% of cognitive labor, humans handle 20%, driving recursive self-improvement timelines toward the Singularity; fundamental inversion from hum... Eric Schmidt	Labor/Jobs	42%
0.66	OptSkills: Learning Generalizable Optimization Skills from Problem Archetypes via Cluster-Based Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Croissant Tasks: A Metadata Format for Reproducible Machine Learning Evaluations	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	GRASP: Gated Regression-Aware Skill Proposer for Self-Improving LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.66	Singularity-aware Optimization via Randomized Geometric Probing: Towards Stable Non-smooth Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.66	ExDBSCAN: Explaining DBSCAN with Counterfactual Reasoning -- Additional Material	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	RL2ML: Finite-Rollout Surrogate Objectives from Reinforcement Learning to Maximum Likelihood	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Convergence Theory for Iterative LLM-Based Neural Architecture Search: A Parametric Cross-Entropy Framework with Closed-Form Proxy Reliability	arxiv 2026-05-28	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.66	PEARL: Training Socratic Tutors with Pedagogically Aligned Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Do Physics Foundation Models Learn Generalizable Physics? A Bias-Aware Benchmark Across Physical Regimes and Distribution Shifts	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.66	VideoFDB: Evaluating Full-Duplex Vision-Speech Capabilities in Conversational Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.66	Learning Design Skills as Memory Policies for Agentic Photonic Inverse Design	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.66	Rubric-Guided Process Reward for Stepwise Model Routing	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Accommodation Goes Both Ways: Studying Linguistic Convergence Between Humans and Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.66	Learning and Adaptation in Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing Bead Geometry Control	arxiv 2026-05-27	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.66	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.104.0	github_release 2026-05-21	238_027 OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.66	facebookresearch/faiss v1.14.2	github_release 2026-05-22	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	87%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-23	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.66	3rd largest company end of September 2026?	manifold 2026-06-01	236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	53%
0.66	2nd largest company end of September 2026?	manifold 2026-06-01	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.66	Largest company end of July 2026?	manifold 2026-06-01	236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	53%
0.66	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June?(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.66	Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.66	Bitcoin $60k in June?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-06-02	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.66	How many 10s of thousands of species be on OneZoom at the end of this year?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-06-02	245_004 EY estimates the extinct-species educational/consumer market at $1.7 trillion annually EY (Ernst & Young)	Consumer	43%
0.66	HLL: Can Agents Cross Humanity's Last Line of Verification?	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.66	Not All Errors Are Equal: A Systematic Study of Error Propagation in Large Language Model Inference	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_059 Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds. Alex Finn	AI	62%
0.66	When Do Attention Circuits Form? Developmental Trajectories of Capability and Attention-Sink Emergence Across Three 1B-ClassArchitectures	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.66	Spatial Representation Learning Beyond Pixels: Unifying Raster Data and Vector Semantics for Human-Centric Geospatial Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-01	SPC_016 AI transforms Earth Observation satellites via on-orbit edge computing — parsing raw visual and radar data in space, downlinking only actionable insights rather than raw imagery; permanently handing tedious low-cognitive tasks to AI and reserving human... Ben Lamm	Space	72%
0.66	FOAM: Frequency and Operator Error-Based Adaptive Damping Method for Reducing Staleness-Oriented Error for Shampoo	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	The Role of Ambiguity in Error Prediction via Uncertainty Quantification	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Agentic-J: An AI Agent for Biological Microscopy Image Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-01	245_006 Colossal will productionize species development via biobanking, synthetic biology, automation, AI, computer vision and artificial wombs Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	41%
0.66	CAPF: Guiding Search-Agent Rollouts with Credit-Attenuated Privileged Feedback	arxiv 2026-06-01	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.66	Consistency evaluation of benchmarks used for causal discovery	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.66	Easier to Mislead Than to Correct: Harmful and Beneficial Revision in LLM Conformity	arxiv 2026-06-01	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.66	Easier to Mislead Than to Correct: Harmful and Beneficial Revision in LLM Conformity	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Defenses & Enablers For Skill Injection Attacks on Terminal Based Agents	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.66	Joint Agent Memory and Exploration Learning via Novelty Signals	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.66	TERRA: Task-Embedded Reasoning and Representation Architecture for Cross-Domain Applications	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.66	Massive Spikes in LLMs are Bias Vectors: Mechanistic Uncovering and Spike-Free Quantization	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Why Are DMD Students Lazy? Understanding the Copying Behavior in Few-Step Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Ablating Archetypes: The Stability of Archetypal SAEs is an Artifact of Initialization and Metric Design	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	HMPO: Hybrid Median-length Policy Optimization for Chain-of-Thought Compression	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	ResMerge: Residual-based Spectral Merging of Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	When Knowledge Is Not Free: Cost-Aware Evidence Selection in Retrieval-Augmented Generation	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.66	When Knowledge Is Not Free: Cost-Aware Evidence Selection in Retrieval-Augmented Generation	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.66	CRAB-Bench: Evaluating LLM Agents under Complex Task Dependencies and Human-aligned User Simulation	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.66	HarnessForge: Joint Harness and Policy Evolution for Adaptive Agent Systems	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Decoding in Order-Agnostic Language Models: Chain-Rule Deviation and Uniform Spreading	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Relational Intervention During Functional Collapse in Large Language Models: A Lexical-Statistical Ablation and a Structure x Register Factorial	arxiv 2026-05-31	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.66	FDA ANDA220055: ANDA220055 ((unspecified)) — MSN LABORATORIES PRIVATE LIMITED	fda 2026-05-20	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4?(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.66	Steve Hilton And Spencer Pratt conditional Market	manifold 2026-06-03	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.66	Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 6?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 5?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.66	Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 5?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 8?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Double Preconditioning (DoPr): Optimization for Test-Time Performance, not Validation Loss	arxiv 2026-06-04	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.66	MPCoT: Reward-Guided Multi-Path Latent Reasoning for Test-Time Scalable Vision-Language-Action	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	From Reward-Hack Activations to Agentic Risk States: Context-Calibrated Mechanistic Monitoring in LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.66	When Good Enough Is Optimal: Multiplication-Only Matrix Inversion Approximation for Quantized Gated DeltaNet	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	Entropy-Based Evaluation of AI Agents: A Lightweight Framework for Measuring Behavioral Patterns	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	Can LLMs Write Correct TLA+ Specifications? Evaluating Natural-Language-to-TLA+ Generation	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.66	When AI Says It Feels	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.66	Representation Learning Enables Scalable Multitask Deep Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	Effective Dimensionality as an Operator Invariant for Physics-Preserving Constraint Adaptation in Physics-Informed Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	CASS-RTL: Correctness-Aware Subspace Steering for RTL Generation with LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.66	Should Demand Models Incorporate Competitor Prices? Oblivious Learning and Algorithmic Collusion	arxiv 2026-06-03	SEM_007 Altman strategy: capture 90% of global compute/AI market — treat compute infrastructure as monopolistic foundational utility. Sam Altman	AI/Strategy	23%
0.66	Human Adults and LLMs as Scientists: Who Benefits from Active Exploration?	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.66	NAVIRA: Decoupled Stochastic Remasking for Masked Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.66	PlanBench-V: A Spatial Planning Map Benchmark for Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.66	Evaluating Large Language Models in Dynamic Clinical Decision-Making with Standardized Patient Cases	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis	AI	60%
0.66	GRAIL: Gradient-Reweighted Advantages for Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.66	SMADE-IE: Sparse Multi-Agent Framework with Evidence-Driven Debate for Zero-Shot Information Extraction	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Ensuring Interaction Safety in Multitask Exoskeleton Control: A Simulation-Trained Variable Impedance Framework	arxiv 2026-06-04	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.66	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.106.0	github_release 2026-06-05	247_060 Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	230_022 Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years. Elon Musk	Robotics	31%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7?(market prob: 20%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.66	Will May 2026 U.S. real personal consumption expenditures rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-06	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	35%
0.66	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.107.0	github_release 2026-06-06	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.66	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.107.1	github_release 2026-06-07	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.66	Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 7?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.66	Native3D: End-to-End 3D Scene Generation via Unified Mesh-Texture Modeling and Semantic Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-05	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.66	SlimSearcher: Training Efficiency-Aware Web Agents via Adaptive Reward Gating	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.66	A Geometric View for Understanding Concept Learning and Neuron Interpretation in Sparse Autoencoders	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Towards Tight Bounds for Streaming Attention	arxiv 2026-06-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.66	OPTIMUS-Prime: Minimal and Sufficient Concept Explanations for Deep Vision Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.66	The discovery of the effects of women employment participation on the fertility of developing countries: A panel data approach	arxiv 2026-06-05	FUT_023 'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	68%
0.66	From Sampled Outcomes to Capability Distributions: Rethinking Supervision for LLM Routing	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.66	Learning Fair Demand Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.66	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 7?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9?(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Iran Nuke before 2027?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2025-11-11	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.66	Will the NASDAQ crash before Aug 30, 2026?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-06-08	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.66	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 11?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	When Claude Mythos is released, will it have different benchmark scores reported by Anthropic than Claude Mythos Preview(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-06-08	240_002 Amazon or Anthropic will hit a trillion in revenue within a calendar year faster than NVIDIA Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.66	Will the Riemann Hypothesis be solved before 2030?(market prob: 65%)	manifold 2026-06-08	CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei	AI	41%
0.66	OmniGameArena: A Unified UE5 Benchmark for VLM Game Agents with Improvement Dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.66	I Was Scrolling and Then I Saw a Pregnant Strawberry	arxiv 2026-06-08	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.66	I Was Scrolling and Then I Saw a Pregnant Strawberry	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.66	AliyunConsoleAgent: Training Web Agents in Real-World Cloud Environments via Distillation and Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.66	AliyunConsoleAgent: Training Web Agents in Real-World Cloud Environments via Distillation and Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.66	Experience Makes Skillful: Enabling Generalizable Medical Agent Reasoning via Self-Evolving Skill Memory	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.66	Experience Makes Skillful: Enabling Generalizable Medical Agent Reasoning via Self-Evolving Skill Memory	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.66	Brain-Prompt Injection: A Route-Safety Audit for BCI-LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.66	Context Rot in AI-Assisted Software Development: Repurposing Documentation Consistency for AI Configuration Artifacts	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_005 AI will handle the entire software development process end-to-end within 6-12 months (by late 2026) — humans relegated to reviewer/editor role. Dario Amodei	AI	56%
0.66	Inference-Time Conformal Reasoning with Valid Factuality Control for Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Toward Compiler World Models: Learning Latent Dynamics for Efficient Tensor Program Search	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.66	ERBench: A Benchmark and Testsuite for Equation Discovery Algorithms	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	Aperon Technical Report: Hierarchical No-Pointer Tangent-Local Search for High-Dimensional Approximate Nearest Neighbors	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Civil Court Simulation with Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.66	One Model, Multiple Goals: Adaptive Multi-Objective Learning for E-commerce Dialogue Systems	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.66	Physics-Aware Sparse Learning and Selective Online Adaptation for Euler-Lagrange Robot Dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.66	MotionWAM: Towards Foundation World Action Models for Real-Time Humanoid Loco-Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.66	Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.66	Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 10?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.66	A Unifying Lens on Supervised Fine-Tuning Through Target Distribution Design	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Modeling Complex Behaviors: Multi-Personality Composition and Dynamic Switching in Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	CIAware-Bench: Benchmarking Control Intervention Awareness Across Frontier LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.66	Infini Memory: Maintainable Topic Documents for Long-Term LLM Agent Memory	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.66	In Defense of Information Leakage in Concept-based Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Hidden Consensus:Preference-Validity Compression in Human Feedback	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.66	ActiveMem: Distributed Active Memory for Long-Horizon LLM Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.66	Machine Learning Methods for Studying Latent Neural Activity Dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.66	The Distributed Detectability Band Against Marginal-Preserving Attacks	arxiv 2026-06-09	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.66	Agentic Hybrid RAG for Evidence-Grounded Muon Collider Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.66	Hyperbolic Neural Population Geometry Benefits Computation	arxiv 2026-06-08	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.66	Task Robustness via Re-Labelling Vision-Action Robot Data	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.66	PL-KKT-hPINN: Enforcing Nonlinear Equality Constraints on Neural Networks via Piecewise-Linear Projection	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Toward Proactive RF Charging Scheduling: Generative AI for Decision Support	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_024 In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities. Alex Wissner-Gross	Energy	31%
0.66	Beyond Explaining Predictions: Logic-Based Explanations for Confidence in Machine Learning Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	A Continuous-Time Markov Chain Framework for Insertion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Learning Entropy and Spatial Adaptation Dynamics of Multilayer Perceptrons for Structural Point Extraction	arxiv 2026-06-08	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.66	Large Language Models as Modal Models in Linguistics	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.66	Which LoRA? An Empirical Study on the Effectiveness of LoRA Techniques During Multilingual Instruction Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.66	WebChallenger: A Reliable and Efficient Generalist Web Agent	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.66	What Should a Skill Remember? Quality--Cost Trade-offs in Cost-Aware Skill Rewriting for Language Model Agents	arxiv 2026-06-08	SPC_029 'Idea Guys' vindication — because AI handles rote execution of complex engineering and software tasks, human vision and imagination become the only remaining scarcity in the economy; imagination replaces coding skill as the premium professional currency. Sam Altman	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.66	AgenticNav: Zero-Shot Vision-and-Language Navigation as a Tool-Calling Harness	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	230_022 Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years. Elon Musk	Robotics	31%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.66	XRP BELOW $1 THIS WEEK?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-06-10	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.66	NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) (CIK 0001413447)	edgar_8k 2026-06-11	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.66	ATLAS: Active Theory Learning for Automated Science	arxiv 2026-06-10	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.66	Making Foresight Actionable: Repurposing Representation Alignment in World Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.66	"That's AI Slop, You Bot!" Studying Accusations, Evidence, and Credibility in Online Discourse Towards LLM-Generated Comments	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.66	Task-Aligned Stability Analysis of Vision-Language Models for Autonomous Driving Hazard Detection	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Automated Creativity Evaluation of Language Models Across Open-Ended Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-10	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.66	Mind the Perspective: Let's Reason Recursively for Theory of Mind	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Architecture-Aware Reinforcement Learning Makes Sliding-Window Attention Competitive in Math Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Information-Theoretic Decomposition for Multimodal Interaction Learning	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.66	AVIS: Adaptive Test-Time Scaling for Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Risk Under Pressure: Compute-Aware Evaluation of Adversarial Robustness in Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.66	Overcoming State Inertia in Full-Duplex Spoken Language Models via Activation Steering	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.66	Automated Mediator for Human Negotiation: Pre-Mediation via a Structured LLM Pipeline	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Modeling Complex Behaviors: Multi-Personality Composition and Dynamic Switching in Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Family-Aware Residual Architecture for Predicting Quantum Circuit Simulation Performance	arxiv 2026-06-10	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.66	Learning Object Manipulation from Scratch via Contrastive Interaction	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Verifiable Environments Are LEGO Bricks: Recursive Composition for Reasoning Generalization	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	Can News Predict the Market? Limits of Zero-Shot Financial NLP and the Role of Explainable AI	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.66	ERTS: Adversarial Robustness Testing of Ethical AI via Semantic Perturbation in a Bounded Consequence Space	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.66	Humor Style Drives Laughter, Topic Shapes Acceptability: Evaluating Bilingual Personal and Political Robot-Delivered AI Jokes	arxiv 2026-06-11	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.66	MemRefine: LLM-Guided Compression for Long-Term Agent Memory	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_046 Sustained memory contexts required for agent 'memory' will drive additional 15-45 exabytes of DRAM demand by 2027 — up to 77% of global supply. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	63%
0.66	Acquisition state behaves as a structured, measurable variable governing lung-nodule AI: kernel-driven measurement instability and noise-driven detection fragility, invisible to DICOM metadata	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis	AI	60%
0.66	LLMs Can Better Capture Human Judgments--With the Right Prompts	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.66	Keep Policy Gradient in Charge: Sibling-Guided Credit Distillation for Long-Horizon Tool-Use Agents	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	GF-DiT: Scheduling Parallelism for Diffusion Transformer Serving	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.66	Circuit Synchronization Precedes Generalization: Causal Evidence from Fourier Structure in Grokking Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	Direct Preference Optimization for Chatbot Fine-Tuning: An Empirical Study	arxiv 2026-06-11	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.66	TimeLens: On-Device Artifact Recognition with Retrieval-Augmented Question Answering for the Grand Egyptian Museum	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Low cost, easily manufactured, highly flexible strain and touch sensitive fiber for robotics applications	arxiv 2026-06-11	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.66	Learning to Assist: Collaborative VLAs for Implicit Human-Robot Collaboration	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 30?(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.66	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-03-09	246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	79%
0.66	Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	79%
0.66	Will Qwen 3.6+ 122B A10B be open weights before July 2026?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-04-29	234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.66	Will China Collapse before 2035? (GDP down 20%)(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-04-26	234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail	Geopolitics	44%
0.66	Title:Will a Kessler Syndrome cascade begin in Low Earth Orbit before 2046?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-04-24	FUT_016 Next 5 years (2026-2030) require individuals + organizations to adopt 'FLUX' superpowers — ability to transform constant uncertainty into strategic advantage. Traditional linear career paths dissolve entirely by 2030, replaced by fluid portfolio-based ... April Rinne	Labor/Jobs	44%
0.66	What will be the sum of 2026 USAMO MOHS	manifold 2026-04-24	SEM_017 TSMC will produce over 10M wafers/month total in 2026, including ~100K/mo at 2nm and ~200K/mo at 3nm. TSMC (All-In Podcast analysis)	Semis	65%
0.66	Will I get a girlfriend in the year 2026(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-04-23	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.66		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.66		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.66	google ai deal pentagon.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_055 Acquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of millions will become common Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.66	google ai deal pentagon.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	CYB_028 The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... Mark Cuban	Markets/Stocks	48%
0.66	big tech earnings microsoft ai investment capex plan 2026 4	gdelt 2026-04-30	INF_011 Mega-cap hyperscalers will commit over $1 trillion of capital expenditures in the 2025-2026 period alone, with roughly half financed via debt — intertwining AI buildout risk with global credit markets. Morgan Stanley	Macro/Economy	92%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.66	will i get a medal at the IPO 2026?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-04-30	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.66	Will 50% or more of the Erdos problems be solved at the end of 2030?(market prob: 68%)	manifold 2026-04-29	230_034 Abundance will be achieved by 2035. Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	50%
0.66	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 1?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.66	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 1?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.66	MegaETH FDV above $1.6B one day after launch?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.66	MegaETH FDV above $1.6B one day after launch?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.66	Will the 2026 FIDE World Chess Championship score be tied after game ... ?	manifold 2026-05-01	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.66	Bitcoin $67K in May?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.66	Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.66	Which prediction market CEOs will I meet before 2028?	manifold 2026-05-02	IND_017 Arrival of the 'AI CEO Billionaire' in 2026 — AI will automate knowledge work so effectively that a synthetic entity could run a billion-dollar enterprise autonomously. Dawn of 'Agentic Era' begins 2027, where autonomous AI agents seamlessly integrate ... Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	11%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.66	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 28-May 4?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5?(market prob: 92%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will I make USAMO in 2027(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-04	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.66	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2025-11-19	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.66	Will a bot win prize drawing this year?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-05	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.66	Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) (CIK 0001375365)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	SEM_018 SMIC (China) projected at only 100,000 wafers/month of advanced-process capacity by 2026 — severe constraint forcing algorithmic bypasses. SMIC (All-In Podcast analysis)	Semis	47%
0.66	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.94.1	github_release 2026-04-13	246_047 Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. Peter Diamandis	AI	76%
0.66	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.89.0	github_release 2026-04-03	234_009 Pentagon and Anthropic will resolve their standoff amicably Alex Wissner-Gross	Defense	39%
0.66	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.83.0	github_release 2026-02-19	246_047 Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. Peter Diamandis	AI	76%
0.66	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.83.0	github_release 2026-02-19	247_060 Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.66	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.81.0	github_release 2026-02-18	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.66	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.80.0	github_release 2026-02-17	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.66	huggingface/transformers v5.8.0	github_release 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.66	Will QCOM stock reach $300 by the end of 2026?(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-05-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.66	Will the Anthropic-Blackstone enterprise AI services firm name its first customer by Sept 30, 2026?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-05	247_026 Anthropic may be first Frontier Lab to generate $1 trillion in revenue via enterprise agents Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.66	SymptomAI: Towards a Conversational AI Agent for Everyday Symptom Assessment	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis	AI	60%
0.66	MOSAIC-Bench: Measuring Compositional Vulnerability Induction in Coding Agents	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.66	Magic-Informed Quantum Architecture Search	arxiv 2026-05-05	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.66	Deco: Extending Personal Physical Objects into Pervasive AI Companion through a Dual-Embodiment Framework	arxiv 2026-05-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.66	Self-Improvement for Fast, High-Quality Plan Generation	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Parametrizing Convex Sets Using Sublinear Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-05	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.66	Cascade Token Selection for Transformer Attention Acceleration	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Caliper-in-the-Loop: Black-Box Optimization for Hyperledger Fabric Performance Tuning	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.66	Learning Dynamics of Zeroth-Order Optimization: A Kernel Perspective	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	Unsupervised Machine Learning for Detecting Structural Anomalies in European Regional Statistics	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.66	Beating the Style Detector: Three Hours of Agentic Research on the AI-Text Arms Race	arxiv 2026-05-04	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.66	Synthetic Users, Real Differences: an Evaluation Framework for User Simulation in Multi-Turn Conversations	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.66	Neural Control: Adjoint Learning Through Equilibrium Constraints	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.66	AoI-Aware Multi-Robot Sensing and Transport on Connected Graphs	arxiv 2026-05-04	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.66	FDA ANDA210154: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — ZYDUS PHARMS	fda 2026-04-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.66	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on May 7?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 8?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will OKLO reach $200 by the end of 2026?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-07	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.66	A Hybrid Method for Low-Resource Named Entity Recognition	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.29.post2	github_release 2025-01-31	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9?(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.66	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2025-11-24	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.66	Verifier-Backed Hard Problem Generation for Mathematical Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	On the Implicit Reward Overfitting and the Low-rank Dynamics in RLVR	arxiv 2026-05-07	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.66	On the Security of Research Artifacts	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.66	Asymmetric On-Policy Distillation: Bridging Exploitation and Imitation at the Token Level	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Beyond Accuracy: Policy Invariance as a Reliability Test for LLM Safety Judges	arxiv 2026-05-07	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.66	PersonaKit (PK): A Plug-and-Play Platform for User Testing Diverse Roles in Full-Duplex Dialogue	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	MAS-Algorithm: A Workflow for Solving Algorithmic Programming Problems with a Multi-Agent System	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.66	Cubit: Token Mixer with Kernel Ridge Regression	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Knowing but Not Correcting: Routine Task Requests Suppress Factual Correction in LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.66	BioTool: A Comprehensive Tool-Calling Dataset for Enhancing Biomedical Capabilities of Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_012 NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a decade — Evo 2 achieves 90% accuracy in BRCA1 predictions; AI models will seamlessly transition generated biological designs into practical, synthesized clinical... Jensen Huang	Biotech/Longevity	68%
0.66	Decomposing the Basic Abilities of Large Language Models: Mitigating Cross-Task Interference in Multi-Task Instruct-Tuning	arxiv 2026-05-07	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.66	ZAYA1-8B Technical Report	arxiv 2026-05-06	INF_008 Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — a sustained compounding rate that rapidly surpasses human-level baselines and mandates continuous hardware refresh cycles. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.66	Plug-and-Play Label Map Diffusion for Universal Goal-Oriented Navigation	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.66	Adaptive Q-Chunking for Offline-to-Online Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	LineRides: Line-Guided Reinforcement Learning for Bicycle Robot Stunts	arxiv 2026-05-06	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.66	From Pixels to Tokens: A Systematic Study of Latent Action Supervision for Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.66	Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 4-10?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.66	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 10?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.66	US Gas Price average for 11 May 2026?	manifold 2026-05-10	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.66	Will Ethereum reach $2,500 on May 11?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.66	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.101.0	github_release 2026-05-11	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	ORBIT: Preserving Foundational Language Capabilities in GenRetrieval via Origin-Regulated Merging	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Predicting Decisions of AI Agents from Limited Interaction through Text-Tabular Modeling	arxiv 2026-05-12	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.66	Events as Triggers for Behavioral Diversity in Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.66	Fill the GAP: A Granular Alignment Paradigm for Visual Reasoning in Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Autoregressive Learning in Joint KL: Sharp Oracle Bounds and Lower Bounds	arxiv 2026-05-12	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.66	Targeted Neuron Modulation via Contrastive Pair Search	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	No More, No Less: Task Alignment in Terminal Agents	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.66	Learning What Matters: Adaptive Information-Theoretic Objectives for Robot Exploration	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.66	Slicing and Dicing: Configuring Optimal Mixtures of Experts	arxiv 2026-05-12	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.66	From Generic Correlation to Input-Specific Credit in On-Policy Self Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.66	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.102.0	github_release 2026-05-13	238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	230_022 Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years. Elon Musk	Robotics	31%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.66	A Hierarchical Language Model with Predictable Scaling Laws and Provable Benefits of Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	HLS-Seek: QoR-Aware Code Generation for High-Level Synthesis via Proxy Comparative Reward Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	N-vium: Mixture-of-Exits Transformer for Accelerated Exact Generation	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	On Hallucinations in Inverse Problems: Fundamental Limits and Provable Assessment Methods	arxiv 2026-05-13	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.66	Rethinking Efficient Graph Coarsening via a Non-Selfishness Principle	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	Not Just RLHF: Why Alignment Alone Won't Fix Multi-Agent Sycophancy	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.66	When Should an AI Workflow Release? Always-Valid Inference for Black-Box Generate-Verify Systems	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.66	From Instance Selection to Fixed-Pool Data Recipe Search for Supervised Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.66	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	SEM_040 Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10x to 30x in performance. Michael Saylor	Finance/Crypto	48%
0.66	TILBench: A Systematic Benchmark for Tabular Imbalanced Learning Across Data Regimes	arxiv 2026-05-14	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.66	Known By Their Actions: Fingerprinting LLM Browser Agents via UI Traces	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.66	Selective Safety Steering via Value-Filtered Decoding	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.66	Resolving Action Bottleneck: Agentic Reinforcement Learning Informed by Token-Level Energy	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.66	NodeSynth: Socially Aligned Synthetic Data for AI Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.66	Policy Optimization in Hybrid Discrete-Continuous Action Spaces via Mixed Gradients	arxiv 2026-05-14	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.66	How to Scale Mixture-of-Experts: From muP to the Maximally Scale-Stable Parameterization	arxiv 2026-05-13	238_072 Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days Emad Mostaque	AI	74%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 17?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will I use pattern/structure/structural/stance/substance/intent/level by 2026-06-15? [Convince the Machine #13](market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-05-15	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Change my view: artificial superintelligence is not as serious of a risk as Eliezer Yudkowsky claims it to be.(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-17	234_044 Intelligence does not have a fixed upper bound; governance will cap it before IQ Salim Ismail	AI	39%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will Bitcoin hit $73,000 or $83,000 first?	manifold 2026-05-18	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.66	Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) (CIK 0001375365)	edgar_8k 2026-05-18	SEM_018 SMIC (China) projected at only 100,000 wafers/month of advanced-process capacity by 2026 — severe constraint forcing algorithmic bypasses. SMIC (All-In Podcast analysis)	Semis	47%
0.66	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 19?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.66	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 19?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 1520-1559 tweets in May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.66	Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.66	EnvFactory: Scaling Tool-Use Agents via Executable Environments Synthesis and Robust RL	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.66	From Volume to Value: Preference-Aligned Memory Construction for On-Device RAG	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.66	Forward-Learned Discrete Diffusion: Learning how to noise to denoise faster	arxiv 2026-05-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.66	Federated Learning by Utility-Constrained Stochastic Aggregation for Improving Rational Participation	arxiv 2026-05-18	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.66	Lightweight Gaussian Process Inference in C++ on Metal and CUDA	arxiv 2026-05-18	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.66	CoX-MoE: Coalesced Expert Execution for High-Throughput MoE Inference with AMX-Enabled CPU-GPU Co-Execution	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.66	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2026-05-23	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-23	246_011 Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. Dave Blundin	AI	42%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.66	Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.66	Will "Implications Of Predicting The Next Token" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-27	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.66	2026 rate hike parlay (Fed + ECB + BOJ + BOE + PBC)(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-05-25	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.66	which will happen first? (Codeforces Rating)	manifold 2026-05-24	234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead	AI	41%
0.66	Locally Coherent, Globally Incoherent: Bounding Compositional Incoherence in Multi-Component LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.66	Gram: Assessing sabotage propensities via automated alignment auditing	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.66	Unifying Temporal and Structural Credit Assignment in LLM-Based Multi-Agent Prompt Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%