Validations Queue

107,075 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 410 of 496, 200 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

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SimDocSourcePredDomainPrior
0.57polymarket
2026-04-28
INF_069
Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an...
Michael Saylor
Crypto15%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-28
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets45%
0.57polymarket
2025-06-19
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2025-06-19
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2025-09-17
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-03
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-02
231_011
The country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war.
Peter Diamandis
Geopolitics55%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-03
247_025
Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics29%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-26
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-02
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-10
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2025-07-02
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-28
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57manifold
2026-04-28
240_048
Spreadsheet, SQL, code, UI jobs will be done by AI starting at end of this year
Dave Blundin
Labor/Jobs36%
0.57manifold
2026-04-28
247_045
1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026
Peter Diamandis
Robotics32%
0.57manifold
2026-04-25
247_018
First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy46%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-04-29
SEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets68%
0.57gdelt
2026-04-30
TK04
Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
25%
0.57gdelt
2026-04-30
CMQ_015
Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs.
Leopold Aschenbrenner
AI50%
0.57gdelt
2026-04-30
SEM_044
Blue Origin will land cargo at Shackleton Crater before SpaceX — validating lunar economy and resource extraction as immediate commercial priority.
Peter Diamandis
Space32%
0.57gdelt
2026-04-30
TK04
Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
25%
0.57gdelt
2026-04-30
CMQ_013
A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher.
Leopold Aschenbrenner
AI40%
0.57gdelt
2026-04-30
241_021
America can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildout
Eric Schmidt
Markets/Stocks47%
0.57gdelt
2026-04-30
238_005
By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.57
gdelt
2026-04-30
TK04
Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
25%
0.57gdelt
2026-04-30
SEM_022
FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development.
Dave Blundin
AI/Architecture65%
0.57gdelt
2026-04-30
TK11
Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)
10%
0.57gdelt
2026-04-30
TK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12%
0.57gdelt
2026-04-30
TK04
Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
25%
0.57gdelt
2026-04-30
TK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12%
0.57gdelt
2026-04-30
SEM_030
S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap).
Mike Wilson
Capital Markets43%
0.57
gdelt
2026-04-30
248_038
We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash.
Salim Ismail
Robotics34%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-30
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.57
Stars vs. Wild(market prob: 47%)
polymarket
2026-04-29
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-30
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-26
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics19%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2026-01-07
234_035
Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics36%
0.57manifold
2026-04-30
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57manifold
2026-04-30
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-04-30
246_010
SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks43%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-30
235_042
OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks39%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-30
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57
Golden Knights vs. Utah(market prob: 51%)
polymarket
2026-04-29
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-01
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics19%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-09
247_001
xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer
Peter Diamandis
AI42%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.57polymarket
2025-11-12
S_AI_PAUSE_2027
AI pause beginning 2027
ai_regulatory_pause10%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-02
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics19%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
241_061
China robots will compete as replacement for dogs / low-cost consumer use (now; useful later)
Eric Schmidt
Robotics44%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-06
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57
Netanyahu out by May 31?(market prob: 0%)
polymarket
2026-04-27
236_045
Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics41%
0.57
Netanyahu out by May 31?(market prob: 0%)
polymarket
2026-04-27
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2025-09-17
246_006
OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks37%
0.57polymarket
2025-11-12
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-02
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks35%
0.57polymarket
2026-01-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-03
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2025-06-19
243_001
Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing
Dara Khosrowshahi
Auto/Transport44%
0.57manifold
2026-05-04
FUT_019
Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i...
Multi-Forecaster Synthesis
Biotech/Longevity31%
0.57manifold
2026-05-04
INF_001
Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction.
Leopold Aschenbrenner
AI48%
0.57manifold
2026-05-04
INF_014
Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance.
Morgan Stanley
Energy42%
0.57manifold
2026-05-04
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57manifold
2026-05-04
231_005
Next year frontier reasoning costs will be pennies (down from ~$7 now).
Peter Diamandis
AI55%
0.57manifold
2026-05-04
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57
Spread: Pistons (-3.5)(market prob: 51%)
polymarket
2026-05-04
238_028
Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins)
Emad Mostaque
Markets/Stocks31%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-29
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-05
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-05
240_009
Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics32%
0.57polymarket
2025-10-09
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy36%
0.57manifold
2026-05-05
234_035
Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics36%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-05-05
240_034
Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028
Morgan Stanley
Energy47%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-05-05
COD_SPC_003
SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026
Codex Research Pack
Space28%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-05-05
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.57
FDA BLA761139: ENHERTU (FAM-TRASTUZUMAB DERUXTECAN-NXKI) — DAIICHI SANKYO
fda
2026-05-15
INF_027
AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC.
Demis Hassabis
Biotech/Longevity38%
0.57
FDA ANDA207037: OLMESARTAN MEDOXOMIL AND HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE (HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE) — ALKEM LABS LTD
fda
2026-04-23
SEM_014
Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).
Jensen Huang
Manufacturing86%
0.57
FDA ANDA219973: PANTOPRAZOLE SODIUM (PANTOPRAZOLE SODIUM) — SHUANGCHENG
fda
2026-04-22
242_048
FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence
Alex Wissner-Gross
Biotech/Longevity31%
0.57
FDA ANDA216068: ENZALUTAMIDE (ENZALUTAMIDE) — SANDOZ
fda
2026-04-20
COD_BIO_002
An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity50%
0.57
FDA ANDA220313: GLYCEROL PHENYLBUTYRATE (GLYCEROL PHENYLBUTYRATE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA
fda
2026-04-15
CMQ_010
True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient.
Demis Hassabis
AI49%
0.57
FDA ANDA219408: DAPAGLIFLOZIN (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — SCIEGEN PHARMACEUTICALS INC
fda
2026-04-30
COD_BIO_002
An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity50%
0.57github_release
2025-09-29
CYB_029
Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,...
Anthropic
AI80%
0.57github_release
2025-09-03
AUT_012
True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula...
Demis Hassabis
AI38%
0.57github_release
2025-08-13
237_019
Code generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript instead of Rust for memory safety.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.57github_release
2025-08-13
237_019
Code generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript instead of Rust for memory safety.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.57github_release
2024-10-24
INF_001
Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction.
Leopold Aschenbrenner
AI48%
0.57github_release
2024-10-29
INF_042
Current market panic over AI compute and power will follow the historical pattern 'shortage leads to oversupply' — trillions flowing into data centers, GPU manufacturing, and energy procurement will ultimately crash the marginal cost of both compute an...
Marc Andreessen
Macro/Economy48%
0.57github_release
2022-01-27
TK11
Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)
10%
0.57github_release
2023-08-29
CYB_009
Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par...
David Holz
AI77%
0.57
Spread: Knicks (-10.5)(market prob: 51%)
polymarket
2026-05-06
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-03
229_005
The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.
Brett Adcock
Robotics36%
0.57manifold
2026-05-04
235_015
GPT5-caliber model could shrink to 30-40B parameters, potentially as low as 1-2B or millions.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-05
ROB_027
The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ...
Nick Bostrom
AI40%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-04
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-05
229_028
Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders.
Brett Adcock
Robotics69%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-05
SEM_047
At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run.
Jimmy Ba
AI/Hardware71%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-04
235_037
Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-05
AUT_002
Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological...
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI59%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-05
231_004
The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI40%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-04
231_004
The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI40%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-04
CMQ_026
NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence.
Jensen Huang
Semis83%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-04
234_045
Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances
Alex Wissner-Gross
Space37%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-04
245_021
Engineered all-male screworms released via gene drive will cause species die-off over time
Ben Lamm
Biotech/Longevity45%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-04
SEM_022
FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development.
Dave Blundin
AI/Architecture65%
0.57
FDA ANDA210154: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — ZYDUS PHARMS
fda
2026-04-27
IND_010
Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front...
Jared Isaacman
Biotech/Longevity43%
0.57
FDA ANDA205756: METHYLPHENIDATE HYDROCHLORIDE (METHYLPHENIDATE HYDROCHLORIDE) — RISING
fda
2026-04-29
245_009
Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption
Peter Diamandis
Biotech/Longevity45%
0.57
FDA ANDA040719: METHYLPREDNISOLONE ACETATE (METHYLPREDNISOLONE ACETATE) — SANDOZ
fda
2026-04-10
COD_BIO_001
FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity47%
0.57
FDA NDA215430: AUVELITY (BUPROPION HYDROCHLORIDE) — AXSOME
fda
2026-04-30
COD_BIO_002
An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity50%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-06
TK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-07
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.57
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)(market prob: 38%)
polymarket
2026-05-05
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57manifold
2026-05-06
236_008
First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks53%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-06
FUT_020
Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m...
Multi-Forecaster Synthesis
Labor/Jobs45%
0.57github_release
2023-02-08
235_010
Plugins/marketplaces will get built into baseline models and won't need to exist independently.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI38%
0.57github_release
2023-02-01
248_022
Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Markets/Stocks42%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-02
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics19%
0.57polymarket
2026-01-04
SEM_016
Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chain resilience.
David Friedberg
Semis/Geopolitics20%
0.57manifold
2026-05-08
240_030
Tesla's independent chip production would derisk potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics35%
0.57manifold
2026-05-08
242_037
China will land on the moon before end of 2030
China (government)
Space46%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-07
242_043
AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-07
ROB_027
The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ...
Nick Bostrom
AI40%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-07
SEM_047
At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run.
Jimmy Ba
AI/Hardware71%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-07
238_070
Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced)
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-06
247_037
Quantum computing will not break Bitcoin (Mike Saylor position)
Michael Saylor
Crypto54%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-06
231_004
The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI40%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-06
242_043
AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-06
231_004
The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI40%
0.57
FDA BLA761183: TZIELD (TEPLIZUMAB-MZWV) — PROVENTION BIO INC
fda
2026-06-12
CMQ_026
NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence.
Jensen Huang
Semis83%
0.57
FDA BLA761183: TZIELD (TEPLIZUMAB-MZWV) — PROVENTION BIO INC
fda
2026-06-12
IND_010
Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front...
Jared Isaacman
Biotech/Longevity43%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2025-12-16
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-07
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-04
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-07
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-05-08
SEM_014
Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).
Jensen Huang
Manufacturing86%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-08
CMQ_027
The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+).
Jensen Huang
AI/Compute92%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-10
235_025
Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell.
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks32%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-10
TK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-09
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-02
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-09
235_025
Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell.
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks32%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-05-11
S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028
Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028
humanoid_deployment50%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-05-11
SEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets68%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-05-11
248_019
US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Space12%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-05-11
235_031
Eli Lilly perilously close to $1 trillion market cap at ~$950B.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Markets/Stocks39%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-05-11
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.57github_release
2025-10-28
232_014
Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI70%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-12
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-27
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.57polymarket
2026-04-30
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-06
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI37%
0.57polymarket
2025-10-09
231_016
Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will go away.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI41%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-12
240_009
Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics32%
0.57polymarket
2025-11-28
236_003
Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs49%
0.57polymarket
2026-02-09
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks36%
0.57polymarket
2025-11-12
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.57manifold
2026-05-12
S_AI_PAUSE_2027
AI pause beginning 2027
ai_regulatory_pause10%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-05-12
TK12
Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)
8%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-05-12
TK12
Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)
8%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-05-12
TK12
Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)
8%
0.57github_release
2025-11-11
232_014
Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI70%
0.57github_release
2025-01-31
CMQ_026
NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence.
Jensen Huang
Semis83%
0.57
Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)(market prob: 46%)
polymarket
2026-05-05
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets53%
0.57manifold
2026-05-13
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI20%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-05-13
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-05-13
SEM_014
Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).
Jensen Huang
Manufacturing86%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-05-13
SEM_039
Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory.
Jack Dorsey
Semis/ASICs83%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-10
TK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12%
0.57edgar_8k
2026-05-14
SEM_014
Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).
Jensen Huang
Manufacturing86%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-13
INF_035
Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo...
Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)
Semis65%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-13
242_048
FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence
Alex Wissner-Gross
Biotech/Longevity31%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-13
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.57
FDA NDA205422: REXULTI (BREXPIPRAZOLE) — OTSUKA
fda
2026-04-30
233_019
Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback.
Joe Liemandt
Education35%
0.57
FDA NDA205422: REXULTI (BREXPIPRAZOLE) — OTSUKA
fda
2026-04-30
IND_010
Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front...
Jared Isaacman
Biotech/Longevity43%
0.57
FDA NDA021343: ELIGARD KIT (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — TOLMAR
fda
2026-05-06
242_048
FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence
Alex Wissner-Gross
Biotech/Longevity31%
0.57polymarket
2026-01-07
FUT_014
'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl...
Ian Bremmer
Geopolitics55%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-14
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-14
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-14
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-12
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.57polymarket
2026-05-15
235_025
Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell.
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks32%
0.57manifold
2026-05-15
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-14
CMQ_058
Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency.
Alex Finn
AI/Compute59%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-14
AI_025
Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps.
Mark Cuban
AI60%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-14
247_050
Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing
Alex Wissner-Gross
Biotech/Longevity44%
0.57arxiv
2026-05-14
235_037
Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%