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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | ||
| 0.58 | Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-21 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.58 | Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day next week?(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 243_042 Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forward Dara Khosrowshahi | Consumer | 51% | |
| 0.58 | Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2025-07-28 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 244_026 Uber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035 Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_014 Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | S_AI_PAUSE_2028 AI pause beginning 2028 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | COD_SPC_004 Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 48% | ||
| 0.58 | US Consumer Price Index (April '26) < 3.55%(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs L1ga Team (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 30% | |
| 0.58 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-17 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-05 | COD_AI_004 Frontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | AI | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-04 | COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 27% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-05-05 | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang | Policy/Semis | 66% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-05-05 | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-05-05 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-05-04 | TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event | — | 15% | ||
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA219257: ANDA219257 ((unspecified)) — RENATA LIMITED | fda 2026-04-08 | 248_030 FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA220274: SODIUM ACETATE (SODIUM ACETATE) — EXTROVIS | fda 2026-04-17 | 247_041 AI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 55% | |
| 0.58 | FDA BLA125514: KEYTRUDA (PEMBROLIZUMAB) — MERCK SHARP DOHME | fda 2026-06-12 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA215243: RAMELTEON (RAMELTEON) — MICRO LABS | fda 2026-06-04 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | |
| 0.58 | github_release 2025-01-24 | 235_010 Plugins/marketplaces will get built into baseline models and won't need to exist independently. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.58 | github_release 2025-09-09 | 240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.58 | github_release 2025-09-09 | CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn | AI/Compute | 59% | ||
| 0.58 | github_release 2022-12-16 | 229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 69% | ||
| 0.58 | github_release 2022-01-27 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | github_release 2020-06-12 | CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz | AI | 77% | ||
| 0.58 | 76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?(market prob: 80%) | polymarket 2025-12-17 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 231_049 If privacy is cooked, then crypto is cooked (private keys compromised). Alex Wissner-Gross | Crypto | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 29% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang | AI/Compute | 92% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Physics | 56% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | 240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | 234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA218897: VALSARTAN (VALSARTAN) — LAURUS | fda 2026-04-21 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA220493: BUPIVACAINE HYDROCHLORIDE (BUPIVACAINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — ANTHEA PHARMA | fda 2026-04-22 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.58 | FDA BLA761451: SAPHNELO (ANIFROLIMAB-FNIA) — ASTRAZENECA AB | fda 2026-04-24 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | |
| 0.58 | FDA NDA020941: ABREVA (DOCOSANOL) — HALEON US HOLDINGS | fda 2026-04-14 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Thunder (-15.5)(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10?(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.58 | Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-07 | FUT_023 'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 68% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 238_039 Apple's underused unified memory overhang will likely collapse within the next year Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 29% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.58 | FDA NDA212122: BREZTRI AEROSPHERE (BUDESONIDE) — ASTRAZENECA AB | fda 2026-04-27 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.58 | FDA BLA761328: BEYFORTUS (NIRSEVIMAB-ALIP) — ASTRAZENECA AB | fda 2026-04-07 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | |
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA210435: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — CIPLA | fda 2026-04-27 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | |
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA210449: CANAGLIFLOZIN (CANAGLIFLOZIN) — APOTEX | fda 2026-04-14 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.58 | github_release 2025-01-27 | CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn | AI | 55% | ||
| 0.58 | github_release 2025-04-25 | SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin | AI/Architecture | 65% | ||
| 0.58 | github_release 2023-02-08 | 248_050 Opus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | github_release 2024-03-29 | CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn | AI/Compute | 59% | ||
| 0.58 | Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 72%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | 232_044 There will be police agents, defense agents, and public health agents monitoring rogue AI agents via defensive co-scaling. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz | Semis | 71% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | 229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | 229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | 238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | CMQ_059 Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds. Alex Finn | AI | 56% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley | AI/Compute | 35% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | 242_002 Long-term petawatt compute will come only from lunar mass drivers Peter Diamandis | Space | 37% | ||
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA213912: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — MYLAN | fda 2026-04-27 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 211.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.58 | Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOUD (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 20% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-09 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-09 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-05-08 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-05-08 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.58 | LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: NRG vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.58 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 29% | |
| 0.58 | Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.58 | Do you like 54% odds?(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 238_016 Figure CEO Brett Adcock will appear at Abundance Summit next year (2027) with a Figure robot for Peter Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-05-11 | CMQ_051 Humanoid robots total addressable market by 2040: lower bound 1 billion units (exceeding cars on Earth); upper bound 10+ billion units. Brett Adcock / Elon Musk / Vinod Khosla | Robotics | 37% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-05-11 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-05-11 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-05-11 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-05-11 | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.58 | github_release 2026-04-16 | AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban | AI | 60% | ||
| 0.58 | github_release 2025-07-01 | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 78% | ||
| 0.58 | github_release 2025-06-10 | CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic | AI | 80% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 233_011 Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption. Joe Liemandt | Education | 37% | ||
| 0.58 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 35% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.58 | Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | |
| 0.58 | Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.58 | Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.58 | Will AC Goianiense vs. São Bernardo FC end in a draw?(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-05-12 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-05-12 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-05-12 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.58 | FDA BLA761291: TECVAYLI (TECLISTAMAB-CQYV) — JANSSEN BIOTECH | fda 2026-05-06 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.58 | github_release 2025-11-11 | CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz | AI | 77% | ||
| 0.58 | github_release 2024-03-21 | 232_010 Voice becomes the new interface in the AI era, replacing typing. Peter Diamandis | AI | 52% | ||
| 0.58 | github_release 2023-08-07 | AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy | AI | 90% | ||
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: ZYB Esport vs Vitality.Bee (BO3) - LFL Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 62% | |
| 0.58 | Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14?(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | CMQ_018 By 2027-2028, the strategic value of superintelligence + impossible trillion-dollar infrastructure cost will trigger government consolidation of AGI development — 'The Project'. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Geopolitics | 35% | |
| 0.58 | Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-13 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | Can anyone get talkie-1930 to describe Chomskian recursive syntax?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 230_004 We are past the edge of a new recursive self-improvement era where models rewrite their own code. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 25% | |
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-05-13 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-12 | IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba | AI | 79% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-12 | AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-12 | 229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 69% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-12 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-12 | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | 15% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-12 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.58 | FDA NDA020578: ZOLADEX (GOSERELIN ACETATE) — TERSERA | fda 2026-05-06 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA071199: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — BARR | fda 2026-05-05 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.58 | Game Handicap: BRO (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5)(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-13 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-13 | AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA205402: PALIPERIDONE (PALIPERIDONE) — I3 PHARMS | fda 2026-05-07 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.58 | FDA NDA219835: VEPPANU (VEPDEGESTRANT) — ARVINAS OPERATIONS | fda 2026-05-01 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.58 | github_release 2025-12-18 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: paiN vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will Delhi Capitals win the 2026 Indian Premier League?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-24 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.58 | Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-05-15 | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-14 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-14 | 238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | FDA BLA761347: TECENTRIQ HYBREZA (ATEZOLIZUMAB AND HYALURONIDASE-TQJS) — GENENTECH INC | fda 2026-05-15 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA220679: DAPAGLIFLOZIN (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — CENTAUR PHARMACEUTICALS PRIVATE LIMITED | fda 2026-05-06 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-16 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.58 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2025-07-16 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.58 | Will I buy gasoline for more than $5/gallon this year (USA)(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 231_005 Next year frontier reasoning costs will be pennies (down from ~$7 now). Peter Diamandis | AI | 55% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA217761: SPIRONOLACTONE (SPIRONOLACTONE) — ANNORA PHARMA | fda 2026-05-12 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA075471: LEUPROLIDE ACETATE (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — MEITHEAL | fda 2026-05-06 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA204741: CAPECITABINE (CAPECITABINE) — AMNEAL PHARMS | fda 2026-05-07 | 247_041 AI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 55% | |
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA200880: ACETAZOLAMIDE SODIUM (ACETAZOLAMIDE SODIUM) — MYLAN ASI | fda 2026-05-07 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.58 | github_release 2022-05-17 | 241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.58 | github_release 2022-05-17 | AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban | AI | 60% | ||
| 0.58 | github_release 2021-04-28 | 237_002 We will see a lot of evolution and many OpenClaw variants emerging very quickly as an early domain being developed. Peter Diamandis | AI | 55% | ||
| 0.58 | github_release 2021-02-01 | 241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.58 | github_release 2020-09-03 | 248_037 State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 14% | ||
| 0.58 | github_release 2020-08-18 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | ||
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Keir Starmer out before September 1 2026?(market prob: 86%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin | AI | 21% | ||
| 0.58 | Will I be a finalist in the 2026 ACX book review contest?(market prob: 23%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.58 | Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19?(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19?(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19?(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.58 | Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19?(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-05-18 | CYB_018 Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — backed by concentrated collective capital of the AI hardware-software industry (Microsoft, NVIDIA, OpenAI), signaling industry-wide belief that humanoid r... Brett Adcock | Robotics | 69% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-05-18 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-17 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will Hull City AFC vs. Southampton FC end in a draw?(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-05-19 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-18 | SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba | AI/Hardware | 71% | ||
| 0.58 | LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-24 | SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-02-20 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-05 | 247_037 Quantum computing will not break Bitcoin (Mike Saylor position) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 54% | |
| 0.58 | Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% |