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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.58	A Unified Benchmark for Evaluating Knowledge Graph Construction Methods and Graph Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-06	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.58	First next-to-next-to-leading-order extraction of fragmentation functions for Lambda hyperons	arxiv 2026-05-06	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.58	Landscape of Spontaneous CP Violation	arxiv 2026-05-06	240_012 Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few years Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Emergence of conformal properties in Finite Grand Unified Theories via reduction of couplings	arxiv 2026-05-06	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.58	Neutrino Flavor Transformation in Collapsing Supermassive Objects	arxiv 2026-05-05	231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	8%
0.58	Spread: Thunder (-8.5)(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-15	TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	—	10%
0.58	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	229_037 With humanoids, Greenland mineral extraction becomes viable even though Europeans at Davos say it's impossible. Peter Diamandis	Energy	21%
0.58	Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-03-18	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.58	Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.58	APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS, INC. (AAOI) (CIK 0001158114)	edgar_8k 2026-05-08	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-07-21	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Will I’ll from steam will come out before ps6?	manifold 2026-05-10	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.58	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.58	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.58	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16?(market prob: 84%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-14	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.58	What will be the outcome of the EEOC suit against the NYT?	manifold 2026-05-11	234_036 Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate Alex Wissner-Gross	Labor/Jobs	29%
0.58	Do you like 54% odds?(market prob: 54%)	manifold 2026-05-11	247_013 99% of randomly selected white collar jobs could be replaced by AI today Peter Dannenberg	Labor/Jobs	22%
0.58	Will the UK introduce proportional representation for general elections before 2030?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-05-11	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.58	Who will own the pinky of @draaglom at EOY 2026?	manifold 2026-05-11	S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028 Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028	humanoid_deployment	50%
0.58	Will national dry van spot rate be $1.75–$2.00/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-10	244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.58	GENERAL DYNAMICS CORP (GD) (CIK 0000040533)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.58	Navitas Semiconductor Corp (NVTS) (CIK 0001821769)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.58	facebookresearch/spdl v0.1.6	github_release 2025-10-28	238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	78%
0.58	facebookresearch/spdl v0.1.0	github_release 2025-06-10	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.58	Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.58	Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 78%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.58	Will AC Goianiense vs. São Bernardo FC end in a draw?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Will Ciconia: When They Cry Phase 2 be released by the end of 2026?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-12	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.58	What will my Zetamac score (average of 5) be in a week?	manifold 2026-05-11	234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead	AI	41%
0.58	SPX Technologies, Inc. (SPXC) (CIK 0000088205)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Nextpower Inc. (NXT) (CIK 0001852131)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.58	InnovAge Holding Corp. (INNV) (CIK 0001834376)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.58	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 2.1.2	github_release 2026-04-10	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.58	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.7.1	github_release 2025-11-11	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.58	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.6.0	github_release 2025-05-14	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.58	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.5.6	github_release 2024-12-05	AUT_021 Defining software movement of 2026: startups building autonomous platforms specifically designed to clean/structure/continuously validate multimodal data — unstructured corporate sludge (PDFs, logs, videos, emails) causes autonomous agentic workflows t... Marc Andreessen	AI	52%
0.58	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.0.0	github_release 2023-06-16	234_004 Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi	Other	53%
0.58	Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.58	LoL: ZYB Esport vs Vitality.Bee (BO3) - LFL Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.58	Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-05-13?(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?(market prob: 63%)	polymarket 2025-12-01	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.58	Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	20%
0.58	Who will be Riau rank 1 on the provincial round of 2026 Indonesia National Math Olympiad?	manifold 2026-05-13	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS, INC. (AAOI) (CIK 0001158114)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Navitas Semiconductor Corp (NVTS) (CIK 0001821769)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.58	AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES INC (AKAM) (CIK 0001086222)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.58	ORCE: Order-Aware Alignment of Verbalized Confidence in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-12	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.58	Online Learning-to-Defer with Varying Experts	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.58	Anomaly-Aware Vision-Language Adapters for Zero-Shot Anomaly Detection	arxiv 2026-05-12	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Random-Set Graph Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Martingale-Consistent Self-Supervised Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.58	Learning Feature Encoder with Synthetic Anomalies for Weakly Supervised Graph Anomaly Detection	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	LoL: Shifters vs Galions - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.58	Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.58	Will Russell Henley win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.58	APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE (AMAT) (CIK 0000006951)	edgar_8k 2026-05-14	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.58	APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS, INC. (AAOI) (CIK 0001158114)	edgar_8k 2026-05-14	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	DisAgg: Distributed Aggregators for Efficient Secure Aggregation in Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.58	Multimodal Graph-based Classification of Esophageal Motility Disorders	arxiv 2026-05-13	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.58	FDA NDA212306: XPOVIO (SELINEXOR) — KARYOPHARM THERAPS	fda 2026-04-30	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	FDA ANDA218093: FLECAINIDE ACETATE (FLECAINIDE ACETATE) — OMSAV PHARMA	fda 2026-04-22	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.58	Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 209.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.58	Spread: Spurs (-5.5)(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Zagreb: Jan Choinski vs Arthur Fery(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?(market prob: 92%)	polymarket 2026-02-13	232_020 Real danger that US slows AI enough to fall behind China, losing control over societal outcomes. Ben Horowitz	Geopolitics	48%
0.58	Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.58	Will SD Eibar win on 2026-05-16?(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.58	Will Timothee Chalamet and Kylie Jenner announce their engagement before 2027?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-05-15	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.58	Will Timothee Chalamet and Kylie Jenner announce their engagement before 2027?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-05-15	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.58	China mainland will have the broadcasting rights for the World Cup 2026 by the end of May 2026(market prob: 86%)	manifold 2026-05-12	229_004 By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.58	How will I perform at IPhO 2026?	manifold 2026-05-10	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.58	Causal Foundation Models with Continuous Treatments	arxiv 2026-05-14	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	DiffusionOPD: A Unified Perspective of On-Policy Distillation in Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-05-14	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.58	nASR: An End-to-End Trainable Neural Layer for Channel-Level EEG Artifact Subspace Reconstruction in Real-Time BCI	arxiv 2026-05-14	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.58	GPart: End-to-End Isometric Fine-Tuning via Global Parameter Partitioning	arxiv 2026-05-14	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.58	When Answers Stray from Questions: Hallucination Detection via Question-Answer Orthogonal Decomposition	arxiv 2026-05-14	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.58	Active Learners as Efficient PRP Rerankers	arxiv 2026-05-14	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.58	FDA BLA761304: VYVGART HYTRULO (EFGARTIGIMOD ALFA AND HYALURONIDASE-QVFC) — ARGENX BV	fda 2026-05-08	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	238_058 Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 years Salim Ismail	Macro/Economy	24%
0.58	Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.58	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-07	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	O/U 2.5 Rounds(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	238_059 Era of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as XPRIZE takes hold Salim Ismail	Macro/Economy	42%
0.58	O/U 2.5 Rounds(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Andy Burnham PM before 1 November 2026?(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-05-16	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.58	Mina the Hollower MEGAMARKET	manifold 2026-05-16	234_032 Market for humanoids and general purpose automation will be $50 trillion Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	29%
0.58	Will SPY close above $739.17 on Friday, May 22, 2026?(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-16	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.58	FDA ANDA204345: CAPECITABINE (CAPECITABINE) — DR REDDYS	fda 2026-05-07	247_041 AI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	55%
0.58	FDA ANDA204741: CAPECITABINE (CAPECITABINE) — AMNEAL PHARMS	fda 2026-05-07	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.58	facebookresearch/hydra v1.1.1	github_release 2021-08-19	248_037 State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	14%
0.58	facebookresearch/hydra v1.0.7	github_release 2021-07-15	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.58	Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-17	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.58	Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Driver allowed to sleep while car drives itself by?	manifold 2026-05-17	238_019 Jevons Paradox will keep demand for human drivers in non-autonomous areas even as cars are automated Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.58	How many World Cup match will go over 100 minutes? (Regular time only)	manifold 2026-05-17	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.58	Will I be a finalist in the 2026 ACX book review contest?(market prob: 23%)	manifold 2026-05-16	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.58	Will SPY close above $750 on Monday, May 18, 2026?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-16	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Who will be DKI Jakarta rank 1 on the provincial round of 2026 Indonesia National Math Olympiad?	manifold 2026-05-14	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-17	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.58	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5(market prob: 40%)	polymarket 2026-05-17	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.58	Will MrBeast become a billionaire before age 35?(market prob: 97%)	manifold 2026-05-18	238_052 $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) Elon Musk	Markets/Stocks	24%
0.58	DOMINION ENERGY, INC (D) (CIK 0000715957)	edgar_8k 2026-05-18	240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.58	DOMINION ENERGY, INC (D) (CIK 0000715957)	edgar_8k 2026-05-18	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	InnovAge Holding Corp. (INNV) (CIK 0001834376)	edgar_8k 2026-05-18	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.58	AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES INC (AKAM) (CIK 0001086222)	edgar_8k 2026-05-18	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.58	Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	42%
0.58	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?(market prob: 34%)	polymarket 2026-03-30	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.58	Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24?(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.58	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24?(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A(market prob: 72%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.58	Fed Hike or Cut First?	manifold 2026-05-19	232_052 Lowered interest rates will drive AI agent and robot purchases instead of hiring. Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	46%
0.58	Physics-Aligned Canonical Equivariant Fourier Neural Operator under Symmetry-Induced Shifts	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.58	pyforce-1.0.0: Python Framework for data-driven model Order Reduction of multi-physiCs problEms	arxiv 2026-05-18	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.58	Universal Adversarial Triggers	arxiv 2026-05-18	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.58	When a Zero-Shooter Cheats: Improving Age Estimation via Activation Steering	arxiv 2026-05-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	FDA ANDA203512: SPIRONOLACTONE (SPIRONOLACTONE) — ACCORD HLTHCARE	fda 2026-05-12	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	FDA ANDA210689: FOSAPREPITANT DIMEGLUMINE (FOSAPREPITANT DIMEGLUMINE) — LUPIN	fda 2026-04-30	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Spread: Spurs (-9.5)(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Will Victoria Mboko win the 2026 Women’s French Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	[short fuse] What was the source of the explosion-like sound heard in New England? [add responses]	manifold 2026-05-30	237_018 We are seeing a Cambrian explosion of OpenClaw variants (PicoClaw, IronClaw, NanoClaw, Nanobot, etc.) with many more to come. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.58	Will Bricks and Minifigs corporate declare bankruptcy in the USA by the end of 2029?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-27	S_RECESSION_2027 NBER recession declared 2027	macro_recession	30%
0.58	Will my resin casted pepperoni mold within one year from today?(market prob: 81%)	manifold 2026-05-26	CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	84%
0.58	What makes people happy? [Resolves to LLM deep research]	manifold 2026-05-25	241_048 AI/LLM will be the expression platform for student art, music, writing Eric Schmidt	Education	51%
0.58	How many individuals will qualify for tiebreakers at ARML 2026?	manifold 2026-05-25	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.58	How many individuals will qualify for tiebreakers at ARML 2026?	manifold 2026-05-25	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.58	Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR) (CIK 0001761312)	edgar_8k 2026-05-29	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.58	When, why, and how do diffusion posterior samplers fail? A finite-sample lens	arxiv 2026-05-28	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	GRASP: Plan-Guided Graph Retrieval with Adaptive Fusion and Reranking on Semi-Structured Knowledge Bases	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.58	Visual Spatial Learning: Single-Field Spatial Interpolation Using Convolutional Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.58	Diffusion Models Are Statistically Optimal for Learning Low-Dimensional Multi-Modal Distributions	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_005 Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics olympiads while simultaneously failing rudimentary arithmetic and spatial logic; true AGI requires smoothing these jagged edges via continual learning, d... Demis Hassabis	AI	83%
0.58	CLUBench: A Clustering Benchmark	arxiv 2026-05-28	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.58	A Geometric View of SRC: Learning Representations for Stable Residual Inference	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Dial HEALTHDIAL for Advice: A Multilingual and Multi-Parallel Spoken Dialogue Dataset for Knowledge-Grounded Information Seeking	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.58	Enhancing Factuality through Consensus and Consistency in Summarization Using Minimum Bayes Risk Decoding	arxiv 2026-05-28	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.58	Enhancing Factuality through Consensus and Consistency in Summarization Using Minimum Bayes Risk Decoding	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	HyperPrecision: A Mathematica package for High-Precision Numerical Evaluation of Multivariate Hypergeometric Functions	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.58	Non-Perturbative Closed Form for the Typical Bipartite Mutual Information of Haar-Random States	arxiv 2026-05-28	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.58	FDA ANDA209224: LACOSAMIDE (LACOSAMIDE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-05-22	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.58	FDA BLA761452: IMMGOLIS (GOLIMUMAB-SLDI) — ACCORD BIOPHARMA INC.	fda 2026-05-15	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.58	FDA ANDA091404: MEROPENEM (MEROPENEM) — ACS DOBFAR	fda 2026-05-20	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.58	FDA ANDA216453: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — ELITE LABS INC	fda 2026-05-27	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.58	FDA ANDA211035: VERAPAMIL HYDROCHLORIDE (VERAPAMIL HYDROCHLORIDE) — SOMERSET	fda 2026-05-20	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will the US average gas price fall below $4.00 in June 2026?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-31	FUT_011 By 2050: solar PV generation costs plunge below 0.5 cents per kWh in optimal geographic locations; below 1 cent per kWh across vast majority of globe; even in poorest-irradiance/highest-regulatory-burden regions costs not exceeding 1.5 cents per kWh. 2... Ramez Naam	Energy	45%
0.58	Will Bayern Munich win the 2026/2027 Bundesliga season(market prob: 75%)	manifold 2026-05-31	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.58	Will Bayern Munich win the 2026/2027 Bundesliga season(market prob: 75%)	manifold 2026-05-31	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2025-12-29	239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk	AI	47%
0.58	Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?(market prob: 85%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.58	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-19	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.58	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-19	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	20%
0.58	Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-06-01	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.58	In the which years will the CDC report more measles cases in the US than 2026?	manifold 2026-06-01	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.58	Will GMail get blocked in Russia by the end of 2026(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-06-01	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.58	Will GMail get blocked in Russia by the end of 2026(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-06-01	S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path	agi_general_capability	35%
0.58	DYCOM INDUSTRIES INC (DY) (CIK 0000067215)	edgar_8k 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	FDA ANDA220499: ANDA220499 ((unspecified)) — ALEMBIC PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED	fda 2026-05-13	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.58	FDA BLA761394: DATROWAY (DATOPOTAMAB DERUXTECAN-DLNK) — DAIICHI SANKYO INC	fda 2026-05-22	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	FDA ANDA211255: LINACLOTIDE (LINACLOTIDE) — ACTAVIS LABS FL INC	fda 2026-05-19	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2025-07-11	FUT_014 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	55%
0.58	Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Team Yandex (+1.5)(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Who will make the second round of the 2027 French Presidental Election?	manifold 2026-06-02	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.58	Which will be the best meme posted in #memefold in June 2026 according to Manifold?	manifold 2026-06-01	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.58	Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) (CIK 0001596532)	edgar_8k 2026-06-02	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.58	Mitigating Perceptual Judgment Bias in Multimodal LLM-as-a-Judge via Perceptual Perturbation and Reward Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-01	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.58	Predicting the risk of colorectal anastomotic leak based on preoperative mapping of the blood supply of the bowel	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Estimating Mutual Information between Time Series and Temporal Event Sequences Across Diverse Analysis Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-01	234_003 Within 1-2 years we will look back and wonder why training was centralized while inference was decentralized Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.58	Estimating Mutual Information between Time Series and Temporal Event Sequences Across Diverse Analysis Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-01	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Semantic Retrieval for Product Search in E-Commerce	arxiv 2026-05-31	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.58	Perception First: A Frontier Native-Video Model with Self-Consistency for Implicit Video Question Answering	arxiv 2026-05-31	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.58	Towards Multidisciplinary Summarization of Hospital Stays: Efficient Sentence-Level Clinical Provenance Categorization	arxiv 2026-06-01	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.58	Eyettention II: A Dual-Sequence Architecture for Modeling Fixation Location, Within-Word Landing Position, and Fixation Duration in Reading	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Efficient RAG with Intent-Aware Retrieval and Semantics-Preserving Chunking	arxiv 2026-05-31	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.58	DiscourseFlip: An Oblique Discourse-Level Opinion Manipulation Attack against Black-box Retrieval-Augmented Generation	arxiv 2026-05-31	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.58	PMC-InterCPT: Rethinking Biomedical Interleaved Data for Multimodal Continued Pretraining	arxiv 2026-05-31	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.58	FDA ANDA201749: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — SUN PHARM	fda 2026-05-27	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.2.4	github_release 2023-03-31	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.58	Spread: Spurs (-2.5)(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Japan?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) (CIK 0001730168)	edgar_8k 2026-06-03	S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028 Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028	humanoid_deployment	50%
0.58	FDA ANDA076521: CARBIDOPA AND LEVODOPA (CARBIDOPA) — IMPAX LABS	fda 2026-05-28	245_009 Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	45%
0.58	Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.58	Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2025-12-15	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%