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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.57	Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Spread: Belgium (-1.5)(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	T20 Blast: Kent vs Nottinghamshire(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-03-30	241_040 A Chernobyl-like AI tragedy is likely to happen, will awaken world to act Eric Schmidt	AI	46%
0.57	Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	How long will the streak of unique NBA champions last?	manifold 2026-06-26	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Game 1 FIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Result?	manifold 2026-06-26	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.57	When Fable access returns, will it be available as part of the monthly paid plan?(market prob: 76%)	manifold 2026-06-26	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? [Polymarket](market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-25	243_025 Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.57	Event-Aware Instructed Assistant for Referring Video Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.57	Event-Aware Instructed Assistant for Referring Video Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.57	Robust Onion: Peeling Open Vocab Object Detectors Under Noise	arxiv 2026-06-25	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.57	Just how sure are you? Improving Verbalized Uncertainty Calibration in Medical VQA	arxiv 2026-06-25	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.57	LearniBridge: Learnable Calibration of Feature Caching for Diffusion Models Acceleration	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	State-Specific Respiratory Signatures for Affective and Stress Recognition: Interpretable Respiratory Markers, Autocorrelation Lags, and Compact CNN Models	arxiv 2026-06-25	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.57	Probing Probability Geometry with Schwinger--Dyson Identities: Score Mismatch, Fisher Information, and Configurational Temperature	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.57	Laplace Space for Cosmological Correlators	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.57	Characteristic Lightcone Sources in SO(1,3) Yang-Mills Theory	arxiv 2026-06-25	232_015 AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the next two years. Dave Blundin	AI	32%
0.57	Characteristic Lightcone Sources in SO(1,3) Yang-Mills Theory	arxiv 2026-06-25	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.57	The gauge invariance of non-perturbative vertex prescriptions	arxiv 2026-06-25	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.57	FDA NDA209777: ROXYBOND (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — PROTEGA PHARMS	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Elly De La Cruz win the 2026 National League MVP Award?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-18	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 3 Uzbekistan?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria?(market prob: 20%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	241_028 US losing electric vehicle industry to China was an error that will repeat in robotics unless addressed Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	48%
0.57	DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	FDA ANDA202991: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — RHODES PHARMS	fda 2026-06-18	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	Spread: Colombia (-1.5)(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.57	Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google	AI	46%
0.57	Iran full airspace closure by July 15?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google	AI	46%
0.57	Will the Democratic Nominee in 2028 say “genocide”?(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-06-28	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	36%
0.57	Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-01	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Belgium win the World Cup?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5(market prob: 72%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.57	Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Morocco?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	How many Trump districts will House Democrats win in 2026?	manifold 2026-06-29	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Do you like 34% odds?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-06-30	242_028 AI could automate 25% of US work hours Goldman Sachs	Labor/Jobs	39%
0.57	Which teams will be relegated after the 2026/27 Premier League season?	manifold 2026-06-30	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	PromptGNN-sim: Deep Fusion and Alignment of GNN and LLMs for Text-Attributed Graph Learning	arxiv 2026-06-29	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.57	Exploiting Local Flatness for Efficient Out-of-Distribution Detection	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	CW-B: Class Weighted Boosting Framework for Imbalance Resilient Multi Class Cardiac Phenotyping	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	LLM-based Multimodal Personality Recognition via Facial Action Unit-Text Semantic Fusion	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.57	The Hidden Cost of Resampling: How Imbalance Correction Degrades Probability Calibration in Tree Ensembles	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.57	Node-to-Neighborhood Semantic Consistency: Text-Topology Alignment for TAGs Anomaly Detection	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Multi-Block Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.57	Self-supervised Geometry Reasoning for LiDAR Simultaneous Localization and Mapping	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.57	A thermal representation for conformal ladder integrals	arxiv 2026-06-29	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.57	Positivity properties of observables in planar maximally supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.57	Quantum (non)equivalence of dual massive $p$-form gauge theories	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.57	Searching for the $G(3900)$ via the $K^- p \to D_s^- Λ_c^+ G(3900)^0$ reaction	arxiv 2026-06-28	S_COMPUTE_10GW_2028 Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028	compute_scale	40%
0.57	facebookresearch/ProgramBench v1.2.3	github_release 2026-06-29	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.57	Will Corey Seager win the 2026 American League MVP Award?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-18	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	LoL: Kaufland Hangry Knights vs BIG (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division Regular Season(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5(market prob: 36%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Will LeBron James play for the Brooklyn Nets in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Milan: Completed Match: Juan Martin vs David Jorda Sanchis(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Paraguay vs. France: Team to Advance(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Bosnia and Herzegovina?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5(market prob: 95%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	What will the peak player count of Destiny 2 on Steam be for December 2026?	manifold 2026-07-01	240_010 NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.57	What will the peak player count of Destiny 2 on Steam be for December 2026?	manifold 2026-07-01	248_031 Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	39%
0.57	Number of people Trump pardons on July 4, 2026?	manifold 2026-07-01	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.57	Will I hear at least once this week the word "stairs" during this week? (In any language)(market prob: 56%)	manifold 2026-06-30	238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	78%
0.57	EXXON MOBIL CORP (XOM) (CIK 0000034088)	edgar_8k 2026-07-01	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	28%
0.57	EXXON MOBIL CORP (XOM) (CIK 0000034088)	edgar_8k 2026-07-01	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Eos Energy Enterprises, Inc. (EOSE) (CIK 0001805077)	edgar_8k 2026-07-01	S_COMPUTE_1GW_2027 Compute: 1GW operational by Jun 2027	compute_scale	60%
0.57	ChargePoint Holdings, Inc. (CHPT) (CIK 0001777393)	edgar_8k 2026-06-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Eos Energy Enterprises, Inc. (EOSE) (CIK 0001805077)	edgar_8k 2026-06-30	S_COMPUTE_1GW_2027 Compute: 1GW operational by Jun 2027	compute_scale	60%
0.57	WIDER-FAIR: An Annotated Version of the WIDER-FACE Dataset for Fairness Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-30	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.57	Patch-PODiff-ViT: Structured Latent Diffusion with Patchwise POD for Super-Resolution and Uncertainty Quantification	arxiv 2026-06-30	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Sequential sparse Gaussian process quantile regression	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	Learning Gaussian Graphical Models from a Glauber Trajectory Without Mixing	arxiv 2026-06-30	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	Will a player representing Switzerland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Switzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Switzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal O/U 2.5(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Valorant: REBORN vs Enterprise Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	35%
0.57	Will Matteo Berrettini be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.57	A Lightweight Self-Supervised Learning Framework for Multivariate Time Series using Hierarchical-JEPA on ECG Data	arxiv 2026-07-01	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.57	Logit-Contribution Scoring Identifies Non-Literal Retrieval Heads	arxiv 2026-07-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	PRISM: Prioritized Channel Importance with Semi-supervised Domain Adaptation for Cross-Subject EEG Emotion Recognition	arxiv 2026-07-01	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.57	FDA ANDA079087: OXYMORPHONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYMORPHONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — IMPAX LABS	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance(market prob: 34%)	polymarket 2026-07-03	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Miami Marlins vs. Athletics(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will Lewis Hamilton achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Egypt be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	238_059 Era of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as XPRIZE takes hold Salim Ismail	Macro/Economy	42%
0.57	Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-01-07	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	NextDecade Corp (NEXT) (CIK 0001612720)	edgar_8k 2026-07-02	SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore	Semis/Products	62%
0.57	Eos Energy Enterprises, Inc. (EOSE) (CIK 0001805077)	edgar_8k 2026-07-02	S_COMPUTE_1GW_2027 Compute: 1GW operational by Jun 2027	compute_scale	60%
0.57	FDA BLA761263: LUNSUMIO VELO (MOSUNETUZUMAB-AXGB) — GENENTECH INC	fda 2026-06-18	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.57	Will Kevin McGonigle hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Tiafoe vs. Bublik: Match O/U 40.5(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.57	Valorant: NRG Academy vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Playoffs(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-07-04	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.57	Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5)(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-07-03	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	Spread: Portugal (-1.5)(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-07-03	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	32%
0.57	Free Lottery (dualism)(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-07-04	238_037 Network effects, economics, and game theory will persist in AI agent economy (no singleton takeover) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	OrbitQuant: Data-Agnostic Quantization for Image and Video Diffusion Transformers	arxiv 2026-07-02	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.57	Towards a Phonology-Informed Evaluation of Multilingual TTS	arxiv 2026-07-02	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Towards a Phonology-Informed Evaluation of Multilingual TTS	arxiv 2026-07-02	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.57	Statistical Properties of $k$-means Clustering for Data Missing Completely at Random	arxiv 2026-07-02	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	Beyond Supervised Clarification: Input Rewriting with LLMs for Dialogue Discourse Parsing	arxiv 2026-07-02	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.57	Can Language Models Actually Retrieve In-Context? Drowning in Documents at Million Token Scale	arxiv 2026-07-01	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.57	Towards graviton lasing from squeezed ultra-cold systems	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Morse Bridge between Planar Kepler and Hyperbolic Landau Dynamics	arxiv 2026-07-02	235_040 Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	26%
0.57	San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 81%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Counter-Strike: TrafficPills Esports vs TheBoys - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-07-04	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	Mexico vs. England: Mexico O/U 1.5(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	—	10%
0.57	Will Belinda Bencic be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.57	Mexico vs. England: O/U 7.5 Total Corners(market prob: 63%)	polymarket 2026-07-03	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Mexico vs. England: O/U 6.5(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Will either Flipo Flip or Electrical Damping be chosen to report for Hong Kong team at IYPT 2026?(market prob: 43%)	manifold 2026-07-05	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.57	Two-way animal communication awarded before...	manifold 2026-07-03	IND_005 Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~... Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	33%
0.57	Will Brazil lead Norway at the end of 90 minutes (including stoppage time) on July 5, 2026 (7/5/26)?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Belgium?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Belgium?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	United States vs. Belgium: United States O/U 1.5(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Belgium?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	United States vs. Belgium: Neither team to score first?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-07-04	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Belgium?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	United States vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-07-06	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	United States vs. Belgium: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-27	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	United States vs. Belgium: United States O/U 2.5(market prob: 20%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-01-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Belgium to score first vs. United States?(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Will Boston have a 3 Michelin Star restaurant by the end of 2027?(market prob: 23%)	manifold 2026-07-06	235_033 Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	52%
0.57	Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.57	Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	45%
0.57	Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	231_011 The country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war. Peter Diamandis	Geopolitics	55%
0.57	Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	29%
0.57	Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	LoL: NRG Esports vs Citadel Gaming (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular Season(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.57	Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Division One (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will I finish my library takeouts before theyre due?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-04-28	240_048 Spreadsheet, SQL, code, UI jobs will be done by AI starting at end of this year Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	36%
0.57	Result of MrBeast red/blue button poll?	manifold 2026-04-28	247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis	Robotics	32%
0.57	Will the "Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13" pass(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-04-25	247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	46%
0.57	GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. (GEHC) (CIK 0001932393)	edgar_8k 2026-04-29	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.57	moelis mc q1 2026 earnings 021154258.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	ff680fbd0cfad7319fd19a68a33200ee	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.57	nasas artemis ii moonship returns home to its launch site after historic voyage	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_044 Blue Origin will land cargo at Shackleton Crater before SpaceX — validating lunar economy and resource extraction as immediate commercial priority. Peter Diamandis	Space	32%
0.57	article 92de82b6 3cdc 5e65 80c8 5bf5d34917e4.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	article 6bc20232 6f49 545c ae2b 9e1e98ef7a59.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.57	article 8ede7c62 8861 5d5f ac2f 5502203175ae.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	241_021 America can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildout Eric Schmidt	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.57	article 53083fef 8cdc 5e58 8fc2 580d537ba993.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	article 4c6c4a65 427c 5e4d a07e e294a57bfcdb.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.57	ashley st clair accuses dc draino faking jewish identity 1794393	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.57	article ff5a51e4 cb44 57ae 895f 3260cfa2eede.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.57	article ff5a51e4 cb44 57ae 895f 3260cfa2eede.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	article cca2e29d 08d0 5d1b b3e9 29d66c3845a0.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	firstsun capital bancorp q1 2026 123000543.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.57		gdelt 2026-04-30	248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail	Robotics	34%
0.57	Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	Stars vs. Wild(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	19%
0.57	Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.57	Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-07	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	36%
0.57	USA vs Iran in World Cup 2026?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-04-30	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will the US average gas price fall below $4.00 in May 2026?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-30	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	EXELON CORP (EXC) (CIK 0001109357)	edgar_8k 2026-04-30	246_010 SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	43%
0.57	Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	39%
0.57	Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Golden Knights vs. Utah(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	19%
0.57	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.57	Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%