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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.57	StanceNakba Shared Task: Actor and Topic-Aware Stance Detection in Public Discourse	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.57	Context-Aware Multimodal Claim Verification in Spoken Dialogues	arxiv 2026-06-09	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.57	m6A-FORM: A Foundation Model for Decoding N6-methyladenosine Biology	arxiv 2026-06-10	245_025 Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of edits Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	80%
0.57	m6A-FORM: A Foundation Model for Decoding N6-methyladenosine Biology	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.57	FDA ANDA211000: MACITENTAN (MACITENTAN) — AMNEAL	fda 2026-06-08	248_030 FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.57	FDA NDA203985: AFINITOR DISPERZ (EVEROLIMUS) — NOVARTIS PHARM	fda 2026-06-01	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.57	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_data_omc-0.1.0	github_release 2025-11-21	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.57	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.7.0	github_release 2025-09-23	229_047 Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planned. Brett Adcock	AI	77%
0.57	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_data_omol-0.1.1	github_release 2025-09-16	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.57	United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.57	United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.57	United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Miami Marlins win the 2026 NL East title?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-19	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.57	LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5)(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.57	LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.57	United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.57	United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5(market prob: 75%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.57	United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.57	United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Hagerty, Inc. (HGTY) (CIK 0001840776)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT) (CIK 0001674101)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.57	Dual-Domain Equivariant Generative Adversarial Network for Multimodal CT-PET Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.57	Physics-Guided Spatiotemporal Learning for Coastal Wave Peak Period Estimation from Video	arxiv 2026-06-11	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.57	Physics-Guided Spatiotemporal Learning for Coastal Wave Peak Period Estimation from Video	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.57	HYDRA-X: Native Unified Multimodal Models with Holistic Visual Tokenizers	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.57	Cross-Modal Masked Compositional Concept Modeling for Enhancing Visio-Linguistic Compositionality	arxiv 2026-06-11	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Multimodal Graph Negative Learning	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.57	Leveraging Audio-LLMs to Filter Speech-to-Speech Training Data	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.57	A Graphical Coaction for FRW Integrals from Partial/Relative Twisted (Co)homology	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Double copy of form factors with multiple operator insertions	arxiv 2026-06-11	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.57	Quantum Gravity Induced Entanglement from Propagating Gravitons	arxiv 2026-06-11	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	facebookresearch/TensorComprehensions v0.1.1	github_release 2018-03-01	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.57	LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will Tom Kim win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 88%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.57	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.57	Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	What is the secret meaning of the Manifest 2026 attendee badge colors?	manifold 2026-06-13	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Will the Jews admit that they control the weather before 2030?(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-06-13	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.57	FDA ANDA204196: DEXTROMETHORPHAN HYDROBROMIDE AND QUINIDINE SULFATE (DEXTROMETHORPHAN HYDROBROMIDE) — SUN PHARM	fda 2026-06-03	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA NDA050671: VANCOMYCIN HYDROCHLORIDE IN PLASTIC CONTAINER (VANCOMYCIN HYDROCHLORIDE) — BAXTER HLTHCARE	fda 2026-06-09	245_009 Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	45%
0.57	FDA NDA050671: VANCOMYCIN HYDROCHLORIDE IN PLASTIC CONTAINER (VANCOMYCIN HYDROCHLORIDE) — BAXTER HLTHCARE	fda 2026-06-09	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.57	FDA ANDA203047: VALACYCLOVIR HYDROCHLORIDE (VALACYCLOVIR HYDROCHLORIDE) — HETERO LABS LTD V	fda 2026-06-10	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.57	facebookresearch/fairseq v0.10.1	github_release 2020-11-21	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 21, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.57	Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 70%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 70%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.57	Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-14	235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross	Consumer	42%
0.57	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will the number of U.S. Supreme Court Justices confirmed between June 15, 2026 and January 20, 2029 be at least one?(market prob: 88%)	manifold 2026-06-15	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? [Polymarket](market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-06-15	243_025 Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.57	Which Scores Will Happen on June 15th FIFA World Cup 2026	manifold 2026-06-14	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	HELIOS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (HLIO) (CIK 0001024795)	edgar_8k 2026-06-15	AUT_001 The HIM platform has demonstrated commercial viability of autonomous multi-agent corporate execution — 5-agent organizational structures running continuously from a single node, with product applications generating substantial revenue within minutes of... Alex Finn	AI	51%
0.57	HELIOS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (HLIO) (CIK 0001024795)	edgar_8k 2026-06-15	INF_055 Helion Energy will deliver the world's first commercial fusion electricity — the 50 MW Orion plant in Malaga, Washington — to Microsoft by 2028 under the industry's first fusion power-purchase agreement. Sam Altman	Energy	28%
0.57	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.1.1	github_release 2020-03-08	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.57	Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5(market prob: 94%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5(market prob: 27%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.57	Will I ban mobile devices from my bedroom until July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)(market prob: 59%)	manifold 2026-06-16	234_026 AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	A Comprehensive Survey of Medical Image Segmentation: Challenges, Benchmarks, and Beyond	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	NVMOS: Non-Verbal Vocalization Quality Assessment in Speech	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	Scalable and Interpretable Representation Alignment with Ordinal Similarity	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.57	Multi-band cross-correlation dark sirens: Enhancing cosmological parameter and gravitational-wave bias constraints	arxiv 2026-06-14	S_COMPUTE_10GW_2028 Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028	compute_scale	40%
0.57	FDA NDA016694: DEXTROSE 10% IN PLASTIC CONTAINER (DEXTROSE) — BAXTER HLTHCARE	fda 2026-06-11	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	FDA ANDA209286: DIVALPROEX SODIUM (DIVALPROEX SODIUM) — LUPIN	fda 2026-06-11	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.57	FDA NDA214373: BRENZAVVY (BEXAGLIFLOZIN) — THERACOSBIO	fda 2026-06-03	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.57	FDA ANDA217358: DIVALPROEX SODIUM (DIVALPROEX SODIUM) — MANKIND PHARMA	fda 2026-06-11	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5)(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	When LLMs Analyze Scars: From Images to Clinically-Meaningful Features	arxiv 2026-06-16	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.57	Tensor-based second-order causal discovery	arxiv 2026-06-16	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.57	Tensor-based second-order causal discovery	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.57	Analyzing and Encoding the Al-Mawrid Arabic-English Dictionary with the ISO Language Markup Framework and TEI Lex-0	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.57	RICH-SLAM: Radar SLAM with Incremental and Continuous Hilbert Mapping	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.57	Making complex CFTs real: The two-dimensional Potts model for $Q>4$ and complex $Q$	arxiv 2026-06-16	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Hamiltonian formalism for Bose excitations in a plasma with a non-Abelian interaction: plasmon bremsstrahlung	arxiv 2026-06-16	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Imprints of dynamical phases in semiclassical entanglement entropy in 2D CFT	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Derivation of height field theory for the two-dimensional classical dimer model from a Grassmann-integral representation	arxiv 2026-06-15	229_045 Figure will not differentiate by vertical form factor—general-purpose humanoid is the bet. Brett Adcock	Robotics	28%
0.57	When Renormalisation Remembers: UV/IR Mixing as an Entanglement Bridge	arxiv 2026-06-15	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.57	Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	236_025 Suburban housing prices will fall as white collar workers lose jobs and sell homes Andrew Yang	Real Estate	42%
0.57	Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.57	Will Cameron Young win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	37%
0.57	Will Justin Rose win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? [Polymarket](market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-06-18	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.57	US/Israel strike on Iran by end of 2030?(market prob: 58%)	manifold 2026-06-18	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.57	Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 31?(market prob: 79%)	manifold 2026-06-18	COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	27%
0.57	Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) (CIK 0001679788)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.57	Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT) (CIK 0001674101)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.57	NextDecade Corp (NEXT) (CIK 0001612720)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore	Semis/Products	62%
0.57	PEGASYSTEMS INC (PEGA) (CIK 0001013857)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.57	HELIOS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (HLIO) (CIK 0001024795)	edgar_8k 2026-06-17	AUT_001 The HIM platform has demonstrated commercial viability of autonomous multi-agent corporate execution — 5-agent organizational structures running continuously from a single node, with product applications generating substantial revenue within minutes of... Alex Finn	AI	51%
0.57	HELIOS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (HLIO) (CIK 0001024795)	edgar_8k 2026-06-17	INF_055 Helion Energy will deliver the world's first commercial fusion electricity — the 50 MW Orion plant in Malaga, Washington — to Microsoft by 2028 under the industry's first fusion power-purchase agreement. Sam Altman	Energy	28%
0.57	Risk Stratification for ICU Delirium using Pervasive Ambient Sensing Information	arxiv 2026-06-17	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.57	Urdu Katib Handwritten Dataset: A Historical Document Dataset for Offline Urdu Handwritten Text Recognition with CRNN-Based Baseline Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-17	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.57	On operator product expansion in the spin-orbit coupled bosonic system	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.57	Hydrodynamics of perfect fluids with anomalies from the fermionic path integral	arxiv 2026-06-17	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.57	Universal entanglement probes of topological order and locally-achiral manifolds	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.57	Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will Ivan Perišić be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Free Lottery (dark matter)(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-06-19	241_008 AI research agents will be limited only by electricity, with potentially millions possible Eric Schmidt	AI	43%
0.57	PSCT-Net: Geometry-Aware Pediatric Skull CT Reconstruction via Differentiable Back-Projection and Attention-Guided Refinement	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	Denoising Implicit Feedback for Cold-start Recommendation	arxiv 2026-06-17	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	30%
0.57	Towards Modality-imbalanced Federated Graph Learning: A Data Synthesis-based Approach	arxiv 2026-06-18	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.57	QMaxCal: Path-Space Regularization for Open Quantum Control via Girsanov's Theorem	arxiv 2026-06-18	AI_016 The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an AI experience curve enables bulk problem-solving across engineering, medicine, and mathematics at a fraction of historical compute costs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	82%
0.57	Multimodal Concept Bottleneck Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	CzechDocs: A Multiway Parallel Dataset of Formatted Documents for Minority Languages in Czechia	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	Pitch Spelling Jazz Lead Sheets, Solo Transcriptions, Classical Piano and Monophonic Scores	arxiv 2026-06-18	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.57	ARC: Adaptive Robust Joint State and Covariance Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-18	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.57	Towards 3D karst underwater scene reconstruction from rotating sonar data	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.57	The magic of the gravitational vacuum	arxiv 2026-06-18	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Quantization of Brane-Skyrmions via Physics-Informed Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_004 By approximately 2027-2028, collaborative AI programs will essentially 'solve physics' — unifying general relativity and quantum mechanics into a new mathematical framework; the core mission of DeepMind is to 'first solve AI, then use AI to solve every... Demis Hassabis	AI	8%
0.57	Leading UV Formula for Finite-Volume Vertex Operator Expectation Values in the Sine-Gordon Model from Kink NLIE	arxiv 2026-06-18	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Universal Properties of Nonlinearly Perturbed Maxwell Theory	arxiv 2026-06-18	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.57	Calabi-Yau Orientifold Hypersurfaces and their F-theory Uplifts	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Will JT Poston win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	19%
0.57	Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-04-14	230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-04-14	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	How many deaths will be reported as directly linked to South Africa’s 30 June 2026 anti-immigration shutdown/protests?	manifold 2026-06-20	230_044 Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. Peter Diamandis	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Will the U.S. Supreme Court release a signed opinion in Trump v. Barbara on or before June 30, 2026 (6/30/26)?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-06-20	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Exactly what day will Claud Fable 5 be available to Americans.	manifold 2026-06-19	COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	27%
0.57	FDA BLA761234: OPDUALAG (NIVOLUMAB) — BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB	fda 2026-06-08	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.57	FDA BLA761234: OPDUALAG (NIVOLUMAB) — BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB	fda 2026-06-08	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.57	France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Spread: England (-1.5)(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Spread: Algeria (-1.5)(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google	AI	46%
0.57	Spread: Norway (-1.5)(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2025-11-25	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.57	2026/2027 UEFA Champions League winner [independent]	manifold 2026-06-22	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Will "The LLM shoggoth meme is weirder than you think" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-06-20	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.57	Will Spain be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.57	Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will US annex any territory in 2026?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-01-06	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.57	US military draft authorized in 2026?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-03-12	240_050 US will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a job Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	35%
0.57	ROMEVA: Geometry-Preserving Vocabulary Expansion for Roman Urdu Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-21	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	From Speech to Text Corpora: Evaluating ASR-Based Data Acquisition for Low-Resource Fongbe and Hausa	arxiv 2026-06-20	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	Flow6D: Discrete-to-Continuous Flow Matching for Efficient and Accurate Category-Level 6D Pose Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_018 Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — backed by concentrated collective capital of the AI hardware-software industry (Microsoft, NVIDIA, OpenAI), signaling industry-wide belief that humanoid r... Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.57	FDA ANDA209543: BOSUTINIB MONOHYDRATE (BOSUTINIB MONOHYDRATE) — ALEMBIC	fda 2026-06-12	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.57	FDA ANDA209543: BOSUTINIB MONOHYDRATE (BOSUTINIB MONOHYDRATE) — ALEMBIC	fda 2026-06-12	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	FDA ANDA209543: BOSUTINIB MONOHYDRATE (BOSUTINIB MONOHYDRATE) — ALEMBIC	fda 2026-06-12	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.57	FDA ANDA040355: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — STRIDES PHARMA INTL	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	Will Cole Young win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-03-26	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will Cole Young win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-03-26	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-30	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.57	MMed-Bench-IR: A Heterogeneous Benchmark for Multilingual Medical Information Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	Promise and challenges of heart chamber segmentation from non-contrast CT scans using contrastive unpaired image translation: a feasibility study	arxiv 2026-06-22	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.57	Deciphering Fingerprints of 3D Molecular Surfaces for Accurate Epitope Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-22	IND_012 NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a decade — Evo 2 achieves 90% accuracy in BRCA1 predictions; AI models will seamlessly transition generated biological designs into practical, synthesized clinical... Jensen Huang	Biotech/Longevity	68%
0.57	MorfFlex: Handling Rich Morphology	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.57	The Topology of the Universe	arxiv 2026-06-23	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.57	The Topology of the Universe	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.57	Additional constraints for the tensor bootstrap	arxiv 2026-06-23	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.57	FDA NDA204017: TWIRLA (ETHINYL ESTRADIOL) — AGILE	fda 2026-06-18	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.57	Will McCartney Kessler be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.57	Will Iraq be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	242_037 China will land on the moon before end of 2030 China (government)	Space	37%
0.57	Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.57	Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	When re-enabled, will Fable require verification via government ID?(market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-06-25	231_016 Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will go away. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.57	Free Lottery (Great Debate)(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-06-25	239_018 Universal High Income will be implemented Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	44%
0.57	World Series of Poker! Will Daniel Negreanu break even for the 2026 WSOP on his YouTube vlog?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-06-23	237_028 Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podcast this year. Peter Diamandis	Media/Ads	78%
0.57	Will I publish my personal site/blog this month?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-06-22	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.57	QUANTUM CORP /DE/ (QMCO) (CIK 0000709283)	edgar_8k 2026-06-25	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.57	STEB: A Speech-to-Speech Translation Expressiveness Benchmark for Evaluating Beyond Translation Fidelity	arxiv 2026-06-24	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.57	Anatomically-conditioned Latent Diffusion Model for Data-Efficient Few-Shot Cross-Domain 3D Glioma MRI Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-24	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.57	Retrieval-Augmented Personalization with Foundation Models for Wearable Stress Detection	arxiv 2026-06-23	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.57	Convex--Concave Quadratic Spectral Filtering for Graph Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-23	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.57	Multilingual Hematology Visual Question Answering Dataset	arxiv 2026-06-24	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.57	Electroweak corrections to Higgs boson pair production: The quark channel	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Quantum thermodynamics of ergotopy for a relativistic battery as a witness to Unruh-Hawking thermality in curved (A)dS spacetimes	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.57	Cosmological gravitational particle production in multifield inflation	arxiv 2026-06-23	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	FDA ANDA074736: NALOXONE HYDROCHLORIDE AND PENTAZOCINE HYDROCHLORIDE (NALOXONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — WATSON LABS	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA ANDA075968: TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE (TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — GRAVITI PHARMS	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%