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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil | AI | 63% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 65% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | 229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | 229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | 231_032 Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 31% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | 237_026 The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity. Peter Diamandis | AI | 20% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Physics | 56% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA217554: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — DEVA HOLDING AS | fda 2026-04-27 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA213267: THALIDOMIDE (THALIDOMIDE) — NATCO | fda 2026-04-24 | 248_029 Regime change at the FDA is not beyond the realm of reason. Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 35% | |
| 0.58 | FDA NDA210793: NUPLAZID (PIMAVANSERIN TARTRATE) — ACADIA PHARMS INC | fda 2026-04-27 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.58 | FDA NDA207223: DIACOMIT (STIRIPENTOL) — BIOCODEX SA | fda 2026-04-15 | INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis | Biotech/Longevity | 38% | |
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA217957: LEUPROLIDE ACETATE (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — UBI | fda 2026-05-06 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.58 | github_release 2026-01-18 | 241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.58 | Valorant: Team Liquid vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Valorant: Team Liquid vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | SEM_003 Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy/Compute | 86% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-05 | S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) | mars_uncrewed_landing | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-07?(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-04-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-07 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | IND_005 Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~... Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 33% | ||
| 0.58 | FDA NDA216993: VANFLYTA (QUIZARTINIB DIHYDROCHLORIDE) — DAIICHI SANKYO INC | fda 2026-04-29 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | |
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA217477: ANDA217477 ((unspecified)) — HAINAN POLY PHARM. CO., LTD. | fda 2026-04-23 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.58 | github_release 2020-05-28 | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | 15% | ||
| 0.58 | github_release 2022-11-30 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.58 | github_release 2023-02-08 | 230_045 GDP will be replaced by an 'Abundance Capability Index' measuring capacity to solve problems. Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | github_release 2024-03-29 | CMQ_044 Future data-center architectures optimized for agentic workflows may require 1:2 or even 2:1 CPU-to-GPU ratio (vs historical 1:12) to prevent GPU idle-waiting. Morgan Stanley | AI/Compute | 65% | ||
| 0.58 | Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-04 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | O/U 2.5 Rounds(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-04-18 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price | Education | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | 248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | 232_006 YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content. Peter Diamandis | Media/Ads | 51% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | 15% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 29% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn | AI | 55% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy | AI | 87% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030 | humanoid_deployment | 20% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | 231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 235_040 Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 26% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 240_012 Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few years Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | ||
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA217239: TORSEMIDE (TORSEMIDE) — MICRO LABS | fda 2026-05-01 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2025-05-02 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.58 | Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Cloud9 (+1.5)(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | Will North Korea conduct a major military provocation(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 230_044 Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. Peter Diamandis | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.58 | Will North Korea conduct a major military provocation(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | INF_037 An all-out AI arms race between the US and China is inevitable — reaching superintelligence first provides a decisive unassailable economic and military advantage, analogous to early nuclear primacy. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Geopolitics | 58% | |
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-05-08 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-05-08 | 246_035 Terafab pilot phase is $25B, yielding ~$4B/year revenue for Intel. Peter Diamandis | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-04-13 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | Avalanche vs. Wild(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13?(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Spurs (-10.5)(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | github_release 2025-12-08 | 241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.58 | github_release 2025-06-10 | 247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.58 | Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 41% | ||
| 0.58 | Spread: Spurs (-8.5)(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.58 | Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Will AC Goianiense vs. São Bernardo FC end in a draw?(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will Ciconia: When They Cry Phase 2 be released by the end of 2026?(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.58 | Will Brent Crude Oil close above $110 on May 15th, 2026?(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-12 | S_AI_PAUSE_2028 AI pause beginning 2028 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-05-12 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-05-12 | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang | Manufacturing | 86% | ||
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA072735: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — HIKMA | fda 2026-05-05 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | |
| 0.58 | FDA NDA021488: ELIGARD KIT (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — TOLMAR | fda 2026-05-06 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | |
| 0.58 | github_release 2026-04-10 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | ||
| 0.58 | Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: ZYB Esport vs Vitality.Bee (BO3) - LFL Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.58 | Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.58 | Map Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.58 | Will Kash Patel still be FBI Director On 1st July 2026(market prob: 64%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.58 | Xi JinPing visits USA before Sep 30?(market prob: 82%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.58 | Will USD strengthen against GBP in the next 24h?(market prob: 65%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | |
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-05-13 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-12 | SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 64% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-12 | AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-12 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-12 | 234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-12 | SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin | AI/Architecture | 65% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-12 | IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt | Education | 48% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-12 | AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.58 | Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.58 | Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-05-14 | INF_040 Massive financial conglomerates will execute historic mergers to control underlying DC real-estate and fiber-optic assets: SoftBank's move to acquire DigitalBridge for its approximately $108 billion in infrastructure assets signals real-estate and fibe... SoftBank | Markets/Stocks | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-13 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.58 | github_release 2025-08-12 | CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic | AI | 80% | ||
| 0.58 | github_release 2025-05-23 | 240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.58 | github_release 2025-05-23 | CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic | AI | 80% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.58 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-23 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Will Delhi Capitals win the 2026 Indian Premier League?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-24 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Valorant: MIBR vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | LoL: ZeroZone Gaming vs Dream Esports (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.58 | Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-16?(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 238_039 Apple's underused unified memory overhang will likely collapse within the next year Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 36% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-05-15 | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang | Manufacturing | 86% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-14 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-14 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-14 | AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-14 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-14 | ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg | Biotech/Longevity | 70% | ||
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA219494: SPIRONOLACTONE (SPIRONOLACTONE) — GRAVITI PHARMS | fda 2026-05-12 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA217761: SPIRONOLACTONE (SPIRONOLACTONE) — ANNORA PHARMA | fda 2026-05-12 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.58 | github_release 2022-12-21 | 231_002 Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.58 | github_release 2020-08-18 | 248_037 State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 14% | ||
| 0.58 | Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.58 | Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.58 | Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 230_017 Self-driving will become the norm; manual driving will become uncool, then illegal (Smoking-ban analogy). Dave Blundin | Auto/Transport | 46% | ||
| 0.58 | github_release 2024-01-03 | 247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.58 | Valorant: REBORN vs Enterprise Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group B(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-17 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-03-19 | 242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.58 | Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-10-22 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 240_037 Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 8% | ||
| 0.58 | Spread: Knicks (-6.5)(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-05-19 | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang | Manufacturing | 86% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-18 | SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 64% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-18 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-18 | AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.58 | FDA BLA761070: FASENRA (BENRALIZUMAB) — ASTRAZENECA AB | fda 2026-05-13 | 248_030 FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA089534: SPIRONOLACTONE AND HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE (HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE) — SUN PHARM INDUSTRIES | fda 2026-05-12 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | |
| 0.58 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-23 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 22%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.58 | Will Raphael Collignon win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.58 | Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.58 | Will SD Eibar win on 2026-05-31?(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-05-20 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Will SD Eibar win on 2026-05-31?(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-05-20 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.58 | Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.58 | Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 243_025 Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 235_017 OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 48% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 41% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 233_003 Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring. MacKenzie Price | Education | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.58 | European Central Bank raises rates at June meeting?(market prob: 76%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | |
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-05-29 | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang | Manufacturing | 86% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi | AI | 61% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | 242_011 New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 years Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | INF_043 Unit cost of intelligence will drop at a rate far exceeding Moore's Law, driving explosive demand growth that filters out to edge devices and localized small models. Marc Andreessen | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | 233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy | AI | 90% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-27 | FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 29% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.58 | FDA NDA210251: BIKTARVY (BICTEGRAVIR SODIUM) — GILEAD SCIENCES INC | fda 2026-05-21 | INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis | Biotech/Longevity | 38% | |
| 0.58 | FDA NDA210251: BIKTARVY (BICTEGRAVIR SODIUM) — GILEAD SCIENCES INC | fda 2026-05-21 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 71% | |
| 0.58 | FDA BLA761106: HERCEPTIN HYLECTA (TRASTUZUMAB AND HYALURONIDASE-OYSK) — GENENTECH INC | fda 2026-05-18 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | polymarket 2026-05-31 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | ||
| 0.58 | Pallacanestro Brescia vs. Olimpia Milano(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 242_025 60% of LA parking will be released, becoming gardens and parks Dave Blundin | Real Estate | 45% | ||
| 0.58 | Rcb vs gt who is win(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 247_060 Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.58 | Spread: Spurs (-4.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Monaco vs. Nanterre(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.58 | Monaco vs. Nanterre(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.58 | Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-01-08 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.58 | Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-19 | S_COMPUTE_STARGATE_FAILURE Stargate failure: <500MW by 2029 | compute_scale | 15% | |
| 0.58 | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_RECESSION_2027 NBER recession declared 2027 | macro_recession | 30% | ||
| 0.58 | "Backrooms" sequel film announced by end of June?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-06-01 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-06-01 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.58 | edgar_8k 2026-06-01 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | ||
| 0.58 | FDA NDA022561: MAVENCLAD (CLADRIBINE) — EMD SERONO INC | fda 2026-05-14 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.58 | FDA BLA761275: TYENNE (TOCILIZUMAB-AAZG) — FRESENIUS KABI USA | fda 2026-05-21 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | |
| 0.58 | FDA BLA761354: TOFIDENCE (TOCILIZUMAB-BAVI) — BIOGEN MA | fda 2026-05-22 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.58 | FDA ANDA220499: ANDA220499 ((unspecified)) — ALEMBIC PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED | fda 2026-05-13 | TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event | — | 15% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Spurs (-5.5)(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.58 | How cheap will fully farm-raised eel get? / 完全養殖ウナギ、いくらまで安くなる？(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 242_042 Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | 234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn | Consumer | 44% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.58 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | 238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% |