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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.59 | Will Marin Čilić be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.59 | Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.59 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-06-16 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.59 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-06-16 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.59 | Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance(market prob: 74%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.59 | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-04 | 232_059 Universal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on capital side of ledger. Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.59 | Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day in July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-06-28 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | |
| 0.59 | U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? (market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-28 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.59 | Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advance(market prob: 37%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | England vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.59 | Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.59 | Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2026-04-21 | 236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.59 | Composer 3 released today?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.59 | Soylent is acquired by an Anthropic employee by EOY 2027(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | 247_009 Anthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026 Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | |
| 0.59 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-02-17 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.59 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-02-17 | 247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.59 | Will Anna Kalinskaya be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Spread: New York Liberty (-2.5)(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | |
| 0.59 | Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of August 31?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-29 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-29 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-29 | FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-29 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-29 | CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-29 | IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba | AI | 79% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-28 | INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 17% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-29 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-29 | CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley | AI/Compute | 35% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-29 | AUT_008 Uber has structured partnerships integrating Waymo, May Mobility, Lucid Group + Nuro manufacturing agreement to deploy up to 20,000 purpose-built autonomous vehicles globally — hybrid human+AV transportation networks will persist 20-30 years due to cur... Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 76% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-28 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-28 | AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-28 | 248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-28 | 238_025 AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level Emad Mostaque | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-28 | 245_031 99% of synthetic biology focus will remain on human healthcare; similar tech applies more broadly Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 41% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-29 | S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030 | humanoid_deployment | 20% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-29 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.59 | github_release 2026-06-29 | 247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.59 | Spread: United States (-1.5)(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.59 | Spread: United States (-1.5)(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.59 | Spread: United States (-2.5)(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.59 | Spread: United States (-2.5)(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.59 | Valorant: Mandatory vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Will LeBron James play for the Indiana Pacers in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.59 | Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.59 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | ||
| 0.59 | Russian attacks or invades Estonia by mid 2029(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-07-01 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.59 | edgar_8k 2026-06-30 | 247_039 Quantum not a risk to Bitcoin; Saylor is 100% right Dave Blundin | Crypto | 54% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-30 | ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-30 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-30 | 232_011 Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-30 | CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-30 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-30 | CYB_010 Agentic commerce will radically redistribute — not grow — the global commerce stack, severely affecting traditional software platforms, global payment processors, digital advertising networks, and physical logistics providers. Consumer delegation of pr... Morgan Stanley | Markets/Stocks | 70% | ||
| 0.59 | FDA NDA220073: ELIQUIS (APIXABAN) — BRISTOL | fda 2026-06-24 | SEM_029 Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI training. Nvidia | Semis/Products | 79% | |
| 0.59 | Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-20 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.59 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley | Macro/Economy | 61% | |
| 0.59 | Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.59 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.59 | Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 20% | |
| 0.59 | Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.59 | Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | 243_001 Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | |
| 0.59 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 20% | |
| 0.59 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 20% | |
| 0.59 | Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.59 | Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 20% | |
| 0.59 | Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.59 | Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-29 | SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 56% | ||
| 0.59 | Will I qualify for the 2027 USA TST(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 14% | |
| 0.59 | Florida Redistricting Before 2026 Midterms?(market prob: 81%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | |
| 0.59 | Will ICE be renamed as NICE in 2026?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-26 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | ||
| 0.59 | Will a particular friend of mine crack anyone while at math camp?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | |
| 0.59 | Will I win the main prize in this (second) prize drawing?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.59 | Utah vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.59 | Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 20% | |
| 0.59 | Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.59 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | ||
| 0.59 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.59 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 238_052 $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) Elon Musk | Markets/Stocks | 24% | ||
| 0.59 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 238_068 Mark Pack Donovan to distribute 5% of wealth fund annually to 44 people (UBI-style pod) Mark Pack Donovan | Macro/Economy | 40% | ||
| 0.59 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.59 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.59 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.59 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.59 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 242_044 Base AI models becoming commodity; value migrates up the stack Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.59 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.59 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.59 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | ||
| 0.59 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.59 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 246_035 Terafab pilot phase is $25B, yielding ~$4B/year revenue for Intel. Peter Diamandis | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.59 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang | Policy/Semis | 66% | ||
| 0.59 | Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.59 | Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.59 | Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.59 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-03-19 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.59 | Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 231_011 The country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war. Peter Diamandis | Geopolitics | 55% | |
| 0.59 | Will CA Peñarol win on 2026-04-30?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-04-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.59 | Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.59 | Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.59 | Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.59 | Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.59 | polymarket 2025-07-28 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.59 | Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.59 | Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-27 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.59 | edgar_8k 2026-04-30 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.59 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.59 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.59 | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2025-12-16 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.59 | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2025-12-16 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.59 | Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | COD_BIO_004 Colossal produces a live mammoth-like elephant calf by end 2028 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 12% | |
| 0.59 | Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.59 | polymarket 2026-04-27 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.59 | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.59 | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.59 | Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | 242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.59 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-03-19 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.59 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-03-19 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.59 | Will Android 17 be officially released to consumers by October 31, 2026?(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.59 | Will I get 90%+ in all my courses this semester?(market prob: 90%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 241_047 Universities should create prompt engineering course starting September for all freshmen Eric Schmidt | Education | 51% | |
| 0.59 | Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03?(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-04-20 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.59 | Will USD strengthen against EUR in the next 24h?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-05-02 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.59 | Wild vs. Avalanche(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.59 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.59 | Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.59 | Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.59 | Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.59 | polymarket 2026-05-03 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.59 | Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-21 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.59 | Will Jannik Sinner play in Rome M1000 2026(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 235_027 Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 38% | ||
| 0.59 | Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.59 | polymarket 2025-07-28 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-04 | CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley | Macro/Economy | 61% | ||
| 0.59 | Will isaak freeman become a nobel laureate?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | ROB_003 AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery in just 5 years — effectively bringing 2050-era science to 2030. Already manifesting in resolution of long-standing mathematical proofs (e.g. Erdős problems) via advanced reas... Kevin Weil | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Will I speak to a human in the next week?(market prob: 72%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn | AI | 41% | |
| 0.59 | edgar_8k 2026-05-04 | CMQ_051 Humanoid robots total addressable market by 2040: lower bound 1 billion units (exceeding cars on Earth); upper bound 10+ billion units. Brett Adcock / Elon Musk / Vinod Khosla | Robotics | 37% | ||
| 0.59 | Am I worthy of moral consideration [Convince the Machine #5](market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | |
| 0.59 | FDA ANDA202426: SITAGLIPTIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE) — APOTEX | fda 2026-04-30 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.59 | FDA ANDA204687: VALSARTAN AND HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE (HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE) — SCIEGEN PHARMS | fda 2026-04-23 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | |
| 0.59 | FDA ANDA090124: ALENDRONATE SODIUM (ALENDRONATE SODIUM) — AUROBINDO PHARMA | fda 2026-04-15 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.59 | FDA ANDA214398: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — LUPIN | fda 2026-04-27 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | |
| 0.59 | FDA ANDA220274: SODIUM ACETATE (SODIUM ACETATE) — EXTROVIS | fda 2026-04-17 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.59 | github_release 2026-01-13 | 239_013 Tesla will release an improved Optimus design every year Elon Musk | Robotics | 37% | ||
| 0.59 | github_release 2025-09-03 | CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic | AI | 80% | ||
| 0.59 | github_release 2025-08-13 | CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic | AI | 80% | ||
| 0.59 | github_release 2023-08-31 | CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz | AI | 77% | ||
| 0.59 | github_release 2026-01-21 | 237_002 We will see a lot of evolution and many OpenClaw variants emerging very quickly as an early domain being developed. Peter Diamandis | AI | 55% | ||
| 0.59 | github_release 2023-05-08 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.59 | Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.59 | US Gas Price hits $4(NO) or $5(YES) Next?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 241_021 America can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildout Eric Schmidt | Markets/Stocks | 47% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 42% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei | AI | 56% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban | AI | 60% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | 232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba | AI | 79% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy | AI | 90% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba | AI | 79% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba | AI | 79% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | 238_012 OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes Kevin Weil | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | 232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin | Media/Ads | 45% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | SPC_016 AI transforms Earth Observation satellites via on-orbit edge computing — parsing raw visual and radar data in space, downlinking only actionable insights rather than raw imagery; permanently handing tedious low-cognitive tasks to AI and reserving human... Ben Lamm | Space | 72% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.59 | FDA ANDA203364: MESNA (MESNA) — RISING | fda 2026-04-09 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.59 | FDA ANDA218441: SITAGLIPTIN (SITAGLIPTIN) — BIOCON PHARMA LTD | fda 2026-05-01 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.59 | FDA NDA209500: CAPLYTA (LUMATEPERONE TOSYLATE) — INTRA-CELLULAR | fda 2026-04-24 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.59 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10?(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.59 | Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.59 | Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | 238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.59 | github_release 2025-01-27 | S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030 | humanoid_deployment | 20% | ||
| 0.59 | github_release 2022-12-08 | 241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.59 | github_release 2022-06-15 | 247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.59 | github_release 2022-06-15 | CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn | AI | 55% | ||
| 0.59 | github_release 2023-12-06 | 248_050 Opus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 45% |