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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.59	FDA ANDA089990: ACETAMINOPHEN AND CODEINE PHOSPHATE (ACETAMINOPHEN) — STRIDES PHARMA INTL	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA NDA208090: XTAMPZA ER (OXYCODONE) — COLLEGIUM PHARM INC	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	FDA ANDA204234: DOXYCYCLINE (DOXYCYCLINE) — LUPIN	fda 2026-06-12	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	facebookresearch/tensor-layouts v0.3.0	github_release 2026-04-20	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.59	Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.59	Female-RHINO: A Real-Time Scanner-Integrated Framework for Automated Quantitative Uterine MRI Analysis and Structured Reporting	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Female-RHINO: A Real-Time Scanner-Integrated Framework for Automated Quantitative Uterine MRI Analysis and Structured Reporting	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Integrated Sensing and Communications for Real-time Avatar Control in XR over 5G	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	PROTECT-90: A Fault Dataset for Power System Protection	arxiv 2026-06-23	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.59	MotifGen: Spatiotemporal interpolation of misaligned satellite images via multi-source generative modeling, in an application to tropical cyclones	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	PORTER: Language-Grounded Event Representations for Portable Structured EHR Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	PORTER: Language-Grounded Event Representations for Portable Structured EHR Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	Stochastic Expectation Maximization for Robust State-Space Radio Interferometric Imaging	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.59	MorfFlex: Handling Rich Morphology	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.59	Prague Dependency Treebank -- Consolidated 2.0: Enriching a Complex Annotation Scheme	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.59	QuechuaTok: Morphological Boundary Accuracy as a Necessary Metric for Tokenizer Evaluation in Agglutinative Low-Resource Languages	arxiv 2026-06-22	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Topics in Celestial holography: A bottom-up perspective	arxiv 2026-06-23	241_029 Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time Eric Schmidt	Robotics	12%
0.59	Topics in Celestial holography: A bottom-up perspective	arxiv 2026-06-23	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.59	Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	45%
0.59	Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 2.5(market prob: 20%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.59	First year the US has a public drone light show with 100,000+ drones?	manifold 2026-06-25	S_ROBOTAXI_NATIONWIDE_2028 Robotaxi nationwide expansion by Nov 2028	robotaxi_deployment	45%
0.59	Will NWS issue a new Beach Hazards Statement for the San Francisco Peninsula Coast between June 21 and June 26, 2026(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-06-20	COD_SPC_007 NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist Codex Research Pack	Space	43%
0.59	SOLAREDGE TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (SEDG) (CIK 0001419612)	edgar_8k 2026-06-25	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.59	Serve Robotics Inc. /DE/ (SERV) (CIK 0001832483)	edgar_8k 2026-06-24	S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028 Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028	humanoid_deployment	50%
0.59	Expresso-AI: Explainable Video-Based Deep Learning Models for Depression Diagnosis	arxiv 2026-06-24	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.59	CrossAccent-TTS: Cross-Lingual Accent-Intensity Controllable Text-to-Speech via Disentangled Speaker and Accent Representations	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.59	Retrieval-Augmented Personalization with Foundation Models for Wearable Stress Detection	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Deep Neural Networks with Ordinal Loss for Medical Applications	arxiv 2026-06-24	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Variational Inference via Entropic Transport Descent	arxiv 2026-06-24	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.59	Auto-Configured Explainable Graph Neural Networks for Multi-Site Pollution Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-23	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Invariant Kalman filtering for extended pose estimation in multi-IMU articulated rigid-body systems	arxiv 2026-06-23	241_029 Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time Eric Schmidt	Robotics	12%
0.59	FDA ANDA219119: TAPENTADOL HYDROCHLORIDE (TAPENTADOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — NOVITIUM PHARMA	fda 2026-06-18	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.59	FDA ANDA087083: ACETAMINOPHEN AND CODEINE PHOSPHATE (ACETAMINOPHEN) — SUN PHARM INDS LTD	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	Will Iraq reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.59	Spread: England (-2.5)(market prob: 40%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Spread: Belgium (-1.5)(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	FUT_002 Mean expert estimate for AGI collapsed from 50-year horizon to ~5 years over a 4-year window leading to mid-2020s — placing expected AGI arrival firmly in 2029-2031 window per Metaculus + 80000 Hours aggregate tracking; quantitative forecasters now ali... Superforecaster Community	AI	40%
0.59	Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	O/U 1.5 Rounds(market prob: 72%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google	AI	46%
0.59	New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5(market prob: 77%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5(market prob: 27%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5(market prob: 92%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock	Robotics	39%
0.59	Fable 5 VS GPT 5.6 Sol: which model will manifold users find to be more useful?	manifold 2026-06-26	246_051 GPT-5.5 Spud will have equal or greater capability to Mythos. Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.59	Will I get someone IRL to follow me onto Manifold Markets between today and 10/30/26?(market prob: 72%)	manifold 2026-06-26	242_042 Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	How many seats will our model's most-likely Senate map be wrong on?	manifold 2026-06-26	SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	56%
0.59	When Fable access returns, will it be available as part of the monthly paid plan?(market prob: 76%)	manifold 2026-06-26	COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	27%
0.59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? [Polymarket](market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-25	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Simulation-based inference for rapid Bayesian parameter estimation in epidemiological models: a comparison with MCMC	arxiv 2026-06-25	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.59	Anatomy-Guided Residual Motion Diffusion for Controllable 4D Cardiac MRI Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-25	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.59	Symplectic Neural Networks for learning Generalized Hamiltonians	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Geometric Gradient Rectification for Safe Open-Set Semi-Supervised Learning	arxiv 2026-06-25	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.59	LearniBridge: Learnable Calibration of Feature Caching for Diffusion Models Acceleration	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	Scoring Is Not Enough: Addressing Gaps in Utility-fairness Trade-offs for Ranking	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	MinGram: A Minimalist Unigram Tokenizer with High Compression and Competitive Morphological Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-25	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Hidden-ordered Dirac fermions	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Causality and the Equivalence Principle for Higher Energy Scattering	arxiv 2026-06-25	240_012 Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few years Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Thermodynamics of thin-shell wormholes	arxiv 2026-06-24	241_024 Heat dissipation and radiation issues in space data centers will be addressed Eric Schmidt	Space	54%
0.59	Conserved charges and $L_\infty$ algebras	arxiv 2026-06-24	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.59	FDA NDA209777: ROXYBOND (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — PROTEGA PHARMS	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	Will Owen Caissie win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Iran reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam	Energy	45%
0.59	LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.59	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	—	10%
0.59	Argentina leading at halftime?(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.59	Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.59	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	Will Tallon Griekspoor be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	FDA ANDA201952: TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — MICRO LABS LTD INDIA	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.59	FDA ANDA091607: TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE (TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — SUN PHARM	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	FDA ANDA076604: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND IBUPROFEN (HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE) — ACTAVIS LABS FL INC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA ANDA075499: BUTORPHANOL TARTRATE (BUTORPHANOL TARTRATE) — APOTEX	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	FDA ANDA206484: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — UPSHER SMITH LABS	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	FDA ANDA218875: ATOMOXETINE HYDROCHLORIDE (ATOMOXETINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — CREEKWOOD PHARMS	fda 2026-06-16	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Spread: Germany (-1.5)(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Spread: Germany (-1.5)(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google	AI	46%
0.59	Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.59	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Spread: Brazil (-2.5)(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.59	Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2025-11-04	241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.59	Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw?(market prob: 34%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advance(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	234_004 Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5(market prob: 72%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 1.5(market prob: 76%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 81%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.59	Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.59	Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5(market prob: 72%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Carlos Rodón strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.59	Trump out as President by July 31?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.59	A Multi-task Mixture of Experts Framework for Malware Classification, Packing Detection, and Family Attribution	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.59	Making Multimodal LLMs Reliable Chart Data Extractors: A Benchmark and Training Framework	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.59	Optimizing Nursing Care Taxi Dispatch Leveraging Integer Linear Programming Solvers and Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	Geometric Algebra Meets Cartesian Tensors: Higher-Order Equivariance for Interatomic Potentials	arxiv 2026-06-28	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.59	Structured Proper Loss Geometries for Multiclass Classification: Theory and Controlled Empirical Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-28	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.59	Structured Proper Loss Geometries for Multiclass Classification: Theory and Controlled Empirical Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-28	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.59	Grounding LLM Reasoning under Incomplete Graph Evidence	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Heterogeneous Tactile Transformer	arxiv 2026-06-29	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Seeing Touch from Motion: A Unified Modality-Aware Visuo-Tactile Policy with Tactile Motion Correlation	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_050 Physical embodied AI represents the 'Fourth Wave' of AI development — projected to scale rapidly and commercially between 2025-2030. Industry analysts (synthesis)	Robotics	41%
0.59	Multi-Contact Force Estimation for Continuum Robots via Gaussian-Parameterized Factor Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-28	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.59	Krylov Complexity in Non-Inertial Quantum Systems	arxiv 2026-06-29	FUT_021 Uncontrolled recursive self-improvement by AGI requires vast uninterrupted physical infrastructure, flawless power grids, perfect global supply chains for advanced semiconductors. In Zeihan-Bremmer world (severe demographic labor shortages, fragmented ... Superforecaster Community	AI	46%
0.59	Observables in Schrödinger CFTs: How Aliens Built the Pyramids	arxiv 2026-06-28	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.59	FDA BLA761166: BESREMI (ROPEGINTERFERON ALFA-2B-NJFT) — PHARMAESSENTIA CORP	fda 2026-06-26	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	facebookresearch/ProgramBench v1.2.3	github_release 2026-06-29	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.59	Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan	Macro/Economy	72%
0.59	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Iran full airspace closure by July 31?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.59	Histogram-constrained Image Generation	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	TAG-DLM: Diffusion Language Models for Text-Attributed Graph Learning	arxiv 2026-06-30	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	Can Tabular In-Context Learners Generalize to Biomolecular Property Prediction?	arxiv 2026-06-30	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.59	Hierarchical Clustering As a Novel Solution to the Notorious Multicollinearity Problem in Observational Causal Inference	arxiv 2026-06-30	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.59	Hierarchical Clustering As a Novel Solution to the Notorious Multicollinearity Problem in Observational Causal Inference	arxiv 2026-06-30	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.59	Learning Where to Look: A Reinforcement Learning Framework for Robust Micro-Ultrasound Prostate Cancer Detection	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_013 'Unsupervised' Tesla Robotaxis will achieve operational capability across 25-50% of the United States by end of 2026 — initial production slow but deployment scales to capture multi-trillion-dollar transportation market. Humanoid robots (Optimus) event... Elon Musk	Auto/Transport	15%
0.59	Learning Where to Look: A Reinforcement Learning Framework for Robust Micro-Ultrasound Prostate Cancer Detection	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	A Stationary-Distribution Theory for Triplet-Based Plateau Search in Random Forest Ensemble-Size Selection	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.59	FDA NDA220073: ELIQUIS (APIXABAN) — BRISTOL	fda 2026-06-24	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-09	SPC_006 Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual revenues exceeding $20 billion — internal cash flow essentially eliminates SpaceX's requirement for public market capital and funds high-risk developme... SpaceX	Space	88%
0.59	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-06	242_037 China will land on the moon before end of 2030 China (government)	Space	46%
0.59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-12-10	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.59	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-10	232_052 Lowered interest rates will drive AI agent and robot purchases instead of hiring. Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	46%
0.59	LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 4 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	39%
0.59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	242_005 Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day) Peter Diamandis	Space	49%
0.59	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.59	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-01-07	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	42%
0.59	LoL: Karmine Corp vs SK Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.59	Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.59	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-30?(market prob: 37%)	polymarket 2026-04-17	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-30?(market prob: 37%)	polymarket 2026-04-17	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	42%
0.59	Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5)(market prob: 63%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.59	Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.59	Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.59	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Austria win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 81%)	polymarket 2026-01-04	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.59	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-16	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.59	Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-21	241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.59	Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-30?(market prob: 40%)	polymarket 2026-04-17	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Best April 29 Earnings?	manifold 2026-04-29	242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.59	Will "LessWrong Shows You Social Signals Before the..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-04-28	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.59	Will I get a Gold Medal on USAMO 2027?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-04-28	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will ""Thinkhaven"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-27	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.59	Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day next week?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-04-26	230_003 AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	Will Liam mention female ‘tortas’ between April 24, 2026 at 12:00 PM and April 26, 2026 at 12:00 PM?(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-04-25	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.59	Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	20%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.59	Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.59	202604301048537199	gdelt 2026-04-30	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.59	anthropic wants a reset trump should think twice n4952343	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.59	article 8b95624c d5b5 561d ae7b 26fea635f3c2.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.59	usa wyniki gigantow big tech pobily oczekiwania lecz wzbudzily niepokoje o skale wydatkow na ai,1057510.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban	Economy	30%
0.59	google microsoft prove ai cloud driving ad reven.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	AI_023 Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stakes presentations using 'Dara AI' — a synthetic, agentic clone of the CEO that pressure-tests narratives and logic before human executive meetings. Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	95%
0.59	anduril palantir spacex cambiando forma estados unidos 20260430020434 nt.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	246_008 Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	62%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK07 Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)	—	18%
0.59	article ca552487 4402 5a81 b6d9 dc82aa416d0a.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.59	powells last pause a divided fed a frozen bill and bitcoins 250k bull case in retreat	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.59	Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2025-07-22	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.59	Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-21	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-21	241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.59	Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.59	Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will Monero trade below $300 during May?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-04-30	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.59	What is the green mop 2026 cutoff?	manifold 2026-04-27	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.59	Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	243_001 Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.59	Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-07-16	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%